NFL Thoughts :

Looking at the early starts the UNDERDOGS really stand out .

Buffalo Bills +8 :

Doesn't this spread look quite big ? I think I am in the minority of people who believed that last Sunday Buffalo had no shot in that game. For someone who hates to lay road chalk I didn't waiver at the -10 for the 1st Half. The Bills are a bend don't break type team in every sense. Facing a team NE who is loaded with offensive firepower and backed with a stud defense was a task they could not overcome. If you referenced the Dallas game there is one huge difference between Dallas and NE. That is NE NEVER EVER seems to beat itself. They don't make unforced errors. Why did Buffalo play Dallas tight and all you have to do is look at Tony Romo's play. The PATS are a well oil machined with a history of shutting down Lee Evans. How would Buffalo crack 14 points ??

Anyway that beating provides motivation for a 5-5 Buffalo team and creates negative public perception.

Lets remember that Jax has now lost Mike Peterson there self proclaimed defensive leader and possibly CB Rashean Mathis. This is addition to the loss of Marcus Stroud. Peterson loss puts another LB in his spot and puts a bench player in the other spot. Really creating 2 players in different positions then last week.

The Jags struggle vs the pass and flat out stop the run. Well the one thing Losman can do is throw deep balls to Lee Evans. If Mathis is OUT the advantage becomes even greater but still he figures to be less then 100%. Rivers looked like crap versus Indy then went for 300 yards vs Jax. So look for Buffalo to be able to put some points on the board here. Also note that Jags could be in look ahead mode with a game @ Indy the following week. This year Jags are 0-2 laying more then 7 and last year were 2-2 (0-2 as DD previous year). Not the greatest team laying big numbers sort of like how Carolina is. WHich is due to there history of being a solid defense who depends on running the ball.

Despite UNDER trends this seems like an OVER to me cause both defenses are overrated....something to consider could be the Bills team total...14 ??


Skins +3.5

Call me crazy but I don't see how TB in the eyes of oddsmakers is even or even slightly better then Wash? After all the Skins were -3 to Philly a few weeks ago , only +3 @ GB , -9 vs Zona and so on....now yes I will agree these were mostly bad lines I faded. They were off but not extremely off say with in 3 points of real value IMO.

Even with the Skins injuries I think this should be closer to -1.5 TB. After all Campbell has played TB as that was his 1st career start in 20-17 loss last year. The secondary is banged up but held up well outside of Springs performance in Dallas. Reportedly he just wasn't there mentally being in Dallas where his father is hospitalized among other things.

Outside of the Pats road game the Skins have been fairly solid in 4 road games and should have won in GB. Look at the QBs TB has defeated..Leftwich / Harrington , Warner , Kerry Collins and barely( actually lost to Quinn Gray ) , David Carr , Marc Bulger with bad ribs in a monsoon and Drew Brees early on as 5 pt home dogs.

Huge game for the 5-5 Skins and as maligned s the secondary is with injuries you have to take away one WR on TB and let Graham beat you..

Campbell has 5 TD vs 1 INT past 2 weeks and is spreading the ball around well. Thrash(still OUT) , McCardell , S.Moss , Randle El and Cooley all involved.

Rams +3.5

How can I not like a home dog playing a divisional game. First thing is the last meeting is way misleading. I believe Torry Holt dropped a pass that would have been a TD right after Sea's Burleson returned the 2nd H kickoff for a TD. They just fell apart after that. I wont knock the Rams for last week cause SF has been solid on defense nearly every week. Hasselback and Hackett don't look to be 100% and Alexander is still out. Rams are getting healthier each week and now Stussie returns. If not for Stephen Jackson re injuring himself in the CLE game they would be on a 3 game win streak.

Raiders +5 :

Lets see OAK's CBs are healthy again and they stink vs the run. Oh wait . LJ is OUT still and Holmes HAD TO retire! That leaves Kolby Smith with 10 carries and 17 yards as your featured back. Mix in the young Brodie Coyle and Dwayne Bowe and this is an awfully RAW offense.

People will get excited about the way the played INDY. Which was great but whats changed? They outplayed them and lost . Do they know how to win and can they kick FG's??? Serious questions to ask.

Culpepper found the deep touch again hooking up on some long plays. It's hard to believe but Oak has the better offense at this point and better kicker. To me the defenses are even but KC has home field but playing at Arrowhead is not such a big deal these days.....also look @ OAK schedule this may be the last winnable game for them.

Vikings +7.5

A game truly loaded with injuries. All world stud RB Peterson is almost definitely OUT . More intriguing to me is the fact Tony Richardson looks doubtful and that is quite the loss IMO. Also on defense Winfield figures not to play.

This would be more a play AGAINST NYG then on Minnesota. Sure they are a dome team in the cold but they won at CHI in 55 degree weather should be low 40s here. NYG will be w/o Ward and Jacobs at RB leaving Droughns who hasn't looked great in awhile. Plax has disappeared the past 4 games and to his actions are telling me his ankle is slowly getting worse if anything. Last 4 games he has no TDS and that's the way to beat Minny by throwing deep. NYG also lost Kiwaunka last week....

Texans +3.5

Now that HOUSTON is healthy offensively they to me are the equivalent of CLE. However I see a Browns team off 3 straight WARS and a defense continually losing bodies. They had the comeback versus Seattle in OT , the battle @ Pitt , followed by one of the luckiest wins in NFL history last week @ Balt. When Houston has had a healthy AJ and Schaub they have looked good. Just think this is the perfect situation where the lucky breaks catch up to them as the should have lost in STL a month ago as well.


The other games I don't see how we can look at Cincy or New Orleans. Tenny might have haynesworth back and he really seems to be the key to the defense. Cincy has banged WRs in CJ , Housmanzadeh and G.Holt. That's not a good sign. Tenny is definitely the better team if you focus on the fact that Cincy has just 3 wins vs Balt twice and NYJ and were smoked by Arizona !!! With the Saints Reggie Bush isn't looked so good health wise. The fact that Testaverde is probably OUT doesn't help BUT CAROLINA won in NO with Carr and Moore already. Some how the Panthers offense actually showed some life last week. The defense hasn't been that bad and if the offense would just protect the ball it would help the Panther defense out. Which by the way Caroina still looking for HOME WIN #1 and this looks like a great spot...so lean CAR and even Ten slightly



Later ....

49ers +10.5

The Niner offense is a concern but I think Dilfer is progressing and they almost pulled one out last week. Who is Zona to lay 10 points to anyone?? Sure if they limit SF to 10 or less points they can cover but I think SF could suprise. Some of which is due to Warner's propensity to fumble and make negative plays.

Last 7 meetings Zona 4-3 with 3 FG losses so usually competitive games.

Ravens @ SD

Tough game because BALT could show up flat here and if there defense isnt up to par then it could be ugly. We know Balt lost Pryce again and there CB situation is question mark. Heap and Williams appear OUT again. I think Boller gives them a much better chance of competing but he is mistake prone.

SD defense will make it hard on McGahee and leave it to Boller. Huge game for SD


Bears -1

Right now I cant be excited about Den play past 2 weeks. It has been better but I dont think they are better then Chi. The Bears I thought played well in Sea considering it was there second trip out there in as many weeks. Grossman playing decent and that could be a plus....like fading DEN off a MNF win especially when they allowed 28 1st downs and 400+ yards.......