NBA Thoughts on Wednesday Nov . 15th

Plays ~
Cavs -11.5 -110 (4x) WIN
Under 105 -108 1st Half Orlando (4x) WIN
Under 194 -110 Indiana (5x) LOSS
Under 197.5 -105 NJN (3x) WIN
Knicks +3.5 -110 (3x) +135 ML (1x) WIN(s)
Under 189 -110 Det (5x) LOSS
Pistons -7.5 -111 (3x) LOSS
Spurs -11.5 -108 (3x) Spurs -11 -110 (1x)LOSS
Under 188.5 Spurs (7x) WIN
Kings -8 -110 (5x)
Philly +4.5 -105 (5x) ML +175 (1.5x)

ML Parlay (6x) pays 6.13 Loss
Kings -385 , SPurs -900 , Pistons -340 , Cavs -865

1st halfs-
Over 90.5 -122 Cavs (1.5x) Win
Over 103.5 Wiz -118 (1.5x) Loss
Det -4 -113 (1.5x) Loss

2nd half
Magic ML -205 (2x) WIN
-Have this game middle Orl -3 and Nuggets +5.5 as well....
Over 106.5 -114 Wiz (1x) LOSS
Boston ML +114 (2x) WIN
Under 99 -111 NJ (2x) WIN
Det -8 -105 (1x) WIN
Over 94 -115 SA (3x) WIN
-hate the way the 1st H ended way to much offense
Under 91 -102 Sac(2x)

NCAAB -(real slow start this season)
Vandy -1 -111 (4x) Loss
BYU +12.5 -110 (3x)

Team Totals

NYK over 104.5 -115 (2x)Loss

Philly over 102.5 -112 (2.5x)

Under 88 -104 Char (1x) Loss

Over 99.5 -118 cavs (1x)Win

Under 90 -105 NO (1x)Loss

Over 93 -108 Kings (1x) Win

Under 84.5 Mem -109(1x) Loss

Comments to follow..

Portland @ Cleveland - The Cavs have owned portland last few meetings. Right now the offense in Portland is Zach Randolph there really isnt much of a second option. This leds to alot of teams pulling away in the 2nd Half. Cavs righted the ship in NY after a sloppy game vs Boston. Although CLE has been up and down this year you would expect a better effort and focus after the last home game here. Blazers played in Minny last nite and were blown out from the start. Damon Jones finally got on track in NY and hopefully that continues. Who will cover King James? Thinking 105 -90 game. Cavs must hit there FT's!!

Denver @ Orl - With all the talk on ORL even I saw value last nite when it was -3 -110. After playing it I figured we see -3.5 maybe -4 but no way -5. Really shows how FLAT DENVER is expected to be . To be honest I like ORL to win but would NEVER lay this spread so I will middle my -3 with +5.5. Orla wants to play half court basketball and while they have scored alot at home how long can they shot 54 %? They dont even average 70 shots per game at home. Denver is Anthony and some inconsistent players on offense in JR Smith , AndreMiller , Lil Earl Boykins and Marcus Camby. Just expect a much slower pace then expected cause thats ORL style.

Ind @ Bos - Had liked BOS cause of how well they play vs IND at home winning 7 of 10. Now this is the highest total in 10 meetings bewteen teh clubs many which played UNDER . Underdog is 12-2 ATS and UNDER is 9-3 past 12 meetings.

Milw @ NJN - I really want to play NJ here who is playing 4th in 6 nites against Bucks on b to b. Villaneuva is OUT and this team lacks depth to begin with especially offensively. With RJ out the NJ defense suffered vs Seattle. Would love to take NJ here but hate fading teams missing stars only means more shots for Redd....

Wash @ NYK- Wiz dont play much defense and NY doesnt either. How NY is the dog. Wiz could light it up from 3 point land since NY cant seem to defend the long ball. However WAS does lack a post presence and this should be extremely helpful to NYK defensively. I think they finally get that home win here. There bench is playing very well it just need Marbury to come out of his shell which Steve Francis supposely spoke to Starbury about.

NO @ Det - Peja get sback on the court quickly after his career performance. I am sure that makes him hapy. However with West OUT the offense doesnt have much to speak of especially playing in DET....and Chandler is also out

Char @ SA - I think Bobcats struggle to score here. Its well known how poor SA is ATS on back to backs but thats why this line is only -12 IMO. SA has handled Charlotte in the past and both are off back to backs. This has 99-84 written on it

Memphis @ Sac - Right now grizz hitting just 39% away from the field and Sac allwoing slightly better then 40%! Hard to believe Memphis can crack 85 points and tehy have been handled there last 2 road games until they forged huge 4th quarter comebacks...

Philly @ Seattle - The Sonics defied odds winning ATS in all 5 games on a East Coast trip. They have just the 1 day off from that week long trip and have been a busy team. Phillyhasnt played since Sunday and has a history of playing well in Seattle going 5-0 ATS and 401 SU last 5 years. Think this is a tough spot for Seattle and Philly being rested certainly helps.

College Foootball This Week

Plays ~ (2-0 +9.80 on wed)

Thursday
Akron +6 -108 (3x) L
Under 52 -110 Pitt (2x) Loss (weather is not an issue why line bounced back to 53)
Under 28.5 -116 2ndH (2x) , Pitt +7.5 -130 (2x) ML +280 (1x)

Friday
Northern Ill +3.5 -106 (5x) ML +150 (1x) Over 48 -109 (3x)

Saturday (Noon)

Boston College -6.5 -120 (6x) Win
Iowa +3.5 -117 (3x) Loss
North Carolina +5 -109 (5x) ML +180 (1x) Win (s)
Over 39 -112 Syracuse (5x) Loss
Cuse ML -105 (2x) Win
Baylor +21 -110 (1x) Loss
Over 46 -105 Wisky (3x) Loss
Buff +38.5 -105 (2x) Win
Over 57 -105 Purdue (4x) Loss
Purdue -12 -108 (4x) Loss
Over 44 -104 South Carolina (2x) Win
Over 53.5 Navy -110 (5x) Loss
Navy 1st H -17.5 -113 (2x) Win
ML Parlay Auburn-127 and Miami ML -161 (3x) Loss

Halftime Notes :
Unfortunately I decided to not play the Overs in Minnesota and Kentucky or Mich State all whic looke good early.

2nd H
Cuse PK -113 (2.5x) Win
Purdue -4 -121 (2x) Win
Penn State -9 -111 (2x) Win


1Pm
Northwestern +3 -115 (5x) ML +128 (2x) Win (s)

2Pm
Florida State -16 -105 (6x) & Under 44 -109 (3x) Losses
Tulane -1-105 (3x) PUSH
over 68 -105 Tex Tech (5x) Loss
Army +29.5 -110 (3x) Loss
Ov 53.5 -105 Army (3x) Loss
Miss State +14.5 -110 (5x) ML +496 (1/2x) Win
Iowa State either +14 or +14.5 (3x) Win

2nd H
Under 23.5 -105 FSU (2x) Loss

3Pm
Rice +3 -115 (3x) ML +118 (1x) Win (s)

3:30 Pm

Over Oregon 44.5 -110 (3x) Win
Kansas ML -125 (7x) Win

SDST +18 -11(3x) +840 ML (1/4x) Loss

Auburn ML -119 (3x) Win

New Mex +27.5 -110 (3x) Win

THEE GAME - Ohio State ML -250 (3x) Ohio State -6 -120 (5x) Win /Loss

4Pm

UNLV +10 -105 (3x) , +9 -110 (2x) ML +350 (1/2x) Win

Over 56-105 Marshall (3x) Win
Idaho +10 -106 (3x) ML +350 (1/2x)Loss

7Pm

VT -105 (2x) & +100 ML (8x) WIN- After much thought here WF is getting to much praise. yes they have played above expectations but did so as a dog. This team was +17 at home vs Clemson now they are favored vs VT who won @ Miami as chalk? FSU struggling today vs WMU sp[eaks volume IMO....just like Maryland today the fairy tale ends as WF SHOULD NOT be less then +3 here

Under 38.5 -109 Wake (4x) Win

Under 55 -105 Louisville (4x) Win
Under 40 -105 Rutgers (4x) Loss (2pt conversion!!!)

Cincy +7.5 -120 (3x) Win

Over 41.5 LSU (3x) Win
Under 45 -105 UAB (3x) PUSH
Under 74 -107 Hawaii (3x)

SJST +24.5 +101 (3x)

ASU -4 -110 (3x)Loss

Leans -

USF +17 -102
Miami ML -155
Vandy +9.5 -111 (played 5x) but will probably middle with Ainge back.
SMU +6 / Ov 49.5
Utah ML

Team Totals -
Under 13.5 West Mich -108 (1x)
Over 19.5 -116 Iowa State (1x)
Over 35.5 -108 Purdue (1x)
Over 11.5 Temple -108 (1x)
Over 19.5 -116 Miami (2x)

Thoughts~
-Miami-Ohio @ BG - Looks like bad weather so while I like the OVER here I will pass for now. Give the edge to BG but just not crazy about this game.

-Akron @ OhioU - This is a tough game but felt it should have been a FG. Two solid defenses but Akron gets the edge offensively and has played some tough road games despite the poor road record. Akrons weakness defensively has been the pass and Ohio U probably cant exploit that.

-WVU @ Pitt - Would lean towards WV here but after Pitt lost @ UConn I have no idea what there mindset is. I think WVU has scored ta least 34 on everyone except ECU so look for that to continue even against a Pitt D that has played well. Pitt should be able to throw on WVU as did Louisville & Brohm. So hoping the total continue sto slide to around 51 where I will play the OVER. Last minute change due to weather concerns and the fact the BOOKS adjusted the total lower I played the Under here. Its my experience that when totals are adjusted for weather or injury you follow the move.

-EMU @ Kent- would probably entertain the over but really no reason to touch this game.

-Cent Mich @ North Ill - I would agree that CMU is the best team in the conference but that doesnt mean they deserve to be road chalk here. A disappointing season for NI sees its QB and RB Horvath and Wolfe playing there LAST HOME game. Think last time CMU won in this series was 1997. CMU on the road has only defeated bad teams like Toledo , Temple and EMU in OT. They made a game out of the shootout at Kentucky but also trailed 21-0 and 28-7 at times. I expect another high scoring game here. While I disagree Dr.Bob has made CMU a strong play and pushe dthe line to 4.

Saturday-
- Maryland @ BC - A string of tough games and narrow wins for Maryland has to have taken a toll as well as overvalued them. Offensively I dont see much from Maryland and this is a BC defense that has allowed 10 pts TOTAL at home in its last 4 games vs Duke , Maine , Buffalo and VaTech. From a defensive standpoint I dont see much from Maryland either that I like. Lets face it Miami ,FSU and Clemson are struggling offenses and this BC offense played well in Maryland last year so what has change? Dr.Bob has pushe dthis line to 8. Well basically I havent seen enough from teh Terp D this year to think they can slow BC or keep them under 24 points. Hollenbach has done a great job protecting the ball but will need to make some plays here. Bey had 2 long TDs last week and I am sure BC has noticed..

- Iowa @ Minny - Simply thought process here...Iowa 10-1 L11 ATS versus Minny and have the better defense. Iowa lost at home thanks to dropped passes. Can they fix that? We shall see..

- NCST @ UNC - Rivalary game where NC has won the past two. Wolfpack despite there last game have not played well on the road. UNC threw some costly picks last 2 weeks but also were position to beat both GT and Wake.

- Syracuse at home can move the ball alot better then it does away and UConns defense is below average and young. With DJ Hernandez at QB the Huskie offense can move the ball consistently even against a decent defense like Cuse. The young RB Brown looks like a stud in the making. Would think about Cuse here after a young Huskie team upset Pitt at home and is now traveling.

- Mich State @ Penn State - would think about the Spartans if Stanton started.

-Oklahoma @ baylor - Sooners are banged up but no interest in laying 20 even against Baylor.Though it be worth a shot on the dog with the OU injuries and possibly look ahead to Ok State the following week. Only crap road game for OU this year...

- Miami @ UVA- Thinking about the Canes here but HATE that UVA is off a road shutout.

-Buffalo @ Wisky - Last home game(and game) for the Badgers so while they might letdown due to a soft opponent and huge win in Iowa they should at least score. Waiting to see if I can do better then 38..thinking 42-10.

- Indiana @ Purdue - The Hoosiers are awful against the PASS and the Purdue passing atatck appears to have gotten on track. Most think Indiana can make this game but I am not sure and we know Dr.Bob has oushed this line to -12...

-Temple @ Navy - Especially on the road the OWLS cannot stop anyone and a gimmick offense might cause even more struggles. Navy has made huge strides last 2 weeks offensively and look for that to continue. Temple always seeems good for some late scores..

-Mid Tenn @ South Car - Type of game Spurrier NEEDS to destroy his opponent. So its SC here or pass IMO. Wins makes SC 6-5 with Clemson on deck. One thinsg for sure looking at the OVER as it appears it will slide some...

- Tenny @ Vandy - Initially played vandy +9.5 -111 but appears Ainge will start so I willprobably get off this game...

-Ill @ Northwestern- just think Illini as a fav is a fade 0-4 SU and ATS as chalk. Northwestern has played much better with Bachar at QB and if not for some early mistakes they could have gave Ohio State some headaches. They turned it over early and that was there death sentence.

-UL Monroe @ Kentucky- Have to like Kentuckyhere cause of there explosive offense but there defense leaves alot to be desired. So for that I am entertaining the over thinking we should do at least 42-14...

-Duke @ GT - who cares

-WMU @ FSU - WMU has struggled offensively on the road outside of Ball State and this FSU defense will be its toughest test. FSU should be looking to bounce back after being SHUTOUT at home and having Jeff Bowden resign as offensive coordinator. They should not be worried about FLA next week and a win pits them at 6-5.

- Mizzou @ Iowa State - simply cant take Iowa State + anything but cant lay 2 TDS on the road with Mizzou either.

- UCF @ Tulane - Without Kenny Smith I dont like UCF at at all... that leaves only Moffett or Israel. Ricard has good numbers (despite teh recnt benching)and UCF pass defense has so many mental lapses.

- Ok State @ Tech - Should be an offensive explosion. Ok State has allowed at least 30 points in all it sroad games and we know Tech can score. Ok State has the same offensive explosiveness whethere home or away.. Ok St allows 9.3 YPA through the air away and Tech 7.8 at home (8.3 L3 games )

- Houston @ Memphis - Th e tigers cannot stop anyone and expect 38 at least from Houston but with thetotal now at 60 its a no play..

- Army @ ND - Thinking over 54 but what scares me is ND keeping it vanilla versus Army with USC on deck. Still hard to imagine ND scores less then 38 here... Look ahead game cleary and took the points (late) and again a Dr.Bob play.....as he cites ND inability to cover big spreads under Weis

-Ark @ Miss State - Great sandwich spot for the Hogs. Huge home win vs Tenn with LSU on deck. Bulldogs off a bye and a win @ Bama...

-Utah St @ Boise - Johnson collapsed lung meansno interest

- ECU @ Rice - Almost have to ride a hot RICE squad here as a dog. A winless rice tam last season played well @ ECU...over 55 ??

- Tulsa @ SMU - looking @ SMU especially if I can get 7. They played a solid game versus Houston last week but collapsed late.

- Mich @ Ohio State - Have this line pegged at -7.5 so seeing which it moves before I act. think we see this -7 turn into -6 but only a guess...-6 I play the Buckeyes...

- Zona @ Oregon - Even a solid defense like the Wildcats will struggle to keep Oregon under 30 poinst at home especially after a loss. Tuitama actually gives Zona a QB.....

- Kan State @ Kansas- the jayhawks have played well at home only losing 4th Q meltdowns to A&M and Okie State while KSU is off the HUGE UPSET at home versus Texas. Young team tends to letdown after a big home win they travel the follwoing week.

- SDST @ TCU - While TCU defense is top notched the offene has been less then impressive. WIth SD showing improvement in recent weeks I thought this was closer to -14 then 17 or 18 pts....

- NM @ BYU - ALways a tight gameI think BYU finally gets inflated here. Have this at more like -21 but the concern is Porterie's health as he has sparked this team.

_ Wyoming @ UNLV - The Rebels palyed better then the boxscore indicates last week. Wyoming just doesnt show much offensively to think they can cruise over an opponent on the road. BYU just embarrassed them

-UTEP @ Marshall - The Thundering Herd has put up 40 past 2 home games and UTEP slowing UAB isnt inpressing anyone...expect a shootout here

- Idaho@ Fresno - An unimpressive win last week vs NMST doesnty change much for me. Idaho had played poorly past 2 but is off a bye week....

- vaTech @ Wake- play on the under sort of self explanatory

Tuesday Thoughts NBA & NCAAF -

College Football -
Ball State +5 -110 (3x) ML +183 (1x)
Under 56 -110 Toledo (5x)

NBA-
Bucks ML +105 (5x)
Under 199.5 -110 Miami (5x)
Nuggets +5 -110 (3x) ML +183 (1x)
Under 193.5 -105 Charlotte (5x)
Bobcats 1st Half +4 -102 (2x) ML +183 (1x)
Timberwolves -8 -110 (7x)
Over 88.5 -102 Portand 1st H (2x)
Over 189.5 -102 Dallas (7x) Over 95.5 -102 1st H (2x)
Rockets ML -110 (5x)
Under 198 -105 Utah (3x)
LAC ML -113 1st Half (3x)
Over 209 -105 Golden State (8x)

ML Parlay
Warriors -241 , Mavs -172 , Wolves -353 (5x)

NCAAB -
New Orleans +3.5 -107 (3x)
Det U +6 -106 1st H (6x) ML +300 1st H (1x) game ML +570 (1x) +12 -110 (2x)


Probbaly wont be around till late tonite

Monday , November 13th NBA & NFL Thoughts

Note: In attempt to solidfy my returns I have changed my unit system slightily.

NBA -

Plays -
Under 198 -105 Boston (2x)
Under 99 -101 1st Half Boston (2x) Win +2.00
Nets ML -143 (12x) Loss -17.16
- NJ sucks! I played this wrong should have went Sonics ML and NJ -3 to hedge it. Knew it was a dangerous game but Seattle probably will be the 1st team I can remember in 15 years going 5-0 ATS on a road trip..it happens...liked the over as well. I fell asleep at the wheel here..again . Makes you wonder why NJ was sleeping thru the 1st quarter...
2nd Half Over 99 -101 NJ(3x) & NJN -5.5 +102 (3x) Wins +6.06
Knicks +6 -110 (5x) Push& ML +210 (1x) (had posted Cavs in error) L-1.00

Over 209 -105 Toronto & Golden State on Tuesday (8x)

Team Totals
Under 102.5 -108 Cle (1x) Win(102) +1.00

NCAA
Buffalo ML +164 (1x) L
Georgia Southern +20 -110 (3x) L
Over 150 +100 Fordham (2x)
Greensboro +10 -110 (3x) ML +410 (1x) L
FSU -6-108 2nd Half (1x) W
Tenn -4.5 -123 2nd H (1x)

NFL Parlay
Over 37 +100 / Panthers ML -520 (4x) pays 5.54x
2nd H Car -7 -103 (1x)
2nd H Car -14 +365 (1x)
2nd H Over 17 -106 (2x)

Thoughts -
~ Orlando @ Boston - The Celtics have played poorly to begin this season but Orlando is playing its 3rd road game in 4 nites. Orlando historically struggles in Boston dropping 9 of 10 and 14 of 16 in Beantown. Boston jumped on the Cavs at home leading by 25 in the 3rd quarter and 19 in the 4th quarter but got blitzed by a 24 -3 run late and lost by 1. Wally World sat out that game being replaced by Delonte West. Both teams have put there opponents on the FT line about 30-35 times a game which can skew the team totals. Would wait to see if Szczerbiak is playing before making a decision as the offense is really limited w/o him. Would entertain the UNDER if he is not healthy enough to play. Hard to take ORL playing 3rd in 4 nites away in a place they dont play well. Grant Hill was given Sat Nite off and should be fine here. Magic have scored 100+ in 4 games but the other three were 82-88 points. The games the offense struggled they managed only 48-80 from the FT line. On the road they are just 19 of 30FT in 3 games. Boston is inconsistent from the FT line with 2 home games were they missed 15 and 11 attempts but also having two games above 75 % at home.

Play: Under 198 Boston

~ Cleveland @ NYK - The Knicks have looked awful in 2 games ta the Garden versus Indiana and SA. They played CLE well last year winning all three ATS and going 2-1 SU. Richardson had some huge games versus the Cavs. This year Cle has proven to be inconsistent following an up and down pattern defeating SA then losing @ Charlotte and at home in OT to ATL but smoking Chicago at home only to need a 20 pt 4th Quarter rally to defeat a Wally-less Boston team by 1. So right now road chalk is not something I see as value for them. Cavs have lost 3 straight in NY and are 1-4 ATS a a favorite. On the road Cavs have struggled offensively at just 88 points per while NYK has had trouble defending allowing 107. NYK struggles have been highlighted earlyby allowingteams to bomb away and hit 11 of 21 trey vs them @ MSG. With Cle shooting 4.5 og 16 away from trey they might not be able to take advantage. Cavs have put there opponents on the 34 times and NY gets to the line 32 times. NY has made 72 % while Cavs first two games they made only about 62 %. Cavs have taken 36 attemts per but shooting just 65 % while NYK has kept teams off the line sending them just 18 times per.

Play NYK +6 -110 ML +210

~ Sea @ NJN - These situational angles have destroyed my profits early. Finally the books have overadjusted these situations and I am paying for it. I was suprised to see SEA dogged in Char and ATL and they won both but I still playe d (and paid for)the home teams heavily fading a busy SEA team on a EAST COAST trip. Now they stand 4-0 ATS on this trip and its always been hard to go perfect ATS on these trips since I have tracked this. Two obvious things concern me here as I finally think the line isnt shaded high . Its RJ being out and NJ playing OT yesterday and 3rd in 4 nites. However this line is low IMO and I have to ride NJ here at home a place where SEA has struggled. NJ had a short trip to Wash yesterday and played at 6 PM. The extended minutes for Vince and Kidd are a concern but the increased contributions from Nachbar and Kristic ws positives. Sea playing 8th in 11 nites and last of the trip here. NJ allows 4.7 for 18.3 from trey and that is Seattles key on offense as they hit 7.4 for 19.4 away from deep. The Sonics have not shot exceptional well(44.8 %) but managed nearly 85 from the FT line.

Play : NJN & lean over

NFL - TB @ CAR

All the trends point to TB here but that is a huge leap of faith looking at the past 2 games and realizing they will be w/o 3 key starters on defense Wyms, Quarles and Rice. As well as playing a Carolina team off a BYE who blew an embarrassing game on TV at home before the BYE. Scary stat is that TB has scored only 7 1st quarter points all season and against a hungry team like CAR this could mean another defecit they will have to try and overcome. Carolina has won 6 of 7 versus TB but TB has covered the past 4 in Carolina. Now while it looks like TB came back down 20-7 at Half in the 1st meeting it took 3 Carolina fumbles to give TB there 17 2nd H points. So they got alot of help in that comeback including short fields twice starting at Car 15 and there own 49 and 39. Th eflip side is TB aided Carolina as well with 2 TD drives of 31 and 59 yards setup by a Simms INT and short punt. The FG drives were 8 , 21 , 34 and 58 yds for Carolina. An interesting side note is CAR is the team that ended Simms season with the beating he took that game.

TB offensive game plan is hard to figure. You have a young QB and 'stud' young RB in Cadillac yet they ran the ball only 12 and 8 times with him past two. Yes, theytrailed noth times 14-0 but that hardly has game over written on it. The TB defense did a good job against Tiki in NY and must do the same here. However Deuce did play well 15c 123yds and ATL ran for over 300 yards. Against NO they did a great job on pass defense limiting Horn and Colston to 7 combined catches. Eli also struggled 16 of 31 for 154 yards but it was a windy day. Vick was just 10-15 for 92 yards but they carried it 44 times for 306 yards bewteen vick , Dunn and Norwood. On teh road they have allowed 24 , 17 and 14 all solid numbers but again how do the key injuries play into this.

Basically I am real hesitant to lay 10 pts here but with an offense that has gone backwarsd lately you wonder how TB can score? The Panthers have looked worse at home losing to ATL and DAL plus playing close games to Cleveland and NO. They were so-so against the Dallas run attack and thats what TB needs to do here. Carolina is not without injury as Hartwig reinjured himself and is OUT tonite though he barely played in relief vs DAL. Lucas is battling a sore groin but appears ready to play amd DeAngelo Willaims could return as well. Best to stay away for now

NFL Plays & Basketball

Today-

KC Cheifs ML +121 (5x)L
Jaguars -10 -103 (3x) L
Bengals +1.5 -105 (5x) & ML +100 (3x)L
Over 48 -105 SD (5x)W
Browns +9 -117 (4x) W
Over 42 -102 Atl (4x) L
Titans +9.5 -127 (5x) W
Bills +12 -105 (3x) W
Under 45.5 -106 Pitt (4x) L
Eagles -6. 5 -120 (5x) W
Under 39.5 -110 NYG (10x)
Bears +3.5 -135 (5x)
Packers +5.5 -110 (3x) W
NYJ +10.5 -108 (5x) W
SF +7 -110 (3x) W
Over 46 -101 Det (3x)L
Seahawks -2.5 -110 (6x)
Cardinals +7.5 -120 (7x) L
Over 43 -106 Dallas (3x) L
Over 33.5 -105 Den (2x)

Team Totals
Ov KC 19 -123 (2x) L
Ov 23.5 Cincy -122 (3x) W
Ov 24 SD -115 (2x) W
Under 20 -123 NO (2x)L
Over 26 -120 Det(3x) L
Ov 18.5 -106 Zona (2x) L

Teasers
Eagles -1 / Steelers PK (8x)
Colts -2 , Jags PK , Eagles +3 (6x) L
Colts -2 , Jags PK , Broncos +1 (4x) L
SF +12.5 / Ov 40 (2x) L

1st Half
ML Browns +224(1x) Win
Under 22.5 +111 Indy (1x) Win

2nd Half
Over 21.5 -110 Det (1.5x) L

Basketball
Under 193 -110 NO (3x) W
Over 141 -124 Arizona / Virginia(4x) W
Over 183 -104 Houston (3x)
2nd H Over 101 Denver (6x) W
Wiz -6.5 -116 2nd H (4x) L
Over 104 -111Wiz 2nd H (3x)W
Under 198 -109 Sac (3x)
Under 188 -110 LAL (3x)
Blazers +6.5 -110 (5x)ML +225 (1x)
Over 188 -102 Dallas (5x)
Rockets ML +128 (3x)
2nd H Over 92 -105 Dallas (4x)
2nd H Under 98 -106 Sac (4x)

Quick Comment -
~Would love to be able to put more on this but the injury situation is a huge concern for me in KC with Waters , Wesley and Derrick Johnson. The value is to hard to pass up though but the strong line move towards Miami is unnerving...

~Basically the same with Jax really like the is game but because of continued injury concerns I have to be careful. Great revenge spot...

~Sd does not have a quality road win and I think Cincy is clearly still playing hard. SD defense is shorthanded...

~The Falcons are inconsistent and suffering through a ton of injuries in the secondary. Again if Frye didnt have a shoulder issue would be heavier...

~ This was a quick decision on Sunday Nite last week....Ravens ofense still hasnt improved and Tenny was short a fw key players whop should return...

~ Bills tend to be a live dog . Indy is off two prmetime games with Dalla son deck sort of a snadwich spot....think low scoring battle here 23-14

~Originally liked NO but with Horn OUT going back to the Steelers...

~Eagles 7-0 off a bye and have 3 starigt losses. Skins off fluke win at home beat Eagles twice last year....

~ This was two nice snags on the lines for me. Decimated NYG defense and both offenses misssing key WRs...

~ GB and Favre not a good dome team except they have played well in Minny last few visits. Offense cant stretch the field in Minny without Marcus robinson...

~ Thought that NE had played poorly in all 4 home games this year and NY off a bye while NE also off2 primetime games...

~Think SF can score on Det to keep it close even possible win SU...

~ Seattle at home is still dangerous and remember the Rams barely won in GB and Zona plus embarrassed at home by KC last week.

~No Glenn and Denny Green off they BYE (11-2??) plus Leinart much better at home , Fitz is back

Saturday Nite Thoughts -

Looking back on Friday what bad luck as NO blows a 25 point lead after 1 , Nets blow a 10 pt lead at half and Charlotte and Orlando blow small halftime leads and get blownout in the 2nd H...believe those were my only losses....but a negative nite cause of the size...basically washed out Thursdays gains.

Hawks -3-102 (15x) still line watching though ML now -140 (lean under 202)

This is definetly something I try to figure out the way to play cheapest. We have a HOT Hawks team who just continues to impress. They return home where they really outplayed Orlando and NYK already. What I love here is the fact its two situational fades butting heads for Seattle. First the Sonics are playing there 4th ROAD game in 5 nites and also 5th game in 7 days as they hosted LAL on Sunday. Starting on Tuesday they played in Miami , followed by a game in Orl on Wed and tonitee in Charlotte where they needed a huge 2nd H comeback to take command. Both Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis played about 40 minutes and all 5 starters logged 30 +. ATL had some key players play big minutes namely Joe Johnson but they also had a few days rest before this game. Its weird seeing ATL as a favorite but they were -4.5 when theyhosted SEA last year though they lost SU.

Thoughts-
Over 195 -110 Boston (4x)
-Thought Cle should be -8.5 so no play

Under 197 -109 Spurs (3x)
-Like SA -13 but no play yet

Minny -4 .5 -112 (3x)
- Lean to the Un 187.5 but staying off

Over 196.5 -114 Utah / Milw (6x)
-Milw has shown heart past 2 games with late comebacks but staing off a side cause the Bucks are desperate

Over 187 -109 Chi (3x)
-staying away from a side like the pacers but strange move to +7...

Suns -10-105 (7x)
-Suns finally get a team with offensive issues and they should not have a late collapse here. playing much better then the record...

Pistons +3.5 -104 (3x) & oV 196.5 -110 (3X)

good luck

Friday NBA Thoughts

Solid nite going 3-1 but lost the Suns Under...and talked myslef out of the Cavs. If I had some balls I would have pounded Over Cavs 2nd H and GS 2nd H yesterday.

Plays & Leans -

Charlotte Bobcats +1 -106 (7x) L
Raptors -4 -113 (6x) & -3.5 -105 (3x)L
Over 199.5 ATL -115 & Under 203 -110 (5x middle) xxxxx
Magic +5 -120 (3x) ML +165(1x)( now +5 +100 & +195) L
Ov 207.5 -110 Wiz (3x) W
Denver +3 -108 (6x) & ML +134 (1x) W
Over 206 -107 Philly (4x) W
Over 196 -110 Utah (4x) W
NJ -4 -111(6x) L
New York Knicks +10.5 -110 (8x) W
New Orleans ML -133 (6x) L (wrong score reported...how the fuck do you blow a 25 pt lead?)
Pistons +5 -107 (4x) W

ML parlay Wiz -226 , Tor -171 and Utah -160 (1x)
Then (2x each) Wiz with Tor and Wiz with Utah

2nd H
Raptors -4.5 -102 (3x) L
Over 104 +104 Tor (2x) W(high line...seems shady like the 2nd q pace )
NYK +3.5 -111(3x) W

CBB (1-2 YTD) What was I thinking?
Hawaii +8 -108 (3x) L
East Wash +10-110 (4x)L

Thoughts -
~ Atl @ Tor - Hawks win 3 straight pull off an upset due IMO to Cle just losing focus (up 10 with 9 to play). Cavs were miserable in the 2nd H from the FT line and with the chance to 'ice' the game King James missed a FT to extend to three with seconds remaining, instead he missed and Lue hit a floater in the lane for OT. The Hawks did a nice job of beating barely .00 type teams in Orl & NYK in ATL. They lost in Philly which Tor just beat and got he gift win in Cleveland. So to me alot of fuss over a smoewhat flukish win keeps this line soft...Philly was -3.5 here the other nite and would say that Philly is a good 3 or 4 pts stronger then ATL on a neutral court...which leads me to believe this should be closer to -5.5 . AT first glance the OVER made sense but looking at how many shots ATL opponents are avg it will take a tremendous effort fg% wise to get this in the 200's. Last year when ATL played no defense it was possible but this year seems different...so actaully lean to the UNDER @ 201 or better. So gonna middle the total..

~ Orl @ Ind - I really dont have a great feel for this game. However I thought with O'Neal at less the 100% , Granger and Tinsly struggling I think Orlando can hang with them tonite despite there struggles last year vs Indy.

~ Milw @ Wash - Take away the opener versus Det and IMO Milwauke has played poorly. The last game at home versus Houston wasnt nearly as close as the final indicates. I give MILW credit for the 4th Q comeback but what happened the other 3 quarters...appeared that Hosuton just got sloppy with the ball. Otherwise MILW was smoked at Toronto and Chicago. Arenas is on fire at the moment and Ilook for that to continue. Wiz have scored 124 and 117 at home...

~ Den@ Philly - The Nuggets keep finding new ways to lose. They could be 3-0 and stand at 0-3 because of that we get a spread I feel is off a bit probably closer to a PK game really. Nuggets were favored in Philly last year and both teams virtually the same. Denver has benefited from playing just 3 games this year while Philly playing 3rd in 4 nites..

~ Sea @ Char - Seattle is the best 1-4 team this season, they are a "few" 4th Q collapses from being 5-0. Every nite they find a new way to lose but eventually they will play a game. Tonites a great spot with the 3rd in 4 nites away also part of a 5 game tripwhich has seen them go 0-2 SU but 2-0 ATS. They play in ATL tmrw. Big injury with Raymond Felton being OUT here but Morrison steps in at the two and Knight slides to the point. Last year Seattle was waxed down in Charlotte by 13 and 25 after 3 quarters. That was the Marvin Ely , Jumaine Jones , Primo Brezec frontline..Okafor is beginning to live up to the potential tag and Sean May is also playing well off the bench. I like Morrison starting here against a team disinterested in playing defense. Havent watched the past 2 Sonics game and cant understand the low shot attempts in those games. WIth Miami I played the UNDER with Shaq out but went Over in Orlando which was never close...I gonna wait and see where this total settles but I think I play the over here...Collison is questionable along with Fortson both were limited in pratice on Thursday.

~ Utah @ Bos - Not crazy about road chalk but Boston gave it everything to defeat Charlotte at home at the OT buzzer..Utah hung with NJ but ultimately faded. I see Utah bouncing back here but historically the Celts play Utah well. This year I dont think they have the big men to playwith this developing line of Boozer , Kirilenko and Okur. Al Jefferson loss will be felt here especially..Ryan Gomes an out of shape Ratliff , Candy Man and the rest of the cast will have there hands full. Utah is putting there opponents on the line 37 times a game and Charlotte went to the line 52 times versus Boston pushing the Celts up to 39 FTs allowed per. Both teams are solid from the line and hit a decent pct from three...

~ Miami @ NJN - For me I just think Miami has looked awful this year. Shaw probably isnt 100% and he was a big reason why they won last week in the 1st matchup. Miami has won 5 straight but this isnt last year and heat arent coming off an embarassing home loss. RJ was less then 100% last week I believe in this game and it showed in the boxscore. Miami won a close one but I think NJ rolls here at home...

~ NYK @ Hou - Tough spot for the home team 5th in 7 days , off a 3 game road trip . NY played Houston tight last year and the NYK showed they can win a tight game witha 4th Q comeback in Denver. They showed heart on Monday and coming back vs SA but the season is young and Isiah is still looking for a mix that works.....to many points here...

~ NO @ Port - Value play here as NO starting get abit overvaued IMO as we saw hem lose ATS to GS twice. The Blazers have pulled off a couple upsets at home already but I think we should have still seen -4 here. Randolph hasnt played particulary well vs NO and he is there offense.

~ Det @ LAL - DET always struggles on the west coast but I think LAL is falling back to there old Kobe ways...stand and wtach Kobe......

Thursday NBA thoughts -

Last nite was so-so but a positive one nontheless.

Plays-
Under 213.5 -105 Dallas (7x)
Over 195.5 -110 Golden State(5x)
Golden State ML-118 (4x)
Suns -4 -102 (lean) passed
Over 183 -105 Chicago (6x) Win

Team Totals-
Under 102.5 -106 Mavs (1.5x)

2nd H
Warriors ML -126 (1x)

CBB Plays (1-0 +2.00 YTD)-
Alcorn State +30.5 -105 (2x) L
StBonnies -4 -120 (2x) L

Thoughts-
~Bulls @ Cavs- Offseason additions of PJ Brown and Ben Wallace have improved this team defensively but still not addressed there need for a go to scorer IMO. Who takes the big shot on this team? Who wants to take the big shot? From what I have seen CHI really hasnt improved much they beat Miami in the opener and Milw. Well the Heat look like shit so far with or w/o Shaq and Bucks blew there load on opening nite winning in DET. Chi lost a squeaker to Sacramento at home and got trounced following there win in Miami down in orlando. To me a good team wouldnt be so flat off a big win. Cle has killed themselves at the FT line this year. They defeated Wash in the opener but missed half there FTs making the Final look closerthen it should have been. They broke there drought in SA by winning SU there last Friday. However they followed it up by losing a close game in Charlotte the next day where again FTs were an issue. Then they come home and you think everything wil be okay but they lose to ATL in OT. They blew a DD lead with about 8 minutes to play. They made only 8 of 18 FTs in the 4th Q and OT and struggled mightily throught from the charity stripe. So Cle hasnt looked good but IMO primarily due to there inabilities to hit FTs which could be corrected easily IMO.
The Cavs own the Bulls winning all 4 last year and this is a home team dominanted series. Hoping this line gets cheaper but thinking about Cle here and the over.

~Dallas @ Suns -Dallas is really clueless right now and the Suns cant finish a game off. Despite the poor records I would say the Suns are playing much better then Dallas right now just getting killed by a tough schedule. With Dallas continuing to struggle on Offense and Suns off an exhausting OT effort vs the Spurs I saw a much lower scoring game then anticipated. Suns played 4 in 5 nites then get a few days off but play a tough OT game last nite and had to travel back home. Dallas has scored more then 91 just once in 4 games and Howard is no OUT for awhile with Stackhouse starting. My big concern is both teams allow high opposing FG percentages and 31 FT attempts per. Hope people saw my heads uplast nite on the total down to the 209 area now

~NO @ GS - Really like GS here but Richardson is now listed as questionable along with Pietrus and Diogui being banged up and questionable. This is like so many others a home dominanted series but NO wins have all been narrow including Tuesdays 4 pt win vs GS. The Warriors could have been flat playing there 4th game in 5 nites but they came to play. Really like the Over here as it is lower in Golden State then it was in NO on Tuesday...195.5 here to 198 there. Really GS shot better then NO did except from the 3 pt area (7/25 vs 6/15) which left GS 30/55 from inside the arc vs NO 32/74. Richardson wasnt much of a factor either with Monta Ellis and Anthony Roberson picking up the slack. So basically the Hornets have improved from last season with the continued emergence of Paul and West plus adding Peja and Bobby Jackson. Waiting on injury updates before I decide.

~Friday early looks Charlotte -1 but can be patient with this line. Playing Over 199.5 -115 Atl @ Toronto. Looking at Tor -4.5 , NO -3 and over 199 Utah...

Week 11 CFB

This Weeks Plays:

Weekday-
Under 54 -110 Toledo (2x) Win

Under 52 -110 Rutgers & Louisville (4x) Loss & Und 27-120 & 2nd H (2x) Win
Rutgers +7.5 -115 (8x) Win ML +209(1x) Win RU +3 -120 & 2nd H (2x) Win
Under 50 -110 BYU / Wyoming (3x) Loss & Und 22.5 -111 2nd H (1x) Loss

Under 48 -110 Cent Mich / West Mich (3x) middle Over 46-109 (3x) late change xxx
Under 53 -120 UAB (3x) PUSH (middled the wrong one I guess)
2nd H +3 -128 (2x) UTEP Win

Team totals
Under Lville 28.5 -110 (1.5x) W
Over 14 -140 Buffalo (1.5x) W

Under 59.5 -110 Minnesota & Mich State (3x) Win +3.
Michigan State +3 -120 (8x) Loss -9.6
North Carolina +14 -115 (3x) Win +3.
Teaser Purdue +9 / Under 53 (3x) Loss -3.60
Purdue +141 ML (1.5x) Win +2.11
Iowa +1.5 -102 (5x) ML +118 (5x) Loss (ouch ) -10.10
Auburn -11.5 -105 (3x) Loss -3.05
West Virginia -17 -110 (5x) Win+5.00
Over 59 -109 Baylor & Okl State (3x) Win +3.00
Over 51.5 -110 East Car & Marshall (3x) Win+3.
Over 51.5 -139 Vandy (3x) middled Under 55 -110 (1.5x) Win +1.50
Kentucky ML -115 (5x) Win +5.00
Over 53 -114 Tulane (5x)
Over 56-105 Rice & Tulsa (3x)
Smu +3.5 -108 (3x) ML +141 (1x)
Northwestern +23.5 -110 (3x)
South Carolina (buy) +14 -120 (3x) middled Fla -12-105 (3x)
Over 44 -110 Florida (3x)
Indiana +19.5 -110 (3x)
Over 51 Ind -110 (3x)
Arizona+14 -107 (3x)
Neb ML -114 (3x) ML -110 (2x)

Over 54 -102 Notre Dame (5x)
Nevada -16.5 -117 1st Half (3x)
New Mex +7.5 -110 (3x)
Under 58 -105 San Jose State (3x)
San Jose +14 -110 (3x)
Oregon State ML -122 (3x)
BC 1st H -17 -104 (3x)
Under 53 -111 Oklahoma(5x)
Tex Tech +9 -110 (3x)
Under 47 -105 Arkansas (3x)
Bama +18.5 -111 (3x)
Over 39.5 LSU (lean)
UCF +1 -105 (5x)
Kansas State +17.5 -116 (3x) middle w/ Texas waiting
Penn State 1st H -20.5 -122 (2x)
Over 24 -105 1st H BC (2x)
ASU ML -105(3x)
Hawaii -21 1st H -115 (3x)
Under 77-110 (3x)
FSU -5 -105 1st H (2x)

Team Totals-(all 1x unless noted)
Under 0.5 +254 Temple
Over 36.5 -119 BC
Over 24.5 -119 KentuckyWin
Over 30.5 -117 Navy Win
Under 14.5 Georgia -118 Loss
Over 10.5 +103 Alabama
Under 10.5 -130 Stanford
Under 30.5 -116 Minnesota Loss
Over 27.5 -132 Mich State Loss
Over 32.5 -105 Notre Dame
Over 15.5 -115 Zona
Under 35.5 -108 Boise State
Over 24 -108 Pittsburgh
Under 17.5 -108 UNLV

Teasers
FSU , Notre Dame , South Fla (4x)
Auburn -1.5 , Utah , -1.5 , ND , -1 (3x) L

ML Parlay
Ark ML -222 & FSU -330 (3x)


2nd H
Over 25.5 -114 Kentucky (2x) W
Tulane +151 ML (1x)

Thoughts-
~ Louisville @ RU - If you look at stats and boxscores it will probably leave you hard pressed to see the value in Rutgers. I for one complained about there incredibily easy early season schedule. What really changed my opinion is how they played @ Pitt. Before that game Tyler Palko had been playing some real solid ball along with the rest of his tyeam since the Mich State game. RU ran right over them and shut down there pasing game. When it came time for Teel to do something he made a few plays late. Rutgers isnt bringing sexy back by any means. There playing good hard nosed , fundamental football. Tonite is the biggest game in the past 20 or so years for this program sort of like it was for Louisville last week. Thats a key diffference as last week Louisville was the team with all that energy behind them and tonite they will be fcaing that team. Also note Lville hasnt really had a tough road game. Its biggest test was Syracuse and while one could argue they used a vanilla playbook before WVU it really was significantly better talentwise. They didnt score till about 5 minutes before the half and the 28-13 final saw Kolby Smith run on ein with about a minute to play to ice the game. The Dome is a tough place to play but you gotta believe tonite will be alot tougher. Louisville allowed four 80+ yards TD drives something WVU really hadnt been doing. They had really benefited from short fields combined with there speed to get quick scores. So I could see RU grinding it out vs this defense with Ray Rice and Bryan Leonard. On offense last week Lville agianst what I would call a so-so defense had struggles putting the ball in the end zone with 3 short Fgs. It will only getharder here especially on the road. They benefited from momentum plays to open the 3rd Q a Slayton fumble returned for a TD and a short punt returned for a TD. The talent edge is on Lville side but they have been inconsistent on offense and IMO unproven on the road.

I fully expect a low scoring grind it out type game here. The way I see it Lville probably should only be about a FG fav here. However offense is sexy and so is points thats where RU comes up short in the image department. The Lville offense wasnt as explosive as made out to be last week IMO and that was a home game not a road game. No one believed( I did) in Lville last week at home but by beating a WVU team that had one quality win (Georgia in the Bowl last year) they suddenly become national contender material...I dont see it.

~ Buff @ Akron - I would like to fade Buffalo off abig home upset and Akron off a flat game vs BG. However with the new QB I think its best to stay away from a side despite my Akron lean. I am truly disappointed I missed the total would have loved to play the over @ 44.5 even 46 but now at 50 its way past where I saw value.

~ Wyoming @ BYU - I think Wyoming can hang here. There defense especially versus the pass has been solid enough granted they havent played a team like BYU. There offense has struggled on the road at places like UVA and TCU but suprisingly moved the ball @ Syracuse. Look for Wyoming to attempt control TOP and run the ball. Doesnt appear to be an ideal situation weather wise to throw the ball. Wyoming has not won @ NYU since 1987 needs a W to bvecome bowl eligible. Just looking for more info on this game...

~ WMU @CMU - While the offenses have improved its mainly IMO due to competition. With West mich struggling lately I think there is some value in them. With this number now dropping I may look to middle though as this how 24-21 (23-20)written all over it. The only WMU road game that saw any offense was when they played @ Ball State which is self explanatory.

~ UTEP @ UAB - Clearly UTEP is the better team here and dsperate for a win but that lackluster effort vs Rice scares me. UAB IMO hasnt played well at home losing to Marshall , beating a horrible Memphis team by 6 , losing in OT To Miss State, and beating Troy(big deal) and a solid 5 pt win vs ECU. Like alot of this midweek games again I like the Under since UAB has had trouble on offense...

Comments to come.........

Noon starts -
~ Minny @ Mich State - last home games for the Spartans against a Minny team 0-4 on the road who hasnt been able to score away . You could say Mich State has quit but I will say if they quit why did Purdue need a late FG to pull out the win last week? Stanton's last home game I believe. Minny has wins at home agaisnt Temple , ND State , and now Indiana....simple overreaction to Minny exploding last week.

~ Purdue @ Ill - The Illini playing better and Purdue is inconsisntent but not sure they deserve to be 3 pt dogs. Ill only has the 3 pt win @ Mich State really to speak off and that was the week after the ND historic comeback on them. They blew a lead to Indiana , losy to Ohio U and Cuse at home...a close game to flat Ohio State team....weighing on bettors minds.. Illinois 5-0 ATS catching 17 or more but 0-4 in other roles...

~ GT @ UNC - Never a big fan of GT as fav since the have proven to be inconsistent in the Ball ERA. However I think UNC has shown some improvement the past 2 games and they hung with GT last year. Dailey is the key here...

~Cincy @ WVU- Think people are down on WVU after the Ville game. However now that Ville has been defeated this game is HUGE for them as they still face Rutgers to end the season. Cincy has played some great defense but WVU speed kills and they IMO wont score enough to cover. Remember that Cincy caught 25 @ Ville earlier and played well but they wont be sneaking up on anyone now. WVU handled them 38-0 on the road last year. Mountaineers are rested and while they may be down hopefully the timeoff combined with Rutgers upsetting Louisville helps them refocus.

~Wisky @ Iowa - Iowa won the past 4 years in this series including in Madison last season. This is senior day @ Iowa and Stocco if he plays will be hurting with a seperated shoulder and brusied ribs. Just think its a grat situational play after Iowa lost SU at home to Northwestern. Logic tells you how can you take Iowa here BUT you have to BUY low always and Wisky really hasnt beaten anyone to speak of...okay Penn State buttell me how the Lions are gonna wina road game with taht offense? You cant so not that impressive.......

~Baylor @ Oklahoma State - If Bell was healthy I would play this heavier. The Bears will again be exposed by the Ok State air attack and should score enough versus a medicore defene that has had it sown issues.

~Georgia @ Auburn - Third consecutive SEC road game for the DAWGS is not a good spot. Auburn has some banged up starts but they will play. Dont see Georgia breaking 14 pts here..

~ Vandy @ Kentucky - Simply like Kentucky being able to win 2 close SEC games and pulling off an upset then follwoing it up with another home game. Kentucky was able to win @ vandy last year.

~ Houston @ SMU - The Cougars have some impressive wins but on the road they lost So Miss and only beat Rice by 1 in the opener. Willis has a 20-4 TD/Int ratio and the mustangs are sneaking up on people......

~ Ohio State @ Nwestern - We all know whats on deck....Michigan vs ohio State so fading both a week before

~ Cal @ Arizona- Probably a bad decision but a PAC 10 game with a 2 TD home dog...

~ Neb @ A&M - Think A&M will be down here after a close loss. Nebraska redeemed themselves smokingMissouri. A&M cant throw enough to exploit the NEB defensive weakness.

The NFL Week 10 Sunday November 12th

Plays: (have few to write about)

Under 39.5 -110 Chicago Bears /NY Giants (10x)
Bears +3.5 -135 (5x)
NY Jets +10.5 109 (5x)
Bengals +1.5 -105 (5x) and Bengals +100 ML (3x)
Over 48 -105 Sand Diego (5x)
Chiefs ML +120 ( 5x)
Jaguars -10 -103 (3x)
Browns +9.5 -117 (4x)
Over 42 -102 Atlanta (4x)
Titans +9.5 -127 (5x)
Saints +6 is not a play with Horn out
Eagles -6.5-120 (5x)
Cardinals +7.5 -120 (7x)
bills +12 -105 (3x)
Packers +5.5 -110 (3x)

Thoughts-

~Chi@ NYG - The injuries have piled up in this game but the important ones IMO are going unnoticed. The main reason CHI has been able to stretch the field this season is the emergence of WR Berrian. He will not play on Sunday nite. For NY already dealing with a banged up Plaxico who missed the Texans game they just learned Toomer is done for the year. I was already all over this total and had played it before learning of this injury. The NYG defense is going to missing three DE's it appears Strahan , Umenyora , and Tuck. Arrington is already done for theyear @ LB plus Short missed last week and so has Sam Madison. For CHI Urlacher got hurt and is questionable but I think he plays. They also already lost Mike Brown for the season. It was NOT there defense that cost them vs Miami but the repeated turnovers of the offense.

I just dont see this offenses consistently moving the ball as they both will have gameplans heavily reliant on the run. The offense has not played well on the road. Go back to the opener vs a young GB team they put up 26 but had 4 FGS , a punt return and a great circus catch for a TD by Berrian. Against Minny the scored 19 but again 4 FGS and TD thanks to a late taylor fumble that gave them a real short field , we know about the offense @ Arizona...zilch! Even this week one TD was off a Harrington pick that gaveChi momentum and they marched downfield.

NY at home has score 21 vs Indy , 19 vs Wash , 17 vs TB despite good starting field position and only 14 last week vs Houston(only allowed 26 , 3 , 3 , and 10). The weather should be in the low 30's and if the wind is howling @ the Meadowlands it will be freezing!!!!(trust me) . Without much of a passing game Chi will struggle to move the ball versus a NYG defense that allows 3.1 YPC against a Bears O who averages 2.7YPC away. NY will have to rely on Jacobs and Barber who avg 4.7 YPC at hoem against CHI D at 3.1 YPC but remember Ronnie brown found success against them. Wind at nite could also be interesting whne it comes to FG kicking......


~ NYJ @ NE - The Pats will be w/o safety Rodney Harrison here . With the emergence of Leon Washington the Jets go into this with arunning game something they didnt have in the 1st meeting. Pennington was able to move the ball late but the game was basically decided already. With Harrison missing it should be easier this time around even in NE. The Pats for some reason have not played well at home : close 2 pt win vs Buffalo , a loss to Denver 17-7 , a 10 pt win that was much closer then the final to Miami and the Indy loss...very strange...while the Jets havent played that bad away winning @ Tenny , @ Buffalo , losing a heartbreaker in Cleveland and the annihilation @ Jax. Other divisonal rivals like Miami and Buffalo competed in NE cant see why NYJ cant here. Thinking over here as NE should score about 24...

~ SD @ Cincy - The Bengals are fading BUT the SD defense has so many injuries it doesnt warrant IMO being favored. This should be a shootout for sure. Basically I see this as Cincy -1 here not +1. SD has lost @ KC and @ Baltimore but won @ SF and @ Oakland....yeah they dont have a quality road win. They have the erly start factor and I think Cincy let it all out after the BALT game. You cant tell me these guys dont care...TJ with the helmut toss and Palmer chewing out Henry. This team should have a better attitude and focus here. The SD defense has shown holes allowing 79 pts past 3 and even allowed 19 1st H points @ SF ...

~ Skins @ Eagles - The Skins won a fluke game thanks tomany Dallas miscues . What hasnt improved is the Skins defense as it ranks near the bottom in pass defense..they went to Troy Vincent at safety and Springs and Rogers are both playing now, tough to say if they are 100% though. Enter a Eagle team off 3 consecutive losses , a home loss and a bye week which they are 7-0 under Reid the following week. Wash could be w/o Moss again and now Lloyd is hobbled as well. Skins havent looked well @ Indy , Dallas or NYG. Skins just wont score enough and the Eagles want revenge for the Skins sweep last season.

~ Balt @ Tenn - The return of Steve McNair! Tenny playe d awful @ Jax but it followed a run of some solid games and the Titan defense was missing soe key players including Pac Man Jones. The Ravens offense really hasnt done much more since booting Jim Fassel. Its tsill there defense setting up there offense. Now we have Heap , Ray-Ray and Ed Reed listed as questionable. ravens are tough as hell to run on but they can be thrwon on to bad Vince Young hasnt really found that part of his game. Just looking for a scrappy game that is somewhere around 17-13 or 20-14...made this play as soon as I saw it @ +9.5 that was ridiculous. ravens are 4-11 ATS away and 0-4 last 4 as road chalk while DOG is 12-3 in the series. So I still see an struggling Ravens offense which makes this a big number to cover.

~

November 8th NBA -

Its official the NBA 'shaves' years off your life....


Plays
Philadelphia +3.5 -105 (5x) ML +143 (1x) +4.00
Over 203.5 -111 Tor (3x) +3.00
Over 202 -110 Indiana (3x) +3.00
Indiana +5.5 -110 (3x) -3.30
Over 208.5 -110 Orlando(5x) -5.50
Under 201 -110 Boston (3x) -3.30
Char +5 -110 (2x) +2.00
NJ -3-107 (3x) +3.00
Over 190 -110 NJ (5x)-5.50
Bucks ML -125 (7x) -8.75
Suns +6.5 -110 (8x) ML +235 (1x) +7.00
Over 204.5 -110 Suns (3x) +3.00
Blazers +4.5 -109 (3x) +3.00
Under 199 -111 (7x) Portland (so fucked here...66 pts last 13 minutes of the 1st H) o 98-105 2ndH(1x) +6.00
Mavs + 3-107 (5x) ML +134 (1x) -6.00
Kings ML -120 (6x) +6.00(tied @ half so counted it as a game play)

Net +7.65

Parlay ML's -5.00
Magic -269 / Denver -550 (5x) (about .62cents for every dollar) risk 5 / pays 3.10
Loss -5.00 how does Denver blow a 10 pt 4th q lead to NY???????

1st H
Bobcats ML +166 (1x) +1.66

2nd H
Ov 92.5 -101 Kings (2x) +2.00

CBB play
Brown +17 -120 (2x) +2.00

Thoughts-
~Philly @ Tor - In recent seasons the 76ers have played well in Toronto and won all 3 meetings with AI playing last yr versus the Raps. Who have played okay early but lack rebounding beyond Bosh which hopefully the Philly frontline could exploit. CWeb has struggled so far but hopefully the fact his minutes were down last nite keep him fresh(or his knees). Basically dont see why after 1 bad game Philly is the dog here...PK seemed correct at worst. In recent games Philly was about 4 pt chalk in Tor . To me Tor has new faces and talent wise is going sideways more then anything else. They really didnt replace Villaneuva(Bargnani/ Garbosa still raw) yet.The 76ers need to get CWebb going as Iguadola , Korver and AI have played very good early IMO...try and hold out for+4 but not sure we see that also would lean towards an Over here. Philly has allowed high FG % to Miami , Orlando and Ind through the 1st 3 quarters where they trailed by 25 to start the 4th and Indy appeared to shut it down.

~ Ind @ Wash- Well O' Neal twisted his ankle last nite but claims to be fine and will play here. On ething I see is the Wizards still not playing much defense as evidenced by there 50 % FG allowed and 46% allowed from 3. Etan Thomas appears to be playing well though coming of a 15 board , 9 offensive , 6 block game. However he and haywood got into a scuffle basically over the situation that has arisen in WASH where Thomas was named starter but Haywood felt he was deserving. Haywood has openly commented in the press about his feelings . Wiz allowed 117 to Boston and aton of FT attempts. Looking at the 1st 3 games Wiz have basically allowed teams to make 9.3 of the 20 3pt attempts (28 pts allowed per game from three), they put opponents on the line 32 times a game and what saved them versus Cle was the Cavs going 15/30 in FT's. WIth Indy thats nit gonna happen with them @ 78%(would be 24 of 31). With Jaskevicius ailing with back issues look for the ole spark plug Darrell Armstrong to get increased minutes and he is palying well early. Wiz bench has really only 3 contributing players and Haywoods seems minimal...so it's only Daniels and Hayes really. Havent pulled the trigger yet but thinking Pacers +5 -105 and Over 202 -105.

~ Sea & Orl -While the number might seem high these two teams are all offensive. Magic have scored 106,103 and 109 at home while SEA b4 yesterday was 106 ,112 and 117 . They had allowed at least a 100 every game and 110+ twice. Both teams dont rebound well and stroke the three at 40+ % from 3 pt land. Orlando gets to the line over 30 times again and puts there opponents on the line at least 30 times. Seattle the same but cause of there jump shooting dependency have not gotten to the line at a high rate...low 20's . The Magic have played well at home and I figure this line is tight. Miami knew they had to play solid defense with Shaq out and they did...SEA also was +5.5 to a Shaq-less Miami. Waiting for lower then 209...

~ Char @ Boston- Both teams playing fairly well on the defense end but probably due to there youth are allowing teams to many FT attempts. Bobcats holding opponents to 38% from the floor but 37 FT attempts. While celts at home holding teams to about 42% from the floor. Basically this game will come down to FT shooting differential where I see Boston with the edge. The Bobcats played well versus Boston last year and with a healthy May and Okafor plus Morrision have vastily improved already. Leaning towards grabbing the points with Charlotte maybe even ML or 1st H ML. Boston should get a defensive boast from the return of Ratliff.

~ Utah @ NJ - Well I for one have believed in Utah early and there new offensive game plan. However this is a situation where they play a quality team away and basically must win SU to cover ATS. I hink cause we havent seen much of NJ yet just 2 games and losing @ Miami they are somewhat under the radar. they get Cliff Robinson back to help versus that Utah frontline and against Utahs very deep lineup. Personally I think we see another high scoring game...Utah has played very well but they have had the benefit of being home and sneaking up on teams. Utah send sthere opponents to the line nearly 37 times a game which is where NJ can get an edge. Utah has shot well early and opponents have avg 85 shots versus NJ.

~ Hou @ Milw- The Rockets play there 4th game in 5 nites . For me its just gonna be a situational play. I think this line is accurate and not shaded. Houston has gone 1-2 on the road and wasnt all that impressive versus Memphis last nite. Houston had 24 turnovers last nite and 45 past 2 games. Think MILW could have the size to negetate HOU rebounded edge. bucks win a tight one here..

~ Suns @ Spurs - Another situational play with Spurs playing 5th in 7 nites. Amare gets into the starting lineup here with the Suns struggling. The Suns will also have Jalen Rose available tonite. I think the Suns struggled due to they played some tough opponents and had to do so in a 4 game in 5 nite stretch. They probably took LAL for granted with Kobe out. They rebounded with a win vs LAC but lost a close game to the HOT Jazz and then had a rematch in LAC they lost. Last years meetings didnt have Amare and the previous season we saw totals in the 210's. SA is gonna be abit tired and Suns somewhat desperate early. The Spurs really struggle from teh FT line despite getting alot of attempts. Suns excel at the line and get there often but also slow the game down by putting there opponnets there 33 times. If Suns get to the line 28 times based on there avg they would make 23 which is anout 3 better then SA previous opponents. Suns have had off sinnce 11/4 th while SA has played in Tor and in NY.

~ NYK @ Denver - Has anything changed here in NY? It seems like the same team who ended last season. A very great start in memphis that was typical NYK 4th Q basketball where we collapsed andhad to battle through OTs to win by a point.......imagine had we lost. Then we traveled and lost ATL , but worse hosted IND and SA and basically didnt even compete. Sure NY had that great 22 point comeback vs SA but down 1 they went COLD. The NYK tend to play only 1 good half of ball so if for some reason they cover the 1st H its wise to fade them in the 2nd H. They have struggled versus Denver in recent seasons and and this line seems accurate to me . Denver struggles from 3pt land which might be the only thing that saves NY caus eDenver still likes to shot them. They have lost 2 close games and have been well rested. Which remains me who made the NBA schedule? Teams seem to be on long rest or playing 4 in 5 nites or 3 in 4 nites...If I play it would have to be Denver.....see a 108 -95 game..

~LAL @ Portland - The trip up north has been unkind to the Lakers recently losing 3 straight and having narrow 1 & 3 pt wins. Brandon Roy is out but Blazers roster is littered with2 guards and I expect Juan Dixon to step in. LAL played some run and gun basketball but with Kobe back it alwas regresses to satnd around and watch Kobe. Andrew Bynum is a kid you should watch. Working with Kareem he has made enormous strides in just 1 season and I believe he still isnt 20 yet! I gave the heads up with this portland UNDER since I thought it was to hig @ 199. Now its dropped but really I didnt see this game reaching 190. last game blazers pulled out a close win but here I think LAL wins a last minute game.. 94-92..early on obe's leg in BtoB's wil be a question mark IMO.

~ Dal @ LAC - Dallas is 0-3 with a couple of tough losses and LAC is 3-1 with a couple of tight wins. They lost @ PHO but got payback a few days later. They also hosted Denver and narrowly escaped with a WIN as well as played Portland tight for 3 Q till the blazers finally hit empty and LAC pulled away. I believe they got the cover versus portland after 2 missed FTs up 11 Maggette got the board and put it back just b4 the clock hit zero. Josh Howard is now out for Dallas putting Dallas in further dispair. I dont know why Avery Johnson chose to strat Bunckner over Devin Harris but the error has been corrected as of Monday. Howard is a loss but there should be some depth at the 3 spot looking at the roster. Last season clearly a much better one or Dallas saw the Mavs as 4 pt favs in LAC. Sort of concerned about the total drop but I do like the over here. Then again past history shows a low scoring game...

~ Det @ Sac - Its hard with Miller OUT to not like DET. However SAC played very well w/o him on Monday and the Pistons have lost something like 9 of 11 in SAC. I wouldnt be suprised before its all said and done to see a PK here or DET -1. While I did like the Under it was very marginal @ 188 IMO.

For Wed played Suns +6.5 -110 (8x) spurs 4th in 5 nites and Suns well rested. (ML +235 as well). Blazers +4.5 -109 and Under 199 -111 played as well...

Tuesday NBA Thoughts

Plays ~
Cavs -9.5 -110 (7x) L -7.70
Under 189 -110 (2.5x) L-2.75
Pacers -4 -120 (5x) W +5.00
Over 197 -107 Ind (3x) L -3.21
Und 204 -102 Seattle(3x) W +3.00
Memphis +4 -102 (4x) ML +164 (1/2x) L -4.58
Warriors +8 -118(avg price) (5x) W+5.00
Heat -7 +107 (2x) reminds me of Sac.minny last nite... L- 2.00
LAL -7.5 -115 (4x) The NBA is humbling L -4.60 thanks to a choke and 2 missed FTs

Three huge mistakes by me. First liking Seattle but switching to Miami , second loving Houston @-2.5 but going Memphis and third was talking myself out of UND in NO>



1stH (+2.18)
Over 99 -121 Philly (1.5x) L
Under 104 -110Miami (1x) W
Under 100.5 -105 LAL (1.5x) W
Ind -2.5 -105 (1.5x) W

Team (-1.08)
Und 89 -108 ATL (1x) L

2nd half (-2.15)

No play on the Indiana game

Cavs -7 -103 (1x)L

Ov 89.5 -112 Houston (1x) L

Over 95 -107 GS(2x) PUSH

Atlanta @ Cleveland

Appears to me that the Hawks are a getting alot of credit for 2 home wins. A team that was about 12 pt dogs in Cle last year , 6 pt dogs in Philly in the opener and so on opens at just 9.5. I expected at least 11 here. Atlanta will have trouble on the glass and they dont have a scorer outside of Joe Johnson. I would expect Atl to struggle to crack 85 points in Cleveland.

not a big Trend person but I liked this game to fall Under the number and saw these:

OU Trends
Atlanta
Over is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 Tuesday games.
Under is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 overall.
Under is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 7-1 in Hawks last 8 vs. NBA Central.
Under is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 games as an underdog.
Under is 13-3 in Hawks last 16 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 road games.
Over is 11-3 in Hawks last 14 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Under is 6-2 in Hawks last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 6-2 in Hawks last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 5-2 in Hawks last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.

Cleveland
Under is 6-0 in Cavaliers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 home games.
Under is 7-1 in Cavaliers last 8 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.
Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 16-5 in Cavaliers last 21 overall.
Under is 12-4 in Cavaliers last 16 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 8-3 in Cavaliers last 11 vs. NBA Southeast.
Under is 15-6 in Cavaliers last 21 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 39-16 in Cavaliers last 55 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 13-6 in Cavaliers last 19 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 35-17 in Cavaliers last 52 home games vs. a team with a losing road record

Now the Total is significantly lower then the numbers set last year but ATL was more run and gun last season so I waiting to see how this moves...

Plays : Cavs -9.5 -110 (7x) & under 189 -110 (2.5x) & Und 89 -108 team ATL(1x)

Philly @ Indiana

Again we see another road team getting more credit then it deserves. Philly start has been nice but home wins against ATL and a Shaq-less Miami is far from impressive. Winning @ Orlando was nice but I believe it was the game after ORL had shot lights out and trounced Chicago. Philly was catching 5 to Philly so this number should be around 6 IMO(Ind was -4 to SOLID no TEAM AS WELL). The 76ers have been lights out from three thanks to Korver and shooting 52% from deep but Ind allowing just 26%.

Waiting to see if I can catch -4 here and looking at the OVER since Indiana is not the same team it was in years past ...so expect an over play here as well. Almost @ -4...

Play: Indiana -4 -120 (5x) & Over 198-107 (3x)

Sea @ Miami

Sounds to me like SHAQ will not play but thats just a guess. Regardless I am leaning towards Seattle here. Lewis and Allen shot well last game and Miami just doesnt seem to have much going offensely with Shaq..+6.5 seems enticing...total is a mystery.. (gambled played +6.5 -110 small awaiting Shaqs status though)

Plays : Seattle +6.5 -110 (1x) CANCELED & Und 204 -102 (3x)

Hou @Memphis

Hard to not like Houston here but Memphis always play the Rockets well. This line got to pricey but I dont see myself taking Memphis here. To hard to get a handle on Houston but they are playing tough teams early...staying away from for now......but +4 or better I have to play the dog.. Switched

Play: Memphis +4 -102 (4x) ML +164 (1/2)

GS @ NO

Tough spot for GS 3rd road game in 4 nites coming off Dallas win. I just think this line is to high though. Have to look it afurther but 7.5 seems high and so does the total considering NO is involved...esp with teams combing to shot 66% from the charity stripe.

Played: Golden State (buy 1/2) +8 -120 (4x) +8 -110(1x) Still thinking Under

Minny @ LAL

I am far from impressed with LAL's play since Kobe returned. However Minny playing 4th road game in 5 nites and 5th game in 7 days. About a bad as a spot as possible for the Wolves who are searching for offense. Right now staying away but situation could dictate a play on LAL.

Still thinking LAL

NCAAF ~
Under 54 -110 (2x)
The Huskie O has struggled and alot of that has to do with the quality of opponents. However Toledo has been really poor on the road offensively andI look for that to continue.

GL ~ be back later

Monday Nite Football

Okay so the Seattle Seahawks w/o Alexander or Hasselback hosting the Oakland Raiders fails to qualify as the marquee matchup America needs to tune in. Its still an opportunity to figure out thses Oakland Raiders. Now my first point will be dont get overly wrapped up in the fact that this game opened @ +9 and dropped to +7. This happened IMO for one reason. It was thought that Shaun Alexander would return here and when that was ruled out BOOKS adjusted the spread. There wasnt some heavy hitters dropping wads of dough on any side it was a simple adjustment. Some people say dont look at line moves but I disagree. Dont get overly wrapped in line moves but try to figure out or understand why a line is moving. Sure its an educated guess but so is attempting to put a poker player on a hand. If you are truly good at what you do most of the time you have the correct idea of what is going on.

The major difference bewteen these teams is simple. One team (Oakland) appears to play defense every week while the other doesnt (Seattle). One team has a decent offense even with 2 starst missing (seattle) while the other is bottom of the NFL (oakland). Now last week Oak 's D played well actually great till real late in the 3rd Q. I am guessing with the offense struggling all game it started to tire. On Pitts first 8 drives Oak held them to 5 three and outs , 2 six plays drives that netted 5 yards and 22 yards(which pitt had the ball to start in Oak territory) and one drive where they had solid field poistion (own 42) and moved 12 plays 47 yds for a FG. They went 39 plays for 78 yards!! Unfortunately Oak was running 41 plays for 109 yards. The offense only had the ball for anout 19 + minutes of the first 43 minutes. Afterthis point Pitt went 34 plays for 270 yards but self destructed a few times inbewteen where as Oak offense in the 4th Q went 10 plays for 9 yards threw a pick and held the ball for 4:30 minutes.

So basically a big key tonite is OAKLANDS offense. They need to pressure a defense that has allowed 161 points in the past 5 games and they need to keep there defense fresh for the second half. It appears Lamont Jordan is healthy again and get this Art Shell praised Jerry Porter for his effort in his return to the ballclub. They have the weapons now but can the OLprotect and can Walter make the throws?

I think if you watched the oak / Den game the Raiders faced a top notch defense and had afew opps to score...missed a 53 yd fg , picked off near the end zone startting at the opp28 , fumbled inside opp 30 and so on. The played @ SF a team more there level and led 13-7 at half but were sloppy as could be. In the 3rd Q already with 13 points on the board and running plays inside the opp 40 Walter was picked twice! So that 13-7 lead quickly become a 21-13 SF lead. Then 4thQ they get a gift and have the ball at SF 8 and fumble the opp to tie away. A very sloppy game and SF had the ball inside the Oakland 45 all 4times in the 4th Q and managed just 6 points showing the Defense didnt quit. Go back early to the Balt game they literally handed balt a chance to beat them down and the Ravens couldnt...final is misleading. First 2 possession oak fumbles around there 35, 30 yard line. Two drives later , 12 plays and 31 yards and its ONLY 9-0. Its 9 cause balt started the game deep in Oak territory and went 8 plays for 25 yards and 3 points. Late 2nd Q they finally cut it to 9-3 but let the game slip away when we three minutes they allow BAlt to drive 65 yards for a TD before the half. After those 3 FGS to open the
game Balt had gone 3 and out on 3 occassions and managed 5 net yards. Third Q starts they exchange punts after 3 and outs but Oak gets picked off leaving Balt at the Oak 32. Now balt manages negative yardage and punts!! They pin Oak back and later get a safety for an 18-3 lead. Despite good starting field position again after the free kick (own 43) they punt again. On the 8th play of a 59 yd drive and inside the Balt 30 they fumble... the fumble almost goes the distance but Ravens start around the Oak 10 but again cant move the ball settle for three. Now early 4th Q and its 21-3 they both exchange INTS...however Oak gets it at the ravens 41 and manages 3 pts for 21-6. They make balt punt and down 21 -6 move the ball inside the 20 of Balt but cant convert on 4th down with 4 minutes to play and ravens go 5 plays for 81 yards in 2 minutes to ice it.

What I am getting at is the defense has held up in all 3 road games with the exceptions of when it stays on the field to long but thats every defense. SO the key is simply Oaklands offense moving teh ball versus a talented but struggling SEA defense. Is the so far anemic offense of oakland the answer? Certainly could be. I guess the scary part is Oak is middle of the pack running the ball and Sea is middle of the pack at stopping the run. While Oak defense is dead last throwing it and Sea defense is bottom 5 defening it. Is the Sea run defense better though cause people choose to just throw it against them? Whats key from oak standpoint is teher pass defense playing very well and Seneca Wallace looking very susceptibile to throwing INT's so far. Now Sea has allowd 4.8 YPC at home to Minny(thanks to Taylors 95 yard run) , Ari and NYG.

The more I look at this the harder this game gets ..if Sea is healthy I would say about -12 here. There not healthy there not playing defense and I would say more like -5.5 here.. Thing is Oakland has a couple of safties listed as questionable in Cooper and Huff meaning Gibson would start. ty Poole there nickel back is banged up. So there secondary which has been key is a question mark. There LG Sims could miss and withGallery inconsistent that could make that side of the line an issue. Sea looks like Spencer and Locklear will miss but Womack and Asworth arecapable replacements on the OL. Seattle are starting 3-0 is now just 1-3 past 4 thanks to a long FG by Brown in STL at the end ofregulation. While Oak won a game they probably didnt deserve to win last week its still a 2gm streak which breeds positive momentum.

Sea only scored 21 on offense last week and I think thats where they would end up tonite. They couldnt run the ball again and allowed 500 yards of offense to KC. they were only 10-10 versus Minny at the half before Hasselback left the game. really to me Oakland seems to be a watered down version of Minnesota. The Vikes defense is better overall and there offense are reliant on the RB and short passes.

I love OAK confidence heading into this game , lovethe fact the QB Walter is saying how embarrassed he is by last weeks play of the offense and the X-factor Jerry Porter brings to thsi team...Sea hasnt stopped the pass AND Porter& Moss are a nice duo , so can Walter get them the ball??

Basically I played +9 -116 (5x) on Monday of last week. I will keep the play but would be concerned and look to middle if this game comes of the key number of 7. There has been a slight flow of Oak money and I want to see what this game does closer to gametime..now the total I was thinking Over but a strange hard move from 37 to 35 has me digging deeper and watching cause I felt this game would see 38 points...

I'll be updating this matchup...

Okay we have a reason for the total move......severe wind and rain in Seattle throughout the nite. In a game that was seeing a nice amount of over money and being a MNF event which almsot always sees more over flow its telling IMO how hard this line has moved down...also like the Raiders more cause of the weather since they are a run offense...and pts will be scarce

So a sloppy game I a took a shot at under 35 -110 (3x) Under 21 -108 Seattle team (2x). Which if something changes I can always hedge out of.

Yesterdays Week 9 recap:
Redskins +3.5 -110 (8x) & Under 41.5 -110 (3x) ML +160 (1.5x) +13.40
TB Bucs ML -108 (5x) -5.40
Bills -3-120 (4x) +4.00
Ravens -2.5 -130 (4x) & -2.5 -110 (1x) +5.00
Lions +6 -110 (3x) & Over 47 -110 (3x) -0.30(so close)
Dolphins +14 -120 (3x) & Under 37.5 -110 (5x) -2.50(painful to lose when I had the game pegged)
Texans +7 .5 -120 1st H(1.5x) & +13 -116 (1.5x) +3.00
STL ML -138 (3x) -4.14 (only dumb play IMO)
SF +6.5 -120 (5x) +5.00
Over 41 -106 SD (7x) & Cle +13.5 -110 (5x) +12.00
Steelers -2.5 -110 (5x) Loss -5.50
Played NE -2.5 -120 (8x) & Under 49 -120 (3x) & Under 24 1st H -104 (1x) -7.64

Net : +24.56 but -7.64 @ nite so +16. 92 all day( +16.10 with everything)

Team totals -4.76(1st losing day on teams in awhile)
Over 26-108 ATL (1.5x) L
Und 22.5 +110 KC (1.5x) L
Und 19 -108 Cincy (1x) L
Und 28 -121 NYG (1x) W
Under 25 -111 Chi (1x) W
Over 25.5 -128 NE (2x) L

Teasers +6.00
Under 58 KC , Under 51.5 Cincy, Over 31 Buff (3x) W
Under 58 KC , Und 51.5 Cincy , Undre 51 Dal (3x) W

2nd H -2.06
Ov 19.5 -111 Pitt (2x) Win
Pitt -7.5 +219 (1x) L
Under 19.5 -102 Chi (3x) L

Monday NBA ~


Yesterday went welll again in the NBA. Looking at my card -

Raptors +7 -108 (2.5x) ML (1/2x) L -3.20 but hedged the Raps with 2nd H spurs-3.5 (2.5x) W +2.50 (net loss -0.70)
2nd H Over 99.5 -120 Tor (2x) Win +2.00
Philly +3 -109 (5x) SU Win +5.00
2nd H Over 93.5 -120 Miami (2x) Win +2.00
Hawks +4 -110(3x) Su Win +3.00
Over 194 -110 (6x) Loss -6.60
2nd H over 96 +108 Atl (2x) PUSH
Sonics -1 -110 (8x) Win +8.00
Under 188 -110 Houston (5x) Win5.00 & 2nd H hedge over 90.5 (1.5x) Win +1.50
1st H under 92.5 (2x) Win +2.00
NO ML -114 (5x) WIn +5.00

Net +22.20 and +4.00 4nd Half

Season Recap ~

Friday +10.00

Saturday +16.35 / +4.00 (2nd H's)/ +0.92(team totals)

Sunday +22.20 / +4.00 (2nd H's)

Sides & Totals YTD +25.87

Team Totals +5.06

Parlays + 5.84

2nd H +9.00

Opening week ~ +45.77 units

New York Knicks +7 -110 (8x) ML +260 (1x) Over 94 -103 team total (2x) Over 2nd H -111 (3x)

SUCKS -9.80 on the game , -2.06 on the team total , and +3 2nd half total
While I spotted the situation I guess I failed to realize this spread was shaded lower then it would have been..meaning books took the situation into the number...sorry!

Basically a situation play. SA has proven to struggle in back to backs but this is the 4th game in 5 nites a spot I fade the fav..

There really is not basketball arguement I could have here. Its purely about picking a spot where team A underperforms and team B overacheives...

Do like the over cause NY defense is so-so and for them to cover they muct score...still thinking


Orlando Magic -3-110 (7x) PUSH ~ Keith Bogans had a shot but made only 1 of 2

I see some focusing way to heavily on the fact Orl is playing a back to back here. Basically IMO we have Philly and Wash as teams who are equal(typical line is home team -3). The Magic lost a tough game on Fri to Philly but were -5 so the market has undervalued Orlando here slightily IMO after the loss to ATL yesterday.

Some series history had Orl winning both home games last year vs a Wash team that something like 14-27 away last season(basically the same team) and also ORL winning 4 of 5 in Orlando.

A nice spot for the Magic to get on track here Wiz havent played that well simply hanging around in Cle but never threatening and outscoring a Celtic team which doesnt exactly have loads of offense. It sgoing to be tough to win in Orl as witnessed by theer late season resurgence last season . They dismantled the Bulls and simply lost a close game to a Philly team getting it done early...

My first instinct was over but after looking at it a few times I see this game probably ending up right around 200..so no value either way....slight to the Under so gonna what till half

Still working on the rest... Milw @ Chi
First thing I think this line is a snip to high should be no higher then 5. With the total what concerns me is the fact Milw has almost no bench scoring through 3 games(think 44 points of 301). I think with Villaneuva in the mix alongside Bogut they are a mcuh better erbounding team as is Chi with Wallace. Alot less easy baskets in the paint for the both and Milw 3 pt shooting outside of Redd is questionable. bucks have struggled to crack 95 against the old Bulls now Wallace is on aboard..

Small Plays +6.5 -108(3x) & Under 191-108 (2x) 2nd H und 95 -113 (2x)

Warriors @ Mavs

You would think with Dallas 0-2 we would see a nice flo w of Mavs money but thats not the case . Instead a GS team in disarray who lost badly @ Utah after catching 6 and got crushed in there opener versus a Kobe less LAL squad. However whats key here is GS has won past 3 in Dallas and the 4th was an OT loss. Oh yeah now Don Nelson is coaching the GS team and facing his former employer. Still with everything against Dallas here this looks like a good on the court matchup to get straight. Gonna try for minus -9 but waiting on this ....like the under...cause Mavs O is out of sync.

Play: GS 1stH +5 +103 (2x) Win / so Dall -5 -114 (1x) 2nd H

Det @ Utah

The line move has be scared. With Utah playing well early on @ -3 liked Utah now we have -5. Seems high but the Jazz have beat some decent teams in Pho , GS and Hou while Det lost to Milw and beat Boston and memphis....so maybe it is worth the -5.

I know one thing and thats I like OVER. We all have that mindset of Utah equals low scoring well 107 avg through games is no fluke especially when you put up 107 on Houston(and consistent 107.108,106). Det not the defensive squad it was under Larry Brown and now Ben Wallace has changed his addy..Pistons can score though...and Utah is allow teams to shoot 35 FT per game so faryou could see 30 of 36 from this DET team from the line..

Play : Over 189.5 -110 (6x) & Utah -4 -115 (2x) / Utah -2.5 -103 2nd H (2x)

Still looking at the West Coast starts..

but played the under 195 -111 in LAC(4x).

Playing Twolves +5 -110 (4x) with Brad Miller out.

Thats all GL