Thursday Thoughts ( Lots of Day starts)

Well hopefully if you read my Wed post you saw that I was heavy on 3 games Boston , Over Fla and Texas all which won and both sides won on the Run Lines as well. The rest of the plays were so-so but some nice dogs who all hit on the ARL in Cincy , SF and Arizona for great payouts. The totals suffered on the smaller plays

It's a new day with more work ahead:

Under 10.5 NYY and Baltimore +110 (@ pinnacle sports) (medium strength)

Okay we have two back end of the rotation type SP going today but still two arms who are pitching well of late. Wright has managed to lead NY to wins in all of his last 3 starts and Rodrigo has done so in 2 of 3 for Baltimore. We all know Jaret Wright will only be given the chance to 6 innings so his last 3 starts span only 16 and 1/3 innings. In which he allowed only 3 runs ( 1 each start) to Tor , Balt and LAA. Wright has been solid in Day starts going 5-1 with a 3.51 ERA and seeing 5 unders and a push in those games. At home despite a 4.68 ERA he has an 7-2-1 UNDER mark most likely due to his ability to pitch out of jams , get grounders and keep the ball in the park. In two '06 starts against BALT he has lasted 12 innings( 6 both times) and allowed 4 runs (3 earned).

NowLopez has really struggled on the road and that is a major concern here 2-6 7.22 ERA. His last 3 starts have seen him spin 20 + innings and allow 7 runs (3.10 ERA) with a 17K to 2 BB ratio. He pitched fairly well verus NYY recently but they made him pay for his mistakes crushing 4 SOLO Hr's. Now he also had a long relief outing vs Boston that was decent 3 runs in 4 and 2/3 innings. Now most times I wouldnt say decent for that line but in this situation if Lopez went 5 Innings and allowed 3 runs or 6 inn and allowed 4 runs I would be very happy. Despite his road struggles he is 6 -3 UNDER on the road. Also his last 5 outings in NY have been either excellent or bombings....3 starts allowing 4 runs in 22++ innings or the other two allowing 18 runs (13 earned ) in 7++ innings...HIT or MISS for him.

There are alot of UNDER trends for the squads backing this up plus Balt's inability to score runs versus NYY lately. The NYY pen continues to improve as we have been pitching well and now added Dotel to the mix( could be a bad thing though) and Balts pen is inconsistent . O's are 8- 3 UNDER in August , NYY is 11-3 UNDER in AUG and 11-4 in the 2nd Half versus teams with losing records , NYY is 36-24 UNDER at the STADIUM , and both SP have seen unders in there past 3 starts. O's 10-4 Under last 14 day games and 19-7 UNDER for NYY last 26 @ Home. Bucknor is calling ball and strikes and while many might disagree with me I think he is a neutral UMP. In regard to overs and unders. He has seemed to had mostly games with totals above 9 runs which I think has more to do with his 10 + run average.

Mets -116 and RL +137 (medium strength)

Lets not breakout the BULLSHIT for this one. For a logical standpoint you never want to drop 4 games to a divisonal rival no matter how many games up you are on them. Simply put cause you dont want to let them build any momentum. Maine and Mathieson already sqaured off with NY winning 8-1. I HATE return engagements where the same SP square off again in a short period of time. Due to teh situation though I will ride it. Maine has been terrific of late and well MAthieson has lost 5 of his 6 starts. The biggest knock I can make on Maine is his most of his starts where at home so somewhat untested when he travels and Mathieson for his rough numbers he has 2 solid outing sat home in three games. NY is 21- 6 there last 27 daygames (philly 9-3 past 12 day)and I believe only lost 4 or more consecutive games on 1 occassion this year. Want to say UNDER in this one but it seems that there is some heavy fow that way and a high vig -121 for the U 10 runs.....

Twinkies -106 (RL +178 for a little value) (somewhat lesser then the first two )
UNDER 10 +103

Really not much to go on here. Garza is a STUD rookie SP making his second ML start. It has been reported that the kid was visibly nervous and shaken before his first ML start. So hopefully the jitters are now gne and we get a glimpse of hwat he can do. Cleveland is on a 10-2 Under daystreak and Minny has dropped 8 straight unders. Cousins has had 6 totals of 10 or higher and 5 went Under so small play on the UNder 10 +103 as well.

Byrd has great day numbers but the sun dont shine in a DOME. However he has been fairly strong in his career in the Metrodome but has lost 2 of his last 3 starst there including a July meeting. I expect a decent outing again from Byrd but the Tribe pen is shaky right now. I think Garza puts in a real strong performance and 10 Runs at the DOME is high.

1 PM starts:
Under 10.5 NYY
NYM -116 (and RL for value)
Twins -106 (and some RL for value)
Under 10 +103 Minny

all medium plays....



Well a so-so start to the afternoon and now time is short. In the same realm of strength as the Twinkies plays:


Colorado +124
Over 9 +105


There is a 3:30 start as well in SD which I find tough. Peavy is looking for revenge here and is starting to resemble the Jake Peavy we all expected. However in 2006 he has failed to pitch well at PETCO and has been a disaster in day starts. Cain has been solid versus SD in his short career but has seen some bad days when he pitches on the road. Real low total thanks to the sluggish offenses and the respect peavy gets. I owuld say that Over 7.5 +101 is a real small ( marginal ) play if you are looking for something. The home plate Ump Jim Joyce is fairly thight and sees about 10 runs per start....SF also has an up and down Bullpen to aid this. Lets see what happens.

Part II : Night Edition

Rangers +126 (small to medium type- same as Colorado and Twins plays) ARL @ +190 for some value

Okay this is a stretch but I feel that in many ways the house wants your money on DET. First the Tigers were struggling dropping 5 straight before a well played series @ Fenway where they won 2 of 3. Now hey come home and have Kenny Rogers on the hill versus somehwhat unknown but certainly unproven Edison Volquez. Who was okay his 1st start but solid his second outing vs Seattle. Now with Polanco out and Volquez possible being something to look forward to this creates an interesting matchup. Texas has won 6 of 7 and is playing better on the road then at home. for as good as the 'Gambler' has been at home this season he is still only 4-1 meaning that his run support isnt very good(4.8 per). Texas has crushed LHP last few games see Saunders and Zito .....

Take a chance on the Rangers here....best team in baseball record wise laying 130 to -140 at home....??? Think about it. Rogers has gone 6 or more just three times in his past 9 starts and has a 5.30 ERA at nite

Under 8.5 -119 Toronto and TB( also like Und 4.5 -108 1st 5 Innings) (small)

Just thinking that the past outings for both show these two could be about to go on a run. Despite hitting LHP fairly well the Jays havent had success against Kazmir who sports a 2.10 ERA @ Trop this season. Burnett has been inconsistent all year especially in road starts so be cautious. However he does sport real solid numbers vs TB in his career and has enjoyed solid outings at TROP in his career. Hopefully his last 7 inning outing is a sign AJ Burnett is finally healthy and ready to contribute consistently. Having Marvin Hudson behind teh dish seems to be a plus for the under as well. A undisciplined lineup like TB should IMO struggle versus the power of AJ with that sharp curve as well.

Mariners +163(small play)
The shot in the dark type play. Moyer should not be this big a dog here IMO. Escobar is inconsistent and with a medocore track record vs the Mariners. For whatever reason the road team has done extremely well this year in the series and Seattle before being swept at home had own the LAA 2006 squad. They had won 7 of 9 and 5 of 6 in LAA. Moyer pitches good enough to keep his team around when he travels to LA and was decent in his 4-0 loss at Safeco. Seattle cant continue to lose to divisional opponents at this rate unless they have quit...dont think they have....take a shot !


NFL Preseason

NY Giants -3 -110
Might seem to easy but I have to play this. KC severly lacks teh depth that NY has to offer IMO and that is teh main reason I like it. NY also getting some veterans in the mix while KC doesnt have much depth at QB , RB or WR IMO. Would really love to hammer this one but again seems to easy and that scares me....have to love QB competition!!!

Okay thats all for Thursday......IF I had to and I dont and wont I would guess Houston , Under 8.5 Houston and over 34.5 Ravens!