NFL Week 2 Thoughts

Only posted the Monday Nite games in week 1 which was a debacle. This is all preliminary.

Over 37 -101 Miami & Buffalo (5units)

Be patient here waiting to see if this dips below 37 but dont let 37 get away either. Both defenses had solid 1st Halves before IMO showing there true colors. Buffalo playing @ NE watched as the Pats went 12 plays 93 yds for a TD , then 14 plays for 63 yds for a short FG , and 11 play 53 yds to end the game and run the clock out. On 1 second half possession Brady was picked on his 1st attempt. Last year Lee Evans had 3 1st Quarter TD's in Miami from Losman and thats a matchup they will look to exploit again. Chambers had a huge 4th quarter finishing with 15 catches for 238 yards. Both defenses had to little to say in stopping opponents running games in the opener. The Pats ran up and down the field on Buffalo and Ronnie Brown will be licking his chops here. Was really unimpressed with Miamis revamped secondary as well. While buffalo did little after the first quarter they gave away alot of momentum in the opening drive of the second half by getting stuffed on a 4th and 1 and NE's 7 yd line. They had moved 10 plays for 69 yards and the failure to kick the FG or convert IMO opened the door for the Pats to come back(down 17-7 at the time, could have been 20-7 or so). Just seems like atotal based on past reputations.

Total watch 42 -101(over ) Cincy & Cleveland

The more I look at this matchup with Cleveland banged up in the secondary and Cincy probably getting Housh back it seems enticing. Cleveland should have allowed alot more then 19 points to New Orleans. They had 3 FG's inside the yd line( two inside the 5 yd line) and a better offense would have executed IMO. Cincy had a big 2nd Quarter and IMO just cruised afterward. Real hard for me to believe the Bengals dont get at least 28 - 31 points here. Cleveland lost Jurevicus to injury but didnt play all that bad in the 2nd Half vs New Orleans. Cincy had the benfit of playing against a new watered down OL that is much worse then I expected. I am thinking Cle usually plays Cincy tough and should manage at least 14-17 points here.

Lions +9.5 -115

Lions received 7 points or more on 3 occassions in 2005 and covered ATS on 3.

Texans +13 -103

Just one of those spots were Indy could be real flat after the Manning Bowl. The Colts defense didnt look that good and maybe karma pays back that NYG BS loss. From what I understand the 'sharps' played this at 14 and 15 which is why the number dropped.

Over 42 -112 Philly & NYG

McNabb was able to spread the ball around vs Houston and NY struggled stopping 3rd conversions and in general against Peyton. Philly will be without Lito Shephard is OUT and Ron Hood will start in his place and expect NY to attack that.

Raiders +11.5 +100

I know Oakland looked terrible but this number is ridiculous IMO. most people didnt think Balt could win in TB now they think they will crush Oakland?? Hopefully the deal Porter by this game and get that headache resolved. I just wasnt overly impressed with Balt's offense and Oaklands defense wasnt that bad except for the penalties. Ravens go 80 yards for the opening TD and then what? Hardly anything till the TB defense is exhausted after continous 2 minute offensive possessions. I am still in shock how bad the Oak OL looked but this offense just has to many weapons to be so poor again. I though Oakland played well on the road in its first 5 road games but fell apart afterwards.

Packers +2 +-102 (7units) & ML +116 (3units)

Ridiculous line!!! A team that lost 52 -3 @ Lambeau last season is now favored there?? GB lost to a solid playoff team in Chicago, who did the Sainst beat ...the F'N Browns! I think GB struggled some in pass defense but the Saints didnt impress me in the passing game. They did have a nice day running it and GB has been tough to run in Lambeau. NO had poor efficiency in the red zone going just 1/4 and 0/2 in goal to go. GB allowed allowed only 1 offensive TD and it was a nice pass thrown 40-50 yds to Berrian. Not sure NO has a deep threat to spread the defense. GB should benefit greatly from Koren Robinson if he is able toplay. Just a tremendous overreaction IMO.

Falcons +5.5 -102 looking to buy to 6(7units)

TB will need to bounce back and you couldnt have selected a better opponent as TB has won 3 staright in the series. As well as 4 of 6 in ATL and 7 of 10 overall. Vick was solid but his completion percentage was lacking and lets face it they wont run all over TB like Carolina. carolina was missing its star WR whats so impressive about that win?? Bucs were 5-3 away last year SU and 3-1 ATS as a dog. Loooking for TB to get healthy on the OL( and Quarles @ LB) and curious to see how bad Kearney and Abraham got hurt.

Teams who were shutout past 3 years are 12-8 SU next game and played all 3 from last week as UNDERDOGS.

Here are the 4 PM starts:

Over 44 SF & STL / SF +3

Like the total more. Really cant say that STL defense improved all that much because I felt it was Denver just imploding more then anything. Bottom line is you have to expect this to be a close game played in the 20's at least. SF defeated the Rams both meetings last year and you have to like what we saw from Alex Smith and Co in Arizona. The defense leaves some to be desired but thats why we expect STL to score some. Frank Gore looked good and dont let the absences of Larry Allen and Jonas Jennings worry you cause they missed much of the opener anyway. The Rams allowed 160 yards at home on the ground! Then double check and see Alex Smith threw for 286 yards on the road!! SF had 217 yards rushing @ STL last year and Stephen Jackson hasnt been solid running against SF.

Over 47 -104 Seattle & Arizona

The Cardinal defense was extremely unimpressive and thats not good news considering there next opponent. Seattle scored 30+ both games last year and saw Shaun Alexander runs for 313 yds in 2 games!!! Then remember that outside of a 17-10 victory in SF the Arizonas defense allowed at least 28 points in all of there road games not including the last game of the season( so 6 of 7). We know the firepower Arizona is now packing and hopefully a few more of those drives turn into 7 's on the board instead of 3. Thinking 31-17 is reasonable since only NY 21 and Atl 18 topped 17 points.

Thinking KC +10.5 and Under 40-113 KC & Den

Huard probably isnt going to do much but we still have LJ and expect Herm to run a ton!

Jets +6 -105 (also Under 37 possibly)

New Englan unimpressive in a 2 point home win vs Buffalo. My honest feeling is this team is in turmoil as players continually get discarded there and really they are thin @ WR. Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown combined for 4 catches with Gabriel and Jackson not playing. The NYJ defense played well until momentum sawyed Tenny's way after a few botched FG's.

Initial thoughts