Here is todays overview:

Pirates -110

Over 8.5 -114 LAD(strongest of the two)

Astros -220 (small) after the Cubs hard fought win.

First despite repeated LOSSES with Pittsburgh when opposing a LH SP 7-31 after todays loss and the absence of Bay we have value IMO. Duke has managed to lead the Pirates to wins in 7 of his 10 starts at home this year despite some issues in day games. Duke was rocked last time out vs Milwaukee but had started his career with 4 extremely solid outings versus them and I look for another start...Gorzelanny did well today. Capuano has been ripped in consecutive outings versus Pitt and has not had much sucess pitching at there Home Park. He has been fairly inconsistent lately and is not throwing like he did earlier.

The Over in LA is tricky but a day game helps IMO. Also Everitt (UMP) is 18-7 OVER with an 11.68 RUN average(if I recall correctly) and troubling 300++ pitch outing average= TIGHT ZONE. Hendrickson is always putting the wood on the ball and allows many baserunners. So far his time in DodgerLand especially at home has seen some tough outings. With Josh Johnson he was rocked recently by LAD who is smoking RHP of late and JJ has some troubles getting LHB's out. He does sport a wonderful road and day ERA. Except you dont ever know what that pen will do as he should max out at 7 innings and is at the stage where you wonder how consistent he will be due to fatigue(alot more innings then he may be used to in August). You never know what FLA's pen will give you ...remember that.

Here is an unknown trend:

Marlins shutout 4 times in 2006 and responded with 8 runs , 9 runs twice and 11 runs..........HMMMMMMMM.

Strong Play IMO as people will center on the names of the SP to much here. Dont forget that LAD smoked JJ in FLA already and LHB are a concern for him.

Tonite:

Boston Red Sox -103 (HUGE Play) also -1.5 Run Line @ +186 has nice value

It's funny you look at the matchup and think Wells stinks lets go Verlander then research comes into play.

Wells was solid last time out and prior to that some poor defense lead to 4 unearned runs @ TB but only 1 ER in 6innings. A somewhat different team then the one he faced last year but still had a solid effort versus.

Verlander is coming off a few weeks in whiuch he had a so-so start then was pushed back due to fatigue then allowed his highest hittotal of theyear 13 in 5 innings and was 'mentioned' that he had to be tipping his pitchings (according to Leyland). So do we expect a youngster to correctthat immediately....we shouldnt . If thats not the case then how big is this fatigue factor?? Last 2 outings 10 Innings , 21 Hits allowed 8runs and 7 earned(6.30ERA). Also it does seem that LHP is giving DET some trouble.....consecutive 4-3 defeats to Buerhle and Santana. They did beat an now known to beinjured Liriano 9-3 after defeating Sabathia 1-0. Also prior to that they beat Cliff Lee 7-6 but Lee held them scoreless thru 5(pulled in the 7th) and watched the pen implode as DET scored 7 in innings 6 thru 8.

While some might think my LOGIC is lunacy the fact that Boston is OFF on Thursday with NYY coming in for 5 games (yes , 5 games!!) creates a must win situation here. Oh and I know the sweep factor is in effect with DET taking games 1 and 2!!


Some other thoughts for the Night slate:

Under 9.5 -122 Toronto and TB

There is some value IMO in the UNDER 9.5 in TB with Lilly opposing Shields. Shields appear to have regained his earlier form with some solid outings versus tough lineups. Lilly has 3 career starts in TB allowing 1 run in 18 innings and the Rays struggle vs LHP. Lilly was sharp in Minny this past weekend. The game has seen some strong UNDER money opening in some places at 10 and at 9.5 with heavy vig on the under we could see a 9 total. Wegner behind the dish is typically a low scoring UMP. TB is silumping with 3 runs or less in 6 straight , 4runs or less in 7 straight and 4runs o less in 8 of 10.

The Bad Blood Series: LAA @ Texas -112(also like the -1.5 Run Line@+169)

Only stat to focus on here is Texas hitting .310 this season vs LHP. Now Saunders has been impressive but the revenge matchup of him versus Eaton leads me to side with the first round loser. Eaton has pitched well this season outside of that outing where he was ejected rather early. The bad blood spilled over to tonite's game and look for the Rangers to get back on track after there streak ended with tonites 9-7 loss. Eaton has only 4 starts this year a start vs NY which started with 3 terrific innings before he tired in the fourth and two starts sandwiching his LAA episode in which he went 12 innings allowing 2 runs. For LAA Garett Anderson , MAcer Itzirus and Orlando Cabrera all listed as questionable.


Small play:
Over 8.5 -112 Oakland

Who knows what is up with Gil Meche who has fallen apart since the start at the (Yankee)Stadium. You dont want to be in a funk and have an OVER UMP behind the dish. Haren has been solid but I expect even the lowly Mariners to get 3 runs here. In saying this I am also making a case for Oakland -1.5 runs. Meche has allowed 48 runs in 67 1/3 road innings this year but Haren has pitched more then his share of low scoring home games

NL:

Muts -109 (-1.5 +141)

Did I say I liked the Muts on Tuesday?? Nah , I said I LUVED them well they must know I am NYYfan. I think Philly can be vulnerable to LHP and has shown that at times when Pat the BAT isnt stroking. Gimme Glavine to end the streak and put forward another solid effort vs Philly.

Have to entertain the UNDER 10 -107 here IMO Or 1st 5 Inning Under.

DBacks +105

We have to be impressed with Livan stringing together IMO 8 quality starts in 9 outings. He has pitched fairly decent at Coors recently and is an INNINGS eater (needed after 18 inning game). Cook himself can take his club deep but is 4-9 at Coors this year. With that in mind maybe a first 5 innings under is the PLAY as well.

OTHER NL thoughts

SFG -104

Lowry fairly solid recently and SD struggling against LHP(might be minus Piazza).

Reds +132

Edmonds could be out and a high price for a struggling youngster even if Arroyo is colder then Alaska.

Over 8.5 +111 Atlanta(makes sense to pay extra for 8 runs)
Smoltz is solid but tha pen is ??? lately. He has had some tough games at Wash recently. Traber is not to be trusted looks solid and then implodes.....there pen struggling as well. If you see 8 then jump on it.

Good Luck!