Sunday, August 27, 2006

Early starts:

Marlins -119(2units)

Indians -114(2units)

Royals (unit) +161

Over Cle & Det 9.5 -121(2units)

Over 10 KC and Tor +104 (2units)

Phillies +136 (2units) & ARL +208 (unit)

The real stuff is coming up:

1:35 start:

Pirates +109 (2units)
Over 10 +102 Pitt & Houston (3units)

With how Houston has been playing why would you want to lay money with them on the road? Then factor in that they dont have Clemens or Pettitte on the hill. What has Hirsch shown to date to be a road fav? Chacon has at leats been decent in 2 of his 3 starts. The exception was versus Houston but he also turned out to be hurt. Pitt is a 500 team at home and Houston is 28-37 away. Ensberg and Biggio appear to again be out of the lineups. Dont get me wrong Pits 12-33 day record or 4-16 Sunday record is alarming but Houston 6-13 as small road chalk doesnt help either.

2:05 PM

Under 10 +102 Chicago and Minny(2units)
White Sox -143 (unit) avoid the sweep and fade Silva away.

Always like to gamble that an extra inning affair followed by a day game is cause for a flat game. Factor in Mike reilly behind teh dish and his usually wide zone could be very helpful in sppeding up this game. Minny only .255 away aginst LHP.

3;35 PM

Under 10.5 +!06 LAA and NYY (3units)

Right now I think NY has really struggled against LHP. You go back to Washburn and Wells in teh past week looking real sharp against us despite not pitching extremely well beforehand. You go back to the Baltimore series and we struggled mightily at home versus Loewen and Bedard. Karstens to me looked okay in Seattle a bad pitch or two and that was it. His comfortable level should be ten fold here. NYY is 23-15 under against LHP and LAA wasnt exaclty hittingbefore this series believe just 4 of the past 14 games have seen them top 5 runs.

4:05 PM

Giants -137 (2units)

Kyle Lohse has been awesome since the trade BUT lets face it all he is doing is vindicating the people who argue theNL is now the junior league. Still even with his great performances as a RED I still envision him as just a 6 inning guy and that leaves the end of the game wide open IMO. Hey SF isnt exactly shutting the door late but Matt Cain is the story here IMO>. Cain has been extremely IMPRESSIVE in 5 post Btreak starts at home. How bout 35 2/3 innings ( 7,7,7,8 2/3 asnd 6) , 25 hits , 8 runs , 9BB( 4 in the 1st start) 36 Ks and 2 Hrs allowed! Cincy still just 5-15 past 20 day starts.

Over 9 -123 LAD and Zona (3units)
Zona +110(unit) and ARL +200 (unit)

Billingsley has been real solid but the kid has struggled somewhat when he starts in the day ( but only 3 starts). BAsically he is 5 or 6 inning type starter on the road even though he went 7 strong earlier at Zona. The LAD pen has to be thin with the past 2 games. Going on the premise he is not used to day baseball and wont be his sharpest and LA has a thin , overworked oen. You have an UMP that has an over BIAS avg 11 per when he calls a game. Livan is an innings eater but usually even a good day he is allowing 3 runs. because he is a contact pitcher. Wants to throw strikes and challenge hitter s buthas so-so stuff.

Nite cap:

NFL PreSeason

Texans +5.5 even money (2units)

Basic approach here is that after last week's Bronco bloodfest to many people will see this team as being better then it really is. Tenn just isnt anything more then a bottomfeeder right now and your saying well what are the Texans then??. Now Houston is a roster full of talent and possibly now the direction to do something with it. Huge game for Kubiak obviously playing against his former employer and mentor Mike Shanahan.

Denver is always scary with the depth they show at QB and RB but Texans defense is greatily improved and they have already defeated KC and won @ StL....not so shabby IMO!

I'll take a shot with the points thinking Houston wil be crisp here as the players try to impress there new coach by playing hard for HIM in a game with some special meaning for him.

Rangers -106 (3units)

Yes , this has alot to do with the rangers avoiding a sweep. However Padilla has been effective vs oakland this year. until recently he was pitching well at home but two awful starts vs KC and LAA saw his home ERA ballon fron 3.87 to 5.01!! Haren has also been inconsistent when he travels as seen by his 3 extremely ROUGH outings in his last 5 away starts. So his road numbers dant look so good but they are in some manner skewed as well. He has been up and down vs Texas in his career and hasnt seen them since a great April start. Personally I think after being extremely lucky to win his last outing where he was shelled in Toronto the universe will even itself out and Haren will take the LOSS tonite.

Cubs +1.5 +!25 (2units) & Cubs +172 (unit)

Now this is a few angles here. First fading the Cards vs a LHP since they are 3-9 against since teh Break and scored just 29 runs in games started vs LH. Then we have Weaver on teh hill who has led his team to wins in just 3 of 10 home starts and has been terrible in his home parks this year. Chi has been tough all year on STL and even this series. No one knows anything about Walrond tonite but these are teh guys that suprise when they have zero expectations.

Under 9.5 -110 ChiC& StL (3units)

basically as I said StL just not scoring against LHP. Think it was 29 runs in the 12 games started vs LH and that included what they got off the pens. Rich Hill and Dave Williams have kept them in check the past few days. Malholm and Duke shut them down in Pitt. The bats havent donemuch to speak off the past week and less against LH. ChiC in a nice funk as well scoring once in 2 games here. Past 10 games they scored 3runs or less seven times. Rolling the dice again with poor SP!

GL

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Sportsnut, where are you? no plays in 8 days. Hope everything is ok.