Monday Thoughts

Under 11 -110 New York and Boston
(strong)
This isnt some it's due theory play. My feeling is we see that both teams have rested some players and switched up there lineups. We know both teams loaded with vets playing an emotionally draining series and they didnt get finsihed till about 1:30 AM last nite....not muc sleep.

For NY they started out like gangbusters in day games but have since slowly slowed down. Giambi is resting and his numbers are monsterous during the day , not to mention probably our hottest hitter. NY has 3 key hitters in the Cano , Abreu , Giambi and Damon but they are all LH(the later are resting as well). That comes to mind with Wells on the hill. Wells has been better his last few outings and the key is keep his team in teh game which I believe the Rubber Armed Lefty will do...keep his team around and eat some innings. After all he generally pitched very well against the Yankees. You know Schilling was amped up for the start last nite well Wells will bring that same intensity IMO.

Last few seasons Lidle has been noticeably beetr in his day outings and IMO pitched fairly well past 10 starts or so and ben able to go deeper in games. The Yanks then can turn it over to Farnsworth and Mariano who both have sub 1 ERA's during the day. Last year Wells was awful in his day starts which was sort of out of character but extremely tough at Fenway. this year this will be his first day start. Boston has some hitters with good day splits Hinske , Loretta , Manny and Ortiz (when dont they hit well!!) which could giv them the edge.

I wont even give a game Prediction cause I was wrong the first times , right last nite but didnt post anything so I will stay away. If not for the strong day splits for Boston's "slumping " (IMO) lineup I would say NY but those numbers scare me. However Like the Under as I think NY cools off today

NIGHT GAMES:

Well the Yanks got the amazing 5 game sweep and won 2-1.

Marlins +124 (medium)

Well this is a tough call on the surface But here is what I saw. First Anibal Sanchez is a veteran of 9 career ML starts and this tonite will be his tenth but also fourth alreay versus Washington. Which means they have seen just about everything he has and worse in a short period of time (5 weeks or so). You have to think there will be acertain comfort level for Wash facing him AGAIN. The key was that Wshington plays well when theytravel to Florida and that Traber has been serviceable in 3 of his 4 starts to date. Traber is LH and that is causing the Marlins some trouble this year 11-19 overall and just 5-8 at Pro Player. The real eye popper is the .237 BAA when facing a LHP in Pro Player.

So basically I see a decent LHP facing a team struggling to produce runs against LHP, who is facing a SP for the fourth team basically since the All Star break and where the road team has played exceptional well past 10 visits and for that I got a play at PLUS MONEY!

Not much concrete but IMO a true VALUE play....a coin flip with decent ++money(try out the ARL as well!

A's -116 {small to medium strength}
Just think Haren is throwing the ball extremely well and has had success against Toronto. People will look at the line and think its off but Haren was favored both trips to Skydome . Oakland will be facing its 6 th LH starter in 11 games and they have won 4 of the earlier 5. Lilly is inconsistent and I think has struggled somewhat lately and doesnt take them deep enough into games. Toronto's pen has been real solid but so has Oaklands even with Street now missing. Toronto coming back from a long road trip should also be somewhat flat in there first game back.

Over 8.5 -104 Det and Chicago
Seems like an odd play ....Contreras hasnt been sharp on the road road recently dropping 4 of his last 5 starts(Chicago has dropped). He has lost 6 of 9 away for his WSOx and 7 of the past 8 have sailed over. The con of this arguement is how well Jose has pitched vs DET this season (6ers in 31 innings spanning 4 starts and last year three of fours starts were extremely solid. Here again I think a SP is pitching vs the same team just to many times in such a short period as this will be Jose 3rd appearance versus them in the past month and fifth of the season. Verlander is a question mark right now...is he fatigued or tipping his pitches? Two things are for sure he has been excellent at home but also gets alot of run support and he has been dreadful in 3 career outings against the Sox...15earned in 13 2/3 innings over 3 starts this year!! The DET pen is usally tough but Chicago's has sprung a few leaks of late.

Det -111

This is one of those plays that on paper says Chicago is easy ! Contreras has owned DET and the Tigers are slumping while Verlander cant pitch effectively lately and has dropped all 3 career starts. Then again thats why they play the games but truth a nice bounce back start with a kid who has been tough at home....

Under 5 1st 5 Innings +100 (small) even the Under 9 +119 is attractive.

Basically Rich Hill is a youngster who has dominanted the minors and struggled some in the majors. He has 3 solid home starts this yr in 4 outings but the road has been a problem. Good thing he is at Wrigley facing a LH heavy order who doesnt hit LH well (think 237 away). Leiber has loved August and he has spun 3 excellent startsspanning 27 innings allowed 16 hits , 7 runs only 3 earned. The innings is important as Flash is unavailable.

Was thinking about Pettitte and the Stros today but ultimaley passed so hating that 2-0 lead early . With LAD right now its impossible to fade them so either play the Dodgers or pass I did. Last game is Arizona and SF and I am still looking at this but really think Arizona is going to be my play.

GL