Thursday Thoughts 12:35 start

Padres +109 (3units)

At first Harang did look cheap but then I researched this. Reds have dropped 20 of the past 27 day games. Basically cause of lack of offense as only Encarnacion(.295) , Hatteberg(.278), Aurilia (.268) and Freel (.261) are above .260 in the day. Now SD has 6 hitters above .288 and seven above .264 in day starts. The Reds also have only scored 5 runs or more twice in the past 2 games. The series opener with LaRue's walkoff HR was one of them. Basically I think SD is simply playing better now.

Hensley's road starts arent that strong buts it due more to about 4 crap starts then not being able to pitch on the road IMO. Take out his home start vs Cincy and Hensley has allowed 2 runs just 1 earned total in 3 of his past 4 starts spanning 21 innings. In the day he is 4-1 ( Sd 8-3) with a 4.25 ERA and only 4 Hrs allowed...think ballpark here s thats key!! In only 3 of his past 10 starts has he allowed more then 2 runs.

Harang has dropped 5 of 6 starts and is not pitching in his ideal situations. His home / away splits show a 2.93 era but 4.78 home era! At nite his era is 3.44 and the day just 4.50! basically it seems he always to many Hrs at home(16-8).

With Cincy not hitting and doing less then year in day starts runs could be scarce against Hensley who has been solid( think 6 innings and 2 runs here). With Harang while he might go 7+ innings it seems likely he would allow about 4 or 5runs.

Result : SD wins 4-2 and I nail the SP stats!(+3.27 units)

Giants -187 (3units)

Matt Cain pure and simple here well and an Aaron Cook fade. Cook has dropped 8 of his past 10 starts against SF and those victories werent exactly well pitched games. After winning 3 of his first 4 away starts he has dropped 8 of 9 away now. Part of the problem is they dont hit for Cook on the road (3.38 runs when he starts) and overall lost 19 of his 29 starts.

Cain's last 5 starts have him pitching 34 innings and allowing only 17 hits 2 runs just 1 earned( 14 BB -36 K & 0 HR)!! cain has been tough on COL in his 4 career starts vs them (winning three and losing 2-1). This yr in 2 home starts he has allowed 3 runs in 12 2/3 innings against them.

In the 2nd Half Cain has made 7 starts at home with SF going 5-2. He has gone at least 6 2/3 in those starts and 49 2/3 innings allowing only 30 hits and 8 runs. With a 14 BB to 50 K ratio and just 2 Hrs. In the day he has been equally a s tough with a 3.53 ERA & 1.22 Whip. In 12 starts he went 74 innings allwoing only 51 hits with 39 BBs and 84 K's (just 5 Hrs)!

Guess someone really loved Colorado....saw -173 late and as high as -205 at one point

Result : SFG win 5-0 and Cain is superb!(+3.00 units)

Over 5 First 5 Innings -102 Cubs & LAD (3units)

Wade Miller simply not ready to pitch in the majors IMO. Went this way cause the pens have been solid on both sides.

Some trends have LAD 29-14 OVER in day games. Cubs 9-3 Over in Sept and 12-4 Over @ Home witha 9 or 9.5 total. Cubs day games 42-26 Over and 26-16 Over vs LHP.

Result : FUCKED! my own fault should have stayed away. Pagan out at home , 1st and 2nd out LA cant score and Pierre picked off then a single !! (-3.06 units) NOW Iam really fucking PISSED liked LA and should have played the game over. Nothing like losing 3 units when you should have won 6!!!

Night

Baltimore -116 (3units) & Under 10.5 +100 (5units)

Loewen has been somewhat impressive and I am willing to overlook the beating he took at Fenway cause he repeatedly has turned in solid outings vs the Yankee lineup(7runs in 24 innings). Then we see Manny looks OUT again and I noticed the last time Boston won vs a LHP on the road was July 24th in Oakland against Zito. Since then 7 straight losses with little on offense( 1er last 24 innings away against LH starters(last 4 ) and lost 12 of past 15 against LH's).

Orioles are up and down vs LHP but I cant back DiNArdo on the road even with two decent outings vs Balt this year.

As for the total I have mentioned Boston wose offensively well Balt tends to struggle vs LHP and as Imentioned DiNArdo 2 decent starts already vs them.

Braves -123 (3units)

Trying to avoid the sweep with there best SP on the hill. James has won 5 of 7 and sports a 1.96 ERA past 7 starts.

Under 5 First 5 Innings -112 Atl & Philly (just 2units now) & Under 9 +100 (2units)

As I mentioned James 1.96 ERA past 7 starts spanning 46 innings and 7-2 3.15 ERA @ Nite. He was soli allowing 1 run in 6 innings in his lone starts vs Philly. Moyer has pitched well as Philly outside of the NYM start and turned in some nice work vs the NL in 7 starts. Philly also has managed only 6 runs past 3 games against LHSP. Take out James bad start at home vs NY and he has allowed just 19 earned in 46 2/3 innings

Moyer was solid at home vs ATL as well going 7+ innings allowing 3 runs. In 3 of 4 with ATL he went at least 6 inn and didnt allow more then 3 runs. With Seattle he threw 3 gems vs the NL...24 Innings and 5 runs just 15 hits and 5 BB's.

Might play the game under as well but thinking 5-3 would ahve been on it had it stayed @ 9.5.

Under 9.5 +108 NYY & TB (5units)

The Yanks have CY Wang on the hill tonite who has gone under in 11 0f 15 home starts , 6 straight at home and 8 of 9 at home. Basically in his last 13 home starts( started slow after being hurt in Spring) he has allowed more then 2 runs just 3 times (4,4,and 5 in his worst start to LAA). After struggling vs TB last year he has been rock solid allowing just 11 hits and 3 earned in 24 1/3 innings.

Outside of Kazmir , Sheilds has been there best starter. Only knock is he is real solid or pretty bad. He already has one solid performance atthe Stadium and about 3 striaght solid road starts. The Red Sox are on deck so maybe a look ahead....

Value Play TB +1.5 +118 (unit)

RESULT- Canceled due to Wang being replaced by Karstens

Replaced by: Under 10 +103 (3units)NYY&TB.

LAA -126 (3units)

Really just riding LAA here with Escobar and fading Volquez. Edision has ben shelled lately and Escobar pitching fairly well and owns some nice career starts @ Arlington as an Angel. Volquez has 1 quality start in 8 career ones and Texas is 1-7 when he starts.

Looking at KC and the Under 9.5 In KC also slight lean towards under in Minny!

Last game of the nite:

Royals +107 (2units) & Under 9.5 +108 (3units)

Both teams struggle against LHP as Seattle produces 3.8 runs and KC 4.4 but has lost some key bats in Sanders , Sweeney and Teahen recently. The pens are question marks but hopefully its no worse then 3-3 after 6 innings. Seattle has managed to score 4 runs or less in 9 of 12 and is coming off a shutout which they are just 4 -10 SU next game. They are 23-16 UNDERS vs LHP, 10 -3 Under on Thurs (silly trend) and 8-3 under in Sept...sleepy bats. Washburn has struggled on the road but has enjoyed pitching @ KC in his career. Also Sea 10-3 under vs teams with losing records in the 2nd Half.
Thats all!
GL- Passed on the Reds over but looking hard at the Dodgers here(maybe Under SF)