Thursday Thoughts

Wow! What a disaster last nite was. Everything that could go wrong , did! Honestly I feel the need to apology cause I think with limited time I rushed my decisions and it showed. You can see early on my AL leans all hit and would have paid nicely. That's life. There is ALOT of work that goes on behind this and even I msut remind myself of that. Again sorry for that fiasco!


I wil recap when I have a moment. Have to run out and will post the nite slate around 4 or 5 PM. Will be heading to the Mets game @ Shea tonite(leaning heavy on that under 10 and StL)

Day Games

Tigers -116 (1unit)

What a tough matchup and rematch from 7 /18 when Garland won 7-1 thanks to Robertson falling apart in the 6th and7th innings. It's probably a definite Thome will miss this one. What I see is a White Sox team that just isnt hitting LHP very well of late. Robertson has been consistent al year and especially at home. Garland has been up and down but real solid past 2 outings which is a concern. Also Garland has led Chitown to wins in all 8 of his day starts despit a high (near 6 ) ERA! At first glance I was thinking the under but it dropped from 9.5 to 9 and last meeting it was 10 Und -120. So the value has somewhat ben taken out. Also as I said Garland poor day splits means this could very easily be a 5-4 game.

Rockies +122(1unit)

I am asking myself why back a team who has dropped 9 of 10 away and 17 of 22 while scoring 3 runs or less in 15 of them. Its about Josh Fogg , who would have thunk that? Fogg as pitrched solid ball vs MILW in his career including a 1-0 defeat at Coors this year and has pitched solid at Miller Park. Both offenses are strugling just Colorado has taken it to a new level. Ohka is somewhat inconsistent but usely solid at home. Tough game just think COL really needs this one . That doesnt mean they will win but its a huge game for them right now. Really like the UNDER 8.5 +104 as well but passed.

Cubbies -103 (1unit)

Zambrano throwing the ball well past few and really was strong against Philly last year 17 innings 1 run. Lets be honest CHI has sent out Rich Hill, Ryan O'Maley and Angel Guzman all talented youngsters but nothing in the realmof Zambrano. HAmels has been extremely strong past 5 starts but he has faltered in day starts and dropped 3 of away for his Phils. Chicago facing a LHP is a huge concern but I look for Ramirez and Murton to be the key here. Suprisingly I think the over 7.5 -105 looks interesting. First you have questionable pens. Second youhave Hamels getting tremndous run support leading to a 11-4 over record and Zambrano hasnt been his sharpest in day games.

Act II: Night Games

Wow , agin short on time and I was a big puss and missed some ez plays...Phills and Cubs over plus I was lovin Cubbies but sacred.

Pirates -115 (7units) & Over 9 -116 (unit)

For some reason I really like Pitt here. Could it be the 32-30 home record or Houston 26-36 away record? The scary part of this play is the fact Houston is something liek 16-10 vs LH and Pitt 8-33 , yes Pitt is 8-33 vs LHP!!! Worse they lost 9 straight at home when a LH started and are just 4-14 at home vs LHP. Good news for the over though they hit 312 at home vs LH and the over is 11-6-1 against LH's at home. There lineup is filled with RHB who hit LH well NAdy 346 , Sanchez 471 , J.Wilson 302 , Bay 313 and Paulino 341. Wandy Rodriguez justseems lost right now and didnt do anything in his call iup start from AAA to change my opinion. The good news is he has really struggled against RHB's this year. Well Hou 212 L10 against LH and Pitt 320. Hopefully Pitt's momentum carries over from winning past 2 down in ATL!

Under 10 -113 StL and NYM (7units) & StL +107(3units)

The scary part is STL hits 296 on the road vs LHP and is facing journeyman DAve Williams. Looking deeper in 5 starts against LH since the Break the Cards are 0-5 worse is they have been shutout twice , scored 1,3,and 4 in the others. Williams was decent in his Met debut vs the weak hitting Rockies and went 5 2/3 innings allowing 3 runs but they had just 1 thru 5 innings. Marquis is so unpredicatble its ridiculous to try BUT he is either real solid or awful not much in bewteen. MArquis has been pretty good past 2 times out but has struggled allowing 4hrs of just 6 hits. BAck in MAy Marquis was real solid against NY going 7 2/3 innings allowing 3 runs. Last year he was excellent vs NYM in two starts, 15 INN 11H 4r 3er. Marquis a native Staten Islander is probably always extremely focused when facing hsi hometown club. Williams actually has faced StL twice this season and four times last year.

Dave Williams (R) Previous Starts vs. St. Louis where 6 inn 2er , 6 inn 3er (twice) and 6 inn 5run. This yr rocked at STL 6runs in 3 INN but rebounded with 6 2/3 and 2 runs. The starts he has made in his home parks this yr have been real solid.

Ed Rapuano behind the dish 17-10 Under and 8.50 runs per!! Also small home favs (under 140) are 6-18 when he calls the game.

Really no opinion on SF and Cincy. Milton has been much better away as a RED and Hennessey falls into the same category.

AL

Los Angeles Angels -138(unit)

Manny should be OUT here. Beckett has really struggled on the road nad had no command last time out. Jered Weaver has delivered more then promised and looking for some revenge after Boston won against him.

Yankees -155 (3units)

Scary ROAD Chalk. Randy has led NY to wins in his last 4 starts , L5 away and 8 of 9 away. He lost a 3-2 gem earlier to Meche and went 8 strong. Last year he pitched well in 2 starts vs Sea allowing 3 runs in 15 innings (one start at Safeco). he is 94-37 lifetime in AUGUST with 16 shutouts .

Washburn has been real solid vs NY but this yr LHB are really a concern for him. The new Yankee lineup is very LH heavy and that 306 BAA and 1.67 WHIP could spell trouble. Seattle only 254 against LH and NY 283 but ARod might sit again. NY is 13-7 away vs LHP. Basically Sea is in a major funk and NY is on fire. NYY 16-7 L23 meetings.

Under 9 -109 NYY and Sea(3units)

Both SP with success against there opponents. Jeff Nelson behind the dish is 17-8 under with 9.15 per game. Silly stat of the day Sea 25-9 under on Thursdays prev 34 games.

Royals +163 (unit)

Redman seems to be soldi when he faces Cleveland and Sabathis seems to struggle at KAuffman Stadium. KC is hitting LH much better recently then Cleveland. Lets see if they can make up for the fiasco yesterday.

Over 9 -111 Texas and TB (3units)& Over 5 -115 First 5 INN (unit)

Leaned on BALT , Under KC

Pre Season NFL

Carolina -4.5 -108 (unit)

GL