Friday's Thoughts

At first glance I didnt see all that much I liked. Now a few hours deep and I am uncovering some things I do see a valueable. So going to try and do best to update you guys as to what I am thinking. Wont try and fnalize till half hour before start times. Just like that little extra time to adjust my unit sizes. Last 2 days I have had such little free time to 'cap' games and post its been extremely detrimental to my performance. If you asked me my fav plays of the past 2 days I would have said probably the only 4 winners I picked...Hous (wed afternoon) , Pitt and Under 10 NYM last nite along with the Yanks under. I have done a poor job spreading my units around(and "gamnling on marginal ideas') but I guess the good news is after an amazing Tuesday worst case is I gave back a few 'units'. It happens , rather it be because of my poor judgement rather then poor capping. I NEED to recap and update the past 2 days...wont happen till later on!

Here we go:

Under 10-123 Orioles and TB (5 units)
Orioles -170(unit)

This has to look like a strange play to some. Cabrera and Hammel and you want to play an Under? Well my first comment is I truly have no idea what to expect out of Hammel. I know he is a solid prospect who made a couple starts in April , one against BALT his ML debut where he was shelled. Hopely that fuels him here. He was sent down and posted average AAA numbers but a very solid BBto K ratio and K/per 9 inning ratio. Really cant see if he progressed as the yr went on.

Tist has me excited since Balt last 4 games really not hitting. It's understandable that when Tor is trying to avoid a sweep and they send out HAlladay that he shuts down there lineup . Its understandable Silva gets smacked around and the pen keeps BALT in check. Can anyone explain they lack of offense the past 2 games against strong prospects Matt Garza and Boof Boonser?? I mean 3 runs in 2 games at home....that leaves a great deal of hope for me with young Hammel.

Then we have TB, can someone explain to me when there PEN got so solid?? That pen did a wonderful job against TEXAS past 4 days. The key is the Devil Rays catastrophic collapse on the road dropping 15 of there last 16 all since the BREAK!. That one win a 19-7 trouncing of my Yanks. Now the sick part is 19 runs that day and 30 runs total the other 15 games. The MATH genius that I am realizes that 2 runs per but worse is the startling consistency they have shown.
Runs per game breakdown
@ Sea 4 ,1,0
@ Oak 2,3,1
@NYY 2,19, 0
@Minn 4,2,1,3
@LAA 5,2,0

Now Cabrera comes in off his best start of the year and lets face it we know Daniel Cabrera himself is his own worst enemy. Why? Simple command and control issues!! Last start vs TB he had 10 K's but 9 BB's! He has always been decent against TB in his career. This new TB lineup is real thin and YOUNG. Gomes is probably OUT and Branyan just traded to SD. We look okay with Baldelli , Upton and Crawford but 4 thru 9 is interesting.....Norton , Navarro , Lee , Cantu (slumping @ 244), Hollins and the dude with a Z -last name I cant remember right now. Balts pen also was fairly solid in the Minn series but here 's to hoping Cabrera can give us 7 tonite! Unfortunately dont have any UMPIRE INFO!

Rockies -151 (5units )

Again am I crazy? Colorado who has looked like ass dropping all those road games. Here's what I realized. Jeff Francis has quietly been awesome at Coors this season. You look and see 2.96 ERA at home but a 1.00 WHIP and only 46 hits in 70 innings!!! Damn! The scary part is he really buckled down after his 1st two poor starts in April winning 7 of the past 9 there and after the shaky start vs Texas. Past four at home 2 runs in 7 2/3 inn, 2 er (4runs ) in 7 inn(vs COL), complete game shutout and 5 inning 1hit no run performance!! Thompson does own 2 solid 6 inn starts versus COL thi syr allowing 3 runs but his road numbers arent so good. He was solid at Coors but his other starts were all 5 innings and one was 4 innings. A 1.73 WHIP and 5.88 ERA isnt impressing anyone.

SD is 13-15 vs LHP but really struggling of late verus them . SD won 1-0 vs Hendrickson and lost 5-3 vs Lowry on the recent homestand . Since the bvreak the only LHP they have hit wel is Hendrickson in Dodger LAnd were he has been awful!! This is all about SP for me as both have solid pens and soft offenses. Colorado has a significant edge with Francis who had his string of 6 straight starts with 7 + innings snapped in NY due to a bad 6th inning. LAD is also just 27-35 away this season and 1-5 in Zona .

7PM starts:
Indians +110 (unit)
-Based on what I see as a slumping Tiger lineup vs LHP and Sowers excellent pitching at home.

Under 5 First 5 INN DET-CLE -117 (unit)
-see Bondermans away splits and Sowers starts at home since his ML debut.

Under 8.5 -120 Pitt-Hou(unit)
-Two SP who dont get much run support. Clemens is really tough on Pitt dont look at the SEPT 05 start he was dead tired and Santos has his moments where he gives you 5 or 6 solid innings...lets face it Houston isnt hitting much lately.

Under9.5 -130 Philly and NYM (unit)
- Wolf was showing improvement till his poor outing last time out BUT owns good numbers vs NY. Also NY not hitting LH that well lately. Bannister was solid early in the season and has had more then enough time to get bakc in a groove in the minors. Cool damp nite as well.

Orioles -170 (unit)
Under 10 -123 Balt-tb (5units)

-see earlier comments

7:35 starts:
Over 9.5 -120 Wash and Atl(unit)

Really following a trend where when WASH opposes a LH starter recently the game is extremely high scoring. Ortiz has been rocked in 4 career starts vs ATL of 6 but the two solid ones have been at ATL which is cause for concern. James has been solid but a tad inconsistent and I am hoping that the second time around WASH gets better AB's off him and really both pens are inconsistent as well. The situation plays out where WASH hits better off LH's and ATL against RH's...

Marlins -118 (unit) , -1.5 runs +183(unit) , First 5 INN -116 (unit)

Basically both teams playing well of late but I am not taking much of the Brew Crew's streak...COL , HOU and PITT can the BATS get any colder. Fla can hit and there SP Bush realy struggles on the road in his career. Nolasco has been extremely soldi when he is not facing the METS or pitching during the day. Fading a 23-37 road team against a 500 home club who has the better SP.

8PM's

Under 5 -102 First 5 INN StL-ChiC(unit)
Suppan has been real solid at home this year and poor away which is a change for him. Last year he wa sreal solid against CHI but this yr times have changed. Mateo has impressed me with his early starts and was able to log 7 innings last time out. Truth is both lineups very relent on the long ball for runs right now and hoping the SP are strong first two trips thru the order.

Pre Season NFL

NYG -4.5 -106 (3units)

Jumped the gun earlier thinking this would never go down . Now that it has I am scared and curious as to why. NYG starter's for 3 quarters should cause hell but maybe its the NYJ preseason mystic Or the fact the jets probably really take this game much more serious.

Eagles -3-105 (3units)

Thinking they will continue to impress me.

Vikes -2.5 -105 (unit)

8:30 Starts

Rangers +110 (unit)

- Oakland only 6-7 against Texas which isnt very good when you see there record in divisional games. Zito IMO isnt that sharp lately and has really struggled more then not past 10 starts vs Texas especally in Texas. Just love the RH bats the Rangers can throw at you. The pen is weaker in Oakland now as well.

Over 9.5 -106 Min and ChiW(unit)

Like the fact that despite the over being 5-1 in Chicago and this matchup going over last meeting they still managed to drop the total a 1/2 run. Can Radke 'fool' CHI in consecutive starts? Are both lineups heating up like I think they are? IS JAvy going to continue his career long struggle vs Minny? many questions to be answered worth a roll of the dice IMO...

9PM starts

Rockies -151 (5units)

-see earlier comments

9:40 starts

Diamondbacks +110 (7units) , ARL +208 (unit) and over 9 -125(3units)

First why the over cause it almost doesnt make sense. LAD scored 4 times in SD and Vargas is pitching well of late. Except he get srun support and is inconsitent at home see a 15-6 over record. Then we have MAddux who just dont pitch well in Zona or versus Zona.

Why the play? LAD is 1-8 last 9 in Zona and 6-14 Last 20 versus them. Maddux is 1-9 in his career vs them and his team is just 2-9 last 10 starts vs them(0-5 near 6 ERA @ BOP/Chase). Simply put Maddux had some good starts after his trade but last outing wasnt so good and his away splits are medicore.LAD offense looking


Last...

Giants -108 (3units)

Under 5 -115 First 5 Innings Seattle(unit)

That;s it and Good nite