Wednesday Thoughts

We start our day off with a RECAP of the Tuesday post:

Orioles -106 (5units) Won 6-3
Orioles 1st 5 Innings -110(3units) Led 5-1
Tigers -114(3units) Won 4-1
Under 9.5 DET -113(1 unit) 4-1 final
Blue Jays -147 (7units) Won 4-3 , sorry 10JQKA!
Over 8 TB and Texas -103 (5units) PUSH
KC +126 (1unit) Won 5-2
KC -1.5 +220 (1unit) Won 5-2
NYY -141 (unit) Lost 6-5
Under 10 +102 NYY and Sea (1unit) Lost , tied at 5 .

Astros +110 (1unit) Lost 14-0 , best way to lose never close!
Under 9 -103 Stl and NYM (1unit) Lost , 8-7 Final
Brewers -134 (3units) Won 4-1
Under 10 Cubs and Phils-112 (5 Units) Won , 6-3 Final
Padres -151 (7units)Won 1-0

Yesterday 10-4-1 +33.02 Units

7 Units (2-0 +14.)
5 Units (2-0-1 +10.)
3 Units (3-0 +9.)
1 Unit (3-4 +0.02 )

WED Day GAmes:

Astros -135 now -150( 5 units)

Even I will keep this simple. You have Oswalt pitching on extended rest due to a bruised hand a mild concern for me. Not the hand really more the long layoff bewteen starts . So its Oswalt the ACE of the staff (co -ace whatever) facing a spot starter who hadnt pitched(started) in the majors in 5 season who happens to be LH which Houston actually hits well against when they are on the road. Oh yeah Oswalt is 15-1 lifetime vs Cincy and Pitt hit Michalak hard last time out plus his grandmother passed away .

Houston looked like shit today and should be ready here after a 14-0 trouncing. Again real simple logic a #1 SP facing barely a #5 SP ....Houstons pen is bad but Cincy's is really shorthanded due to injuries. Houston will answer the bell IMO.......

Also Houston 16-10 against LHP and 17-19 in day games but Cincy just 22-30 in day games as compared to 44-31 at nite. Freel on the bench is a plus IMO as well. Silly trend note Hou 5-1 as road chalk from 125 to 150 and Cincy 1-6 as a dog in that range.

If the CHALK concerns you I dont have a problem laying -1.5 RUNS @ +105. However in the long run I dont see the value of doing that in this type situation. All you are doing is reducing your vig and your chances of winning there isnt a better payout. If I win and I make these decisions thinking I will win I get 100 x 5 or lose pay 150 x 5. The RL pays you 105 x 5 to risk 100 x 5.....generally NOT a smart decision.

GL- more to come but probably not many

Night Edition

Houston took the first one 7-3 and you ever just feel good about something....well I do concerning my comments about the Cincy pen. Short on time so quick comments only..

Orioles -111 (5units)
The Orioles are just playing solid baseball and have hit RHP extremely well all season long at Camden. Garza is a young pitcher with an extremely high ceiling who is getting accustomed to the majors. His ML debut he was said to be visibly nervous and his performance was POOR. The next time out he was much better but pulled after 5 innings. So the question becomes do they have a short leash with the kid expecying only 5 or 6 innings and how will he handle his 1st road start?? The lack of innings isnt a huge concern because Minny pen is so solid but anytime IMO you depend on your pen for 4 innings your looking for trouble.

Lopez has continually improved and I believed turned in about 6 or 7 real solid starts at Camden. He pitched well in Minny recently and versus these guys last season. As I stated yesterday the O's pen ...NOT SO GOOD outside Ray but the good news is Lopez has gone into the 7th and 8 th innings in all but 1 of those recent home outings.

Minny scored 4 or less in 8 of 12 (5,7,7,7, in the others). Lopez last 7 starts at home: O's are 5-2 the losses Balt scored 1 and 0 runs. They spanned 48 1/3 innings 49 hits 18 runs 17 earned 5BB 30K's 7 Hrs(4 in 1 start vs NYY).

Tigers -107 (1unit)

The White Sox just continue there major offensive funk!! Miner isnt someone I trust but for some reason he has been sharpest in his nite starts 6-1 low 3 ERA. Garcia has defeated DET 3x this year and recently beat Miner in Chi. I just dont see Chi putting many runs up early and 7th-9th innings the Tigers have a huge edge.

Under 10.5 -108 KC and KC +!33 (1unit each)

Really just think this is basically the same setup as yesterday. So reread my thoughts from Tuesday.

Havent looked at the late starts yet and for those who cared leaned Oakland but didnt play , leaned under First 5 TB and TB but stayed away.

NL

Nationals +126(1unit)

Personally I am concerned Scott Olsen is hitting the wall lately. Fla's middle relief is inconsistent and not to be counted on IMO. The NAts hit LHP very well and nearly 280 on the road. Armas has struggled vs FLA and away recently but IMO is pitching well of late.

Under 9.5 +105 STl And NYM (3units)

Traschel is pitching fairly well recently and I could see a 6 inning 3 run stint and then turning it over to a bullpen throwing very well. Mulder is the wildcard here , what can we expect?? One thing for sure is the NYM are struggling vs LHP lately see Traber HAmels and Wolf...Not to mention a 255 BAA at home vs LHP and Wrights sluggish 2nd H. When healthy Mulder looked great earlier in May vs NY but again where is he at now??

Under 8.5 -110 Atla and Pitt (1unit)

Hudson is back to his old form IMO. Snell has been real solid away all year. The Pirates haven't hit much on the road , in previous trips to Atlanta, and just all yr in general...4-3 game

Over 4.5 +111 Milw and Col First 5 innings (unit)

Kim has a 7++ERA away and Sheets hasnt looked good past few outings. BAsically hoping one guys gets hit real hard...

Thats it for now , maybe more later....Have a Hoops game.