SAT THOUGHTS
A Nice windy and rainy( just kidding) Saturday afternoon down the Jersey Shore has left me with a decent amount of time. Last nite was awesome...watching the DBacks win that game in the 15 th inning to a cap of a near perfect nite was well awesome.
YTD UPDATE: Tuesday thru FRIDAY
(10units) xxx
(7units) 5-0 +35.7
(5units) 5-1-1 +19.45
(3units) 8-4 +10.02
(1unit) 18-18 +1.12
Nice 18-5-1 record on the 'big' plays +65.17 and 18-18 +1.12 record on the 'small' ones.........Thats +66 units in four days most people would be estatic about that type performance over a season! Even an 18-4 NITE alone speaks for itself!
August 25th
Indians +110 (unit) Win 4-2
Under 5 First 5 INN DET-CLE -117 (unit) Loss , 4-2 after 5 innings
Under 8.5 -120 Pitt-Hou(unit) Win , Houston wins 5-1
Under9.5 -130 Philly and NYM (unit) Win , Phills 4-3
Orioles -170 (unit) Win 4-0Under 10 -123
Balt-tb (5units) Win , 4-0
Over 9.5 -120 Wash and Atl(unit) Win , Wash 7-6
Marlins -118 (unit) Win 6-5 , -1.5 runs +183(unit)loss. won 6-5 , First 5 INN -116 (unit)Win , lead 6-5 after 5 innings
Under 5 -102 First 5 INN StL-ChiC(unit) Win , 2-0 after 5 innings
Pre Season NFL
NYG -4.5 -106 (3units) Win , NYG 13-7
Eagles -3-105 (3units) Win , PHI 16-7
Vikes -2.5 -105 (unit) Win , Min 30-7
Rangers +110 (unit) loss 9-3(liked the over too!!)
Over 9.5 -106 Min and ChiW(unit) loss , 5-4
Rockies -151 (5units) Won 13-5
Diamondbacks +110 (7units) Won 9-7, ARL +208 (unit) won 9-7 & over 9 -125(3units) Won
Giants -108 (3units) Won 4-1
Under 5 -115 First 5 Innings Seattle(unit) won , 2-0 after 5 innings
FRI RECAP: 18-4 +37.65
(7unit) 1-0 (+7.7)
(5unit) 2-0 (+10.)
(3unit) 4-0 (+12.)
(1unit) 11-4 (+7.95)
Early starts:
Braves -219 (2units)
Smoltz has been extremely tough at home and compared toother hoime startsvs WASH he is cheap here. Astacio really struggling on the road.
Would be a 3 unit play if the chalk wasnt so high
Cubs +1.5 runs +107 (unit)
Worth a shot. STL struggles against LH lately and Hill has to turn in a solid away start sooner or later. Carpenter for as good as he has been at home still just 8-4 in 12 starts.
Working on the 4 PM starts!
4:05 PM
Giants -111(3units) & Over 8.5 -116 (5units)
Lets see some over trends for you :
Cincy 22-14 OVER vs LHP
SFG 7-3 OVER Last 10 Day games
Arroyo 3-4 4.71 DAy
Lowry 1-3 5.54 Day ( 5 of 6 starts over)
Wind 0-10 MPH @ SF the over is 13-2(supposedly no wind right now)
SFG 28-13 OVER day
Laz Diaz 17-9 UNDER but because IMO the pens have excelled in his games just 1.67 runs allowed by them in his games and 1.52 runs in the 7th thru 9th innings when he calls a game. A big reason why his runs per is just 8.11 per.
Riding the SFG cause IMO they have the better SP going now. Lowry stinks in the day but has gone 8 1/3 , 9 and 9 in three of his past 4. Cincy just 22-31 in day games but has dropped 14 of there last 19 starts. Dont expect a strong performance as recent starts from Lowry but I think he gets some run support here to work with.
Small adds:
Over 5.5 +103 LAA and NYY First 5 Inn(unit)
LAA -103 (unit)
Over 5 +106 Toronto First 5 Inn (unit)
4:35 PM
Under 9 +101 Baltimore and TB(3units)
Really not going to try and explain this. Just look at my post from yesterday concerning the Rays lack of offense on the road and see that Baldelli looks doubtful. The biggest concern is that for some reason Bedard has been shitty twice at Camden vs TB as compared to the other near gems he has thrown. Shields has strung together a few solid outings and is ahead of Hammel at this point and he did nicely yesterday.
6PM's and NFL
Bills -3-120 9unit)
Chargers -3.5 -104 (unit)
Jags -3.5 -106 (3units)
Rams +3 -108 (3units)
Was thinking hard about FLA but passing on it.
Tonite:
Rangers -111 (5units)
Personally I feel that you get TEX real cheap here . In the past Blanton has been okay at Arlington but still usually around +130 or +140. The guys has greatly improved on teh road but still I dont trust him much and he doesnt give you more then 6 innings most nites...which can be key with Houston Street OUT depleting the pen. Eaton deoesnt have a large body of work to go off but he has been fairly decent IMO. Had to jump on this as the line got pounded down. Always a coin flip when these 2 play and I get to gamble with the home team for even money .
White Sox+129 (2units)
Under 9 DET & CLE -103( 2units)
Indians even(2units)
Under 9.5 Sea & Bos +105(unit)
Saturday, August 26, 2006
YTD UPDATE: Tuesday thru FRIDAY
(10units) xxx
(7units) 5-0 +35.5
(5units) 5-1-1 +19.45
(3units) 8-4 +10.02
(1unit) 18-18 +1.12
The RECAP of the past days up until FRIDAY :
August 25th
Indians +110 (unit) Win 4-2
Under 5 First 5 INN DET-CLE -117 (unit) Loss , 4-2 after 5 innings
Under 8.5 -120 Pitt-Hou(unit) Win , Houston wins 5-1
Under9.5 -130 Philly and NYM (unit) Win , Phills 4-3
Orioles -170 (unit) Win 4-0
Under 10 -123 Balt-tb (5units) Win , 4-0
Over 9.5 -120 Wash and Atl(unit) Win , Wash 7-6
Marlins -118 (unit) Win 6-5 , -1.5 runs +183(unit)loss. won 6-5 , First 5 INN -116 (unit)Win , lead 6-5 after 5 innings
Under 5 -102 First 5 INN StL-ChiC(unit) Win , 2-0 after 5 innings
Pre Season NFL
NYG -4.5 -106 (3units) Win , NYG 13-7
Eagles -3-105 (3units) Win , PHI 16-7
Vikes -2.5 -105 (unit) Win , Min 30-7
Rangers +110 (unit) loss 9-3(liked the over too!!)
Over 9.5 -106 Min and ChiW(unit) loss , 5-4
Rockies -151 (5units) Won 13-5
Diamondbacks +110 (7units) Won 9-7, ARL +208 (unit) won 9-7 & over 9 -125(3units)Won
Giants -108 (3units) Won 4-1
Under 5 -115 First 5 Innings Seattle(unit) won , 2-0 after 5 innings
RECAP:
(7unit) 1-0 (+7.7)
(5unit) 2-0 (+10.)
(3unit) 4-0 (+12.)
(1unit) 11-4 (+7.95)
Thursday RECAP (+3.32 units)
(7unit) 2-0 (+14.0)
(5unit) XXXXXXX
(3unit) 1-3 (-7.98)
(1unit) 3-5 (-2.70)
WED RECAP (-7.70)
5 units( 1-1 -0.55)
3units ( 0-1 -3.)
1unit ( 1-5 -4.15)
TUESDAY RECAP(+33.02)
7 Units (2-0 +14.)
5 Units (2-0-1 +10.)
3 Units (3-0 +9.)
1 Unit (3-4 +0.02 )
(10units) xxx
(7units) 5-0 +35.5
(5units) 5-1-1 +19.45
(3units) 8-4 +10.02
(1unit) 18-18 +1.12
The RECAP of the past days up until FRIDAY :
August 25th
Indians +110 (unit) Win 4-2
Under 5 First 5 INN DET-CLE -117 (unit) Loss , 4-2 after 5 innings
Under 8.5 -120 Pitt-Hou(unit) Win , Houston wins 5-1
Under9.5 -130 Philly and NYM (unit) Win , Phills 4-3
Orioles -170 (unit) Win 4-0
Under 10 -123 Balt-tb (5units) Win , 4-0
Over 9.5 -120 Wash and Atl(unit) Win , Wash 7-6
Marlins -118 (unit) Win 6-5 , -1.5 runs +183(unit)loss. won 6-5 , First 5 INN -116 (unit)Win , lead 6-5 after 5 innings
Under 5 -102 First 5 INN StL-ChiC(unit) Win , 2-0 after 5 innings
Pre Season NFL
NYG -4.5 -106 (3units) Win , NYG 13-7
Eagles -3-105 (3units) Win , PHI 16-7
Vikes -2.5 -105 (unit) Win , Min 30-7
Rangers +110 (unit) loss 9-3(liked the over too!!)
Over 9.5 -106 Min and ChiW(unit) loss , 5-4
Rockies -151 (5units) Won 13-5
Diamondbacks +110 (7units) Won 9-7, ARL +208 (unit) won 9-7 & over 9 -125(3units)Won
Giants -108 (3units) Won 4-1
Under 5 -115 First 5 Innings Seattle(unit) won , 2-0 after 5 innings
RECAP:
(7unit) 1-0 (+7.7)
(5unit) 2-0 (+10.)
(3unit) 4-0 (+12.)
(1unit) 11-4 (+7.95)
Thursday RECAP (+3.32 units)
(7unit) 2-0 (+14.0)
(5unit) XXXXXXX
(3unit) 1-3 (-7.98)
(1unit) 3-5 (-2.70)
WED RECAP (-7.70)
5 units( 1-1 -0.55)
3units ( 0-1 -3.)
1unit ( 1-5 -4.15)
TUESDAY RECAP(+33.02)
7 Units (2-0 +14.)
5 Units (2-0-1 +10.)
3 Units (3-0 +9.)
1 Unit (3-4 +0.02 )
Friday, August 25, 2006
Friday's Thoughts
At first glance I didnt see all that much I liked. Now a few hours deep and I am uncovering some things I do see a valueable. So going to try and do best to update you guys as to what I am thinking. Wont try and fnalize till half hour before start times. Just like that little extra time to adjust my unit sizes. Last 2 days I have had such little free time to 'cap' games and post its been extremely detrimental to my performance. If you asked me my fav plays of the past 2 days I would have said probably the only 4 winners I picked...Hous (wed afternoon) , Pitt and Under 10 NYM last nite along with the Yanks under. I have done a poor job spreading my units around(and "gamnling on marginal ideas') but I guess the good news is after an amazing Tuesday worst case is I gave back a few 'units'. It happens , rather it be because of my poor judgement rather then poor capping. I NEED to recap and update the past 2 days...wont happen till later on!
Here we go:
Under 10-123 Orioles and TB (5 units)
Orioles -170(unit)
This has to look like a strange play to some. Cabrera and Hammel and you want to play an Under? Well my first comment is I truly have no idea what to expect out of Hammel. I know he is a solid prospect who made a couple starts in April , one against BALT his ML debut where he was shelled. Hopely that fuels him here. He was sent down and posted average AAA numbers but a very solid BBto K ratio and K/per 9 inning ratio. Really cant see if he progressed as the yr went on.
Tist has me excited since Balt last 4 games really not hitting. It's understandable that when Tor is trying to avoid a sweep and they send out HAlladay that he shuts down there lineup . Its understandable Silva gets smacked around and the pen keeps BALT in check. Can anyone explain they lack of offense the past 2 games against strong prospects Matt Garza and Boof Boonser?? I mean 3 runs in 2 games at home....that leaves a great deal of hope for me with young Hammel.
Then we have TB, can someone explain to me when there PEN got so solid?? That pen did a wonderful job against TEXAS past 4 days. The key is the Devil Rays catastrophic collapse on the road dropping 15 of there last 16 all since the BREAK!. That one win a 19-7 trouncing of my Yanks. Now the sick part is 19 runs that day and 30 runs total the other 15 games. The MATH genius that I am realizes that 2 runs per but worse is the startling consistency they have shown.
Runs per game breakdown
@ Sea 4 ,1,0
@ Oak 2,3,1
@NYY 2,19, 0
@Minn 4,2,1,3
@LAA 5,2,0
Now Cabrera comes in off his best start of the year and lets face it we know Daniel Cabrera himself is his own worst enemy. Why? Simple command and control issues!! Last start vs TB he had 10 K's but 9 BB's! He has always been decent against TB in his career. This new TB lineup is real thin and YOUNG. Gomes is probably OUT and Branyan just traded to SD. We look okay with Baldelli , Upton and Crawford but 4 thru 9 is interesting.....Norton , Navarro , Lee , Cantu (slumping @ 244), Hollins and the dude with a Z -last name I cant remember right now. Balts pen also was fairly solid in the Minn series but here 's to hoping Cabrera can give us 7 tonite! Unfortunately dont have any UMPIRE INFO!
Rockies -151 (5units )
Again am I crazy? Colorado who has looked like ass dropping all those road games. Here's what I realized. Jeff Francis has quietly been awesome at Coors this season. You look and see 2.96 ERA at home but a 1.00 WHIP and only 46 hits in 70 innings!!! Damn! The scary part is he really buckled down after his 1st two poor starts in April winning 7 of the past 9 there and after the shaky start vs Texas. Past four at home 2 runs in 7 2/3 inn, 2 er (4runs ) in 7 inn(vs COL), complete game shutout and 5 inning 1hit no run performance!! Thompson does own 2 solid 6 inn starts versus COL thi syr allowing 3 runs but his road numbers arent so good. He was solid at Coors but his other starts were all 5 innings and one was 4 innings. A 1.73 WHIP and 5.88 ERA isnt impressing anyone.
SD is 13-15 vs LHP but really struggling of late verus them . SD won 1-0 vs Hendrickson and lost 5-3 vs Lowry on the recent homestand . Since the bvreak the only LHP they have hit wel is Hendrickson in Dodger LAnd were he has been awful!! This is all about SP for me as both have solid pens and soft offenses. Colorado has a significant edge with Francis who had his string of 6 straight starts with 7 + innings snapped in NY due to a bad 6th inning. LAD is also just 27-35 away this season and 1-5 in Zona .
7PM starts:
Indians +110 (unit)
-Based on what I see as a slumping Tiger lineup vs LHP and Sowers excellent pitching at home.
Under 5 First 5 INN DET-CLE -117 (unit)
-see Bondermans away splits and Sowers starts at home since his ML debut.
Under 8.5 -120 Pitt-Hou(unit)
-Two SP who dont get much run support. Clemens is really tough on Pitt dont look at the SEPT 05 start he was dead tired and Santos has his moments where he gives you 5 or 6 solid innings...lets face it Houston isnt hitting much lately.
Under9.5 -130 Philly and NYM (unit)
- Wolf was showing improvement till his poor outing last time out BUT owns good numbers vs NY. Also NY not hitting LH that well lately. Bannister was solid early in the season and has had more then enough time to get bakc in a groove in the minors. Cool damp nite as well.
Orioles -170 (unit)
Under 10 -123 Balt-tb (5units)
-see earlier comments
7:35 starts:
Over 9.5 -120 Wash and Atl(unit)
Really following a trend where when WASH opposes a LH starter recently the game is extremely high scoring. Ortiz has been rocked in 4 career starts vs ATL of 6 but the two solid ones have been at ATL which is cause for concern. James has been solid but a tad inconsistent and I am hoping that the second time around WASH gets better AB's off him and really both pens are inconsistent as well. The situation plays out where WASH hits better off LH's and ATL against RH's...
Marlins -118 (unit) , -1.5 runs +183(unit) , First 5 INN -116 (unit)
Basically both teams playing well of late but I am not taking much of the Brew Crew's streak...COL , HOU and PITT can the BATS get any colder. Fla can hit and there SP Bush realy struggles on the road in his career. Nolasco has been extremely soldi when he is not facing the METS or pitching during the day. Fading a 23-37 road team against a 500 home club who has the better SP.
8PM's
Under 5 -102 First 5 INN StL-ChiC(unit)
Suppan has been real solid at home this year and poor away which is a change for him. Last year he wa sreal solid against CHI but this yr times have changed. Mateo has impressed me with his early starts and was able to log 7 innings last time out. Truth is both lineups very relent on the long ball for runs right now and hoping the SP are strong first two trips thru the order.
Pre Season NFL
NYG -4.5 -106 (3units)
Jumped the gun earlier thinking this would never go down . Now that it has I am scared and curious as to why. NYG starter's for 3 quarters should cause hell but maybe its the NYJ preseason mystic Or the fact the jets probably really take this game much more serious.
Eagles -3-105 (3units)
Thinking they will continue to impress me.
Vikes -2.5 -105 (unit)
8:30 Starts
Rangers +110 (unit)
- Oakland only 6-7 against Texas which isnt very good when you see there record in divisional games. Zito IMO isnt that sharp lately and has really struggled more then not past 10 starts vs Texas especally in Texas. Just love the RH bats the Rangers can throw at you. The pen is weaker in Oakland now as well.
Over 9.5 -106 Min and ChiW(unit)
Like the fact that despite the over being 5-1 in Chicago and this matchup going over last meeting they still managed to drop the total a 1/2 run. Can Radke 'fool' CHI in consecutive starts? Are both lineups heating up like I think they are? IS JAvy going to continue his career long struggle vs Minny? many questions to be answered worth a roll of the dice IMO...
9PM starts
Rockies -151 (5units)
-see earlier comments
9:40 starts
Diamondbacks +110 (7units) , ARL +208 (unit) and over 9 -125(3units)
First why the over cause it almost doesnt make sense. LAD scored 4 times in SD and Vargas is pitching well of late. Except he get srun support and is inconsitent at home see a 15-6 over record. Then we have MAddux who just dont pitch well in Zona or versus Zona.
Why the play? LAD is 1-8 last 9 in Zona and 6-14 Last 20 versus them. Maddux is 1-9 in his career vs them and his team is just 2-9 last 10 starts vs them(0-5 near 6 ERA @ BOP/Chase). Simply put Maddux had some good starts after his trade but last outing wasnt so good and his away splits are medicore.LAD offense looking
Last...
Giants -108 (3units)
Under 5 -115 First 5 Innings Seattle(unit)
That;s it and Good nite
At first glance I didnt see all that much I liked. Now a few hours deep and I am uncovering some things I do see a valueable. So going to try and do best to update you guys as to what I am thinking. Wont try and fnalize till half hour before start times. Just like that little extra time to adjust my unit sizes. Last 2 days I have had such little free time to 'cap' games and post its been extremely detrimental to my performance. If you asked me my fav plays of the past 2 days I would have said probably the only 4 winners I picked...Hous (wed afternoon) , Pitt and Under 10 NYM last nite along with the Yanks under. I have done a poor job spreading my units around(and "gamnling on marginal ideas') but I guess the good news is after an amazing Tuesday worst case is I gave back a few 'units'. It happens , rather it be because of my poor judgement rather then poor capping. I NEED to recap and update the past 2 days...wont happen till later on!
Here we go:
Under 10-123 Orioles and TB (5 units)
Orioles -170(unit)
This has to look like a strange play to some. Cabrera and Hammel and you want to play an Under? Well my first comment is I truly have no idea what to expect out of Hammel. I know he is a solid prospect who made a couple starts in April , one against BALT his ML debut where he was shelled. Hopely that fuels him here. He was sent down and posted average AAA numbers but a very solid BBto K ratio and K/per 9 inning ratio. Really cant see if he progressed as the yr went on.
Tist has me excited since Balt last 4 games really not hitting. It's understandable that when Tor is trying to avoid a sweep and they send out HAlladay that he shuts down there lineup . Its understandable Silva gets smacked around and the pen keeps BALT in check. Can anyone explain they lack of offense the past 2 games against strong prospects Matt Garza and Boof Boonser?? I mean 3 runs in 2 games at home....that leaves a great deal of hope for me with young Hammel.
Then we have TB, can someone explain to me when there PEN got so solid?? That pen did a wonderful job against TEXAS past 4 days. The key is the Devil Rays catastrophic collapse on the road dropping 15 of there last 16 all since the BREAK!. That one win a 19-7 trouncing of my Yanks. Now the sick part is 19 runs that day and 30 runs total the other 15 games. The MATH genius that I am realizes that 2 runs per but worse is the startling consistency they have shown.
Runs per game breakdown
@ Sea 4 ,1,0
@ Oak 2,3,1
@NYY 2,19, 0
@Minn 4,2,1,3
@LAA 5,2,0
Now Cabrera comes in off his best start of the year and lets face it we know Daniel Cabrera himself is his own worst enemy. Why? Simple command and control issues!! Last start vs TB he had 10 K's but 9 BB's! He has always been decent against TB in his career. This new TB lineup is real thin and YOUNG. Gomes is probably OUT and Branyan just traded to SD. We look okay with Baldelli , Upton and Crawford but 4 thru 9 is interesting.....Norton , Navarro , Lee , Cantu (slumping @ 244), Hollins and the dude with a Z -last name I cant remember right now. Balts pen also was fairly solid in the Minn series but here 's to hoping Cabrera can give us 7 tonite! Unfortunately dont have any UMPIRE INFO!
Rockies -151 (5units )
Again am I crazy? Colorado who has looked like ass dropping all those road games. Here's what I realized. Jeff Francis has quietly been awesome at Coors this season. You look and see 2.96 ERA at home but a 1.00 WHIP and only 46 hits in 70 innings!!! Damn! The scary part is he really buckled down after his 1st two poor starts in April winning 7 of the past 9 there and after the shaky start vs Texas. Past four at home 2 runs in 7 2/3 inn, 2 er (4runs ) in 7 inn(vs COL), complete game shutout and 5 inning 1hit no run performance!! Thompson does own 2 solid 6 inn starts versus COL thi syr allowing 3 runs but his road numbers arent so good. He was solid at Coors but his other starts were all 5 innings and one was 4 innings. A 1.73 WHIP and 5.88 ERA isnt impressing anyone.
SD is 13-15 vs LHP but really struggling of late verus them . SD won 1-0 vs Hendrickson and lost 5-3 vs Lowry on the recent homestand . Since the bvreak the only LHP they have hit wel is Hendrickson in Dodger LAnd were he has been awful!! This is all about SP for me as both have solid pens and soft offenses. Colorado has a significant edge with Francis who had his string of 6 straight starts with 7 + innings snapped in NY due to a bad 6th inning. LAD is also just 27-35 away this season and 1-5 in Zona .
7PM starts:
Indians +110 (unit)
-Based on what I see as a slumping Tiger lineup vs LHP and Sowers excellent pitching at home.
Under 5 First 5 INN DET-CLE -117 (unit)
-see Bondermans away splits and Sowers starts at home since his ML debut.
Under 8.5 -120 Pitt-Hou(unit)
-Two SP who dont get much run support. Clemens is really tough on Pitt dont look at the SEPT 05 start he was dead tired and Santos has his moments where he gives you 5 or 6 solid innings...lets face it Houston isnt hitting much lately.
Under9.5 -130 Philly and NYM (unit)
- Wolf was showing improvement till his poor outing last time out BUT owns good numbers vs NY. Also NY not hitting LH that well lately. Bannister was solid early in the season and has had more then enough time to get bakc in a groove in the minors. Cool damp nite as well.
Orioles -170 (unit)
Under 10 -123 Balt-tb (5units)
-see earlier comments
7:35 starts:
Over 9.5 -120 Wash and Atl(unit)
Really following a trend where when WASH opposes a LH starter recently the game is extremely high scoring. Ortiz has been rocked in 4 career starts vs ATL of 6 but the two solid ones have been at ATL which is cause for concern. James has been solid but a tad inconsistent and I am hoping that the second time around WASH gets better AB's off him and really both pens are inconsistent as well. The situation plays out where WASH hits better off LH's and ATL against RH's...
Marlins -118 (unit) , -1.5 runs +183(unit) , First 5 INN -116 (unit)
Basically both teams playing well of late but I am not taking much of the Brew Crew's streak...COL , HOU and PITT can the BATS get any colder. Fla can hit and there SP Bush realy struggles on the road in his career. Nolasco has been extremely soldi when he is not facing the METS or pitching during the day. Fading a 23-37 road team against a 500 home club who has the better SP.
8PM's
Under 5 -102 First 5 INN StL-ChiC(unit)
Suppan has been real solid at home this year and poor away which is a change for him. Last year he wa sreal solid against CHI but this yr times have changed. Mateo has impressed me with his early starts and was able to log 7 innings last time out. Truth is both lineups very relent on the long ball for runs right now and hoping the SP are strong first two trips thru the order.
Pre Season NFL
NYG -4.5 -106 (3units)
Jumped the gun earlier thinking this would never go down . Now that it has I am scared and curious as to why. NYG starter's for 3 quarters should cause hell but maybe its the NYJ preseason mystic Or the fact the jets probably really take this game much more serious.
Eagles -3-105 (3units)
Thinking they will continue to impress me.
Vikes -2.5 -105 (unit)
8:30 Starts
Rangers +110 (unit)
- Oakland only 6-7 against Texas which isnt very good when you see there record in divisional games. Zito IMO isnt that sharp lately and has really struggled more then not past 10 starts vs Texas especally in Texas. Just love the RH bats the Rangers can throw at you. The pen is weaker in Oakland now as well.
Over 9.5 -106 Min and ChiW(unit)
Like the fact that despite the over being 5-1 in Chicago and this matchup going over last meeting they still managed to drop the total a 1/2 run. Can Radke 'fool' CHI in consecutive starts? Are both lineups heating up like I think they are? IS JAvy going to continue his career long struggle vs Minny? many questions to be answered worth a roll of the dice IMO...
9PM starts
Rockies -151 (5units)
-see earlier comments
9:40 starts
Diamondbacks +110 (7units) , ARL +208 (unit) and over 9 -125(3units)
First why the over cause it almost doesnt make sense. LAD scored 4 times in SD and Vargas is pitching well of late. Except he get srun support and is inconsitent at home see a 15-6 over record. Then we have MAddux who just dont pitch well in Zona or versus Zona.
Why the play? LAD is 1-8 last 9 in Zona and 6-14 Last 20 versus them. Maddux is 1-9 in his career vs them and his team is just 2-9 last 10 starts vs them(0-5 near 6 ERA @ BOP/Chase). Simply put Maddux had some good starts after his trade but last outing wasnt so good and his away splits are medicore.LAD offense looking
Last...
Giants -108 (3units)
Under 5 -115 First 5 Innings Seattle(unit)
That;s it and Good nite
Thursday, August 24, 2006
Thursday Thoughts
Wow! What a disaster last nite was. Everything that could go wrong , did! Honestly I feel the need to apology cause I think with limited time I rushed my decisions and it showed. You can see early on my AL leans all hit and would have paid nicely. That's life. There is ALOT of work that goes on behind this and even I msut remind myself of that. Again sorry for that fiasco!
I wil recap when I have a moment. Have to run out and will post the nite slate around 4 or 5 PM. Will be heading to the Mets game @ Shea tonite(leaning heavy on that under 10 and StL)
Day Games
Tigers -116 (1unit)
What a tough matchup and rematch from 7 /18 when Garland won 7-1 thanks to Robertson falling apart in the 6th and7th innings. It's probably a definite Thome will miss this one. What I see is a White Sox team that just isnt hitting LHP very well of late. Robertson has been consistent al year and especially at home. Garland has been up and down but real solid past 2 outings which is a concern. Also Garland has led Chitown to wins in all 8 of his day starts despit a high (near 6 ) ERA! At first glance I was thinking the under but it dropped from 9.5 to 9 and last meeting it was 10 Und -120. So the value has somewhat ben taken out. Also as I said Garland poor day splits means this could very easily be a 5-4 game.
Rockies +122(1unit)
I am asking myself why back a team who has dropped 9 of 10 away and 17 of 22 while scoring 3 runs or less in 15 of them. Its about Josh Fogg , who would have thunk that? Fogg as pitrched solid ball vs MILW in his career including a 1-0 defeat at Coors this year and has pitched solid at Miller Park. Both offenses are strugling just Colorado has taken it to a new level. Ohka is somewhat inconsistent but usely solid at home. Tough game just think COL really needs this one . That doesnt mean they will win but its a huge game for them right now. Really like the UNDER 8.5 +104 as well but passed.
Cubbies -103 (1unit)
Zambrano throwing the ball well past few and really was strong against Philly last year 17 innings 1 run. Lets be honest CHI has sent out Rich Hill, Ryan O'Maley and Angel Guzman all talented youngsters but nothing in the realmof Zambrano. HAmels has been extremely strong past 5 starts but he has faltered in day starts and dropped 3 of away for his Phils. Chicago facing a LHP is a huge concern but I look for Ramirez and Murton to be the key here. Suprisingly I think the over 7.5 -105 looks interesting. First you have questionable pens. Second youhave Hamels getting tremndous run support leading to a 11-4 over record and Zambrano hasnt been his sharpest in day games.
Act II: Night Games
Wow , agin short on time and I was a big puss and missed some ez plays...Phills and Cubs over plus I was lovin Cubbies but sacred.
Pirates -115 (7units) & Over 9 -116 (unit)
For some reason I really like Pitt here. Could it be the 32-30 home record or Houston 26-36 away record? The scary part of this play is the fact Houston is something liek 16-10 vs LH and Pitt 8-33 , yes Pitt is 8-33 vs LHP!!! Worse they lost 9 straight at home when a LH started and are just 4-14 at home vs LHP. Good news for the over though they hit 312 at home vs LH and the over is 11-6-1 against LH's at home. There lineup is filled with RHB who hit LH well NAdy 346 , Sanchez 471 , J.Wilson 302 , Bay 313 and Paulino 341. Wandy Rodriguez justseems lost right now and didnt do anything in his call iup start from AAA to change my opinion. The good news is he has really struggled against RHB's this year. Well Hou 212 L10 against LH and Pitt 320. Hopefully Pitt's momentum carries over from winning past 2 down in ATL!
Under 10 -113 StL and NYM (7units) & StL +107(3units)
The scary part is STL hits 296 on the road vs LHP and is facing journeyman DAve Williams. Looking deeper in 5 starts against LH since the Break the Cards are 0-5 worse is they have been shutout twice , scored 1,3,and 4 in the others. Williams was decent in his Met debut vs the weak hitting Rockies and went 5 2/3 innings allowing 3 runs but they had just 1 thru 5 innings. Marquis is so unpredicatble its ridiculous to try BUT he is either real solid or awful not much in bewteen. MArquis has been pretty good past 2 times out but has struggled allowing 4hrs of just 6 hits. BAck in MAy Marquis was real solid against NY going 7 2/3 innings allowing 3 runs. Last year he was excellent vs NYM in two starts, 15 INN 11H 4r 3er. Marquis a native Staten Islander is probably always extremely focused when facing hsi hometown club. Williams actually has faced StL twice this season and four times last year.
Dave Williams (R) Previous Starts vs. St. Louis where 6 inn 2er , 6 inn 3er (twice) and 6 inn 5run. This yr rocked at STL 6runs in 3 INN but rebounded with 6 2/3 and 2 runs. The starts he has made in his home parks this yr have been real solid.
Ed Rapuano behind the dish 17-10 Under and 8.50 runs per!! Also small home favs (under 140) are 6-18 when he calls the game.
Really no opinion on SF and Cincy. Milton has been much better away as a RED and Hennessey falls into the same category.
AL
Los Angeles Angels -138(unit)
Manny should be OUT here. Beckett has really struggled on the road nad had no command last time out. Jered Weaver has delivered more then promised and looking for some revenge after Boston won against him.
Yankees -155 (3units)
Scary ROAD Chalk. Randy has led NY to wins in his last 4 starts , L5 away and 8 of 9 away. He lost a 3-2 gem earlier to Meche and went 8 strong. Last year he pitched well in 2 starts vs Sea allowing 3 runs in 15 innings (one start at Safeco). he is 94-37 lifetime in AUGUST with 16 shutouts .
Washburn has been real solid vs NY but this yr LHB are really a concern for him. The new Yankee lineup is very LH heavy and that 306 BAA and 1.67 WHIP could spell trouble. Seattle only 254 against LH and NY 283 but ARod might sit again. NY is 13-7 away vs LHP. Basically Sea is in a major funk and NY is on fire. NYY 16-7 L23 meetings.
Under 9 -109 NYY and Sea(3units)
Both SP with success against there opponents. Jeff Nelson behind the dish is 17-8 under with 9.15 per game. Silly stat of the day Sea 25-9 under on Thursdays prev 34 games.
Royals +163 (unit)
Redman seems to be soldi when he faces Cleveland and Sabathis seems to struggle at KAuffman Stadium. KC is hitting LH much better recently then Cleveland. Lets see if they can make up for the fiasco yesterday.
Over 9 -111 Texas and TB (3units)& Over 5 -115 First 5 INN (unit)
Leaned on BALT , Under KC
Pre Season NFL
Carolina -4.5 -108 (unit)
GL
Wow! What a disaster last nite was. Everything that could go wrong , did! Honestly I feel the need to apology cause I think with limited time I rushed my decisions and it showed. You can see early on my AL leans all hit and would have paid nicely. That's life. There is ALOT of work that goes on behind this and even I msut remind myself of that. Again sorry for that fiasco!
I wil recap when I have a moment. Have to run out and will post the nite slate around 4 or 5 PM. Will be heading to the Mets game @ Shea tonite(leaning heavy on that under 10 and StL)
Day Games
Tigers -116 (1unit)
What a tough matchup and rematch from 7 /18 when Garland won 7-1 thanks to Robertson falling apart in the 6th and7th innings. It's probably a definite Thome will miss this one. What I see is a White Sox team that just isnt hitting LHP very well of late. Robertson has been consistent al year and especially at home. Garland has been up and down but real solid past 2 outings which is a concern. Also Garland has led Chitown to wins in all 8 of his day starts despit a high (near 6 ) ERA! At first glance I was thinking the under but it dropped from 9.5 to 9 and last meeting it was 10 Und -120. So the value has somewhat ben taken out. Also as I said Garland poor day splits means this could very easily be a 5-4 game.
Rockies +122(1unit)
I am asking myself why back a team who has dropped 9 of 10 away and 17 of 22 while scoring 3 runs or less in 15 of them. Its about Josh Fogg , who would have thunk that? Fogg as pitrched solid ball vs MILW in his career including a 1-0 defeat at Coors this year and has pitched solid at Miller Park. Both offenses are strugling just Colorado has taken it to a new level. Ohka is somewhat inconsistent but usely solid at home. Tough game just think COL really needs this one . That doesnt mean they will win but its a huge game for them right now. Really like the UNDER 8.5 +104 as well but passed.
Cubbies -103 (1unit)
Zambrano throwing the ball well past few and really was strong against Philly last year 17 innings 1 run. Lets be honest CHI has sent out Rich Hill, Ryan O'Maley and Angel Guzman all talented youngsters but nothing in the realmof Zambrano. HAmels has been extremely strong past 5 starts but he has faltered in day starts and dropped 3 of away for his Phils. Chicago facing a LHP is a huge concern but I look for Ramirez and Murton to be the key here. Suprisingly I think the over 7.5 -105 looks interesting. First you have questionable pens. Second youhave Hamels getting tremndous run support leading to a 11-4 over record and Zambrano hasnt been his sharpest in day games.
Act II: Night Games
Wow , agin short on time and I was a big puss and missed some ez plays...Phills and Cubs over plus I was lovin Cubbies but sacred.
Pirates -115 (7units) & Over 9 -116 (unit)
For some reason I really like Pitt here. Could it be the 32-30 home record or Houston 26-36 away record? The scary part of this play is the fact Houston is something liek 16-10 vs LH and Pitt 8-33 , yes Pitt is 8-33 vs LHP!!! Worse they lost 9 straight at home when a LH started and are just 4-14 at home vs LHP. Good news for the over though they hit 312 at home vs LH and the over is 11-6-1 against LH's at home. There lineup is filled with RHB who hit LH well NAdy 346 , Sanchez 471 , J.Wilson 302 , Bay 313 and Paulino 341. Wandy Rodriguez justseems lost right now and didnt do anything in his call iup start from AAA to change my opinion. The good news is he has really struggled against RHB's this year. Well Hou 212 L10 against LH and Pitt 320. Hopefully Pitt's momentum carries over from winning past 2 down in ATL!
Under 10 -113 StL and NYM (7units) & StL +107(3units)
The scary part is STL hits 296 on the road vs LHP and is facing journeyman DAve Williams. Looking deeper in 5 starts against LH since the Break the Cards are 0-5 worse is they have been shutout twice , scored 1,3,and 4 in the others. Williams was decent in his Met debut vs the weak hitting Rockies and went 5 2/3 innings allowing 3 runs but they had just 1 thru 5 innings. Marquis is so unpredicatble its ridiculous to try BUT he is either real solid or awful not much in bewteen. MArquis has been pretty good past 2 times out but has struggled allowing 4hrs of just 6 hits. BAck in MAy Marquis was real solid against NY going 7 2/3 innings allowing 3 runs. Last year he was excellent vs NYM in two starts, 15 INN 11H 4r 3er. Marquis a native Staten Islander is probably always extremely focused when facing hsi hometown club. Williams actually has faced StL twice this season and four times last year.
Dave Williams (R) Previous Starts vs. St. Louis where 6 inn 2er , 6 inn 3er (twice) and 6 inn 5run. This yr rocked at STL 6runs in 3 INN but rebounded with 6 2/3 and 2 runs. The starts he has made in his home parks this yr have been real solid.
Ed Rapuano behind the dish 17-10 Under and 8.50 runs per!! Also small home favs (under 140) are 6-18 when he calls the game.
Really no opinion on SF and Cincy. Milton has been much better away as a RED and Hennessey falls into the same category.
AL
Los Angeles Angels -138(unit)
Manny should be OUT here. Beckett has really struggled on the road nad had no command last time out. Jered Weaver has delivered more then promised and looking for some revenge after Boston won against him.
Yankees -155 (3units)
Scary ROAD Chalk. Randy has led NY to wins in his last 4 starts , L5 away and 8 of 9 away. He lost a 3-2 gem earlier to Meche and went 8 strong. Last year he pitched well in 2 starts vs Sea allowing 3 runs in 15 innings (one start at Safeco). he is 94-37 lifetime in AUGUST with 16 shutouts .
Washburn has been real solid vs NY but this yr LHB are really a concern for him. The new Yankee lineup is very LH heavy and that 306 BAA and 1.67 WHIP could spell trouble. Seattle only 254 against LH and NY 283 but ARod might sit again. NY is 13-7 away vs LHP. Basically Sea is in a major funk and NY is on fire. NYY 16-7 L23 meetings.
Under 9 -109 NYY and Sea(3units)
Both SP with success against there opponents. Jeff Nelson behind the dish is 17-8 under with 9.15 per game. Silly stat of the day Sea 25-9 under on Thursdays prev 34 games.
Royals +163 (unit)
Redman seems to be soldi when he faces Cleveland and Sabathis seems to struggle at KAuffman Stadium. KC is hitting LH much better recently then Cleveland. Lets see if they can make up for the fiasco yesterday.
Over 9 -111 Texas and TB (3units)& Over 5 -115 First 5 INN (unit)
Leaned on BALT , Under KC
Pre Season NFL
Carolina -4.5 -108 (unit)
GL
Wednesday, August 23, 2006
Wednesday Thoughts
We start our day off with a RECAP of the Tuesday post:
Orioles -106 (5units) Won 6-3
Orioles 1st 5 Innings -110(3units) Led 5-1
Tigers -114(3units) Won 4-1
Under 9.5 DET -113(1 unit) 4-1 final
Blue Jays -147 (7units) Won 4-3 , sorry 10JQKA!
Over 8 TB and Texas -103 (5units) PUSH
KC +126 (1unit) Won 5-2
KC -1.5 +220 (1unit) Won 5-2
NYY -141 (unit) Lost 6-5
Under 10 +102 NYY and Sea (1unit) Lost , tied at 5 .
Astros +110 (1unit) Lost 14-0 , best way to lose never close!
Under 9 -103 Stl and NYM (1unit) Lost , 8-7 Final
Brewers -134 (3units) Won 4-1
Under 10 Cubs and Phils-112 (5 Units) Won , 6-3 Final
Padres -151 (7units)Won 1-0
Yesterday 10-4-1 +33.02 Units
7 Units (2-0 +14.)
5 Units (2-0-1 +10.)
3 Units (3-0 +9.)
1 Unit (3-4 +0.02 )
WED Day GAmes:
Astros -135 now -150( 5 units)
Even I will keep this simple. You have Oswalt pitching on extended rest due to a bruised hand a mild concern for me. Not the hand really more the long layoff bewteen starts . So its Oswalt the ACE of the staff (co -ace whatever) facing a spot starter who hadnt pitched(started) in the majors in 5 season who happens to be LH which Houston actually hits well against when they are on the road. Oh yeah Oswalt is 15-1 lifetime vs Cincy and Pitt hit Michalak hard last time out plus his grandmother passed away .
Houston looked like shit today and should be ready here after a 14-0 trouncing. Again real simple logic a #1 SP facing barely a #5 SP ....Houstons pen is bad but Cincy's is really shorthanded due to injuries. Houston will answer the bell IMO.......
Also Houston 16-10 against LHP and 17-19 in day games but Cincy just 22-30 in day games as compared to 44-31 at nite. Freel on the bench is a plus IMO as well. Silly trend note Hou 5-1 as road chalk from 125 to 150 and Cincy 1-6 as a dog in that range.
If the CHALK concerns you I dont have a problem laying -1.5 RUNS @ +105. However in the long run I dont see the value of doing that in this type situation. All you are doing is reducing your vig and your chances of winning there isnt a better payout. If I win and I make these decisions thinking I will win I get 100 x 5 or lose pay 150 x 5. The RL pays you 105 x 5 to risk 100 x 5.....generally NOT a smart decision.
GL- more to come but probably not many
Night Edition
Houston took the first one 7-3 and you ever just feel good about something....well I do concerning my comments about the Cincy pen. Short on time so quick comments only..
Orioles -111 (5units)
The Orioles are just playing solid baseball and have hit RHP extremely well all season long at Camden. Garza is a young pitcher with an extremely high ceiling who is getting accustomed to the majors. His ML debut he was said to be visibly nervous and his performance was POOR. The next time out he was much better but pulled after 5 innings. So the question becomes do they have a short leash with the kid expecying only 5 or 6 innings and how will he handle his 1st road start?? The lack of innings isnt a huge concern because Minny pen is so solid but anytime IMO you depend on your pen for 4 innings your looking for trouble.
Lopez has continually improved and I believed turned in about 6 or 7 real solid starts at Camden. He pitched well in Minny recently and versus these guys last season. As I stated yesterday the O's pen ...NOT SO GOOD outside Ray but the good news is Lopez has gone into the 7th and 8 th innings in all but 1 of those recent home outings.
Minny scored 4 or less in 8 of 12 (5,7,7,7, in the others). Lopez last 7 starts at home: O's are 5-2 the losses Balt scored 1 and 0 runs. They spanned 48 1/3 innings 49 hits 18 runs 17 earned 5BB 30K's 7 Hrs(4 in 1 start vs NYY).
Tigers -107 (1unit)
The White Sox just continue there major offensive funk!! Miner isnt someone I trust but for some reason he has been sharpest in his nite starts 6-1 low 3 ERA. Garcia has defeated DET 3x this year and recently beat Miner in Chi. I just dont see Chi putting many runs up early and 7th-9th innings the Tigers have a huge edge.
Under 10.5 -108 KC and KC +!33 (1unit each)
Really just think this is basically the same setup as yesterday. So reread my thoughts from Tuesday.
Havent looked at the late starts yet and for those who cared leaned Oakland but didnt play , leaned under First 5 TB and TB but stayed away.
NL
Nationals +126(1unit)
Personally I am concerned Scott Olsen is hitting the wall lately. Fla's middle relief is inconsistent and not to be counted on IMO. The NAts hit LHP very well and nearly 280 on the road. Armas has struggled vs FLA and away recently but IMO is pitching well of late.
Under 9.5 +105 STl And NYM (3units)
Traschel is pitching fairly well recently and I could see a 6 inning 3 run stint and then turning it over to a bullpen throwing very well. Mulder is the wildcard here , what can we expect?? One thing for sure is the NYM are struggling vs LHP lately see Traber HAmels and Wolf...Not to mention a 255 BAA at home vs LHP and Wrights sluggish 2nd H. When healthy Mulder looked great earlier in May vs NY but again where is he at now??
Under 8.5 -110 Atla and Pitt (1unit)
Hudson is back to his old form IMO. Snell has been real solid away all year. The Pirates haven't hit much on the road , in previous trips to Atlanta, and just all yr in general...4-3 game
Over 4.5 +111 Milw and Col First 5 innings (unit)
Kim has a 7++ERA away and Sheets hasnt looked good past few outings. BAsically hoping one guys gets hit real hard...
Thats it for now , maybe more later....Have a Hoops game.
We start our day off with a RECAP of the Tuesday post:
Orioles -106 (5units) Won 6-3
Orioles 1st 5 Innings -110(3units) Led 5-1
Tigers -114(3units) Won 4-1
Under 9.5 DET -113(1 unit) 4-1 final
Blue Jays -147 (7units) Won 4-3 , sorry 10JQKA!
Over 8 TB and Texas -103 (5units) PUSH
KC +126 (1unit) Won 5-2
KC -1.5 +220 (1unit) Won 5-2
NYY -141 (unit) Lost 6-5
Under 10 +102 NYY and Sea (1unit) Lost , tied at 5 .
Astros +110 (1unit) Lost 14-0 , best way to lose never close!
Under 9 -103 Stl and NYM (1unit) Lost , 8-7 Final
Brewers -134 (3units) Won 4-1
Under 10 Cubs and Phils-112 (5 Units) Won , 6-3 Final
Padres -151 (7units)Won 1-0
Yesterday 10-4-1 +33.02 Units
7 Units (2-0 +14.)
5 Units (2-0-1 +10.)
3 Units (3-0 +9.)
1 Unit (3-4 +0.02 )
WED Day GAmes:
Astros -135 now -150( 5 units)
Even I will keep this simple. You have Oswalt pitching on extended rest due to a bruised hand a mild concern for me. Not the hand really more the long layoff bewteen starts . So its Oswalt the ACE of the staff (co -ace whatever) facing a spot starter who hadnt pitched(started) in the majors in 5 season who happens to be LH which Houston actually hits well against when they are on the road. Oh yeah Oswalt is 15-1 lifetime vs Cincy and Pitt hit Michalak hard last time out plus his grandmother passed away .
Houston looked like shit today and should be ready here after a 14-0 trouncing. Again real simple logic a #1 SP facing barely a #5 SP ....Houstons pen is bad but Cincy's is really shorthanded due to injuries. Houston will answer the bell IMO.......
Also Houston 16-10 against LHP and 17-19 in day games but Cincy just 22-30 in day games as compared to 44-31 at nite. Freel on the bench is a plus IMO as well. Silly trend note Hou 5-1 as road chalk from 125 to 150 and Cincy 1-6 as a dog in that range.
If the CHALK concerns you I dont have a problem laying -1.5 RUNS @ +105. However in the long run I dont see the value of doing that in this type situation. All you are doing is reducing your vig and your chances of winning there isnt a better payout. If I win and I make these decisions thinking I will win I get 100 x 5 or lose pay 150 x 5. The RL pays you 105 x 5 to risk 100 x 5.....generally NOT a smart decision.
GL- more to come but probably not many
Night Edition
Houston took the first one 7-3 and you ever just feel good about something....well I do concerning my comments about the Cincy pen. Short on time so quick comments only..
Orioles -111 (5units)
The Orioles are just playing solid baseball and have hit RHP extremely well all season long at Camden. Garza is a young pitcher with an extremely high ceiling who is getting accustomed to the majors. His ML debut he was said to be visibly nervous and his performance was POOR. The next time out he was much better but pulled after 5 innings. So the question becomes do they have a short leash with the kid expecying only 5 or 6 innings and how will he handle his 1st road start?? The lack of innings isnt a huge concern because Minny pen is so solid but anytime IMO you depend on your pen for 4 innings your looking for trouble.
Lopez has continually improved and I believed turned in about 6 or 7 real solid starts at Camden. He pitched well in Minny recently and versus these guys last season. As I stated yesterday the O's pen ...NOT SO GOOD outside Ray but the good news is Lopez has gone into the 7th and 8 th innings in all but 1 of those recent home outings.
Minny scored 4 or less in 8 of 12 (5,7,7,7, in the others). Lopez last 7 starts at home: O's are 5-2 the losses Balt scored 1 and 0 runs. They spanned 48 1/3 innings 49 hits 18 runs 17 earned 5BB 30K's 7 Hrs(4 in 1 start vs NYY).
Tigers -107 (1unit)
The White Sox just continue there major offensive funk!! Miner isnt someone I trust but for some reason he has been sharpest in his nite starts 6-1 low 3 ERA. Garcia has defeated DET 3x this year and recently beat Miner in Chi. I just dont see Chi putting many runs up early and 7th-9th innings the Tigers have a huge edge.
Under 10.5 -108 KC and KC +!33 (1unit each)
Really just think this is basically the same setup as yesterday. So reread my thoughts from Tuesday.
Havent looked at the late starts yet and for those who cared leaned Oakland but didnt play , leaned under First 5 TB and TB but stayed away.
NL
Nationals +126(1unit)
Personally I am concerned Scott Olsen is hitting the wall lately. Fla's middle relief is inconsistent and not to be counted on IMO. The NAts hit LHP very well and nearly 280 on the road. Armas has struggled vs FLA and away recently but IMO is pitching well of late.
Under 9.5 +105 STl And NYM (3units)
Traschel is pitching fairly well recently and I could see a 6 inning 3 run stint and then turning it over to a bullpen throwing very well. Mulder is the wildcard here , what can we expect?? One thing for sure is the NYM are struggling vs LHP lately see Traber HAmels and Wolf...Not to mention a 255 BAA at home vs LHP and Wrights sluggish 2nd H. When healthy Mulder looked great earlier in May vs NY but again where is he at now??
Under 8.5 -110 Atla and Pitt (1unit)
Hudson is back to his old form IMO. Snell has been real solid away all year. The Pirates haven't hit much on the road , in previous trips to Atlanta, and just all yr in general...4-3 game
Over 4.5 +111 Milw and Col First 5 innings (unit)
Kim has a 7++ERA away and Sheets hasnt looked good past few outings. BAsically hoping one guys gets hit real hard...
Thats it for now , maybe more later....Have a Hoops game.
Monday, August 21, 2006
Tuesday Thoughts
To make this blog run smoother I think I should do two things. First start the post off with a recap of the previous day and second use a UNIT system to rank my plays . So I will use a system that has 1 unit , 3 unit , 5 unit , 7 unit and 10 unit plays.
Here we go:
Orioles -106 (5units) now -108 & 1st 5 Innings -110 (3units)now-113
First we have to take a look at the Twinkies SP Carlos Silva. Yes, the guy has shown some imrovement but how could he get worse? This year opps hit .333 against him whether they are LH or RH!! The Road numbers are eye-popping in 10 starts ( 3 relief apps) 51 1/3 innings allowing 90hits 51 runs (48 er) 11BB 23K's and 15 Hrs. It gets worse when you look at his starts in fresh air (outdoors splits)..38 2/3 Innings 72 hits 42 runs (40er) 14Hrs 8BB 14 K's 9.31 ERA 2.25WHIP and .422 BAA!! Amazingly Minny has won 6 of his last 7 starts since the break including all 3 road starts. As I said he really isnt pitching better though as he got 35 RUNS of support in those 3 games . The numbers are 15 2/3 innings 29 hits , 12 runs (11er) 3Hrs 3 BB 5 Ks in 3 starts. How bout 62 runs in the 6 wins and shutout in the loss by a LHP!! Now you see my angle.....Loewen is inconsistent like most youngsters but has been fairly solid at CAmden and even versus the Yankees. Durng there revival Minny punished LHP but with White out again they have struggled lately vs LH's. Last 4 starts vs LHP were Cliff Lee 5 inn 8H 2 R 1BB 4 K , Downs 5 Inn 4 H 0R 1BB 1 K and 3 scoreless innings by LH relievers , Lilly 6 inn 3 H 0 R 2 BB 3 K and scoreless INN by a LH reliever , Robertson(White played) 7INN 7 H 3 R 3 BB 2 K and ZERO Hr's in those games. Not the offesne Silva is used to getting and certainly alot less then he needs looking at previous starts.
Orioles hit .297 at home versus RHP and have played extremely well past 6 games vs Boston and NYY. A bullpen meltdown away from sweeping the Yanks at the Stadium and a CY Young stopper away from embarassingly sweeping the Jays. Minny only .257 away vs LHP. Now Loewen in 6 starts at home has faced NYY(2) , Oak , wash , Sea , Tor. Really in only two of those did he struggle somewhat and both times vs Sea and Tor it happened in the 6th and 7th innings. He was shutting out Seattle but they touched him for 5 runs in the 6th and 7th and vs Tor he left with the bases loaded and 1 out but all 3 inherited scored(of the 5 he allowed that day). So there is definite confidence in this kid thru 5 innings but he wavers in the 6th and on and Balts pen isnt so good and not nearly as solid as Minnys. So we will have to look at playing Balt First 5 Innings as well(PK -105).
Tigers -114 (3units) Under 9.5 -113 (1unit)
Well as you can see the total moved alot from Over -110 to under -120 which makes me soften my stance on it somewhat. As I really like it for 3 units but I hate feeling the whole free world will be making that play and no one will take the over.
Like DET cause of a few things , Rogers has been solid at home winning 9 of 11 starts and pitching extremely well vs Chicago this season and in recent seasons. The White Sox lineup is in a major funk outside of Konerko and maybe even Citron and Ozuna in limited roles. he rest of the guys are struggling some. Rogers has had good indivual sucess against this CHI lineup as Konerko is just 8 of 31 against him with one HR this season. Like that Rogers has allowed just 3 XBH in 3 starts versus them as well. Both SP have had there struggles lately but Rogers seems to be improving more then Buerhle who has had his road woes lately. Chi is struggling with LHP while DET really is improving against it lately around 290 L 10 games. Plus there arent mnay slumping Tigers bats. DET gets the edge in the pen as well. Really with CHI not hitting and likely IMO based ob Buerhle's track record away this yr that he allows 4 runs or so and not sure Chi can equal or better that.
Blue Jays -147{7units}
First thing that stands out is Toronto facing a LHP.....327 clip at home! Then I look down a see 8 guys hitting at least 281 against LHP and 6 above .312!! Halsey carer wise allows RH to bat .304 against him but this yr has turned the tables some with RH hitting .269 and LH .302 which could be due to his extensive relief work...as he probably comes out of the pen to face LH and hasnt done well in those spots there fore he was demoted to AAA(just a guess)
Burnett has been solid at home and loks like he is in a grove especially since he pitched well at TB and Minny his past 2 starts. The Jays pen has the edge now as they are pitching well of late and oakland is w/o Street . HE has won 5 of 6 st home and pitchd wel there except versus Philly. It would be great to see the roof closed ashe has been excellent indoors so far but he is tough on RHB which is bad news for Oakland who comes in struggling vs RH.
I find it interesting that Payton , Kendall and Thomas are the only regulars hitting 280 off RHP. A power pitcher like Burnett should keep them in check though. Guys like Chavez 250 , Kielty .234 0Hrs and Swisher .242 21 hrs are struggling with Righties. I expect last nights debacle to be a wakeup call ike it was for DET on Monday not an extension of the A's run.
Over 8 -103 Texas and TB (5units)
Okay an AL game with an 8 TOTAL??? Padilla does pitch well on the road but is still only going to be around a 7 inning -3run type starter and he has received solid run support on teh road. Texas hitting LHP very well lately and yes this is KAzmir but he has thrown just 5 innings twice in the past 2 starts!! Your not getting Kazmir at his peak but the total reflects that. TB is going to be cautious with him at this point and I wouldguess he doesnt make many starts that last more then 6 innings. He has looked good but 87 and 89 pitches are what he has tossed. He gets ZERO run support but the balance i sthat Texas faces the tB pen for 3 or 4 innings . Come on 23 hits and ONLY 7 runs last nite....that has to change!
still working....noticed Orioles are -106 now LOCK it in go both First 5 and game if you want!
Act II:
Royals +126 (1unit) & ARL +220(1unit)
This has been a series where the road team simply cant win and CLE isnt a very good team away from the JAke. There pen is still in disarray and while Lee has been solid he is stil basically a 6 inning SP. He has a 4-0 record @ KC but he hasnt pitched exceptionally just good enough to win. KC has hit LHP well athome (287) and Cle is struggling some against LH now. KC has shown some late inning strength lately and Perez IMO is getting into a groove throwing theball much better . he has a decent start at the JAke under his belt vs these guys and today I think they pullout the WIN.
Under 10 Seattle and NYY +104 & NYY -141 (unit each)
Felt that yesterday NY's bats would continue to cool off and I think the process continues. They face a SP they havent seen backed up by a solid pen. You have to wonder if they will be flathere after flying crosss country and playing @ Fenway. Thing is Seattle is frigid right now and acknowledging there season is over and making changes....they may just be playing out he string! Seattle has scored 13 runs past 6 games and 7 came in game!!
NL
Astros +110(unit)
Yes, they cant hit but Cincy isnt doing much beter lately. While I presently suprised by Lohse NL transformation he has still managed to lose his 3 NL starts despite pitching extremely well. Now that he is favored wouldnt it be funny for he to get shelled and lose........
Under9 -103 Stl and NYM(unit)
Would have been niuce to see this stay at 9. Weaver has pitched better on the road and is doing nicely past few starts due to mechanical changes. MAine has been real solid at especially tough at Shea. Both sport decent pens and banged up lineups....
To make this blog run smoother I think I should do two things. First start the post off with a recap of the previous day and second use a UNIT system to rank my plays . So I will use a system that has 1 unit , 3 unit , 5 unit , 7 unit and 10 unit plays.
Here we go:
Orioles -106 (5units) now -108 & 1st 5 Innings -110 (3units)now-113
First we have to take a look at the Twinkies SP Carlos Silva. Yes, the guy has shown some imrovement but how could he get worse? This year opps hit .333 against him whether they are LH or RH!! The Road numbers are eye-popping in 10 starts ( 3 relief apps) 51 1/3 innings allowing 90hits 51 runs (48 er) 11BB 23K's and 15 Hrs. It gets worse when you look at his starts in fresh air (outdoors splits)..38 2/3 Innings 72 hits 42 runs (40er) 14Hrs 8BB 14 K's 9.31 ERA 2.25WHIP and .422 BAA!! Amazingly Minny has won 6 of his last 7 starts since the break including all 3 road starts. As I said he really isnt pitching better though as he got 35 RUNS of support in those 3 games . The numbers are 15 2/3 innings 29 hits , 12 runs (11er) 3Hrs 3 BB 5 Ks in 3 starts. How bout 62 runs in the 6 wins and shutout in the loss by a LHP!! Now you see my angle.....Loewen is inconsistent like most youngsters but has been fairly solid at CAmden and even versus the Yankees. Durng there revival Minny punished LHP but with White out again they have struggled lately vs LH's. Last 4 starts vs LHP were Cliff Lee 5 inn 8H 2 R 1BB 4 K , Downs 5 Inn 4 H 0R 1BB 1 K and 3 scoreless innings by LH relievers , Lilly 6 inn 3 H 0 R 2 BB 3 K and scoreless INN by a LH reliever , Robertson(White played) 7INN 7 H 3 R 3 BB 2 K and ZERO Hr's in those games. Not the offesne Silva is used to getting and certainly alot less then he needs looking at previous starts.
Orioles hit .297 at home versus RHP and have played extremely well past 6 games vs Boston and NYY. A bullpen meltdown away from sweeping the Yanks at the Stadium and a CY Young stopper away from embarassingly sweeping the Jays. Minny only .257 away vs LHP. Now Loewen in 6 starts at home has faced NYY(2) , Oak , wash , Sea , Tor. Really in only two of those did he struggle somewhat and both times vs Sea and Tor it happened in the 6th and 7th innings. He was shutting out Seattle but they touched him for 5 runs in the 6th and 7th and vs Tor he left with the bases loaded and 1 out but all 3 inherited scored(of the 5 he allowed that day). So there is definite confidence in this kid thru 5 innings but he wavers in the 6th and on and Balts pen isnt so good and not nearly as solid as Minnys. So we will have to look at playing Balt First 5 Innings as well(PK -105).
Tigers -114 (3units) Under 9.5 -113 (1unit)
Well as you can see the total moved alot from Over -110 to under -120 which makes me soften my stance on it somewhat. As I really like it for 3 units but I hate feeling the whole free world will be making that play and no one will take the over.
Like DET cause of a few things , Rogers has been solid at home winning 9 of 11 starts and pitching extremely well vs Chicago this season and in recent seasons. The White Sox lineup is in a major funk outside of Konerko and maybe even Citron and Ozuna in limited roles. he rest of the guys are struggling some. Rogers has had good indivual sucess against this CHI lineup as Konerko is just 8 of 31 against him with one HR this season. Like that Rogers has allowed just 3 XBH in 3 starts versus them as well. Both SP have had there struggles lately but Rogers seems to be improving more then Buerhle who has had his road woes lately. Chi is struggling with LHP while DET really is improving against it lately around 290 L 10 games. Plus there arent mnay slumping Tigers bats. DET gets the edge in the pen as well. Really with CHI not hitting and likely IMO based ob Buerhle's track record away this yr that he allows 4 runs or so and not sure Chi can equal or better that.
Blue Jays -147{7units}
First thing that stands out is Toronto facing a LHP.....327 clip at home! Then I look down a see 8 guys hitting at least 281 against LHP and 6 above .312!! Halsey carer wise allows RH to bat .304 against him but this yr has turned the tables some with RH hitting .269 and LH .302 which could be due to his extensive relief work...as he probably comes out of the pen to face LH and hasnt done well in those spots there fore he was demoted to AAA(just a guess)
Burnett has been solid at home and loks like he is in a grove especially since he pitched well at TB and Minny his past 2 starts. The Jays pen has the edge now as they are pitching well of late and oakland is w/o Street . HE has won 5 of 6 st home and pitchd wel there except versus Philly. It would be great to see the roof closed ashe has been excellent indoors so far but he is tough on RHB which is bad news for Oakland who comes in struggling vs RH.
I find it interesting that Payton , Kendall and Thomas are the only regulars hitting 280 off RHP. A power pitcher like Burnett should keep them in check though. Guys like Chavez 250 , Kielty .234 0Hrs and Swisher .242 21 hrs are struggling with Righties. I expect last nights debacle to be a wakeup call ike it was for DET on Monday not an extension of the A's run.
Over 8 -103 Texas and TB (5units)
Okay an AL game with an 8 TOTAL??? Padilla does pitch well on the road but is still only going to be around a 7 inning -3run type starter and he has received solid run support on teh road. Texas hitting LHP very well lately and yes this is KAzmir but he has thrown just 5 innings twice in the past 2 starts!! Your not getting Kazmir at his peak but the total reflects that. TB is going to be cautious with him at this point and I wouldguess he doesnt make many starts that last more then 6 innings. He has looked good but 87 and 89 pitches are what he has tossed. He gets ZERO run support but the balance i sthat Texas faces the tB pen for 3 or 4 innings . Come on 23 hits and ONLY 7 runs last nite....that has to change!
still working....noticed Orioles are -106 now LOCK it in go both First 5 and game if you want!
Act II:
Royals +126 (1unit) & ARL +220(1unit)
This has been a series where the road team simply cant win and CLE isnt a very good team away from the JAke. There pen is still in disarray and while Lee has been solid he is stil basically a 6 inning SP. He has a 4-0 record @ KC but he hasnt pitched exceptionally just good enough to win. KC has hit LHP well athome (287) and Cle is struggling some against LH now. KC has shown some late inning strength lately and Perez IMO is getting into a groove throwing theball much better . he has a decent start at the JAke under his belt vs these guys and today I think they pullout the WIN.
Under 10 Seattle and NYY +104 & NYY -141 (unit each)
Felt that yesterday NY's bats would continue to cool off and I think the process continues. They face a SP they havent seen backed up by a solid pen. You have to wonder if they will be flathere after flying crosss country and playing @ Fenway. Thing is Seattle is frigid right now and acknowledging there season is over and making changes....they may just be playing out he string! Seattle has scored 13 runs past 6 games and 7 came in game!!
NL
Astros +110(unit)
Yes, they cant hit but Cincy isnt doing much beter lately. While I presently suprised by Lohse NL transformation he has still managed to lose his 3 NL starts despite pitching extremely well. Now that he is favored wouldnt it be funny for he to get shelled and lose........
Under9 -103 Stl and NYM(unit)
Would have been niuce to see this stay at 9. Weaver has pitched better on the road and is doing nicely past few starts due to mechanical changes. MAine has been real solid at especially tough at Shea. Both sport decent pens and banged up lineups....
Act III:
Brewers -134(3units)
Maybe I am a SUCKER but have to like Capunao here in the 7/30 rematch , dont you?? Great track record pitching versus the Rockies and loves his Miller Park. All Cook has done is watch his team lose 13 of his previous 16 starts. Oh yeah they hit 254 away vs LHP....
Under 10 -112 Philly and Chicago(5units)
Again this screams out at me. We know Chicago has really struggled vs LHP and they lost Itzuris now and Barrett is questionable. Philly lost Rowand and probably Utley as well. Moyer this and Moyer that........they Covers editors who wrote there article dont make much sense....Moyer could struggle in the NL and away from Safeco. Did they research his 3 starts vs the NL this year ....damn good! 27 innings 15 hits and 5 runs !!The only road venues he struggled at were the lineups that slugged LHP...Chicago sure doesnt. Philly only 242 away against LHP and 236 at home for Chicago. O'Malley an unknown was solid as could be at Houston.........roll the dice with the pens and hope the starters do there job. Payback for last nite ...for under backers
Padres -150(7units)
Peavy hasnt allowed to LAD 2 score miore then 2 runs ever at Petco. He has returned to All Starform lately and always pitches well vs LAD. Hendrickson is just a question mark. He seems to pitch better on the road and has looked decent in 2 career starts vs SD. SD has alos won 9 of 10 vs LAD. Although they didnt hit LHP well if peavy holds them to 2 runs oir less even 3 runs I am very confident in my play.
Havent looked at the last games in the AL & NL but interested in the dogs, might be back with something!! Good Luck
Monday Thoughts
Under 11 -110 New York and Boston
(strong)
This isnt some it's due theory play. My feeling is we see that both teams have rested some players and switched up there lineups. We know both teams loaded with vets playing an emotionally draining series and they didnt get finsihed till about 1:30 AM last nite....not muc sleep.
For NY they started out like gangbusters in day games but have since slowly slowed down. Giambi is resting and his numbers are monsterous during the day , not to mention probably our hottest hitter. NY has 3 key hitters in the Cano , Abreu , Giambi and Damon but they are all LH(the later are resting as well). That comes to mind with Wells on the hill. Wells has been better his last few outings and the key is keep his team in teh game which I believe the Rubber Armed Lefty will do...keep his team around and eat some innings. After all he generally pitched very well against the Yankees. You know Schilling was amped up for the start last nite well Wells will bring that same intensity IMO.
Last few seasons Lidle has been noticeably beetr in his day outings and IMO pitched fairly well past 10 starts or so and ben able to go deeper in games. The Yanks then can turn it over to Farnsworth and Mariano who both have sub 1 ERA's during the day. Last year Wells was awful in his day starts which was sort of out of character but extremely tough at Fenway. this year this will be his first day start. Boston has some hitters with good day splits Hinske , Loretta , Manny and Ortiz (when dont they hit well!!) which could giv them the edge.
I wont even give a game Prediction cause I was wrong the first times , right last nite but didnt post anything so I will stay away. If not for the strong day splits for Boston's "slumping " (IMO) lineup I would say NY but those numbers scare me. However Like the Under as I think NY cools off today
NIGHT GAMES:
Well the Yanks got the amazing 5 game sweep and won 2-1.
Marlins +124 (medium)
Well this is a tough call on the surface But here is what I saw. First Anibal Sanchez is a veteran of 9 career ML starts and this tonite will be his tenth but also fourth alreay versus Washington. Which means they have seen just about everything he has and worse in a short period of time (5 weeks or so). You have to think there will be acertain comfort level for Wash facing him AGAIN. The key was that Wshington plays well when theytravel to Florida and that Traber has been serviceable in 3 of his 4 starts to date. Traber is LH and that is causing the Marlins some trouble this year 11-19 overall and just 5-8 at Pro Player. The real eye popper is the .237 BAA when facing a LHP in Pro Player.
So basically I see a decent LHP facing a team struggling to produce runs against LHP, who is facing a SP for the fourth team basically since the All Star break and where the road team has played exceptional well past 10 visits and for that I got a play at PLUS MONEY!
Not much concrete but IMO a true VALUE play....a coin flip with decent ++money(try out the ARL as well!
A's -116 {small to medium strength}
Just think Haren is throwing the ball extremely well and has had success against Toronto. People will look at the line and think its off but Haren was favored both trips to Skydome . Oakland will be facing its 6 th LH starter in 11 games and they have won 4 of the earlier 5. Lilly is inconsistent and I think has struggled somewhat lately and doesnt take them deep enough into games. Toronto's pen has been real solid but so has Oaklands even with Street now missing. Toronto coming back from a long road trip should also be somewhat flat in there first game back.
Over 8.5 -104 Det and Chicago
Seems like an odd play ....Contreras hasnt been sharp on the road road recently dropping 4 of his last 5 starts(Chicago has dropped). He has lost 6 of 9 away for his WSOx and 7 of the past 8 have sailed over. The con of this arguement is how well Jose has pitched vs DET this season (6ers in 31 innings spanning 4 starts and last year three of fours starts were extremely solid. Here again I think a SP is pitching vs the same team just to many times in such a short period as this will be Jose 3rd appearance versus them in the past month and fifth of the season. Verlander is a question mark right now...is he fatigued or tipping his pitches? Two things are for sure he has been excellent at home but also gets alot of run support and he has been dreadful in 3 career outings against the Sox...15earned in 13 2/3 innings over 3 starts this year!! The DET pen is usally tough but Chicago's has sprung a few leaks of late.
Det -111
This is one of those plays that on paper says Chicago is easy ! Contreras has owned DET and the Tigers are slumping while Verlander cant pitch effectively lately and has dropped all 3 career starts. Then again thats why they play the games but truth a nice bounce back start with a kid who has been tough at home....
Under 5 1st 5 Innings +100 (small) even the Under 9 +119 is attractive.
Basically Rich Hill is a youngster who has dominanted the minors and struggled some in the majors. He has 3 solid home starts this yr in 4 outings but the road has been a problem. Good thing he is at Wrigley facing a LH heavy order who doesnt hit LH well (think 237 away). Leiber has loved August and he has spun 3 excellent startsspanning 27 innings allowed 16 hits , 7 runs only 3 earned. The innings is important as Flash is unavailable.
Was thinking about Pettitte and the Stros today but ultimaley passed so hating that 2-0 lead early . With LAD right now its impossible to fade them so either play the Dodgers or pass I did. Last game is Arizona and SF and I am still looking at this but really think Arizona is going to be my play.
GL
Under 11 -110 New York and Boston
(strong)
This isnt some it's due theory play. My feeling is we see that both teams have rested some players and switched up there lineups. We know both teams loaded with vets playing an emotionally draining series and they didnt get finsihed till about 1:30 AM last nite....not muc sleep.
For NY they started out like gangbusters in day games but have since slowly slowed down. Giambi is resting and his numbers are monsterous during the day , not to mention probably our hottest hitter. NY has 3 key hitters in the Cano , Abreu , Giambi and Damon but they are all LH(the later are resting as well). That comes to mind with Wells on the hill. Wells has been better his last few outings and the key is keep his team in teh game which I believe the Rubber Armed Lefty will do...keep his team around and eat some innings. After all he generally pitched very well against the Yankees. You know Schilling was amped up for the start last nite well Wells will bring that same intensity IMO.
Last few seasons Lidle has been noticeably beetr in his day outings and IMO pitched fairly well past 10 starts or so and ben able to go deeper in games. The Yanks then can turn it over to Farnsworth and Mariano who both have sub 1 ERA's during the day. Last year Wells was awful in his day starts which was sort of out of character but extremely tough at Fenway. this year this will be his first day start. Boston has some hitters with good day splits Hinske , Loretta , Manny and Ortiz (when dont they hit well!!) which could giv them the edge.
I wont even give a game Prediction cause I was wrong the first times , right last nite but didnt post anything so I will stay away. If not for the strong day splits for Boston's "slumping " (IMO) lineup I would say NY but those numbers scare me. However Like the Under as I think NY cools off today
NIGHT GAMES:
Well the Yanks got the amazing 5 game sweep and won 2-1.
Marlins +124 (medium)
Well this is a tough call on the surface But here is what I saw. First Anibal Sanchez is a veteran of 9 career ML starts and this tonite will be his tenth but also fourth alreay versus Washington. Which means they have seen just about everything he has and worse in a short period of time (5 weeks or so). You have to think there will be acertain comfort level for Wash facing him AGAIN. The key was that Wshington plays well when theytravel to Florida and that Traber has been serviceable in 3 of his 4 starts to date. Traber is LH and that is causing the Marlins some trouble this year 11-19 overall and just 5-8 at Pro Player. The real eye popper is the .237 BAA when facing a LHP in Pro Player.
So basically I see a decent LHP facing a team struggling to produce runs against LHP, who is facing a SP for the fourth team basically since the All Star break and where the road team has played exceptional well past 10 visits and for that I got a play at PLUS MONEY!
Not much concrete but IMO a true VALUE play....a coin flip with decent ++money(try out the ARL as well!
A's -116 {small to medium strength}
Just think Haren is throwing the ball extremely well and has had success against Toronto. People will look at the line and think its off but Haren was favored both trips to Skydome . Oakland will be facing its 6 th LH starter in 11 games and they have won 4 of the earlier 5. Lilly is inconsistent and I think has struggled somewhat lately and doesnt take them deep enough into games. Toronto's pen has been real solid but so has Oaklands even with Street now missing. Toronto coming back from a long road trip should also be somewhat flat in there first game back.
Over 8.5 -104 Det and Chicago
Seems like an odd play ....Contreras hasnt been sharp on the road road recently dropping 4 of his last 5 starts(Chicago has dropped). He has lost 6 of 9 away for his WSOx and 7 of the past 8 have sailed over. The con of this arguement is how well Jose has pitched vs DET this season (6ers in 31 innings spanning 4 starts and last year three of fours starts were extremely solid. Here again I think a SP is pitching vs the same team just to many times in such a short period as this will be Jose 3rd appearance versus them in the past month and fifth of the season. Verlander is a question mark right now...is he fatigued or tipping his pitches? Two things are for sure he has been excellent at home but also gets alot of run support and he has been dreadful in 3 career outings against the Sox...15earned in 13 2/3 innings over 3 starts this year!! The DET pen is usally tough but Chicago's has sprung a few leaks of late.
Det -111
This is one of those plays that on paper says Chicago is easy ! Contreras has owned DET and the Tigers are slumping while Verlander cant pitch effectively lately and has dropped all 3 career starts. Then again thats why they play the games but truth a nice bounce back start with a kid who has been tough at home....
Under 5 1st 5 Innings +100 (small) even the Under 9 +119 is attractive.
Basically Rich Hill is a youngster who has dominanted the minors and struggled some in the majors. He has 3 solid home starts this yr in 4 outings but the road has been a problem. Good thing he is at Wrigley facing a LH heavy order who doesnt hit LH well (think 237 away). Leiber has loved August and he has spun 3 excellent startsspanning 27 innings allowed 16 hits , 7 runs only 3 earned. The innings is important as Flash is unavailable.
Was thinking about Pettitte and the Stros today but ultimaley passed so hating that 2-0 lead early . With LAD right now its impossible to fade them so either play the Dodgers or pass I did. Last game is Arizona and SF and I am still looking at this but really think Arizona is going to be my play.
GL
Saturday, August 19, 2006
Saturday 's Thoughts
First things first a very solid Friday considering at the beginning of the day there wasnt much catching my eye. Hard work pays off!!
How bout MY Yankees.....never ever expected a DH sweep!
Cubbies -125(strong)
The Cubs as I mentioned on Friday have for whatever reason played extremely well against Chi this season . Before Friday's loss they had swept a 3 and 4 game set @ Wrigley this year. Now the have there ace on the hill who has defeated StL 4 consecutive starts in Wrigley and 5 of 6 . On the flip you have Suppan who has pitched some solid road games recently but ultimately ahs a 7.16 ROAD ERA And WHip approaching 1.90!!!! StL still must continue to prove to me they are going to be a consistent offense.
Under 5.5 -106(now -113) First 5 Innings NYY and Boston (also Under 10 NY +106) (strong)
Seems that over nite many people had teh same idea as me taking the Over 10 to a higher prcie while driving the under 5.5 First 5 to a higher price!!
Lets be honest here these teams HAVE to be SLUGGISH after this horrific DH! They just set a ML record for how long the game lasted!!! These guys will be flat and they only have to face Randy Johnson and Josh Beckett....no big deal, right?? Beckett's transition to the AL hasnt be smooth but he has been sharp in his day starts and guess what 1 PM start!!! RJ has been fairly solid recently the problem is he when he is OFF he is AWFUL. Boston has struggled some vs LHP this year and RJ hasnt been to bad vs them in his NYY career. I expect both lineups to be flat , all scored out and see 2 strong pitching performances. Now I prefer the 1st 5 Inning play oinstead of the Under 10 game total only cause of the TAXED pens(still will playit small).
Orioles -116 (strong)
Well I am disappointed in my decisions to pass on the Orioles and Braves today so hopefully this isnt some subconcious makeup call. Cabrera is always much better at Camden and IMO has had some success against the Jays in his career including this year. Marcum has failed to show me he is prepared to pitch in an opposing stadium and even so at this point he is just a 6 inning guy at BEST!
Pirates +125 and ARL +192(medium)
Under 8.5 -111 SD and Arizona (alsolike First 5 Innings here)
Hensley and VArgas both have had limited success against the opposing squads and I think both SP prefer these situations....VArgas on the road and Hensley at Petco. Sd has been sluggish offensively and I think its worth a shot although a minor one.
Also looking at NYY , Arizona , Over Toronto and BAlt in the Day. At nite still work to do with Minny , SFG and Colorado coming to mind!
NFL Preseason
Packers -3 +105 or ML -145(medium to strong)
One of those games like the Browns tonite where being home is an edge that goes unnoticed. GB has something to prove IMO and like CHI did tonite I think its the Cheeseheads turn.
Again much time and work to do! Good Luck
First things first a very solid Friday considering at the beginning of the day there wasnt much catching my eye. Hard work pays off!!
How bout MY Yankees.....never ever expected a DH sweep!
Cubbies -125(strong)
The Cubs as I mentioned on Friday have for whatever reason played extremely well against Chi this season . Before Friday's loss they had swept a 3 and 4 game set @ Wrigley this year. Now the have there ace on the hill who has defeated StL 4 consecutive starts in Wrigley and 5 of 6 . On the flip you have Suppan who has pitched some solid road games recently but ultimately ahs a 7.16 ROAD ERA And WHip approaching 1.90!!!! StL still must continue to prove to me they are going to be a consistent offense.
Under 5.5 -106(now -113) First 5 Innings NYY and Boston (also Under 10 NY +106) (strong)
Seems that over nite many people had teh same idea as me taking the Over 10 to a higher prcie while driving the under 5.5 First 5 to a higher price!!
Lets be honest here these teams HAVE to be SLUGGISH after this horrific DH! They just set a ML record for how long the game lasted!!! These guys will be flat and they only have to face Randy Johnson and Josh Beckett....no big deal, right?? Beckett's transition to the AL hasnt be smooth but he has been sharp in his day starts and guess what 1 PM start!!! RJ has been fairly solid recently the problem is he when he is OFF he is AWFUL. Boston has struggled some vs LHP this year and RJ hasnt been to bad vs them in his NYY career. I expect both lineups to be flat , all scored out and see 2 strong pitching performances. Now I prefer the 1st 5 Inning play oinstead of the Under 10 game total only cause of the TAXED pens(still will playit small).
Orioles -116 (strong)
Well I am disappointed in my decisions to pass on the Orioles and Braves today so hopefully this isnt some subconcious makeup call. Cabrera is always much better at Camden and IMO has had some success against the Jays in his career including this year. Marcum has failed to show me he is prepared to pitch in an opposing stadium and even so at this point he is just a 6 inning guy at BEST!
Pirates +125 and ARL +192(medium)
Malhom has turned the corner past 10 starts or so and has a good track record versus the Reds. Milton is basically in the same boat but in this situation I prefer to ride the dog.... basically a coin flip. Think this si and under but staying off
Under 8.5 -111 SD and Arizona (alsolike First 5 Innings here)
Hensley and VArgas both have had limited success against the opposing squads and I think both SP prefer these situations....VArgas on the road and Hensley at Petco. Sd has been sluggish offensively and I think its worth a shot although a minor one.
Also looking at NYY , Arizona , Over Toronto and BAlt in the Day. At nite still work to do with Minny , SFG and Colorado coming to mind!
NFL Preseason
Packers -3 +105 or ML -145(medium to strong)
One of those games like the Browns tonite where being home is an edge that goes unnoticed. GB has something to prove IMO and like CHI did tonite I think its the Cheeseheads turn.
Again much time and work to do! Good Luck
Thursday, August 17, 2006
Friday's Thoughts
Well looking back it appears to be a successful Thursday, how bout those New York 'FOOTBALL' Giants.....17-0 maybe it was just that easy afterall/
Well my Yankees have a doubleheader in Boston today and it has me worried. Looking at Wang he has had a tremendous amount of succes at that Stadium but that really hasnt translated into consistency away from home. Looking back in 12 road starts he had only 3 real good starts to speak of: back in April when the Twins stunk he pitched very well there , then he pitched that great game in Washington but lost on Zimmerman's walkoff HR and lastily recently he pitched a gem down in TB. Otherwise the Yanks have dropped 7 of his 12 road starts and he hasnt won at Fenway yet in 3 starts. The kid is 9-2 2.97 (1.13 WHIP) @ Yankee Stadium but 4-3 in 12 road starts with a 5.16 ERA and 1.60 (yikes) WHIP! Thanks to great run support (nearly 7 per) he has won 7 of his 9 day starts but his ERA is 4.47 compared to 3.54 @ nite. Then his last 2 starts are of the 5 inning variety and he has allowed 9 runs in 10 .1 innings but 20 HITS!
Then Jason Johnson......could he pitch any worse in 2006??? The numbers are so bad they shouldnt even be spoken outloud!! Then he is 2-9 (2-12 when he starts) in his career versus NYY!!! The sad part are the numbers are respectable versus them 4.29 ERA and .271 BAA!! This season I have to cover my eyes when I look at his season 3-11(5-13 when he starts) , 6.26 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. FEnway has never been good to him either.
While I am seriously concerned about my NYY here I think its better to just sit back and watch here. It's amatter of 2 SP who might not be around long today and aprice , well a price that says please take the money and play Boston cause the NYY are absurdly high @ Fenway IMO.
Over 6 -117 First 5 Innings (small)
Cubs +105 (small)
This is one of those things in my head . You look and see Chicago is seven for seven at home versus SL this year and 10-3 overall. Huge rivalary and Marquis has been abused over his past 3 starts failing to get run support and failing to stop anyone from scoring(outscored 25-4 L3). Marquis has struggled all season versus Chicago and failed to win @ Wrigley in limited starts. To Maquis credit is he has been solid in day starts 6-3 3.88ERA this yr. For Marmol he has managed to pitch fairly well outside of one horrific 1st inning versus Zona in his last home start... 4runs in 6 , 1 run in 6 and 1 run in 6 1/3 innings and 3 runs (2earned) vs StL then the 7 spot in 5 innings against Zona. Edmonds will probably be once again on the pine. With thatthey are very limited offensively Pujols , Rolen , Duncan and ???
Marquis is 1-5 with a 6.18 ERA in 7 2nd Half starts. This yr versus ChiC
14.2 INN 23 hits 18runs 12ER 3Hr 8BB 8K 7.36ERA 2.11WHIP .359BAA . At Wrigley only 3 starts all losses though, spanning 15 innings , 22hits , 12 runs (9er)!! The real key here is Marquis best numbers seem to be when he starts under the sun....my biggest concern right now!
NFL Preseason
Bills -3.5 -104(try to play it at -3 though) (medium to strong)
To me the preseason is mainly about competiton and depth. Well Buffalo has a nice QB competition going and Cincy has journeyman Doug Johnson and Anthony Wright at the helm....
Lackluster start guess I should have just went with the game total in Boston and yes they were begging for Boston money!
Night time:
(small to medium)
Three sides:
Indians -1.5 runs -102
Royals +145
Mets -1.5 runs +153
Over 6 First 5 Innings Boston -117
Under 10 -112 Pitt
Under 9 +101 Milwuakee
NFL
Bills -3.5 -112 (strong)
Browns -3 +102 (medium)
Bears -4 -110 (small)
Be cautious do your due diligence cause I was real short on time and even I know I must have taken short cuts!!
Well looking back it appears to be a successful Thursday, how bout those New York 'FOOTBALL' Giants.....17-0 maybe it was just that easy afterall/
Well my Yankees have a doubleheader in Boston today and it has me worried. Looking at Wang he has had a tremendous amount of succes at that Stadium but that really hasnt translated into consistency away from home. Looking back in 12 road starts he had only 3 real good starts to speak of: back in April when the Twins stunk he pitched very well there , then he pitched that great game in Washington but lost on Zimmerman's walkoff HR and lastily recently he pitched a gem down in TB. Otherwise the Yanks have dropped 7 of his 12 road starts and he hasnt won at Fenway yet in 3 starts. The kid is 9-2 2.97 (1.13 WHIP) @ Yankee Stadium but 4-3 in 12 road starts with a 5.16 ERA and 1.60 (yikes) WHIP! Thanks to great run support (nearly 7 per) he has won 7 of his 9 day starts but his ERA is 4.47 compared to 3.54 @ nite. Then his last 2 starts are of the 5 inning variety and he has allowed 9 runs in 10 .1 innings but 20 HITS!
Then Jason Johnson......could he pitch any worse in 2006??? The numbers are so bad they shouldnt even be spoken outloud!! Then he is 2-9 (2-12 when he starts) in his career versus NYY!!! The sad part are the numbers are respectable versus them 4.29 ERA and .271 BAA!! This season I have to cover my eyes when I look at his season 3-11(5-13 when he starts) , 6.26 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. FEnway has never been good to him either.
While I am seriously concerned about my NYY here I think its better to just sit back and watch here. It's amatter of 2 SP who might not be around long today and aprice , well a price that says please take the money and play Boston cause the NYY are absurdly high @ Fenway IMO.
Over 6 -117 First 5 Innings (small)
Cubs +105 (small)
This is one of those things in my head . You look and see Chicago is seven for seven at home versus SL this year and 10-3 overall. Huge rivalary and Marquis has been abused over his past 3 starts failing to get run support and failing to stop anyone from scoring(outscored 25-4 L3). Marquis has struggled all season versus Chicago and failed to win @ Wrigley in limited starts. To Maquis credit is he has been solid in day starts 6-3 3.88ERA this yr. For Marmol he has managed to pitch fairly well outside of one horrific 1st inning versus Zona in his last home start... 4runs in 6 , 1 run in 6 and 1 run in 6 1/3 innings and 3 runs (2earned) vs StL then the 7 spot in 5 innings against Zona. Edmonds will probably be once again on the pine. With thatthey are very limited offensively Pujols , Rolen , Duncan and ???
Marquis is 1-5 with a 6.18 ERA in 7 2nd Half starts. This yr versus ChiC
14.2 INN 23 hits 18runs 12ER 3Hr 8BB 8K 7.36ERA 2.11WHIP .359BAA . At Wrigley only 3 starts all losses though, spanning 15 innings , 22hits , 12 runs (9er)!! The real key here is Marquis best numbers seem to be when he starts under the sun....my biggest concern right now!
NFL Preseason
Bills -3.5 -104(try to play it at -3 though) (medium to strong)
To me the preseason is mainly about competiton and depth. Well Buffalo has a nice QB competition going and Cincy has journeyman Doug Johnson and Anthony Wright at the helm....
Lackluster start guess I should have just went with the game total in Boston and yes they were begging for Boston money!
Night time:
Really cant chat much about these as I short on time:
Giants -118 (medium)
Rangers -104 (medium)
Schidmt has four solid starts vs LAD this year but has yet to record a win or lead his team to a win . Penny is no slouch but that also gets you a cheaper price.
Millwood has been excellent on the road and DET barely escaped with a win yesterday thanks to Zumaya.
(small to medium)
Pirates +113 or First 5 Innings +112
Snell like Millwood has been excellent away this year and Cincy's bats are struggling. They face a LHP and that is scary (7-32) but Michalak has alot to prove, the journeyman cant rest on one solid start versus a predominantly LH lineup. If the pirates pen which blew 2 wins in MILW scares ya start with the First 5 Innings.
Red Sox -127
Lester has shown the ability to pitch out of a jams and Ponson hasnt shown much of anything as a Yankee. Certainly he doesnt pitch well in Boston or versus the Sox in his career.
Under 9 -123 Colorado and NYM(only at 9)
Both Traschel and Kim pitching fairly well past few starts and these teams have dependable pens.
Brewers -104
Ohka has had his troubles but neither Backe or the Astros should be a PKem to a divisional rival on the road imo.
This will have started already but also liked game #1 in KC the UNder 10 runs.
(Real small)Three sides:
Indians -1.5 runs -102
Royals +145
Mets -1.5 runs +153
Over 6 First 5 Innings Boston -117
Under 10 -112 Pitt
Under 9 +101 Milwuakee
NFL
Bills -3.5 -112 (strong)
Browns -3 +102 (medium)
Bears -4 -110 (small)
Be cautious do your due diligence cause I was real short on time and even I know I must have taken short cuts!!
Thursday Thoughts ( Lots of Day starts)
Well hopefully if you read my Wed post you saw that I was heavy on 3 games Boston , Over Fla and Texas all which won and both sides won on the Run Lines as well. The rest of the plays were so-so but some nice dogs who all hit on the ARL in Cincy , SF and Arizona for great payouts. The totals suffered on the smaller plays
It's a new day with more work ahead:
Under 10.5 NYY and Baltimore +110 (@ pinnacle sports) (medium strength)
Okay we have two back end of the rotation type SP going today but still two arms who are pitching well of late. Wright has managed to lead NY to wins in all of his last 3 starts and Rodrigo has done so in 2 of 3 for Baltimore. We all know Jaret Wright will only be given the chance to 6 innings so his last 3 starts span only 16 and 1/3 innings. In which he allowed only 3 runs ( 1 each start) to Tor , Balt and LAA. Wright has been solid in Day starts going 5-1 with a 3.51 ERA and seeing 5 unders and a push in those games. At home despite a 4.68 ERA he has an 7-2-1 UNDER mark most likely due to his ability to pitch out of jams , get grounders and keep the ball in the park. In two '06 starts against BALT he has lasted 12 innings( 6 both times) and allowed 4 runs (3 earned).
NowLopez has really struggled on the road and that is a major concern here 2-6 7.22 ERA. His last 3 starts have seen him spin 20 + innings and allow 7 runs (3.10 ERA) with a 17K to 2 BB ratio. He pitched fairly well verus NYY recently but they made him pay for his mistakes crushing 4 SOLO Hr's. Now he also had a long relief outing vs Boston that was decent 3 runs in 4 and 2/3 innings. Now most times I wouldnt say decent for that line but in this situation if Lopez went 5 Innings and allowed 3 runs or 6 inn and allowed 4 runs I would be very happy. Despite his road struggles he is 6 -3 UNDER on the road. Also his last 5 outings in NY have been either excellent or bombings....3 starts allowing 4 runs in 22++ innings or the other two allowing 18 runs (13 earned ) in 7++ innings...HIT or MISS for him.
There are alot of UNDER trends for the squads backing this up plus Balt's inability to score runs versus NYY lately. The NYY pen continues to improve as we have been pitching well and now added Dotel to the mix( could be a bad thing though) and Balts pen is inconsistent . O's are 8- 3 UNDER in August , NYY is 11-3 UNDER in AUG and 11-4 in the 2nd Half versus teams with losing records , NYY is 36-24 UNDER at the STADIUM , and both SP have seen unders in there past 3 starts. O's 10-4 Under last 14 day games and 19-7 UNDER for NYY last 26 @ Home. Bucknor is calling ball and strikes and while many might disagree with me I think he is a neutral UMP. In regard to overs and unders. He has seemed to had mostly games with totals above 9 runs which I think has more to do with his 10 + run average.
Mets -116 and RL +137 (medium strength)
Lets not breakout the BULLSHIT for this one. For a logical standpoint you never want to drop 4 games to a divisonal rival no matter how many games up you are on them. Simply put cause you dont want to let them build any momentum. Maine and Mathieson already sqaured off with NY winning 8-1. I HATE return engagements where the same SP square off again in a short period of time. Due to teh situation though I will ride it. Maine has been terrific of late and well MAthieson has lost 5 of his 6 starts. The biggest knock I can make on Maine is his most of his starts where at home so somewhat untested when he travels and Mathieson for his rough numbers he has 2 solid outing sat home in three games. NY is 21- 6 there last 27 daygames (philly 9-3 past 12 day)and I believe only lost 4 or more consecutive games on 1 occassion this year. Want to say UNDER in this one but it seems that there is some heavy fow that way and a high vig -121 for the U 10 runs.....
Twinkies -106 (RL +178 for a little value) (somewhat lesser then the first two )
UNDER 10 +103
Really not much to go on here. Garza is a STUD rookie SP making his second ML start. It has been reported that the kid was visibly nervous and shaken before his first ML start. So hopefully the jitters are now gne and we get a glimpse of hwat he can do. Cleveland is on a 10-2 Under daystreak and Minny has dropped 8 straight unders. Cousins has had 6 totals of 10 or higher and 5 went Under so small play on the UNder 10 +103 as well.
Byrd has great day numbers but the sun dont shine in a DOME. However he has been fairly strong in his career in the Metrodome but has lost 2 of his last 3 starst there including a July meeting. I expect a decent outing again from Byrd but the Tribe pen is shaky right now. I think Garza puts in a real strong performance and 10 Runs at the DOME is high.
1 PM starts:
Under 10.5 NYY
NYM -116 (and RL for value)
Twins -106 (and some RL for value)
Under 10 +103 Minny
all medium plays....
Well a so-so start to the afternoon and now time is short. In the same realm of strength as the Twinkies plays:
Colorado +124
Over 9 +105
There is a 3:30 start as well in SD which I find tough. Peavy is looking for revenge here and is starting to resemble the Jake Peavy we all expected. However in 2006 he has failed to pitch well at PETCO and has been a disaster in day starts. Cain has been solid versus SD in his short career but has seen some bad days when he pitches on the road. Real low total thanks to the sluggish offenses and the respect peavy gets. I owuld say that Over 7.5 +101 is a real small ( marginal ) play if you are looking for something. The home plate Ump Jim Joyce is fairly thight and sees about 10 runs per start....SF also has an up and down Bullpen to aid this. Lets see what happens.
Part II : Night Edition
Rangers +126 (small to medium type- same as Colorado and Twins plays) ARL @ +190 for some value
Okay this is a stretch but I feel that in many ways the house wants your money on DET. First the Tigers were struggling dropping 5 straight before a well played series @ Fenway where they won 2 of 3. Now hey come home and have Kenny Rogers on the hill versus somehwhat unknown but certainly unproven Edison Volquez. Who was okay his 1st start but solid his second outing vs Seattle. Now with Polanco out and Volquez possible being something to look forward to this creates an interesting matchup. Texas has won 6 of 7 and is playing better on the road then at home. for as good as the 'Gambler' has been at home this season he is still only 4-1 meaning that his run support isnt very good(4.8 per). Texas has crushed LHP last few games see Saunders and Zito .....
Take a chance on the Rangers here....best team in baseball record wise laying 130 to -140 at home....??? Think about it. Rogers has gone 6 or more just three times in his past 9 starts and has a 5.30 ERA at nite
Under 8.5 -119 Toronto and TB( also like Und 4.5 -108 1st 5 Innings) (small)
Just thinking that the past outings for both show these two could be about to go on a run. Despite hitting LHP fairly well the Jays havent had success against Kazmir who sports a 2.10 ERA @ Trop this season. Burnett has been inconsistent all year especially in road starts so be cautious. However he does sport real solid numbers vs TB in his career and has enjoyed solid outings at TROP in his career. Hopefully his last 7 inning outing is a sign AJ Burnett is finally healthy and ready to contribute consistently. Having Marvin Hudson behind teh dish seems to be a plus for the under as well. A undisciplined lineup like TB should IMO struggle versus the power of AJ with that sharp curve as well.
Mariners +163(small play)
The shot in the dark type play. Moyer should not be this big a dog here IMO. Escobar is inconsistent and with a medocore track record vs the Mariners. For whatever reason the road team has done extremely well this year in the series and Seattle before being swept at home had own the LAA 2006 squad. They had won 7 of 9 and 5 of 6 in LAA. Moyer pitches good enough to keep his team around when he travels to LA and was decent in his 4-0 loss at Safeco. Seattle cant continue to lose to divisional opponents at this rate unless they have quit...dont think they have....take a shot !
NFL Preseason
NY Giants -3 -110
Might seem to easy but I have to play this. KC severly lacks teh depth that NY has to offer IMO and that is teh main reason I like it. NY also getting some veterans in the mix while KC doesnt have much depth at QB , RB or WR IMO. Would really love to hammer this one but again seems to easy and that scares me....have to love QB competition!!!
Okay thats all for Thursday......IF I had to and I dont and wont I would guess Houston , Under 8.5 Houston and over 34.5 Ravens!
Well hopefully if you read my Wed post you saw that I was heavy on 3 games Boston , Over Fla and Texas all which won and both sides won on the Run Lines as well. The rest of the plays were so-so but some nice dogs who all hit on the ARL in Cincy , SF and Arizona for great payouts. The totals suffered on the smaller plays
It's a new day with more work ahead:
Under 10.5 NYY and Baltimore +110 (@ pinnacle sports) (medium strength)
Okay we have two back end of the rotation type SP going today but still two arms who are pitching well of late. Wright has managed to lead NY to wins in all of his last 3 starts and Rodrigo has done so in 2 of 3 for Baltimore. We all know Jaret Wright will only be given the chance to 6 innings so his last 3 starts span only 16 and 1/3 innings. In which he allowed only 3 runs ( 1 each start) to Tor , Balt and LAA. Wright has been solid in Day starts going 5-1 with a 3.51 ERA and seeing 5 unders and a push in those games. At home despite a 4.68 ERA he has an 7-2-1 UNDER mark most likely due to his ability to pitch out of jams , get grounders and keep the ball in the park. In two '06 starts against BALT he has lasted 12 innings( 6 both times) and allowed 4 runs (3 earned).
NowLopez has really struggled on the road and that is a major concern here 2-6 7.22 ERA. His last 3 starts have seen him spin 20 + innings and allow 7 runs (3.10 ERA) with a 17K to 2 BB ratio. He pitched fairly well verus NYY recently but they made him pay for his mistakes crushing 4 SOLO Hr's. Now he also had a long relief outing vs Boston that was decent 3 runs in 4 and 2/3 innings. Now most times I wouldnt say decent for that line but in this situation if Lopez went 5 Innings and allowed 3 runs or 6 inn and allowed 4 runs I would be very happy. Despite his road struggles he is 6 -3 UNDER on the road. Also his last 5 outings in NY have been either excellent or bombings....3 starts allowing 4 runs in 22++ innings or the other two allowing 18 runs (13 earned ) in 7++ innings...HIT or MISS for him.
There are alot of UNDER trends for the squads backing this up plus Balt's inability to score runs versus NYY lately. The NYY pen continues to improve as we have been pitching well and now added Dotel to the mix( could be a bad thing though) and Balts pen is inconsistent . O's are 8- 3 UNDER in August , NYY is 11-3 UNDER in AUG and 11-4 in the 2nd Half versus teams with losing records , NYY is 36-24 UNDER at the STADIUM , and both SP have seen unders in there past 3 starts. O's 10-4 Under last 14 day games and 19-7 UNDER for NYY last 26 @ Home. Bucknor is calling ball and strikes and while many might disagree with me I think he is a neutral UMP. In regard to overs and unders. He has seemed to had mostly games with totals above 9 runs which I think has more to do with his 10 + run average.
Mets -116 and RL +137 (medium strength)
Lets not breakout the BULLSHIT for this one. For a logical standpoint you never want to drop 4 games to a divisonal rival no matter how many games up you are on them. Simply put cause you dont want to let them build any momentum. Maine and Mathieson already sqaured off with NY winning 8-1. I HATE return engagements where the same SP square off again in a short period of time. Due to teh situation though I will ride it. Maine has been terrific of late and well MAthieson has lost 5 of his 6 starts. The biggest knock I can make on Maine is his most of his starts where at home so somewhat untested when he travels and Mathieson for his rough numbers he has 2 solid outing sat home in three games. NY is 21- 6 there last 27 daygames (philly 9-3 past 12 day)and I believe only lost 4 or more consecutive games on 1 occassion this year. Want to say UNDER in this one but it seems that there is some heavy fow that way and a high vig -121 for the U 10 runs.....
Twinkies -106 (RL +178 for a little value) (somewhat lesser then the first two )
UNDER 10 +103
Really not much to go on here. Garza is a STUD rookie SP making his second ML start. It has been reported that the kid was visibly nervous and shaken before his first ML start. So hopefully the jitters are now gne and we get a glimpse of hwat he can do. Cleveland is on a 10-2 Under daystreak and Minny has dropped 8 straight unders. Cousins has had 6 totals of 10 or higher and 5 went Under so small play on the UNder 10 +103 as well.
Byrd has great day numbers but the sun dont shine in a DOME. However he has been fairly strong in his career in the Metrodome but has lost 2 of his last 3 starst there including a July meeting. I expect a decent outing again from Byrd but the Tribe pen is shaky right now. I think Garza puts in a real strong performance and 10 Runs at the DOME is high.
1 PM starts:
Under 10.5 NYY
NYM -116 (and RL for value)
Twins -106 (and some RL for value)
Under 10 +103 Minny
all medium plays....
Well a so-so start to the afternoon and now time is short. In the same realm of strength as the Twinkies plays:
Colorado +124
Over 9 +105
There is a 3:30 start as well in SD which I find tough. Peavy is looking for revenge here and is starting to resemble the Jake Peavy we all expected. However in 2006 he has failed to pitch well at PETCO and has been a disaster in day starts. Cain has been solid versus SD in his short career but has seen some bad days when he pitches on the road. Real low total thanks to the sluggish offenses and the respect peavy gets. I owuld say that Over 7.5 +101 is a real small ( marginal ) play if you are looking for something. The home plate Ump Jim Joyce is fairly thight and sees about 10 runs per start....SF also has an up and down Bullpen to aid this. Lets see what happens.
Part II : Night Edition
Rangers +126 (small to medium type- same as Colorado and Twins plays) ARL @ +190 for some value
Okay this is a stretch but I feel that in many ways the house wants your money on DET. First the Tigers were struggling dropping 5 straight before a well played series @ Fenway where they won 2 of 3. Now hey come home and have Kenny Rogers on the hill versus somehwhat unknown but certainly unproven Edison Volquez. Who was okay his 1st start but solid his second outing vs Seattle. Now with Polanco out and Volquez possible being something to look forward to this creates an interesting matchup. Texas has won 6 of 7 and is playing better on the road then at home. for as good as the 'Gambler' has been at home this season he is still only 4-1 meaning that his run support isnt very good(4.8 per). Texas has crushed LHP last few games see Saunders and Zito .....
Take a chance on the Rangers here....best team in baseball record wise laying 130 to -140 at home....??? Think about it. Rogers has gone 6 or more just three times in his past 9 starts and has a 5.30 ERA at nite
Under 8.5 -119 Toronto and TB( also like Und 4.5 -108 1st 5 Innings) (small)
Just thinking that the past outings for both show these two could be about to go on a run. Despite hitting LHP fairly well the Jays havent had success against Kazmir who sports a 2.10 ERA @ Trop this season. Burnett has been inconsistent all year especially in road starts so be cautious. However he does sport real solid numbers vs TB in his career and has enjoyed solid outings at TROP in his career. Hopefully his last 7 inning outing is a sign AJ Burnett is finally healthy and ready to contribute consistently. Having Marvin Hudson behind teh dish seems to be a plus for the under as well. A undisciplined lineup like TB should IMO struggle versus the power of AJ with that sharp curve as well.
Mariners +163(small play)
The shot in the dark type play. Moyer should not be this big a dog here IMO. Escobar is inconsistent and with a medocore track record vs the Mariners. For whatever reason the road team has done extremely well this year in the series and Seattle before being swept at home had own the LAA 2006 squad. They had won 7 of 9 and 5 of 6 in LAA. Moyer pitches good enough to keep his team around when he travels to LA and was decent in his 4-0 loss at Safeco. Seattle cant continue to lose to divisional opponents at this rate unless they have quit...dont think they have....take a shot !
NFL Preseason
NY Giants -3 -110
Might seem to easy but I have to play this. KC severly lacks teh depth that NY has to offer IMO and that is teh main reason I like it. NY also getting some veterans in the mix while KC doesnt have much depth at QB , RB or WR IMO. Would really love to hammer this one but again seems to easy and that scares me....have to love QB competition!!!
Okay thats all for Thursday......IF I had to and I dont and wont I would guess Houston , Under 8.5 Houston and over 34.5 Ravens!
Wednesday, August 16, 2006
Here is todays overview:
Pirates -110
Over 8.5 -114 LAD(strongest of the two)
First despite repeated LOSSES with Pittsburgh when opposing a LH SP 7-31 after todays loss and the absence of Bay we have value IMO. Duke has managed to lead the Pirates to wins in 7 of his 10 starts at home this year despite some issues in day games. Duke was rocked last time out vs Milwaukee but had started his career with 4 extremely solid outings versus them and I look for another start...Gorzelanny did well today. Capuano has been ripped in consecutive outings versus Pitt and has not had much sucess pitching at there Home Park. He has been fairly inconsistent lately and is not throwing like he did earlier.
The Over in LA is tricky but a day game helps IMO. Also Everitt (UMP) is 18-7 OVER with an 11.68 RUN average(if I recall correctly) and troubling 300++ pitch outing average= TIGHT ZONE. Hendrickson is always putting the wood on the ball and allows many baserunners. So far his time in DodgerLand especially at home has seen some tough outings. With Josh Johnson he was rocked recently by LAD who is smoking RHP of late and JJ has some troubles getting LHB's out. He does sport a wonderful road and day ERA. Except you dont ever know what that pen will do as he should max out at 7 innings and is at the stage where you wonder how consistent he will be due to fatigue(alot more innings then he may be used to in August). You never know what FLA's pen will give you ...remember that.
Here is an unknown trend:
Marlins shutout 4 times in 2006 and responded with 8 runs , 9 runs twice and 11 runs..........HMMMMMMMM.
Strong Play IMO as people will center on the names of the SP to much here. Dont forget that LAD smoked JJ in FLA already and LHB are a concern for him.
Tonite:
Boston Red Sox -103 (HUGE Play) also -1.5 Run Line @ +186 has nice value
It's funny you look at the matchup and think Wells stinks lets go Verlander then research comes into play.
Wells was solid last time out and prior to that some poor defense lead to 4 unearned runs @ TB but only 1 ER in 6innings. A somewhat different team then the one he faced last year but still had a solid effort versus.
Verlander is coming off a few weeks in whiuch he had a so-so start then was pushed back due to fatigue then allowed his highest hittotal of theyear 13 in 5 innings and was 'mentioned' that he had to be tipping his pitchings (according to Leyland). So do we expect a youngster to correctthat immediately....we shouldnt . If thats not the case then how big is this fatigue factor?? Last 2 outings 10 Innings , 21 Hits allowed 8runs and 7 earned(6.30ERA). Also it does seem that LHP is giving DET some trouble.....consecutive 4-3 defeats to Buerhle and Santana. They did beat an now known to beinjured Liriano 9-3 after defeating Sabathia 1-0. Also prior to that they beat Cliff Lee 7-6 but Lee held them scoreless thru 5(pulled in the 7th) and watched the pen implode as DET scored 7 in innings 6 thru 8.
While some might think my LOGIC is lunacy the fact that Boston is OFF on Thursday with NYY coming in for 5 games (yes , 5 games!!) creates a must win situation here. Oh and I know the sweep factor is in effect with DET taking games 1 and 2!!
Some other thoughts for the Night slate:
Under 9.5 -122 Toronto and TB
There is some value IMO in the UNDER 9.5 in TB with Lilly opposing Shields. Shields appear to have regained his earlier form with some solid outings versus tough lineups. Lilly has 3 career starts in TB allowing 1 run in 18 innings and the Rays struggle vs LHP. Lilly was sharp in Minny this past weekend. The game has seen some strong UNDER money opening in some places at 10 and at 9.5 with heavy vig on the under we could see a 9 total. Wegner behind the dish is typically a low scoring UMP. TB is silumping with 3 runs or less in 6 straight , 4runs or less in 7 straight and 4runs o less in 8 of 10.
The Bad Blood Series: LAA @ Texas -112(also like the -1.5 Run Line@+169)
Only stat to focus on here is Texas hitting .310 this season vs LHP. Now Saunders has been impressive but the revenge matchup of him versus Eaton leads me to side with the first round loser. Eaton has pitched well this season outside of that outing where he was ejected rather early. The bad blood spilled over to tonite's game and look for the Rangers to get back on track after there streak ended with tonites 9-7 loss. Eaton has only 4 starts this year a start vs NY which started with 3 terrific innings before he tired in the fourth and two starts sandwiching his LAA episode in which he went 12 innings allowing 2 runs. For LAA Garett Anderson , MAcer Itzirus and Orlando Cabrera all listed as questionable.
Small play:
Over 8.5 -112 Oakland
Who knows what is up with Gil Meche who has fallen apart since the start at the (Yankee)Stadium. You dont want to be in a funk and have an OVER UMP behind the dish. Haren has been solid but I expect even the lowly Mariners to get 3 runs here. In saying this I am also making a case for Oakland -1.5 runs. Meche has allowed 48 runs in 67 1/3 road innings this year but Haren has pitched more then his share of low scoring home games
NL:
Muts -109 (-1.5 +141)
Did I say I liked the Muts on Tuesday?? Nah , I said I LUVED them well they must know I am NYYfan. I think Philly can be vulnerable to LHP and has shown that at times when Pat the BAT isnt stroking. Gimme Glavine to end the streak and put forward another solid effort vs Philly.
Have to entertain the UNDER 10 -107 here IMO Or 1st 5 Inning Under.
DBacks +105
We have to be impressed with Livan stringing together IMO 8 quality starts in 9 outings. He has pitched fairly decent at Coors recently and is an INNINGS eater (needed after 18 inning game). Cook himself can take his club deep but is 4-9 at Coors this year. With that in mind maybe a first 5 innings under is the PLAY as well.
OTHER NL thoughts
SFG -104
Lowry fairly solid recently and SD struggling against LHP(might be minus Piazza).
Reds +132
Edmonds could be out and a high price for a struggling youngster even if Arroyo is colder then Alaska.
Over 8.5 +111 Atlanta(makes sense to pay extra for 8 runs)
Smoltz is solid but tha pen is ??? lately. He has had some tough games at Wash recently. Traber is not to be trusted looks solid and then implodes.....there pen struggling as well. If you see 8 then jump on it.
Good Luck!
Pirates -110
Over 8.5 -114 LAD(strongest of the two)
Astros -220 (small) after the Cubs hard fought win.
First despite repeated LOSSES with Pittsburgh when opposing a LH SP 7-31 after todays loss and the absence of Bay we have value IMO. Duke has managed to lead the Pirates to wins in 7 of his 10 starts at home this year despite some issues in day games. Duke was rocked last time out vs Milwaukee but had started his career with 4 extremely solid outings versus them and I look for another start...Gorzelanny did well today. Capuano has been ripped in consecutive outings versus Pitt and has not had much sucess pitching at there Home Park. He has been fairly inconsistent lately and is not throwing like he did earlier.
The Over in LA is tricky but a day game helps IMO. Also Everitt (UMP) is 18-7 OVER with an 11.68 RUN average(if I recall correctly) and troubling 300++ pitch outing average= TIGHT ZONE. Hendrickson is always putting the wood on the ball and allows many baserunners. So far his time in DodgerLand especially at home has seen some tough outings. With Josh Johnson he was rocked recently by LAD who is smoking RHP of late and JJ has some troubles getting LHB's out. He does sport a wonderful road and day ERA. Except you dont ever know what that pen will do as he should max out at 7 innings and is at the stage where you wonder how consistent he will be due to fatigue(alot more innings then he may be used to in August). You never know what FLA's pen will give you ...remember that.
Here is an unknown trend:
Marlins shutout 4 times in 2006 and responded with 8 runs , 9 runs twice and 11 runs..........HMMMMMMMM.
Strong Play IMO as people will center on the names of the SP to much here. Dont forget that LAD smoked JJ in FLA already and LHB are a concern for him.
Tonite:
Boston Red Sox -103 (HUGE Play) also -1.5 Run Line @ +186 has nice value
It's funny you look at the matchup and think Wells stinks lets go Verlander then research comes into play.
Wells was solid last time out and prior to that some poor defense lead to 4 unearned runs @ TB but only 1 ER in 6innings. A somewhat different team then the one he faced last year but still had a solid effort versus.
Verlander is coming off a few weeks in whiuch he had a so-so start then was pushed back due to fatigue then allowed his highest hittotal of theyear 13 in 5 innings and was 'mentioned' that he had to be tipping his pitchings (according to Leyland). So do we expect a youngster to correctthat immediately....we shouldnt . If thats not the case then how big is this fatigue factor?? Last 2 outings 10 Innings , 21 Hits allowed 8runs and 7 earned(6.30ERA). Also it does seem that LHP is giving DET some trouble.....consecutive 4-3 defeats to Buerhle and Santana. They did beat an now known to beinjured Liriano 9-3 after defeating Sabathia 1-0. Also prior to that they beat Cliff Lee 7-6 but Lee held them scoreless thru 5(pulled in the 7th) and watched the pen implode as DET scored 7 in innings 6 thru 8.
While some might think my LOGIC is lunacy the fact that Boston is OFF on Thursday with NYY coming in for 5 games (yes , 5 games!!) creates a must win situation here. Oh and I know the sweep factor is in effect with DET taking games 1 and 2!!
Some other thoughts for the Night slate:
Under 9.5 -122 Toronto and TB
There is some value IMO in the UNDER 9.5 in TB with Lilly opposing Shields. Shields appear to have regained his earlier form with some solid outings versus tough lineups. Lilly has 3 career starts in TB allowing 1 run in 18 innings and the Rays struggle vs LHP. Lilly was sharp in Minny this past weekend. The game has seen some strong UNDER money opening in some places at 10 and at 9.5 with heavy vig on the under we could see a 9 total. Wegner behind the dish is typically a low scoring UMP. TB is silumping with 3 runs or less in 6 straight , 4runs or less in 7 straight and 4runs o less in 8 of 10.
The Bad Blood Series: LAA @ Texas -112(also like the -1.5 Run Line@+169)
Only stat to focus on here is Texas hitting .310 this season vs LHP. Now Saunders has been impressive but the revenge matchup of him versus Eaton leads me to side with the first round loser. Eaton has pitched well this season outside of that outing where he was ejected rather early. The bad blood spilled over to tonite's game and look for the Rangers to get back on track after there streak ended with tonites 9-7 loss. Eaton has only 4 starts this year a start vs NY which started with 3 terrific innings before he tired in the fourth and two starts sandwiching his LAA episode in which he went 12 innings allowing 2 runs. For LAA Garett Anderson , MAcer Itzirus and Orlando Cabrera all listed as questionable.
Small play:
Over 8.5 -112 Oakland
Who knows what is up with Gil Meche who has fallen apart since the start at the (Yankee)Stadium. You dont want to be in a funk and have an OVER UMP behind the dish. Haren has been solid but I expect even the lowly Mariners to get 3 runs here. In saying this I am also making a case for Oakland -1.5 runs. Meche has allowed 48 runs in 67 1/3 road innings this year but Haren has pitched more then his share of low scoring home games
NL:
Muts -109 (-1.5 +141)
Did I say I liked the Muts on Tuesday?? Nah , I said I LUVED them well they must know I am NYYfan. I think Philly can be vulnerable to LHP and has shown that at times when Pat the BAT isnt stroking. Gimme Glavine to end the streak and put forward another solid effort vs Philly.
Have to entertain the UNDER 10 -107 here IMO Or 1st 5 Inning Under.
DBacks +105
We have to be impressed with Livan stringing together IMO 8 quality starts in 9 outings. He has pitched fairly decent at Coors recently and is an INNINGS eater (needed after 18 inning game). Cook himself can take his club deep but is 4-9 at Coors this year. With that in mind maybe a first 5 innings under is the PLAY as well.
OTHER NL thoughts
SFG -104
Lowry fairly solid recently and SD struggling against LHP(might be minus Piazza).
Reds +132
Edmonds could be out and a high price for a struggling youngster even if Arroyo is colder then Alaska.
Over 8.5 +111 Atlanta(makes sense to pay extra for 8 runs)
Smoltz is solid but tha pen is ??? lately. He has had some tough games at Wash recently. Traber is not to be trusted looks solid and then implodes.....there pen struggling as well. If you see 8 then jump on it.
Good Luck!
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