Tuesday Thoughts

To make this blog run smoother I think I should do two things. First start the post off with a recap of the previous day and second use a UNIT system to rank my plays . So I will use a system that has 1 unit , 3 unit , 5 unit , 7 unit and 10 unit plays.




Here we go:
Orioles -106 (5units) now -108 & 1st 5 Innings -110 (3units)now-113


First we have to take a look at the Twinkies SP Carlos Silva. Yes, the guy has shown some imrovement but how could he get worse? This year opps hit .333 against him whether they are LH or RH!! The Road numbers are eye-popping in 10 starts ( 3 relief apps) 51 1/3 innings allowing 90hits 51 runs (48 er) 11BB 23K's and 15 Hrs. It gets worse when you look at his starts in fresh air (outdoors splits)..38 2/3 Innings 72 hits 42 runs (40er) 14Hrs 8BB 14 K's 9.31 ERA 2.25WHIP and .422 BAA!! Amazingly Minny has won 6 of his last 7 starts since the break including all 3 road starts. As I said he really isnt pitching better though as he got 35 RUNS of support in those 3 games . The numbers are 15 2/3 innings 29 hits , 12 runs (11er) 3Hrs 3 BB 5 Ks in 3 starts. How bout 62 runs in the 6 wins and shutout in the loss by a LHP!! Now you see my angle.....Loewen is inconsistent like most youngsters but has been fairly solid at CAmden and even versus the Yankees. Durng there revival Minny punished LHP but with White out again they have struggled lately vs LH's. Last 4 starts vs LHP were Cliff Lee 5 inn 8H 2 R 1BB 4 K , Downs 5 Inn 4 H 0R 1BB 1 K and 3 scoreless innings by LH relievers , Lilly 6 inn 3 H 0 R 2 BB 3 K and scoreless INN by a LH reliever , Robertson(White played) 7INN 7 H 3 R 3 BB 2 K and ZERO Hr's in those games. Not the offesne Silva is used to getting and certainly alot less then he needs looking at previous starts.

Orioles hit .297 at home versus RHP and have played extremely well past 6 games vs Boston and NYY. A bullpen meltdown away from sweeping the Yanks at the Stadium and a CY Young stopper away from embarassingly sweeping the Jays. Minny only .257 away vs LHP. Now Loewen in 6 starts at home has faced NYY(2) , Oak , wash , Sea , Tor. Really in only two of those did he struggle somewhat and both times vs Sea and Tor it happened in the 6th and 7th innings. He was shutting out Seattle but they touched him for 5 runs in the 6th and 7th and vs Tor he left with the bases loaded and 1 out but all 3 inherited scored(of the 5 he allowed that day). So there is definite confidence in this kid thru 5 innings but he wavers in the 6th and on and Balts pen isnt so good and not nearly as solid as Minnys. So we will have to look at playing Balt First 5 Innings as well(PK -105).

Tigers -114 (3units) Under 9.5 -113 (1unit)

Well as you can see the total moved alot from Over -110 to under -120 which makes me soften my stance on it somewhat. As I really like it for 3 units but I hate feeling the whole free world will be making that play and no one will take the over.

Like DET cause of a few things , Rogers has been solid at home winning 9 of 11 starts and pitching extremely well vs Chicago this season and in recent seasons. The White Sox lineup is in a major funk outside of Konerko and maybe even Citron and Ozuna in limited roles. he rest of the guys are struggling some. Rogers has had good indivual sucess against this CHI lineup as Konerko is just 8 of 31 against him with one HR this season. Like that Rogers has allowed just 3 XBH in 3 starts versus them as well. Both SP have had there struggles lately but Rogers seems to be improving more then Buerhle who has had his road woes lately. Chi is struggling with LHP while DET really is improving against it lately around 290 L 10 games. Plus there arent mnay slumping Tigers bats. DET gets the edge in the pen as well. Really with CHI not hitting and likely IMO based ob Buerhle's track record away this yr that he allows 4 runs or so and not sure Chi can equal or better that.

Blue Jays -147{7units}

First thing that stands out is Toronto facing a LHP.....327 clip at home! Then I look down a see 8 guys hitting at least 281 against LHP and 6 above .312!! Halsey carer wise allows RH to bat .304 against him but this yr has turned the tables some with RH hitting .269 and LH .302 which could be due to his extensive relief work...as he probably comes out of the pen to face LH and hasnt done well in those spots there fore he was demoted to AAA(just a guess)

Burnett has been solid at home and loks like he is in a grove especially since he pitched well at TB and Minny his past 2 starts. The Jays pen has the edge now as they are pitching well of late and oakland is w/o Street . HE has won 5 of 6 st home and pitchd wel there except versus Philly. It would be great to see the roof closed ashe has been excellent indoors so far but he is tough on RHB which is bad news for Oakland who comes in struggling vs RH.

I find it interesting that Payton , Kendall and Thomas are the only regulars hitting 280 off RHP. A power pitcher like Burnett should keep them in check though. Guys like Chavez 250 , Kielty .234 0Hrs and Swisher .242 21 hrs are struggling with Righties. I expect last nights debacle to be a wakeup call ike it was for DET on Monday not an extension of the A's run.

Over 8 -103 Texas and TB (5units)

Okay an AL game with an 8 TOTAL??? Padilla does pitch well on the road but is still only going to be around a 7 inning -3run type starter and he has received solid run support on teh road. Texas hitting LHP very well lately and yes this is KAzmir but he has thrown just 5 innings twice in the past 2 starts!! Your not getting Kazmir at his peak but the total reflects that. TB is going to be cautious with him at this point and I wouldguess he doesnt make many starts that last more then 6 innings. He has looked good but 87 and 89 pitches are what he has tossed. He gets ZERO run support but the balance i sthat Texas faces the tB pen for 3 or 4 innings . Come on 23 hits and ONLY 7 runs last nite....that has to change!

still working....noticed Orioles are -106 now LOCK it in go both First 5 and game if you want!

Act II:
Royals +126 (1unit) & ARL +220(1unit)

This has been a series where the road team simply cant win and CLE isnt a very good team away from the JAke. There pen is still in disarray and while Lee has been solid he is stil basically a 6 inning SP. He has a 4-0 record @ KC but he hasnt pitched exceptionally just good enough to win. KC has hit LHP well athome (287) and Cle is struggling some against LH now. KC has shown some late inning strength lately and Perez IMO is getting into a groove throwing theball much better . he has a decent start at the JAke under his belt vs these guys and today I think they pullout the WIN.

Under 10 Seattle and NYY +104 & NYY -141 (unit each)

Felt that yesterday NY's bats would continue to cool off and I think the process continues. They face a SP they havent seen backed up by a solid pen. You have to wonder if they will be flathere after flying crosss country and playing @ Fenway. Thing is Seattle is frigid right now and acknowledging there season is over and making changes....they may just be playing out he string! Seattle has scored 13 runs past 6 games and 7 came in game!!

NL

Astros +110(unit)

Yes, they cant hit but Cincy isnt doing much beter lately. While I presently suprised by Lohse NL transformation he has still managed to lose his 3 NL starts despite pitching extremely well. Now that he is favored wouldnt it be funny for he to get shelled and lose........

Under9 -103 Stl and NYM(unit)

Would have been niuce to see this stay at 9. Weaver has pitched better on the road and is doing nicely past few starts due to mechanical changes. MAine has been real solid at especially tough at Shea. Both sport decent pens and banged up lineups....

Act III:

Brewers -134(3units)

Maybe I am a SUCKER but have to like Capunao here in the 7/30 rematch , dont you?? Great track record pitching versus the Rockies and loves his Miller Park. All Cook has done is watch his team lose 13 of his previous 16 starts. Oh yeah they hit 254 away vs LHP....

Under 10 -112 Philly and Chicago(5units)

Again this screams out at me. We know Chicago has really struggled vs LHP and they lost Itzuris now and Barrett is questionable. Philly lost Rowand and probably Utley as well. Moyer this and Moyer that........they Covers editors who wrote there article dont make much sense....Moyer could struggle in the NL and away from Safeco. Did they research his 3 starts vs the NL this year ....damn good! 27 innings 15 hits and 5 runs !!The only road venues he struggled at were the lineups that slugged LHP...Chicago sure doesnt. Philly only 242 away against LHP and 236 at home for Chicago. O'Malley an unknown was solid as could be at Houston.........roll the dice with the pens and hope the starters do there job. Payback for last nite ...for under backers

Padres -150(7units)

Peavy hasnt allowed to LAD 2 score miore then 2 runs ever at Petco. He has returned to All Starform lately and always pitches well vs LAD. Hendrickson is just a question mark. He seems to pitch better on the road and has looked decent in 2 career starts vs SD. SD has alos won 9 of 10 vs LAD. Although they didnt hit LHP well if peavy holds them to 2 runs oir less even 3 runs I am very confident in my play.

Havent looked at the last games in the AL & NL but interested in the dogs, might be back with something!! Good Luck