Tuesday, November 06, 2007

We know I see value in WMU tonight. The weather situation in my opinion would definetly hurt CMU more then WMU.

Remember my points about expectations. Well some people though this WMU team would be the class of the MAC this season. However what I didnt realize was last year when CMU won 31-7 it hurt WMU title shot. So besides being a huge rivalry there could be some revenge in mind here. Factor in WMU hasnt lost at home since 93 but probably the first time they are dogged in the series. Which as you know I dont think they should be a DOG here ( PK is correct).

Just look at CMU wins @ Kent State with a freshman QB making his 1st start , Home vs Army , vs Toledo with its backup QB , No.Ill who is awful and @ Ball State the lone win with any luster.

Now WMU won @ NILL and @ Toledo. While Toledo's home field edge has lost some luster its a much better win .

While CMU offense is explosive it doesnt show to me to be a solid team over the course of the season. Some sexy blowouts dont mean much to me. When you lay points especially road chalk you have to have what is clearly the better team and CMU is not IMO. Outside of Army they havent been favored by -3 against ANYONE!!! WMU problem is some shit luck at the end of games and UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS. Just read the Fox Sports Season Preview.

They had a BAD loss @ EMU which they blew that game with sloppy play. If they would have not melted down against Akron and Ball State they would be 5-4 and 3-1 at home only losing to Indiana. My point is this team is tough at home. Tough enough to be winning in the closing moments. I wouldn't expect a TEAM to be in that situation and lose again....

Take +3.5 or ML whatever feels more comfortable......BOL
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2 comments:

Jeff said...

hey mike,
what's your opinion on the total of phoenix vs. charlotte tonight...looking at the over myself

Tue Nov 06, 02:21:00 PM
SportsNut {Mike} said...

Jeff ,

Lets assume that Amare is OUT here. I have to be honest and say due to being out this weekend I saw neither the game vs LAL or CLE. Which would be of interest to me since I would like to have seen how they looked vs Cle w/o Amare.

From what I read it was expected that Nash would start slow this year because he is behind schedule. He looked better vs Cle but the 3pt shot doesnt seem there yet. Amare puts Diaw back in the starting lineup leaving only stud 6th man Barbosa off the bench.

Right now PHO gets about 85-89 shots per game but at about 45% clip , they are not shooting three's well and still dont get to the FT line much but worse they are hitting mid 60's. I would guess that Suns struggle to get to 105 points here .

Charlotte on the other hand scares me cause they shot 22 of 43 from the LINE in the Opener. FTs should be FREE POINST. They greatly improved in the 2nd game. Offensively they are playing and shooting well. Though they dont have much of a bench either with Matt Carroll seeing limited minutes so far.

I wonder due to the shorter bench will Suns try to slow it down some? Can either starting lineup RUN all game?

Just looking at stats I would have a hard time playing an OVER 209 here. You have Amare out and Suns high score is 106 @ Seattle who is young and plays NO defense. Charlotte is rebounding well and Suns are getting hurt on the glass. I dont like playing SUNS UNDERs unless they are 215 or higher.

Take it for what its worth just my opinion as I said I havent seen much of them since there opener and dont believe I watched Char at all. If I had to make a play in this one I think its going to be on Charlotte ( maybe 1st H since Suns have started slow so far) . For the total maybe wait till HALFTIME see whats up and if there is value play the over...cause I would expect a high scoring 4th quarter....

Right now Suns are not what they were IMO.....

Tue Nov 06, 03:57:00 PM

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