Tuesday Thoughts

Let's get right to work after a solid Monday nite.

Under 9.5 -102 NYY and DET(5units)

We have two solid and fairly consistent SP's squaring off tonite at the Stadium. Which BTW should be cool and possibly damp. Wang loves the Stadium going 9-2(11-3 when he starts) with a 2.97 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Ten of his fourteen home games have dropped under the total. He was shaky in his lone outing vs DET this year but I believe the situation aided that. NY was trying to complete a 4 game sweep in DET and lets say that I believe the cards were stacked against Wang even before he stepped on the mound. Wang and Robertson both have better NITE splits this year as well. Robertson has performed better on the road posting a 3.79 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Outside of 1 rough outing @ NY a few years back Robertson always seems to pitch well against us and Wang was tough on DET in bothg '05 starts. Both teams can call upon strong bullpens as well.

The Yankees havent hit LHP all that well IMO since the break. Giambi 's numbers are down vs LH this year and we added Abreu to the mix. Bernie busted out the other nite butI take that with a grain of salt as Saunders has been complaining of a tired arm lately and we couldnt hit him earlier at the Stadium...see those freaky things happen in 'sweep' situations. Recently I have watched Loewen (twice) , Bedard , Wells , Washburn , even Chen pitch solid games.

For trends the Tigers are 47-2 UND @ nite , 72-43 UND on grass , 16-9UND in AUG . They have scored 5 runs or less in 10 of 13 and allowed 4 runs or less in 8 of 13. NYY is 23-16 UND against LHP , 36-25 UND at home , 20-3 UND when favored bewteen 150 and 2000 @ home . Hopefully RAIN doesnt interfere with the game.


White Sox -209 (2units) & -1.5 RL -102 (unit)

Usually I dont bother with high chalk games unles I take the dog. However I just cant seem to figure out what TB is doing right now. There battling injuries and working in more new young players. They have dropped 18 of 19 on the road since the break and despite consecutive 1 run losses they still managed just three 1 run losses in this span.

The White Sox for some reason have trouble with LHP(Dye ,Crede and Konerko..what's the problem??) but Fossum has trouble on the road. This year he sports a 7.11 road ERA and last year he was 2-7 away. In 50 2/3 Inning awayhe has allowed 43 runs in 10 starts,so expect the recently improved(hopefully overworked) pen to get alot of work. Garcia is 6-3 with a 4.28 ERA at home but has had some recent difficulties with TB. This TB lineup is abunch of new faces with limited abs against Freddy. The key out is Carl Crawford first for his hitting ability second for his SB threat(Garcia can be run on think 32 of 33 successful SB attempts). rFeddy's last 3 at home vs NY , Tex and Det span 21 innings 18 hits 7earned (8runs) 5BB 17K 2Hrs. Taking the team fighting for there life.

Under 10 +106 Texas and Baltimore(3units)

Now this is something that I sort of uncovered and wasnt looking for. Both teams are struggling offensively at the moment ...Rangers 3 runs (exactly ) in 6 of the past 7 games(the other was 4 runs). Past 11 games they have scored bewteen 2 and 4 runs on 9 occassions. Baltimore since its 15-0 win last week has scored 23 runs in 7 games. Now both SP don't exactly pitch well in these situations (Lopez away and Millwood at Arlington) BUT they have solid track records vs the opponent.

Lopez in 2 home starts and one road start(2004 -2006) has gone 18 innings and allowed 6 runs in three low scoring matchups. Millwood has allowed 6 runs in 21 innings the past 2 seasons including 3 runs in 15 inn this yr. He also spun a CG at Arlington versuis BALT in May.

Mariners +122 (2units)

Sometimes you have to think like a day trader and just ride the momentum wheter it's positive or negative! Seattle is just flat out HOT after being ICE COLD. Washburn is facing his former team for the 5th time in 2006. He has led the M's to wins in three of them but lost @ LA last week while Jered Weaver has been filthy twice against SEA shutting them down(once was last week). Hopefully seeing Weaver twice in a week will be somewhat helpful and Washburn can make the proper adjustments. Washburn has pitched extremely well recently at Safeco.



Really leaned heaviest to Minnesota before passing. Just hate that chalk with a youngster versus a guy who was an ALL Star a month ago. Garza is legit though and should keep this team in check. There in no reason to attempt to make sense of Boston and Oakland . The other Game Tor and Cle was interesting. You dont know how healthy Chacin is and you have a Tribe team who is just as bad against LHP as Tor is on grass!! Thought over but hoped for 9 runs.

working on the rest....pouring down the Jersey Shore now

Under 9.5 -127 Wash and Philly (3units)

Throwing all the stats and trends out the window. Basing this one one angle. I think this number is set to high for a game in Washington. Myer and Armas dueled last weel and the number was 10 and that was in Philly and they battled in Wash earlier in the season and that game it opened 8.5 went down to 8. Now we get a full run more!

Nothing on the Pirate total as I passed.

Marlins +112 (unit)

Reality is we dont know what is up Mark Mulder. hell he didnt pitch well in rehab so the beating was no suprise in NY. Olsen was slumping for awhile but gets a StL lineup who still isnt hitting very well against LH(unless I count Les Walrond!!). Same deal as Seattle riding the momentum train.

Under 8.5 -123 Houston and Milwaukee (3units)

Basically we have two slumping offense with deplted lineups due to injury. We have Oswalt who has been filthy last few starts at home . Oh and Oswalt before his lackluster April home start vs MILW had 4 starts vs them at home spanning 32 1/3 innings allowing 3 runs....check that Brewer lineup again. Houston with its own offensive woes also doesnt hit Ohka very well for some reason. This yr 1 earned run (3runs) in 12 innings of work.


Change in plans........

Red Sox +115 (2units)

Had to step back and think about this . Boston has Josh Beckett on the hill and is +115 versus Kirk Saarloos!! I know people wil rationalize it with but NO Manny , Ortiz or Pena. Absolutely true otherwise it would be Boston -130 or so. Beckett was -175 at Fenway vs Zito and -110 @ Oakland vs Zito....think about that. The red Sox lineup is thin but its still a very hittable Kirk Saarloos. Dont get fooled into looking at last nite games as some sort of barometer. Loaiza has been filthy for awhile now and is much better then Saarloos.

Beckett's last 3 road starts are very solid 6inning outings allowing 1 ,2 and 3 earned. he has 5 road starts of 7+ innings and 3 runs or less and 4 more starts of 6 innings and 3 runs or less. He has 2 medicore starts of 6+ and 7+ innings where he allowed 5 runs and 3 absolute shellings that skew his numbers. Those 3 outings 9 2/3 innings and 22 earned runs allowed!! Now realize he has allowed51 earned in 82 road innings......so the other 11 outings 72 1/3 INN and 29 earned which drops his ERA into the high 3's.

As I now deeply regret not playing the Pirate Over I also much mention and I could be wrong that I feel the books have dropped the line in the Met/ rockie game to get people thinking and draw some Rockie money IN. It's a conspiracy theory alright but that what I think.

Late Nite:

Diamondbacks +109 (unit)

I guess I dont believe that Chris Young is healthy right now. Also dont see why you would lay chalk with a Padre team that 17-47 last 64 @ ZONA.

Under 9.5 -108 LAD and Cincy (5units)

Now I have had some weird ideas tonite but this as my strongest play seems the weirdest. I just dont get this total @ 9.5. Hendrickson has not received much run support as a Dodger and despite alot of ridicule he really hasnt pitched that badly. Milton has pitched better away since joing Cincy and just dueled Maddux at home but lost 3-0. LAD didnt hit very well off Michalak last nite so why would I expect Milton to get shelled here? The Cincy lineup right now is Griffey , Encarnacion and Phillips

Thats it for now working on the last of the nite games. GL