Wednesday, November 15, 2006

College Foootball This Week

Plays ~ (2-0 +9.80 on wed)

Thursday
Akron +6 -108 (3x) L
Under 52 -110 Pitt (2x) Loss (weather is not an issue why line bounced back to 53)
Under 28.5 -116 2ndH (2x) , Pitt +7.5 -130 (2x) ML +280 (1x)

Friday
Northern Ill +3.5 -106 (5x) ML +150 (1x) Over 48 -109 (3x)

Saturday (Noon)

Boston College -6.5 -120 (6x) Win
Iowa +3.5 -117 (3x) Loss
North Carolina +5 -109 (5x) ML +180 (1x) Win (s)
Over 39 -112 Syracuse (5x) Loss
Cuse ML -105 (2x)
Win
Baylor +21 -110 (1x) Loss
Over 46 -105 Wisky (3x) Loss
Buff +38.5 -105 (2x)
Win
Over 57 -105 Purdue (4x) Loss
Purdue -12 -108 (4x) Loss
Over 44 -104 South Carolina (2x) Win
Over 53.5 Navy -110 (5x) Loss
Navy 1st
H -17.5 -113 (2x) Win
ML Parlay Auburn-127 and Miami ML -161 (3x) Loss


Halftime Notes :
Unfortunately I decided to not play the Overs in Minnesota and Kentucky or Mich State all whic looke good early.

2nd H
Cuse PK -113 (2.5x) Win
Purdue -4 -121 (2x) Win
Penn State -9 -111 (2x) Win



1Pm
Northwestern +3 -115 (5x) ML +128 (2x) Win (s)

2Pm
Florida State -16 -105 (6x) & Under 44 -109 (3x) Losses
Tulane -1-105 (3x) PUSH
over 68 -105 Tex Tech (5x) Loss
Army +29.5 -110 (3x) Loss

Ov 53.5 -105 Army (3x) Loss
Miss State +14.5 -110 (5x) ML +496 (1/2x) Win
Iowa State either +14 or +14.5 (3x) Win

2nd H
Under 23.5 -105 FSU (2x) Loss

3Pm
Rice +3 -115 (3x) ML +118 (1x) Win (s)

3:30 Pm

Over Oregon 44.5 -110 (3x) Win
Kansas ML -125 (7x) Win

SDST +18 -11(3x) +840 ML (1/4x) Loss

Auburn ML -119 (3x) Win

New Mex +27.5 -110 (3x) Win

THEE GAME - Ohio State ML -250 (3x) Ohio State -6 -120 (5x) Win /Loss

4Pm

UNLV +10 -105 (3x) , +9 -110 (2x) ML +350 (1/2x) Win

Over 56-105 Marshall (3x) Win
Idaho +10 -106 (3x) ML +350 (1/2x)Loss

7Pm

VT -105 (2x) & +100 ML (8x) WIN- After much thought here WF is getting to much praise. yes they have played above expectations but did so as a dog. This team was +17 at home vs Clemson now they are favored vs VT who won @ Miami as chalk? FSU struggling today vs WMU sp[eaks volume IMO....just like Maryland today the fairy tale ends as WF SHOULD NOT be less then +3 here

Under 38.5 -109 Wake (4x) Win

Under 55 -105 Louisville (4x) Win
Under 40 -105 Rutgers (4x) Loss (2pt conversion!!!)

Cincy +7.5 -120 (3x) Win

Over 41.5 LSU (3x) Win
Under 45 -105 UAB (3x) PUSH
Under 74 -107 Hawaii (3x)

SJST +24.5 +101 (3x)

ASU -4 -110 (3x)Loss


Leans -

USF +17 -102
Miami ML -155
Vandy +9.5 -111 (played 5x) but will probably middle with Ainge back.
SMU +6 / Ov 49.5
Utah ML


Team Totals -
Under 13.5 West Mich -108 (1x)
Over 19.5 -116 Iowa State (1x)
Over 35.5 -108 Purdue (1x)
Over 11.5 Temple -108 (1x)
Over 19.5 -116 Miami (2x)

Thoughts~
-Miami-Ohio @ BG - Looks like bad weather so while I like the OVER here I will pass for now. Give the edge to BG but just not crazy about this game.

-Akron @ OhioU - This is a tough game but felt it should have been a FG. Two solid defenses but Akron gets the edge offensively and has played some tough road games despite the poor road record. Akrons weakness defensively has been the pass and Ohio U probably cant exploit that.

-WVU @ Pitt - Would lean towards WV here but after Pitt lost @ UConn I have no idea what there mindset is. I think WVU has scored ta least 34 on everyone except ECU so look for that to continue even against a Pitt D that has played well. Pitt should be able to throw on WVU as did Louisville & Brohm. So hoping the total continue sto slide to around 51 where I will play the OVER. Last minute change due to weather concerns and the fact the BOOKS adjusted the total lower I played the Under here. Its my experience that when totals are adjusted for weather or injury you follow the move.

-EMU @ Kent- would probably entertain the over but really no reason to touch this game.

-Cent Mich @ North Ill - I would agree that CMU is the best team in the conference but that doesnt mean they deserve to be road chalk here. A disappointing season for NI sees its QB and RB Horvath and Wolfe playing there LAST HOME game. Think last time CMU won in this series was 1997. CMU on the road has only defeated bad teams like Toledo , Temple and EMU in OT. They made a game out of the shootout at Kentucky but also trailed 21-0 and 28-7 at times. I expect another high scoring game here. While I disagree Dr.Bob has made CMU a strong play and pushe dthe line to 4.

Saturday-
- Maryland @ BC - A string of tough games and narrow wins for Maryland has to have taken a toll as well as overvalued them. Offensively I dont see much from Maryland and this is a BC defense that has allowed 10 pts TOTAL at home in its last 4 games vs Duke , Maine , Buffalo and VaTech. From a defensive standpoint I dont see much from Maryland either that I like. Lets face it Miami ,FSU and Clemson are struggling offenses and this BC offense played well in Maryland last year so what has change? Dr.Bob has pushe dthis line to 8. Well basically I havent seen enough from teh Terp D this year to think they can slow BC or keep them under 24 points. Hollenbach has done a great job protecting the ball but will need to make some plays here. Bey had 2 long TDs last week and I am sure BC has noticed..

- Iowa @ Minny - Simply thought process here...Iowa 10-1 L11 ATS versus Minny and have the better defense. Iowa lost at home thanks to dropped passes. Can they fix that? We shall see..

- NCST @ UNC - Rivalary game where NC has won the past two. Wolfpack despite there last game have not played well on the road. UNC threw some costly picks last 2 weeks but also were position to beat both GT and Wake.

- Syracuse at home can move the ball alot better then it does away and UConns defense is below average and young. With DJ Hernandez at QB the Huskie offense can move the ball consistently even against a decent defense like Cuse. The young RB Brown looks like a stud in the making. Would think about Cuse here after a young Huskie team upset Pitt at home and is now traveling.

- Mich State @ Penn State - would think about the Spartans if Stanton started.

-Oklahoma @ baylor - Sooners are banged up but no interest in laying 20 even against Baylor.Though it be worth a shot on the dog with the OU injuries and possibly look ahead to Ok State the following week. Only crap road game for OU this year...

- Miami @ UVA- Thinking about the Canes here but HATE that UVA is off a road shutout.

-Buffalo @ Wisky - Last home game(and game) for the Badgers so while they might letdown due to a soft opponent and huge win in Iowa they should at least score. Waiting to see if I can do better then 38..thinking 42-10.

- Indiana @ Purdue - The Hoosiers are awful against the PASS and the Purdue passing atatck appears to have gotten on track. Most think Indiana can make this game but I am not sure and we know Dr.Bob has oushed this line to -12...

-Temple @ Navy - Especially on the road the OWLS cannot stop anyone and a gimmick offense might cause even more struggles. Navy has made huge strides last 2 weeks offensively and look for that to continue. Temple always seeems good for some late scores..

-Mid Tenn @ South Car - Type of game Spurrier NEEDS to destroy his opponent. So its SC here or pass IMO. Wins makes SC 6-5 with Clemson on deck. One thinsg for sure looking at the OVER as it appears it will slide some...

- Tenny @ Vandy - Initially played vandy +9.5 -111 but appears Ainge will start so I willprobably get off this game...

-Ill @ Northwestern- just think Illini as a fav is a fade 0-4 SU and ATS as chalk. Northwestern has played much better with Bachar at QB and if not for some early mistakes they could have gave Ohio State some headaches. They turned it over early and that was there death sentence.

-UL Monroe @ Kentucky- Have to like Kentuckyhere cause of there explosive offense but there defense leaves alot to be desired. So for that I am entertaining the over thinking we should do at least 42-14...

-Duke @ GT - who cares

-WMU @ FSU - WMU has struggled offensively on the road outside of Ball State and this FSU defense will be its toughest test. FSU should be looking to bounce back after being SHUTOUT at home and having Jeff Bowden resign as offensive coordinator. They should not be worried about FLA next week and a win pits them at 6-5.

- Mizzou @ Iowa State - simply cant take Iowa State + anything but cant lay 2 TDS on the road with Mizzou either.

- UCF @ Tulane - Without Kenny Smith I dont like UCF at at all... that leaves only Moffett or Israel. Ricard has good numbers (despite teh recnt benching)and UCF pass defense has so many mental lapses.

- Ok State @ Tech - Should be an offensive explosion. Ok State has allowed at least 30 points in all it sroad games and we know Tech can score. Ok State has the same offensive explosiveness whethere home or away.. Ok St allows 9.3 YPA through the air away and Tech 7.8 at home (8.3 L3 games )

- Houston @ Memphis - Th e tigers cannot stop anyone and expect 38 at least from Houston but with thetotal now at 60 its a no play..

- Army @ ND - Thinking over 54 but what scares me is ND keeping it vanilla versus Army with USC on deck. Still hard to imagine ND scores less then 38 here... Look ahead game cleary and took the points (late) and again a Dr.Bob play.....as he cites ND inability to cover big spreads under Weis

-Ark @ Miss State - Great sandwich spot for the Hogs. Huge home win vs Tenn with LSU on deck. Bulldogs off a bye and a win @ Bama...

-Utah St @ Boise - Johnson collapsed lung meansno interest

- ECU @ Rice - Almost have to ride a hot RICE squad here as a dog. A winless rice tam last season played well @ ECU...over 55 ??

- Tulsa @ SMU - looking @ SMU especially if I can get 7. They played a solid game versus Houston last week but collapsed late.

- Mich @ Ohio State - Have this line pegged at -7.5 so seeing which it moves before I act. think we see this -7 turn into -6 but only a guess...-6 I play the Buckeyes...

- Zona @ Oregon - Even a solid defense like the Wildcats will struggle to keep Oregon under 30 poinst at home especially after a loss. Tuitama actually gives Zona a QB.....

- Kan State @ Kansas- the jayhawks have played well at home only losing 4th Q meltdowns to A&M and Okie State while KSU is off the HUGE UPSET at home versus Texas. Young team tends to letdown after a big home win they travel the follwoing week.

- SDST @ TCU - While TCU defense is top notched the offene has been less then impressive. WIth SD showing improvement in recent weeks I thought this was closer to -14 then 17 or 18 pts....

- NM @ BYU - ALways a tight gameI think BYU finally gets inflated here. Have this at more like -21 but the concern is Porterie's health as he has sparked this team.

_ Wyoming @ UNLV - The Rebels palyed better then the boxscore indicates last week. Wyoming just doesnt show much offensively to think they can cruise over an opponent on the road. BYU just embarrassed them

-UTEP @ Marshall - The Thundering Herd has put up 40 past 2 home games and UTEP slowing UAB isnt inpressing anyone...expect a shootout here

- Idaho@ Fresno - An unimpressive win last week vs NMST doesnty change much for me. Idaho had played poorly past 2 but is off a bye week....

- vaTech @ Wake- play on the under sort of self explanatory

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