Problem with typing my thoughts it leaves less time for decisions. Quick decision on the 140 total in USF was a pass...hating myself for that now as well as passing on the Davidson over...only played 1/2 unit on Iowa 1st H as well...added Arky State though....and last minute after seeing the Temple total drop to 134 played a 1/2 unit on the over...didnt finish the late games yet had to do NBA ....
NBA :
Under 194 or Under 95 1st H not sure what has better value...
NYK has scored mid 80's in 4 straight , 5 of 6 and 6 of 8. With only the games versus Pho and Sac seeing more...sort of self explatanory..Utah been scored mid 90's to a 102....but playing solid defense making it apoint to keep teams under 100 pt....so if NY wasnts to win defense most beon the menu cause the offense is struggling......Some chatter that the Utah line is soft but I disagree as I expected 5.5 or 6 and we opened at 5.5....NY has to show me some consistency and Utah typical struggles on the road as medium chalk...
Monday, November 26, 2007
NCAAB :
like everyone out there trying to get a feel for some of these teams if not all. One thing that helps is I rely on determination of weak or strong lines combined with situational aspects....
Akron -4 -120: of course it went from -4.5 to -5.5 while I was typing
I think the sentiment with Akron is they aren't as good as years past. However we can't rely on the Alaska tournament to make this determination. They clearly didnt play well vs inferior competition but it was there first 3 games of the season. Now they have returned home and beat up on a cupcake squad. What has Temple done to date? Okay they beat BG as Pick tahnks in part to a huge second half where BG went cold. BG is a team with anew head coach off a 3-13 conference record who is not is the class of Akron..Hell Akron was -8.5 and -17.5 vs BG last season. Temple barely beat Marist a MAAC school , lost to Charleston and Providence in Hawaii. They have been traveling alot and at some point that will catch up to them....can Wood continue to play well and can Allen stay out of foul trouble...
So basically Akron has been tough at home , lost only 7 games last season , are facing a team who is on the upswing but not there yet and last if TEmple is a PK vs BG then shouldnt this be closer to 8 or so......?? Plus remember how Temple couldnt score vs providence late?? That would concern me vs a solid defensive squad....
Would have prefered the Under at 139 or better...thinking 71-63 game....so 136ish cuts it close..
Over 140 USF and FIU :{LEAN}
Would lean towards USF cause this is FU 1st quality opponent. Simply put I expect both teams to be in the 70s here and ....game should see 150's or better...USF should get to the line and I am hopefully they can combine for 70% from the lien despite high 60's avg to date...total drop has be looking at this more closely...
App St +6 :
Sure Davidson has revenge on its mind but getting revenge on the road isnt quite that easy. Especially when u have to win by 7 points on top of that. It seem sthat Davidson are the public darlings of the mid major ranks now. They hung with UNC in the opener after a great postseason last year. Problem is App State beat them on the road last year. App St has lost some qaulity players and Davidson is back seemingly in tack. However I think Davidson probably wins by 2-4 points in a close battle that Davidson pulls ahead in the final two minutes....thinking about the OVER 151 as well...
1st H Under and 1st H Iowa :
Simply put Wake's 1st true road game . Iowa could be tired after the Texas trip but its not a trip where they had to leave the country so I am not weighing that heavily. Iowa has offenive issues and if they play zone they force WF to shoot which has not been a strong point to date.....
Cant say I know a thing about Murray State or Ark St . However I think Murray State is about 6 pts better then E.ILL on a neutral court( ArK St last opponent). It appears Ark State is also about 6 points better then E.Ill on a neutral court..so I would make Murray St -1 on a neutral vs Ark St and ONLY -4.5 at home. They opened at -5.5 and went to -6.5 . So my guessestimates have this as a FAT Line but I have absolutely noknowledge to back it up and yet this line was driven higher.....this could be a public sentiment fade at +7 -120....not sure though a pure guess by me that this line is off....Ark St +7 -120...
Still working on later games.....GL
like everyone out there trying to get a feel for some of these teams if not all. One thing that helps is I rely on determination of weak or strong lines combined with situational aspects....
Akron -4 -120: of course it went from -4.5 to -5.5 while I was typing
I think the sentiment with Akron is they aren't as good as years past. However we can't rely on the Alaska tournament to make this determination. They clearly didnt play well vs inferior competition but it was there first 3 games of the season. Now they have returned home and beat up on a cupcake squad. What has Temple done to date? Okay they beat BG as Pick tahnks in part to a huge second half where BG went cold. BG is a team with anew head coach off a 3-13 conference record who is not is the class of Akron..Hell Akron was -8.5 and -17.5 vs BG last season. Temple barely beat Marist a MAAC school , lost to Charleston and Providence in Hawaii. They have been traveling alot and at some point that will catch up to them....can Wood continue to play well and can Allen stay out of foul trouble...
So basically Akron has been tough at home , lost only 7 games last season , are facing a team who is on the upswing but not there yet and last if TEmple is a PK vs BG then shouldnt this be closer to 8 or so......?? Plus remember how Temple couldnt score vs providence late?? That would concern me vs a solid defensive squad....
Would have prefered the Under at 139 or better...thinking 71-63 game....so 136ish cuts it close..
Over 140 USF and FIU :{LEAN}
Would lean towards USF cause this is FU 1st quality opponent. Simply put I expect both teams to be in the 70s here and ....game should see 150's or better...USF should get to the line and I am hopefully they can combine for 70% from the lien despite high 60's avg to date...total drop has be looking at this more closely...
App St +6 :
Sure Davidson has revenge on its mind but getting revenge on the road isnt quite that easy. Especially when u have to win by 7 points on top of that. It seem sthat Davidson are the public darlings of the mid major ranks now. They hung with UNC in the opener after a great postseason last year. Problem is App State beat them on the road last year. App St has lost some qaulity players and Davidson is back seemingly in tack. However I think Davidson probably wins by 2-4 points in a close battle that Davidson pulls ahead in the final two minutes....thinking about the OVER 151 as well...
1st H Under and 1st H Iowa :
Simply put Wake's 1st true road game . Iowa could be tired after the Texas trip but its not a trip where they had to leave the country so I am not weighing that heavily. Iowa has offenive issues and if they play zone they force WF to shoot which has not been a strong point to date.....
Cant say I know a thing about Murray State or Ark St . However I think Murray State is about 6 pts better then E.ILL on a neutral court( ArK St last opponent). It appears Ark State is also about 6 points better then E.Ill on a neutral court..so I would make Murray St -1 on a neutral vs Ark St and ONLY -4.5 at home. They opened at -5.5 and went to -6.5 . So my guessestimates have this as a FAT Line but I have absolutely noknowledge to back it up and yet this line was driven higher.....this could be a public sentiment fade at +7 -120....not sure though a pure guess by me that this line is off....Ark St +7 -120...
Still working on later games.....GL
What a great game to watch last night . I have to admit I really didn't see that coming. More so from the offensive standpoint though. I did think while Philly had some issues on defense if they hit hard( make NE know your there) and did not allow huge , quick passing plays they could make NE work for there points. I thought NE would be around 35 points but my concern was the Philly offense(10pts maybe?). I never thought Feeley could play so well. He made two huge mistakes that cost the game. The bright side is without his excellent play it never would have been a game.
It goes back to NE being a well oil machine and the rest of the league always trying to make something out of nothing. Like why throw that pass in the end zone ? You score you allow to much time for the NE offense. Why not continue to keep it small and grind it out? That's because most coaches and players get "lost" of situational play while the game is going on. The PATS simply do not. NE has played 5 opponents with defenses that hit hard enough to disrupt NE offense. SD , Dallas , Philly , Indy and maybe Cle. The Browns if not for bad turnovers played them MUCH closer then the final score. Think about Dallas led in the 3rd quarter but there secondary couldn't get it done , Indy led to start the 4th q , SD was never in it and Philly led in the 4th Q. NE will DESTROY inferior opponents but they are far from invincible. Plus you have the added motivation of being 3 TD Underdogs now...I think if Heap plays the Ravens if there defense is healthy can do the same. By the same I mean compete with NE....
MNF:
What a MNF game. The injury list is over flowing for these teams. The WEATHER sucks and Heinz Field not a great field to begin with is hosting its 3rd game since Friday night. They have put down new sod but it may be a moot point due to the rain , though the field is covered. We know Pitt will be minus two key players but in general there level of play should not drop much here. They pitched a shutout vs SEA @ home with there all-pro safety out and Holmes absence limits the er ability to stretch the field.
Miami :
1) John Beck starts @ QB in his 2nd career start on MNF no less...( more pressure and jitters). Last week he was 9 of 22 with 109 yds passing. The Phins had ONLY 8 plays of 10+ yards on offense and TWO of 20 + yds. They were 1 for 7 passing on 3rd down and 0 for 3 running for it. Beck did manage to gain 3 yds for a 1st Down on 3rd down early in the game( so 2 of 11). They clearly seem to have a tough time making plays on offense and Chatman who had 3 of the 10+ yd plays is OUT. Also Chatman a big back couldn't get short yardage 3rd downs on the ground so that is another era they will suffer.
2) Ronnie Brown done for the season was capably replaced by Jesse Chatman who will be absent tonight. That leaves Samkon Gado and former stud Ricky Williams who has not played in awhile and who hasn't been hit in how long?? Practiced one whole week with a new offensive system....just doesn't seem to be any positive in this situation. Especially cause there seem to be some expectations for Ricky Williams here cause he may get 20 touches....remember when Testaverde came in off the streets...there were NO EXPECTATIONS and he performed fairly well. That's a key difference.
3) Another LB done in Derrick Pope?? He did make the walk through yesterday and is in PITT supposedly. For the most part the Miami defense has held it together past 3 weeks though can you find 3 more struggling offenses then NYG , Buffalo and Philly having Donovan throw 2 costly picks only to be replaced by a QB who hadn't played this year.
4) With Miami WINLESS and a new young QB they will be trying very hard every week to WIN....
5) While the Miami defense played well...did it really ?? I didn't see the game last week. having three INTs inside Miami's 30 cost the Philly offense anywhere between 9 and 21 points ....on top of the 17 they scored....the second half Philly scored twice in four possessions. The last possession they basically up 10 pts milked the clock for 6 + minutes and gave Miami one final play....so they did what they had despite the boxscoe maybe not showing it...
6} While Pitt has smoked Balt , SF , and Buffalo at home while pitching a shutout vs Seattle people still seem to miss how good there defense can be. Yes they scored alot of points versus Balt but ONLY cause the Ravens offense is gross with McNair at QB and they had short after short field that day.....the browns managed a TD on the opening drive but little afterwards. The had a punt return for a TD , a kick return to the 5 yd line or so and INT deep in there own territory starting CLE at the 18 yd line...so keeping Ginn shut down is a key ...Teams in general though struggle to move the ball on vs the Pitt defense w/o help...The Cle game came after the brutal hitting Balt MNF game and after road games @ Denver and Cincy..so Pitt looked beat up heading into Cle and after surviving that game were flat @ NYJ who after all they were big favs over...
I dont think Pitt plays to its opponent as much as it just has a huge difference in play at home versus the road....they lost games late @ Denver , @ Arizona and @ NYJ...I wouldn't say they were beaten but they did lose.....
Now we have Pitt off a bad road loss on TV again. Monday Night has been good to them...I would say they have something to prove after the Jets loss and even NE struggle last night. The key though is the awful weather( and possible shit field conditions) that could neutralize alot of there dominance. How will Miami score ?? Last week they had a punt return and Ginn is dangerous and Pitt has shown special teams can be soft at times. They also had 4 shots at the 1 yd line and couldn't score....remember that AJ Feeley has long been in the Philly system and done this before...been great in relief of McNabb due to injury...John Beck doesn't fit that mold...so dont compare last night to here.....
I think Pitt should win 27-3 maybe 27-10...
Alot of points (-16) but I just didn't see anything from Miami last week to like them here. I was on SF cause they showed improvement vs STL falling basically a play short while showing there defense was still playing hard. They have an inconsistent offense which turns the ball over to much and settles for FGS often on long drives. There defense while solid is not a shut down defense....Pitts can be...Think about this the same Buffalo team that went down to Miami was blasted in Pitt as 10 pt dogs...at this point with Beck starting and Chatman OUT the Bills are probably a TD better on a neutral field( they were short favs in Miami) so now does -16 seem all that high.....???
If Pitt plays there "a" game and doesn't make mistakes they should easily cover the huge number.....one thing that NFL has taught me this year is that bad teams are bad this year week in and week out....
Right now all that is holding me back from Pitt is the weather and the playing field....if it was a normal day out I would be on the Steelers already...however the weather and field conditions are an unknown that can hurt Pitts ability to perform at peak performance and that's what you want when you have a big number..
It goes back to NE being a well oil machine and the rest of the league always trying to make something out of nothing. Like why throw that pass in the end zone ? You score you allow to much time for the NE offense. Why not continue to keep it small and grind it out? That's because most coaches and players get "lost" of situational play while the game is going on. The PATS simply do not. NE has played 5 opponents with defenses that hit hard enough to disrupt NE offense. SD , Dallas , Philly , Indy and maybe Cle. The Browns if not for bad turnovers played them MUCH closer then the final score. Think about Dallas led in the 3rd quarter but there secondary couldn't get it done , Indy led to start the 4th q , SD was never in it and Philly led in the 4th Q. NE will DESTROY inferior opponents but they are far from invincible. Plus you have the added motivation of being 3 TD Underdogs now...I think if Heap plays the Ravens if there defense is healthy can do the same. By the same I mean compete with NE....
MNF:
What a MNF game. The injury list is over flowing for these teams. The WEATHER sucks and Heinz Field not a great field to begin with is hosting its 3rd game since Friday night. They have put down new sod but it may be a moot point due to the rain , though the field is covered. We know Pitt will be minus two key players but in general there level of play should not drop much here. They pitched a shutout vs SEA @ home with there all-pro safety out and Holmes absence limits the er ability to stretch the field.
Miami :
1) John Beck starts @ QB in his 2nd career start on MNF no less...( more pressure and jitters). Last week he was 9 of 22 with 109 yds passing. The Phins had ONLY 8 plays of 10+ yards on offense and TWO of 20 + yds. They were 1 for 7 passing on 3rd down and 0 for 3 running for it. Beck did manage to gain 3 yds for a 1st Down on 3rd down early in the game( so 2 of 11). They clearly seem to have a tough time making plays on offense and Chatman who had 3 of the 10+ yd plays is OUT. Also Chatman a big back couldn't get short yardage 3rd downs on the ground so that is another era they will suffer.
2) Ronnie Brown done for the season was capably replaced by Jesse Chatman who will be absent tonight. That leaves Samkon Gado and former stud Ricky Williams who has not played in awhile and who hasn't been hit in how long?? Practiced one whole week with a new offensive system....just doesn't seem to be any positive in this situation. Especially cause there seem to be some expectations for Ricky Williams here cause he may get 20 touches....remember when Testaverde came in off the streets...there were NO EXPECTATIONS and he performed fairly well. That's a key difference.
3) Another LB done in Derrick Pope?? He did make the walk through yesterday and is in PITT supposedly. For the most part the Miami defense has held it together past 3 weeks though can you find 3 more struggling offenses then NYG , Buffalo and Philly having Donovan throw 2 costly picks only to be replaced by a QB who hadn't played this year.
4) With Miami WINLESS and a new young QB they will be trying very hard every week to WIN....
5) While the Miami defense played well...did it really ?? I didn't see the game last week. having three INTs inside Miami's 30 cost the Philly offense anywhere between 9 and 21 points ....on top of the 17 they scored....the second half Philly scored twice in four possessions. The last possession they basically up 10 pts milked the clock for 6 + minutes and gave Miami one final play....so they did what they had despite the boxscoe maybe not showing it...
6} While Pitt has smoked Balt , SF , and Buffalo at home while pitching a shutout vs Seattle people still seem to miss how good there defense can be. Yes they scored alot of points versus Balt but ONLY cause the Ravens offense is gross with McNair at QB and they had short after short field that day.....the browns managed a TD on the opening drive but little afterwards. The had a punt return for a TD , a kick return to the 5 yd line or so and INT deep in there own territory starting CLE at the 18 yd line...so keeping Ginn shut down is a key ...Teams in general though struggle to move the ball on vs the Pitt defense w/o help...The Cle game came after the brutal hitting Balt MNF game and after road games @ Denver and Cincy..so Pitt looked beat up heading into Cle and after surviving that game were flat @ NYJ who after all they were big favs over...
I dont think Pitt plays to its opponent as much as it just has a huge difference in play at home versus the road....they lost games late @ Denver , @ Arizona and @ NYJ...I wouldn't say they were beaten but they did lose.....
Now we have Pitt off a bad road loss on TV again. Monday Night has been good to them...I would say they have something to prove after the Jets loss and even NE struggle last night. The key though is the awful weather( and possible shit field conditions) that could neutralize alot of there dominance. How will Miami score ?? Last week they had a punt return and Ginn is dangerous and Pitt has shown special teams can be soft at times. They also had 4 shots at the 1 yd line and couldn't score....remember that AJ Feeley has long been in the Philly system and done this before...been great in relief of McNabb due to injury...John Beck doesn't fit that mold...so dont compare last night to here.....
I think Pitt should win 27-3 maybe 27-10...
Alot of points (-16) but I just didn't see anything from Miami last week to like them here. I was on SF cause they showed improvement vs STL falling basically a play short while showing there defense was still playing hard. They have an inconsistent offense which turns the ball over to much and settles for FGS often on long drives. There defense while solid is not a shut down defense....Pitts can be...Think about this the same Buffalo team that went down to Miami was blasted in Pitt as 10 pt dogs...at this point with Beck starting and Chatman OUT the Bills are probably a TD better on a neutral field( they were short favs in Miami) so now does -16 seem all that high.....???
If Pitt plays there "a" game and doesn't make mistakes they should easily cover the huge number.....one thing that NFL has taught me this year is that bad teams are bad this year week in and week out....
Right now all that is holding me back from Pitt is the weather and the playing field....if it was a normal day out I would be on the Steelers already...however the weather and field conditions are an unknown that can hurt Pitts ability to perform at peak performance and that's what you want when you have a big number..
Sunday, November 25, 2007
WOW! can you have worst LUCK??
Rams choke like I knew they would without Bulger. However the ball on the 4 yd line with 4 tries they cant get in. Inside the half yard line they fumble the snap....
Campbell throws NOT one BUT TWO picks inside the TB 25 in the final 5 minutes...
Losman throws a pick inside the red one down 22-14 in the final 1/2 of the 4th quarter....
At least fading CLE was just a stupid move.....
OAK and Minny win ouright.....
Mix in a Chi Bulls choke and AGGRAVATED is an UNDERSTATEMENT right now!
Rams choke like I knew they would without Bulger. However the ball on the 4 yd line with 4 tries they cant get in. Inside the half yard line they fumble the snap....
Campbell throws NOT one BUT TWO picks inside the TB 25 in the final 5 minutes...
Losman throws a pick inside the red one down 22-14 in the final 1/2 of the 4th quarter....
At least fading CLE was just a stupid move.....
OAK and Minny win ouright.....
Mix in a Chi Bulls choke and AGGRAVATED is an UNDERSTATEMENT right now!
NBA ...
Bulls +5.5 : Yesterday I had NYK in the afternoon delight. Today I flip back to da Bulls. Basically Chi wasruined by an awful 2nd quarter yesterday and won the OTHER 3 quaarters. They also made a late push but fell just short. The Raps are playing shorthanded with some key injuries and let one get away in Cle yesterday. Following the ones that got away in Dallas and vs GSW in the pas week. I think while Chi is on its last game of the trip they are desperate for a WIN. Deng should play and that is a HUGE offensive boost. Despite the long trip they havent had a horrible travel schedule with long rest before yesterdays game. Tor had a rough trip to Dallas , memphis and Cle playing 3 tough games...now 4th in 6 days with a short bench.. Chi plays defense and should wear on the home squad....not to mention CHI has some revenge for that embarrasment earlier.....
NFL:
Over 36.5 Jags -120( Mathis OUT @ CB)
Raiders +5
Skins +4 -120
Rams +4 -120
Texans +4 -120
Vikings +8 -120
Panthers +3 -125(small)
strong> Bills +10 -130
Still working.....GOOD LUCK
Bulls +5.5 : Yesterday I had NYK in the afternoon delight. Today I flip back to da Bulls. Basically Chi wasruined by an awful 2nd quarter yesterday and won the OTHER 3 quaarters. They also made a late push but fell just short. The Raps are playing shorthanded with some key injuries and let one get away in Cle yesterday. Following the ones that got away in Dallas and vs GSW in the pas week. I think while Chi is on its last game of the trip they are desperate for a WIN. Deng should play and that is a HUGE offensive boost. Despite the long trip they havent had a horrible travel schedule with long rest before yesterdays game. Tor had a rough trip to Dallas , memphis and Cle playing 3 tough games...now 4th in 6 days with a short bench.. Chi plays defense and should wear on the home squad....not to mention CHI has some revenge for that embarrasment earlier.....
NFL:
Over 36.5 Jags -120( Mathis OUT @ CB)
Raiders +5
Skins +4 -120
Rams +4 -120
Texans +4 -120
Vikings +8 -120
Panthers +3 -125(small)
strong> Bills +10 -130
Still working.....GOOD LUCK
NFL Thoughts :
Looking at the early starts the UNDERDOGS really stand out .
Buffalo Bills +8 :
Doesn't this spread look quite big ? I think I am in the minority of people who believed that last Sunday Buffalo had no shot in that game. For someone who hates to lay road chalk I didn't waiver at the -10 for the 1st Half. The Bills are a bend don't break type team in every sense. Facing a team NE who is loaded with offensive firepower and backed with a stud defense was a task they could not overcome. If you referenced the Dallas game there is one huge difference between Dallas and NE. That is NE NEVER EVER seems to beat itself. They don't make unforced errors. Why did Buffalo play Dallas tight and all you have to do is look at Tony Romo's play. The PATS are a well oil machined with a history of shutting down Lee Evans. How would Buffalo crack 14 points ??
Anyway that beating provides motivation for a 5-5 Buffalo team and creates negative public perception.
Lets remember that Jax has now lost Mike Peterson there self proclaimed defensive leader and possibly CB Rashean Mathis. This is addition to the loss of Marcus Stroud. Peterson loss puts another LB in his spot and puts a bench player in the other spot. Really creating 2 players in different positions then last week.
The Jags struggle vs the pass and flat out stop the run. Well the one thing Losman can do is throw deep balls to Lee Evans. If Mathis is OUT the advantage becomes even greater but still he figures to be less then 100%. Rivers looked like crap versus Indy then went for 300 yards vs Jax. So look for Buffalo to be able to put some points on the board here. Also note that Jags could be in look ahead mode with a game @ Indy the following week. This year Jags are 0-2 laying more then 7 and last year were 2-2 (0-2 as DD previous year). Not the greatest team laying big numbers sort of like how Carolina is. WHich is due to there history of being a solid defense who depends on running the ball.
Despite UNDER trends this seems like an OVER to me cause both defenses are overrated....something to consider could be the Bills team total...14 ??
Skins +3.5
Call me crazy but I don't see how TB in the eyes of oddsmakers is even or even slightly better then Wash? After all the Skins were -3 to Philly a few weeks ago , only +3 @ GB , -9 vs Zona and so on....now yes I will agree these were mostly bad lines I faded. They were off but not extremely off say with in 3 points of real value IMO.
Even with the Skins injuries I think this should be closer to -1.5 TB. After all Campbell has played TB as that was his 1st career start in 20-17 loss last year. The secondary is banged up but held up well outside of Springs performance in Dallas. Reportedly he just wasn't there mentally being in Dallas where his father is hospitalized among other things.
Outside of the Pats road game the Skins have been fairly solid in 4 road games and should have won in GB. Look at the QBs TB has defeated..Leftwich / Harrington , Warner , Kerry Collins and barely( actually lost to Quinn Gray ) , David Carr , Marc Bulger with bad ribs in a monsoon and Drew Brees early on as 5 pt home dogs.
Huge game for the 5-5 Skins and as maligned s the secondary is with injuries you have to take away one WR on TB and let Graham beat you..
Campbell has 5 TD vs 1 INT past 2 weeks and is spreading the ball around well. Thrash(still OUT) , McCardell , S.Moss , Randle El and Cooley all involved.
Rams +3.5
How can I not like a home dog playing a divisional game. First thing is the last meeting is way misleading. I believe Torry Holt dropped a pass that would have been a TD right after Sea's Burleson returned the 2nd H kickoff for a TD. They just fell apart after that. I wont knock the Rams for last week cause SF has been solid on defense nearly every week. Hasselback and Hackett don't look to be 100% and Alexander is still out. Rams are getting healthier each week and now Stussie returns. If not for Stephen Jackson re injuring himself in the CLE game they would be on a 3 game win streak.
Raiders +5 :
Lets see OAK's CBs are healthy again and they stink vs the run. Oh wait . LJ is OUT still and Holmes HAD TO retire! That leaves Kolby Smith with 10 carries and 17 yards as your featured back. Mix in the young Brodie Coyle and Dwayne Bowe and this is an awfully RAW offense.
People will get excited about the way the played INDY. Which was great but whats changed? They outplayed them and lost . Do they know how to win and can they kick FG's??? Serious questions to ask.
Culpepper found the deep touch again hooking up on some long plays. It's hard to believe but Oak has the better offense at this point and better kicker. To me the defenses are even but KC has home field but playing at Arrowhead is not such a big deal these days.....also look @ OAK schedule this may be the last winnable game for them.
Vikings +7.5
A game truly loaded with injuries. All world stud RB Peterson is almost definitely OUT . More intriguing to me is the fact Tony Richardson looks doubtful and that is quite the loss IMO. Also on defense Winfield figures not to play.
This would be more a play AGAINST NYG then on Minnesota. Sure they are a dome team in the cold but they won at CHI in 55 degree weather should be low 40s here. NYG will be w/o Ward and Jacobs at RB leaving Droughns who hasn't looked great in awhile. Plax has disappeared the past 4 games and to his actions are telling me his ankle is slowly getting worse if anything. Last 4 games he has no TDS and that's the way to beat Minny by throwing deep. NYG also lost Kiwaunka last week....
Texans +3.5
Now that HOUSTON is healthy offensively they to me are the equivalent of CLE. However I see a Browns team off 3 straight WARS and a defense continually losing bodies. They had the comeback versus Seattle in OT , the battle @ Pitt , followed by one of the luckiest wins in NFL history last week @ Balt. When Houston has had a healthy AJ and Schaub they have looked good. Just think this is the perfect situation where the lucky breaks catch up to them as the should have lost in STL a month ago as well.
The other games I don't see how we can look at Cincy or New Orleans. Tenny might have haynesworth back and he really seems to be the key to the defense. Cincy has banged WRs in CJ , Housmanzadeh and G.Holt. That's not a good sign. Tenny is definitely the better team if you focus on the fact that Cincy has just 3 wins vs Balt twice and NYJ and were smoked by Arizona !!! With the Saints Reggie Bush isn't looked so good health wise. The fact that Testaverde is probably OUT doesn't help BUT CAROLINA won in NO with Carr and Moore already. Some how the Panthers offense actually showed some life last week. The defense hasn't been that bad and if the offense would just protect the ball it would help the Panther defense out. Which by the way Caroina still looking for HOME WIN #1 and this looks like a great spot...so lean CAR and even Ten slightly
Later ....
49ers +10.5
The Niner offense is a concern but I think Dilfer is progressing and they almost pulled one out last week. Who is Zona to lay 10 points to anyone?? Sure if they limit SF to 10 or less points they can cover but I think SF could suprise. Some of which is due to Warner's propensity to fumble and make negative plays.
Last 7 meetings Zona 4-3 with 3 FG losses so usually competitive games.
Ravens @ SD
Tough game because BALT could show up flat here and if there defense isnt up to par then it could be ugly. We know Balt lost Pryce again and there CB situation is question mark. Heap and Williams appear OUT again. I think Boller gives them a much better chance of competing but he is mistake prone.
SD defense will make it hard on McGahee and leave it to Boller. Huge game for SD
Bears -1
Right now I cant be excited about Den play past 2 weeks. It has been better but I dont think they are better then Chi. The Bears I thought played well in Sea considering it was there second trip out there in as many weeks. Grossman playing decent and that could be a plus....like fading DEN off a MNF win especially when they allowed 28 1st downs and 400+ yards.......
Looking at the early starts the UNDERDOGS really stand out .
Buffalo Bills +8 :
Doesn't this spread look quite big ? I think I am in the minority of people who believed that last Sunday Buffalo had no shot in that game. For someone who hates to lay road chalk I didn't waiver at the -10 for the 1st Half. The Bills are a bend don't break type team in every sense. Facing a team NE who is loaded with offensive firepower and backed with a stud defense was a task they could not overcome. If you referenced the Dallas game there is one huge difference between Dallas and NE. That is NE NEVER EVER seems to beat itself. They don't make unforced errors. Why did Buffalo play Dallas tight and all you have to do is look at Tony Romo's play. The PATS are a well oil machined with a history of shutting down Lee Evans. How would Buffalo crack 14 points ??
Anyway that beating provides motivation for a 5-5 Buffalo team and creates negative public perception.
Lets remember that Jax has now lost Mike Peterson there self proclaimed defensive leader and possibly CB Rashean Mathis. This is addition to the loss of Marcus Stroud. Peterson loss puts another LB in his spot and puts a bench player in the other spot. Really creating 2 players in different positions then last week.
The Jags struggle vs the pass and flat out stop the run. Well the one thing Losman can do is throw deep balls to Lee Evans. If Mathis is OUT the advantage becomes even greater but still he figures to be less then 100%. Rivers looked like crap versus Indy then went for 300 yards vs Jax. So look for Buffalo to be able to put some points on the board here. Also note that Jags could be in look ahead mode with a game @ Indy the following week. This year Jags are 0-2 laying more then 7 and last year were 2-2 (0-2 as DD previous year). Not the greatest team laying big numbers sort of like how Carolina is. WHich is due to there history of being a solid defense who depends on running the ball.
Despite UNDER trends this seems like an OVER to me cause both defenses are overrated....something to consider could be the Bills team total...14 ??
Skins +3.5
Call me crazy but I don't see how TB in the eyes of oddsmakers is even or even slightly better then Wash? After all the Skins were -3 to Philly a few weeks ago , only +3 @ GB , -9 vs Zona and so on....now yes I will agree these were mostly bad lines I faded. They were off but not extremely off say with in 3 points of real value IMO.
Even with the Skins injuries I think this should be closer to -1.5 TB. After all Campbell has played TB as that was his 1st career start in 20-17 loss last year. The secondary is banged up but held up well outside of Springs performance in Dallas. Reportedly he just wasn't there mentally being in Dallas where his father is hospitalized among other things.
Outside of the Pats road game the Skins have been fairly solid in 4 road games and should have won in GB. Look at the QBs TB has defeated..Leftwich / Harrington , Warner , Kerry Collins and barely( actually lost to Quinn Gray ) , David Carr , Marc Bulger with bad ribs in a monsoon and Drew Brees early on as 5 pt home dogs.
Huge game for the 5-5 Skins and as maligned s the secondary is with injuries you have to take away one WR on TB and let Graham beat you..
Campbell has 5 TD vs 1 INT past 2 weeks and is spreading the ball around well. Thrash(still OUT) , McCardell , S.Moss , Randle El and Cooley all involved.
Rams +3.5
How can I not like a home dog playing a divisional game. First thing is the last meeting is way misleading. I believe Torry Holt dropped a pass that would have been a TD right after Sea's Burleson returned the 2nd H kickoff for a TD. They just fell apart after that. I wont knock the Rams for last week cause SF has been solid on defense nearly every week. Hasselback and Hackett don't look to be 100% and Alexander is still out. Rams are getting healthier each week and now Stussie returns. If not for Stephen Jackson re injuring himself in the CLE game they would be on a 3 game win streak.
Raiders +5 :
Lets see OAK's CBs are healthy again and they stink vs the run. Oh wait . LJ is OUT still and Holmes HAD TO retire! That leaves Kolby Smith with 10 carries and 17 yards as your featured back. Mix in the young Brodie Coyle and Dwayne Bowe and this is an awfully RAW offense.
People will get excited about the way the played INDY. Which was great but whats changed? They outplayed them and lost . Do they know how to win and can they kick FG's??? Serious questions to ask.
Culpepper found the deep touch again hooking up on some long plays. It's hard to believe but Oak has the better offense at this point and better kicker. To me the defenses are even but KC has home field but playing at Arrowhead is not such a big deal these days.....also look @ OAK schedule this may be the last winnable game for them.
Vikings +7.5
A game truly loaded with injuries. All world stud RB Peterson is almost definitely OUT . More intriguing to me is the fact Tony Richardson looks doubtful and that is quite the loss IMO. Also on defense Winfield figures not to play.
This would be more a play AGAINST NYG then on Minnesota. Sure they are a dome team in the cold but they won at CHI in 55 degree weather should be low 40s here. NYG will be w/o Ward and Jacobs at RB leaving Droughns who hasn't looked great in awhile. Plax has disappeared the past 4 games and to his actions are telling me his ankle is slowly getting worse if anything. Last 4 games he has no TDS and that's the way to beat Minny by throwing deep. NYG also lost Kiwaunka last week....
Texans +3.5
Now that HOUSTON is healthy offensively they to me are the equivalent of CLE. However I see a Browns team off 3 straight WARS and a defense continually losing bodies. They had the comeback versus Seattle in OT , the battle @ Pitt , followed by one of the luckiest wins in NFL history last week @ Balt. When Houston has had a healthy AJ and Schaub they have looked good. Just think this is the perfect situation where the lucky breaks catch up to them as the should have lost in STL a month ago as well.
The other games I don't see how we can look at Cincy or New Orleans. Tenny might have haynesworth back and he really seems to be the key to the defense. Cincy has banged WRs in CJ , Housmanzadeh and G.Holt. That's not a good sign. Tenny is definitely the better team if you focus on the fact that Cincy has just 3 wins vs Balt twice and NYJ and were smoked by Arizona !!! With the Saints Reggie Bush isn't looked so good health wise. The fact that Testaverde is probably OUT doesn't help BUT CAROLINA won in NO with Carr and Moore already. Some how the Panthers offense actually showed some life last week. The defense hasn't been that bad and if the offense would just protect the ball it would help the Panther defense out. Which by the way Caroina still looking for HOME WIN #1 and this looks like a great spot...so lean CAR and even Ten slightly
Later ....
49ers +10.5
The Niner offense is a concern but I think Dilfer is progressing and they almost pulled one out last week. Who is Zona to lay 10 points to anyone?? Sure if they limit SF to 10 or less points they can cover but I think SF could suprise. Some of which is due to Warner's propensity to fumble and make negative plays.
Last 7 meetings Zona 4-3 with 3 FG losses so usually competitive games.
Ravens @ SD
Tough game because BALT could show up flat here and if there defense isnt up to par then it could be ugly. We know Balt lost Pryce again and there CB situation is question mark. Heap and Williams appear OUT again. I think Boller gives them a much better chance of competing but he is mistake prone.
SD defense will make it hard on McGahee and leave it to Boller. Huge game for SD
Bears -1
Right now I cant be excited about Den play past 2 weeks. It has been better but I dont think they are better then Chi. The Bears I thought played well in Sea considering it was there second trip out there in as many weeks. Grossman playing decent and that could be a plus....like fading DEN off a MNF win especially when they allowed 28 1st downs and 400+ yards.......
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
NCAAF :
Akron travels to Miami - Ohio. Looking at this line can't see why Miami-Ohio is such big favs. Last game they couldnt cover -6.5 versus Buffalo who is a shade worse then Akron( despite defeating Akron). Akron has had struggles on the road scoring and there defense has been fairly poor. Not a good sign. On the other hand what has Miami Ohio done at home ? Sneak by Syracuse 17-14 blowout a bad Bowling Green team that they were actually home dogs versus , hang on vs Buffalo due to some quick , long TDs? Besides there poor road play what scares me about Miami Ohio is this is there 3rd game in 2 weeks and second game since Miami played there last. At home Miami has actually stopped the run 2.8 YPC which means the passing duo( QB and stud WR) must get it done @ Akron . Since I should have trusted my 'capping' yesterday and played ball State cause the line was way short opened -5.5 should have been at least -8.5 ...today I think we should have seen something like -5 and we opened at -9....now 7.5.....
NBA:
Indiana @ Wash : Last game Arenas seemed to focus on getting his teammates involved rather then try and dominant when he doesnt feel right. That 's a good sign and really why Deshawn Stevenson doesnt get an expanded role in the offense I'll never know. Since Ike Diogu has gone down INDY has looked like carp and gone 0-4 , nmere coicidence ?? Since the opener Indy has returned Murphy and S.Williams. Just like the opener we should see a TON of FT attempts and 3 PT attempts. It's hard to say but playing on REST right now could be huge for WASH. They had rest @ NJ and came out on fire and played well @ ATL . Now Boston is a world beater right now and despite some rest it was off an OT opener. Would have expected -4.5 here so based on a fat line I have to lean Indy but think WASH wins.
Char @ AtL: The Bobcats knocked down some jumpers last night and smoked Miami. Here we have two teams who tend to get low 70 something shots per game and about low 20 Ft attempts. So expecting 94-88 type game....1st H Under and Under 188....however what I am thinking is Charlotte finally got the offense going last night and it may carry over....thats holding me back..
NJ @ Boston : Like Bostons defense to date but there offense sputtered some last nite. Real low total but I dont think NJ cracks 85 here and not sure Bos covers...
Seattle @ Miami : Could be real interesting if Swift and Kurt Thomas are OUT . That would leave COllison at center to guard SHAQ...Ridinour also gametime decision putting West or Watson at the point. SEA has depth but would need alot from Durant , Green and Wally Z here....Have to think after yesterdat that even Miami gets a 100 pts here so thinking over but cant lay -6 with this team no matter how bad Seattle looked yesterday...
Memphis @ Milw: On one hand Mem was a big home dog at home vs Houston last night and played hard to pull out the upset. I hate when you switch venues( home to road) and have basically the same number ....I do think we could be giving MILW to much credit ofr there drubbings at home as DOGGIES....Thinking Over 206 here as well . Only concern is low scoring outputs from Tor and Chi in MILW...but MILW should score alot here...
Philly @ NO : Hornets LUCKED Out in NJ and now play 7th game in 9 days all in different venues....such a tough spot (again) . Do they take Philly lightily here? Not sure I am ready to lay 9 points here...
Sac @ Minny : Kings get back Artest which is huge defensively and should be big offensively but you never know. DEFENSE tends to be a given. Minny could be without Greg Buckner and Craig Smith but SEA is waiting on Kenny Thomas and Brad Miller as well. Depends onhow the INJURIES shake out but thinking UNDER ...
Lakers @ Houston : LA struggled in SA and Houston is a notch below the Spurs. If not for HOU playing 3rd in 4 days I would have been on the home squad. Remember opening night ? Okay Odom is back but people were running to lay 3,4,5,6 points with HOU @ LAL!!! If not for a miracle to 2 minute run to end it the Lakers had trailed by DDs for the most part......hate LAL UNDERS but looking at that here.
Por @ Den : The Nuggets are smoking HOT winning 3 straight blowouts. However Portalnd isnt far behind scrapping out wins vs Dallas and Det. Think DEN rolls here ..
NYK @LAC : Injury shuffle ...Mobley is DOUBTFUL , Randolph is DOUBTFUL , QRichardson is ?? , Marbury appears to be playing , M.Collins is probable , Balkman is questionable ....lots of talent on the sidelines....expecting Knicks to play hard and keep it close if not WIN SU and think its played in the 90s so UNDER
Det @ GSW : Rough spot for DET who hasnt looked especially good. GSW playing better losing tough ones to Cle and Dallas. The GSW bench is a concrn but DET also got banged up last night ..have to take this home dog off so much rest vs a veteran DET team who could be flat here..1st H over cause GSW lack of bench and fatigue on both sides scares me ....
Thinking ( not plays ):
GSW +3 -120 and ML
NYK +8 and ML(value)
Den -10
Houston -6.5 ( 3rd in 4 days a concern)
Totals :
1st H Over GSW ( long rest scares me for GSW in some ways)
Under LAC 198
Under 198.5 Houston
Under 193 Minnesota ( Injuries??)
Over 206 Memphis
Over 191 Miami or team over Miami
Under 182 Boston
Under 187.5 Atlanta
Akron travels to Miami - Ohio. Looking at this line can't see why Miami-Ohio is such big favs. Last game they couldnt cover -6.5 versus Buffalo who is a shade worse then Akron( despite defeating Akron). Akron has had struggles on the road scoring and there defense has been fairly poor. Not a good sign. On the other hand what has Miami Ohio done at home ? Sneak by Syracuse 17-14 blowout a bad Bowling Green team that they were actually home dogs versus , hang on vs Buffalo due to some quick , long TDs? Besides there poor road play what scares me about Miami Ohio is this is there 3rd game in 2 weeks and second game since Miami played there last. At home Miami has actually stopped the run 2.8 YPC which means the passing duo( QB and stud WR) must get it done @ Akron . Since I should have trusted my 'capping' yesterday and played ball State cause the line was way short opened -5.5 should have been at least -8.5 ...today I think we should have seen something like -5 and we opened at -9....now 7.5.....
NBA:
Indiana @ Wash : Last game Arenas seemed to focus on getting his teammates involved rather then try and dominant when he doesnt feel right. That 's a good sign and really why Deshawn Stevenson doesnt get an expanded role in the offense I'll never know. Since Ike Diogu has gone down INDY has looked like carp and gone 0-4 , nmere coicidence ?? Since the opener Indy has returned Murphy and S.Williams. Just like the opener we should see a TON of FT attempts and 3 PT attempts. It's hard to say but playing on REST right now could be huge for WASH. They had rest @ NJ and came out on fire and played well @ ATL . Now Boston is a world beater right now and despite some rest it was off an OT opener. Would have expected -4.5 here so based on a fat line I have to lean Indy but think WASH wins.
Char @ AtL: The Bobcats knocked down some jumpers last night and smoked Miami. Here we have two teams who tend to get low 70 something shots per game and about low 20 Ft attempts. So expecting 94-88 type game....1st H Under and Under 188....however what I am thinking is Charlotte finally got the offense going last night and it may carry over....thats holding me back..
NJ @ Boston : Like Bostons defense to date but there offense sputtered some last nite. Real low total but I dont think NJ cracks 85 here and not sure Bos covers...
Seattle @ Miami : Could be real interesting if Swift and Kurt Thomas are OUT . That would leave COllison at center to guard SHAQ...Ridinour also gametime decision putting West or Watson at the point. SEA has depth but would need alot from Durant , Green and Wally Z here....Have to think after yesterdat that even Miami gets a 100 pts here so thinking over but cant lay -6 with this team no matter how bad Seattle looked yesterday...
Memphis @ Milw: On one hand Mem was a big home dog at home vs Houston last night and played hard to pull out the upset. I hate when you switch venues( home to road) and have basically the same number ....I do think we could be giving MILW to much credit ofr there drubbings at home as DOGGIES....Thinking Over 206 here as well . Only concern is low scoring outputs from Tor and Chi in MILW...but MILW should score alot here...
Philly @ NO : Hornets LUCKED Out in NJ and now play 7th game in 9 days all in different venues....such a tough spot (again) . Do they take Philly lightily here? Not sure I am ready to lay 9 points here...
Sac @ Minny : Kings get back Artest which is huge defensively and should be big offensively but you never know. DEFENSE tends to be a given. Minny could be without Greg Buckner and Craig Smith but SEA is waiting on Kenny Thomas and Brad Miller as well. Depends onhow the INJURIES shake out but thinking UNDER ...
Lakers @ Houston : LA struggled in SA and Houston is a notch below the Spurs. If not for HOU playing 3rd in 4 days I would have been on the home squad. Remember opening night ? Okay Odom is back but people were running to lay 3,4,5,6 points with HOU @ LAL!!! If not for a miracle to 2 minute run to end it the Lakers had trailed by DDs for the most part......hate LAL UNDERS but looking at that here.
Por @ Den : The Nuggets are smoking HOT winning 3 straight blowouts. However Portalnd isnt far behind scrapping out wins vs Dallas and Det. Think DEN rolls here ..
NYK @LAC : Injury shuffle ...Mobley is DOUBTFUL , Randolph is DOUBTFUL , QRichardson is ?? , Marbury appears to be playing , M.Collins is probable , Balkman is questionable ....lots of talent on the sidelines....expecting Knicks to play hard and keep it close if not WIN SU and think its played in the 90s so UNDER
Det @ GSW : Rough spot for DET who hasnt looked especially good. GSW playing better losing tough ones to Cle and Dallas. The GSW bench is a concrn but DET also got banged up last night ..have to take this home dog off so much rest vs a veteran DET team who could be flat here..1st H over cause GSW lack of bench and fatigue on both sides scares me ....
Thinking ( not plays ):
GSW +3 -120 and ML
NYK +8 and ML(value)
Den -10
Houston -6.5 ( 3rd in 4 days a concern)
Totals :
1st H Over GSW ( long rest scares me for GSW in some ways)
Under LAC 198
Under 198.5 Houston
Under 193 Minnesota ( Injuries??)
Over 206 Memphis
Over 191 Miami or team over Miami
Under 182 Boston
Under 187.5 Atlanta
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
NBA :
Thoughts are :
Orl 1st H and Under then Seattle 2nd H and Over
Ind +7 ( 1st H over then 2nd H Under)
Houston +7 -120 and Over 200 -120
Dallas -7 1st H and Under 97 , Under 191
Lakers +8 and Under 99 1st H
(thinking about the late ones still)
Obviously the 7 pm starts are under way so some of my thoughts arent helpful . They are however followed up by 2nd H thoughts which might be. The italics are the ones I played so far.
So far no CBB...
NHL :
Fla +150
Tor -120 also Over 6
CFB
Toledo ML +250
Over 71
GL
Thoughts are :
Orl 1st H and Under then Seattle 2nd H and Over
Ind +7 ( 1st H over then 2nd H Under)
Houston +7 -120 and Over 200 -120
Dallas -7 1st H and Under 97 , Under 191
Lakers +8 and Under 99 1st H
(thinking about the late ones still)
Obviously the 7 pm starts are under way so some of my thoughts arent helpful . They are however followed up by 2nd H thoughts which might be. The italics are the ones I played so far.
So far no CBB...
NHL :
Fla +150
Tor -120 also Over 6
CFB
Toledo ML +250
Over 71
GL
Looking at this game in the MAC ....
Toledo is a team you will probably have to breakdown rather then take at face value. They started the season with Clint Cochran as there QB but that didnt last long. They lost at home to Purdue in the opener and traveled to CMU. They lost a shootout at CMU BUT Soph Aaron Opelt known more as a runner wound up 25/41 334yds and 2 TDs(9c 17 yds TD). They lost @ Kansas then won a squeaker at home to Iowa State. The thing about the out of conference teams they played is there defenses were not that bad . Ball State faced Nebraska and Navy early on who are absolutely awful( disgrace may be better phrasing) on defense. Recently they did face Illinois and Indiana and guess what they didn't score as much and after a slow start IU torched them. They did a nice job versus Illinois but remember they got a PICK 6 for 7 of there 17 points and Juice Williams didnt pass well that day.
Back to Toledo. They West Michigan game again MISLEADING. They were up 7-0 and about to go 14-0 when Opalt was picked in the end zone. Which in 5 starts vs MAC teams is his ONLY INT! In fact in the other 4 starts he has 9 TDs and 3 rushing TDS against no INTS. He also has been sacked just 3 times in his MAC starts and two were in the 1st game vs CMU. Now granted most of this was done at HOME so how heavy can we weigh this?? Back to the WMU game. The INT flipped momentum and fueled WMU. In the midst of there rally Opelt was injured midway through the 2nd Quarter and was done for the day. After restoring some momentum Parmalee fumbled the opening kick of the 2nd H and later Cochran in relief was injured. Seems like a day destined to NOT b Toledo's.
After the WMU game they used true Freshman DJ Lenahan for starts against Liberty and @ Buffalo. So lets be realistic how many teams will look good with a 3rd string true freshman and a poor defense ?? Not many. Opalt returned vs Ohio U and has led them to 3 straight wins. In the 4 completed MAC games his numbers are 1200yds 9TDS and 52 yds rushing and 3 TDs!! With no INTERCEPTIONS!
Looking at there 3 games on the road which where they supposed to win? The game @ CMU they were just switching QBs and wer only 3 pt dogs to a real solid CMU team who blasted Ball State. That line was way off at -12 considering the previous week they were only -14 to Buffalo! CMU is 5-0 in conference ! Huge difference in the teams.
Looking at Ball State they LOST at home to Miami Ohio and Ball State in conference. They beat West Kentucky and Buffalo at home nothing exciting. They squeaked by at West Michigan on a late TD and stomped EMU away. There claim to fame is there 4 out of conference games. The Neb game was also after the USC game so that has to play into NEB performance. They have shown they can hang around with teams who are weak defensively and Illini case inconsistent on offense. Toledo has not had the opportunity to show that due to injuries at QB.
My feeling is Ball State struggles vs the pass and will face a tough task with Parmalee and Collins running it . How will they stop Toledo's offense ?? How will Toledo slow Nate Davis ?? With only 9 sacks they dont pressure the QB at all. Even with the total soaring to 69 from 64 you have to like the OVER here. You have prolific offenses versus defenses who cant get off the field. With high totals its all about execution. If they dont give away points or settle for FGs deep inside the red zone we see at least 73 points IMO....if they do then 10 TDs is alot ! This is a huge game with both teams at 5-5 fighting for Bowl spots and Toledo has a nice history ON TV much of it probably at the Glass Bowl though. CMU vs MAC teams have scored 27 , 38 , 49 , 38 and only 13 in the opener.
Right now my problem is I think they may have opened this game SHORT at -5.5 . It now has been bought up to -7 though. Was thinking more like -8 .
My thoughts are OVER 69 ( expect at least 73 pts in this game)Always check weather with huge totals...
For a side I feel that if Ball State wins they do it by 10 + so if you like Toledo better to take the ML....
GL
Toledo is a team you will probably have to breakdown rather then take at face value. They started the season with Clint Cochran as there QB but that didnt last long. They lost at home to Purdue in the opener and traveled to CMU. They lost a shootout at CMU BUT Soph Aaron Opelt known more as a runner wound up 25/41 334yds and 2 TDs(9c 17 yds TD). They lost @ Kansas then won a squeaker at home to Iowa State. The thing about the out of conference teams they played is there defenses were not that bad . Ball State faced Nebraska and Navy early on who are absolutely awful( disgrace may be better phrasing) on defense. Recently they did face Illinois and Indiana and guess what they didn't score as much and after a slow start IU torched them. They did a nice job versus Illinois but remember they got a PICK 6 for 7 of there 17 points and Juice Williams didnt pass well that day.
Back to Toledo. They West Michigan game again MISLEADING. They were up 7-0 and about to go 14-0 when Opalt was picked in the end zone. Which in 5 starts vs MAC teams is his ONLY INT! In fact in the other 4 starts he has 9 TDs and 3 rushing TDS against no INTS. He also has been sacked just 3 times in his MAC starts and two were in the 1st game vs CMU. Now granted most of this was done at HOME so how heavy can we weigh this?? Back to the WMU game. The INT flipped momentum and fueled WMU. In the midst of there rally Opelt was injured midway through the 2nd Quarter and was done for the day. After restoring some momentum Parmalee fumbled the opening kick of the 2nd H and later Cochran in relief was injured. Seems like a day destined to NOT b Toledo's.
After the WMU game they used true Freshman DJ Lenahan for starts against Liberty and @ Buffalo. So lets be realistic how many teams will look good with a 3rd string true freshman and a poor defense ?? Not many. Opalt returned vs Ohio U and has led them to 3 straight wins. In the 4 completed MAC games his numbers are 1200yds 9TDS and 52 yds rushing and 3 TDs!! With no INTERCEPTIONS!
Looking at there 3 games on the road which where they supposed to win? The game @ CMU they were just switching QBs and wer only 3 pt dogs to a real solid CMU team who blasted Ball State. That line was way off at -12 considering the previous week they were only -14 to Buffalo! CMU is 5-0 in conference ! Huge difference in the teams.
Looking at Ball State they LOST at home to Miami Ohio and Ball State in conference. They beat West Kentucky and Buffalo at home nothing exciting. They squeaked by at West Michigan on a late TD and stomped EMU away. There claim to fame is there 4 out of conference games. The Neb game was also after the USC game so that has to play into NEB performance. They have shown they can hang around with teams who are weak defensively and Illini case inconsistent on offense. Toledo has not had the opportunity to show that due to injuries at QB.
My feeling is Ball State struggles vs the pass and will face a tough task with Parmalee and Collins running it . How will they stop Toledo's offense ?? How will Toledo slow Nate Davis ?? With only 9 sacks they dont pressure the QB at all. Even with the total soaring to 69 from 64 you have to like the OVER here. You have prolific offenses versus defenses who cant get off the field. With high totals its all about execution. If they dont give away points or settle for FGs deep inside the red zone we see at least 73 points IMO....if they do then 10 TDs is alot ! This is a huge game with both teams at 5-5 fighting for Bowl spots and Toledo has a nice history ON TV much of it probably at the Glass Bowl though. CMU vs MAC teams have scored 27 , 38 , 49 , 38 and only 13 in the opener.
Right now my problem is I think they may have opened this game SHORT at -5.5 . It now has been bought up to -7 though. Was thinking more like -8 .
My thoughts are OVER 69 ( expect at least 73 pts in this game)Always check weather with huge totals...
For a side I feel that if Ball State wins they do it by 10 + so if you like Toledo better to take the ML....
GL
Monday, November 12, 2007
NFL
The key to deciphering this game appears to be in the weather report. Looks like heavy rain producing sloppy conditions and the possibility of high wind gusts that would hurt the passing game and kicks ( whether kickoffs , punts or FG's). Side not e Coach Nolan 's father passed away and that may give the team further incdentive to win here. On top of there season being on the line.
If Seattle is unable to pass due to the weather and Frank Gore is healthy I would think SF +9 or +10 is very inviting. Gore tore up the Hawks last year and was solid in the 1st meeting this season. Problem with the 1st meeting was it became a real easy game when Smith went out cause Dilfer is a sitting duck back there. Where A.Smith has some mobility. They traveled to ATL w/o Gore and almost beat the Falcons. Which is not particularily impressive except it shows they are still playing hard and can sneak up on a team . Seattle will be w/o Alexander , Pollard and Branch which I think hampers there big play ability even further. On defense Hill and Kearney are questionable.
There is just not much to talk about here....if the weather is as bad as reported I would rather take a 1st H under rather then a game under. As well as SF 1st H +6....
The key to deciphering this game appears to be in the weather report. Looks like heavy rain producing sloppy conditions and the possibility of high wind gusts that would hurt the passing game and kicks ( whether kickoffs , punts or FG's). Side not e Coach Nolan 's father passed away and that may give the team further incdentive to win here. On top of there season being on the line.
If Seattle is unable to pass due to the weather and Frank Gore is healthy I would think SF +9 or +10 is very inviting. Gore tore up the Hawks last year and was solid in the 1st meeting this season. Problem with the 1st meeting was it became a real easy game when Smith went out cause Dilfer is a sitting duck back there. Where A.Smith has some mobility. They traveled to ATL w/o Gore and almost beat the Falcons. Which is not particularily impressive except it shows they are still playing hard and can sneak up on a team . Seattle will be w/o Alexander , Pollard and Branch which I think hampers there big play ability even further. On defense Hill and Kearney are questionable.
There is just not much to talk about here....if the weather is as bad as reported I would rather take a 1st H under rather then a game under. As well as SF 1st H +6....
MONDAY NBA Thoughts
Hornets @ NJN :
It's seems fairly obvious that Vince Carter will NOT be playing tonight. The real issue for me is this..this will be the Hornets 5th game in 7 days , a Back 2 Back spot and they started by traveling WEST , then returned home and went NorthEast ! Honestly , I thought that yesterday would be a problem spot for them in Philly since the Sixers had fought hard at home vs Tor , NJN and Charlotte while defeating the misera-BULLS in Chicago. Clearly I was mistaken. Though Philly came out strong but faded when the second unit hit the floor and could not score in the 2nd quarter while NO reigned threes! What was more relevant probably was the fact they were off a 2 game losing streak and if they played poorly would have posible lost 4 straight with this game. Looking at the schedule NO has won nice games @ denver and @ LAL but those teams are inconsistent and would not context them as high quality wins . After that they beat Port and Sac at home both teams who will win few road games , lost @ Portland in a tough travel spot and lost at home vs SA. Then they beat up on the offensively challenged Sixers.
You can bet that NJ will look to bounce back here for 3 reasons. First is they billed themselves as a TRIO (Carter , Kidd , RJ) just like the media has Boston (KG , Pierce and "Jesus"). I believe there EGOS were bruised in that loss. Second is all good teams like to step it up when a STAR player is OUT. This being his forst absence provides a great opportunity for NJ to rise to the occasion. Third is NO being a quality team defeating them adds some luster to there W/L rap sheet. It's incentive to prove themselves even further and NJ has lost by once past few years vs NO. When both RJ and Kristic were out but Carter did go off that night 46!
Situational speaking I think it all points to NJ as they have remained HOME really for the entire season except a quick ride down to Philly. I think we can agree Vince Carter had struggled to date espite a good showing vs Boston. He seems willing to take alot of jumpers and threes instead of attacking the rim. Antoine Wright has looked solid in limited minutes. Sean Williams opened some eyes versus Boston . While they havent shown it NJ has upgraded the bench and Boston Nachbar should benefit in increased minutes as well. Last night you could have had an 191 UNDER in Philly , so here 185 seems pretty tight. Possible 1st H under and 2nd H over .?
CLE @ DEN
Real interesting matchup : Melo vs Lebron , Cavs winding down a long west coast swing playing 5th in 7 days BUT Nuggs return home after an East Coast swing also playing 5th in 7 days! Denver returns home after two good performances to close the trip after a lackluster start in NYK and Boston. While Cle 3-2 on the trip lost at the buzzer in Utah and folded late in Phoenix. All in all a fairly solid trip.
I think you could argue alot of things here. First that Cle is tired here. Well every game on the trip has been tough and down to the wire but they still come out the next game w/o looking drained. Interesting was Big Z playing a season high in minutes and LeBron a season low. Seems like smart coaching to me if it was planned( King James did have foul trouble). You figure the BIG guy is sort of limited here with so much running up and down the court while you would want LeBron fresher. On the other hand maybe Z feels great cause he sure is playing alot more minutes then he has past few years..right now about 5 or 6 more on avg per game.
You would think DEN carries the momentum over from there 25 pt comeback @ Indiana but it could leave them drained. That was a 4th in 5th spot for them and both they and Pho shined in that spot as small road chalk on Saturday. Interesting to see how DEN holds up cause Nene and Atkins are OUT for awhile now. Putting some pressure on Kleiza , Diawara , Kenyon Martin returning from injury playing about 20 minutes per , JR Smith to show more consistency .
The Cavs BENCH has been scary ! HUGE UNDER THE RADAR INJURY was Sasha Pavlovic leaving early yesterday and not returning ! That leaves Devin Brown (playing real well) , Damon Jones and Ira Newble off the bench if he cant go.
This is also the highest total bewteen these two teams. With Hughes back they tend to play games in the 90's. Denver has actually played some defense lately. really interested in Pavlovic's injury status. This could get ugly...they havent had a correct line on a CLE game all trip....-6 @ Sac after +9 @ Utah , PK @ LAC w/o Mobley?? I owuld have guess more like 4.5 to 5.5 here but who knows....
Sac @ Utah :
I think the Kings are going to have issues on the road till they get Artest and Bibby back. They played fairly well at home with comeback wins vs Minny and Seattle again two teams who simply wont win many road games. Offense will be a challenge if you contain Kevin Martin. I would expect 88-94 points here for Sac. With how Utah looked vs Memphis they could wax Sac here especially since Ron Artest is back on WED. Basically looking at the UNDER 206 , Kings team UNDER , 1st H Utah ...I could be mistaken but on the road Sac looks overmatched....nice work by Salmons and garcia so far but Miller is struggling and the rest of the guys are limited offensively though Beno Udrih may help the second unit.
Hornets @ NJN :
It's seems fairly obvious that Vince Carter will NOT be playing tonight. The real issue for me is this..this will be the Hornets 5th game in 7 days , a Back 2 Back spot and they started by traveling WEST , then returned home and went NorthEast ! Honestly , I thought that yesterday would be a problem spot for them in Philly since the Sixers had fought hard at home vs Tor , NJN and Charlotte while defeating the misera-BULLS in Chicago. Clearly I was mistaken. Though Philly came out strong but faded when the second unit hit the floor and could not score in the 2nd quarter while NO reigned threes! What was more relevant probably was the fact they were off a 2 game losing streak and if they played poorly would have posible lost 4 straight with this game. Looking at the schedule NO has won nice games @ denver and @ LAL but those teams are inconsistent and would not context them as high quality wins . After that they beat Port and Sac at home both teams who will win few road games , lost @ Portland in a tough travel spot and lost at home vs SA. Then they beat up on the offensively challenged Sixers.
You can bet that NJ will look to bounce back here for 3 reasons. First is they billed themselves as a TRIO (Carter , Kidd , RJ) just like the media has Boston (KG , Pierce and "Jesus"). I believe there EGOS were bruised in that loss. Second is all good teams like to step it up when a STAR player is OUT. This being his forst absence provides a great opportunity for NJ to rise to the occasion. Third is NO being a quality team defeating them adds some luster to there W/L rap sheet. It's incentive to prove themselves even further and NJ has lost by once past few years vs NO. When both RJ and Kristic were out but Carter did go off that night 46!
Situational speaking I think it all points to NJ as they have remained HOME really for the entire season except a quick ride down to Philly. I think we can agree Vince Carter had struggled to date espite a good showing vs Boston. He seems willing to take alot of jumpers and threes instead of attacking the rim. Antoine Wright has looked solid in limited minutes. Sean Williams opened some eyes versus Boston . While they havent shown it NJ has upgraded the bench and Boston Nachbar should benefit in increased minutes as well. Last night you could have had an 191 UNDER in Philly , so here 185 seems pretty tight. Possible 1st H under and 2nd H over .?
CLE @ DEN
Real interesting matchup : Melo vs Lebron , Cavs winding down a long west coast swing playing 5th in 7 days BUT Nuggs return home after an East Coast swing also playing 5th in 7 days! Denver returns home after two good performances to close the trip after a lackluster start in NYK and Boston. While Cle 3-2 on the trip lost at the buzzer in Utah and folded late in Phoenix. All in all a fairly solid trip.
I think you could argue alot of things here. First that Cle is tired here. Well every game on the trip has been tough and down to the wire but they still come out the next game w/o looking drained. Interesting was Big Z playing a season high in minutes and LeBron a season low. Seems like smart coaching to me if it was planned( King James did have foul trouble). You figure the BIG guy is sort of limited here with so much running up and down the court while you would want LeBron fresher. On the other hand maybe Z feels great cause he sure is playing alot more minutes then he has past few years..right now about 5 or 6 more on avg per game.
You would think DEN carries the momentum over from there 25 pt comeback @ Indiana but it could leave them drained. That was a 4th in 5th spot for them and both they and Pho shined in that spot as small road chalk on Saturday. Interesting to see how DEN holds up cause Nene and Atkins are OUT for awhile now. Putting some pressure on Kleiza , Diawara , Kenyon Martin returning from injury playing about 20 minutes per , JR Smith to show more consistency .
The Cavs BENCH has been scary ! HUGE UNDER THE RADAR INJURY was Sasha Pavlovic leaving early yesterday and not returning ! That leaves Devin Brown (playing real well) , Damon Jones and Ira Newble off the bench if he cant go.
This is also the highest total bewteen these two teams. With Hughes back they tend to play games in the 90's. Denver has actually played some defense lately. really interested in Pavlovic's injury status. This could get ugly...they havent had a correct line on a CLE game all trip....-6 @ Sac after +9 @ Utah , PK @ LAC w/o Mobley?? I owuld have guess more like 4.5 to 5.5 here but who knows....
Sac @ Utah :
I think the Kings are going to have issues on the road till they get Artest and Bibby back. They played fairly well at home with comeback wins vs Minny and Seattle again two teams who simply wont win many road games. Offense will be a challenge if you contain Kevin Martin. I would expect 88-94 points here for Sac. With how Utah looked vs Memphis they could wax Sac here especially since Ron Artest is back on WED. Basically looking at the UNDER 206 , Kings team UNDER , 1st H Utah ...I could be mistaken but on the road Sac looks overmatched....nice work by Salmons and garcia so far but Miller is struggling and the rest of the guys are limited offensively though Beno Udrih may help the second unit.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
NBA :
Sixers +3 or ML
I see this as a bad spot ofr NO. The Hornets had a 3 game West Coast swing then came home to play SA but now back to the road @ Philly! All while has sat home and battled NJ and Tor in narrow defeats and spanked Char. Philly plays hard and plays defense.....
Also went Ov 186 Charlotte cause I think Rockets will score at will...
Sixers +3 or ML
I see this as a bad spot ofr NO. The Hornets had a 3 game West Coast swing then came home to play SA but now back to the road @ Philly! All while has sat home and battled NJ and Tor in narrow defeats and spanked Char. Philly plays hard and plays defense.....
Also went Ov 186 Charlotte cause I think Rockets will score at will...
NFL Sunday :
Phins +3 -120 or +125 ML:
Bills walk into this game favored for the 1st time all season. While Miami has had a week off to start over. Yes , start over. Thats what Jason Taylor was talking about. How this BYE came at the right time to put the 1st Half of the season behind them. He said something to the effect no one remembers the Phins 2 years ago starting 3-7 cause they ended 6-0 ! What I am getting expect a great effort to get that 1st WIN. The D gets Vonnie Holliday back .
Buffalo has 3 players QUESTIONABLE in J.Reed @ WR , A.Schoebel @ DE , and DiGiorgio @ LB. Having these guys at less then 100% is huge and if any miss that further hurts a depleted team. Bills owned the 4th quarter last week so that final is misleading in some ways( trailed with 6 to play and still settling for FGS with 4. ).
Game should be a PKem. Bills have shown the ability to hang with teams at home. Outside of watching NJY self destruct a few backs there road skills have be untested. If Miami doesnt beat themselves they will win.
Steelers -9.5 and Under 47:
Cleveland let it all hang out last week vs Seattle. They have some OL issues with McKinney OUT and Steinbach questionable. They havent had much of a ground game this season and they probably wont be able to run on Pitt. That means they will have to throw. While DA has been excellent this year its still PITT. Look at the PITT defense at home and go back to my Monday post. Expect 14-17 Browns points here. Cle cant stop the run at all and expect Willie Parker to open it up for Big Ben. Think Pitt gets 27-28 here as they play keep away from DA and the Browns passing attack.
Bottomline is people still dont believe in PITT!!!!
Jags +5 ( ML as well)
Haynesworth OUT
Tenny is built on defense and running the ball. Well Jax can stop the run but not the pass. So thats a huge plus. Even with Gray at QB this game is a coin flip and Jags have revenge after letting one slip away at home vs Tenny. For me more about discrediting the favorite then playing the dog...Line should be -1.5 with Garrard..look at who TEnny has beat at home Car , Atl and Oakland recently!!!
Eagles +3 or ML
Skins keeping winning by the skin of there teeth. This is the same EAGLE team that went to Minny and won 2 weeks ago. Dallas is very good and high powered offense exactly what WASH is not ! The Eagles are tough against the run and this is a must win game for them. Philly can wing it and Skins corners are banged up.
Rams +10.5 and 46 :
Key Saints defenders Grant and Young OUT! Which tells me that NO is taking this game lightily . Second it takes away alot of pressure on the Rams OL. The rams looked fine with Stephen Jackson in there two weeks ago but it was two failed 4th and 1 with Leonard that cost the game. These offense will SCORE!
Lean to :
ATL +3.5 due to the fact ATL has played better away and so has Carolina. Fortunately for ATL they are AWAY this week. Should be a DEFENSIVE battle. Panthers aredesperate for a win but Matt Moore ..?? I think he is okay but tough to envision him covering a spread ...
KC -3 cause DEN is a mess. Maybe they bounce back but Cutler and Henry are banged up. The defense with Lynch OUT is very bad. KC might not have LJ but it has a defense at least and a huge home field bias....probably OVER here...
GB-5.5 : line is sinking but think GB is heating up and Vikes outdoors?? If miiny cant run can Bollinger help them out ?? Favre vs a weak secondary whose best player has a bad hammy.....
Phins +3 -120 or +125 ML:
Bills walk into this game favored for the 1st time all season. While Miami has had a week off to start over. Yes , start over. Thats what Jason Taylor was talking about. How this BYE came at the right time to put the 1st Half of the season behind them. He said something to the effect no one remembers the Phins 2 years ago starting 3-7 cause they ended 6-0 ! What I am getting expect a great effort to get that 1st WIN. The D gets Vonnie Holliday back .
Buffalo has 3 players QUESTIONABLE in J.Reed @ WR , A.Schoebel @ DE , and DiGiorgio @ LB. Having these guys at less then 100% is huge and if any miss that further hurts a depleted team. Bills owned the 4th quarter last week so that final is misleading in some ways( trailed with 6 to play and still settling for FGS with 4. ).
Game should be a PKem. Bills have shown the ability to hang with teams at home. Outside of watching NJY self destruct a few backs there road skills have be untested. If Miami doesnt beat themselves they will win.
Steelers -9.5 and Under 47:
Cleveland let it all hang out last week vs Seattle. They have some OL issues with McKinney OUT and Steinbach questionable. They havent had much of a ground game this season and they probably wont be able to run on Pitt. That means they will have to throw. While DA has been excellent this year its still PITT. Look at the PITT defense at home and go back to my Monday post. Expect 14-17 Browns points here. Cle cant stop the run at all and expect Willie Parker to open it up for Big Ben. Think Pitt gets 27-28 here as they play keep away from DA and the Browns passing attack.
Bottomline is people still dont believe in PITT!!!!
Jags +5 ( ML as well)
Haynesworth OUT
Tenny is built on defense and running the ball. Well Jax can stop the run but not the pass. So thats a huge plus. Even with Gray at QB this game is a coin flip and Jags have revenge after letting one slip away at home vs Tenny. For me more about discrediting the favorite then playing the dog...Line should be -1.5 with Garrard..look at who TEnny has beat at home Car , Atl and Oakland recently!!!
Eagles +3 or ML
Skins keeping winning by the skin of there teeth. This is the same EAGLE team that went to Minny and won 2 weeks ago. Dallas is very good and high powered offense exactly what WASH is not ! The Eagles are tough against the run and this is a must win game for them. Philly can wing it and Skins corners are banged up.
Rams +10.5 and 46 :
Key Saints defenders Grant and Young OUT! Which tells me that NO is taking this game lightily . Second it takes away alot of pressure on the Rams OL. The rams looked fine with Stephen Jackson in there two weeks ago but it was two failed 4th and 1 with Leonard that cost the game. These offense will SCORE!
Lean to :
ATL +3.5 due to the fact ATL has played better away and so has Carolina. Fortunately for ATL they are AWAY this week. Should be a DEFENSIVE battle. Panthers aredesperate for a win but Matt Moore ..?? I think he is okay but tough to envision him covering a spread ...
KC -3 cause DEN is a mess. Maybe they bounce back but Cutler and Henry are banged up. The defense with Lynch OUT is very bad. KC might not have LJ but it has a defense at least and a huge home field bias....probably OVER here...
GB-5.5 : line is sinking but think GB is heating up and Vikes outdoors?? If miiny cant run can Bollinger help them out ?? Favre vs a weak secondary whose best player has a bad hammy.....
Friday, November 09, 2007
NBA Comments :
Toronto -2 : This MAY be a rare occassion when the books opened this line wrong. The Sixers have battled in every game losing two games they had chances to win. WHile Tor has been FLAT since the OT loss at home to Boston. Since then getting bombed in Milw then the next night vs ORL.
Why was this line wrong? First Philly was only -4 vs Char with Felton out and +2.5 vs NJN. Now Tor already beat Philly at home laying -7 and smoked NJ at Continental Airlines catching 3 points...basically we know Tor is better then Philly and even better then NJ at this point so you would expect the Tor line to be similiar to that of the NJ @ Philly game. Philly is strong on the glass with Evans , Iggy and Dalembert. A ket to watch is Philly getting 30 Fts per while Tor only allows 20. Philly shooting %s arent very good at the moment and TOR is an offensive FUNK. To me that translates into an UNDER 188. Tor 95-90 ??
Char -1.5 : Hard to back CHAR after 2 disgusting performances. However with Ike Diougu and Daniels OUT , O'Neal , Williams and Murphy working themselves into game shape the damaged Cats have the edge at home. Felton SHOULD play but I am not certain. If he does might have to get involved in O195.
Hawks +8.5 / UND 193 : Really like A-T-L here. . Is Boston now better then DET cause they smoked Den and Wash at home , two teams who DONT play any defense?? Enter the athletic A-T-L Squad. They battled both NJ and DET on the road . UPSET Dallas and PHO at home . Losing late but leading nearly the enter way @ DET. Looks like another 95-90 game.
NYK : Tough spot for ORL 4th straight away winning the 1st three and having PHO tmrw at home (4th in 5 days). Like NY here but not crazy about it.....interested to see how both teams look matchuped on the floor. Thinking UNDER cause I had expected closer to 193 here rather then 201. Problem with that is getting NYK defensive effort out of my mind
Under 196 Suns : Miami is looking to slow the pace and 90 points seems like alot to ask. Suns offense hasnt clicked yet outside of Char turrning the ball over to much vs them. Look at prior meetings in Miami...unfortunately those totals were much higher...Think I owuld take the 8 but Miami can only contend for One half IMO....
Den -2.5 : Simply cause even playing 3rd in 4 days the Nuggets have shown flashes. Wash jumped out to a huge lead and faded rather quickly. They did manage to keep it a game late but that tough loss could wear on them here . The big three scored all the points and played 40+ minutes. Denver showed some life in the 2nd H after the embarrassing 1st H @ Boston. Arenas clearly is less then 100% .
Det -8 : Mobley is OUT , Knight is IN and Maggette & Patterson are gametime decisions. Piston starters did lay heavy minutes but they have a better bench then LAC. They also had 3 days off before yesterday and start a West Coast swing after this. DET won by 18 twice last season . Big game for DET IMO facing a 4-0 LAC team that is depleted. UND 192.5 for sure.....
Hornets +3.5 : Always like my Home dogs...had this at -2 but maybe the bad loss @ PORT inflates it.
Bucks +9 : Could be a flat spot for Houston after battles with Dallas and Houston. I am concerned cause HOU has played solid ball and MILW hasnt played well in its 2 road games...slight lean to the dog
Not sure about the later schedule though like the Kings .....
BOL
Toronto -2 : This MAY be a rare occassion when the books opened this line wrong. The Sixers have battled in every game losing two games they had chances to win. WHile Tor has been FLAT since the OT loss at home to Boston. Since then getting bombed in Milw then the next night vs ORL.
Why was this line wrong? First Philly was only -4 vs Char with Felton out and +2.5 vs NJN. Now Tor already beat Philly at home laying -7 and smoked NJ at Continental Airlines catching 3 points...basically we know Tor is better then Philly and even better then NJ at this point so you would expect the Tor line to be similiar to that of the NJ @ Philly game. Philly is strong on the glass with Evans , Iggy and Dalembert. A ket to watch is Philly getting 30 Fts per while Tor only allows 20. Philly shooting %s arent very good at the moment and TOR is an offensive FUNK. To me that translates into an UNDER 188. Tor 95-90 ??
Char -1.5 : Hard to back CHAR after 2 disgusting performances. However with Ike Diougu and Daniels OUT , O'Neal , Williams and Murphy working themselves into game shape the damaged Cats have the edge at home. Felton SHOULD play but I am not certain. If he does might have to get involved in O195.
Hawks +8.5 / UND 193 : Really like A-T-L here. . Is Boston now better then DET cause they smoked Den and Wash at home , two teams who DONT play any defense?? Enter the athletic A-T-L Squad. They battled both NJ and DET on the road . UPSET Dallas and PHO at home . Losing late but leading nearly the enter way @ DET. Looks like another 95-90 game.
NYK : Tough spot for ORL 4th straight away winning the 1st three and having PHO tmrw at home (4th in 5 days). Like NY here but not crazy about it.....interested to see how both teams look matchuped on the floor. Thinking UNDER cause I had expected closer to 193 here rather then 201. Problem with that is getting NYK defensive effort out of my mind
Under 196 Suns : Miami is looking to slow the pace and 90 points seems like alot to ask. Suns offense hasnt clicked yet outside of Char turrning the ball over to much vs them. Look at prior meetings in Miami...unfortunately those totals were much higher...Think I owuld take the 8 but Miami can only contend for One half IMO....
Den -2.5 : Simply cause even playing 3rd in 4 days the Nuggets have shown flashes. Wash jumped out to a huge lead and faded rather quickly. They did manage to keep it a game late but that tough loss could wear on them here . The big three scored all the points and played 40+ minutes. Denver showed some life in the 2nd H after the embarrassing 1st H @ Boston. Arenas clearly is less then 100% .
Det -8 : Mobley is OUT , Knight is IN and Maggette & Patterson are gametime decisions. Piston starters did lay heavy minutes but they have a better bench then LAC. They also had 3 days off before yesterday and start a West Coast swing after this. DET won by 18 twice last season . Big game for DET IMO facing a 4-0 LAC team that is depleted. UND 192.5 for sure.....
Hornets +3.5 : Always like my Home dogs...had this at -2 but maybe the bad loss @ PORT inflates it.
Bucks +9 : Could be a flat spot for Houston after battles with Dallas and Houston. I am concerned cause HOU has played solid ball and MILW hasnt played well in its 2 road games...slight lean to the dog
Not sure about the later schedule though like the Kings .....
BOL
Thursday, November 08, 2007
NBA:
Bulls :
Again we have a value play here. I think if Chicago didnt crap away 3 games ( NJN , Milw , and LAC) then you have somewhere around -3 here. Even with this 0-4 start this probably should be -1.5 CHI. First the Bulls went 3-1 reg season vs DET with a 2 pt loss. Same Bulls team really while DET flipped Webber for Hayes. Not literally or even position wise but in theory. Maxiell is getting more minutes but CHI pulss Forwards out there ass....
If Mobley was the key to LAC late run to close out CHI THEN Rip Hamilton should be someone Hinrich can physically handle.
DET impressive win was the B2B @ Orlando. They were okay versus a bad Miami team and when Rip returned they barely beat ATL. So DET isnt impressing me all that much. Chi has lost twice as BIG chalk at HOME to medicore Philly and LAC. That is shocking to some degree no matter what you think of the team. While playing ONLY 1 Half @ both Milw and NJN. They simply have not played 48 minutes of BB.
I think it will be a close game and due to that it makes the OVER 182 attractive rather then the UNDER. Late FTs could push this over the number. SO gonna watch the 1st H tempo to see if there is value.
Not sure about any NCAAF , other NBA or NHL yet...
Bulls :
Again we have a value play here. I think if Chicago didnt crap away 3 games ( NJN , Milw , and LAC) then you have somewhere around -3 here. Even with this 0-4 start this probably should be -1.5 CHI. First the Bulls went 3-1 reg season vs DET with a 2 pt loss. Same Bulls team really while DET flipped Webber for Hayes. Not literally or even position wise but in theory. Maxiell is getting more minutes but CHI pulss Forwards out there ass....
If Mobley was the key to LAC late run to close out CHI THEN Rip Hamilton should be someone Hinrich can physically handle.
DET impressive win was the B2B @ Orlando. They were okay versus a bad Miami team and when Rip returned they barely beat ATL. So DET isnt impressing me all that much. Chi has lost twice as BIG chalk at HOME to medicore Philly and LAC. That is shocking to some degree no matter what you think of the team. While playing ONLY 1 Half @ both Milw and NJN. They simply have not played 48 minutes of BB.
I think it will be a close game and due to that it makes the OVER 182 attractive rather then the UNDER. Late FTs could push this over the number. SO gonna watch the 1st H tempo to see if there is value.
Not sure about any NCAAF , other NBA or NHL yet...
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
Not really the Night I was looking for last night. I think I have discovered the longer I look at the games the worse my performance is. For me i think its better to just take a couple of hours and weed through the stuff later in the day then go through games over and over again. Plus alot of things just look good at the last moment. Plays I may lean to and something just stands out close to tip. Such as NJN -2 1st H....anyway...
Magic @ Raps :
-Tor 8-2 SU past 10 meetings & 9-1 ATS( 6-0 at home ATS last 6 series).
-ORL injuries : Nelson should return from concussion , Turkoglu listed but no report of injury , Reddick OUT. If Turkoglu was to sit out that woukd be a huge difference with Garrity taking his spot and thinning the bench further. Also meaning more Adonal Foyle which is more defense and alot less offense.
I did't really like TOR yesterday after losing a tough OT game against Boston. I suspected they could be hungover and it seems they were. Mitchell rested his starters with only Ford playing 20 minutes while ORL had 4 guys play 37 + minutes .
Would have liked to see a -3 here but I think its great bounce back spot for the RAPS. Last year you would have seen about -6 here. ORL picked up Lewis and lost some role players while Tor flipped MoPete for Kapono. Kapono has been awful on defense and you wonder how do they contain Rashard Lewis here , maybe use 6'6 Parker on him ?? TOR has so much more depth look at there 2nd unit who get valuable minutes yesterday!
Totals are tough right now. Orl has flipped between allowing 80 something and 100+ something pts in its games. Alternating Under , Over , Under , Over , tonite? Raps had played solid D till yesterday as even Philly needed fourth quarter garbage points to get to 97. They have allowed alot of threes but havent put opponents on the line much.
Char @ Philly :
Felton's status from ROTOWORLD ( great site):
The Charlotte Observer reports that Raymond Felton's MRI came back "A-OK" and that at least, he should be with some rest, with a heavy dose of anti-inflammatories.
Felton is still questionable for Wednesday's game against the Grizzlies, but as the Bobcats want to be cautious with their young star, expect him to be rested at least for tonight in favor of Jeff McInnis. Check back later for further results of his tests and his game status for tonight.
So lets assume he is OUT and McInnis is in that hurts there offense. What I witnessd last nite was scary to say the least on offense from them. Would think Andre Miller plays here.
-Home team is 9-1 SU(Char 7-3 ATS) and Philly 5-0 (3-2 ATS).
I tend to not like taking the fav when a STAR player is OUT. Especially in his initial absence. So while everything points to Philly I will wait till gametime to make a decision which will probably be PASS unless this runs up higher to which I might take the DOG (+5.5 +??)
Both teams can defend looks like an UNDER 1st H to me.....
Pho @ ATL :
Not crazy about this one. Hawks have played well and Suns looked good last nite. I was reminded how well PHO can be on the road vs the EAST last night. So w/o getting like 7 or 8 points its tough to envision the dog wiining SU. They caught Dallas in a good spot and held on to win earlier.
Despite previous high scoring meetings I prefer the UNDER. Suns benefitted from sloppy play of CHAR last nite to push the pace and get easy look after easy look. I would think looking at how ATL has played it wont be so easy here. Suns are talking about there defense and ATL is limited on how many shots they get...who is there scorer after Joe Johnson ?? Josh Smith ?
LAC @ INDY :
If you look at past history you wonder where the FUCK did 207 coime from? UNDER is 8-2 past 10 meetings with no totals really above 192! If you recall Jim O"Brien is looking to play uptempo basketball and the main reason Jermaine O'Neal sat out the opener was due to conditioning . We saw what LAC could do at home vs uptempo offenses..115 and 120. If you look at last nights game the bulls shot an awful 35 % and combined for 79 2nd H points to finish with 188 in the game.
Really bad spot for LAC here . Third game in 4 nights while INDY has been off since 11/03!!!! Molbey has ben excellent and said his aggressive attitude is back. Hinrich said the physical play was tough for him to overcome on end in regards to guarding him. I would assume since Dunleavy is playing the 2 spot he will guard Mobley...Dunleavy is 6'10! While LAC has played three of the worst NBA teams at the moment Indy will be there toughest test IMO....You would expect Indy to run them out of the GYM! Indy allowed 99 shots to Wash , 96 to Miami and while only 66 to mem the Grizz still had 111 points!!!!!! Why ....51 FT attempts and Wash had 42 FT attempts....Miami just is not good offensively....
DEN @ Boston :
Another HOME team of REST with MOMENTUM playing a team in a B2B and 3rd in 4 days.
Before you get overexcited about the OVER. Boston is talking more about DEFENSE then offense and by this I mean the players. Allowed 83 vs Wash and 78 in regulation @ Toronto! With Denver remember Kenyon Martin didnt play. The Knicks havent looked good defensively and the only way they could WIN was to outscore DEN. I dont think BOSTON will play or feel that way. For DEN the Minny and NO games could be telling. DEN needs to push the pace and crate easy looks cause they dont have many shooters besides Kleiza and JR Smith both who can be inconsistent. Tough spot for DEN but like the UNDER.....
Miami @ Spurs :
I have come to realize that right now Miami is bad especially on offense. With that I am not in a rush to lay 11 points with SA cause of the issues they have had in B2B over the years. Going to be interesting to see Ricky Davis here vs Bowen. What would make think Miami doesnt score 85 here with Spurs playing last night ? If Spurs do cover then 97 is needed and that puts on 182..Hard to see Miami being as bad as PORT or SAC though.
memphis @ Seattle :
Another matchup that just puzzles. Seattle playing 3rd in 4 days while Mem is off since 11/03!
Over the years the Grizzlies have struggled @ Seattle but last years meetings showed no signs of defense .. Not to mention Mem is healthy again with Gasol while Sea is in rebuilding mode and doesnt know how to win games yet.
I hate chalk but dont see how we should bite on SEA in situations where they have to WIN to cash. Also SEA has announced plans to move and this is there 1st Home game...not a great spot! I dont see any defense but not sure about the total yet .
Cle @ Utah :
I dont get this line! Utah has beaten GSW twice and lost to Houston and LAL. We know GS is bad and while not impressively the Cavs did beat them last night. Again CLE 3rd roadie 4 days though. Hughes is OUT probably which makes me think more offense. Cle has won 5 of the 6 in the series and lost by 1 pint past two years. I know CLE has regressed some especially without Varejo , Hughes and Marshall here....
Cant justify laying -10 with Utah since McGrady and Kobe have killed them so why not LeBron ? I think this total is kinda low though ..???
Hornets @ Blazers :
Again madness..last game 11/3 for PORT and NO 3rd road game in 4 days...
These teams already met with NO cleaning house vs PORT 113-93. One thing for sure is I recall alot of people high on PORT in that spot after the OPENER. They started with3 tough games @ SA , @ NO , and @ HOU. For the most part they held there own in those games. Why would people jump ship on PORT now at home if they thought they could hang in NO? ( by the way I liked NO there)
Not crazy about this matchup but thinking DOG / UND. Port would need to win a sloppy game IMO....
THOUGHTS :
Raps -4.5 ( Und 191 )
( Char +4 / UND 189)
(Und 208 / ATL +6)
Over 207.5 / Ind -6
Und 202 (Den +6)
(Heat 1st H / Over 181)
Memphis PK ( Over 218)
(Cavs +9.5 / UND 194 ??)
Und 202 Port (Port +3)
GL
Magic @ Raps :
-Tor 8-2 SU past 10 meetings & 9-1 ATS( 6-0 at home ATS last 6 series).
-ORL injuries : Nelson should return from concussion , Turkoglu listed but no report of injury , Reddick OUT. If Turkoglu was to sit out that woukd be a huge difference with Garrity taking his spot and thinning the bench further. Also meaning more Adonal Foyle which is more defense and alot less offense.
I did't really like TOR yesterday after losing a tough OT game against Boston. I suspected they could be hungover and it seems they were. Mitchell rested his starters with only Ford playing 20 minutes while ORL had 4 guys play 37 + minutes .
Would have liked to see a -3 here but I think its great bounce back spot for the RAPS. Last year you would have seen about -6 here. ORL picked up Lewis and lost some role players while Tor flipped MoPete for Kapono. Kapono has been awful on defense and you wonder how do they contain Rashard Lewis here , maybe use 6'6 Parker on him ?? TOR has so much more depth look at there 2nd unit who get valuable minutes yesterday!
Totals are tough right now. Orl has flipped between allowing 80 something and 100+ something pts in its games. Alternating Under , Over , Under , Over , tonite? Raps had played solid D till yesterday as even Philly needed fourth quarter garbage points to get to 97. They have allowed alot of threes but havent put opponents on the line much.
Char @ Philly :
Felton's status from ROTOWORLD ( great site):
The Charlotte Observer reports that Raymond Felton's MRI came back "A-OK" and that at least, he should be with some rest, with a heavy dose of anti-inflammatories.
Felton is still questionable for Wednesday's game against the Grizzlies, but as the Bobcats want to be cautious with their young star, expect him to be rested at least for tonight in favor of Jeff McInnis. Check back later for further results of his tests and his game status for tonight.
So lets assume he is OUT and McInnis is in that hurts there offense. What I witnessd last nite was scary to say the least on offense from them. Would think Andre Miller plays here.
-Home team is 9-1 SU(Char 7-3 ATS) and Philly 5-0 (3-2 ATS).
I tend to not like taking the fav when a STAR player is OUT. Especially in his initial absence. So while everything points to Philly I will wait till gametime to make a decision which will probably be PASS unless this runs up higher to which I might take the DOG (+5.5 +??)
Both teams can defend looks like an UNDER 1st H to me.....
Pho @ ATL :
Not crazy about this one. Hawks have played well and Suns looked good last nite. I was reminded how well PHO can be on the road vs the EAST last night. So w/o getting like 7 or 8 points its tough to envision the dog wiining SU. They caught Dallas in a good spot and held on to win earlier.
Despite previous high scoring meetings I prefer the UNDER. Suns benefitted from sloppy play of CHAR last nite to push the pace and get easy look after easy look. I would think looking at how ATL has played it wont be so easy here. Suns are talking about there defense and ATL is limited on how many shots they get...who is there scorer after Joe Johnson ?? Josh Smith ?
LAC @ INDY :
If you look at past history you wonder where the FUCK did 207 coime from? UNDER is 8-2 past 10 meetings with no totals really above 192! If you recall Jim O"Brien is looking to play uptempo basketball and the main reason Jermaine O'Neal sat out the opener was due to conditioning . We saw what LAC could do at home vs uptempo offenses..115 and 120. If you look at last nights game the bulls shot an awful 35 % and combined for 79 2nd H points to finish with 188 in the game.
Really bad spot for LAC here . Third game in 4 nights while INDY has been off since 11/03!!!! Molbey has ben excellent and said his aggressive attitude is back. Hinrich said the physical play was tough for him to overcome on end in regards to guarding him. I would assume since Dunleavy is playing the 2 spot he will guard Mobley...Dunleavy is 6'10! While LAC has played three of the worst NBA teams at the moment Indy will be there toughest test IMO....You would expect Indy to run them out of the GYM! Indy allowed 99 shots to Wash , 96 to Miami and while only 66 to mem the Grizz still had 111 points!!!!!! Why ....51 FT attempts and Wash had 42 FT attempts....Miami just is not good offensively....
DEN @ Boston :
Another HOME team of REST with MOMENTUM playing a team in a B2B and 3rd in 4 days.
Before you get overexcited about the OVER. Boston is talking more about DEFENSE then offense and by this I mean the players. Allowed 83 vs Wash and 78 in regulation @ Toronto! With Denver remember Kenyon Martin didnt play. The Knicks havent looked good defensively and the only way they could WIN was to outscore DEN. I dont think BOSTON will play or feel that way. For DEN the Minny and NO games could be telling. DEN needs to push the pace and crate easy looks cause they dont have many shooters besides Kleiza and JR Smith both who can be inconsistent. Tough spot for DEN but like the UNDER.....
Miami @ Spurs :
I have come to realize that right now Miami is bad especially on offense. With that I am not in a rush to lay 11 points with SA cause of the issues they have had in B2B over the years. Going to be interesting to see Ricky Davis here vs Bowen. What would make think Miami doesnt score 85 here with Spurs playing last night ? If Spurs do cover then 97 is needed and that puts on 182..Hard to see Miami being as bad as PORT or SAC though.
memphis @ Seattle :
Another matchup that just puzzles. Seattle playing 3rd in 4 days while Mem is off since 11/03!
Over the years the Grizzlies have struggled @ Seattle but last years meetings showed no signs of defense .. Not to mention Mem is healthy again with Gasol while Sea is in rebuilding mode and doesnt know how to win games yet.
I hate chalk but dont see how we should bite on SEA in situations where they have to WIN to cash. Also SEA has announced plans to move and this is there 1st Home game...not a great spot! I dont see any defense but not sure about the total yet .
Cle @ Utah :
I dont get this line! Utah has beaten GSW twice and lost to Houston and LAL. We know GS is bad and while not impressively the Cavs did beat them last night. Again CLE 3rd roadie 4 days though. Hughes is OUT probably which makes me think more offense. Cle has won 5 of the 6 in the series and lost by 1 pint past two years. I know CLE has regressed some especially without Varejo , Hughes and Marshall here....
Cant justify laying -10 with Utah since McGrady and Kobe have killed them so why not LeBron ? I think this total is kinda low though ..???
Hornets @ Blazers :
Again madness..last game 11/3 for PORT and NO 3rd road game in 4 days...
These teams already met with NO cleaning house vs PORT 113-93. One thing for sure is I recall alot of people high on PORT in that spot after the OPENER. They started with3 tough games @ SA , @ NO , and @ HOU. For the most part they held there own in those games. Why would people jump ship on PORT now at home if they thought they could hang in NO? ( by the way I liked NO there)
Not crazy about this matchup but thinking DOG / UND. Port would need to win a sloppy game IMO....
THOUGHTS :
Raps -4.5 ( Und 191 )
( Char +4 / UND 189)
(Und 208 / ATL +6)
Over 207.5 / Ind -6
Und 202 (Den +6)
(Heat 1st H / Over 181)
Memphis PK ( Over 218)
(Cavs +9.5 / UND 194 ??)
Und 202 Port (Port +3)
GL
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
Added : 4 team Parlay :
West Michigan (+3) , Islanders Over 5 -130 , Charlotte +4.5 and Bulls -8.5 ( Not allowed to buy 1/2's otherwise I would have!!!!!!!!)
NBA:
Bobcats +5 (-120) :
PLAYED
Looks like Amare doesnt play here IMO. He says he is gametime decision then talks about how there isnt much to play for in NOV and wants consistency. So to me that says if I dont feel 100% then I am not risking it. Right now the Suns are trying to figure it out as a team IMO. The past 2 games they have been badly out rebounded and opposing forwards seem to be having there way offensively. Enter Emeka Okefor. There best hope is put him on the FT line. They arent shooting the 3 pt ball well yet but still taking a ton. There FT % is only 68% and they tend to only get around 20 attempts a game.
Kinda split bewteen the 1st H +2 or game line. I say that cause Suns have started slow in all games with big comebacks in the 4th vs Sonics and Cavs. Nice value at about 2 to 1 on the ML .
As I have said I felt the TOTAL is tough. I dont see how Suns really do beter then 105 here...would guess it lands withing 6 points of the number either way...
While the Hawks have played well and look attractive they are off a tough LOSS and are a young team. So you don't know how they will play here till tip and NJN is off that horrible beating by the Raptors. NJ seems to be good at jumping out to big 1st half leads then wilting in the 2nd H. So I will sit tight till HALFTIME on that game. Unless I get a sac and play NJN 1st H -2. While I dont see a high scoring affair I do like how NJ gets to the FT line. Due to that I lean OVER as I think it sneaks ov 189...like 99-93 game...
Knicks +4 (-120)
Not a believer in DENVER. You have to like there talent but with AI playing the point he has looked bad on offense past 2 games. No real special insight here other then I think NY plays hard and keeps it a game. Which might make the 1st H a better option due to there ability to fold in the 4th quarter for oh 15 years NOW! My concerns for NY are Randolph already proving to be a BLACK HOLE and little to speak of from Q. Richardson to date...
8PM :
Only interested in the UNDER 191 or 1st H Under @ MILW. Still looking at that game...
West Michigan (+3) , Islanders Over 5 -130 , Charlotte +4.5 and Bulls -8.5 ( Not allowed to buy 1/2's otherwise I would have!!!!!!!!)
NBA:
Bobcats +5 (-120) :
PLAYED
Looks like Amare doesnt play here IMO. He says he is gametime decision then talks about how there isnt much to play for in NOV and wants consistency. So to me that says if I dont feel 100% then I am not risking it. Right now the Suns are trying to figure it out as a team IMO. The past 2 games they have been badly out rebounded and opposing forwards seem to be having there way offensively. Enter Emeka Okefor. There best hope is put him on the FT line. They arent shooting the 3 pt ball well yet but still taking a ton. There FT % is only 68% and they tend to only get around 20 attempts a game.
Kinda split bewteen the 1st H +2 or game line. I say that cause Suns have started slow in all games with big comebacks in the 4th vs Sonics and Cavs. Nice value at about 2 to 1 on the ML .
As I have said I felt the TOTAL is tough. I dont see how Suns really do beter then 105 here...would guess it lands withing 6 points of the number either way...
While the Hawks have played well and look attractive they are off a tough LOSS and are a young team. So you don't know how they will play here till tip and NJN is off that horrible beating by the Raptors. NJ seems to be good at jumping out to big 1st half leads then wilting in the 2nd H. So I will sit tight till HALFTIME on that game. Unless I get a sac and play NJN 1st H -2. While I dont see a high scoring affair I do like how NJ gets to the FT line. Due to that I lean OVER as I think it sneaks ov 189...like 99-93 game...
Knicks +4 (-120)
Not a believer in DENVER. You have to like there talent but with AI playing the point he has looked bad on offense past 2 games. No real special insight here other then I think NY plays hard and keeps it a game. Which might make the 1st H a better option due to there ability to fold in the 4th quarter for oh 15 years NOW! My concerns for NY are Randolph already proving to be a BLACK HOLE and little to speak of from Q. Richardson to date...
8PM :
Only interested in the UNDER 191 or 1st H Under @ MILW. Still looking at that game...
We know I see value in WMU tonight. The weather situation in my opinion would definetly hurt CMU more then WMU.
Remember my points about expectations. Well some people though this WMU team would be the class of the MAC this season. However what I didnt realize was last year when CMU won 31-7 it hurt WMU title shot. So besides being a huge rivalry there could be some revenge in mind here. Factor in WMU hasnt lost at home since 93 but probably the first time they are dogged in the series. Which as you know I dont think they should be a DOG here ( PK is correct).
Just look at CMU wins @ Kent State with a freshman QB making his 1st start , Home vs Army , vs Toledo with its backup QB , No.Ill who is awful and @ Ball State the lone win with any luster.
Now WMU won @ NILL and @ Toledo. While Toledo's home field edge has lost some luster its a much better win .
While CMU offense is explosive it doesnt show to me to be a solid team over the course of the season. Some sexy blowouts dont mean much to me. When you lay points especially road chalk you have to have what is clearly the better team and CMU is not IMO. Outside of Army they havent been favored by -3 against ANYONE!!! WMU problem is some shit luck at the end of games and UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS. Just read the Fox Sports Season Preview.
They had a BAD loss @ EMU which they blew that game with sloppy play. If they would have not melted down against Akron and Ball State they would be 5-4 and 3-1 at home only losing to Indiana. My point is this team is tough at home. Tough enough to be winning in the closing moments. I wouldn't expect a TEAM to be in that situation and lose again....
Take +3.5 or ML whatever feels more comfortable......BOL
Remember my points about expectations. Well some people though this WMU team would be the class of the MAC this season. However what I didnt realize was last year when CMU won 31-7 it hurt WMU title shot. So besides being a huge rivalry there could be some revenge in mind here. Factor in WMU hasnt lost at home since 93 but probably the first time they are dogged in the series. Which as you know I dont think they should be a DOG here ( PK is correct).
Just look at CMU wins @ Kent State with a freshman QB making his 1st start , Home vs Army , vs Toledo with its backup QB , No.Ill who is awful and @ Ball State the lone win with any luster.
Now WMU won @ NILL and @ Toledo. While Toledo's home field edge has lost some luster its a much better win .
While CMU offense is explosive it doesnt show to me to be a solid team over the course of the season. Some sexy blowouts dont mean much to me. When you lay points especially road chalk you have to have what is clearly the better team and CMU is not IMO. Outside of Army they havent been favored by -3 against ANYONE!!! WMU problem is some shit luck at the end of games and UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS. Just read the Fox Sports Season Preview.
They had a BAD loss @ EMU which they blew that game with sloppy play. If they would have not melted down against Akron and Ball State they would be 5-4 and 3-1 at home only losing to Indiana. My point is this team is tough at home. Tough enough to be winning in the closing moments. I wouldn't expect a TEAM to be in that situation and lose again....
Take +3.5 or ML whatever feels more comfortable......BOL
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