Monday, November 26, 2007

NCAAB :

like everyone out there trying to get a feel for some of these teams if not all. One thing that helps is I rely on determination of weak or strong lines combined with situational aspects....

Akron -4 -120: of course it went from -4.5 to -5.5 while I was typing

I think the sentiment with Akron is they aren't as good as years past. However we can't rely on the Alaska tournament to make this determination. They clearly didnt play well vs inferior competition but it was there first 3 games of the season. Now they have returned home and beat up on a cupcake squad. What has Temple done to date? Okay they beat BG as Pick tahnks in part to a huge second half where BG went cold. BG is a team with anew head coach off a 3-13 conference record who is not is the class of Akron..Hell Akron was -8.5 and -17.5 vs BG last season. Temple barely beat Marist a MAAC school , lost to Charleston and Providence in Hawaii. They have been traveling alot and at some point that will catch up to them....can Wood continue to play well and can Allen stay out of foul trouble...

So basically Akron has been tough at home , lost only 7 games last season , are facing a team who is on the upswing but not there yet and last if TEmple is a PK vs BG then shouldnt this be closer to 8 or so......?? Plus remember how Temple couldnt score vs providence late?? That would concern me vs a solid defensive squad....

Would have prefered the Under at 139 or better...thinking 71-63 game....so 136ish cuts it close..

Over 140 USF and FIU :{LEAN}

Would lean towards USF cause this is FU 1st quality opponent. Simply put I expect both teams to be in the 70s here and ....game should see 150's or better...USF should get to the line and I am hopefully they can combine for 70% from the lien despite high 60's avg to date...total drop has be looking at this more closely...


App St +6 :
Sure Davidson has revenge on its mind but getting revenge on the road isnt quite that easy. Especially when u have to win by 7 points on top of that. It seem sthat Davidson are the public darlings of the mid major ranks now. They hung with UNC in the opener after a great postseason last year. Problem is App State beat them on the road last year. App St has lost some qaulity players and Davidson is back seemingly in tack. However I think Davidson probably wins by 2-4 points in a close battle that Davidson pulls ahead in the final two minutes....thinking about the OVER 151 as well...

1st H Under and 1st H Iowa :

Simply put Wake's 1st true road game . Iowa could be tired after the Texas trip but its not a trip where they had to leave the country so I am not weighing that heavily. Iowa has offenive issues and if they play zone they force WF to shoot which has not been a strong point to date.....


Cant say I know a thing about Murray State or Ark St . However I think Murray State is about 6 pts better then E.ILL on a neutral court( ArK St last opponent). It appears Ark State is also about 6 points better then E.Ill on a neutral court..so I would make Murray St -1 on a neutral vs Ark St and ONLY -4.5 at home. They opened at -5.5 and went to -6.5 . So my guessestimates have this as a FAT Line but I have absolutely noknowledge to back it up and yet this line was driven higher.....this could be a public sentiment fade at +7 -120....not sure though a pure guess by me that this line is off....Ark St +7 -120...

Still working on later games.....GL

No comments: