Just decided that if you like Maryland you should be taking the ML as well . It's grossly INFLATED by several hundred dollars and that tells me to many people think WV can't lose and you know what usually happens with that mentality!! Worth a shot !!
Maryland +17.5 -105 ( 3units) Play the ML +890 (1unit)
West Virginia is certainly a talented team but they are somewhat unproven in my eyes. In White and Slaton they have 2 studs but look at who this duo has faced. They won @ Bowl game vs Georgia but these guys were 7 point dogs and the defense did not impress me. Last meeting Hollenbach was able to make some plays thru the air but his recieving corp was decemitated. Now thsi year they have featured run heavy game plans. right now banking this is to many points to give a decent team who is road tested thanks to the ACC and a rival. Hopefully Maryland can run enough to open the passing game up behind that massive OL and also keep theball out of WV's hands. Last year WV played an up and down Pitt team at home as 15 pt favs and didnt pull away till dominanting the 4th quarter. I' gladly take a 28 -14 WV win but 31 -14 would do just fine as well.
Still thinking about Toledo & Kansas
However I am in the process of finishing up the Sat card
Noon start
Illinois (buy down) -2.5 -120(15 units) hardly ever play 10 units so 15 is special
Leap of faith here. My main reasoning is the Orangeman just dont have much of an offense. This team lost 20-10 @ Wake and Mauck was injured late 3rd quarter of a tied game. Then they get Iowa at home without Drew Tate and go into OT!
At home they ran 82 plays for 280 total yards! Try 44 on the ground for 70 yards and 38 thru the air for 210 and managed a 10-10 tie after regulation! In the opener they ran 49 plays for 141 total yards with 30 runs for 91 yards and 19 pass attempts ( think 6 completions) for 45 Yards!
Syracuse has made strides on defense but this team is 1-10 lyr and 0-2 now so 1-12 under the new head coach which was a home win vs Buffalo! Last year on the road 0-5 and lost by 24 (3x) , 19 and 17. Against solid competition they scored 17 (2x) , 14 ,10 and 7 . However in three games the scored late 4th quarter TD's when the game was well decided and also a defensive TD so of 8 Tds the offense really only earned 4 all season!!
I thought Illinois looked terrible @ Rutgers but the defense IMO looked respectable and I am banking on Pierre Thomas. Illinois started the Zook era in tremendous fashion with a huge come from behind home win vs Rutgers then they trampled SJST and lead @ California to the start of the 4th quarter since then though they seemed to fall apart.
Looking at this closer a Big Ten bottom feeder outweighs a Big East bottomfeeder. Really think the under might a play here as 39 seems high. The Illini win 24-14 IMO.(3 Units)
UAB +17 -110
Troy +17.5 -110
Really with out any Bullshit just think these numbers are to big. Troy looked impressive @ FSU with its JC QB transfer and GTech offensive always seems to underachieve.
The Bulldog offense also has struggled and UAB has played real solid defense and alreday played well @ Oklahoma.
Ohio U +15.5 -110 (5units)
Not overly impressed with the Rutgers offense to this point( Ray Rice has looked good). Ohio U coming off a big upset and I dont see how this qualifies as a letdown spot...still on the road as big dogs. Its homecoming @ RU though and the place should be in a frenzy. Just think Solich's boyz fly under the radar and have enough to compete here. Scarlet Knioghts have been notorious for letting teams hang around and get back in games during the 4th quarter. Ohio U is 2-0 and coming off a SU win as 19 pt dogs @ Northern Illinois who probably has at least as good an offense as RU if not better ( Garrett Wolfe and Phil Horvath). Ohio had 500 yards of offense and after the 1st quarter did a decent job on WOlfe and held NI to 9 points over the final 3 quarters. Though very lucky this team did beat Pitt at home early on last year 16-10.
Northern Illinois -23-106 ( 7 units)
Thanks to a home loss to Ohio U coupled with Buffalo's suprising performance at BG we get a soft line. Buffalo needed OT at home wo win 9-3 vs Temple!! All that last weeks 48 -40 loss @ Bowling Green shows em is how bad they actually are. So 2 weeks and 2 OT's but I cant figure out how you gan less then 300 yards of offense and score 40 points? I know a kick return and nblocked punt were ez 6's but come on 32 pass attmepts and 21 completions for 138 yards!!!!!
BG ran for 356 yards and had about 600 yds of total offense( three 100 yd rushers for BG). Buffalo had only 356 yds of total offense at home to Temple....Not sure what to make of NI's defense but not extremly impressed with the offense. Even if they could muster 21 points I think we could see 45 by the home team. Garrett Wolfe should have a field day! last note BG was -22...NI is clearly better then BG but laying only 1 point more! Bounce back game
Probably unlikely I will write these all up this week....
2 Units
Minnesota -41.5 -101 (2units)
Temple IMO has shown they really are that bad and there offense is even worse. Minny likes running it up vs inferior out of conference opponents and if they get to 56 ....well Temple has what 3 poinst so far this yr!
Cincinnatti +29.5 -103 (2units)
Cincy is young and bad but a situational fade. Huge win on the road vs Ohio State and penn St on deck. Might keep it real simple to avoid any game film. You score 35 points and its tough to cover a 30 pt spread.
Central Michigan +1 -103
Akron beat a bad and underacheiving NCST squad. CMU won @ Akron last year and I like how they played against BC.
SD ST +14 -110
Really a Wisky fade.
Tenny +3.5 -110
I think most of us are shocked at Tenny being the dog at home at here. Whats best is people thinking Fla should be favored...the AF game was a look ahead spot.
Baylor +13 -110
To many points
TCU +1.5 -104
Fading TT as road chalk even this small.
UL Monroe +24.5 -108
Bama struggling on offense
FIU +5 +102
Really think BG is that bad...OT at home vs Buffalo. The defense has bad for awhile now
Ok St -29.5 -108
Should see at least 42here and I dont think FAU has 14 in them
3 Units
Northwestern -17 -109
Nice bounce back spot against a team who cant stop the run. Hopefully to much focus was on the late Coach randy Walker in the home upset last week. Plus 3 rd straight away...
Auburn -3 -120
Home team owns the series and I just feel the losses of Addai and Skylar Green are felt here
Nevada -2.5 -104
Nevada always tough at home and CSU hasnt looked like much
Stanford -1 +100
Edwards won 41 -38 @ Navy last year and dont see why it cant happen and wont happen again.
5 Units
Marshall +10 -107
The Thundering Herd had them beat at home last year and it seems as if KSU offense is even worse this year( 0 TDs on offense vs E.ill)
Over 52 -110 Mich St & Pitt
Expect the Panthers to break the 30 point mark here and Stanton shouldnt have much trouble getting 24 or so.
Michigan (bought) +6 -120
Was huge on ND last week however I feel that Michigan is much better prepared due to experience for this matchup. ND got some breaks early that really helped to keep PSU down. ND has won past 2 but as decent size dogs.....
Oregon -4.5 -106
Feel that Oregon will be able to score on this OU defense and not confident in the OU offense. Especaiily the new startes on the OL or Paul Thompson as OU has struggled somewhat 1st 2 games.
Teaser Miss St -1 , Ok St -19.5 , A7 M -17 (5units)
Miss St can play defense and at home should score enough on Tulane, the back 2 should be high scoring games with the dogs having inept offenses. Havent played and might subsitute A&M for someone else.
Leans -
BYU @ +6.5 or +7
Not impressed with the BC defense and Beck can air it out....
Virginia -10 -109
Really like fading the dog off a home upset but Cavs scare me that much I am trigger shy
Under 52 Lville
Since Miami's Offense is non existant if they can contain Lville its plausable. Problem is Miami hast stopped many good offenses lately....see LSU
Wash +3
Fade Fresno away
Clemson +4.5
FSU has zero running game and Clemson deserved to win @ FSU. Scare point is how bad Clemson plays @ FSU
Neb +18 and over 57
Thinking shootout and hoping Nebraska can score enough but I could see mid 20 win by USC.
A&M -27
Not sure I should fade the Army defense
UCF +1 -101
This is what I am thinking in addition to what was posted yesterday. Good Luck feel free to comment andhopefully I can expand on these
GL
5 comments:
I am the same guy who posted comments on the Marlins game. I found you because I used to look around on Covers to get a feel for general perception although I never posted. You caught my eye because your way of thinking about games is very similar to mine, although I definitely do not put as much time into the research that you do. Its funny because I look at your college board and have a couple of the same games circled(no. ill, ill). Since it is supposed to be a blog, and not just reading your picks and betting them......I really like Oregon, Cincinatti, and Baylor. Think Okalhoma with the young quarterback is in big trouble in Eugene. Okl has been lucky to win the two games this year not to mention they were both at home. I graduated from Ohio St. and am very familiar with the Bucks. The entire country watches them smoke Texas last week and now they come home for a "sandwich" game, although I hate to use these terms (Penn St. next week). Not to mention Cincy's coach is a Tressel graduate, and I doubt OSU will run it up. Baylor I just feel has an experienced qb and should start to gel with the new offense. Wash St. definitely aint no prize and alot of bettors got burned with Idaho last week, after they (Idaho) kept it so close with Mich St. At least a bunch of my buddies did. Just feel Baylor can easily win this outright let alone catching 13. If you have time, or see any validity in my reasoning, give a shout.
JK
Well It's nice to meet you and glad you responded. You always wonder @ Covers who is reading your posts because you see sometimes 1000 or 200o views and 25 responses.
As you will see I played all three of yours as well. Really agree with Oregon as I think Oregon will score 27++ here and really not sure that OC can break 21. Like yo said young QB and OL...
Agree with tehsandwich mentality but didnt get to crazy cause well Cincy is prett bad and I would be a bit nervous about this cover if I see Ohio St 42...mor ethen 42 and I really scared ..hoping like 38-10.
I like the mentality of 'bettors' get burned one week then hop on that team the following week...inflating or deflating the line.
I cant really give in depth responses till mid year cause Iplay lines and situations early on till teams form identities.
Please respond any time. I enjoy the conversation. Last nite I was just pissed off.
Like Michigan in this spot as well. Feel like they have been waiting a long time for this game. Might want to consider increasing Cent. Mich. Really like them after playing two top 25 teams relatively competetively and now catching points at home vs. Akron. Akron third straight road game and line is an overreaction to their upset at NCST last week. Not to mention CMU is hungry for first win. Also agree with treading lightly on Cincy just because of their struggles to score, but rarely see OSU cover those huge spreads, especially since they have already covered one earlier this year already.
The only way I bet is playing lines and situations. Love to take advantage of perception from week to week. Basically just having a contrarian mentality is the only way to be succesfull gambling on sports IMO. Wish you luck with the rest of your plays. JK
Great stuff as usual
Maryland was awful. I felt and posted somewhere it was going to be a WV blowout or Maryland getting the upset or losing on a late FG. So I wasnt suprised with the beating but was suprised that Maryland had the backdoor wide open.
Hey JK good stuff. I agree with your Michigan comments and thanks for the heads up I did overlook Akron's 3rd straight away. That is huge IMO. good point about Ohio State not being great as big chalk.
Pretty close to finalizing thsi card
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