Thursday Thoughts 12:35 start

Padres +109 (3units)

At first Harang did look cheap but then I researched this. Reds have dropped 20 of the past 27 day games. Basically cause of lack of offense as only Encarnacion(.295) , Hatteberg(.278), Aurilia (.268) and Freel (.261) are above .260 in the day. Now SD has 6 hitters above .288 and seven above .264 in day starts. The Reds also have only scored 5 runs or more twice in the past 2 games. The series opener with LaRue's walkoff HR was one of them. Basically I think SD is simply playing better now.

Hensley's road starts arent that strong buts it due more to about 4 crap starts then not being able to pitch on the road IMO. Take out his home start vs Cincy and Hensley has allowed 2 runs just 1 earned total in 3 of his past 4 starts spanning 21 innings. In the day he is 4-1 ( Sd 8-3) with a 4.25 ERA and only 4 Hrs allowed...think ballpark here s thats key!! In only 3 of his past 10 starts has he allowed more then 2 runs.

Harang has dropped 5 of 6 starts and is not pitching in his ideal situations. His home / away splits show a 2.93 era but 4.78 home era! At nite his era is 3.44 and the day just 4.50! basically it seems he always to many Hrs at home(16-8).

With Cincy not hitting and doing less then year in day starts runs could be scarce against Hensley who has been solid( think 6 innings and 2 runs here). With Harang while he might go 7+ innings it seems likely he would allow about 4 or 5runs.

Result : SD wins 4-2 and I nail the SP stats!(+3.27 units)

Giants -187 (3units)

Matt Cain pure and simple here well and an Aaron Cook fade. Cook has dropped 8 of his past 10 starts against SF and those victories werent exactly well pitched games. After winning 3 of his first 4 away starts he has dropped 8 of 9 away now. Part of the problem is they dont hit for Cook on the road (3.38 runs when he starts) and overall lost 19 of his 29 starts.

Cain's last 5 starts have him pitching 34 innings and allowing only 17 hits 2 runs just 1 earned( 14 BB -36 K & 0 HR)!! cain has been tough on COL in his 4 career starts vs them (winning three and losing 2-1). This yr in 2 home starts he has allowed 3 runs in 12 2/3 innings against them.

In the 2nd Half Cain has made 7 starts at home with SF going 5-2. He has gone at least 6 2/3 in those starts and 49 2/3 innings allowing only 30 hits and 8 runs. With a 14 BB to 50 K ratio and just 2 Hrs. In the day he has been equally a s tough with a 3.53 ERA & 1.22 Whip. In 12 starts he went 74 innings allwoing only 51 hits with 39 BBs and 84 K's (just 5 Hrs)!

Guess someone really loved Colorado....saw -173 late and as high as -205 at one point

Result : SFG win 5-0 and Cain is superb!(+3.00 units)

Over 5 First 5 Innings -102 Cubs & LAD (3units)

Wade Miller simply not ready to pitch in the majors IMO. Went this way cause the pens have been solid on both sides.

Some trends have LAD 29-14 OVER in day games. Cubs 9-3 Over in Sept and 12-4 Over @ Home witha 9 or 9.5 total. Cubs day games 42-26 Over and 26-16 Over vs LHP.

Result : FUCKED! my own fault should have stayed away. Pagan out at home , 1st and 2nd out LA cant score and Pierre picked off then a single !! (-3.06 units) NOW Iam really fucking PISSED liked LA and should have played the game over. Nothing like losing 3 units when you should have won 6!!!

Night

Baltimore -116 (3units) & Under 10.5 +100 (5units)

Loewen has been somewhat impressive and I am willing to overlook the beating he took at Fenway cause he repeatedly has turned in solid outings vs the Yankee lineup(7runs in 24 innings). Then we see Manny looks OUT again and I noticed the last time Boston won vs a LHP on the road was July 24th in Oakland against Zito. Since then 7 straight losses with little on offense( 1er last 24 innings away against LH starters(last 4 ) and lost 12 of past 15 against LH's).

Orioles are up and down vs LHP but I cant back DiNArdo on the road even with two decent outings vs Balt this year.

As for the total I have mentioned Boston wose offensively well Balt tends to struggle vs LHP and as Imentioned DiNArdo 2 decent starts already vs them.

Braves -123 (3units)

Trying to avoid the sweep with there best SP on the hill. James has won 5 of 7 and sports a 1.96 ERA past 7 starts.

Under 5 First 5 Innings -112 Atl & Philly (just 2units now) & Under 9 +100 (2units)

As I mentioned James 1.96 ERA past 7 starts spanning 46 innings and 7-2 3.15 ERA @ Nite. He was soli allowing 1 run in 6 innings in his lone starts vs Philly. Moyer has pitched well as Philly outside of the NYM start and turned in some nice work vs the NL in 7 starts. Philly also has managed only 6 runs past 3 games against LHSP. Take out James bad start at home vs NY and he has allowed just 19 earned in 46 2/3 innings

Moyer was solid at home vs ATL as well going 7+ innings allowing 3 runs. In 3 of 4 with ATL he went at least 6 inn and didnt allow more then 3 runs. With Seattle he threw 3 gems vs the NL...24 Innings and 5 runs just 15 hits and 5 BB's.

Might play the game under as well but thinking 5-3 would ahve been on it had it stayed @ 9.5.

Under 9.5 +108 NYY & TB (5units)

The Yanks have CY Wang on the hill tonite who has gone under in 11 0f 15 home starts , 6 straight at home and 8 of 9 at home. Basically in his last 13 home starts( started slow after being hurt in Spring) he has allowed more then 2 runs just 3 times (4,4,and 5 in his worst start to LAA). After struggling vs TB last year he has been rock solid allowing just 11 hits and 3 earned in 24 1/3 innings.

Outside of Kazmir , Sheilds has been there best starter. Only knock is he is real solid or pretty bad. He already has one solid performance atthe Stadium and about 3 striaght solid road starts. The Red Sox are on deck so maybe a look ahead....

Value Play TB +1.5 +118 (unit)

RESULT- Canceled due to Wang being replaced by Karstens

Replaced by: Under 10 +103 (3units)NYY&TB.

LAA -126 (3units)

Really just riding LAA here with Escobar and fading Volquez. Edision has ben shelled lately and Escobar pitching fairly well and owns some nice career starts @ Arlington as an Angel. Volquez has 1 quality start in 8 career ones and Texas is 1-7 when he starts.

Looking at KC and the Under 9.5 In KC also slight lean towards under in Minny!

Last game of the nite:

Royals +107 (2units) & Under 9.5 +108 (3units)

Both teams struggle against LHP as Seattle produces 3.8 runs and KC 4.4 but has lost some key bats in Sanders , Sweeney and Teahen recently. The pens are question marks but hopefully its no worse then 3-3 after 6 innings. Seattle has managed to score 4 runs or less in 9 of 12 and is coming off a shutout which they are just 4 -10 SU next game. They are 23-16 UNDERS vs LHP, 10 -3 Under on Thurs (silly trend) and 8-3 under in Sept...sleepy bats. Washburn has struggled on the road but has enjoyed pitching @ KC in his career. Also Sea 10-3 under vs teams with losing records in the 2nd Half.
Thats all!
GL- Passed on the Reds over but looking hard at the Dodgers here(maybe Under SF)

College Football Week 3

Just decided that if you like Maryland you should be taking the ML as well . It's grossly INFLATED by several hundred dollars and that tells me to many people think WV can't lose and you know what usually happens with that mentality!! Worth a shot !!

Maryland +17.5 -105 ( 3units) Play the ML +890 (1unit)

West Virginia is certainly a talented team but they are somewhat unproven in my eyes. In White and Slaton they have 2 studs but look at who this duo has faced. They won @ Bowl game vs Georgia but these guys were 7 point dogs and the defense did not impress me. Last meeting Hollenbach was able to make some plays thru the air but his recieving corp was decemitated. Now thsi year they have featured run heavy game plans. right now banking this is to many points to give a decent team who is road tested thanks to the ACC and a rival. Hopefully Maryland can run enough to open the passing game up behind that massive OL and also keep theball out of WV's hands. Last year WV played an up and down Pitt team at home as 15 pt favs and didnt pull away till dominanting the 4th quarter. I' gladly take a 28 -14 WV win but 31 -14 would do just fine as well.

Still thinking about Toledo & Kansas

However I am in the process of finishing up the Sat card

Noon start

Illinois (buy down) -2.5 -120(15 units) hardly ever play 10 units so 15 is special

Leap of faith here. My main reasoning is the Orangeman just dont have much of an offense. This team lost 20-10 @ Wake and Mauck was injured late 3rd quarter of a tied game. Then they get Iowa at home without Drew Tate and go into OT!

At home they ran 82 plays for 280 total yards! Try 44 on the ground for 70 yards and 38 thru the air for 210 and managed a 10-10 tie after regulation! In the opener they ran 49 plays for 141 total yards with 30 runs for 91 yards and 19 pass attempts ( think 6 completions) for 45 Yards!

Syracuse has made strides on defense but this team is 1-10 lyr and 0-2 now so 1-12 under the new head coach which was a home win vs Buffalo! Last year on the road 0-5 and lost by 24 (3x) , 19 and 17. Against solid competition they scored 17 (2x) , 14 ,10 and 7 . However in three games the scored late 4th quarter TD's when the game was well decided and also a defensive TD so of 8 Tds the offense really only earned 4 all season!!

I thought Illinois looked terrible @ Rutgers but the defense IMO looked respectable and I am banking on Pierre Thomas. Illinois started the Zook era in tremendous fashion with a huge come from behind home win vs Rutgers then they trampled SJST and lead @ California to the start of the 4th quarter since then though they seemed to fall apart.

Looking at this closer a Big Ten bottom feeder outweighs a Big East bottomfeeder. Really think the under might a play here as 39 seems high. The Illini win 24-14 IMO.

(3 Units)
UAB +17 -110

Troy +17.5 -110

Really with out any Bullshit just think these numbers are to big. Troy looked impressive @ FSU with its JC QB transfer and GTech offensive always seems to underachieve.

The Bulldog offense also has struggled and UAB has played real solid defense and alreday played well @ Oklahoma.

Ohio U +15.5 -110 (5units)

Not overly impressed with the Rutgers offense to this point( Ray Rice has looked good). Ohio U coming off a big upset and I dont see how this qualifies as a letdown spot...still on the road as big dogs. Its homecoming @ RU though and the place should be in a frenzy. Just think Solich's boyz fly under the radar and have enough to compete here. Scarlet Knioghts have been notorious for letting teams hang around and get back in games during the 4th quarter. Ohio U is 2-0 and coming off a SU win as 19 pt dogs @ Northern Illinois who probably has at least as good an offense as RU if not better ( Garrett Wolfe and Phil Horvath). Ohio had 500 yards of offense and after the 1st quarter did a decent job on WOlfe and held NI to 9 points over the final 3 quarters. Though very lucky this team did beat Pitt at home early on last year 16-10.

Northern Illinois -23-106 ( 7 units)

Thanks to a home loss to Ohio U coupled with Buffalo's suprising performance at BG we get a soft line. Buffalo needed OT at home wo win 9-3 vs Temple!! All that last weeks 48 -40 loss @ Bowling Green shows em is how bad they actually are. So 2 weeks and 2 OT's but I cant figure out how you gan less then 300 yards of offense and score 40 points? I know a kick return and nblocked punt were ez 6's but come on 32 pass attmepts and 21 completions for 138 yards!!!!!

BG ran for 356 yards and had about 600 yds of total offense( three 100 yd rushers for BG). Buffalo had only 356 yds of total offense at home to Temple....Not sure what to make of NI's defense but not extremly impressed with the offense. Even if they could muster 21 points I think we could see 45 by the home team. Garrett Wolfe should have a field day! last note BG was -22...NI is clearly better then BG but laying only 1 point more! Bounce back game

Probably unlikely I will write these all up this week....

2 Units

Minnesota -41.5 -101 (2units)

Temple IMO has shown they really are that bad and there offense is even worse. Minny likes running it up vs inferior out of conference opponents and if they get to 56 ....well Temple has what 3 poinst so far this yr!

Cincinnatti +29.5 -103 (2units)

Cincy is young and bad but a situational fade. Huge win on the road vs Ohio State and penn St on deck. Might keep it real simple to avoid any game film. You score 35 points and its tough to cover a 30 pt spread.

Central Michigan +1 -103

Akron beat a bad and underacheiving NCST squad. CMU won @ Akron last year and I like how they played against BC.

SD ST +14 -110

Really a Wisky fade.

Tenny +3.5 -110

I think most of us are shocked at Tenny being the dog at home at here. Whats best is people thinking Fla should be favored...the AF game was a look ahead spot.

Baylor +13 -110

To many points

TCU +1.5 -104

Fading TT as road chalk even this small.

UL Monroe +24.5 -108

Bama struggling on offense

FIU +5 +102

Really think BG is that bad...OT at home vs Buffalo. The defense has bad for awhile now

Ok St -29.5 -108

Should see at least 42here and I dont think FAU has 14 in them

3 Units

Northwestern -17 -109

Nice bounce back spot against a team who cant stop the run. Hopefully to much focus was on the late Coach randy Walker in the home upset last week. Plus 3 rd straight away...

Auburn -3 -120

Home team owns the series and I just feel the losses of Addai and Skylar Green are felt here

Nevada -2.5 -104

Nevada always tough at home and CSU hasnt looked like much

Stanford -1 +100

Edwards won 41 -38 @ Navy last year and dont see why it cant happen and wont happen again.

5 Units

Marshall +10 -107

The Thundering Herd had them beat at home last year and it seems as if KSU offense is even worse this year( 0 TDs on offense vs E.ill)

Over 52 -110 Mich St & Pitt

Expect the Panthers to break the 30 point mark here and Stanton shouldnt have much trouble getting 24 or so.

Michigan (bought) +6 -120

Was huge on ND last week however I feel that Michigan is much better prepared due to experience for this matchup. ND got some breaks early that really helped to keep PSU down. ND has won past 2 but as decent size dogs.....

Oregon -4.5 -106

Feel that Oregon will be able to score on this OU defense and not confident in the OU offense. Especaiily the new startes on the OL or Paul Thompson as OU has struggled somewhat 1st 2 games.

Teaser Miss St -1 , Ok St -19.5 , A7 M -17 (5units)

Miss St can play defense and at home should score enough on Tulane, the back 2 should be high scoring games with the dogs having inept offenses. Havent played and might subsitute A&M for someone else.

Leans -

BYU @ +6.5 or +7

Not impressed with the BC defense and Beck can air it out....

Virginia -10 -109

Really like fading the dog off a home upset but Cavs scare me that much I am trigger shy

Under 52 Lville

Since Miami's Offense is non existant if they can contain Lville its plausable. Problem is Miami hast stopped many good offenses lately....see LSU

Wash +3

Fade Fresno away

Clemson +4.5

FSU has zero running game and Clemson deserved to win @ FSU. Scare point is how bad Clemson plays @ FSU

Neb +18 and over 57

Thinking shootout and hoping Nebraska can score enough but I could see mid 20 win by USC.

A&M -27

Not sure I should fade the Army defense

UCF +1 -101

This is what I am thinking in addition to what was posted yesterday. Good Luck feel free to comment andhopefully I can expand on these

GL

WEDNESDAY thoughts (MLB

2:10 start

Under 8 -110 Houston & StL(3units)

Houston is trying to avoid being swept in a crucial series and sends out its ace SP. Oswalt has pitched well in his career @ Busch(obviously just 1 start at the new one) 10 runs in 39 innings and 6 straight unders. He is also 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA in only 5 day starts. He has allowed 3runs or less in 6 consecutive starts and tends to be at his best in his career in teh months of AUG & SEPT.

Marquis has strung together consecutive good outins allowing 5 runs in 14 innings. Both SP are showing the abilityu to get deep into this game limiting the pens. A plus since Izzy is out and Lidge ineffective mostly this year. I am concerned with Marquis on 3 days rest BUTthat should theoritically be a good thing for a sinker ball pitcher. These SP squared off twice in May this year and one of those was Jason's best start.

Bottom line is Houston doesnt hit during the day 725 abs and 15 hrs from this lineup. While StL has just gaudy DAY numbers and record to boot. Thing is we always hear good pitching beats good hitting. So here's to hoping Oswalt is sharp and STL only scores 4 times...

Value Play - Cardinals +137 (unit)

Result : Houston wins 5-1 (+2.00 units)

Figure STL has a tremendous offensive advantage here and STL could deliver a knockout punch. Trendwise the Home plate UMP does well for Home teams especially dogs. Think 5 straight home wins and 6 straightvunders for Barrett.

Well a GREAT JOB by Jason Marquis!!! Guess I should have not overlooked the 3 days rest situation as much as I did.


3:35 PM

Under 9.5 -104 LAA & CHWSOX (5units)

Garcia has success against LA going 13-3 with a 2.66 ERA in 13 career starts. As a WSox he has fared just as well in 6 starts . In lA he has allowed 7 runs in 23 innings and at home 8 runs in 21 1/3 innings backing a trend that he pitches better away(which is holding true in 2006 really).

Saunders has 2 bad starts in his career that has been rock solid to date. Take out that bizarre outing vs NY and he has allowed 4 earned and 7 runs in 34 1/3 innings of 5 home starts(only 1 Hr)

The WSox trio of Dye , Thome and konerko is slumping going 2 for 34 last 3 games which is good news since both lineups have solid offensive day splits. Sox are 7-3 UNDER in Sept and LA 8-1 UNDER. Silly trend has chicago being 14-7 UNDER on WED this yr.

LAA -116 (3units)

Outside of the career stats why would you like Garcia and Chicago here?? Saunders as has been extremely tough to score on and Garcia has a handful of decent starts on the road but most he is allowing 5 runs or so. WSox have been fading and LA is 8-3 in Sept now. Not to mention the Wsox pen has had some problems of late.

Result: WSox win 9-0 ( +1.68 units)

Mariners -101 (3units)

Basically just riding Baek/ Seattle and fading Toronto. Baek has improved in each outing and Seattle has been inconsistent on the road IMO. Seattle is 25 -18 vs the EAST this season.


Under 8.5 -108 Seattle and Toronto (2 units)

Just riding the tons of Under trends here with good SP on the mound.

Result : Jays win 10-0 (-5.19 units)

Brewers w/ Sheets -133 (3units)

Fading Chacon and his 5 innings while banking that MILW will avoid teh sweep with its ace on the hill. Sheets has been tough on pitt in his last 2 starts while Chacon is impossible to figure out unless you believe he will keep alternating fairly decent starts and awful starts teh rest of the way( he's due for fairly decent.

Under 8.5 -109 Milw & Pitt (2units)

Two slumping offenses..........

Result Brewers win 2-1 ( +5.00 units)

Over 10 +112 Philly & ATL Game 1 (2units)

Davies says he sees improvement but the numbers dont bear it yet. Wolf hasnt pitched well for the most part this year since returning and ATL has always given him trouble.

Result : 6-5 final ( +2.24 units)

Diamondbacks -139 (5units) CHANGE to (3units)

Arizona trying to avoid being swept at home and in the season series sending out Livan to avenge his loss last week against his former team in his former home. Really this is just be fading Armas and his Nats on the road. Armas has been rocked in three of his past 5 road outings and dropped 6 of 7 away since starting teh year off fairly well in his road starts.

Result : Dbacks win 4-2 (+3.00units)

Marlins -108 (7units)

Glavine has a 5.06 road ERA this year and there still is no way of figuring out what to expect from him. More importantly Olsen continues to pitch well and NY has dropped 11 of 15 against LHP. Which many point to having do with Nady being dealt and Green and Chavez both LH seeing most of those abs. Plus the slide of David Wright who has recently heated up. Before his earlier win Glavine had dropped 4 staright in Fla as a Met. Fla is 13-4 at home past 17 and gave the NYM a win yesterday. That pen is scary!! But Stultz , Kuo and james held nY to 1 run in 3 games on the recent NY homestand....not exactly CY canditates.

Result : Mets win 7-4 (-7.56 units)

Need to vent here cause the METS FUCKING SUCK!!! What a joke that they get every break possible!! There pen is solid but thats it! Fucking BS squibbler by Delgado and FUCKING Wild Pitch that Olivo had 10 days to compose himself and get the runner at home. Ruined my whole fucking nite and for cinsecutive nites they dont deserve it. Mets suck and will be annihilated by the AL!

Padres -139 (3units)

Not crazy about paying to back Peavy away but he shut them down last outing inPetco. Cincy has lost 11 of 16 and the offense is slumping but thanks Bochy pulling all of his regulars late in teh game yesterday SD was left with zip on offense. SD despite blowing the game yesterday still has a huge edge in the pen.

Result : SD 10-0 ( +3.00 units)

Under 10 -110 Cle & KC (3units)

Westbrook sports a 2.80 ERA and hasnt allowed an earned run in hsi apst 2 outings at home vs KC. DelaRosa has 3 decent away starts under his belt and is coming off an impressive start in KC vs NYY. Hopefully that Blister on his hand isnt an issue(deLaRosa)

Result : 6-2 Final (+ 3units)

Orioles -131 (3units)

Bedard on the hill , No Manny and Wake offthe DL.

Result : O's win 4-0 ( +3.00)

Under 10 -104 NYY & TB (5units)

Lets face it lidle has been awful on the road and solid at the Stadium. HAmmel has ben decent in all his starts and I wouldnt be suprised to see the Yankee bats stay abit quiet after exploding for 13 runs in 3 innings yesterday and then going to sleep. TB couldnt hit off NY until we brought in Dotel who simply is not ML ready yet.

Result ; 8-4 Final ( -5.20 units)

Fucking Mets ruined a great job by me! Again!

New additions:
Parlay NYY -255 / Cleveland -205 ( Loss -1)

Under 8.5 -106 LAD / ChiC (2units)

Result : LAD wins 6-0 (+2.00 units)

NFL Week 2 Thoughts

Only posted the Monday Nite games in week 1 which was a debacle. This is all preliminary.

Over 37 -101 Miami & Buffalo (5units)

Be patient here waiting to see if this dips below 37 but dont let 37 get away either. Both defenses had solid 1st Halves before IMO showing there true colors. Buffalo playing @ NE watched as the Pats went 12 plays 93 yds for a TD , then 14 plays for 63 yds for a short FG , and 11 play 53 yds to end the game and run the clock out. On 1 second half possession Brady was picked on his 1st attempt. Last year Lee Evans had 3 1st Quarter TD's in Miami from Losman and thats a matchup they will look to exploit again. Chambers had a huge 4th quarter finishing with 15 catches for 238 yards. Both defenses had to little to say in stopping opponents running games in the opener. The Pats ran up and down the field on Buffalo and Ronnie Brown will be licking his chops here. Was really unimpressed with Miamis revamped secondary as well. While buffalo did little after the first quarter they gave away alot of momentum in the opening drive of the second half by getting stuffed on a 4th and 1 and NE's 7 yd line. They had moved 10 plays for 69 yards and the failure to kick the FG or convert IMO opened the door for the Pats to come back(down 17-7 at the time, could have been 20-7 or so). Just seems like atotal based on past reputations.

Total watch 42 -101(over ) Cincy & Cleveland

The more I look at this matchup with Cleveland banged up in the secondary and Cincy probably getting Housh back it seems enticing. Cleveland should have allowed alot more then 19 points to New Orleans. They had 3 FG's inside the yd line( two inside the 5 yd line) and a better offense would have executed IMO. Cincy had a big 2nd Quarter and IMO just cruised afterward. Real hard for me to believe the Bengals dont get at least 28 - 31 points here. Cleveland lost Jurevicus to injury but didnt play all that bad in the 2nd Half vs New Orleans. Cincy had the benfit of playing against a new watered down OL that is much worse then I expected. I am thinking Cle usually plays Cincy tough and should manage at least 14-17 points here.

Lions +9.5 -115

Lions received 7 points or more on 3 occassions in 2005 and covered ATS on 3.

Texans +13 -103

Just one of those spots were Indy could be real flat after the Manning Bowl. The Colts defense didnt look that good and maybe karma pays back that NYG BS loss. From what I understand the 'sharps' played this at 14 and 15 which is why the number dropped.

Over 42 -112 Philly & NYG

McNabb was able to spread the ball around vs Houston and NY struggled stopping 3rd conversions and in general against Peyton. Philly will be without Lito Shephard is OUT and Ron Hood will start in his place and expect NY to attack that.

Raiders +11.5 +100

I know Oakland looked terrible but this number is ridiculous IMO. most people didnt think Balt could win in TB now they think they will crush Oakland?? Hopefully the deal Porter by this game and get that headache resolved. I just wasnt overly impressed with Balt's offense and Oaklands defense wasnt that bad except for the penalties. Ravens go 80 yards for the opening TD and then what? Hardly anything till the TB defense is exhausted after continous 2 minute offensive possessions. I am still in shock how bad the Oak OL looked but this offense just has to many weapons to be so poor again. I though Oakland played well on the road in its first 5 road games but fell apart afterwards.

Packers +2 +-102 (7units) & ML +116 (3units)

Ridiculous line!!! A team that lost 52 -3 @ Lambeau last season is now favored there?? GB lost to a solid playoff team in Chicago, who did the Sainst beat ...the F'N Browns! I think GB struggled some in pass defense but the Saints didnt impress me in the passing game. They did have a nice day running it and GB has been tough to run in Lambeau. NO had poor efficiency in the red zone going just 1/4 and 0/2 in goal to go. GB allowed allowed only 1 offensive TD and it was a nice pass thrown 40-50 yds to Berrian. Not sure NO has a deep threat to spread the defense. GB should benefit greatly from Koren Robinson if he is able toplay. Just a tremendous overreaction IMO.

Falcons +5.5 -102 looking to buy to 6(7units)

TB will need to bounce back and you couldnt have selected a better opponent as TB has won 3 staright in the series. As well as 4 of 6 in ATL and 7 of 10 overall. Vick was solid but his completion percentage was lacking and lets face it they wont run all over TB like Carolina. carolina was missing its star WR whats so impressive about that win?? Bucs were 5-3 away last year SU and 3-1 ATS as a dog. Loooking for TB to get healthy on the OL( and Quarles @ LB) and curious to see how bad Kearney and Abraham got hurt.

Teams who were shutout past 3 years are 12-8 SU next game and played all 3 from last week as UNDERDOGS.

Here are the 4 PM starts:

Over 44 SF & STL / SF +3

Like the total more. Really cant say that STL defense improved all that much because I felt it was Denver just imploding more then anything. Bottom line is you have to expect this to be a close game played in the 20's at least. SF defeated the Rams both meetings last year and you have to like what we saw from Alex Smith and Co in Arizona. The defense leaves some to be desired but thats why we expect STL to score some. Frank Gore looked good and dont let the absences of Larry Allen and Jonas Jennings worry you cause they missed much of the opener anyway. The Rams allowed 160 yards at home on the ground! Then double check and see Alex Smith threw for 286 yards on the road!! SF had 217 yards rushing @ STL last year and Stephen Jackson hasnt been solid running against SF.

Over 47 -104 Seattle & Arizona

The Cardinal defense was extremely unimpressive and thats not good news considering there next opponent. Seattle scored 30+ both games last year and saw Shaun Alexander runs for 313 yds in 2 games!!! Then remember that outside of a 17-10 victory in SF the Arizonas defense allowed at least 28 points in all of there road games not including the last game of the season( so 6 of 7). We know the firepower Arizona is now packing and hopefully a few more of those drives turn into 7 's on the board instead of 3. Thinking 31-17 is reasonable since only NY 21 and Atl 18 topped 17 points.

Thinking KC +10.5 and Under 40-113 KC & Den

Huard probably isnt going to do much but we still have LJ and expect Herm to run a ton!

Jets +6 -105 (also Under 37 possibly)

New Englan unimpressive in a 2 point home win vs Buffalo. My honest feeling is this team is in turmoil as players continually get discarded there and really they are thin @ WR. Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown combined for 4 catches with Gabriel and Jackson not playing. The NYJ defense played well until momentum sawyed Tenny's way after a few botched FG's.

Initial thoughts

Tuesday thoughts

Wow! Did I suck last nite. Really embarrassing performance by myself on the heels of a nice (13-7) unposted weekend. Thats why I always say you need to post everyday .

Indians -201 (3units) & Under 9.5 -102 (5units)

Last start of the year for Sowers since they want to limit his innings. Think he is on a 9 game run where he has allowed 3 runs or less and actually 2 runs or less 8 times. KC is missing Teahan and probably Sweeney with Hafner done for the year in Cleveland. Some real solid sticks missing. KC only 10-33 vs LH SP this season and Hernandez has just 2 excellent away starts since his return from the DL. The Tribe had been hot at home wining 11 of 12 and playing extremely well against KC of late winning 9 of 10 and seven straight at the Jake. Only German and DeJesus have solid numbers against LHP and you feel Sowers will go all out tonite. KC is .200 last 10 games against LHP and .244 away.

Red Sox -104 (3units)-1.5 +160 (2units) & Over 10 -102 (2units)

You hate backing a team who has dropped something like 17 of 22 away. However Cabrera nevers seems to pitch well against Boston dropping four of five starts against them since the start of 2005 and his longest outing is 5 2/3 innings vs them. His recent success at home is a concern but Boston is always tough on Balt(think 11-1 this yr and 17-8 L 25 @ Camden). Balt 2-8 last 10 and 15-30 vs LH SP this year. One edge is Balt did see Randy Johnson last nite and hit him fairly well.

Over 9.5 -114 NYY and TB (2units)

Hard to not like NY since the Rays are 2-20 away since the Break but this lineup is improving IMO. We dont know what to expect out of Moose since he is trying to get back in form and being a touch SP you just dont know what to expect IMO. With Mo out of the picture it also clouds the pen picture.

Tigers -130 (2units)

Detriot is sliding but Kennt Rogers isnt part of the reason. Texas although a verysolid road team is hitting just 250 on the road vs LHP. Rogers has won 11 of 14 home starts and has a 2.80ish ERA at home. Padilla hasnt been sharp lately pitching so-so or poorly in four of his last 5 outings.

LAA -126 (5units)

BAsically youhave the inconsistent Buerhle on the hill who really has had more trouble on the road facing Ervin Santana. Santana loves pitching at home winning 11 of 15 starts witha 3.17 ERA(compared to 5.67 away for Buerhle). LAA is 26-20 vs LHP and playing much better lately then Chicago although LAA's bats are quiet lately.

Marlins -114 (2units)

Josh Johnson has terrific numbers at home and versus NY this year while Oliver Perez has been a train wreck on the road.

Padres -115 (5units)

Chris Young is 10-2 away (.251 ERA and .193 BAA)which is suprising since Petco is so pitcher friendly. Cincy has ben sliding and while Milton has been pitching well he hasnt been winning. He has lost 9 of 13 home starts with a 5.60 ERA and struggled in 2005 at home as well. The park is just not conducive to his style( fly ball pitcher). SD 300 L10 vs LHP and .281 on the season away vs LHP. Cincy will probably be w/o Junior as well.

Under 8 +105 or 8.5 -110 LAD & Chicago(5units)

Three keys:

1- Strong wind blowing from center
2- Lowe pitching extremely well lately and being a sinkerballer.
3- LAD struggling vs LHP, scored just 2 times in 3 games started by LHP recently ...see Doug Davis , Chris Capuano and Tom Glavine

Thats all I think. Good Luck

Really didnt have enough free time lately BUT I AM BACK NOW!!

Monday Nite Football 9/11

Early Game:

Skins ML -199 (3 Units)

I went ML cause I just couldnt see how Minny can win this game. You have a new revamped OL which will not be at it's best tonite(needs more reps together and in a visiting stadium). It was and has been extremely tough to run on the Skins in Washington. The only backs that had success were LT , Alexander(only the 2nd Half) and Tiki to a degree. Basically guys with better track records then Chester Taylor. Otherwise there arent many yards to be found for opponents. Thats leaves the passing game. Is Brad johnson throwing to Taylor , Robinson , WIlliamson and his TE's going to scare anyone?? Yes, hypothecially these WR's are capable of big plays and days BUT Look at what Greg Williams did to better offenses in the postseason. Really hard to see how Minny tops 14 points here w/o the aid of a Defensive score or punt or kick return TD.

This Viking team was 3-5 away last year but was getting 9 vs NYG and 6 vs GB!!! They won SU but watched the other teams self destruct. NY lost 24-21 and didnt allow an offensive TD. Then Minny won @ DET as favs . Not very impressive. What is new about this years version?? They have always struggled outdoors and all 5 losses were by at least a TD last year. Think about getting 6 @ GB and 9 @ NY......isnt Wash clearly better then GB and a notch below NY?? I think so ... Minny had 9 wins and all against bad teams ....best road win @ NYG and best home win vs STL. Then Det and GB twice and Chi in week 17 , thats 7 wins the other 2 home wins vs New Orleans and Cleveland. Excited about Minny yet??? They added Tank Williams cause opposing QB's were compiling lofty yardage totals against them and drafted Greenway both are OUT for the year. They lost there 2 best WR's from last year in Burleson and Koren Robinson(at least best talents if not statistically)

They had 9 TD's away last 4 games but 4 were either defensive , punt or kick returns and another was a 80 yd TD pass. Which sort of backs up my 10-14 pt range I see Minny getting without some help from a defensive or special teams TD.

Now Wash stunk all preseason ( see Al Saunders dropping 10 staright preseason)but that happened last year as well. They did start slow offensively after that last year and wont see much of Portis tonite but with Betts and Duckett the running game looks decent. Minny was stout versus the run last year on the road it was the passing game that killed them. Now that Brunell has more weapons with Lloyd and Randle-El aboard. What people seem to forget is that the Skins offense started slow after adjusting to Brunell being the QB then struggled alot in the 2nd Half of the year cause they had NO WR's outside of Santana Moss. Patten went down and they had ZIP( it was Taylor Jacobs and McCants if I recall)! Now teams CAN'T focus solely on Moss and if they do Lloyd , Cooley and Randle-El can make plays. Wash improved greatly IMO from last season in minor areas.

Under 36 -101 Wash/Min(1unit)

Number somewhat on the low side but really can see this at 17-10 or 20-13. Dont really expect Wash to top 21 pts after the sluggish start in the preseason. However with the likelyhood of alot of pass attempts here due to lackluster running games the CLOCK might be running slowly. This scariest final is 23 -14 , 20-17 or 24 -14 game... but hoping Wash offense starts slow again and Minnys defense has vastily improved n the road.


Over 42 -101 SD & OAk (5units) & Over 41.5 -104 (2units more)

Basically the SD defense is built on or better at stopping the run but w/o Foley that might even take a step back. That leaves Mr.Monday Nite Randy Moss to make some plays in the passing game on an average secondary. I like how Brooks progressed as the preseason went on and dont sleep on WR's like Alvis Whitted and Ronald Curry or forget Jerry Porter is still there(dont buy Randy's moaning....Whitted had 14 receptions in 1 game last year). The key for Oakland is the play of the OL. SD can get to the QB and the OAK OL has been so-so in the preseason. What I like is the fact last year this game was in the 50's both meetings(but fell below) and now we get low 40's! Seabass has looked solid in the preseason and hopefully he gets off to a quick start. After tonite Lamont Jordan should be more then an afterthought.

Oakland +3.5 -115 bought the half NOW--(2units)

While SD has owned them I dont see how one can overlook the loss of Brees who did alot in those SD wins. I'll take Shell and Randy Moss getting points at home on MNF! Real simplistic approach as there isnt much of a valid arguement for Oakland other new start , new regime and talent on the roster....

Basic Rankings for NFL( 1, 2 ,3, 5,7 , 10 Unit increments)


TEASER-
Over 32 Oakland , Under 46 Washington and Skins +6 (3units)

Good Luck

Saturday Thoughts

All I know is the last few days have been disappointing to many inconsistent sessions and poor choices.

MLB-

Rangers -109 (3units)

Looks like Travis Hafner will not play . Really Cliff Lee is a guy who goes out and gives you 6 innings and either allows 3 or 4 runs. Volquez is an unknown and I really am not sure what he will give you. With that said Lee has dropped 3 straight starts and 8 of 10. The Rangers also hit .300 at Home vs LHP and in Lee's 2 prior starts there he hasnt shown much. The big thing here was Clevelands inability to get outs from the pen on the road this year. The pen has greatly improved of late but much of there play was at home. Can they now lower that 5.80 Road era? Tribe play better in day games and Rangers at nite , plus Tribe really hasnt played well against Texas past few meetings. So after taking game 1 I look for Texas to tie up the series.

Under 10.5 -111 White Sox and Royals (2units)

Buerhle has struggled the past 2 months but has been decent past few outings. The road has been a huge concern for him in 2006 but he has 4 quality starts against KC including 2 at KAuffman. Just 6 earned runs in 24 innings this year. KC tends to struggle against LHP . Perez has pitched vs Chi twice and although the frist lasted just 4 inning it was to stretch out his arm.(11 INN 8 H 6 R)

Over 9 -101 LAA & Det(5units) & First 5 Inn +102 Over 5 (2units)

Basically the 2 youngsters IMO are tired. Saunders has complained about shoulder fatigue and really has been ineffective past few outings. Now he faces a Tiger team that generally hits LHP well and we could see a repeat of his last performance. Verlander also has struggled in teh second half as DET has looked to get him xtra rest whenever it could. LAA hit him enough in teh 1st outing in May to lead me to belive they should do so again. LAA is 5-1 Over after getting shutout. Lean heavily towards DET here.

Under 9 -112 Oakland & Balt -112 (5units)

The O's are the walking wounded with Mora , Hernandez , Patterson , Gibbons and Mora all possible sitting this one out. Chavez is questionable for Oak. Marvin Hudson tends to be an Under Ump and Oakland is 20-12 UNDER when opposing a LHP! Haren rebounded from his poor start in Tor with a strong 12 K effort in Texas. AT home Hren has seen 8 of 11 unders and 7 of in day starts. Haren has a 2.77ERA in both day and home starts.

Phillies Game 1 -125 (5units)

Yesterdays writeup

Have more MLB and NCAAF......

FRIDAY Thoughts

Well short on time as the Cubbies start at 2:20 but Thursday was fairly solid especially in baseball!

Day Baseball

Under 4.5 -114 (3units) First 5 Innings

Staying away from these disastrous pens!

Real simple: Lowry pitching extremely well in August (his career best month) and has been fairly consistent on the road despite a 4.50 era. Cubbies do struggle to put up runs against L:H's despite solid stats in that department. A career 2nd Half stud!

Hill also throwing extremely well 7 earned runs in 28 AUG innings not includinmg Coors. Coors is like pitching on Mars I hardly ever use those stats in my capping. SF really poor against LHP. Durham is there big bat and he left thegame with a back strain yesterday. I bet he is only playing cause of the importance of the game so there key hitter looks less then 100%. Bonds is resting as well. Really after that its about Hillenbrand and Alou and Shea hasnt hit all that well since the trade but improving of late.

Like the Cubbies here but will pass!

It seems lately that I cant get the dam ntotals right! Basically had teh Cubs game pegged thinking Cubbies and Under 8 but went First 5 Under cause of 2 horrid pens! It seems that the unders I loselatelt are all pen related and I play a first 5 and I lose but it goes under!!

NL
Phillies -135 (5units) & -1.5 Runs +144 (2units)

This is all about Jon Leiber and fading Villareal and the 5 innings or 75 pitches he wil throw tonite. ATLs pen has been shaky recently and that is certainly a plus for me when I see a converted reliever starting. Then we have Leiber who's home splits look like hsit till you dig a little deeper. In 11 games athome he has been solid 8 times but the other 3 starts were BEATINGS that skewed his nunbers. In the good 8 he went 60 inn , 57 H , 24 runs (23er) , 7bb 36K and 6 Hrs. The bad 3 were 13 innings , 29 H , 22r (21 er) , 2bb 10 K and 7 Hr!! Last month he pitched well backing a recent trend for him . In AUG he allowed 10 earned(14 runs) in 36 2/3 innings. The past few SEP he is 9=1 with a 2.43 ERA in 12 starts and to day folks is SEPT , 1st!!

Villareal was real sharp his 1st two spot starts but unimpressive last time out vs Wash lasting but 3 innings. Again ATL's pen is shaky right now and Leiber has held the Jones boyz to 17 for 78 lifetime with 4hr and 11 Rbi plus a nice 2bb to 17 K ratio!

Think 10.5 is alot of runs here especially with this awful weather but will stay away.

Houston +112 (3units)

Could it be the winners of 6 staright are flying under the radar and a home doggie?? It appears that way to me. Glavine returns and appears to be okay after the blood clot scare but has had 16 days inbewteen starts. Glavine has struggled as a MET on the road and even in 2nd H of the season (except last yr). With Houston picking up momentum and winning 6 straight 4-1 against LHP and 19-11 against LHP this season.NY is also playing well and 20-15 vs LHP.

Wandy is almost as big a question mark as Glavine here. Wandy sort of has Jon Leiber disease. A few bad outings really wrecking his home numbers. With Wandy its only 2 awful starts skewing his numbers and I think getting skipped might have lit a fire inhim. I say that cause he was sharp in an relief appearance on 8/29. Take out Wandy's 2 horrific outings and he is 56 2/3 Inn , 57 H 25runs(23er) with 21 bb and 32 K's .

Also think 9.5 runs is high here but nothing on the under yet!!

Under 9.5 +105 NY and Hou(unit)

Brewers -139 (5units)

This is rematch from last week when MILW was swept in FLA and Capuano lost 4-3 to Sanchez. Capuano has been terrific athome this season going 10-2. Whats more impressive is his 11 quality starts in twelve. His 2 worst outinsg were vs Pitt 5 Inn 11h 6 r 2BB 4 K and early on when he went 6 1/3 INN 3 H 4runs (3er) with4 BB and 7 K. Yes that how good he is at home that 4 runs in 6++ innings is his second worst home start. Nine of the past 11 jome games have dropped UNDER the number .

Sanchez has been solid as anyone could hope for. With just 2 bad starts which both happened on the road nad during teh day...at nite he numbers have been damn solid! Now factor in Cabrera should be less then 100% and FLA is 15-20 vs LHP. Despite MILW lack of offense they were on teh road and FLA streak came at home. Looking at how to play the UNDER thinking the First 5 Innings (again).

Under 8.5 -101 MILW (3units) & Under 4.5 First 5 INN -109 (unit)

Pirates +1.5 -105 (2units) & Pitt +222(unit)

Cards continue to struggle against LHP and Duke did 1 hit them recently. FActor in Carpenter only 9-4 athome despite his solid pitching. reason being lack of run support. After dropping 3 staright starts the Cards have rebounded to win his last three. Factor in those 6 starts he faced Cubs 3 x , Cincy 2 x and Milw talk about slumping bats!!! Shot in the dark sort of but has merit. Shocking again thinking UNDER or First 5 Innings Under.

Under 4 -108 First 5 Inn(1unit) STL

Dodgers -155 (3units)

Jennings doesnt have much luck pitching in LAD and Colorado has just slumped miserably on the road. LA is team of streaks and now that they are winning again time to ride the wave I believe. In 7 games at LA the Rockies have ot topped more then 3 runs in any of them and managed 13 in 7 games! Rockies 5-18 away since the break....

Not suprising again think UNDER or First 5 Inn

Under 8 -112 LAD (3units)

AL

Blue Jays -125(3units)

Two slumping squads square off agian. Boston needed Alex Rios to boych a fly ball outinto a HRto actually win a game. Now they face the struggling Ted Lilly who has done extremely well as a visitor in Fenway. He has won his 3 last starts there and has 5 solid straight outings there. Over all 10 runs in 32 1/3 innings there but he hasnt been good at all recently. I am overlooking his recent starts and weighing his past history more. Especially since Boston struggles vs LHP and again has a depleted lineup.

Yankees -169 (3units)

No bullshit here its the Carlos Silva ROAD fade. He is 3-7(4-8) away with an 8.49ERA! minnys bats have quieted down and any time I can fade a DOME team in bad weather I will do so. The Minny bats have been silient of late and they need Johan to bail them out at home vs KC. Giambi probablhy wont play and Rivera might not be available....those are our 2 biggest negatives. Hopefully the 7 LH bats do enough damage to keep us from having to need someone close this out. Twins jsut 3-13 last 16 in NY and have lost 27 of 36 against NY.

Devil Rays +102 (2units)

SHields has held his own and lost 2-0 recently at Seattle. Meche has tsruggled past 6 weeks outside of teh Boston start and dropped career starts @ TB. DRays are 34 -31 at home and M's well below 500 away and 5-17 last 22 away. Thought Under as well but passed.

Really want to play DET( and suprise th eunder 9) but after that NY series I have lost alot of respect for how good that lineup really isnt.

Under 10 -110 KC and Chicago Wsox (2units)

Seemed abit odd this total saw some under movement so I checked it out. Hernandez is the giant killer cashing in 3 of hios past 4 styarts al as +200 or better dogs. he pitched well in all those games and generally he and Conteras as 1 of 2 things good or awful. Here is hoping for good.

CFB-

Fresno State -12 -110 (3units)

A new QB for the Bulldogs but I think Nevada is Jekyl and Hyde when talking about home and away. Nevada really doesnt travel well and will have to play at one of the toughest venues in CFB on openingnite against ateam seeking revenge. Huge defensive difference here. How many times do you see Fresno as less then 2 TDs home favs? Remeber they were about 16 pt favs @ Nevada last year.

NFL

Bengals -3-110 (5units)

With Palmer playing they just have a superior QB edge IMO. Colts never look to win in thepreseason under Dungy IMO.

Jets -5 -110 (3units)

Philly appears to be resting everyone! Al l starters plus Stallworth and Feeley dont appear set to play. Its abattle for the #3 spots on the depth chart in Philly and a chance for Ramsey to erase all doubts. The 31 total says alot about this game

Be back in abit to finalize some stuff. GOOD LUCK

What a disappointing finish to my WED nite. After several poor decisions and being on the wrong side of several meltdowns on Tuesday the ship was righted early on WED. Problem is I then had only a few minutes to look atthe nite card and paid dearly for it. Tonite the Texas pen broke down and Chi won but not by 2 runs. Then the kicker is a 4-2 game in the bottom of the 8th I have to watch LAD conect for 3 solo Hrs to ruin by under 8.5! Shit happens but the truth is hard work cannot be overlooked. I need more hours in the damn day! Had to run out before the braves game and i was loving that Under just as I am looking at it a flood of OVER money comes in and I pass. I look back and see the line settled down in the minutes afterwards . What can you do! Thats why I can have my posts up that early in baseball I need to see any funny money moves.

Day Card-

Yankees -139 (5units)
Over 9 -102 NYY& DET -102 (unit) now +110 (1 more unit)

This is much more riskier then it appears. Randy Johnson has been consistently inconsistent this season for whatever reasons..lack of velocity , poor mechanics , flat slider you name it! We have 2 SP on different ends of the spectrum regarding second half pitching and the months of AUG and SEPT. For as good as Bonderman is for some reason he falls apart come AUG 1st till the end of the season. The kid is 4-13 in 22 career AUG starts with a 5.68 ERA , 1.61 WHIP and .298 BAA!! This yr he is 0-1 in 5 starts the Tigers are 2-3 in those games but its usually his worst ERA month. Last yr 1-4 6.75 era , 2004 again 1-4 except only 4.31 era , 2003 was 2-4 6.68 ERA. Basically I have DET at 6-15 with a no decision I cant acoount for in 22 career AUG starts with no sign of improvement really. For whatever reason he also falters in day starts this season going 1-4 in 8 starts witha 4.94 era , 1.31 WHIP , .266 BAA compared to 3.14 , 1.10 ,.227 at nite. The wrench in this arguement is his 3.14 road era and 1.10 whip , 7-2 record! One thing for sure is he should face alot of LHB maybe seven tmrw and thats trouble for him: 276 LH and .218 RH. Also note that I mentioned in my WED thread DET just not playing all that good in the 2nd Half 24-21(10-11 away). They should have lost both ends yesterady but Torre is a baffoon.

Now Randy is no prize in day starts either....5-4 10 starts witha 5.40 Era. The real problem is I believe he has 5 day starts at home that he is 1-4 in meaning 5-0 away. How bout 24 innings ( never more then 6) and 21 earned runs , 29 runs!!! That does mean though on the road he has 37 innings and 16 earned. So hopefully nothing to that trend just victim of circumstance. Randy was 11-2 at home last year and only 6-6 so far this yr. A s mentioned his day splits not so good but his WHIP(1.23) and BAA (.225) tell a different story IMO. Really DET 's lineup hasnt faced randy much and hasnt had much success either against him.

Looking at the SP names you think 9.5 runs and immediately under pops into your head. Well DET is 29-12 UND against LHP despite a 30-14 SU record vs them. DET is 26-22 in day games but NYY is 29-18(thinmk 30-18 now).

Twins -1 Run -264 (5units)
Over 8 +101 (2units) now +115

Hate these damn RL's just to lower VIG! This is about Minny having there ace on the hill and needing a win to avoid the sweep. That ACE- Johan Santana has led Minny to wins in 9 consecutive starts and is 14-0 @ home this yr. Only 3 were by 1 run in that 9 gm stretch and they were all road stops and of the 14 wins at home only 3 by 1 run.

Santana is 41-9 post Break in his career and 20-4 in AUG witha 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He hasnt been so good vs KC this yr but all 3 starts were at Kauffman. One unnerving factor is Minnys sudden slump against LHP dropping 5 of 6. This year KC has NOT won 3 straight at anytime on the road but has won 2 straight on 7 occassions now. In 5 of the 6 they proceed to lose by 2+ runs(obvioulsy they are 0-6 with consecutive road wins). They are 19-42 L 61 @ MINNY. Minny is 31-5 and 35-7 when laying at least -200 at home. Twinkies have won 14 of past 18 day starts and Santana is 8-0 on Thursday this year. He is 25-2 when laying -200 or more and 24-2 @ Home vs losing teams. Now Miny isnt a great day team at 19-18 but KC only 9-31. Twinkies now 25 up against LHP after 1-5 stretch fare better then KC who is 10-29 against LHP.

A huge game for Minny and they clearly have the edge in the pen. WOuld probably play the OVER @ 8 runs if we get there. Partially because KC's pen is so-so and has a 5 inning SP on the hill but also KC is 23-14 OV against LHP and 25-14 OV in the day.

Under 6 Runs +100(now -111) First 5 Innings TB and Chi WSox (2 units)

Javy Vaquez is pitching much better in AUG allowing jsut 12 runs in 31 innings. He also is 3-1 witha 3.12 ERA in day starts. So while TB has picked up the slack on offense recently they still arent scoring all that mcuh away with there depleted , new look lineup. Hammel has been decent inthe 2 starts after his debut and was okay on the weekend. Baldelii and Thome appear OUT as well.

AL @ Nite

Under 5 +101 Toronto First 5 Innings(2units) & Und 9.5 -110 (unit) & Boston +117 +1.5 RL (unit)

A play based on the fact the Boston will face ROY with a depleted lineup. He should keep them in check and I think Tavarez for 3 innings and then tehe rest of the pen could do a good job here. It;s still Fenway and remember Toronto got swept @ CLE and is poor on the real stuff!

Orioles +120 (2units)

Basically we have Adam Eaton struggling past 2 starts after being effective. This could be some sort of dead arm period for him since his season started late. Last 2 starts only 8 innings nad 8 runs allowe dbut 21 baserunners! Theflip side would be Cabrera who has been decent against Tex in the past. Cabrera is unscore dupon in his prior 2 starts spanning 15 innings (10 hits and 5 BB to 17K's) . Patterson a nd Hernandez appear OUT.

NL @ Nite

Rockies -112(7units)

Think you have to ride the slumping Rockies here. Oliver Perez seemed to be slightily improved in hsi 2006 NYM debut but control still an issue. This guy was 0-5 (team 0-7) with a9.51 Road era this yr. Both teams are solid vs LHP with NY being 21-14 (24-9-1 OVER though) and Col going 13-10 (13-10 UND). Francis is 6-4(team 8-4) witha 3.32 ERA at Coors. Wasnt a week or so ago when Francis was a small fav in Shea against Dave Williams. Now you get him at home for that price.

Rockies hit .301 against Lefties at home compared to .254 for the NYM away. NY has done a great job of pouncing on the COL SP 1st 2 games but that should be much tougher tonite.

Under 9 -102 Stl and Fla (2units) & Under 5 -105 First 5 Innings(3units)
Marlins +112 (2units) (might go +1.5 -180 instead)

D-Train has been better away this year and receives little run support on the road. Thats how you twirl a 3.33 ERA and go 4-6 (team 4-10) (10-4 UNDER though). Luckily he faces a STL team struggling against LH see how Dave Williams , Scott Olsen and Richie Hill fared past week vs them(forget Les Walrond !). All season StL is 19-30 vs LHP witha .269 BA and 4.4 runs per. Now Suppan has been solid at the NEW BUSCH going 8-5 with a 3.04 ERA!

Under 8.5 -102 Milw and Houston (2units)

Struggling lineups and Fiedler appears to be getting a nite off. Home plate UMP has been a huge UNDER UMP in a few appearances this season. Davis is inconsistent on the road and especially at Houston alternating good & bad...thankfully its time for his good start at Houston(j/k). Brewers 15 runs last 6 games(10 last 5 ).


National +125 (2units) & -1.5 +220 (unit)

Astacio has been solid at home 3.47 ERA / 1.10 WHIP (4-2)and WASH above 500 against LHP. Wolf has managed to win his 1st 6 starts without pitching well( avg run support is 10 runs!!). This is the rematch of last week slugfest that Wolf held on for a 12-10 win. Wolf has been a 5 inning pitcher since returning from the DL as well. Think with price and Nats avoiding the sweep ( after a Robinson tongue lashing last nite) we have nice value. Myers and Hamels clearly much better SP were only about 20$ or so more while Astacio is probably on common ground withARmas and Ortiz when starting at home. Meeting in Philly was -165 as well....

Note fairly ODD IMO that the Under 10 has -128 vig since this was a 12-10 game last week.




CFB :(Thursday)
Central Michigan +12 -110(3units)
Under 42 -105 (unit)

BC graduated some key players and also has 5 quality players listed as questionable who probably wont play. CMU has a young QB but a solid defense which makes me think they will not allow him to do much and try and force a BC mistake or two. The Eagles didnt exactly score much on the road in 2005 and I expecting 20-24 here.

Jim Ramella
DE
Out Indefinitely (shoulder)
Andre Callender
RB
Questionable Week 1 (shoulder)
Tony Gonzalez
WR
Questionable Week 1 (hamstring)
Ty Hall
OG
Questionable Week 1 (neck)
Tyronne Pruitt
LB
Questionable Week 1 (hamstring)
B.J. Raji
DT
Questionable Week 1 (leg)



Miss St + 7 -110 (3units)
Under 40.5 -105 (2units)

South Carolina another team who struggled to put points up in 2005 on the road facing a solid defense. Muchlike CMU you wonder where the point swill come from Miss St. Thinking worst case this is 17-10

Nwestern ML -200 (2units)
Under 55 -102 (unit)

Miami Ohio is just flat rebuilding IMO( and everyone elses). The lost there QB , 3 OL starters and 5 of 6 linebackers from last year and now Murphy (RB) is probably out. Hopefully the Wildcats play an emotionally charged game for the late Randy Walker as well.

SD ST ML -135 (3units)

UTEP IMO just got more credit then they deserved last year and really played asoft schedule. Chuck Long takes over in SD and this is a mission statement type game.

I wish that we were full strength going into this game, but we`re not,” Price told the El Paso Times. “We`re leaving a couple of real good players at home.”

Over Iowa St and Toledo 55 -108(3units)

Iowa State is going to be remembered as a solid defense but they return very little from that group. Even with Toledo losing Gradowski they should still score some points here. Iowa St returns alot on offense and in the home opener against a MAC defense should put up 35+.

Kent St +14.5 -105 (2units)

After yrs of being spoiled by great RB's gone now are Barber and Malroney. They have lost 3 starting OL and while Cupito and his WR core return the Golden Flash have a decent secondary. Factor in the chances the running game is missing and the OL is trying to mesh on the road and wecould have a flat offense tonite from Minnymaking a 2 TD spread even bigger then it suggests). Kent St was awful last yr but thanks to all those injuries the youngsters developed experience. Dont understimate Minny recent success early on in past seasons inflating this number. As I said we are accustomed to watching Miny pound out of conference foes in past years but maybe Mason has a soft spot for his former employer.

Middle Tenn State -9 -107 (unit)

Really think that while Mid Tenn state lostto FIU last year we have to remember they lost a close game and were favored by -4.5 pts. That certainly translates into a Double Digit spread when playing at home. Mid Tenn returns 8 starters on offense but there defense took a hit with only 4 returnees. New coach should be huge motivation here and I think a little much is being made of FIU late 3 game run. They were only 1-5 away last yr and while they dont need to win I think its foolish to think they have a legit chance. Look at Mid Tenny schedule can they afford not to win thsi game>>

NFL PreSeason

NY Giants -3 -113(3units)

New York's starters will go 10 to 12 plays, coach Tom Coughlin said. New England's Bill Belichick hasn't said how much his group will play. He played only one starter in last year's preseason finale between the clubs. Real simple approach I see Coach Belichick just resting his gusy and waiting for week 1 and keeping the playbook s vanilla as possible.

Panthers -3 -108(3units)

Looks like Pitt could be 0-4. We should see alot of Shane Boyd and Charlie Batch tonite coupled with RB's Staley and Haynes who havent done much in the preseason. Panthers depth and especially at RB.

Phins (2units) CANCEL

Over 35 -102 Bills -Lions (3units)

Both teams deep at QB but not on defense.

Falcons -4.5 -108(3units)

Schaub , Shockley and Norwood are the keys. garrard didnt look good 2 weeks ago and 2 pass attempts wont change much after last week. Jones and TAylor arent playing leaving Pearman , Toefield and Drew. Jags first team offense didnt look good last week and generally I just dont expect much from Jax especially after suffering a few injuries recently they might really scale back.

Ravens -3+115(3units)

The Skins have looked awful! Plain and simple. Does Campbell and Collins do anything to inspire you? The Skins have had ZERO SUCCESS running the ball and now get that Ravens defense even if its the second team defense. Just dont see WAS scoring much and Baltimore has a former starting QB to take alot of snaps in Boller.

Saints -3 +100(3units)

The Saints have Jaime Martin and Todd Bouman batting for the backup QB job while KC has Casey Printers of CFL fame and Brodie Croyle just 1 of 9 last week!! KC also thin at RB and WR spots.

Cardinals -3.5 -103 (2units)

Matt Leinart...


Leans : Texans and Under , Browns and Under.

Early returns were solid....only that stupid play on the Minny Over 8. Didnt I just say Minny has struggled vs LHP and you knew KC wouldnt score more then twice!

Yanks -139 (5units) Win 6-4 (win) +5.00
Over 9 -102 (unit) & Over 9 +110 (win) +2.10
Twinkies -1 -264 (5units) Won 3-1 (win) +5.00
Over 8 +102 Minny (2units) Lost -2.00
Under 6 even WSox First 5 Inn (2units) Win 1-1 after 5 Inn (win) +2.00
4-1 +12.10 early

WED Thoughts

Last nite was one fuck job after another. First I cant even explain how many leans that I passed on that won....Phillies , Braves , over Braves , over Cubbies , Mets , Over WSox , Under A's and the beat goes on. Then how bout the MILW pen allwoing a 7 spot in the bottom ofthe 8th inning whne I have the under...it was 1-0 after5 innings. Same carp in Texas O's pen allows a 5 spot in a 4-3 game in the bottom of the 7 th. Red Sux lose 2-1 and I was dead wrong about those totals being to high in Wash and LAD. First real losing day...

Early:
Yankees -173(2units)
Under 9.5 +100 NYY and DET(3units)

First with NY we have Wang on the hill. The kid has been consistent , after a rough outing at home vs LAA he bounced back with solid efforts and wins. he is 6-1 since the break (NY is 6-2 when he starts). NY has won seven of his 9 day starts even though his ERA is higher at 4.48. He has gone UNDER 10 of past 12 at home as well. Yanks should benefit from 2 days off after west coast trip.

Det has Robertson on the hill who is 3-4 during teh day this yr and improvement to prior seasons(just 1-7 lastyr). Career his numbers are 8-18 6.13 ERA inthe day and 4.04 ERA At nite. Thats why I dropped the size on the total. The key I think is Robertson has been very effective on LHB .176 BAA and 0.70 WHIP.

Tigers started AUG 6-1 buthave tailed off and dropped 13 of 19 , 7 of 10 and are only 23-20 since the break. Wang had won 8 straight starts at home before the LAA start. I think the fact that the STADIUM will be empty today with the early start and bad weather helps keep the game atmosphere flat.

Pirates -124 (2units)

Probably looks weird to see Victor Santos as a favorite but he actually was favored a few times vs CHI in 2005. Truth is CHI is reeling at the moment. Just when it cant get any worse it does. They couldnt hit in StL losing 2-0 and 2-1 which the pen blew. When they finally did on Sunday thetre pen blew it late again witha walkoff GRAND SLAM. On Monday there SP gets rocked again and yesterday with xtra innings they again had to call on the pen which blew it again.

Cubs have dropped 9 of 10 and start a guy who is basically only giving them 5 innings a start maybe 6...enter tired pen. Santos has had success vs CHI in his career. Since 2004 when he was a Brewer he has made 9 starts vs them. In those starts he has one poor outing to speak off. His 1st start 0f 2006 against them. Now his day numbers stink but we are overlooking that. In 9 starts vs them he has on seven occassion gone at least 6 innings and allowed no more then 3 runs...one other start was 5 inn and 2 runs. Based on his recent starts and career record I am comfortable expecting a 6 inning 3 run stint from him and hoping the pen can hold on for a 5-4 type win.

Red Sux +132 (2units)

Zito was filthy last time out and how could I fade him? Zito is pitching much better away then at home this year....4-6 4.57 ERA @ Home and 10-2 2.87 Away. He also owns a 5 career ERA against Boston and yes this is Boston-lite but it still says Red Sox across there uniforms. Zito has allowed 21 runs in 21 2/3 innings in his past 4 home starts( three of which he lasted only 5 innings)

The key is Curt Schilling always put forward a top notch effort when his team needs it and they clearly need it here . Boston hasnt scored much pat 5 games think just 7 times!! Schilling not a ssharp on the road as a t Fenway still managed to go 7-0 in 9 starts in 2004 (2.71 ERA & 0.86 WHIP) and is 3-2 witha 3.72 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season. Sox won 16 of Schill's past 20 day starts.

Three key batters in the Sox lineup wil be Cora as hitting 414 against LHP this yr , Kapler 7 /25 lifetime against Zito , Pedroia for all his 3 -25 he is 2-5 against LHP , Pena whoi s 5/16 off Zito with 2 Hrs and has 8 career Hr's vs OAK his former organization. I say this because they have success in today 's situation whether it be vs Oak , vs a LHP , or against Zito. These replacements have been the down fall of Boston as they have provided ZIP! in Manny and Ortiz's absence! Really want to play this heavier but I need to be cautious here!

DBacks -131 (2units)

Never a big fan of backing rematch SP's. This means that on 8/18 this guys squared off and Vargas won...I feel its tough to beat the same SP let alone the same team in a short period of time.

Basically a SD fade here. Thompson hasnt pitched well on the road with a 7.50 ERA in 6 starts and allowed 47 hits in 30 innings. SD hasnt played well in ZONA losing 47 of 65 there. Vargas isnt anything special but has authored two great games against SD this season @ Petco...7 shutout innings and 7 innings allowing 1 run. Last yr he was decent in two starts going 6 allowing 3 runs both times. Think if we see a 9.5 total down from 10 runs the over might be the play as well even with Iassagona behind the dish.

NL leans I am looking at SFG +130 , Cincy +116 and Fla +119. AL thinking Texas -144 & Cle -163

Night:

Indians -171 (2units)

Fading Toronto on grass , with Marcum pitching and because Sowers hs been so solid at home.

Under 10.5 -108 NYY and Det(unit)

Both pens got rest in Game 1 and basically all this is a continuation of my thoughts yesterday and today except the SP isnt as strong but we get 10.5 instead of 9.5.

White Sox -1.5RL-116 (2units)

Think TB has now lost 19 of 20 since the Break on the road and all but 3 hae been by 2++ runs. Garland has been fantastic past few starts and facing a depeleted TB lineup it should continue.

Rangers -147 ( 2units)

Marlins +123 (unit)

along for the ride.

Giants +130 (2units)

Was all set to play the under til some huge money came in on the over which moved the total from Under -119 to Over -121 in about 3 minutes....

Well looks like I blew my nice start.......Had a few minutes to cap the games that started at 7 or 8 and seems I rushed a bit!

Reds +121 (3units)

Under 4.5 First 5 INN -108 (3units)

Under 8.5 -102 game (2units)

Tuesday Thoughts

Let's get right to work after a solid Monday nite.

Under 9.5 -102 NYY and DET(5units)

We have two solid and fairly consistent SP's squaring off tonite at the Stadium. Which BTW should be cool and possibly damp. Wang loves the Stadium going 9-2(11-3 when he starts) with a 2.97 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Ten of his fourteen home games have dropped under the total. He was shaky in his lone outing vs DET this year but I believe the situation aided that. NY was trying to complete a 4 game sweep in DET and lets say that I believe the cards were stacked against Wang even before he stepped on the mound. Wang and Robertson both have better NITE splits this year as well. Robertson has performed better on the road posting a 3.79 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Outside of 1 rough outing @ NY a few years back Robertson always seems to pitch well against us and Wang was tough on DET in bothg '05 starts. Both teams can call upon strong bullpens as well.

The Yankees havent hit LHP all that well IMO since the break. Giambi 's numbers are down vs LH this year and we added Abreu to the mix. Bernie busted out the other nite butI take that with a grain of salt as Saunders has been complaining of a tired arm lately and we couldnt hit him earlier at the Stadium...see those freaky things happen in 'sweep' situations. Recently I have watched Loewen (twice) , Bedard , Wells , Washburn , even Chen pitch solid games.

For trends the Tigers are 47-2 UND @ nite , 72-43 UND on grass , 16-9UND in AUG . They have scored 5 runs or less in 10 of 13 and allowed 4 runs or less in 8 of 13. NYY is 23-16 UND against LHP , 36-25 UND at home , 20-3 UND when favored bewteen 150 and 2000 @ home . Hopefully RAIN doesnt interfere with the game.


White Sox -209 (2units) & -1.5 RL -102 (unit)

Usually I dont bother with high chalk games unles I take the dog. However I just cant seem to figure out what TB is doing right now. There battling injuries and working in more new young players. They have dropped 18 of 19 on the road since the break and despite consecutive 1 run losses they still managed just three 1 run losses in this span.

The White Sox for some reason have trouble with LHP(Dye ,Crede and Konerko..what's the problem??) but Fossum has trouble on the road. This year he sports a 7.11 road ERA and last year he was 2-7 away. In 50 2/3 Inning awayhe has allowed 43 runs in 10 starts,so expect the recently improved(hopefully overworked) pen to get alot of work. Garcia is 6-3 with a 4.28 ERA at home but has had some recent difficulties with TB. This TB lineup is abunch of new faces with limited abs against Freddy. The key out is Carl Crawford first for his hitting ability second for his SB threat(Garcia can be run on think 32 of 33 successful SB attempts). rFeddy's last 3 at home vs NY , Tex and Det span 21 innings 18 hits 7earned (8runs) 5BB 17K 2Hrs. Taking the team fighting for there life.

Under 10 +106 Texas and Baltimore(3units)

Now this is something that I sort of uncovered and wasnt looking for. Both teams are struggling offensively at the moment ...Rangers 3 runs (exactly ) in 6 of the past 7 games(the other was 4 runs). Past 11 games they have scored bewteen 2 and 4 runs on 9 occassions. Baltimore since its 15-0 win last week has scored 23 runs in 7 games. Now both SP don't exactly pitch well in these situations (Lopez away and Millwood at Arlington) BUT they have solid track records vs the opponent.

Lopez in 2 home starts and one road start(2004 -2006) has gone 18 innings and allowed 6 runs in three low scoring matchups. Millwood has allowed 6 runs in 21 innings the past 2 seasons including 3 runs in 15 inn this yr. He also spun a CG at Arlington versuis BALT in May.

Mariners +122 (2units)

Sometimes you have to think like a day trader and just ride the momentum wheter it's positive or negative! Seattle is just flat out HOT after being ICE COLD. Washburn is facing his former team for the 5th time in 2006. He has led the M's to wins in three of them but lost @ LA last week while Jered Weaver has been filthy twice against SEA shutting them down(once was last week). Hopefully seeing Weaver twice in a week will be somewhat helpful and Washburn can make the proper adjustments. Washburn has pitched extremely well recently at Safeco.



Really leaned heaviest to Minnesota before passing. Just hate that chalk with a youngster versus a guy who was an ALL Star a month ago. Garza is legit though and should keep this team in check. There in no reason to attempt to make sense of Boston and Oakland . The other Game Tor and Cle was interesting. You dont know how healthy Chacin is and you have a Tribe team who is just as bad against LHP as Tor is on grass!! Thought over but hoped for 9 runs.

working on the rest....pouring down the Jersey Shore now

Under 9.5 -127 Wash and Philly (3units)

Throwing all the stats and trends out the window. Basing this one one angle. I think this number is set to high for a game in Washington. Myer and Armas dueled last weel and the number was 10 and that was in Philly and they battled in Wash earlier in the season and that game it opened 8.5 went down to 8. Now we get a full run more!

Nothing on the Pirate total as I passed.

Marlins +112 (unit)

Reality is we dont know what is up Mark Mulder. hell he didnt pitch well in rehab so the beating was no suprise in NY. Olsen was slumping for awhile but gets a StL lineup who still isnt hitting very well against LH(unless I count Les Walrond!!). Same deal as Seattle riding the momentum train.

Under 8.5 -123 Houston and Milwaukee (3units)

Basically we have two slumping offense with deplted lineups due to injury. We have Oswalt who has been filthy last few starts at home . Oh and Oswalt before his lackluster April home start vs MILW had 4 starts vs them at home spanning 32 1/3 innings allowing 3 runs....check that Brewer lineup again. Houston with its own offensive woes also doesnt hit Ohka very well for some reason. This yr 1 earned run (3runs) in 12 innings of work.


Change in plans........

Red Sox +115 (2units)

Had to step back and think about this . Boston has Josh Beckett on the hill and is +115 versus Kirk Saarloos!! I know people wil rationalize it with but NO Manny , Ortiz or Pena. Absolutely true otherwise it would be Boston -130 or so. Beckett was -175 at Fenway vs Zito and -110 @ Oakland vs Zito....think about that. The red Sox lineup is thin but its still a very hittable Kirk Saarloos. Dont get fooled into looking at last nite games as some sort of barometer. Loaiza has been filthy for awhile now and is much better then Saarloos.

Beckett's last 3 road starts are very solid 6inning outings allowing 1 ,2 and 3 earned. he has 5 road starts of 7+ innings and 3 runs or less and 4 more starts of 6 innings and 3 runs or less. He has 2 medicore starts of 6+ and 7+ innings where he allowed 5 runs and 3 absolute shellings that skew his numbers. Those 3 outings 9 2/3 innings and 22 earned runs allowed!! Now realize he has allowed51 earned in 82 road innings......so the other 11 outings 72 1/3 INN and 29 earned which drops his ERA into the high 3's.

As I now deeply regret not playing the Pirate Over I also much mention and I could be wrong that I feel the books have dropped the line in the Met/ rockie game to get people thinking and draw some Rockie money IN. It's a conspiracy theory alright but that what I think.

Late Nite:

Diamondbacks +109 (unit)

I guess I dont believe that Chris Young is healthy right now. Also dont see why you would lay chalk with a Padre team that 17-47 last 64 @ ZONA.

Under 9.5 -108 LAD and Cincy (5units)

Now I have had some weird ideas tonite but this as my strongest play seems the weirdest. I just dont get this total @ 9.5. Hendrickson has not received much run support as a Dodger and despite alot of ridicule he really hasnt pitched that badly. Milton has pitched better away since joing Cincy and just dueled Maddux at home but lost 3-0. LAD didnt hit very well off Michalak last nite so why would I expect Milton to get shelled here? The Cincy lineup right now is Griffey , Encarnacion and Phillips

Thats it for now working on the last of the nite games. GL

Past Three days

Since I had some free time I caught up with my past few days to keep my record straight.

YTD UPDATE: Last Tuesday thru TODAY-Monday(++79.27)

(10units) xxx
(7units) 5-0 +35.70
(5units) 6-3-1 +13.85
(3units) 16-9 +18.48
(2units) 11-6 + 9.30
(1unit) 27-27-1 +1.94



Yesterday- (+17.92)
Phillies +136 (3units) Loss
Phillies -1.5 +212 (unit) Loss
Over 5 -108 First 6 Innings NYM and Philly (unit) Win
Indians -108 (3units) Win
Indians -1.5 +187 (unit) Win
Over 9.5 +122 Indians (2units) Win
Over 8 +114 Pitt (5units) Win
Pirates -144 (2units) Win
Brewers +105 (unit) Loss
Under 8.5 Milw & Fla -110(2units) Win
Under 8.5 -103 Arizona & SD (3units) Loss
Under 4.5 +101 First 5 Innings (unit) Loss
Arizona -140(unit) Win
LAD -177 (3units)Win
Mariners -112 (2units) Win
Under 9.5 -116 Oakland and Boston (3units) Win
Under 5 First 5 Inn +106 (unit) Push

(5unit) 1-0 +5.70
(3unit) 3-2 +2.91
(2unit)4-0 +8.44
(1unit)3-3-1 +0.87

Sunday (-2.32)

Marlins -119(2units) Win
Indians -114(2units) Loss
Royals (unit) +161 Loss
Over Cle & Det 9.5 -121(2units) Loss
Over 10 KC and Tor +104 (2units) Win
Phillies +136 (2units) & ARL +208 (unit) RAIN
Pirates +109 (2units)Loss
Over 10 +102 Pitt & Houston (3units) Win
Under 10 +102 Chicago and Minny(2units) Win
White Sox -143 (unit)Win
Under 10.5 +!06 LAA and NYY (3units) Loss-dumb
Giants -137 (2units)Win
Over 9 -123 LAD and Zona (3units) Push
Zona +110(unit) and ARL +200 (unit) Loss
Texans +5.5 even money (2units)Win
Rangers -106 (3units)Win
Cubs +1.5 -125 (2units) & Cubs +172 (unit) Loss-walkoff Grannie
Under 9.5 -110 ChiC& StL (3units) Loss-Dumb

(3unit) 2-2 -0.24
(2unit) 5-4 +0.92
(1unit)1-4 -3.00

Saturday(-4.62)

Braves -219 (2units) Win
Cubs +1.5 runs +107 (unit) Win
Giants -111(3units) Win
Over 8.5 -116 SFG (5units) Loss
Over 5.5 +103 LAA and NYY First 5 Inn(unit) Win
LAA -103 (unit) Win
Over 5 +106 Toronto First 5 Inn (unit) Loss
Under 9 +101 Baltimore and TB(3units) Win
Bills -3-120 (unit) Loss
Chargers -3.5 -104 (unit) Win
Jags -3.5 -106 (3units) Win
Rams +3 -108 (3units)Loss
Rangers -111 (5units)Loss
White Sox+129 (2units) Loss
Under 9 DET & CLE -103( 2units)Loss
Indians even(2units)Win
Under 9.5 Sea & Bos +105(unit) Win

(5unit) 0-2 -11.30
(3unit) 3-1 +5.79
(2unit) 2-2 -0.06
(1unit)5-2 +2.95

Monday Thoughts

Had some problems getting on the site. Therefore this play has already started:

Phillies _136 (3units) & ARL +212 (unit)
Over 5 First 5 Innings -108 (unit)

Basically this was a fw things :

The NYM seem to struggle against LHP recently dropping 7 of the past 9 games against a LH. Moyer has been solid vs the NL in 4 starts this yr 8 runs in 30 innings. The NYM have a slumping a Wright which leaves really LoDuca and reyes as the toughest outs in there lineup against a lefty. Beltran just 263 but 8hr -37 rbi and Delgado 221 with 34 K's in 122 abs.

Just thought Maine was slipping past few starts and wa slucky to get away with a win in his last start. Thid time could be the charm for Philly here and thought this was a high price.

Night Games:

Indians -108 (3units) & -1.5 +187 (unit)

Over 9.5 +122 (2units)

Okay we always hear LOCATION , LOCATION , LOCATION preached in real estate and when starting a business. Tonite we apply that to this matchup. The Tribe have won 8 of the past 9 at home , Byrd has won 9 of his 11 starts at home(or Cleveland has won 9 of 11) , jays are just 2-9 last 11 meetings vs Cleveland. Here is the real kicker though Jays are just 19-30 on grass and Burnett is 0-4 with a6.23 ERA in these situations. He has 5 starts spanning 26 innings allowing 34 hits 22 run (18er) 5BB 22K and 5 HR!!

With those poor numbers is it not safe to assume we could see alot of runs. After all Byrd is 3-6 witha 5.53 ERA at nite (12-6 over record). Also 8-3 over at home. Both teams have tremendous OVER splits with totals of 9 to 9.5( Tor 17-10 over away & Tribe 22-10 over home). Tribe hitting 333 L10 against RHP and .290 at home off RHP!! So waiting to see if this drops to 9 runs and I will play the over then.

Over 9 +114 (holding out for 8.5)Chicago and Pitt (5units)

Pirates -144 (2units)

The way I see it we have up and down Ian Snell on the hill vs Chicago who will have Derrick Lee in the lineup. Snell has been hit hard in both meeting vs Chiacgo this yr. On the flip side we have Angel Guzman pitching @ Pitt and he has been rokced in his 2 away starts. so the question is can the youngster pitch on the road. Not to mention he has lost all 6 of his 2006 starts and seen 5 of the 6 sail over. Basically just fading CHIC away as Snell is 10-4(14-7) 3.90 ERA at nite (1.40 WHIP)..

Brewers +105 (unit) & Under 8 Fla-110 (units)

Late Night

Under 8.5 -103 Arizona & SD (3units)
Under 4.5 +101 First 5 Innings (unit)
Arizona -140(unit)

Playing Arizona based on SD 's record of 17-46 last 63 trips to ARIZONA! Oh and Zona has there ace Brandon Webb on teh hill and even with recent struggles he is 7-1 2.99 at home. he also lost a close friend in that plane crash tragedy yesterday so lets hope that motivates him rather then distracts him.

The under is based on Woody Williams throwing real well recently . Going 3-0 in 21 2/3 INN past 3 starts with a 2.49 ERA. It appears that he always pitches fairly well against Zona and has done so far this year twice 4runs in 14 1/3 inn. Webb as I mentioned has a 2.79 ERA at home and 2.99 in nite starts. Both lineups have there offensive issues lately and tough to get them starightened out here. The one cause for concern is both pens but I am hoping the SP go into the 7th inning at the very minimum.

LAD -177 (3units)

This looks like a crazy price to me and it doesnt stop going higher. This yr LAD has 6 hitters hitting 308++ against LHP and the team is 323 at home vs Lefties. Michalak hasnt started on teh road yet or since 2001 and that has to be cause for concern. The Reds are resting Dunn and have managed 2 runs in the past 3 games. Unfortunately they are 7-2 after being shutout which scares me. Thing is they havent scored at all on the road lately.....16 runs last 7 away games but games with 6 and 7 accounted for nearly all of them. Penny has been extremely tough on Cincy past 2 yrs(2 starts) and is facing a slumping lineup. LAD has an edge in the pen as well here IMO.

LA has faced 6 LH and went 5-1 since the Break, losing only 3-1 to Francis.

LAst 2:

Mariners -112 (2units)

Mariners are streaky this year and going to ride this wave...

Under 9.5 -116 Oakland and Boston (3units)
Under 5 First 5 Inn +106 (unit)

Oakland is 19-11 Under against LH and only has a few guys who hit well againstthem payton , Kielty and Kendall. Boston w/o a few stars starting a real thin lineup against a red hot Loaiza who has pitched nicely against them in his career.

Early starts:

Marlins -119(2units)

Indians -114(2units)

Royals (unit) +161

Over Cle & Det 9.5 -121(2units)

Over 10 KC and Tor +104 (2units)

Phillies +136 (2units) & ARL +208 (unit)

The real stuff is coming up:

1:35 start:

Pirates +109 (2units)
Over 10 +102 Pitt & Houston (3units)

With how Houston has been playing why would you want to lay money with them on the road? Then factor in that they dont have Clemens or Pettitte on the hill. What has Hirsch shown to date to be a road fav? Chacon has at leats been decent in 2 of his 3 starts. The exception was versus Houston but he also turned out to be hurt. Pitt is a 500 team at home and Houston is 28-37 away. Ensberg and Biggio appear to again be out of the lineups. Dont get me wrong Pits 12-33 day record or 4-16 Sunday record is alarming but Houston 6-13 as small road chalk doesnt help either.

2:05 PM

Under 10 +102 Chicago and Minny(2units)
White Sox -143 (unit) avoid the sweep and fade Silva away.

Always like to gamble that an extra inning affair followed by a day game is cause for a flat game. Factor in Mike reilly behind teh dish and his usually wide zone could be very helpful in sppeding up this game. Minny only .255 away aginst LHP.

3;35 PM

Under 10.5 +!06 LAA and NYY (3units)

Right now I think NY has really struggled against LHP. You go back to Washburn and Wells in teh past week looking real sharp against us despite not pitching extremely well beforehand. You go back to the Baltimore series and we struggled mightily at home versus Loewen and Bedard. Karstens to me looked okay in Seattle a bad pitch or two and that was it. His comfortable level should be ten fold here. NYY is 23-15 under against LHP and LAA wasnt exaclty hittingbefore this series believe just 4 of the past 14 games have seen them top 5 runs.

4:05 PM

Giants -137 (2units)

Kyle Lohse has been awesome since the trade BUT lets face it all he is doing is vindicating the people who argue theNL is now the junior league. Still even with his great performances as a RED I still envision him as just a 6 inning guy and that leaves the end of the game wide open IMO. Hey SF isnt exactly shutting the door late but Matt Cain is the story here IMO>. Cain has been extremely IMPRESSIVE in 5 post Btreak starts at home. How bout 35 2/3 innings ( 7,7,7,8 2/3 asnd 6) , 25 hits , 8 runs , 9BB( 4 in the 1st start) 36 Ks and 2 Hrs allowed! Cincy still just 5-15 past 20 day starts.

Over 9 -123 LAD and Zona (3units)
Zona +110(unit) and ARL +200 (unit)

Billingsley has been real solid but the kid has struggled somewhat when he starts in the day ( but only 3 starts). BAsically he is 5 or 6 inning type starter on the road even though he went 7 strong earlier at Zona. The LAD pen has to be thin with the past 2 games. Going on the premise he is not used to day baseball and wont be his sharpest and LA has a thin , overworked oen. You have an UMP that has an over BIAS avg 11 per when he calls a game. Livan is an innings eater but usually even a good day he is allowing 3 runs. because he is a contact pitcher. Wants to throw strikes and challenge hitter s buthas so-so stuff.

Nite cap:

NFL PreSeason

Texans +5.5 even money (2units)

Basic approach here is that after last week's Bronco bloodfest to many people will see this team as being better then it really is. Tenn just isnt anything more then a bottomfeeder right now and your saying well what are the Texans then??. Now Houston is a roster full of talent and possibly now the direction to do something with it. Huge game for Kubiak obviously playing against his former employer and mentor Mike Shanahan.

Denver is always scary with the depth they show at QB and RB but Texans defense is greatily improved and they have already defeated KC and won @ StL....not so shabby IMO!

I'll take a shot with the points thinking Houston wil be crisp here as the players try to impress there new coach by playing hard for HIM in a game with some special meaning for him.

Rangers -106 (3units)

Yes , this has alot to do with the rangers avoiding a sweep. However Padilla has been effective vs oakland this year. until recently he was pitching well at home but two awful starts vs KC and LAA saw his home ERA ballon fron 3.87 to 5.01!! Haren has also been inconsistent when he travels as seen by his 3 extremely ROUGH outings in his last 5 away starts. So his road numbers dant look so good but they are in some manner skewed as well. He has been up and down vs Texas in his career and hasnt seen them since a great April start. Personally I think after being extremely lucky to win his last outing where he was shelled in Toronto the universe will even itself out and Haren will take the LOSS tonite.

Cubs +1.5 +!25 (2units) & Cubs +172 (unit)

Now this is a few angles here. First fading the Cards vs a LHP since they are 3-9 against since teh Break and scored just 29 runs in games started vs LH. Then we have Weaver on teh hill who has led his team to wins in just 3 of 10 home starts and has been terrible in his home parks this year. Chi has been tough all year on STL and even this series. No one knows anything about Walrond tonite but these are teh guys that suprise when they have zero expectations.

Under 9.5 -110 ChiC& StL (3units)

basically as I said StL just not scoring against LHP. Think it was 29 runs in the 12 games started vs LH and that included what they got off the pens. Rich Hill and Dave Williams have kept them in check the past few days. Malholm and Duke shut them down in Pitt. The bats havent donemuch to speak off the past week and less against LH. ChiC in a nice funk as well scoring once in 2 games here. Past 10 games they scored 3runs or less seven times. Rolling the dice again with poor SP!

GL