Not really the Night I was looking for last night. I think I have discovered the longer I look at the games the worse my performance is. For me i think its better to just take a couple of hours and weed through the stuff later in the day then go through games over and over again. Plus alot of things just look good at the last moment. Plays I may lean to and something just stands out close to tip. Such as NJN -2 1st H....anyway...

Magic @ Raps :
-Tor 8-2 SU past 10 meetings & 9-1 ATS( 6-0 at home ATS last 6 series).
-ORL injuries : Nelson should return from concussion , Turkoglu listed but no report of injury , Reddick OUT. If Turkoglu was to sit out that woukd be a huge difference with Garrity taking his spot and thinning the bench further. Also meaning more Adonal Foyle which is more defense and alot less offense.

I did't really like TOR yesterday after losing a tough OT game against Boston. I suspected they could be hungover and it seems they were. Mitchell rested his starters with only Ford playing 20 minutes while ORL had 4 guys play 37 + minutes .

Would have liked to see a -3 here but I think its great bounce back spot for the RAPS. Last year you would have seen about -6 here. ORL picked up Lewis and lost some role players while Tor flipped MoPete for Kapono. Kapono has been awful on defense and you wonder how do they contain Rashard Lewis here , maybe use 6'6 Parker on him ?? TOR has so much more depth look at there 2nd unit who get valuable minutes yesterday!

Totals are tough right now. Orl has flipped between allowing 80 something and 100+ something pts in its games. Alternating Under , Over , Under , Over , tonite? Raps had played solid D till yesterday as even Philly needed fourth quarter garbage points to get to 97. They have allowed alot of threes but havent put opponents on the line much.

Char @ Philly :
Felton's status from ROTOWORLD ( great site):

The Charlotte Observer reports that Raymond Felton's MRI came back "A-OK" and that at least, he should be with some rest, with a heavy dose of anti-inflammatories.

Felton is still questionable for Wednesday's game against the Grizzlies, but as the Bobcats want to be cautious with their young star, expect him to be rested at least for tonight in favor of Jeff McInnis. Check back later for further results of his tests and his game status for tonight.

So lets assume he is OUT and McInnis is in that hurts there offense. What I witnessd last nite was scary to say the least on offense from them. Would think Andre Miller plays here.

-Home team is 9-1 SU(Char 7-3 ATS) and Philly 5-0 (3-2 ATS).

I tend to not like taking the fav when a STAR player is OUT. Especially in his initial absence. So while everything points to Philly I will wait till gametime to make a decision which will probably be PASS unless this runs up higher to which I might take the DOG (+5.5 +??)

Both teams can defend looks like an UNDER 1st H to me.....


Pho @ ATL :

Not crazy about this one. Hawks have played well and Suns looked good last nite. I was reminded how well PHO can be on the road vs the EAST last night. So w/o getting like 7 or 8 points its tough to envision the dog wiining SU. They caught Dallas in a good spot and held on to win earlier.

Despite previous high scoring meetings I prefer the UNDER. Suns benefitted from sloppy play of CHAR last nite to push the pace and get easy look after easy look. I would think looking at how ATL has played it wont be so easy here. Suns are talking about there defense and ATL is limited on how many shots they get...who is there scorer after Joe Johnson ?? Josh Smith ?

LAC @ INDY :

If you look at past history you wonder where the FUCK did 207 coime from? UNDER is 8-2 past 10 meetings with no totals really above 192! If you recall Jim O"Brien is looking to play uptempo basketball and the main reason Jermaine O'Neal sat out the opener was due to conditioning . We saw what LAC could do at home vs uptempo offenses..115 and 120. If you look at last nights game the bulls shot an awful 35 % and combined for 79 2nd H points to finish with 188 in the game.

Really bad spot for LAC here . Third game in 4 nights while INDY has been off since 11/03!!!! Molbey has ben excellent and said his aggressive attitude is back. Hinrich said the physical play was tough for him to overcome on end in regards to guarding him. I would assume since Dunleavy is playing the 2 spot he will guard Mobley...Dunleavy is 6'10! While LAC has played three of the worst NBA teams at the moment Indy will be there toughest test IMO....You would expect Indy to run them out of the GYM! Indy allowed 99 shots to Wash , 96 to Miami and while only 66 to mem the Grizz still had 111 points!!!!!! Why ....51 FT attempts and Wash had 42 FT attempts....Miami just is not good offensively....

DEN @ Boston :
Another HOME team of REST with MOMENTUM playing a team in a B2B and 3rd in 4 days.

Before you get overexcited about the OVER. Boston is talking more about DEFENSE then offense and by this I mean the players. Allowed 83 vs Wash and 78 in regulation @ Toronto! With Denver remember Kenyon Martin didnt play. The Knicks havent looked good defensively and the only way they could WIN was to outscore DEN. I dont think BOSTON will play or feel that way. For DEN the Minny and NO games could be telling. DEN needs to push the pace and crate easy looks cause they dont have many shooters besides Kleiza and JR Smith both who can be inconsistent. Tough spot for DEN but like the UNDER.....

Miami @ Spurs :

I have come to realize that right now Miami is bad especially on offense. With that I am not in a rush to lay 11 points with SA cause of the issues they have had in B2B over the years. Going to be interesting to see Ricky Davis here vs Bowen. What would make think Miami doesnt score 85 here with Spurs playing last night ? If Spurs do cover then 97 is needed and that puts on 182..Hard to see Miami being as bad as PORT or SAC though.


memphis @ Seattle :

Another matchup that just puzzles. Seattle playing 3rd in 4 days while Mem is off since 11/03!

Over the years the Grizzlies have struggled @ Seattle but last years meetings showed no signs of defense .. Not to mention Mem is healthy again with Gasol while Sea is in rebuilding mode and doesnt know how to win games yet.

I hate chalk but dont see how we should bite on SEA in situations where they have to WIN to cash. Also SEA has announced plans to move and this is there 1st Home game...not a great spot! I dont see any defense but not sure about the total yet .


Cle @ Utah :

I dont get this line! Utah has beaten GSW twice and lost to Houston and LAL. We know GS is bad and while not impressively the Cavs did beat them last night. Again CLE 3rd roadie 4 days though. Hughes is OUT probably which makes me think more offense. Cle has won 5 of the 6 in the series and lost by 1 pint past two years. I know CLE has regressed some especially without Varejo , Hughes and Marshall here....

Cant justify laying -10 with Utah since McGrady and Kobe have killed them so why not LeBron ? I think this total is kinda low though ..???

Hornets @ Blazers :

Again madness..last game 11/3 for PORT and NO 3rd road game in 4 days...

These teams already met with NO cleaning house vs PORT 113-93. One thing for sure is I recall alot of people high on PORT in that spot after the OPENER. They started with3 tough games @ SA , @ NO , and @ HOU. For the most part they held there own in those games. Why would people jump ship on PORT now at home if they thought they could hang in NO? ( by the way I liked NO there)

Not crazy about this matchup but thinking DOG / UND. Port would need to win a sloppy game IMO....


THOUGHTS :

Raps -4.5 ( Und 191 )
( Char +4 / UND 189)
(Und 208 / ATL +6)
Over 207.5 / Ind -6
Und 202 (Den +6)
(Heat 1st H / Over 181)
Memphis PK ( Over 218)
(Cavs +9.5 / UND 194 ??)
Und 202 Port (Port +3)


GL