Monday Thoughts

Had some problems getting on the site. Therefore this play has already started:

Phillies _136 (3units) & ARL +212 (unit)
Over 5 First 5 Innings -108 (unit)

Basically this was a fw things :

The NYM seem to struggle against LHP recently dropping 7 of the past 9 games against a LH. Moyer has been solid vs the NL in 4 starts this yr 8 runs in 30 innings. The NYM have a slumping a Wright which leaves really LoDuca and reyes as the toughest outs in there lineup against a lefty. Beltran just 263 but 8hr -37 rbi and Delgado 221 with 34 K's in 122 abs.

Just thought Maine was slipping past few starts and wa slucky to get away with a win in his last start. Thid time could be the charm for Philly here and thought this was a high price.

Night Games:

Indians -108 (3units) & -1.5 +187 (unit)

Over 9.5 +122 (2units)

Okay we always hear LOCATION , LOCATION , LOCATION preached in real estate and when starting a business. Tonite we apply that to this matchup. The Tribe have won 8 of the past 9 at home , Byrd has won 9 of his 11 starts at home(or Cleveland has won 9 of 11) , jays are just 2-9 last 11 meetings vs Cleveland. Here is the real kicker though Jays are just 19-30 on grass and Burnett is 0-4 with a6.23 ERA in these situations. He has 5 starts spanning 26 innings allowing 34 hits 22 run (18er) 5BB 22K and 5 HR!!

With those poor numbers is it not safe to assume we could see alot of runs. After all Byrd is 3-6 witha 5.53 ERA at nite (12-6 over record). Also 8-3 over at home. Both teams have tremendous OVER splits with totals of 9 to 9.5( Tor 17-10 over away & Tribe 22-10 over home). Tribe hitting 333 L10 against RHP and .290 at home off RHP!! So waiting to see if this drops to 9 runs and I will play the over then.

Over 9 +114 (holding out for 8.5)Chicago and Pitt (5units)

Pirates -144 (2units)

The way I see it we have up and down Ian Snell on the hill vs Chicago who will have Derrick Lee in the lineup. Snell has been hit hard in both meeting vs Chiacgo this yr. On the flip side we have Angel Guzman pitching @ Pitt and he has been rokced in his 2 away starts. so the question is can the youngster pitch on the road. Not to mention he has lost all 6 of his 2006 starts and seen 5 of the 6 sail over. Basically just fading CHIC away as Snell is 10-4(14-7) 3.90 ERA at nite (1.40 WHIP)..

Brewers +105 (unit) & Under 8 Fla-110 (units)

Late Night

Under 8.5 -103 Arizona & SD (3units)
Under 4.5 +101 First 5 Innings (unit)
Arizona -140(unit)

Playing Arizona based on SD 's record of 17-46 last 63 trips to ARIZONA! Oh and Zona has there ace Brandon Webb on teh hill and even with recent struggles he is 7-1 2.99 at home. he also lost a close friend in that plane crash tragedy yesterday so lets hope that motivates him rather then distracts him.

The under is based on Woody Williams throwing real well recently . Going 3-0 in 21 2/3 INN past 3 starts with a 2.49 ERA. It appears that he always pitches fairly well against Zona and has done so far this year twice 4runs in 14 1/3 inn. Webb as I mentioned has a 2.79 ERA at home and 2.99 in nite starts. Both lineups have there offensive issues lately and tough to get them starightened out here. The one cause for concern is both pens but I am hoping the SP go into the 7th inning at the very minimum.

LAD -177 (3units)

This looks like a crazy price to me and it doesnt stop going higher. This yr LAD has 6 hitters hitting 308++ against LHP and the team is 323 at home vs Lefties. Michalak hasnt started on teh road yet or since 2001 and that has to be cause for concern. The Reds are resting Dunn and have managed 2 runs in the past 3 games. Unfortunately they are 7-2 after being shutout which scares me. Thing is they havent scored at all on the road lately.....16 runs last 7 away games but games with 6 and 7 accounted for nearly all of them. Penny has been extremely tough on Cincy past 2 yrs(2 starts) and is facing a slumping lineup. LAD has an edge in the pen as well here IMO.

LA has faced 6 LH and went 5-1 since the Break, losing only 3-1 to Francis.

LAst 2:

Mariners -112 (2units)

Mariners are streaky this year and going to ride this wave...

Under 9.5 -116 Oakland and Boston (3units)
Under 5 First 5 Inn +106 (unit)

Oakland is 19-11 Under against LH and only has a few guys who hit well againstthem payton , Kielty and Kendall. Boston w/o a few stars starting a real thin lineup against a red hot Loaiza who has pitched nicely against them in his career.