FRIDAY Thoughts

Well short on time as the Cubbies start at 2:20 but Thursday was fairly solid especially in baseball!

Day Baseball

Under 4.5 -114 (3units) First 5 Innings

Staying away from these disastrous pens!

Real simple: Lowry pitching extremely well in August (his career best month) and has been fairly consistent on the road despite a 4.50 era. Cubbies do struggle to put up runs against L:H's despite solid stats in that department. A career 2nd Half stud!

Hill also throwing extremely well 7 earned runs in 28 AUG innings not includinmg Coors. Coors is like pitching on Mars I hardly ever use those stats in my capping. SF really poor against LHP. Durham is there big bat and he left thegame with a back strain yesterday. I bet he is only playing cause of the importance of the game so there key hitter looks less then 100%. Bonds is resting as well. Really after that its about Hillenbrand and Alou and Shea hasnt hit all that well since the trade but improving of late.

Like the Cubbies here but will pass!

It seems lately that I cant get the dam ntotals right! Basically had teh Cubs game pegged thinking Cubbies and Under 8 but went First 5 Under cause of 2 horrid pens! It seems that the unders I loselatelt are all pen related and I play a first 5 and I lose but it goes under!!

NL
Phillies -135 (5units) & -1.5 Runs +144 (2units)

This is all about Jon Leiber and fading Villareal and the 5 innings or 75 pitches he wil throw tonite. ATLs pen has been shaky recently and that is certainly a plus for me when I see a converted reliever starting. Then we have Leiber who's home splits look like hsit till you dig a little deeper. In 11 games athome he has been solid 8 times but the other 3 starts were BEATINGS that skewed his nunbers. In the good 8 he went 60 inn , 57 H , 24 runs (23er) , 7bb 36K and 6 Hrs. The bad 3 were 13 innings , 29 H , 22r (21 er) , 2bb 10 K and 7 Hr!! Last month he pitched well backing a recent trend for him . In AUG he allowed 10 earned(14 runs) in 36 2/3 innings. The past few SEP he is 9=1 with a 2.43 ERA in 12 starts and to day folks is SEPT , 1st!!

Villareal was real sharp his 1st two spot starts but unimpressive last time out vs Wash lasting but 3 innings. Again ATL's pen is shaky right now and Leiber has held the Jones boyz to 17 for 78 lifetime with 4hr and 11 Rbi plus a nice 2bb to 17 K ratio!

Think 10.5 is alot of runs here especially with this awful weather but will stay away.

Houston +112 (3units)

Could it be the winners of 6 staright are flying under the radar and a home doggie?? It appears that way to me. Glavine returns and appears to be okay after the blood clot scare but has had 16 days inbewteen starts. Glavine has struggled as a MET on the road and even in 2nd H of the season (except last yr). With Houston picking up momentum and winning 6 straight 4-1 against LHP and 19-11 against LHP this season.NY is also playing well and 20-15 vs LHP.

Wandy is almost as big a question mark as Glavine here. Wandy sort of has Jon Leiber disease. A few bad outings really wrecking his home numbers. With Wandy its only 2 awful starts skewing his numbers and I think getting skipped might have lit a fire inhim. I say that cause he was sharp in an relief appearance on 8/29. Take out Wandy's 2 horrific outings and he is 56 2/3 Inn , 57 H 25runs(23er) with 21 bb and 32 K's .

Also think 9.5 runs is high here but nothing on the under yet!!

Under 9.5 +105 NY and Hou(unit)

Brewers -139 (5units)

This is rematch from last week when MILW was swept in FLA and Capuano lost 4-3 to Sanchez. Capuano has been terrific athome this season going 10-2. Whats more impressive is his 11 quality starts in twelve. His 2 worst outinsg were vs Pitt 5 Inn 11h 6 r 2BB 4 K and early on when he went 6 1/3 INN 3 H 4runs (3er) with4 BB and 7 K. Yes that how good he is at home that 4 runs in 6++ innings is his second worst home start. Nine of the past 11 jome games have dropped UNDER the number .

Sanchez has been solid as anyone could hope for. With just 2 bad starts which both happened on the road nad during teh day...at nite he numbers have been damn solid! Now factor in Cabrera should be less then 100% and FLA is 15-20 vs LHP. Despite MILW lack of offense they were on teh road and FLA streak came at home. Looking at how to play the UNDER thinking the First 5 Innings (again).

Under 8.5 -101 MILW (3units) & Under 4.5 First 5 INN -109 (unit)

Pirates +1.5 -105 (2units) & Pitt +222(unit)

Cards continue to struggle against LHP and Duke did 1 hit them recently. FActor in Carpenter only 9-4 athome despite his solid pitching. reason being lack of run support. After dropping 3 staright starts the Cards have rebounded to win his last three. Factor in those 6 starts he faced Cubs 3 x , Cincy 2 x and Milw talk about slumping bats!!! Shot in the dark sort of but has merit. Shocking again thinking UNDER or First 5 Innings Under.

Under 4 -108 First 5 Inn(1unit) STL

Dodgers -155 (3units)

Jennings doesnt have much luck pitching in LAD and Colorado has just slumped miserably on the road. LA is team of streaks and now that they are winning again time to ride the wave I believe. In 7 games at LA the Rockies have ot topped more then 3 runs in any of them and managed 13 in 7 games! Rockies 5-18 away since the break....

Not suprising again think UNDER or First 5 Inn

Under 8 -112 LAD (3units)

AL

Blue Jays -125(3units)

Two slumping squads square off agian. Boston needed Alex Rios to boych a fly ball outinto a HRto actually win a game. Now they face the struggling Ted Lilly who has done extremely well as a visitor in Fenway. He has won his 3 last starts there and has 5 solid straight outings there. Over all 10 runs in 32 1/3 innings there but he hasnt been good at all recently. I am overlooking his recent starts and weighing his past history more. Especially since Boston struggles vs LHP and again has a depleted lineup.

Yankees -169 (3units)

No bullshit here its the Carlos Silva ROAD fade. He is 3-7(4-8) away with an 8.49ERA! minnys bats have quieted down and any time I can fade a DOME team in bad weather I will do so. The Minny bats have been silient of late and they need Johan to bail them out at home vs KC. Giambi probablhy wont play and Rivera might not be available....those are our 2 biggest negatives. Hopefully the 7 LH bats do enough damage to keep us from having to need someone close this out. Twins jsut 3-13 last 16 in NY and have lost 27 of 36 against NY.

Devil Rays +102 (2units)

SHields has held his own and lost 2-0 recently at Seattle. Meche has tsruggled past 6 weeks outside of teh Boston start and dropped career starts @ TB. DRays are 34 -31 at home and M's well below 500 away and 5-17 last 22 away. Thought Under as well but passed.

Really want to play DET( and suprise th eunder 9) but after that NY series I have lost alot of respect for how good that lineup really isnt.

Under 10 -110 KC and Chicago Wsox (2units)

Seemed abit odd this total saw some under movement so I checked it out. Hernandez is the giant killer cashing in 3 of hios past 4 styarts al as +200 or better dogs. he pitched well in all those games and generally he and Conteras as 1 of 2 things good or awful. Here is hoping for good.

CFB-

Fresno State -12 -110 (3units)

A new QB for the Bulldogs but I think Nevada is Jekyl and Hyde when talking about home and away. Nevada really doesnt travel well and will have to play at one of the toughest venues in CFB on openingnite against ateam seeking revenge. Huge defensive difference here. How many times do you see Fresno as less then 2 TDs home favs? Remeber they were about 16 pt favs @ Nevada last year.

NFL

Bengals -3-110 (5units)

With Palmer playing they just have a superior QB edge IMO. Colts never look to win in thepreseason under Dungy IMO.

Jets -5 -110 (3units)

Philly appears to be resting everyone! Al l starters plus Stallworth and Feeley dont appear set to play. Its abattle for the #3 spots on the depth chart in Philly and a chance for Ramsey to erase all doubts. The 31 total says alot about this game

Be back in abit to finalize some stuff. GOOD LUCK