Monday , November 13th NBA & NFL Thoughts

Note: In attempt to solidfy my returns I have changed my unit system slightily.

NBA -

Plays -
Under 198 -105 Boston (2x)
Under 99 -101 1st Half Boston (2x) Win +2.00
Nets ML -143 (12x) Loss -17.16
- NJ sucks! I played this wrong should have went Sonics ML and NJ -3 to hedge it. Knew it was a dangerous game but Seattle probably will be the 1st team I can remember in 15 years going 5-0 ATS on a road trip..it happens...liked the over as well. I fell asleep at the wheel here..again . Makes you wonder why NJ was sleeping thru the 1st quarter...
2nd Half Over 99 -101 NJ(3x) & NJN -5.5 +102 (3x) Wins +6.06
Knicks +6 -110 (5x) Push& ML +210 (1x) (had posted Cavs in error) L-1.00

Over 209 -105 Toronto & Golden State on Tuesday (8x)

Team Totals
Under 102.5 -108 Cle (1x) Win(102) +1.00

NCAA
Buffalo ML +164 (1x) L
Georgia Southern +20 -110 (3x) L
Over 150 +100 Fordham (2x)
Greensboro +10 -110 (3x) ML +410 (1x) L
FSU -6-108 2nd Half (1x) W
Tenn -4.5 -123 2nd H (1x)

NFL Parlay
Over 37 +100 / Panthers ML -520 (4x) pays 5.54x
2nd H Car -7 -103 (1x)
2nd H Car -14 +365 (1x)
2nd H Over 17 -106 (2x)

Thoughts -
~ Orlando @ Boston - The Celtics have played poorly to begin this season but Orlando is playing its 3rd road game in 4 nites. Orlando historically struggles in Boston dropping 9 of 10 and 14 of 16 in Beantown. Boston jumped on the Cavs at home leading by 25 in the 3rd quarter and 19 in the 4th quarter but got blitzed by a 24 -3 run late and lost by 1. Wally World sat out that game being replaced by Delonte West. Both teams have put there opponents on the FT line about 30-35 times a game which can skew the team totals. Would wait to see if Szczerbiak is playing before making a decision as the offense is really limited w/o him. Would entertain the UNDER if he is not healthy enough to play. Hard to take ORL playing 3rd in 4 nites away in a place they dont play well. Grant Hill was given Sat Nite off and should be fine here. Magic have scored 100+ in 4 games but the other three were 82-88 points. The games the offense struggled they managed only 48-80 from the FT line. On the road they are just 19 of 30FT in 3 games. Boston is inconsistent from the FT line with 2 home games were they missed 15 and 11 attempts but also having two games above 75 % at home.

Play: Under 198 Boston

~ Cleveland @ NYK - The Knicks have looked awful in 2 games ta the Garden versus Indiana and SA. They played CLE well last year winning all three ATS and going 2-1 SU. Richardson had some huge games versus the Cavs. This year Cle has proven to be inconsistent following an up and down pattern defeating SA then losing @ Charlotte and at home in OT to ATL but smoking Chicago at home only to need a 20 pt 4th Quarter rally to defeat a Wally-less Boston team by 1. So right now road chalk is not something I see as value for them. Cavs have lost 3 straight in NY and are 1-4 ATS a a favorite. On the road Cavs have struggled offensively at just 88 points per while NYK has had trouble defending allowing 107. NYK struggles have been highlighted earlyby allowingteams to bomb away and hit 11 of 21 trey vs them @ MSG. With Cle shooting 4.5 og 16 away from trey they might not be able to take advantage. Cavs have put there opponents on the 34 times and NY gets to the line 32 times. NY has made 72 % while Cavs first two games they made only about 62 %. Cavs have taken 36 attemts per but shooting just 65 % while NYK has kept teams off the line sending them just 18 times per.

Play NYK +6 -110 ML +210

~ Sea @ NJN - These situational angles have destroyed my profits early. Finally the books have overadjusted these situations and I am paying for it. I was suprised to see SEA dogged in Char and ATL and they won both but I still playe d (and paid for)the home teams heavily fading a busy SEA team on a EAST COAST trip. Now they stand 4-0 ATS on this trip and its always been hard to go perfect ATS on these trips since I have tracked this. Two obvious things concern me here as I finally think the line isnt shaded high . Its RJ being out and NJ playing OT yesterday and 3rd in 4 nites. However this line is low IMO and I have to ride NJ here at home a place where SEA has struggled. NJ had a short trip to Wash yesterday and played at 6 PM. The extended minutes for Vince and Kidd are a concern but the increased contributions from Nachbar and Kristic ws positives. Sea playing 8th in 11 nites and last of the trip here. NJ allows 4.7 for 18.3 from trey and that is Seattles key on offense as they hit 7.4 for 19.4 away from deep. The Sonics have not shot exceptional well(44.8 %) but managed nearly 85 from the FT line.

Play : NJN & lean over

NFL - TB @ CAR

All the trends point to TB here but that is a huge leap of faith looking at the past 2 games and realizing they will be w/o 3 key starters on defense Wyms, Quarles and Rice. As well as playing a Carolina team off a BYE who blew an embarrassing game on TV at home before the BYE. Scary stat is that TB has scored only 7 1st quarter points all season and against a hungry team like CAR this could mean another defecit they will have to try and overcome. Carolina has won 6 of 7 versus TB but TB has covered the past 4 in Carolina. Now while it looks like TB came back down 20-7 at Half in the 1st meeting it took 3 Carolina fumbles to give TB there 17 2nd H points. So they got alot of help in that comeback including short fields twice starting at Car 15 and there own 49 and 39. Th eflip side is TB aided Carolina as well with 2 TD drives of 31 and 59 yards setup by a Simms INT and short punt. The FG drives were 8 , 21 , 34 and 58 yds for Carolina. An interesting side note is CAR is the team that ended Simms season with the beating he took that game.

TB offensive game plan is hard to figure. You have a young QB and 'stud' young RB in Cadillac yet they ran the ball only 12 and 8 times with him past two. Yes, theytrailed noth times 14-0 but that hardly has game over written on it. The TB defense did a good job against Tiki in NY and must do the same here. However Deuce did play well 15c 123yds and ATL ran for over 300 yards. Against NO they did a great job on pass defense limiting Horn and Colston to 7 combined catches. Eli also struggled 16 of 31 for 154 yards but it was a windy day. Vick was just 10-15 for 92 yards but they carried it 44 times for 306 yards bewteen vick , Dunn and Norwood. On teh road they have allowed 24 , 17 and 14 all solid numbers but again how do the key injuries play into this.

Basically I am real hesitant to lay 10 pts here but with an offense that has gone backwarsd lately you wonder how TB can score? The Panthers have looked worse at home losing to ATL and DAL plus playing close games to Cleveland and NO. They were so-so against the Dallas run attack and thats what TB needs to do here. Carolina is not without injury as Hartwig reinjured himself and is OUT tonite though he barely played in relief vs DAL. Lucas is battling a sore groin but appears ready to play amd DeAngelo Willaims could return as well. Best to stay away for now