WED Thoughts

Last nite was one fuck job after another. First I cant even explain how many leans that I passed on that won....Phillies , Braves , over Braves , over Cubbies , Mets , Over WSox , Under A's and the beat goes on. Then how bout the MILW pen allwoing a 7 spot in the bottom ofthe 8th inning whne I have the under...it was 1-0 after5 innings. Same carp in Texas O's pen allows a 5 spot in a 4-3 game in the bottom of the 7 th. Red Sux lose 2-1 and I was dead wrong about those totals being to high in Wash and LAD. First real losing day...

Early:
Yankees -173(2units)
Under 9.5 +100 NYY and DET(3units)

First with NY we have Wang on the hill. The kid has been consistent , after a rough outing at home vs LAA he bounced back with solid efforts and wins. he is 6-1 since the break (NY is 6-2 when he starts). NY has won seven of his 9 day starts even though his ERA is higher at 4.48. He has gone UNDER 10 of past 12 at home as well. Yanks should benefit from 2 days off after west coast trip.

Det has Robertson on the hill who is 3-4 during teh day this yr and improvement to prior seasons(just 1-7 lastyr). Career his numbers are 8-18 6.13 ERA inthe day and 4.04 ERA At nite. Thats why I dropped the size on the total. The key I think is Robertson has been very effective on LHB .176 BAA and 0.70 WHIP.

Tigers started AUG 6-1 buthave tailed off and dropped 13 of 19 , 7 of 10 and are only 23-20 since the break. Wang had won 8 straight starts at home before the LAA start. I think the fact that the STADIUM will be empty today with the early start and bad weather helps keep the game atmosphere flat.

Pirates -124 (2units)

Probably looks weird to see Victor Santos as a favorite but he actually was favored a few times vs CHI in 2005. Truth is CHI is reeling at the moment. Just when it cant get any worse it does. They couldnt hit in StL losing 2-0 and 2-1 which the pen blew. When they finally did on Sunday thetre pen blew it late again witha walkoff GRAND SLAM. On Monday there SP gets rocked again and yesterday with xtra innings they again had to call on the pen which blew it again.

Cubs have dropped 9 of 10 and start a guy who is basically only giving them 5 innings a start maybe 6...enter tired pen. Santos has had success vs CHI in his career. Since 2004 when he was a Brewer he has made 9 starts vs them. In those starts he has one poor outing to speak off. His 1st start 0f 2006 against them. Now his day numbers stink but we are overlooking that. In 9 starts vs them he has on seven occassion gone at least 6 innings and allowed no more then 3 runs...one other start was 5 inn and 2 runs. Based on his recent starts and career record I am comfortable expecting a 6 inning 3 run stint from him and hoping the pen can hold on for a 5-4 type win.

Red Sux +132 (2units)

Zito was filthy last time out and how could I fade him? Zito is pitching much better away then at home this year....4-6 4.57 ERA @ Home and 10-2 2.87 Away. He also owns a 5 career ERA against Boston and yes this is Boston-lite but it still says Red Sox across there uniforms. Zito has allowed 21 runs in 21 2/3 innings in his past 4 home starts( three of which he lasted only 5 innings)

The key is Curt Schilling always put forward a top notch effort when his team needs it and they clearly need it here . Boston hasnt scored much pat 5 games think just 7 times!! Schilling not a ssharp on the road as a t Fenway still managed to go 7-0 in 9 starts in 2004 (2.71 ERA & 0.86 WHIP) and is 3-2 witha 3.72 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season. Sox won 16 of Schill's past 20 day starts.

Three key batters in the Sox lineup wil be Cora as hitting 414 against LHP this yr , Kapler 7 /25 lifetime against Zito , Pedroia for all his 3 -25 he is 2-5 against LHP , Pena whoi s 5/16 off Zito with 2 Hrs and has 8 career Hr's vs OAK his former organization. I say this because they have success in today 's situation whether it be vs Oak , vs a LHP , or against Zito. These replacements have been the down fall of Boston as they have provided ZIP! in Manny and Ortiz's absence! Really want to play this heavier but I need to be cautious here!

DBacks -131 (2units)

Never a big fan of backing rematch SP's. This means that on 8/18 this guys squared off and Vargas won...I feel its tough to beat the same SP let alone the same team in a short period of time.

Basically a SD fade here. Thompson hasnt pitched well on the road with a 7.50 ERA in 6 starts and allowed 47 hits in 30 innings. SD hasnt played well in ZONA losing 47 of 65 there. Vargas isnt anything special but has authored two great games against SD this season @ Petco...7 shutout innings and 7 innings allowing 1 run. Last yr he was decent in two starts going 6 allowing 3 runs both times. Think if we see a 9.5 total down from 10 runs the over might be the play as well even with Iassagona behind the dish.

NL leans I am looking at SFG +130 , Cincy +116 and Fla +119. AL thinking Texas -144 & Cle -163

Night:

Indians -171 (2units)

Fading Toronto on grass , with Marcum pitching and because Sowers hs been so solid at home.

Under 10.5 -108 NYY and Det(unit)

Both pens got rest in Game 1 and basically all this is a continuation of my thoughts yesterday and today except the SP isnt as strong but we get 10.5 instead of 9.5.

White Sox -1.5RL-116 (2units)

Think TB has now lost 19 of 20 since the Break on the road and all but 3 hae been by 2++ runs. Garland has been fantastic past few starts and facing a depeleted TB lineup it should continue.

Rangers -147 ( 2units)

Marlins +123 (unit)

along for the ride.

Giants +130 (2units)

Was all set to play the under til some huge money came in on the over which moved the total from Under -119 to Over -121 in about 3 minutes....

Well looks like I blew my nice start.......Had a few minutes to cap the games that started at 7 or 8 and seems I rushed a bit!

Reds +121 (3units)

Under 4.5 First 5 INN -108 (3units)

Under 8.5 -102 game (2units)