Looking at this game in the MAC ....

Toledo is a team you will probably have to breakdown rather then take at face value. They started the season with Clint Cochran as there QB but that didnt last long. They lost at home to Purdue in the opener and traveled to CMU. They lost a shootout at CMU BUT Soph Aaron Opelt known more as a runner wound up 25/41 334yds and 2 TDs(9c 17 yds TD). They lost @ Kansas then won a squeaker at home to Iowa State. The thing about the out of conference teams they played is there defenses were not that bad . Ball State faced Nebraska and Navy early on who are absolutely awful( disgrace may be better phrasing) on defense. Recently they did face Illinois and Indiana and guess what they didn't score as much and after a slow start IU torched them. They did a nice job versus Illinois but remember they got a PICK 6 for 7 of there 17 points and Juice Williams didnt pass well that day.

Back to Toledo. They West Michigan game again MISLEADING. They were up 7-0 and about to go 14-0 when Opalt was picked in the end zone. Which in 5 starts vs MAC teams is his ONLY INT! In fact in the other 4 starts he has 9 TDs and 3 rushing TDS against no INTS. He also has been sacked just 3 times in his MAC starts and two were in the 1st game vs CMU. Now granted most of this was done at HOME so how heavy can we weigh this?? Back to the WMU game. The INT flipped momentum and fueled WMU. In the midst of there rally Opelt was injured midway through the 2nd Quarter and was done for the day. After restoring some momentum Parmalee fumbled the opening kick of the 2nd H and later Cochran in relief was injured. Seems like a day destined to NOT b Toledo's.

After the WMU game they used true Freshman DJ Lenahan for starts against Liberty and @ Buffalo. So lets be realistic how many teams will look good with a 3rd string true freshman and a poor defense ?? Not many. Opalt returned vs Ohio U and has led them to 3 straight wins. In the 4 completed MAC games his numbers are 1200yds 9TDS and 52 yds rushing and 3 TDs!! With no INTERCEPTIONS!

Looking at there 3 games on the road which where they supposed to win? The game @ CMU they were just switching QBs and wer only 3 pt dogs to a real solid CMU team who blasted Ball State. That line was way off at -12 considering the previous week they were only -14 to Buffalo! CMU is 5-0 in conference ! Huge difference in the teams.


Looking at Ball State they LOST at home to Miami Ohio and Ball State in conference. They beat West Kentucky and Buffalo at home nothing exciting. They squeaked by at West Michigan on a late TD and stomped EMU away. There claim to fame is there 4 out of conference games. The Neb game was also after the USC game so that has to play into NEB performance. They have shown they can hang around with teams who are weak defensively and Illini case inconsistent on offense. Toledo has not had the opportunity to show that due to injuries at QB.

My feeling is Ball State struggles vs the pass and will face a tough task with Parmalee and Collins running it . How will they stop Toledo's offense ?? How will Toledo slow Nate Davis ?? With only 9 sacks they dont pressure the QB at all. Even with the total soaring to 69 from 64 you have to like the OVER here. You have prolific offenses versus defenses who cant get off the field. With high totals its all about execution. If they dont give away points or settle for FGs deep inside the red zone we see at least 73 points IMO....if they do then 10 TDs is alot ! This is a huge game with both teams at 5-5 fighting for Bowl spots and Toledo has a nice history ON TV much of it probably at the Glass Bowl though. CMU vs MAC teams have scored 27 , 38 , 49 , 38 and only 13 in the opener.


Right now my problem is I think they may have opened this game SHORT at -5.5 . It now has been bought up to -7 though. Was thinking more like -8 .

My thoughts are OVER 69 ( expect at least 73 pts in this game)Always check weather with huge totals...

For a side I feel that if Ball State wins they do it by 10 + so if you like Toledo better to take the ML....

GL