Day Card-
Yankees -139 (5units)
Over 9 -102 NYY& DET -102 (unit) now +110 (1 more unit)
This is much more riskier then it appears. Randy Johnson has been consistently inconsistent this season for whatever reasons..lack of velocity , poor mechanics , flat slider you name it! We have 2 SP on different ends of the spectrum regarding second half pitching and the months of AUG and SEPT. For as good as Bonderman is for some reason he falls apart come AUG 1st till the end of the season. The kid is 4-13 in 22 career AUG starts with a 5.68 ERA , 1.61 WHIP and .298 BAA!! This yr he is 0-1 in 5 starts the Tigers are 2-3 in those games but its usually his worst ERA month. Last yr 1-4 6.75 era , 2004 again 1-4 except only 4.31 era , 2003 was 2-4 6.68 ERA. Basically I have DET at 6-15 with a no decision I cant acoount for in 22 career AUG starts with no sign of improvement really. For whatever reason he also falters in day starts this season going 1-4 in 8 starts witha 4.94 era , 1.31 WHIP , .266 BAA compared to 3.14 , 1.10 ,.227 at nite. The wrench in this arguement is his 3.14 road era and 1.10 whip , 7-2 record! One thing for sure is he should face alot of LHB maybe seven tmrw and thats trouble for him: 276 LH and .218 RH. Also note that I mentioned in my WED thread DET just not playing all that good in the 2nd Half 24-21(10-11 away). They should have lost both ends yesterady but Torre is a baffoon.
Now Randy is no prize in day starts either....5-4 10 starts witha 5.40 Era. The real problem is I believe he has 5 day starts at home that he is 1-4 in meaning 5-0 away. How bout 24 innings ( never more then 6) and 21 earned runs , 29 runs!!! That does mean though on the road he has 37 innings and 16 earned. So hopefully nothing to that trend just victim of circumstance. Randy was 11-2 at home last year and only 6-6 so far this yr. A s mentioned his day splits not so good but his WHIP(1.23) and BAA (.225) tell a different story IMO. Really DET 's lineup hasnt faced randy much and hasnt had much success either against him.
Looking at the SP names you think 9.5 runs and immediately under pops into your head. Well DET is 29-12 UND against LHP despite a 30-14 SU record vs them. DET is 26-22 in day games but NYY is 29-18(thinmk 30-18 now).
Twins -1 Run -264 (5units)
Over 8 +101 (2units) now +115
Hate these damn RL's just to lower VIG! This is about Minny having there ace on the hill and needing a win to avoid the sweep. That ACE- Johan Santana has led Minny to wins in 9 consecutive starts and is 14-0 @ home this yr. Only 3 were by 1 run in that 9 gm stretch and they were all road stops and of the 14 wins at home only 3 by 1 run.
Santana is 41-9 post Break in his career and 20-4 in AUG witha 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He hasnt been so good vs KC this yr but all 3 starts were at Kauffman. One unnerving factor is Minnys sudden slump against LHP dropping 5 of 6. This year KC has NOT won 3 straight at anytime on the road but has won 2 straight on 7 occassions now. In 5 of the 6 they proceed to lose by 2+ runs(obvioulsy they are 0-6 with consecutive road wins). They are 19-42 L 61 @ MINNY. Minny is 31-5 and 35-7 when laying at least -200 at home. Twinkies have won 14 of past 18 day starts and Santana is 8-0 on Thursday this year. He is 25-2 when laying -200 or more and 24-2 @ Home vs losing teams. Now Miny isnt a great day team at 19-18 but KC only 9-31. Twinkies now 25 up against LHP after 1-5 stretch fare better then KC who is 10-29 against LHP.
A huge game for Minny and they clearly have the edge in the pen. WOuld probably play the OVER @ 8 runs if we get there. Partially because KC's pen is so-so and has a 5 inning SP on the hill but also KC is 23-14 OV against LHP and 25-14 OV in the day.
Under 6 Runs +100(now -111) First 5 Innings TB and Chi WSox (2 units)
Javy Vaquez is pitching much better in AUG allowing jsut 12 runs in 31 innings. He also is 3-1 witha 3.12 ERA in day starts. So while TB has picked up the slack on offense recently they still arent scoring all that mcuh away with there depleted , new look lineup. Hammel has been decent inthe 2 starts after his debut and was okay on the weekend. Baldelii and Thome appear OUT as well.
AL @ Nite
Under 5 +101 Toronto First 5 Innings(2units) & Und 9.5 -110 (unit) & Boston +117 +1.5 RL (unit)
A play based on the fact the Boston will face ROY with a depleted lineup. He should keep them in check and I think Tavarez for 3 innings and then tehe rest of the pen could do a good job here. It;s still Fenway and remember Toronto got swept @ CLE and is poor on the real stuff!
Orioles +120 (2units)
Basically we have Adam Eaton struggling past 2 starts after being effective. This could be some sort of dead arm period for him since his season started late. Last 2 starts only 8 innings nad 8 runs allowe dbut 21 baserunners! Theflip side would be Cabrera who has been decent against Tex in the past. Cabrera is unscore dupon in his prior 2 starts spanning 15 innings (10 hits and 5 BB to 17K's) . Patterson a nd Hernandez appear OUT.
NL @ Nite
Rockies -112(7units)
Think you have to ride the slumping Rockies here. Oliver Perez seemed to be slightily improved in hsi 2006 NYM debut but control still an issue. This guy was 0-5 (team 0-7) with a9.51 Road era this yr. Both teams are solid vs LHP with NY being 21-14 (24-9-1 OVER though) and Col going 13-10 (13-10 UND). Francis is 6-4(team 8-4) witha 3.32 ERA at Coors. Wasnt a week or so ago when Francis was a small fav in Shea against Dave Williams. Now you get him at home for that price.
Rockies hit .301 against Lefties at home compared to .254 for the NYM away. NY has done a great job of pouncing on the COL SP 1st 2 games but that should be much tougher tonite.
Under 9 -102 Stl and Fla (2units) & Under 5 -105 First 5 Innings(3units)
Marlins +112 (2units) (might go +1.5 -180 instead)
D-Train has been better away this year and receives little run support on the road. Thats how you twirl a 3.33 ERA and go 4-6 (team 4-10) (10-4 UNDER though). Luckily he faces a STL team struggling against LH see how Dave Williams , Scott Olsen and Richie Hill fared past week vs them(forget Les Walrond !). All season StL is 19-30 vs LHP witha .269 BA and 4.4 runs per. Now Suppan has been solid at the NEW BUSCH going 8-5 with a 3.04 ERA!
Under 8.5 -102 Milw and Houston (2units)
Struggling lineups and Fiedler appears to be getting a nite off. Home plate UMP has been a huge UNDER UMP in a few appearances this season. Davis is inconsistent on the road and especially at Houston alternating good & bad...thankfully its time for his good start at Houston(j/k). Brewers 15 runs last 6 games(10 last 5 ).
National +125 (2units) & -1.5 +220 (unit)
Astacio has been solid at home 3.47 ERA / 1.10 WHIP (4-2)and WASH above 500 against LHP. Wolf has managed to win his 1st 6 starts without pitching well( avg run support is 10 runs!!). This is the rematch of last week slugfest that Wolf held on for a 12-10 win. Wolf has been a 5 inning pitcher since returning from the DL as well. Think with price and Nats avoiding the sweep ( after a Robinson tongue lashing last nite) we have nice value. Myers and Hamels clearly much better SP were only about 20$ or so more while Astacio is probably on common ground withARmas and Ortiz when starting at home. Meeting in Philly was -165 as well....
Note fairly ODD IMO that the Under 10 has -128 vig since this was a 12-10 game last week.
CFB :(Thursday)
Central Michigan +12 -110(3units)
Under 42 -105 (unit)
BC graduated some key players and also has 5 quality players listed as questionable who probably wont play. CMU has a young QB but a solid defense which makes me think they will not allow him to do much and try and force a BC mistake or two. The Eagles didnt exactly score much on the road in 2005 and I expecting 20-24 here.
Jim Ramella
DE
Out Indefinitely (shoulder)
Andre Callender
RB
Questionable Week 1 (shoulder)
Tony Gonzalez
WR
Questionable Week 1 (hamstring)
Ty Hall
OG
Questionable Week 1 (neck)
Tyronne Pruitt
LB
Questionable Week 1 (hamstring)
B.J. Raji
DT
Questionable Week 1 (leg)
Miss St + 7 -110 (3units)
Under 40.5 -105 (2units)
South Carolina another team who struggled to put points up in 2005 on the road facing a solid defense. Muchlike CMU you wonder where the point swill come from Miss St. Thinking worst case this is 17-10
Nwestern ML -200 (2units)
Under 55 -102 (unit)
Miami Ohio is just flat rebuilding IMO( and everyone elses). The lost there QB , 3 OL starters and 5 of 6 linebackers from last year and now Murphy (RB) is probably out. Hopefully the Wildcats play an emotionally charged game for the late Randy Walker as well.
SD ST ML -135 (3units)
UTEP IMO just got more credit then they deserved last year and really played asoft schedule. Chuck Long takes over in SD and this is a mission statement type game.
I wish that we were full strength going into this game, but we`re not,” Price told the El Paso Times. “We`re leaving a couple of real good players at home.”
Over Iowa St and Toledo 55 -108(3units)
Iowa State is going to be remembered as a solid defense but they return very little from that group. Even with Toledo losing Gradowski they should still score some points here. Iowa St returns alot on offense and in the home opener against a MAC defense should put up 35+.
Kent St +14.5 -105 (2units)
After yrs of being spoiled by great RB's gone now are Barber and Malroney. They have lost 3 starting OL and while Cupito and his WR core return the Golden Flash have a decent secondary. Factor in the chances the running game is missing and the OL is trying to mesh on the road and wecould have a flat offense tonite from Minnymaking a 2 TD spread even bigger then it suggests). Kent St was awful last yr but thanks to all those injuries the youngsters developed experience. Dont understimate Minny recent success early on in past seasons inflating this number. As I said we are accustomed to watching Miny pound out of conference foes in past years but maybe Mason has a soft spot for his former employer.
Middle Tenn State -9 -107 (unit)
Really think that while Mid Tenn state lostto FIU last year we have to remember they lost a close game and were favored by -4.5 pts. That certainly translates into a Double Digit spread when playing at home. Mid Tenn returns 8 starters on offense but there defense took a hit with only 4 returnees. New coach should be huge motivation here and I think a little much is being made of FIU late 3 game run. They were only 1-5 away last yr and while they dont need to win I think its foolish to think they have a legit chance. Look at Mid Tenny schedule can they afford not to win thsi game>>
NFL PreSeason
NY Giants -3 -113(3units)
New York's starters will go 10 to 12 plays, coach Tom Coughlin said. New England's Bill Belichick hasn't said how much his group will play. He played only one starter in last year's preseason finale between the clubs. Real simple approach I see Coach Belichick just resting his gusy and waiting for week 1 and keeping the playbook s vanilla as possible.
Panthers -3 -108(3units)
Looks like Pitt could be 0-4. We should see alot of Shane Boyd and Charlie Batch tonite coupled with RB's Staley and Haynes who havent done much in the preseason. Panthers depth and especially at RB.
Phins (2units) CANCEL
Over 35 -102 Bills -Lions (3units)
Both teams deep at QB but not on defense.
Falcons -4.5 -108(3units)
Schaub , Shockley and Norwood are the keys. garrard didnt look good 2 weeks ago and 2 pass attempts wont change much after last week. Jones and TAylor arent playing leaving Pearman , Toefield and Drew. Jags first team offense didnt look good last week and generally I just dont expect much from Jax especially after suffering a few injuries recently they might really scale back.
Ravens -3+115(3units)
The Skins have looked awful! Plain and simple. Does Campbell and Collins do anything to inspire you? The Skins have had ZERO SUCCESS running the ball and now get that Ravens defense even if its the second team defense. Just dont see WAS scoring much and Baltimore has a former starting QB to take alot of snaps in Boller.
Saints -3 +100(3units)
The Saints have Jaime Martin and Todd Bouman batting for the backup QB job while KC has Casey Printers of CFL fame and Brodie Croyle just 1 of 9 last week!! KC also thin at RB and WR spots.
Cardinals -3.5 -103 (2units)
Matt Leinart...
Leans : Texans and Under , Browns and Under.
Early returns were solid....only that stupid play on the Minny Over 8. Didnt I just say Minny has struggled vs LHP and you knew KC wouldnt score more then twice!
Yanks -139 (5units) Win 6-4 (win) +5.00
Over 9 -102 (unit) & Over 9 +110 (win) +2.10
Twinkies -1 -264 (5units) Won 3-1 (win) +5.00
Over 8 +102 Minny (2units) Lost -2.00
Under 6 even WSox First 5 Inn (2units) Win 1-1 after 5 Inn (win) +2.00
4-1 +12.10 early
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