Well my Yankees went down in flames yeterday. Its rea.lly not the upset its being made out to be. It was CC Sabathia on the hill and we do have a lackluster away record vs LHSP. Anyway my gripe is with Joe Torre and the media. It's the managers and coaching staff sole job to put his players in a position to succeed. Well letting Wang have 8 or 9 days bewteen starts is a RECIPE for disaster. We all know that such extended rest for a sinkerballer is a disaster waiting to happen. So why didnt Joe better set up his playof rotation?? Cause Joe does the same shit all the time , he hopes for the bst cause he is managing a roster full of All Stars. Well in l;ife hoping doesnt get you very much. Just ask his disiciple Willie Randolph at Shea. Guility of the aame crime. So IMO the game was lost when you had Wang on anything more then 6 days rest. Case closed! Has nothing to do with Wang so called suspect numebrs on the road...nothing!! Well Carmona is a similiar pitcher with his power to seamer arsenal. Wedge could be making the same mistake as Carmona has been rested since 9/26. I made a mistake taking such a low UNDER 8.5 / 9 in that situation. Alot of thing spointed to an over. However with roughly the same caliber SPs and available relievers we have a 9.5 / 10 total. Thats some value even with Carmona being a bit of a concern. You figure US Yankees are desperate. That means any close game could see Joba and Mo for 3 maybe even 4 innings of work with an off day on Saturday.
Numbers we have Pettitte winning 5-3 @ the Jake vs Westbrook and getting a 10 total. We have Laz Diaz 8.50 runs per game past 2 seasons and 22-14 UNDER this season. Of note Pettitte in the past has good career numbers when Diaz is behind the dish 5-1 record with the only loss being Scutaro walkoff HR vs Rivera. Sometrhing liek 14 runs in those 6 games by the opponents. This is basically a late day game where carmona had a 2.14 ERA and 9-1 record( 8-4 UNDER). Pettitte was 7-3 UNDER in the day and excluding his last start @ Balt had solid numbers. I think this is 5-3 or 5-4 game.....
In the early game like yanks but not the price so much. Might go with Yanks +110 series cause if we win here I like our chances....Shadows could play into this....
So far UNDER 10 runs ( 9.5 is good as well) GL
Side Note : NYY is 15-4 this year after allowing 10 runs. Which tells me they bounce back after bad beats. Remember the 19-1 drubbing Cle laid on us in 2006?? We won the next day!!! This year we are also 7-11-1 O/U in those 10 runs + situations. With the total in the 9 and 9.5 range (currently 9.5 runs here) Yanks 24-33 and Cle 31-44. Cle 20-28 O/U when facing LH's. We know about Pettitte's playoff pedigree and his Yankee stopper status. Cle is 13-23 o/u facing a team ith a winning record since the break and NYY is 23-12 in these situations SU. If I have this correct le is something like 53-89 O/U past 3 years in the day and I believe 12-31 o/u this season....also Carmona and Hughes total was 9.5 ....the price is justr to high for NYY for me...despite 4-0 in the ALDS after losing game 1 and game 2 of a series record 33-18 vs Cle 28-23...
What a fucking game!!! Props to both SP tonite. I cant believe those flies at the JAKE....seriously WTF is that ?? Thats how you beat Joba I guess. Let the flies loose and disrupt him on the mound...bottomline is 1 runs wasnt going to win the game...lets GO YANKEES!!!
I got tied up and the game just kicked off. Was really looking hard at the UNDER 62 / 63 but decided to pass. Had thought about the 1st half UNDER 31 as well. For some reason I was just scared to pull the trigger. Just looking at what the Ville has done outside of Murray State I dont think laying 2 TDS vs an improving Utah squad had value.
So I took the UTES +14.5...waiting to see what the Half score obviously I will be kicking myself if its lows like I thought...
Still thinking about the Over 9 @ Boston...same total as last nite with more question marks from the SP and Vlad better when he plays RF and the lineup is deeper with Rivera or Morales IMO...
Well upon further review I think both lineups have failed to see these SP which is a big plus for Dice K. Escobar last few @ Fenway have been solid. I think Escobars little rut was shoulder fatigue and he seemed solid @ Oak on Sat. I think we see a 5-4 game here worst case so I would only recommend an UNDER if you had 9.5...played it very small...very...almost not worth mentioning...really what drove me was the over reliance of recent stats from many people looking at this game...you have to understand why things happen IMO.......BOL GO YANKEES!!
Friday, October 05, 2007
Thursday, October 04, 2007
Day 1 of the 2007 MLB playoffs went largely as I had expected. No real suprises IMO.
Today we start with Col @ Philly once again. Alot being made of the Phillies displeasure with the time slot they have been given due to the shadows. The funny thing is Philly has played a few 3 PM day games at home this year and put some runs up if I recall correctly. I do think its in there head some but really someone should reveal the proper data to them. It may be harder to see the ball but there performance hasnt been really affected that much.
One thing I see is both pitchers dont tend to go deep in games . Kendrick tends to be the 90 pitch count area while Morales is more like 80. Not sure if they will be extended beyond that but if it is notthen by the top of the 7th both pens should be involved. Kendrick has been hit in his 2 starts vs COL. while Morales blanked Philly through 5 @ Citizens. One note with Morales is team seeing him a 2nd time have hit him harder then the first. See SFG and LAD who had a fairly different lineup. So I think that maybe some of his success is due to people not getting a look at him. Philly has seen him and I expect him to get hit today. Though Ed Hickox tends to be an UNDER umpire this year the one thing I see is ONLY 10 of his 31 starts had totals of 10 to 11 runs. Showing me he had a lot of good SP matchups evidenced by his 5.5 runs per game allowed by starters when he is calling strikes. Previous season he lends to be biased towards overs and was 19-11 OVER with 10.30 ++ runs per game.
Two young SP with somewhat overworked bullpens should lead to runs being scored today. Yesterday we saw a bunch of HRS but they were solo shots. The ball will carry.
So while I like Philly here I think Over 10 runs -120 presents more value. Thats my initial play for today. Looking at the UNDER @ Cleveland if I can get 9 runs ....GL
In the evening game we travel to the JAKE as Wang squares off against Sabathia. While the NYY have struggled all season on the road vs LHP they have improved of late. However IMO they still do not hit quality LHP that well and will have 5 true LHB in the lineup. While AROD has good carer numbers vs CC they came years ago. Sabathia has rounded into the stud we thought he would be when he arrived on the scene. This year Arods 275 vs LHP doesnt look imposing. Check those away games vs Bedard , Kazmir , Francis , etc and see not many runs scored my us. Its really not a new thing since we basically switched from Sheff to Abreu in RF mid season 2006.
One thing under the radar will be the numebrs Wang sports when he starts with more then regular reat ( more then 5 days). In 10 starts this season he he is 7-1 3.11 ERA with a 257 BAA. Last year he was 6-1 2.70 ERA in 9 starts with a 244 BAA. Not to forget are his excellent numebrs under the lights : 25-5 3.50 ERA past 2 years!!!
Really we all know how good both guys can be. Mix in the fact that Cle didnt come into the series on fire offensively it should help Wang even more. NYY did come in red hot offensively but facing a different class of pitcher. Both guys have strong options in the pen here with Jo Bo being the exception closing it for Cle. I prefer the NYY here but not sure about price. If for some reason NYY went to even money or better I might bite. Till the UNDER 9 is my play here.....GL
So pissed at myself for missing out on the fact that Wang had NOT pitched since 9/26 . Thats why to much for a sinkerballer even one who throws 95 MPH....Not saying I owuld have played the OVER but I would have laid off the UNDER ofr sure.....details, details , details....my bad!!
Staying away from the late game I thought the line should have been chi -120 / 8.5 hich is basicaly where it is. So I passed as I missed out on the value at Under 9 and Ari +130 or better. Anyway went with Over 28 or 28.5 in the South Carolin game. A few silly mistakes have cost the teams points. The fumble going in on the 1 , the bad Woodson toss INT in the end zone , couple a short FGs. Woodson got his bell rung but I believe he is okay to big a stage to not try and seize the moment IMO. We could see OT. Alot of things aid an over here. My belief was 1st H under 28.5 and then 2nd H over . To bad I didnt play that way....GL
Today we start with Col @ Philly once again. Alot being made of the Phillies displeasure with the time slot they have been given due to the shadows. The funny thing is Philly has played a few 3 PM day games at home this year and put some runs up if I recall correctly. I do think its in there head some but really someone should reveal the proper data to them. It may be harder to see the ball but there performance hasnt been really affected that much.
One thing I see is both pitchers dont tend to go deep in games . Kendrick tends to be the 90 pitch count area while Morales is more like 80. Not sure if they will be extended beyond that but if it is notthen by the top of the 7th both pens should be involved. Kendrick has been hit in his 2 starts vs COL. while Morales blanked Philly through 5 @ Citizens. One note with Morales is team seeing him a 2nd time have hit him harder then the first. See SFG and LAD who had a fairly different lineup. So I think that maybe some of his success is due to people not getting a look at him. Philly has seen him and I expect him to get hit today. Though Ed Hickox tends to be an UNDER umpire this year the one thing I see is ONLY 10 of his 31 starts had totals of 10 to 11 runs. Showing me he had a lot of good SP matchups evidenced by his 5.5 runs per game allowed by starters when he is calling strikes. Previous season he lends to be biased towards overs and was 19-11 OVER with 10.30 ++ runs per game.
Two young SP with somewhat overworked bullpens should lead to runs being scored today. Yesterday we saw a bunch of HRS but they were solo shots. The ball will carry.
So while I like Philly here I think Over 10 runs -120 presents more value. Thats my initial play for today. Looking at the UNDER @ Cleveland if I can get 9 runs ....GL
In the evening game we travel to the JAKE as Wang squares off against Sabathia. While the NYY have struggled all season on the road vs LHP they have improved of late. However IMO they still do not hit quality LHP that well and will have 5 true LHB in the lineup. While AROD has good carer numbers vs CC they came years ago. Sabathia has rounded into the stud we thought he would be when he arrived on the scene. This year Arods 275 vs LHP doesnt look imposing. Check those away games vs Bedard , Kazmir , Francis , etc and see not many runs scored my us. Its really not a new thing since we basically switched from Sheff to Abreu in RF mid season 2006.
One thing under the radar will be the numebrs Wang sports when he starts with more then regular reat ( more then 5 days). In 10 starts this season he he is 7-1 3.11 ERA with a 257 BAA. Last year he was 6-1 2.70 ERA in 9 starts with a 244 BAA. Not to forget are his excellent numebrs under the lights : 25-5 3.50 ERA past 2 years!!!
Really we all know how good both guys can be. Mix in the fact that Cle didnt come into the series on fire offensively it should help Wang even more. NYY did come in red hot offensively but facing a different class of pitcher. Both guys have strong options in the pen here with Jo Bo being the exception closing it for Cle. I prefer the NYY here but not sure about price. If for some reason NYY went to even money or better I might bite. Till the UNDER 9 is my play here.....GL
So pissed at myself for missing out on the fact that Wang had NOT pitched since 9/26 . Thats why to much for a sinkerballer even one who throws 95 MPH....Not saying I owuld have played the OVER but I would have laid off the UNDER ofr sure.....details, details , details....my bad!!
Staying away from the late game I thought the line should have been chi -120 / 8.5 hich is basicaly where it is. So I passed as I missed out on the value at Under 9 and Ari +130 or better. Anyway went with Over 28 or 28.5 in the South Carolin game. A few silly mistakes have cost the teams points. The fumble going in on the 1 , the bad Woodson toss INT in the end zone , couple a short FGs. Woodson got his bell rung but I believe he is okay to big a stage to not try and seize the moment IMO. We could see OT. Alot of things aid an over here. My belief was 1st H under 28.5 and then 2nd H over . To bad I didnt play that way....GL
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Well Marshall really shot themselves in the foot last nite. Absolutely awful gameplanning in the 1st Half with the playing call in the 1st quarter and the questionable decision to not run the ball with 3 minutes remaining till hbalf. Then second half fumbles inside the twenty and on the FG cost them an easy SU win. They arent very good but Mem did exactly what I thought they would realy stopping Mem on just 1 drive over the final 3 quarters...ML lost , +3 pushed and +3.5 won..depending on how u played it. The 1st H was low scoring and at 28 created nice value in 2nd H over.
Early baseball playoffs...short on time at the moment...
One thing overlooked is Jeff Francis solid numbers in day starts most of which have been in Aug and Sept. he stunk up twice vs Philly but they were nite starts. Not an excuse but not entirely the same situation IMO. Since his last bad outing at Philly he has been solid 3 straight. I dont think COL pen is that worn out as most pitchers went 1 inning with low pitch counts.
The Rocks could be drained and really didnt hit the SD pen till Hoffmann came in. Funny when you look at Peavy and Hoffmann as the two sure things from SD. Anyway bot teams lackluster numbers vs LHP. Rocks only 252 away and have never seen Hamels off a 116 pitch dominant outing. High pitch count is concerning but he says he is okay. Only 233 last 10 but no LH starters in that mix. Philly 272 at home vs LHP and 212 last 10 struggling vs Matt Chico recently.
Francis in road day starts allowed 8 runs in 36 2/3 innings spanning 5 starts. So the pen may not be such a concern anyway.
Hamels some minor issues in day starts in his early career. Just not sure 2 April home starts carry much weight as well as 1st start after the break. TGhe only other home day start was recently vs Wash which was solid and nats do hit LHP fairly well. He is 10-3 3.22 ERA in 17 starts on regular rest. Where Francis is 12-5 in 22 starts with a 3.62 ERA on regular rest. Long rest he was a 5.74 ERA and 314 BAA..check cbssportsline for the complete breakdown.
Anyway I prefer the Under looking for 9.5 but will take 9 especially at even. I feel 8.5 is the fair total here. Also see value in Col +1.5 runs and Under 1st 5 innings.....
Good Luck be back later!!
Tough matchup @ Fenway. I have this line much closer to -130 though. My concern about making this a value play is that Matthews is OUT hurting the LAA defense. Vlad is banged up relegated to DH which puts a banged up Figgins in RF. My point is the inflated line due to health issues like what we saw when the Pats traveled to Cincy on Monday?? Hoping its the perception of Lackey @ Fenway.
Sure Boston has the better lineup and Lackey has issues @ Fenway. Heres my deal though look at Lackeys numbers 2005 -2007 only. Basically cause that is the guy toeing the rubber tonite. Both SP have a long ago history of being money pitchers in the playoffs. The stats still arent great BUT take out Lackeys last outing which came after a nite game @ Tor and was a 1PM start in Fenway. Plus Lackeys day splits not so sharp this season. His other stats are serviceable like 6 inn 3 run types.
Lackey is 11-5( team 12-5) 2.73ERA away and 15-5 (17-5)2.55ERA at nite. Beckett is 9-5 (10-7) 4.17 ERA and 11-6(11-8) 3.71 ERA at nite . Really you want Beckett in the day on the road cause thats where his numbers are strongest. Also there is a misconception out there that Manny and Papi OWN Lackey. Its again not the past 3 seasons...they hit him well but Manny 4/12 and Papi 5/13 with I think 1 Hr combined isnt all that alarming....Lowell only 3/12 lifetime.
So played at +160 think +150 or better is very nice value. The total is a headache. I do think UNDER @ 9 looks tempting. What scares me is both guys allow enough hits where 1 mistake could be 3 runs. Both guys have proven to be bulls in the postseason and on the season.So leaning towards that UNDER but not sure...GL
Still thinking about that late game in Zona . Did play the Cubbies to win the series though based on Zambrano , Hill and Lilly with a solid pen outside of closer Dempster. Easily the better lineup on paper.
The CFB game. Lets see 3rd string QB who is a redshirt freshman making his 1st start. Oh and the line didnt budge...I have to think that normally that would call for a line adjustment. Its easy to see Fletcher running wild on Rice and the Eagle defense stepping up after last week. So if I had to guess I would say SoMiss wins 38-14. Based mainly on Rice being awful on the road facing an angry defense. Oh and the linesmakers telling you while we havent seen M.Young play we are confident enough to hold the line...simple logic.....GL
Well the value play on LAA was a sucker bet plain and simple. Rarely do I feel fooled when looking at a game. Like I mentioned earlier was the inflated line a bi-product of way to much Boston love OR a sign of just how banged up LAA is and how flat they would be. We now know the answer. Just very disappointed I didnt play the UNDER at 9 runs. Even liking LAA there only shot at winning was a low scoring game.
As for the CFB game so far I am clueless there it seems. Funny I guess. The line most of held 21 cause Reeves played!! Well that logical analysis was thrown out the window quickly. The Eagles look flat from what I have seen . You almost have to entertain a 2nd H over here.
The last order of business is although I like Chicago the line has been pounded to the point where all the value is sucked out of them. I dont like Chi at +115 dont exactly like Arizona but dont like the price here. What I did was play the late UNDER. You look at Zambrano away and his numbers are so solid along with his nite data. Webb has been tough at home and sports a very inexperienced postseason lineup facing a pitcher they really havent ever faced . Who happens to be inconsistent but Cy worthy on many nites. Webb is a former Cy Young winner. Both SP hold rHB to a 200baa......late nite UNDER 7.5 Runs....welcome to the playoffs. GL
After further review I actually think Southern Miss may be done here. No idea what to take 2nd H and would only lean UNDER and Rice +8.5...GL
Early baseball playoffs...short on time at the moment...
One thing overlooked is Jeff Francis solid numbers in day starts most of which have been in Aug and Sept. he stunk up twice vs Philly but they were nite starts. Not an excuse but not entirely the same situation IMO. Since his last bad outing at Philly he has been solid 3 straight. I dont think COL pen is that worn out as most pitchers went 1 inning with low pitch counts.
The Rocks could be drained and really didnt hit the SD pen till Hoffmann came in. Funny when you look at Peavy and Hoffmann as the two sure things from SD. Anyway bot teams lackluster numbers vs LHP. Rocks only 252 away and have never seen Hamels off a 116 pitch dominant outing. High pitch count is concerning but he says he is okay. Only 233 last 10 but no LH starters in that mix. Philly 272 at home vs LHP and 212 last 10 struggling vs Matt Chico recently.
Francis in road day starts allowed 8 runs in 36 2/3 innings spanning 5 starts. So the pen may not be such a concern anyway.
Hamels some minor issues in day starts in his early career. Just not sure 2 April home starts carry much weight as well as 1st start after the break. TGhe only other home day start was recently vs Wash which was solid and nats do hit LHP fairly well. He is 10-3 3.22 ERA in 17 starts on regular rest. Where Francis is 12-5 in 22 starts with a 3.62 ERA on regular rest. Long rest he was a 5.74 ERA and 314 BAA..check cbssportsline for the complete breakdown.
Anyway I prefer the Under looking for 9.5 but will take 9 especially at even. I feel 8.5 is the fair total here. Also see value in Col +1.5 runs and Under 1st 5 innings.....
Good Luck be back later!!
Tough matchup @ Fenway. I have this line much closer to -130 though. My concern about making this a value play is that Matthews is OUT hurting the LAA defense. Vlad is banged up relegated to DH which puts a banged up Figgins in RF. My point is the inflated line due to health issues like what we saw when the Pats traveled to Cincy on Monday?? Hoping its the perception of Lackey @ Fenway.
Sure Boston has the better lineup and Lackey has issues @ Fenway. Heres my deal though look at Lackeys numbers 2005 -2007 only. Basically cause that is the guy toeing the rubber tonite. Both SP have a long ago history of being money pitchers in the playoffs. The stats still arent great BUT take out Lackeys last outing which came after a nite game @ Tor and was a 1PM start in Fenway. Plus Lackeys day splits not so sharp this season. His other stats are serviceable like 6 inn 3 run types.
Lackey is 11-5( team 12-5) 2.73ERA away and 15-5 (17-5)2.55ERA at nite. Beckett is 9-5 (10-7) 4.17 ERA and 11-6(11-8) 3.71 ERA at nite . Really you want Beckett in the day on the road cause thats where his numbers are strongest. Also there is a misconception out there that Manny and Papi OWN Lackey. Its again not the past 3 seasons...they hit him well but Manny 4/12 and Papi 5/13 with I think 1 Hr combined isnt all that alarming....Lowell only 3/12 lifetime.
So played at +160 think +150 or better is very nice value. The total is a headache. I do think UNDER @ 9 looks tempting. What scares me is both guys allow enough hits where 1 mistake could be 3 runs. Both guys have proven to be bulls in the postseason and on the season.So leaning towards that UNDER but not sure...GL
Still thinking about that late game in Zona . Did play the Cubbies to win the series though based on Zambrano , Hill and Lilly with a solid pen outside of closer Dempster. Easily the better lineup on paper.
The CFB game. Lets see 3rd string QB who is a redshirt freshman making his 1st start. Oh and the line didnt budge...I have to think that normally that would call for a line adjustment. Its easy to see Fletcher running wild on Rice and the Eagle defense stepping up after last week. So if I had to guess I would say SoMiss wins 38-14. Based mainly on Rice being awful on the road facing an angry defense. Oh and the linesmakers telling you while we havent seen M.Young play we are confident enough to hold the line...simple logic.....GL
Well the value play on LAA was a sucker bet plain and simple. Rarely do I feel fooled when looking at a game. Like I mentioned earlier was the inflated line a bi-product of way to much Boston love OR a sign of just how banged up LAA is and how flat they would be. We now know the answer. Just very disappointed I didnt play the UNDER at 9 runs. Even liking LAA there only shot at winning was a low scoring game.
As for the CFB game so far I am clueless there it seems. Funny I guess. The line most of held 21 cause Reeves played!! Well that logical analysis was thrown out the window quickly. The Eagles look flat from what I have seen . You almost have to entertain a 2nd H over here.
The last order of business is although I like Chicago the line has been pounded to the point where all the value is sucked out of them. I dont like Chi at +115 dont exactly like Arizona but dont like the price here. What I did was play the late UNDER. You look at Zambrano away and his numbers are so solid along with his nite data. Webb has been tough at home and sports a very inexperienced postseason lineup facing a pitcher they really havent ever faced . Who happens to be inconsistent but Cy worthy on many nites. Webb is a former Cy Young winner. Both SP hold rHB to a 200baa......late nite UNDER 7.5 Runs....welcome to the playoffs. GL
After further review I actually think Southern Miss may be done here. No idea what to take 2nd H and would only lean UNDER and Rice +8.5...GL
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
Tonite there is only one game to look at : Marshall @ Memphis in CFB.
At first glance we know both teams have poor defenses. I think what cant be missed is level of competition. Marshall has played WVU , @ Miami and @ Cincy. All 3 sport sound defenses and Cincy and Miami excel on that side of the ball. I know someone is thinking what about the loss at home to New Hamphsire. Well maybe it was a bit of a hangover after the collapse to WVU , maybe a bit of arrogance on there part after playing WVU so tough for 3 quarters , maybe Bernard Morris sitting mearly the entire 1st H?? Tough to decipher but New Hamp is somewhere around top 15 in 1 AA. Now how much different is a mid major then 1 AA these days?? What I am saying is the loss as bad as it looks?? Maybe not IMO. Alot of Marshall's points allowed IMO are due to the fact they have turned it over versus these tough defenses and I include WVU in that. The turnovers lead to short fields. Which in effect makes Marshall's defense look worse then it truly is. Memphis on the other hand hasnt played much of anyone getting shredded for 1000yards by Ark St and UCF ( which I think is an explosive offense for sure). The wildcard for them is the death of a player but also how they bounce back from there THURS collapse. No one knows how it effects them here. What I do know is the kid hadnt played at all this year. Which begs me to ask how much of a part of the team was he?? Horrible question to ask. There are those looking for Memphis pysche or motivation here. I just dont see this as the motivation angle its being used as. As well as the feeling at memphis of the bad stuff just piling on. You just had a historic collapse @ Ark St then 2 days later a teammate is murdered. The what next feeling has to be in there heads.
Then there is Memphis tough schedule with 3 games in 11 days or so. Not to underemphasize there collapse vs Ark St on Thursday , probably take Fri off , pratice and prepare for Marshall on Sat and Sun . Then the shocking , horrific news. With the twist that this murder seems premeditated and not a random act. Cant imagine much getting done on Monday @ Memphis. I think focus here is a monumental task for the Tigers. Marshall on the other hand is off a BYE WEEK with a ton of time to prepare and rest up ( get healthy). Where Memphis injuries dont have much time to heal. Certainly different personnel then last year but Marshall beat up Memphis pretty good. Bernard Morris is playing well and facing a so-so defense at best with injury issues. Now understand Morris missed nearly the entire 1st H vs NH and still threw for 417 yds and 3 scores!!!! WOW! The Thundering Herd should see a spike in rushing stats cause this isnt Miami , Cincy or WVU .
At first glance I thought memphis would get there first win here till I broke it down. I aksed myself does memphis know how to win?? They outplayed Ole Miss and lost and the 31-6 halftime lead @ Ark State that saw a 29-0 second half. I dont think they know how to win. Which would scare me backing them as chalk. Lastly I think a fair line is PKem but because of Marshall schedule and Memphis close losses its been inflated.....
My feeling is play Marshall ML or buy it to +3 if you rather feel safe..however I expect Marshall to win SU...will wait till halftime to see if a 2nd H over is worth it..usually would have to be a lower scoring 1st H GOOD LUCK
Side Note : watching ESPN pregame it looked like thye had a beautiful turnout for Taylor Bradford..very sad story..
At first glance we know both teams have poor defenses. I think what cant be missed is level of competition. Marshall has played WVU , @ Miami and @ Cincy. All 3 sport sound defenses and Cincy and Miami excel on that side of the ball. I know someone is thinking what about the loss at home to New Hamphsire. Well maybe it was a bit of a hangover after the collapse to WVU , maybe a bit of arrogance on there part after playing WVU so tough for 3 quarters , maybe Bernard Morris sitting mearly the entire 1st H?? Tough to decipher but New Hamp is somewhere around top 15 in 1 AA. Now how much different is a mid major then 1 AA these days?? What I am saying is the loss as bad as it looks?? Maybe not IMO. Alot of Marshall's points allowed IMO are due to the fact they have turned it over versus these tough defenses and I include WVU in that. The turnovers lead to short fields. Which in effect makes Marshall's defense look worse then it truly is. Memphis on the other hand hasnt played much of anyone getting shredded for 1000yards by Ark St and UCF ( which I think is an explosive offense for sure). The wildcard for them is the death of a player but also how they bounce back from there THURS collapse. No one knows how it effects them here. What I do know is the kid hadnt played at all this year. Which begs me to ask how much of a part of the team was he?? Horrible question to ask. There are those looking for Memphis pysche or motivation here. I just dont see this as the motivation angle its being used as. As well as the feeling at memphis of the bad stuff just piling on. You just had a historic collapse @ Ark St then 2 days later a teammate is murdered. The what next feeling has to be in there heads.
Then there is Memphis tough schedule with 3 games in 11 days or so. Not to underemphasize there collapse vs Ark St on Thursday , probably take Fri off , pratice and prepare for Marshall on Sat and Sun . Then the shocking , horrific news. With the twist that this murder seems premeditated and not a random act. Cant imagine much getting done on Monday @ Memphis. I think focus here is a monumental task for the Tigers. Marshall on the other hand is off a BYE WEEK with a ton of time to prepare and rest up ( get healthy). Where Memphis injuries dont have much time to heal. Certainly different personnel then last year but Marshall beat up Memphis pretty good. Bernard Morris is playing well and facing a so-so defense at best with injury issues. Now understand Morris missed nearly the entire 1st H vs NH and still threw for 417 yds and 3 scores!!!! WOW! The Thundering Herd should see a spike in rushing stats cause this isnt Miami , Cincy or WVU .
At first glance I thought memphis would get there first win here till I broke it down. I aksed myself does memphis know how to win?? They outplayed Ole Miss and lost and the 31-6 halftime lead @ Ark State that saw a 29-0 second half. I dont think they know how to win. Which would scare me backing them as chalk. Lastly I think a fair line is PKem but because of Marshall schedule and Memphis close losses its been inflated.....
My feeling is play Marshall ML or buy it to +3 if you rather feel safe..however I expect Marshall to win SU...will wait till halftime to see if a 2nd H over is worth it..usually would have to be a lower scoring 1st H GOOD LUCK
Side Note : watching ESPN pregame it looked like thye had a beautiful turnout for Taylor Bradford..very sad story..
Friday, April 20, 2007
April 20th
Tigers -107 {6units}-2.5 RL +240 {1unit}
Over 4.5 -120 Tigers team {3units}
Over 5-120 1st Half {2units}
Over 9.5 -105 {2units}
Upon first glance Durbins number's are gross every way you slice them. The key thing for me here is situation. The 1st two starts of 2007 were away in the day now we are home and at nite. He knows its now or never and despite the gross nuymbers vs CHI career wise I have faith. First the ONLY Sox with any success off him is Konerko and he is in a deep slump. The slump either continue Or Durbin helps him come out of it. Paulis 11of 19 but the rest are just 6 of 35. Working against Danks is being LH and getting no run support so far. Danks is facing a lineup that over time should feast on LHP...Pudge , Maggs , Sheff , Polanco and Monroe all have much better career splits facing LHP. If your talking bullpens I think DET has the clear edge especially if they turn to Ledezma or Grilli for long relief. Durbin 12-14 4.85 ERA at home career versus 5-17 8.28 road ERA....pick your poison here...
Under 4 -110 Tor team {6units}
Simply based on Cabrera's emergence and recent preference for pitching vs Tor who is hitting less with the injuries. Just look at Daniel's career vs Tor they dont like to see him. I am just not solid that O's can break 3 runs here looking for a pitchers duel. Think Balt is over priced here would have expected that Burnett was worth 15 to 20 cents more then Cabrera...think about Balt +1.5 RL
Under 9.5 -110 New York {5units}
Now that Pettitte is in form I am comfortable thinking he will pick up where he left off versus Boston sporting a career 3 ERA. Schilling now also dealing well has been excellent at Fenway vs NY as a Red Sox.
Braves -102 {5units} -1.5 RL +145 {1unit} -2.5 RL +215 {1unit}
Hudson has been excellent to date and in the past he is 6-2 in his starts vs NYM. The Mets are looking scary hot but they always say good hitting beats good pitching. As I expressed prior to his last start Pelfrey is playing catch up. He didnt look very sound in ST and Wash was unable to take advantage of him last start.Lets look at who NYM beat....a rookie in Fla and veteran in Philly making a return from injury. What was impressive was the beating they through Willis but DTrain hasnt really looked sharp so far....
Phillies +125 {2.5units}
Under 9.5 Reds -110 {3units}
GOOD LUCK
Tigers -107 {6units}-2.5 RL +240 {1unit}
Over 4.5 -120 Tigers team {3units}
Over 5-120 1st Half {2units}
Over 9.5 -105 {2units}
Upon first glance Durbins number's are gross every way you slice them. The key thing for me here is situation. The 1st two starts of 2007 were away in the day now we are home and at nite. He knows its now or never and despite the gross nuymbers vs CHI career wise I have faith. First the ONLY Sox with any success off him is Konerko and he is in a deep slump. The slump either continue Or Durbin helps him come out of it. Paulis 11of 19 but the rest are just 6 of 35. Working against Danks is being LH and getting no run support so far. Danks is facing a lineup that over time should feast on LHP...Pudge , Maggs , Sheff , Polanco and Monroe all have much better career splits facing LHP. If your talking bullpens I think DET has the clear edge especially if they turn to Ledezma or Grilli for long relief. Durbin 12-14 4.85 ERA at home career versus 5-17 8.28 road ERA....pick your poison here...
Under 4 -110 Tor team {6units}
Simply based on Cabrera's emergence and recent preference for pitching vs Tor who is hitting less with the injuries. Just look at Daniel's career vs Tor they dont like to see him. I am just not solid that O's can break 3 runs here looking for a pitchers duel. Think Balt is over priced here would have expected that Burnett was worth 15 to 20 cents more then Cabrera...think about Balt +1.5 RL
Under 9.5 -110 New York {5units}
Now that Pettitte is in form I am comfortable thinking he will pick up where he left off versus Boston sporting a career 3 ERA. Schilling now also dealing well has been excellent at Fenway vs NY as a Red Sox.
Braves -102 {5units} -1.5 RL +145 {1unit} -2.5 RL +215 {1unit}
Hudson has been excellent to date and in the past he is 6-2 in his starts vs NYM. The Mets are looking scary hot but they always say good hitting beats good pitching. As I expressed prior to his last start Pelfrey is playing catch up. He didnt look very sound in ST and Wash was unable to take advantage of him last start.Lets look at who NYM beat....a rookie in Fla and veteran in Philly making a return from injury. What was impressive was the beating they through Willis but DTrain hasnt really looked sharp so far....
Phillies +125 {2.5units}
Under 9.5 Reds -110 {3units}
GOOD LUCK
Saturday, April 07, 2007
April 7th :
Early session : As always line shop
Yankees -200 {6units}
Not going to get all that in-depth here. The theme is BALT vs LHP. With the loss of Hernandez and Payton they have lost some weapons. Last season the O's were 5-21 on the ROAD vs LH SP. This year they lost to Johan Santana in the opener , who by the way is tougher on RHB cause of his change. You will see teams try to stack LHB against him. Tonite we saw Sean Henn throw 3 scoreless innings vs the O's allowing just 1 hit!!!
The SP is Igawa making his debut for NY. I think early on he was looking for his comfort zone and as spring went on he found it. In his NYM days Steve Traschel did a very sound job of pitching vs the Yanks . However they have the edges here with the LH SP , deeper pen , & Yanks playing much better then them during the DAY. With Rasner versus Bedard on Sunday this becomes a key game......The UNDER looks very attractive but I almost always wait till gameday for totals plays..
Thoughts on the rest of the Day schedule:
- Cubs @ Milw : Believe it or not neither SP has much success vs the opponent. Sheets looked awesome on Opening Day and that must be kept in mind. However MILW has won only 2 of his last 10 starts vs CHI. Zambrano has dropped 4 of 5 @ MILW....Lee owns Sheets but the rest of the TH should struggle and they are lacking from the LH side...In his opener Zambrano who could have the contract issues / stall hanging over his head couldnt get a LHB out...faced 9 allowed 4 hits (2hr's) and 3 BB's.....Ouch.. Looks like a coin toss here...
-Det @ KC : The Royals finally beat the Tigers at home (0-9 LYR). Maroth has been extremely solid in his recent outings @ Kauffman Stadium. Meche was solid on Opening Day and in his few outings vs DET recently. Discount Maroth' s last start in KC cause he was hurt and it was his last of the season before that 4 runs in 30 + innings there....so looking at the UNDER 9.5 ....KC didnt have any success vs LHP or in the day in 2006 if I recall correctly...
LAD @ SFG : being that Lowe stunk in the opener this game has lil value. Oh wait dont sleep on Russ Ortiz. It may not last long but right now he looks like a ML SP again....if LAD wins tonite then at these levels we could have some value in the SFG. However its customary to rest Bonds in day after Nite games so thats a caution...
Twins @ Sox: before the season started I though Silva might have a huge year ( for him). Now after watching the Spring I am certain this guy is mentally weak. he quit on his team last year and I thought that lead to an awakening. However when labeled as in a fight for a rotation spot he got shelled. The second he was announced as safe as SP he turned in his best performance. Which I called BTW! He was road kill last season. Still I prefer him to Javy who was smoked all ST. Worse is vazquez was lit up by Minny last year and has a piss poor track record vs them.....OVER 10..weather and ump..??
Mets @ Braves : The Mets are smoking hot and ATL has looked flat vs LHP. The get old fav Tom Glavine who seems to have worked out his ATL issues. Smoltz was solid in the opener and vs NYM last season...The NY bats have done alot of damage vs bullpens so far and timely hitting the rest....Carpenter was hurt , Wells and Looper IMO pitched very well vs them ...redman was decent till tiring and the pen got involved.....UNDER 8.5 most likelyWorking on the nite card...Good Luck
Early session : As always line shop
Yankees -200 {6units}
Not going to get all that in-depth here. The theme is BALT vs LHP. With the loss of Hernandez and Payton they have lost some weapons. Last season the O's were 5-21 on the ROAD vs LH SP. This year they lost to Johan Santana in the opener , who by the way is tougher on RHB cause of his change. You will see teams try to stack LHB against him. Tonite we saw Sean Henn throw 3 scoreless innings vs the O's allowing just 1 hit!!!
The SP is Igawa making his debut for NY. I think early on he was looking for his comfort zone and as spring went on he found it. In his NYM days Steve Traschel did a very sound job of pitching vs the Yanks . However they have the edges here with the LH SP , deeper pen , & Yanks playing much better then them during the DAY. With Rasner versus Bedard on Sunday this becomes a key game......The UNDER looks very attractive but I almost always wait till gameday for totals plays..
Thoughts on the rest of the Day schedule:
- Cubs @ Milw : Believe it or not neither SP has much success vs the opponent. Sheets looked awesome on Opening Day and that must be kept in mind. However MILW has won only 2 of his last 10 starts vs CHI. Zambrano has dropped 4 of 5 @ MILW....Lee owns Sheets but the rest of the TH should struggle and they are lacking from the LH side...In his opener Zambrano who could have the contract issues / stall hanging over his head couldnt get a LHB out...faced 9 allowed 4 hits (2hr's) and 3 BB's.....Ouch.. Looks like a coin toss here...
-Det @ KC : The Royals finally beat the Tigers at home (0-9 LYR). Maroth has been extremely solid in his recent outings @ Kauffman Stadium. Meche was solid on Opening Day and in his few outings vs DET recently. Discount Maroth' s last start in KC cause he was hurt and it was his last of the season before that 4 runs in 30 + innings there....so looking at the UNDER 9.5 ....KC didnt have any success vs LHP or in the day in 2006 if I recall correctly...
LAD @ SFG : being that Lowe stunk in the opener this game has lil value. Oh wait dont sleep on Russ Ortiz. It may not last long but right now he looks like a ML SP again....if LAD wins tonite then at these levels we could have some value in the SFG. However its customary to rest Bonds in day after Nite games so thats a caution...
Twins @ Sox: before the season started I though Silva might have a huge year ( for him). Now after watching the Spring I am certain this guy is mentally weak. he quit on his team last year and I thought that lead to an awakening. However when labeled as in a fight for a rotation spot he got shelled. The second he was announced as safe as SP he turned in his best performance. Which I called BTW! He was road kill last season. Still I prefer him to Javy who was smoked all ST. Worse is vazquez was lit up by Minny last year and has a piss poor track record vs them.....OVER 10..weather and ump..??
Mets @ Braves : The Mets are smoking hot and ATL has looked flat vs LHP. The get old fav Tom Glavine who seems to have worked out his ATL issues. Smoltz was solid in the opener and vs NYM last season...The NY bats have done alot of damage vs bullpens so far and timely hitting the rest....Carpenter was hurt , Wells and Looper IMO pitched very well vs them ...redman was decent till tiring and the pen got involved.....UNDER 8.5 most likelyWorking on the nite card...Good Luck
Friday, April 06, 2007
What a headache.....CappingtheGame is down and so was this Blogger shit!
What's the point with writeups now....
My plays were listed in the comment section here is a better listing.....
American League :
Orioles +1.5 RL +105 {2u} +2.10
Under 10-120 NYY {2.5u} PUSH
Tampa +110 {3.5 u} & -1.5 ARL +215 {1/2u} Win +3.35 net
Tigers -167 {3u} Loss-5.01
National League:
Philly -113 {3units} Win +3.00
Nats +105{2u} Loss -2.00
Under 9 +100 Nats {2u} Win +2.00
Pirates +105 {3u} & -1.5 ARL +160 {1u} Loss -4.00
Over 9.5 +105 Pitt {2u} Loss -2.00
adding @ 8PM...
Under 9 +100 Houston {2.5 u} Win +2.50
Houston +119 {1.5 u} -1.50
adding @ 10PM : (down -1.56 units heading into the late nite section)
LAA -110 {2.5u} Win +2.50
Over 9.5 +105 LAA{4u} Loss -4.00
SFG -104 {2.5units} Loss -2.60
Over 8.5 -105SFG {3units} Loss-3.15
Col +145 {1.5u} Win +2.18
Didnt look at the rest of the NL card yet. Good Luck!
What's the point with writeups now....
My plays were listed in the comment section here is a better listing.....
American League :
Orioles +1.5 RL +105 {2u} +2.10
Under 10-120 NYY {2.5u} PUSH
Tampa +110 {3.5 u} & -1.5 ARL +215 {1/2u} Win +3.35 net
Tigers -167 {3u} Loss-5.01
National League:
Philly -113 {3units} Win +3.00
Nats +105{2u} Loss -2.00
Under 9 +100 Nats {2u} Win +2.00
Pirates +105 {3u} & -1.5 ARL +160 {1u} Loss -4.00
Over 9.5 +105 Pitt {2u} Loss -2.00
adding @ 8PM...
Under 9 +100 Houston {2.5 u} Win +2.50
Houston +119 {1.5 u} -1.50
adding @ 10PM : (down -1.56 units heading into the late nite section)
LAA -110 {2.5u} Win +2.50
Over 9.5 +105 LAA{4u} Loss -4.00
SFG -104 {2.5units} Loss -2.60
Over 8.5 -105SFG {3units} Loss-3.15
Col +145 {1.5u} Win +2.18
Results -6.63 units
Didnt look at the rest of the NL card yet. Good Luck!
Tuesday, April 03, 2007
April 4th
SD @ SFG
Play : Giants -107 {5units} Lean UNDER
Looking at the changes to both teams SF seems to have gained some edges here. They have the former SD manager Bruce Bochy running the show as well as there leadoff hitter Dave Roberts. They acquired LHP Barry Zito thru free agency in the winter and SD lost two key bats vs LHP in Piazza and Barfield.
Some things that stand out for Jake Peavy are :
1: His performance @ AT&T Park
2006 18.2Inn 22H 12R 12ER 0Hr 6BB 9K 5.79ERA 1.50WHIP .293BAA in 3 starts.
Career 10st 6W 4L 63.0Inn 67H 30R 29ER 5HRr 22BB 41K 4.14ERA 1.41WHIP .271BAA
SD @ SFG
Play : Giants -107 {5units} Lean UNDER
Looking at the changes to both teams SF seems to have gained some edges here. They have the former SD manager Bruce Bochy running the show as well as there leadoff hitter Dave Roberts. They acquired LHP Barry Zito thru free agency in the winter and SD lost two key bats vs LHP in Piazza and Barfield.
Some things that stand out for Jake Peavy are :
1: His performance @ AT&T Park
2006 18.2Inn 22H 12R 12ER 0Hr 6BB 9K 5.79ERA 1.50WHIP .293BAA in 3 starts.
Career 10st 6W 4L 63.0Inn 67H 30R 29ER 5HRr 22BB 41K 4.14ERA 1.41WHIP .271BAA
2: His day splits and road splits :
In Day starts he had 5.65 ERA 1.44 WHIP and .262 BAA in 12 starts(4-6). On the road 4.55 ERA , 1.35 WHIP , .257BAA. For his career he is 4.61 day ERA compared to 3.10 at nite as well as 4 road ERA compared to 3.07.
The Padres are a team that doesnt impress me. There lineup is a question mark IMO. As I mentioned earlier they lost two top hitters vs LHP in Piazza .359 8hrs and Barfield .331 7hrs. That means Bard and Gonzalez are there top threats vs LHP. Bard still has to show me he can do it for a full season. The rest of the lineup has inconsistencies and struggles. Marcus Giles hit just .229 vs LH but is .285 career mostly due to EXTREME inconsistencies. His brother a LHB hit .217 , Cameron the #3 hitter .252 last season , Greene 271. That leaves the young stud but unproven Kouzmanoff who was just 2/12 in limited ab's and Sledge who is LH and .247 career vs LHP. So while Zito at times has struggles with LHB and his Day splits are slightily worse then his nite splits I dont see Peavy as having the edge.
Factor in Bruce Bochy right out of the gates is trying to get revenge on his former team. I mean come on who lets there successful manager go straight to another divisional rival?? Thats a slap in the face. Peavy will have to face FOUR LHB at the top of the order with pesky du eof ROberts and Vizquel , followed by the rejuvanated Barry Bonds. Aurilia may not be the poster boy for offense but he smoked the ball in the 2nd H last season and it wasnt due to his home park . Molina has good day numbers and Winn is a better option then Sledge in the 8 spot.
The weak point for SFG is the pen. With some converted SP as setup guys as well as Chulk. I like the fact that despite Barry Zito signing for mega bucks he took the time to add 10 pounds to his lower body to increase velocity and worked on a new windup. He is showing he is trying to get better...Bonds is locked and healthy unlike last opening Day. Peavy has lost 3 of 4 @ SFG (and his PODS didnt hit 0,1 and 2 runs)while SFG won 11 of the last 13 meetings last season. You would think Zito's freshness is a plus since Peavy has faced SF so many times in recent years.
SD was just 6-11 on the road vs LHP.
Monday, April 02, 2007
April 2nd
Good start hitting NYM and the Under finishing +8.33 Units.
Early starts :
Yankees -165 {4units}
Under 10 -120 NYY {1unit}
Under 8 -115 Detriot {2 units}
Under 8 -105 Nationals {4units}
Phillies -110 {3units}
Under 8 -105 Milw {3units}
Brewers -110 {3units}
Reasons:-
With NYY it's real simple I am biased Homer fuck! In all seriousness I think Scott Kazmir is still working / feeling his way back from being shut down early last year with shoulder issues and being ordered to not throw over the winter. That puts him behind most SP at this point when he worked something like 16 innings this spring. I think its two-fold with him in that he wont be his sharpest and TB will baby him somewhat and maybe cap him at 6 innings . Though he doesnt usually get past the 6th on the road anyway. The other is Kazmir stastically is medicore on the road in young his career . NY hasn't hit him real well in the few meetings and with the abundance of LHB he could make life tough. With the bats TB just doesnt impress me at the moment they are talented but raw and young. Dukes will start in center and Baldelli at DH. Mix in Upton at 2b with Zobrist , Ikawura at 3B and Navarro you have an abudnace of players who could be thinking about there first Opening Day @ Yankee Stadium no less. Dont forget that TB won just 20 games away last year and finished 3-31 when they went with the youth. Take out the 2005 abberation and wins @ the Stdium dont come often for TB who is taking some steps back early and playing youth.The reason the line is low is cause Pavano is the anti-christ. His public perception is at an all time low thanks to not pitching since 05 and what has happened inbewteen. From what I have seen Pavano has thrown strikes and thrown well in Spring . TB's pen is unproven but has some okay arms where I like my Yanks pen . I think Pavano throws strikes and with a free swinging TB team that is a major plus. They had 1 batter with more then 18 walks on the road last season.....thats beyond absurd...they dont work counts....NY will be honoring Lidle as his wife throws out the 1st pitch. Remember that he and Giambi go way back so that plays some significance IMO..Looking at playing the under dont see alot of offense as 6-4 seems like worst case....NYY hit .286 in the day vs .256 for TB
In Detriot ,looking hard at the Under. To be honest an AL game with an 8 total is concerning but at least Comerica is huge. I dont really see either lineup as being exceptional. The Jays have struggled all spring with the bats and are facing Bonderman. Bonderman who has pitched well vs Tor in the past has looked sharp this Spring. One concerning point is neither excels in Day starts. As well as Bonderman not pitching that well at homelast season. Toronto runs out Halladay and thats really all that needs to be said. The Tigers only have Granderson , Casey and Guillen from the LH side. Its been awhile since Roy has faced DET so not much to go on really.
In Washington , we have two solid young SP in a pitchers park. Patterson appears healthy now and was real sharp last season versus Florida. The Marlins have alot of young bats who need to prove last year was no fluke. If Spring Training is any concern then Fla could be in trouble. They didnt hit well in the Spring and why would that suddenly change. Wash runs alot of LHB out there and the lineup doesnt have much substance. The Keys are Zimmerman who is a beast and Kearns who hasnt hit D-Train well yet in his career despite slugging LHP. Thats really it mostly LH and SWH that dont fare well against LHP. Waiting on umpires...Oh an the Marlins pen stunk last year but has made some changes and has tremendous upside especially with Julio closing. They had 4 guys Messenger , Gregg , Lidstrom and Owens who allowed an incredible 6 earned runs in 53 spring innings. Remember gone are Soriano , Vidro , and Johnson replaced by Snelling , Guzman and Dmitri Young.
In Philly . I think Myers has the better track record vs his opponent. Only Renteria has hit Myers and the rest of ATL has basically struggled vs him. He has looked solid in the spring and had solid day splits last year. Smoltz has lost 4 of 5 vs Philly since returning to the rotation. Smoltz was a differnt SP on the road with a 4.21 ERA , 1.34 WHIP and .281 BAA not to mention his lack of success vs LHB ( see Phillys lineup!!). Rollins has owned him recently and that sets the table. Dont see alot of runs and lean Under 9 .
In Milw , have a strong preference for the under with2 quality SP on the hill . Lowe has exceled in hsi 3 career starts vs Milw including both last season. Sheets has been extremeful tough @ Miller Park and strong in day starts. The wind is something I will look into further before placing though. Furcal is OUT so Pierre becomes the man concern. Both teams lack power.
The 4 PM starts :
Over 9.5 +105 Arizona {2units}
Over 9.5 -115 KC {2units}
KC +155 {2.5 units} ARL -1.5 +280{1/2unit}
Reasons:
Think in Colorado we have two young but fairly solid lineups. Webb had some issues in day starts and McClelland tends to play over behind the dish. On the other side Cook has really struggled vs LHP and versus the Diamondbacks.
While Meche has had success against Boston I cant ignore KC's ERA during the day last season (above 6 ). If he does what he has done in the past you would expect about 4 runs in 6 innings if you get a quality start from Gil. Schilling had a near 5 ERA on the road last year and has been hit hard @ Kauffman past few times. KC did suck in day games last season but hopefully that changes here....As I mentioned Meche has had some success against Boston in his Seattle days both home and away. The Royals have won 5 of 6 from Boston past 2 seasons and as I mentioned Schilling was much different away from Fenway. Schilling had a 4.38 ERA during the day last season with a 4.75 ERA away on the road with 1.30 WHIP. His low K total in spring training should be a plus for this game. Now with Schilling though his road numbers tend to be extremes...extremely good or extermely bad so it really is just an average not a consistent type number..From a fans perspective as a SP i have a ton of respect for Schilling and not crazy about fading him on Opening Day. In recent metings he was above -200 in KC so in some ways this may be cheap but hey so where my yanks and looks like they found a way to lose today. Not sure if papelbons' tender ankle changes his status as closer today..GL
Good start hitting NYM and the Under finishing +8.33 Units.
Early starts :
Yankees -165 {4units}
Under 10 -120 NYY {1unit}
Under 8 -115 Detriot {2 units}
Under 8 -105 Nationals {4units}
Phillies -110 {3units}
Under 8 -105 Milw {3units}
Brewers -110 {3units}
Reasons:-
With NYY it's real simple I am biased Homer fuck! In all seriousness I think Scott Kazmir is still working / feeling his way back from being shut down early last year with shoulder issues and being ordered to not throw over the winter. That puts him behind most SP at this point when he worked something like 16 innings this spring. I think its two-fold with him in that he wont be his sharpest and TB will baby him somewhat and maybe cap him at 6 innings . Though he doesnt usually get past the 6th on the road anyway. The other is Kazmir stastically is medicore on the road in young his career . NY hasn't hit him real well in the few meetings and with the abundance of LHB he could make life tough. With the bats TB just doesnt impress me at the moment they are talented but raw and young. Dukes will start in center and Baldelli at DH. Mix in Upton at 2b with Zobrist , Ikawura at 3B and Navarro you have an abudnace of players who could be thinking about there first Opening Day @ Yankee Stadium no less. Dont forget that TB won just 20 games away last year and finished 3-31 when they went with the youth. Take out the 2005 abberation and wins @ the Stdium dont come often for TB who is taking some steps back early and playing youth.The reason the line is low is cause Pavano is the anti-christ. His public perception is at an all time low thanks to not pitching since 05 and what has happened inbewteen. From what I have seen Pavano has thrown strikes and thrown well in Spring . TB's pen is unproven but has some okay arms where I like my Yanks pen . I think Pavano throws strikes and with a free swinging TB team that is a major plus. They had 1 batter with more then 18 walks on the road last season.....thats beyond absurd...they dont work counts....NY will be honoring Lidle as his wife throws out the 1st pitch. Remember that he and Giambi go way back so that plays some significance IMO..Looking at playing the under dont see alot of offense as 6-4 seems like worst case....NYY hit .286 in the day vs .256 for TB
In Detriot ,looking hard at the Under. To be honest an AL game with an 8 total is concerning but at least Comerica is huge. I dont really see either lineup as being exceptional. The Jays have struggled all spring with the bats and are facing Bonderman. Bonderman who has pitched well vs Tor in the past has looked sharp this Spring. One concerning point is neither excels in Day starts. As well as Bonderman not pitching that well at homelast season. Toronto runs out Halladay and thats really all that needs to be said. The Tigers only have Granderson , Casey and Guillen from the LH side. Its been awhile since Roy has faced DET so not much to go on really.
In Washington , we have two solid young SP in a pitchers park. Patterson appears healthy now and was real sharp last season versus Florida. The Marlins have alot of young bats who need to prove last year was no fluke. If Spring Training is any concern then Fla could be in trouble. They didnt hit well in the Spring and why would that suddenly change. Wash runs alot of LHB out there and the lineup doesnt have much substance. The Keys are Zimmerman who is a beast and Kearns who hasnt hit D-Train well yet in his career despite slugging LHP. Thats really it mostly LH and SWH that dont fare well against LHP. Waiting on umpires...Oh an the Marlins pen stunk last year but has made some changes and has tremendous upside especially with Julio closing. They had 4 guys Messenger , Gregg , Lidstrom and Owens who allowed an incredible 6 earned runs in 53 spring innings. Remember gone are Soriano , Vidro , and Johnson replaced by Snelling , Guzman and Dmitri Young.
In Philly . I think Myers has the better track record vs his opponent. Only Renteria has hit Myers and the rest of ATL has basically struggled vs him. He has looked solid in the spring and had solid day splits last year. Smoltz has lost 4 of 5 vs Philly since returning to the rotation. Smoltz was a differnt SP on the road with a 4.21 ERA , 1.34 WHIP and .281 BAA not to mention his lack of success vs LHB ( see Phillys lineup!!). Rollins has owned him recently and that sets the table. Dont see alot of runs and lean Under 9 .
In Milw , have a strong preference for the under with2 quality SP on the hill . Lowe has exceled in hsi 3 career starts vs Milw including both last season. Sheets has been extremeful tough @ Miller Park and strong in day starts. The wind is something I will look into further before placing though. Furcal is OUT so Pierre becomes the man concern. Both teams lack power.
The 4 PM starts :
Over 9.5 +105 Arizona {2units}
Over 9.5 -115 KC {2units}
KC +155 {2.5 units} ARL -1.5 +280{1/2unit}
Reasons:
Think in Colorado we have two young but fairly solid lineups. Webb had some issues in day starts and McClelland tends to play over behind the dish. On the other side Cook has really struggled vs LHP and versus the Diamondbacks.
While Meche has had success against Boston I cant ignore KC's ERA during the day last season (above 6 ). If he does what he has done in the past you would expect about 4 runs in 6 innings if you get a quality start from Gil. Schilling had a near 5 ERA on the road last year and has been hit hard @ Kauffman past few times. KC did suck in day games last season but hopefully that changes here....As I mentioned Meche has had some success against Boston in his Seattle days both home and away. The Royals have won 5 of 6 from Boston past 2 seasons and as I mentioned Schilling was much different away from Fenway. Schilling had a 4.38 ERA during the day last season with a 4.75 ERA away on the road with 1.30 WHIP. His low K total in spring training should be a plus for this game. Now with Schilling though his road numbers tend to be extremes...extremely good or extermely bad so it really is just an average not a consistent type number..From a fans perspective as a SP i have a ton of respect for Schilling and not crazy about fading him on Opening Day. In recent metings he was above -200 in KC so in some ways this may be cheap but hey so where my yanks and looks like they found a way to lose today. Not sure if papelbons' tender ankle changes his status as closer today..GL
Friday, March 30, 2007
Opening Day 2007 MLB
In looking at this matchup at first glance it could appear that Carpenter and STL are cheaper then expected. You have the World Champs at home with there stud on the mound and they have won 14 of his 19 home starts with a 1.75 ERA. After looking at this from every angle I uncovered some interesting trends. On the surface you have both teams aces dealing after excellent springs which they both proved they are ready for 6 or 7 innings at least on Sunday. The Cards were 55-33 at home including the postseason so why just -140 or why does 140 seem low to me ?
Truth is alot of thing stick out here that you had to look for. In 2006 the Cardinals struggled when opposing a LHP SP. Which I feel has alot to do with emergence of Chris Duncan. Duncan a young LH power hitter will have his struggles vs LHP. They finished the regular season 27-37 vs LHP(4-3 in postseason). They did go 14-16 at home vs LHP in the regular season which left them at 9-18 vs LHP away. Suprisingly they were only 54-63 at nite. Which means they were 40-20 in daylight. The Mets were a solid 49-36 away including postseason. They were a sound 77-48 vs RHP including postseason and 66-50 at nite. All minor factors that seem to indicate NY has the edge.
The Mets have the chance to get some revenge on STL for defeating them in the NLCS and thwarting there World Series aspirations. For St.Louis it will be all fun and games due to the fact its Opening nite and they are raising the World Series banner. It doesnt get better. So while I dont really deal in revenge I think distracted could be a fair word here for this situation.
The Mets were 12-5 in Glavine's away starts. Looking at the stats you wont be impressed by his 4.72 away ERA. You have to dig deeper though and realize its a hand full of starts skewing his numbers. You also most factor in that Glavine pitched pretty solid @ Busch during the 06 regular season. Him being LH certainly is a huge plus when looking at STL lineup and track record. He also was 8-2 last season with a mid 2's ERA at the end of May last season. He has pitched better at nite then during the day last 2 seasons.
While Carpenter is one of the best game the Mets ability to hit RHP cant go unnoticed especially if we recall that he didnt look that sharp in the NCLS which to be fair were road games. The Mets have two RH bats in Wright and LoDuca who hit well above 300 vs RHP. That is rare. Newcomer Moises Alou has good career numbers vs Carpenter and hit 285 vs RHP last season. There worst hitter vs RH is Green who hit only mid 260's in that situation as a Met last season. Beltran , Delgado , Reyes and Valentin all hit .280 + something. At nite Carpenter 's ERA was a full run higher at 3.40 compared to 2.40. The bottomline is the best chance to hit Carpenter is march a bunch of LH sticks out there which NY can( LHB hit about .265BAA past 2 seasons). He is death on RHB(about .205 BAA) the fact that NYM can boast three that succeed vs RH is a plus though. Again not major factors but sutile pluses for NYM.
The bottomline is STL hasnt hit much this Spring while adding Kennedy to replace Belliard which is a negative here IMO and NYM is just beginning to swing well. I would not expect much offense in this game as both SP seem to be in regular season form already. I know Glavine has pitched 6 shutout innings and Carpenter 7 shutout innings telling us they can at least go that deep at peak performance. The pens are questions marks but for possibly 2 innings with a day off secheduled on Monday I am not that concerned. I see a low scoring game here that NY wins by a run. The Cards failed to break 3 runs in 14 of 30 at home vs LHP( or 4 runs in 18 of 30).
Strong leans ( and probable plays) :
New York Mets +135 {3.5units} ARL -1.5 +200 {.75 units}
Under 8 +105{3units}
In looking at this matchup at first glance it could appear that Carpenter and STL are cheaper then expected. You have the World Champs at home with there stud on the mound and they have won 14 of his 19 home starts with a 1.75 ERA. After looking at this from every angle I uncovered some interesting trends. On the surface you have both teams aces dealing after excellent springs which they both proved they are ready for 6 or 7 innings at least on Sunday. The Cards were 55-33 at home including the postseason so why just -140 or why does 140 seem low to me ?
Truth is alot of thing stick out here that you had to look for. In 2006 the Cardinals struggled when opposing a LHP SP. Which I feel has alot to do with emergence of Chris Duncan. Duncan a young LH power hitter will have his struggles vs LHP. They finished the regular season 27-37 vs LHP(4-3 in postseason). They did go 14-16 at home vs LHP in the regular season which left them at 9-18 vs LHP away. Suprisingly they were only 54-63 at nite. Which means they were 40-20 in daylight. The Mets were a solid 49-36 away including postseason. They were a sound 77-48 vs RHP including postseason and 66-50 at nite. All minor factors that seem to indicate NY has the edge.
The Mets have the chance to get some revenge on STL for defeating them in the NLCS and thwarting there World Series aspirations. For St.Louis it will be all fun and games due to the fact its Opening nite and they are raising the World Series banner. It doesnt get better. So while I dont really deal in revenge I think distracted could be a fair word here for this situation.
The Mets were 12-5 in Glavine's away starts. Looking at the stats you wont be impressed by his 4.72 away ERA. You have to dig deeper though and realize its a hand full of starts skewing his numbers. You also most factor in that Glavine pitched pretty solid @ Busch during the 06 regular season. Him being LH certainly is a huge plus when looking at STL lineup and track record. He also was 8-2 last season with a mid 2's ERA at the end of May last season. He has pitched better at nite then during the day last 2 seasons.
While Carpenter is one of the best game the Mets ability to hit RHP cant go unnoticed especially if we recall that he didnt look that sharp in the NCLS which to be fair were road games. The Mets have two RH bats in Wright and LoDuca who hit well above 300 vs RHP. That is rare. Newcomer Moises Alou has good career numbers vs Carpenter and hit 285 vs RHP last season. There worst hitter vs RH is Green who hit only mid 260's in that situation as a Met last season. Beltran , Delgado , Reyes and Valentin all hit .280 + something. At nite Carpenter 's ERA was a full run higher at 3.40 compared to 2.40. The bottomline is the best chance to hit Carpenter is march a bunch of LH sticks out there which NY can( LHB hit about .265BAA past 2 seasons). He is death on RHB(about .205 BAA) the fact that NYM can boast three that succeed vs RH is a plus though. Again not major factors but sutile pluses for NYM.
The bottomline is STL hasnt hit much this Spring while adding Kennedy to replace Belliard which is a negative here IMO and NYM is just beginning to swing well. I would not expect much offense in this game as both SP seem to be in regular season form already. I know Glavine has pitched 6 shutout innings and Carpenter 7 shutout innings telling us they can at least go that deep at peak performance. The pens are questions marks but for possibly 2 innings with a day off secheduled on Monday I am not that concerned. I see a low scoring game here that NY wins by a run. The Cards failed to break 3 runs in 14 of 30 at home vs LHP( or 4 runs in 18 of 30).
Strong leans ( and probable plays) :
New York Mets +135 {3.5units} ARL -1.5 +200 {.75 units}
Under 8 +105{3units}
Thursday, November 30, 2006
Frsutrated last nite didnt even update my card....
Tonite
Over 192 -105 Miami Heat & Detriot Pistons (8x)
Well about 3 games ago Mr.Riley did some lineup shuffling. It started with the home game vs Orlando and he seemed to spark something. He turned Dorrell Wright loose and he has been a monster on the glass and basically let it be known to vets Payton and Walker they have to earn there time with quality play not erratic shooting.
The results have been consistent offense 104 , 102 and 103 . A big key has been getting to the FT line 29 of 37 , 24 of 33 , and 24 of 29. The 1st game vs Orlando jason Williams was out and DNP. They shot 42 pct (36/85) . The next 2 performances with Jason Williams in the lineup were impressive statistically speaking. In Charlotte they shot 55% 38 -69 but get this only 2 of 15 from three. Thats means they were an incredible 36-54 from INSIDE the ARC. Then at home versus Philly they shot 37 of 63 (58%) little better from 3 (5 of 13). So there OFFENSE is suddenly clicking after underperforming for so long.
They get a Piston team who has allowed 46% shooting from the floor on the road nearly 40% from beyond the arc and has put its opponents on the line 24 times a game. Miami averages 27 FTs at home but as I said last 3 they are actualy betting to the line 33 times a game!!The Piston offense is clicking scoring at least 100 pts past 5or6 if you throw out the game @ Philly which had most Sixers out due to injury(still 97 -87 but no late easy scores). Miami also puts it opponents on the line alot(25 avg) as well and DET is above 80% from there. Det also shooting well at 46% from the floor and 40% from 3 last 5(44% from the floor away). Past 2 games Miami allowed 91 and 93 to so-so offense which also didnt benefit from any easy buckets at the end cause the games were decided by DD's. Previosuly they allowed at least 100 3 straight and 5 of 6. The Pistons allowed 111 in Wash , but 95 and 98 at home to less the strong offenses of Charlotte and Atlanta.
Basically these are not the Pistons of years past and I see no reason why both teams dont score 95++ points. As for a side I tend to want to wait but cant understand why Miami is getting +3.5 or +4 pts...before the injuries in Philly last week DEt was about a -1.5 pt fav @ Philly ....so to me alittle fat line with DET win streak and the public not noticing Miami's resurgence recently....looking at Miami ++ points and ML....
Under 200 -110 LAL (4x)
Not going to get crazy with an explantion here. How is Utah getting a 200 total when say a team like MILW who is uptempo gets a 202 total. Seems like they are overlooking the fact Utahs past 3 games have been real low scoring and paying more attention to the 1st meeting. LA is just odd with 4 overs then 6 unders and now 4 overs....I would feel that both teams just played poor defense the 1st meeting and both coaches would be emphasizing defense here. I thought LAL totals have been a bit cheap recently....
Looking at LAL with Utah off there big win...thought this should actually be -5 so lets see where it ends up....
ADD:
Heat +4 -110 (3x) ML +147 (1x)
1st half over 95 -109 Miami (2x)
NCAAB
Over 67 -108 Auburn 1st Half (4x)
Over 136 -110 Ole Miss (5x)
Fordham -11.5 -105 (5x)
Over 131 -113 Manhattan (LEAN) gonna wait till halftime
Over 76 -120 Zaga (3x)
Under 58.5 -108 Mid Tenn 1st H (2x)
Mid Tenn -4 -110 (5x)
Over 68 -108 Arkansas 1st H (3x)
Missouri +3 -105 (3x) ML +118 (1x)
GL
Tonite
Over 192 -105 Miami Heat & Detriot Pistons (8x)
Well about 3 games ago Mr.Riley did some lineup shuffling. It started with the home game vs Orlando and he seemed to spark something. He turned Dorrell Wright loose and he has been a monster on the glass and basically let it be known to vets Payton and Walker they have to earn there time with quality play not erratic shooting.
The results have been consistent offense 104 , 102 and 103 . A big key has been getting to the FT line 29 of 37 , 24 of 33 , and 24 of 29. The 1st game vs Orlando jason Williams was out and DNP. They shot 42 pct (36/85) . The next 2 performances with Jason Williams in the lineup were impressive statistically speaking. In Charlotte they shot 55% 38 -69 but get this only 2 of 15 from three. Thats means they were an incredible 36-54 from INSIDE the ARC. Then at home versus Philly they shot 37 of 63 (58%) little better from 3 (5 of 13). So there OFFENSE is suddenly clicking after underperforming for so long.
They get a Piston team who has allowed 46% shooting from the floor on the road nearly 40% from beyond the arc and has put its opponents on the line 24 times a game. Miami averages 27 FTs at home but as I said last 3 they are actualy betting to the line 33 times a game!!The Piston offense is clicking scoring at least 100 pts past 5or6 if you throw out the game @ Philly which had most Sixers out due to injury(still 97 -87 but no late easy scores). Miami also puts it opponents on the line alot(25 avg) as well and DET is above 80% from there. Det also shooting well at 46% from the floor and 40% from 3 last 5(44% from the floor away). Past 2 games Miami allowed 91 and 93 to so-so offense which also didnt benefit from any easy buckets at the end cause the games were decided by DD's. Previosuly they allowed at least 100 3 straight and 5 of 6. The Pistons allowed 111 in Wash , but 95 and 98 at home to less the strong offenses of Charlotte and Atlanta.
Basically these are not the Pistons of years past and I see no reason why both teams dont score 95++ points. As for a side I tend to want to wait but cant understand why Miami is getting +3.5 or +4 pts...before the injuries in Philly last week DEt was about a -1.5 pt fav @ Philly ....so to me alittle fat line with DET win streak and the public not noticing Miami's resurgence recently....looking at Miami ++ points and ML....
Under 200 -110 LAL (4x)
Not going to get crazy with an explantion here. How is Utah getting a 200 total when say a team like MILW who is uptempo gets a 202 total. Seems like they are overlooking the fact Utahs past 3 games have been real low scoring and paying more attention to the 1st meeting. LA is just odd with 4 overs then 6 unders and now 4 overs....I would feel that both teams just played poor defense the 1st meeting and both coaches would be emphasizing defense here. I thought LAL totals have been a bit cheap recently....
Looking at LAL with Utah off there big win...thought this should actually be -5 so lets see where it ends up....
ADD:
Heat +4 -110 (3x) ML +147 (1x)
1st half over 95 -109 Miami (2x)
NCAAB
Over 67 -108 Auburn 1st Half (4x)
Over 136 -110 Ole Miss (5x)
Fordham -11.5 -105 (5x)
Over 131 -113 Manhattan (LEAN) gonna wait till halftime
Over 76 -120 Zaga (3x)
Under 58.5 -108 Mid Tenn 1st H (2x)
Mid Tenn -4 -110 (5x)
Over 68 -108 Arkansas 1st H (3x)
Missouri +3 -105 (3x) ML +118 (1x)
GL
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Baskets
NYK @ CLE
- Just a tough call here. The total is pretty damn tight at 195. I would suggest a final of 102-92 here...Cavs off a good offensive performance which followed a poor offensive performance. Have this line at about -10 as well. Remember while NY does play them well the glue could becoming undone in nY. Marbury was supposed to be so happy his neighbor was becoming the HC...fast forward a month or so and he is getting benched. Lee is actually an upgrade over Frye IMO. Losing Q kills the offense as he has been there best scorer. Does make me wonder how Crawford only gets 5 shots the guy will just never fit in here and needs to be moved ...If for some reason this dips below 10 I might get interested in Cle.
Bobcats +4.5 -113 (12x) ML +160 (2.5x)
Note: Char is 2 pts away from having all 5 ATS win as SU wins(makes ML more valuable)
-Now that Primo is back this team boasts an impressive frontine IMO. Okefor battled foul trouble last nite so his minutes were down. Felton was benched so his minutes were down. I think last nite was a good sign that Charlotte who folds often in the 4th Q held on and won SU in NJ. The Bobcats have taken 3 of 4 from ATL in both there seasons (so 6-2 SU lifetime). This team has talent in Gerald Wallace and Brevin Knight two gusy who needed some time in the NBA before they began to fulfill there potential. A bunch of # picks in Okefor , May , Morrison and Felton and so on. Atlanta has just looked different w/o Childress. As I said a young and thin team depends so heavily on Joe Johnson and Zaza Pachiula for there offense but where is there post presence. You have to think the team playing after a nice win has the edge. You wonder if ATL lets the loss @ Wash hangover some.....cant count how many 1 posession or OT losses ATL has. ATLis 1-6 last 7 SU , Bobcats are 3-1 in ATL lifetime and I felt this line should havebeen about -2.5 . Joe Johnson did play nearly 46 minutes..in back to backs he shots 40%(just 2 games) while the rest he is above 50%... His numbers were also slight worse about 3 pgg in back to backs last year. Being a shooter he also struggled with 3 days rest..tough to find a rythym with that much rest IMO. Again with the total seems fairly tight might revisit it later but lean UNDER.....
Bobcats are 22-6-2 ATS in their last 30 Wednesday games.
Bobcats are 28-9-2 ATS in their last 39 games playing on 0 days rest.
Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite
Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest( but 0-2 ATS this season)
Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
NJ Nets +3.5 -110 (10x)(could reduce to 8x though) ML +132 (3x)
- Thanks to the NJ could streak you get a team that was probably gonna be around a PK at -3 or so. Boston has been favored 5 times this year going 1-4 ATS and 2-3 SU. I am somewhat concerned with the recent schedule of NY but this is hard to pass up valuewise. especially with Bostons big 2nd H @ Milwaukee on Saturday and them being rested. NJ has lost 6 straight but the past 4 were by 6 or less and they choked in Seattle. Really what is killing them is tehre bench or lack there of. Tonite the face a team with asimiliar problem but NJ needs something out of Williams , Nachbar , Wright and dont be suprised to see Hassan Adams get minutes tonite. I dont worry much about Vince , Kidd or RJ logging heavy minutes it the other guys Collins and Kristic. NJ should be able to score in the post.. NJ is 6-2 SU past 8 versus Boston.
Celtics are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win.
Celtics are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Nets are 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings.
Nets are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Boston.
Under 195.5 -106 Boston (3x)
- Extended rest could hurt shooters like Pierce and Wally IMO.
Under is 5-1 in Nets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 5-1 in Nets last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
Under is 6-2 in Nets last 8 games playing on 0 days rest.
Under is 20-7 in Nets last 27 games as a road underdog.
Under is 21-8 in Nets last 29 games as an underdog.
Under is 5-2 in Nets last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 22-9 in Nets last 31 Wednesday games.
Under is 14-6 in Nets last 20 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Under is 13-3 in Celtics last 16 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 9-3 in Celtics last 12 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 6-2 in Celtics last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 12-4 in Celtics last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 8-3 in Celtics last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 games as a favorite.
Under is 9-4 in Celtics last 13 home games.
Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Boston.
Raptors +10.5 -105 (6x) ML +585 (1/2x)
- Dallas is hot so lines get fat..have this closer to -8.5..Toronto had two 2 point losses vs Dallas including OT @ Dallas last season which they led by 17 to start the 4th Q . I like how Toronto is playing defense now and that alone hsould keep them in games. Toronto is 1 point away from winning 7 consecutive ATS and Dallas hasnt done well as big chalk this year.. Value play...
Under 197 -127 Dallas (7x)
- I thought this line was way off last nite and now its 193. As I said Toronto is now playing defense and have you checkjed what DAL is doing ...Last 6 highest pts allowed 92 the rest less then 87. Both teams allow 42 % from the floor lately. the mavs have also scored 95 or less in 5 of 6. Raps have scored low 90' s past 5 ... think this will real close 95 -89 type..the tighter the game the more meaningful late possessions become and hence no gimme FT's.
Spurs +1.5-108 (5x)
- Just one ofthose things where I expected a Pk and saw +1.5 so jumped...not sure where it ends up or if I stay on it. Dont know what happened to Utah past 2 games...though I faded them vs Orlando...Despite the fact Utah has thrown up 70 somethings lately I migt entertain the over...
Rockets +7.5 -110 (4x) ML +290 (1/2x)
-So TMac is OUT...big deal check his numbers he hasnt played well or done much. This is the year of YAO so far. Sure losing McGrady ' s skills hurt but his level of play has been very subpar. Expect other guys to step up. I was playing Hou +5 with him so I guess I never understood this line. Barbosa should be be back but at leastthen 100% which could do more harm then good but also Raja Bell has a bad case of the FLU. How bad? He needed IV at the hospital yesterday. Suns off there best game will probably have some sort of fall back game. Portland cant defend anyone which is evident by the fact even Indy shot 52% against them.
Under 196 -105 Seattle (6x)
- Tends to be a low scoring series. Orlando has held 9 of 10 below a 100 points and most of there road ganmes end up in the 170's. Sonics have been ionconsistent on offense and have gone under at home vs fellow EAST opponents NJ and Philly. Only concern this is alot lower then most SEA totals...but they did lay an egg vs SA 's defense and ORL is similiar style IMO. tendto like SEA here though....
Leans
Cavs -10 +102
Sea ML -140
Ind +6 -110
Mem +6.5 -110 ( legs after Denver?)
Over 180.5 LAC
Over 204.5 GS
Over 191.5 SA
Under 195.5 NYK
NCAAB( right now I use my instincts for college so be cautious)
Under 134 -110 Iowa (3x)
Mich St +5.5 -120 (1x)
Over 146 -127 Purdue (6x)
Oregon +5.5 -112 (5x) ML +206 (1/2x)
Ohio State +7.5 -110 (3x) ML +260 (1/2x)
Ark St +24 +103(wait) (4x)
ULL +12 -110 (3x)
Over 140 -105 Loyola , MD (3x)
Over 133 Wake & AF (wait though) (3x)
Under 120 -105 Temple (5x)
Over 139.5 -105 Marist (5x)
Marist ML -135 (4x)
NYK @ CLE
- Just a tough call here. The total is pretty damn tight at 195. I would suggest a final of 102-92 here...Cavs off a good offensive performance which followed a poor offensive performance. Have this line at about -10 as well. Remember while NY does play them well the glue could becoming undone in nY. Marbury was supposed to be so happy his neighbor was becoming the HC...fast forward a month or so and he is getting benched. Lee is actually an upgrade over Frye IMO. Losing Q kills the offense as he has been there best scorer. Does make me wonder how Crawford only gets 5 shots the guy will just never fit in here and needs to be moved ...If for some reason this dips below 10 I might get interested in Cle.
Bobcats +4.5 -113 (12x) ML +160 (2.5x)
Note: Char is 2 pts away from having all 5 ATS win as SU wins(makes ML more valuable)
-Now that Primo is back this team boasts an impressive frontine IMO. Okefor battled foul trouble last nite so his minutes were down. Felton was benched so his minutes were down. I think last nite was a good sign that Charlotte who folds often in the 4th Q held on and won SU in NJ. The Bobcats have taken 3 of 4 from ATL in both there seasons (so 6-2 SU lifetime). This team has talent in Gerald Wallace and Brevin Knight two gusy who needed some time in the NBA before they began to fulfill there potential. A bunch of # picks in Okefor , May , Morrison and Felton and so on. Atlanta has just looked different w/o Childress. As I said a young and thin team depends so heavily on Joe Johnson and Zaza Pachiula for there offense but where is there post presence. You have to think the team playing after a nice win has the edge. You wonder if ATL lets the loss @ Wash hangover some.....cant count how many 1 posession or OT losses ATL has. ATLis 1-6 last 7 SU , Bobcats are 3-1 in ATL lifetime and I felt this line should havebeen about -2.5 . Joe Johnson did play nearly 46 minutes..in back to backs he shots 40%(just 2 games) while the rest he is above 50%... His numbers were also slight worse about 3 pgg in back to backs last year. Being a shooter he also struggled with 3 days rest..tough to find a rythym with that much rest IMO. Again with the total seems fairly tight might revisit it later but lean UNDER.....
Bobcats are 22-6-2 ATS in their last 30 Wednesday games.
Bobcats are 28-9-2 ATS in their last 39 games playing on 0 days rest.
Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite
Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest( but 0-2 ATS this season)
Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
NJ Nets +3.5 -110 (10x)(could reduce to 8x though) ML +132 (3x)
- Thanks to the NJ could streak you get a team that was probably gonna be around a PK at -3 or so. Boston has been favored 5 times this year going 1-4 ATS and 2-3 SU. I am somewhat concerned with the recent schedule of NY but this is hard to pass up valuewise. especially with Bostons big 2nd H @ Milwaukee on Saturday and them being rested. NJ has lost 6 straight but the past 4 were by 6 or less and they choked in Seattle. Really what is killing them is tehre bench or lack there of. Tonite the face a team with asimiliar problem but NJ needs something out of Williams , Nachbar , Wright and dont be suprised to see Hassan Adams get minutes tonite. I dont worry much about Vince , Kidd or RJ logging heavy minutes it the other guys Collins and Kristic. NJ should be able to score in the post.. NJ is 6-2 SU past 8 versus Boston.
Celtics are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win.
Celtics are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Nets are 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings.
Nets are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Boston.
Under 195.5 -106 Boston (3x)
- Extended rest could hurt shooters like Pierce and Wally IMO.
Under is 5-1 in Nets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 5-1 in Nets last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
Under is 6-2 in Nets last 8 games playing on 0 days rest.
Under is 20-7 in Nets last 27 games as a road underdog.
Under is 21-8 in Nets last 29 games as an underdog.
Under is 5-2 in Nets last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 22-9 in Nets last 31 Wednesday games.
Under is 14-6 in Nets last 20 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Under is 13-3 in Celtics last 16 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 9-3 in Celtics last 12 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 6-2 in Celtics last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 12-4 in Celtics last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 8-3 in Celtics last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 games as a favorite.
Under is 9-4 in Celtics last 13 home games.
Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Boston.
Raptors +10.5 -105 (6x) ML +585 (1/2x)
- Dallas is hot so lines get fat..have this closer to -8.5..Toronto had two 2 point losses vs Dallas including OT @ Dallas last season which they led by 17 to start the 4th Q . I like how Toronto is playing defense now and that alone hsould keep them in games. Toronto is 1 point away from winning 7 consecutive ATS and Dallas hasnt done well as big chalk this year.. Value play...
Under 197 -127 Dallas (7x)
- I thought this line was way off last nite and now its 193. As I said Toronto is now playing defense and have you checkjed what DAL is doing ...Last 6 highest pts allowed 92 the rest less then 87. Both teams allow 42 % from the floor lately. the mavs have also scored 95 or less in 5 of 6. Raps have scored low 90' s past 5 ... think this will real close 95 -89 type..the tighter the game the more meaningful late possessions become and hence no gimme FT's.
Spurs +1.5-108 (5x)
- Just one ofthose things where I expected a Pk and saw +1.5 so jumped...not sure where it ends up or if I stay on it. Dont know what happened to Utah past 2 games...though I faded them vs Orlando...Despite the fact Utah has thrown up 70 somethings lately I migt entertain the over...
Rockets +7.5 -110 (4x) ML +290 (1/2x)
-So TMac is OUT...big deal check his numbers he hasnt played well or done much. This is the year of YAO so far. Sure losing McGrady ' s skills hurt but his level of play has been very subpar. Expect other guys to step up. I was playing Hou +5 with him so I guess I never understood this line. Barbosa should be be back but at leastthen 100% which could do more harm then good but also Raja Bell has a bad case of the FLU. How bad? He needed IV at the hospital yesterday. Suns off there best game will probably have some sort of fall back game. Portland cant defend anyone which is evident by the fact even Indy shot 52% against them.
Under 196 -105 Seattle (6x)
- Tends to be a low scoring series. Orlando has held 9 of 10 below a 100 points and most of there road ganmes end up in the 170's. Sonics have been ionconsistent on offense and have gone under at home vs fellow EAST opponents NJ and Philly. Only concern this is alot lower then most SEA totals...but they did lay an egg vs SA 's defense and ORL is similiar style IMO. tendto like SEA here though....
Leans
Cavs -10 +102
Sea ML -140
Ind +6 -110
Mem +6.5 -110 ( legs after Denver?)
Over 180.5 LAC
Over 204.5 GS
Over 191.5 SA
Under 195.5 NYK
NCAAB( right now I use my instincts for college so be cautious)
Under 134 -110 Iowa (3x)
Mich St +5.5 -120 (1x)
Over 146 -127 Purdue (6x)
Oregon +5.5 -112 (5x) ML +206 (1/2x)
Ohio State +7.5 -110 (3x) ML +260 (1/2x)
Ark St +24 +103(wait) (4x)
ULL +12 -110 (3x)
Over 140 -105 Loyola , MD (3x)
Over 133 Wake & AF (wait though) (3x)
Under 120 -105 Temple (5x)
Over 139.5 -105 Marist (5x)
Marist ML -135 (4x)
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
NFL Week 13
Thursday Special
Bengals see -2.5 -125 (5x)or ML -162 (3x)
These teams squared off 2 weeks ago when Cincy was going bad and Balt won 26-20 as 3 pt favs. The Bengals then went to Cleveland and NO showing the world they had not quit. They also showed they can play defense...1st shutout in like 17 years!!! Basically in the 1st meeting before the offense of Cincy even had a chance it was 14-0. The Bengal fumbled the opening kickoff and started at Cincys 34. They marched into the end zone for a 7-0 lead. They kickoff and I believe on the 2nd play Palmer is picked off for a TD...so its tough to play from behind against such a sound defense. What I see is Cincy has that explosive offense working again and all 3 WRs seem healthy again. I still see the same deal from Baltimore though play great defense and get points off turnovers whether directly or indirectly through short fields. While Jamal Lewis has looked better his stats are still far from impressive and he doesnt appear able to grind out yards. The way I see it outside of the win @ NO where is Balt's impressive road win? They won last minute @ Tenny and @ Cleveland. They defetaed TB who know is awful and lost @ Denver cause they could not move the ball. From what I have seen I still dont think balt can consistenly move the ball on offense through the air. What I would call the weakness of the Raven defense is the pass and well who is better then Palmer right now?? Not sure how I wil play it yet but going Cincy here......
Browns +6 -115 (10x) ML +205 (1x)
Okay so Cleveland looked like shit at home this week. I will chalk that up from the previous week watching them CHOKE versus Pittsburgh at home allowing 3 4th Q TDs to LOSE. They were hungover that was there Super Bowl after the beating Pitt put down on them in 2005. Now they get shutout at home and it teams tend to bounce back after being shutout. KC has that big Turkey Day win that impressed everyone. Two things though. The long layoff takes away the momentum they could have built off that. The second is I feel if Denver could have done just a little more offensively they would have beat KC. Anyway CLE allows only 3.5 YPC at home andlets face KC offense has some issues Green or not...last 3 19 , 17 and 10 pts plus 3 of 5 away 10 points or less. The way Huard played I dont see Green as much of an upgrade. KC was only favored @ Zona and need a comeback to win by 3 ....simply put an overreaction to week 12!
The Cheifs avg just 276 yards of offense on the road!!
Jaguars ML +133 (10x)
No Ronnie Brown just hurts the Phins offense to much. Look at the Jags defense they didnt play poorly versus Buffalo and there defense will shutdown the Miami offense. Look how bad the Lions looked without Kevin Jones , I cant expect Sammy Morris to get it done versus Jax off a SU loss.....defensive battle probably will go under as well...Teams are built on great defenses but now Jax has the edge on offense with Drew & Taylor @ RB plus Matt Jones starting to make plays......tough to get a handle on Miami's true value now that have won 4 straight but I look at it like this Buffalo was favored in DET months ago so Buffalo is fairly close valuewise to Miami and we should probably see jax -3 here IMo.....
Giants +3.5 +100(wait) (10x) +183 ML
Lets not get over excited about destroying TB. Like the other Turkey day winners the layoff kills some of there momentum IMO. I know NY is falling apart but Strahan could return and lets not forget they did lead 21-0 with 10 to play. Alot of what Dallas has done with romo is defense related. They had a couple short fields for TD drives @ Carolina , they still found away to lose @ Washington , and they won easily @ Zona...nice but still not impressive. Then they get Indy at home and they get outplayed in the 1st Half but iimplement there gameplan after a defensive TD. Then came the TB destruction.
Simply put throw stats out the window here this line is so exaggerated IMO. I could see a PKem game but not this chalk. NY had a players only meeting so lets see what comes of it but we can get 4 points at home and I will take my chances with everyone drooling over Dallas. Thinking under........
Still looking at some have played Indy @ -6.5 -120 and TB @ +9 -121...
Thursday Special
Bengals see -2.5 -125 (5x)or ML -162 (3x)
These teams squared off 2 weeks ago when Cincy was going bad and Balt won 26-20 as 3 pt favs. The Bengals then went to Cleveland and NO showing the world they had not quit. They also showed they can play defense...1st shutout in like 17 years!!! Basically in the 1st meeting before the offense of Cincy even had a chance it was 14-0. The Bengal fumbled the opening kickoff and started at Cincys 34. They marched into the end zone for a 7-0 lead. They kickoff and I believe on the 2nd play Palmer is picked off for a TD...so its tough to play from behind against such a sound defense. What I see is Cincy has that explosive offense working again and all 3 WRs seem healthy again. I still see the same deal from Baltimore though play great defense and get points off turnovers whether directly or indirectly through short fields. While Jamal Lewis has looked better his stats are still far from impressive and he doesnt appear able to grind out yards. The way I see it outside of the win @ NO where is Balt's impressive road win? They won last minute @ Tenny and @ Cleveland. They defetaed TB who know is awful and lost @ Denver cause they could not move the ball. From what I have seen I still dont think balt can consistenly move the ball on offense through the air. What I would call the weakness of the Raven defense is the pass and well who is better then Palmer right now?? Not sure how I wil play it yet but going Cincy here......
Browns +6 -115 (10x) ML +205 (1x)
Okay so Cleveland looked like shit at home this week. I will chalk that up from the previous week watching them CHOKE versus Pittsburgh at home allowing 3 4th Q TDs to LOSE. They were hungover that was there Super Bowl after the beating Pitt put down on them in 2005. Now they get shutout at home and it teams tend to bounce back after being shutout. KC has that big Turkey Day win that impressed everyone. Two things though. The long layoff takes away the momentum they could have built off that. The second is I feel if Denver could have done just a little more offensively they would have beat KC. Anyway CLE allows only 3.5 YPC at home andlets face KC offense has some issues Green or not...last 3 19 , 17 and 10 pts plus 3 of 5 away 10 points or less. The way Huard played I dont see Green as much of an upgrade. KC was only favored @ Zona and need a comeback to win by 3 ....simply put an overreaction to week 12!
The Cheifs avg just 276 yards of offense on the road!!
Jaguars ML +133 (10x)
No Ronnie Brown just hurts the Phins offense to much. Look at the Jags defense they didnt play poorly versus Buffalo and there defense will shutdown the Miami offense. Look how bad the Lions looked without Kevin Jones , I cant expect Sammy Morris to get it done versus Jax off a SU loss.....defensive battle probably will go under as well...Teams are built on great defenses but now Jax has the edge on offense with Drew & Taylor @ RB plus Matt Jones starting to make plays......tough to get a handle on Miami's true value now that have won 4 straight but I look at it like this Buffalo was favored in DET months ago so Buffalo is fairly close valuewise to Miami and we should probably see jax -3 here IMo.....
Giants +3.5 +100(wait) (10x) +183 ML
Lets not get over excited about destroying TB. Like the other Turkey day winners the layoff kills some of there momentum IMO. I know NY is falling apart but Strahan could return and lets not forget they did lead 21-0 with 10 to play. Alot of what Dallas has done with romo is defense related. They had a couple short fields for TD drives @ Carolina , they still found away to lose @ Washington , and they won easily @ Zona...nice but still not impressive. Then they get Indy at home and they get outplayed in the 1st Half but iimplement there gameplan after a defensive TD. Then came the TB destruction.
Simply put throw stats out the window here this line is so exaggerated IMO. I could see a PKem game but not this chalk. NY had a players only meeting so lets see what comes of it but we can get 4 points at home and I will take my chances with everyone drooling over Dallas. Thinking under........
Still looking at some have played Indy @ -6.5 -120 and TB @ +9 -121...
Tuesday Thoughts-
NBA (short on time this what I am looking at early or played)
*Under 200.5 -110 Washington
*Raptors +4.5 -105 & NL +167
*Under 191 -105 Tor
Over 199 -110 Chi
*Twolves +8.5 +102
Den -9 -105 & Under 203.5 -102
*Over 195 -105 LAC & LAC +5
*Over 187 -115 Portland
LAL ML -320
The asterisk mean I will definetly play...
Over 141 -105 Rhode Island (5x)
Illinois -200 ML (5x) -4 -110 (4x)
Under 133 -110 Duke (3x)
Over 70 -108 UCLA 1st H (3x)
Over 77.5 -108 Zona 1st H(3x)
Nwestern +107 (3x)
FSU +10.5 -11 (1x)
I dont expect Ibekewe to be heatly enough here if heplays and they simply just can afford to lose hime.
Totals
Under 200.5 -110 (7x) Atlanta
-Reasoning behind this is somewhat logical somewhat implied. First after there last setback Wiz Guard DeShawn Stevenson said the team needed to make a better effort on defense. So thats a starting point for me. Second point is since Childress went down the Hawks have not scored 100 pts and have gone under in 3 of 4 games. Atl had topped 100 in 4 straight prior and 5 of 6. So his loss has hurt the offense IMO as the Hawks are young with questionable depth. The third point is how is ATL a 200 total when teams like Det & Cle came into Wash at 197? I mean think of it like this when ATL traveled to those destinations the totals were in the high 180's so why would a lesser offensive club(ATL) get a higher total. The simple answer is look at what Wash has done at home offensively. My response is its more about what they have done at home offensively in correleation to there totals. For some reason Wash was simply IMO getting low totals for a team was almost automatic to crack a 100pts at home...this is the saturation point IMO...where the total gets a little ahead of logic. They have been under 200 twice (Cle & Det) , right on 200 twice (NJN & Bos) and 202 and 208 to Indiana and Milw...
If you look at history bewteen the two Wiz have won all 5 and scored bewteen 94 and 104(94 , 98 ,102,103,104) while holding Atl to 85 , 72 , 99 , 101 and 84...with injuries I would once again expect to see ATL more in that 85 range rather then the 100 range. Last year ATL could not score in the paint and this year they tend to me real incosnistent from three...so that leaves the FT line and again real incosnsitent. Was is desperate for a win but get ATL and Char at home this week to correct the sinking ship. If Wiz werent cold I would laythe points but just gonna wait till half...have this about -8 ...
Under 191 -110 Toronto (4x)
-You have NO missing 2 key offensive players in Peja and West. The past 3 games they have scored 83 , 79 and 73 while continuing to play solid defense. Tor who started the season off with a run and gun approach has taken TJ Ford's mentality and buckled down defensively lately IMO(scoring low 90's as well). Allowing 83 ,87 and 97 ppg past 3. There shots per game are also down from the 85 to 90 range to 85 , 79 , 70 , 74 last 4. Past 3 games teams are 105 /252 thats 41.67 % they have also stopped putting teams on the line 20 , 21 and 12 attempts last 3.
Over 195 -105 Scaramento (3x)
- Artest returns which concerns me some as is he is a defensive whiz and Kaman & Cassell are out I believe for LAC. Kings have scored 105 or more in 5 of 7 (101 & 99 the other 2 ) and Kings have allowed at least a 100 in all road games. Kings ended a streak of allowing 100+ for 6 straight by holding Blazers to 85. Which I attribute to being down so much and taking bad shots with below average jump shooters. LAC puts opponents on the line 33 times a game and Sca is about 82% FT shooters. Outside of there last road game Clippers have scored at least 90 ppg on the road. I actually expect a close game here...
Over 187 Pacers waiting on game was momentarily off the board
-Alot bit of a strange play here. If you look at Portland lately they are playing a more up and down game. Which has resulted in alot higher scores . They have seen opponents shot nearly 51 % against them at home which could spell trouble if Indiana gets alot of wide open 3 's. Indiana on the other hand puts teams on the line nearly 30 times a game which Portland is sound from the line. Pacers allow 46% and nearly 40% from three..In 7 of 9 Blazers have allowed 100 pts with one game falling at 97. Last 5 games Indiana on the road has been awful from the floor but this should be the opponent to end that. Blazers have scored at least 96 past 4 home games and only fell below vs sound defensive teams like NO and Minny(92 &88)..
NEW: Over 198 -102 NYK (4x) , Under 204 -110 Denver (3x)
Sides
Raptors +4.5 -105 (8x) ML +170 (2x)
-As I mentioned Hornets are playing w/o 2 key players and have slumped past 3 games. Raptors are making an effort on defense and have played well ATS despite not winning on the road. Tor ATS 27-13 -3 last 43 away.
Trends
Raptors are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in New Orleans.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in New Orleans.
Raptors are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Wolves +9 -110 (10x) ML +360 (1/2x)
-First Minny is playing 4th in 5 nites and I have said that I feel books appear to be inflating these situational spreads. Wolves have already covered @ LAL in this spot earlier this season. Raod team is 8-2 SU in this series and Wolves have covered 4 straight and won 3 of 4 SU . Houston has struggled at home as favorite and I see this as a game that should be closer to -5 or -6. Minny didnt extend there players last nite so fatigue shouldnt be a factor. Think about like this Rockets were -10 versus the Knicks and we know minny is a stepup from them...Houston is rested but has been allowing there opponents to comeback in the 4th quarters . Basically they have NOT been putting together complete games. Rockets 9-23 ATS last 32 as home favs. Dog is 6-0 straight up last 6!!!
Bobcats +7.5 -110 (3x) ML +290(1/2x)
-Fading a slumping NJ teamoff a West Coast trip. Charlotte has alot of big bodies and with Cliff Robinson out I think they can make it interesting....
Lakers ML -310 , Nuggetts -445 and Wiz -270 (3xparlay)
just think Milwaukee is a mess with losing Villaneuva...
Bulls -6.5 -110 (3x)
Just not sure about NY without Q. Have a feeling Chi is happy to be home again. NY never really was in the game @ MSG so why here?
Leans -
Washington -6.5
Bulls -7
Denver -9
LAC +5
(could still play any of the last three)
Total leans
Under 187.5 NJN
Over 199 +102 NYK (might still play)
Under 203.5 Denver (might still play)
Team Total Best Bet
Under 97.5 -112 Memphis (3x)
Under 97.5 -113 Toronto (2x) 1st Half
NBA (short on time this what I am looking at early or played)
*Under 200.5 -110 Washington
*Raptors +4.5 -105 & NL +167
*Under 191 -105 Tor
Over 199 -110 Chi
*Twolves +8.5 +102
Den -9 -105 & Under 203.5 -102
*Over 195 -105 LAC & LAC +5
*Over 187 -115 Portland
LAL ML -320
The asterisk mean I will definetly play...
Over 141 -105 Rhode Island (5x)
Illinois -200 ML (5x) -4 -110 (4x)
Under 133 -110 Duke (3x)
Over 70 -108 UCLA 1st H (3x)
Over 77.5 -108 Zona 1st H(3x)
Nwestern +107 (3x)
FSU +10.5 -11 (1x)
I dont expect Ibekewe to be heatly enough here if heplays and they simply just can afford to lose hime.
Totals
Under 200.5 -110 (7x) Atlanta
-Reasoning behind this is somewhat logical somewhat implied. First after there last setback Wiz Guard DeShawn Stevenson said the team needed to make a better effort on defense. So thats a starting point for me. Second point is since Childress went down the Hawks have not scored 100 pts and have gone under in 3 of 4 games. Atl had topped 100 in 4 straight prior and 5 of 6. So his loss has hurt the offense IMO as the Hawks are young with questionable depth. The third point is how is ATL a 200 total when teams like Det & Cle came into Wash at 197? I mean think of it like this when ATL traveled to those destinations the totals were in the high 180's so why would a lesser offensive club(ATL) get a higher total. The simple answer is look at what Wash has done at home offensively. My response is its more about what they have done at home offensively in correleation to there totals. For some reason Wash was simply IMO getting low totals for a team was almost automatic to crack a 100pts at home...this is the saturation point IMO...where the total gets a little ahead of logic. They have been under 200 twice (Cle & Det) , right on 200 twice (NJN & Bos) and 202 and 208 to Indiana and Milw...
If you look at history bewteen the two Wiz have won all 5 and scored bewteen 94 and 104(94 , 98 ,102,103,104) while holding Atl to 85 , 72 , 99 , 101 and 84...with injuries I would once again expect to see ATL more in that 85 range rather then the 100 range. Last year ATL could not score in the paint and this year they tend to me real incosnistent from three...so that leaves the FT line and again real incosnsitent. Was is desperate for a win but get ATL and Char at home this week to correct the sinking ship. If Wiz werent cold I would laythe points but just gonna wait till half...have this about -8 ...
Under 191 -110 Toronto (4x)
-You have NO missing 2 key offensive players in Peja and West. The past 3 games they have scored 83 , 79 and 73 while continuing to play solid defense. Tor who started the season off with a run and gun approach has taken TJ Ford's mentality and buckled down defensively lately IMO(scoring low 90's as well). Allowing 83 ,87 and 97 ppg past 3. There shots per game are also down from the 85 to 90 range to 85 , 79 , 70 , 74 last 4. Past 3 games teams are 105 /252 thats 41.67 % they have also stopped putting teams on the line 20 , 21 and 12 attempts last 3.
Over 195 -105 Scaramento (3x)
- Artest returns which concerns me some as is he is a defensive whiz and Kaman & Cassell are out I believe for LAC. Kings have scored 105 or more in 5 of 7 (101 & 99 the other 2 ) and Kings have allowed at least a 100 in all road games. Kings ended a streak of allowing 100+ for 6 straight by holding Blazers to 85. Which I attribute to being down so much and taking bad shots with below average jump shooters. LAC puts opponents on the line 33 times a game and Sca is about 82% FT shooters. Outside of there last road game Clippers have scored at least 90 ppg on the road. I actually expect a close game here...
Over 187 Pacers waiting on game was momentarily off the board
-Alot bit of a strange play here. If you look at Portland lately they are playing a more up and down game. Which has resulted in alot higher scores . They have seen opponents shot nearly 51 % against them at home which could spell trouble if Indiana gets alot of wide open 3 's. Indiana on the other hand puts teams on the line nearly 30 times a game which Portland is sound from the line. Pacers allow 46% and nearly 40% from three..In 7 of 9 Blazers have allowed 100 pts with one game falling at 97. Last 5 games Indiana on the road has been awful from the floor but this should be the opponent to end that. Blazers have scored at least 96 past 4 home games and only fell below vs sound defensive teams like NO and Minny(92 &88)..
NEW: Over 198 -102 NYK (4x) , Under 204 -110 Denver (3x)
Sides
Raptors +4.5 -105 (8x) ML +170 (2x)
-As I mentioned Hornets are playing w/o 2 key players and have slumped past 3 games. Raptors are making an effort on defense and have played well ATS despite not winning on the road. Tor ATS 27-13 -3 last 43 away.
Trends
Raptors are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in New Orleans.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in New Orleans.
Raptors are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Wolves +9 -110 (10x) ML +360 (1/2x)
-First Minny is playing 4th in 5 nites and I have said that I feel books appear to be inflating these situational spreads. Wolves have already covered @ LAL in this spot earlier this season. Raod team is 8-2 SU in this series and Wolves have covered 4 straight and won 3 of 4 SU . Houston has struggled at home as favorite and I see this as a game that should be closer to -5 or -6. Minny didnt extend there players last nite so fatigue shouldnt be a factor. Think about like this Rockets were -10 versus the Knicks and we know minny is a stepup from them...Houston is rested but has been allowing there opponents to comeback in the 4th quarters . Basically they have NOT been putting together complete games. Rockets 9-23 ATS last 32 as home favs. Dog is 6-0 straight up last 6!!!
Bobcats +7.5 -110 (3x) ML +290(1/2x)
-Fading a slumping NJ teamoff a West Coast trip. Charlotte has alot of big bodies and with Cliff Robinson out I think they can make it interesting....
Lakers ML -310 , Nuggetts -445 and Wiz -270 (3xparlay)
just think Milwaukee is a mess with losing Villaneuva...
Bulls -6.5 -110 (3x)
Just not sure about NY without Q. Have a feeling Chi is happy to be home again. NY never really was in the game @ MSG so why here?
Leans -
Washington -6.5
Bulls -7
Denver -9
LAC +5
(could still play any of the last three)
Total leans
Under 187.5 NJN
Over 199 +102 NYK (might still play)
Under 203.5 Denver (might still play)
Team Total Best Bet
Under 97.5 -112 Memphis (3x)
Under 97.5 -113 Toronto (2x) 1st Half
Monday, November 27, 2006
This week in FOOTBALL (NFL & NCAAF)
Hawaii see -7.5 -105 (looking to get -7 or better)
Under 73 -105 (anything better then 72) (8x)
Really Hawaii has played only 2 quality teams at home Nevada and Purdue. In those games they scored 41 and 42 and failed to cover big DD spreads . Oregon State walks in with a better defense then both of those programs and probably will make an effort to establish the run with Bernard to keep it away from Hawaii's offense. One problem is Hawaii is very tough against the run see Purdue and Nevada's numbers running the ball. Oregon State off a tough home win vs rival Oregon has not impressed me on the road...smoked @ Boise State 42 -14 , lost @ UCLA while winning @ Stanford , @ Zona , and @Wash. The true story though is the offense really struggles away. So much they only won @ Zona cause the starting QB was out (17-10 ) , they won @ Wash when Stanback got hurt as they trailed 14-10 at the half. Purdue and Nevada can throw teh ball better then Matt Moore and company so I wouldnt expect more then 24 pts. With Hawaii I would expect 38 -42 points at most. If they get a chance late I think Hawaii might run the ball with a lead rather then throw. Oregon State was dogged at Boise and Wash by 8 points so this line is actually real cheap. Hawaii has shown they are every good as Boise IMO...so I am looking for 38-24 game...
Houston playing either - 4-120 (10x) or ML
Kolb said after the loss at SoMiss that Houston would run the table and see SoMiss in the Championship Game...well here they are. Kolb is a senior and you know this means alot to him. Houston is trying to avenge a loss @ SoMiss and lets face it they are the better team. They get a home game here being played @ Reliant Stadium. I would play this game up to -6 as I expect a TD win here by the Cougars. Kolb was able to throw for 330 yards in the 1st meeting and SoMiss benefited from good field position. They also have 2 weeks to prepare. This is a team that beat Ok State and lost by 1 @ Miami. The Golden Eagles are young at QB and RB and that inexperience wil hurt them along with there over reliance on there defense. Last 2 years Kolb has thrown for 300+ against SoMiss and 2 years ago as 17 pt dogs lost in ot @ SoMiss. His only poor game was a Freshman so thi sis his 5th start versus them...and lately SoMiss has shown a few holes in there pass defense....
West Virgina-8 -110 (was hoping for -7 but exploded today to -10) (10x)
Just look at it like this we have a double edges sword. WVU losing at home presented value in the line cause this surely would have been double digits and should be. It also makes you wonder about there motivation since they realy cant win the Big East now but they dont want to lose 2 straight at home IMO. The bottomline is RU is still young and struggles offensively on the road. WVU is tough to run about 3 YPC and that presents a problem for Rutgers. While RU is tough against the run this is a different type attack. RU had trouble winning @ USF and @ UNC and lost @ Cincy how in teh world can they win @ WVU off a home loss??
Pat White did hurt his ankle but I expect him to be okay. For all the talk about the win vs Lville remember they made huge comeback by pressuring Brohm and won by just 3 as 6 pt HOME DOGS. They were dogs at Pitt by 6 while Lville ws -10. True Pitt was playing well when RU came to town and RU started the spiral . I know its different teams but WVU won rather easily @ Rutgers last year. Definetly getting a sleeping giant as WVU scored only 19 pts and lost at home...hoping for -7 but will play under -10......
ACC Championship
GaTech ML -133 (10x)
People seem to be handing WF to much credit after there nice win @ Maryland after the beating that was delivered to them at home by VaTech. As well as dissing GT for Ball's performance and late loss over Georgia. WhatI see here is that GT has the experience factor working. Ball and Calvin Johnson have played in numerous big games while Riley SKinner and WF in some ways are happy to be here. Dont think even they felt they would be playing for the Championship and the writers had them picked to finish last and that was waith Mauck and Andrews in the mix. I think GT takes away the running game for WF and The Deacon Defense can be thrown on. Hollenbach killed the Terps with 3 Ints. WF is 2nd to last in the ACC in pass defense enter 6'5 Calvin Johnson. Feel free to correct me but I dont see WF having any corners even at 6' let alone near 6'5. Choice has been playing well of late even w/o much of a passing game. GT has defeated VaTech and Miami while out playing but losing to ND in there opener(2 losses by FG's). If you see this line as HIGH I owuld disagree. Ask yourself if GT would have been favored in Maryland last week and I would say by at least -4. The Terps are just a very medicore ACC team. Play GT up to -4 IMO.....
Felt this line should have been closer to 10 pts. Everything is clicking for USC now but they have still struggled on the road in conference play outside of Stanford. UCLA seems to have regained some momentum with wins over Oregon State and @ ASU. Lets see if the Trojan offense can score on a solid defense ...expecting a 27-17 game....looking at under 48..
Looking at or Played but havent commented:
Ohio U +3.5 -115 (6x) ML +139 (2x) and Under (lean wait till half)
(Big favs) Louisville -27 -105 and Cal -28 -105 as well as 1st Half.. -16.5 -105 on both
Hawaii see -7.5 -105 (looking to get -7 or better)
Under 73 -105 (anything better then 72) (8x)
Really Hawaii has played only 2 quality teams at home Nevada and Purdue. In those games they scored 41 and 42 and failed to cover big DD spreads . Oregon State walks in with a better defense then both of those programs and probably will make an effort to establish the run with Bernard to keep it away from Hawaii's offense. One problem is Hawaii is very tough against the run see Purdue and Nevada's numbers running the ball. Oregon State off a tough home win vs rival Oregon has not impressed me on the road...smoked @ Boise State 42 -14 , lost @ UCLA while winning @ Stanford , @ Zona , and @Wash. The true story though is the offense really struggles away. So much they only won @ Zona cause the starting QB was out (17-10 ) , they won @ Wash when Stanback got hurt as they trailed 14-10 at the half. Purdue and Nevada can throw teh ball better then Matt Moore and company so I wouldnt expect more then 24 pts. With Hawaii I would expect 38 -42 points at most. If they get a chance late I think Hawaii might run the ball with a lead rather then throw. Oregon State was dogged at Boise and Wash by 8 points so this line is actually real cheap. Hawaii has shown they are every good as Boise IMO...so I am looking for 38-24 game...
Houston playing either - 4-120 (10x) or ML
Kolb said after the loss at SoMiss that Houston would run the table and see SoMiss in the Championship Game...well here they are. Kolb is a senior and you know this means alot to him. Houston is trying to avenge a loss @ SoMiss and lets face it they are the better team. They get a home game here being played @ Reliant Stadium. I would play this game up to -6 as I expect a TD win here by the Cougars. Kolb was able to throw for 330 yards in the 1st meeting and SoMiss benefited from good field position. They also have 2 weeks to prepare. This is a team that beat Ok State and lost by 1 @ Miami. The Golden Eagles are young at QB and RB and that inexperience wil hurt them along with there over reliance on there defense. Last 2 years Kolb has thrown for 300+ against SoMiss and 2 years ago as 17 pt dogs lost in ot @ SoMiss. His only poor game was a Freshman so thi sis his 5th start versus them...and lately SoMiss has shown a few holes in there pass defense....
West Virgina-8 -110 (was hoping for -7 but exploded today to -10) (10x)
Just look at it like this we have a double edges sword. WVU losing at home presented value in the line cause this surely would have been double digits and should be. It also makes you wonder about there motivation since they realy cant win the Big East now but they dont want to lose 2 straight at home IMO. The bottomline is RU is still young and struggles offensively on the road. WVU is tough to run about 3 YPC and that presents a problem for Rutgers. While RU is tough against the run this is a different type attack. RU had trouble winning @ USF and @ UNC and lost @ Cincy how in teh world can they win @ WVU off a home loss??
Pat White did hurt his ankle but I expect him to be okay. For all the talk about the win vs Lville remember they made huge comeback by pressuring Brohm and won by just 3 as 6 pt HOME DOGS. They were dogs at Pitt by 6 while Lville ws -10. True Pitt was playing well when RU came to town and RU started the spiral . I know its different teams but WVU won rather easily @ Rutgers last year. Definetly getting a sleeping giant as WVU scored only 19 pts and lost at home...hoping for -7 but will play under -10......
ACC Championship
GaTech ML -133 (10x)
People seem to be handing WF to much credit after there nice win @ Maryland after the beating that was delivered to them at home by VaTech. As well as dissing GT for Ball's performance and late loss over Georgia. WhatI see here is that GT has the experience factor working. Ball and Calvin Johnson have played in numerous big games while Riley SKinner and WF in some ways are happy to be here. Dont think even they felt they would be playing for the Championship and the writers had them picked to finish last and that was waith Mauck and Andrews in the mix. I think GT takes away the running game for WF and The Deacon Defense can be thrown on. Hollenbach killed the Terps with 3 Ints. WF is 2nd to last in the ACC in pass defense enter 6'5 Calvin Johnson. Feel free to correct me but I dont see WF having any corners even at 6' let alone near 6'5. Choice has been playing well of late even w/o much of a passing game. GT has defeated VaTech and Miami while out playing but losing to ND in there opener(2 losses by FG's). If you see this line as HIGH I owuld disagree. Ask yourself if GT would have been favored in Maryland last week and I would say by at least -4. The Terps are just a very medicore ACC team. Play GT up to -4 IMO.....
Army +21 -120 (5x) Lean ov 49 -101
Last few weeks Army has fallen apart but I thought they played well in spurts @ ND. They managed wins @ Baylor and were a goal stand away from winning @ A&M. Army did some good things that day 5 drives of more then 10 plays and 3 drives of 50 + yds (50 , 76 and 80). For whatever reason starting with Rice the Army squad just began to unravel. This is it though for Army after a disappointing season where expectations were higher. Then can erase alot but defeating Navy and I am hoping they play like they did back early in the season. Take the AF meeting where I feel the final score is so misleading...Army about to take the lead mid 1st Q fumbles and watches it go 98 yds the other way and that semed to deflate them. Next thing you know AF is hanging FIVE 2nd quarter TDs on them (the only Q the offense scored)....If Army puts this season behind them focuses on this game and keeps there defense off the field for long stretches I think they can make this a game. They apppeared to be okay defensively against the AF run attack so maybe there is hope..Navy has been smoking hot but plating teams like Temple , Duke and EMU who just cant defend the option helps..Army at least has experience doing so....
Cal -16.5 -105 1st half (wait)(5x)
The Cal defense has been a disappoint at times this season but Stanford has scored more then 10 points once in the past 2 months. They did it @ Wash another team w/o its starting QB. They needed a pick 6 and somewhat flukish 75Yd TD pass to get 20 points that day. Otherwise they have 0 , 3, 10 on the road . The 10 was @ ND and the TD ws in the 4th Q on I believe a HB option pass. So after 2 losses and playing bad run defense I expect Cal to just jam it down Stanfords throat.....expecting 21-3 or so at half...
TCU -14 -120 (5x) could middle line exploded to -17.5
Played this early on thing TCU is starting to click offensively now that they are healthy and blowing teams out. AF seems to be regressing and was torched at home by TCU last year. Chances were they werent going to score much here so I could see a 31-14 or 35-14 win ....only rpoblem is now this line is running and I might just middle somekey numbers.. AF has lost @ 2 of the weaker conference opponents (UNLV and SDST)....and you just cant run on TCU...should be a long day for them....
Under 50 -105 SJST (3x)
Expecting alot of running here. I think Fresno defense can play well as long as it doesnt stay on the field long. While SJ impressed me by holding Boise to just 23 pts a few weeks back...Fresno had scored 21 or less on the road until facing LTech who is awful defensively...
UCLA +14 -111 (5x)Felt this line should have been closer to 10 pts. Everything is clicking for USC now but they have still struggled on the road in conference play outside of Stanford. UCLA seems to have regained some momentum with wins over Oregon State and @ ASU. Lets see if the Trojan offense can score on a solid defense ...expecting a 27-17 game....looking at under 48..
Looking at or Played but havent commented:
Ohio U +3.5 -115 (6x) ML +139 (2x) and Under (lean wait till half)
(Big favs) Louisville -27 -105 and Cal -28 -105 as well as 1st Half.. -16.5 -105 on both
Monday November 27th Thoughts
NFL
For what its worth earlier in the week I made a play on GB +9.5(5x). After a week not so sure I like the play anymore and the line is +10.5 now. Didnt like the fact SEA OL is banged up and Hasselback has to be rusty with long layoff. It doesnt seem like he is obvioulsy ready to play. GB run defense is solid and GB solid dog of 6 or better past few years. Alot of GB injuries as well though...looked for GB to bounce back off SHUTOUT.....not sure anymore....
NBA
Miami Heat ML -145 (5x) middled with Philly +3.5 -105 (6x)
Over 195 -121 (7x)
Something just seems odd at how this line opened at -3-105 and how has plus vig. Havent seen one reason to take Philly...so a safe middle with 1.25 unit risk basically..Also the Philly team total went from 96 to 97 with really no move at all in the total maybe 3 dollars on the vig side.....VERY ODD
With Riley's lineup shuffling the offense has produced 100 points in consecutive games for the 1st time this season (and nearly consecutive wins) . The emergence of Dorrell Wright(6'8 F/G) will give Miami the edge on the glass which Philly will attempt to neutralize with its advantage in shooting the three. Though Miami is much better at home from beyond the arc. In the 1st meeting Miami lead by 7 at half but collapsed in the 2nd ! This game was played without Jason Williams and with little contribution from Wright or Kapuano...Shaq was out though. Philly has had injuries issues with Webber and Stephen Hunter missing significant time. CWebb is still out and Hunter still questionable. Philly has received increased contributions from Randolph in there absence and new found confidence in Willie Green. Both teams shot poor from the FT line in the 1st meeting yet the game soared into the 200's. Last 2 games Heat are 53 / 70 (76%) from the FT line. While Philly games average about 60-65 FT's....which are great for overs.. I like the over cause basically I have confidence in Philly getting 95 , 96 pts and Miami again crackinga 100..just seeing if I can get some better numbers...This has become a home DOMINANTED series with the home team going 9 -1 and Miami winning there last 5 at home aftre losing 5 straight at home to Philly. Home team 6-1 ATS last 7 meetings , Philly 1-4 ATS last 5 in Miami and only once has Philly lost by less then 10 pts in Miami (8 points). Thanks to the Heat struggles 1-6 ATS at home 2-5 SU you get the Heat who were favored by 3 in philly to -3 at home...
Timberwolves +9.5 -110 (8x) ML +400 (1/2x)
Under 184.5 -110 (4x)
I guess I continue to feel that Minny is simply underrated. The Mavs are on fire and have there last 3 home opponents in check offensively 73 , 80 , 84 . However that was a Peja and West - less Hornets , a Wiz team that went ICE COLD in the 2nd H(stink on the road) and ended with 80 and the Grizz wth 84 can be offensively challenged. I thought +6 was about where this should be. Couple games back Dal was only -10 to Memphis , they were only -10 to the Hornets w/o 2 key players. Both meetings in Dal last year the MAVS needed to pull away in the 4th quarter to win by 3 and 6 points. Minny has played well versus Dallas in the past but I caution that point cause this is a new Minny team. With Foye and Craigh Smith getting some minutes now. Wally gone and enter Ricky Davis. Blount playing at Center over the other rejects , Mike James at the point...but Dallas is basically the same with a difference in there bench. The key will be defending Dallas deep ball...With Dal holding opponnets to about 40% past 5 games and Minny scoring bewteen 76-88 last 5 away I figure Wolves to be about 85 pts here. If I feel Minny is the play then so must be the under with Dallas around 92 pts...Both teams are hot but Dallas going for 9th straight makes me feel this is FAT! During the streak at home DAL was -4 Chi , -10 Mem , -5 Wiz , and -9.5 NO ....DOG is 6-1 ATS last 7 series...and 16-5 ATS last 21 . The UNDER is 19-7 Last 26 away Minny and 29-8 for Dallas against teh Northwest divsion.
Magic +6 -108 (4x) ML +210 (1/2x)
Over 197.5 -108 (6x)
The Magic have played well against the West excluding the loss @ Memphis which they fell apart in the 4th quarter after leading throughout. They defeated Seattle and Denver at home plus winning @ Minny. The Jazz have struggled somewhat at home vs East teams with narrow defeats over Detriot and Toronto. They lost @ NJ but won close games in MILW and Boston earlier. As for situational analysis Utah does host SA on Wednesday and Orl begins a 6 game road trip here. The Jazz finally after 4 huge comebacks were abit short in GS. Utah is off a loss but could they be thinking more about SA here? With the struggles ORL has had away they certainly are focused on getting off the trip on the right foot. Orl is 2-8 SU past 10 in Utah but are 2-3 SU losing by 2,5 , and 7 pts last 5 in Utah. These teams get to the FT line alot avg 30 + FT attempts and combined for in the 70's in the meetings last year. The Magic defense seems to start good and then fade as the road games progress (1st H 43 pts and 2nd H 53 pts allowed) but Utah avgs 109 at home starting 55 1st H points...
To me ORL keys are simple 3 pt shooting percentage and FT percentage... Magic are 7-1 L8 as DOG and 13-5-2 ATS vs Northwest. Utah 5-12-1 L18 as favorite and 3-9-1 last 13 vs East.
The Over is 20-6 for Utah L26 vs East and Over is 21-8 following aUtah SU loss. Orl is also 5-0-1 L 6 meetings.
Warriors + 4 -110 (6x) ML +168 (1.5x)
Under 196 -105 (3x)
We all know about SA back to back issues now 2-2 ATS this year but just 9-20 past 29 ATS in these spots. Last time out I argued cause we were so in tune to these spots books had shaded these situations. In this matchup I dont think that has happened. However I cant say for sure with Baron Davis being Out and Giniboli being Out. Clearly a PG Baron Davis is the more valuable loss and not sure exactly how this has been shaded in the line. Pietrus is also a player I would like to see active here after missing SAT with the stomach flu. Recently GS has been +1 at home to Utah and won as well as +3.5 to Suns but losing on a buzzer beater. So where is SA inrelation to those teams? Well Spurs have been -6 or -7 to NYK , Port , and Tor on the road. All 3 are bottomfeeders while right now GS has proven to be one of the better teams in the league. last nite SEA gave SA a game till they fell to pieces late and were only -4. Clearly GS is better then Sea and love that SA has Utah on deck. They also are playing 34d in 4 nites ...Dallas on Fri , @ Port on Sun and here @ GS.
Spurs have won last 3 in GS and are 3-2 SU last 5 but GS own a 2 and 3 pt loss in this span. SA is 7-0 away and ATS!! I think thats due to the fact they have been undervalued a few times away...dogged twice ...and as I said 3 biggest spreads were to 3 bad teams andthe higgest number was -7. All the trend point to GS here :
GS 6-0-1 ATS last 7 as small home dog
GS 8-1 ATS L9 at home
GS 38-13-3 as home Dog
GS 25-9 ATS off SU off win of 10+
Home team 8-3 ATS
Like the under here but wonder was GS defense vs Utah the balancing act of there effort vs DEN. Think Den shoot 55% the worst GS has allowed and Utah 32% the best GS has allowed.. Spurs only scoring lows 90's in back to backs and GS played well against Utahs big front line. Havent decided yet with alot of over trends but it seems unlikely SA hits a 100...
TEAM TOTALS
Over 99 -104 Miami (2.5x)
Over 96 -108 Philly (1x)
Under 88 -108 Minny (1.5x)
Under 96.5 -110 Dal (2x)
Over 102 -105 Utah (2x)
Over 96 -110 Orl (1x)
Under 100 -108 SA (1.5x)
1stH
Ov 95.5 -108 Miami (2x)
Under 97.5 -123 SA (2x)
NCAAB
NFL
For what its worth earlier in the week I made a play on GB +9.5(5x). After a week not so sure I like the play anymore and the line is +10.5 now. Didnt like the fact SEA OL is banged up and Hasselback has to be rusty with long layoff. It doesnt seem like he is obvioulsy ready to play. GB run defense is solid and GB solid dog of 6 or better past few years. Alot of GB injuries as well though...looked for GB to bounce back off SHUTOUT.....not sure anymore....
NBA
Miami Heat ML -145 (5x) middled with Philly +3.5 -105 (6x)
Over 195 -121 (7x)
Something just seems odd at how this line opened at -3-105 and how has plus vig. Havent seen one reason to take Philly...so a safe middle with 1.25 unit risk basically..Also the Philly team total went from 96 to 97 with really no move at all in the total maybe 3 dollars on the vig side.....VERY ODD
With Riley's lineup shuffling the offense has produced 100 points in consecutive games for the 1st time this season (and nearly consecutive wins) . The emergence of Dorrell Wright(6'8 F/G) will give Miami the edge on the glass which Philly will attempt to neutralize with its advantage in shooting the three. Though Miami is much better at home from beyond the arc. In the 1st meeting Miami lead by 7 at half but collapsed in the 2nd ! This game was played without Jason Williams and with little contribution from Wright or Kapuano...Shaq was out though. Philly has had injuries issues with Webber and Stephen Hunter missing significant time. CWebb is still out and Hunter still questionable. Philly has received increased contributions from Randolph in there absence and new found confidence in Willie Green. Both teams shot poor from the FT line in the 1st meeting yet the game soared into the 200's. Last 2 games Heat are 53 / 70 (76%) from the FT line. While Philly games average about 60-65 FT's....which are great for overs.. I like the over cause basically I have confidence in Philly getting 95 , 96 pts and Miami again crackinga 100..just seeing if I can get some better numbers...This has become a home DOMINANTED series with the home team going 9 -1 and Miami winning there last 5 at home aftre losing 5 straight at home to Philly. Home team 6-1 ATS last 7 meetings , Philly 1-4 ATS last 5 in Miami and only once has Philly lost by less then 10 pts in Miami (8 points). Thanks to the Heat struggles 1-6 ATS at home 2-5 SU you get the Heat who were favored by 3 in philly to -3 at home...
Timberwolves +9.5 -110 (8x) ML +400 (1/2x)
Under 184.5 -110 (4x)
I guess I continue to feel that Minny is simply underrated. The Mavs are on fire and have there last 3 home opponents in check offensively 73 , 80 , 84 . However that was a Peja and West - less Hornets , a Wiz team that went ICE COLD in the 2nd H(stink on the road) and ended with 80 and the Grizz wth 84 can be offensively challenged. I thought +6 was about where this should be. Couple games back Dal was only -10 to Memphis , they were only -10 to the Hornets w/o 2 key players. Both meetings in Dal last year the MAVS needed to pull away in the 4th quarter to win by 3 and 6 points. Minny has played well versus Dallas in the past but I caution that point cause this is a new Minny team. With Foye and Craigh Smith getting some minutes now. Wally gone and enter Ricky Davis. Blount playing at Center over the other rejects , Mike James at the point...but Dallas is basically the same with a difference in there bench. The key will be defending Dallas deep ball...With Dal holding opponnets to about 40% past 5 games and Minny scoring bewteen 76-88 last 5 away I figure Wolves to be about 85 pts here. If I feel Minny is the play then so must be the under with Dallas around 92 pts...Both teams are hot but Dallas going for 9th straight makes me feel this is FAT! During the streak at home DAL was -4 Chi , -10 Mem , -5 Wiz , and -9.5 NO ....DOG is 6-1 ATS last 7 series...and 16-5 ATS last 21 . The UNDER is 19-7 Last 26 away Minny and 29-8 for Dallas against teh Northwest divsion.
Magic +6 -108 (4x) ML +210 (1/2x)
Over 197.5 -108 (6x)
The Magic have played well against the West excluding the loss @ Memphis which they fell apart in the 4th quarter after leading throughout. They defeated Seattle and Denver at home plus winning @ Minny. The Jazz have struggled somewhat at home vs East teams with narrow defeats over Detriot and Toronto. They lost @ NJ but won close games in MILW and Boston earlier. As for situational analysis Utah does host SA on Wednesday and Orl begins a 6 game road trip here. The Jazz finally after 4 huge comebacks were abit short in GS. Utah is off a loss but could they be thinking more about SA here? With the struggles ORL has had away they certainly are focused on getting off the trip on the right foot. Orl is 2-8 SU past 10 in Utah but are 2-3 SU losing by 2,5 , and 7 pts last 5 in Utah. These teams get to the FT line alot avg 30 + FT attempts and combined for in the 70's in the meetings last year. The Magic defense seems to start good and then fade as the road games progress (1st H 43 pts and 2nd H 53 pts allowed) but Utah avgs 109 at home starting 55 1st H points...
To me ORL keys are simple 3 pt shooting percentage and FT percentage... Magic are 7-1 L8 as DOG and 13-5-2 ATS vs Northwest. Utah 5-12-1 L18 as favorite and 3-9-1 last 13 vs East.
The Over is 20-6 for Utah L26 vs East and Over is 21-8 following aUtah SU loss. Orl is also 5-0-1 L 6 meetings.
Warriors + 4 -110 (6x) ML +168 (1.5x)
Under 196 -105 (3x)
We all know about SA back to back issues now 2-2 ATS this year but just 9-20 past 29 ATS in these spots. Last time out I argued cause we were so in tune to these spots books had shaded these situations. In this matchup I dont think that has happened. However I cant say for sure with Baron Davis being Out and Giniboli being Out. Clearly a PG Baron Davis is the more valuable loss and not sure exactly how this has been shaded in the line. Pietrus is also a player I would like to see active here after missing SAT with the stomach flu. Recently GS has been +1 at home to Utah and won as well as +3.5 to Suns but losing on a buzzer beater. So where is SA inrelation to those teams? Well Spurs have been -6 or -7 to NYK , Port , and Tor on the road. All 3 are bottomfeeders while right now GS has proven to be one of the better teams in the league. last nite SEA gave SA a game till they fell to pieces late and were only -4. Clearly GS is better then Sea and love that SA has Utah on deck. They also are playing 34d in 4 nites ...Dallas on Fri , @ Port on Sun and here @ GS.
Spurs have won last 3 in GS and are 3-2 SU last 5 but GS own a 2 and 3 pt loss in this span. SA is 7-0 away and ATS!! I think thats due to the fact they have been undervalued a few times away...dogged twice ...and as I said 3 biggest spreads were to 3 bad teams andthe higgest number was -7. All the trend point to GS here :
GS 6-0-1 ATS last 7 as small home dog
GS 8-1 ATS L9 at home
GS 38-13-3 as home Dog
GS 25-9 ATS off SU off win of 10+
Home team 8-3 ATS
Like the under here but wonder was GS defense vs Utah the balancing act of there effort vs DEN. Think Den shoot 55% the worst GS has allowed and Utah 32% the best GS has allowed.. Spurs only scoring lows 90's in back to backs and GS played well against Utahs big front line. Havent decided yet with alot of over trends but it seems unlikely SA hits a 100...
TEAM TOTALS
Over 99 -104 Miami (2.5x)
Over 96 -108 Philly (1x)
Under 88 -108 Minny (1.5x)
Under 96.5 -110 Dal (2x)
Over 102 -105 Utah (2x)
Over 96 -110 Orl (1x)
Under 100 -108 SA (1.5x)
1stH
Ov 95.5 -108 Miami (2x)
Under 97.5 -123 SA (2x)
NCAAB
Michigan ML -130(3x) 2nd H Mich -2 -125 (3x) Atsur was injured LOSS BOTH
-Basically we have 4 seniors @ Michigan who have failed to live up to expectations versus a NCST looking to rebuild under Sidney Lowe. I hate that this is Michigans 1stroad teast but having 4 senior starters hopefully helps overcome that. Also I dont like some of the Wolfpacks D %'s see Wofford and Gardner Webb from the floor....Both teams struglling from teh FT line but I feel that beside that and home court Mich has all the edges...
Over 151 -109 Wofford (1x) LOSS
Greensboro -4 -110 (5x)WIN 2nd H Greensboro +2 -121 (2x) WIN
-This game will see a ton 3 pt attempts clearly the key is how manythe hit. Wofford allowing 50% from the floor and they havent exactly played anyone outside of Ciny who they beat. Wofford historically has struggled @ Greensboro..
Buffalo +8.5 -110 (8x) WIN ML +288(1x) WIN
- basically you have a Buff team shooting below 40% on the year and playing @ Temple...never a good mix. Gone is Coach Cheaney and enter Fran Dunphy in his 1st game as head coach at home and I know he is putting a significant amount of pressure on himself to win this game. Look at how the man talks about Big 5 basketball...he says he is now the caretaker of Temple bball. Temple has been hit with player losses withCollins gradutaing , Marshall injured and Tynsdale ineligible early at least 6 games. The offense is on Salisbury shoulders and the kid can shot the rock but his shot selction in the past was poor. He really appears to be there lone scorer. Looking for a low scoring grind it out game. Buff has some nice road wins & neutral court wins Iona , Canisus , Miami , Cle State.
Rider +4.5 -110 (3x)WIN ML +188 (1x) WIN/MIDDLE 2nd H ML Drexel -144(3x)LOSS
-Basically the home teams wins this series. Drexel has not played well on the road in recent times and is chalk. Rider played them tight at Drexel last season before fading late...
Under 58 -132 1st h (2x)Loss Under 124 -112 (2x) Gtown WIN
Ball State +9 +101 (2x) Loss ball State +16.5 -110 (2x) WIN
2nd H +6.5 -118(3x)WIN
-Expecting Ball State in the low 50's here and the Hoyas are questionable to cover so I dont think they crack 70. The Thompson brothers square off and with Gtown struggling think its not a blowout. Possibly 2nd H under...
StPeters +11.5 -110 (7x)LOSS
On paper this look strange but this is a big rivalry game. While KeeKee Clark is gone sharp shootin Orta & Sowell remain(new head coach and believe they have SH ties). SH also had some turnover and its tough to get a feel for them early. Really this is a play against SH as big chalk in rivalry game which was decided by 9 last year. Pirates lost Whitney and Copeland as well. Keydren Clark actually played poorly last year in this matchup with 10 turnovers and 23 pts...SPC is 8-2 ATS past 10 meetings...however please note in many years they were 20+ pt dogs and recently low teens...
ULL +12 -109 (3x) WIN
Lets see how Tenny rebounds after MSG...ULL has thebig men to possibly give them trouble lets see...
2nd H
Over 70 -108 Temple (2x) LOSS
George Mason 6 -121 (2x) WIN
Saturday, November 25, 2006
Saturday Thoughts
Maryland ML -114 (6x)-
Feel that WF has not been able to throw the ball on the road and with Harris now OUT that run game is extremely questionable. Maryland was great for a stretch at finding ways not to beat themselves then the BC game happen...2 fumbles for scoes in the 1st Q and they didnt have the firepower to comeback. Terps undefetaed at home and know how to win and play sound football. I see WF a team that has relied on defense and the running game...w/o a running game the defense might be the next to go...battle for the ACC Championship spot vs GT.
Missouri -7 -111(3x)-
Fading KU off the home win vs Kansas State. Missouri is desperate for a win here. Really like Mizzou here but KU is playing better lately and has played well in all road games. I do like the over and may add that( 51.5 +102 will wait till half).
Duke +7.5 -120 (4x) ML +228 (1x)-
Basically UNC has played 4 sound games lately but is still prone to turnovers at the wrong time. I cant say Duke has shown improvement but it also hasnt regressed. Its a huge rivalary game and UNC defeated rival NCST who is abysmal on the road and is now ROAD CHALK @ 2-9! Duke can throw the ball abit at home and thats UNC weakness IMO. UNC in 3 road ACC games scored 14 total points! An equally as bad Duke team gave a better UNC squad a scare last season at Chapel Hill so why not here??
UCF -2.5 -113 (5x) / UAB +4 (2x) Under 47 -110 (5x)-
We all know about the QB situation for UAB. I do caution in people assuming this kid cant play (Webb). He in mop up duty @ So Miss appeared to put up some numbers 8 /12 137 TD and 13c 33 yds...Kenny Smith still questionable for UCF. Like the fact UAb is basically reeling at this point and with both QB's out could just be thinking about the season ending..questioning there motivation not if they are quitting. You would think UCF would try its hardest to at elast end a disappointing season with a win. They have switched bewteen Moffet and Isreal lately and UAB can be thrown on. UCF defense has improved last 3 and that has been UABs strong suit. Both teams do have some injured players on defense but I am to lazy to cheeck there significance...hey I am being honest!
Ok State +6.5 -110 (5x ) ML +206 (1x)
waiting to see if we get 7 though- OU has to be applauded for overcoming injuries this season. I guess I would somehow compare to this to the TAMU game cause even though Ok St is a different team ...explosive offense , medicore defense I think they keep this rivalry game interesting. Losing your starting QB and two top RB s just has to catch up to you eventually. Ok State exploiting NEB makes me confident they keep this is a game...
SMU +100 (4x)-
Clement probably doesnt play and when healthy I thought these teams were fairly even. SMU better defense and Rice better offense but with backup QBs that advantage is negetated IMO....Rice got so many breaks to win last week vs ECU...
SoMiss -6.5 -111 (3x) lean Ov 48.5-108-
Marshall just hasnt done enough on the road to impress me here. SoMiss defense at home is stout allwoing apprzx270 yards and little on the ground. Marshall allows 400 yds per away and 4.3 YPC. Marshall had trouble @ SMU and ECU similiar teams IMO to this So Miss team which has defeated Houston and NCST at home. Also they won @ Marshall last year.
Florida State +10 -110 (5x) ML +290 (1/2x)-
this is play against FLA on the road with its leaky pass defense. It doesnt score much on the road and thats makes it poor road chalk 0-3 this year..Clearly FLA is the better team here but home field and rivalry hopefully aid the Seminoles
Utah +11 -110(5x) ML +350 (1x)-
BYU is on a roll but do they get complacent(sp?) after excepting a bowl bid?? The two UTES have had success agains them in the past (lame attempt at a My Cousin Vinny reference...) Revenge could be a concern but Utah has won 4 straight in the series so thats really a stretch IMO. Also Ratliff had 4 TDs on the road in that one. Also Utah has be tough at home except the Boise State egg. I take something out of the fact they were actally favored by 5 and favored over TCU at home ( they won)...live dog here. Just who has BYU beaten anyway...I loved them @ TCU cause +7 was to many but against a similiar rated team they are now -10 in the same situation!!
Miss State +3 -108 (3x) ML +131 (1x)- Assuming Connor is the QB here and think State is the better team. Hoping Ole Miss is thinking about the one that got away...ASU +3.5 -110 (3x) ML +144 (1.5x)- Zona basically snuck up on everyone. I mean ASU was laying -2.5 to WSU while Zona was catching DD three straight weeks. Same type deal as Ore - Ore St. Some WR injuries I need to look at
Pitt +11 -105 (3x) Lean Under 59-
Think Lville has been inconsistent on the road. Pitt played for a half against WVU then diasappeared.Georgia -2.5 -105 (3x)- Have to think GT has the ACC Championship on its mind here even in such a big rivalry game. I am sure Ball doesnt want to never ebat GA though. Just gonna ride the home team...hoping the AUB win gives them some momentum...
UVA +17 -105 (5x) mL +620 (1/2x)-
Figured Ore was out and UVA continues to improve..(Lewis Q as well).hopefully they do better then FSU. Truth is VT isnt great as a big chalk see Kent State game....UVA has more to prove which makes them dangerous..confidence has to be high after defeating Miami...
South Carolina +5 -105 (5x) ML +194 (1x)Under 46.5 +111 waiting (3x)-
The magic number 5...cant be 3 cause then they load up Clemson, cant be 7 cause then its SC money...so smack in the middle. The Tigers have ben reeling forawhile now and SC has played its best ball on the road IMO...one FG , one XP away from being 4-0 and handing FLA a defeat. Now one has topped 17 on SC away and the Tiger Offense is struggling past 3 games
USC -7 -120 (7x) Under 57 -110 (2x)-
This is about the Trojan defense. All season ND has struggled to run and unbalanced attack just doesnt seem to have a hot. After all the years ofoffensive juggernauts @ USC its the time the DEF got their respect! Cal 9 points!!! Seems like the Ore St loss woke them up !! ND has played no one at all . People just remember last years game. While USC was better ND probably was playing better as well...it seems this game is getting steamed lately..thought it would have been at least -10..look what Mich did and they are similiar teams...
UTEP -12 -114 (3x)-
Cause Memphis stinks and people will think theyhung with Houston...
Over 74 -105 Hawaii (3x)Over 45.5 -120 Hawaii team (5x)-
Of all the Hawaii games this should be a shootout. Purdues comments about being disinterested scared me ...
Some more :
Under 55 -105 WVU (2x)
USF defense has been pretty good all year its abit banged up right now. However I was thinking that WVU would probably top out at 38 here. On offense Ponon is questionable at RB and the USF offense has been questionable most of the year on the road behind a young QB. See games @ Louisville , KU , and Cincy. All better defenses then WVU but could barely crack 7 in those games.
Over 39.5 -116 Tenny (4x)
Kentucky defense just allowed how many at home to who?? UL-Monroe ..40....31 @ Miss St and 49 @ LSU. The Vols offense is healthy again...
Over 21 -108 Cincy team (2x)
Like the New QB for Cincy and UConn defense as we know is young. We also know the Cincy D could be good for 6.
Over 28.5 +105 SoMiss (1x)Its Marshall's Defense..
Over 35.5 -108 UTEP (1x)Its Memphis defense....
Under 27 -131 VaTech (2x)UVA defense on the rise and VaTech dinged up on offense. Just 23 at home vs Kent St 2 weeks ago..
Under 24.5 -141 Notre Dame (1x)Cal just 9...hmmmmmnn...
Maryland ML -114 (6x)-
Feel that WF has not been able to throw the ball on the road and with Harris now OUT that run game is extremely questionable. Maryland was great for a stretch at finding ways not to beat themselves then the BC game happen...2 fumbles for scoes in the 1st Q and they didnt have the firepower to comeback. Terps undefetaed at home and know how to win and play sound football. I see WF a team that has relied on defense and the running game...w/o a running game the defense might be the next to go...battle for the ACC Championship spot vs GT.
Missouri -7 -111(3x)-
Fading KU off the home win vs Kansas State. Missouri is desperate for a win here. Really like Mizzou here but KU is playing better lately and has played well in all road games. I do like the over and may add that( 51.5 +102 will wait till half).
Duke +7.5 -120 (4x) ML +228 (1x)-
Basically UNC has played 4 sound games lately but is still prone to turnovers at the wrong time. I cant say Duke has shown improvement but it also hasnt regressed. Its a huge rivalary game and UNC defeated rival NCST who is abysmal on the road and is now ROAD CHALK @ 2-9! Duke can throw the ball abit at home and thats UNC weakness IMO. UNC in 3 road ACC games scored 14 total points! An equally as bad Duke team gave a better UNC squad a scare last season at Chapel Hill so why not here??
UCF -2.5 -113 (5x) / UAB +4 (2x) Under 47 -110 (5x)-
We all know about the QB situation for UAB. I do caution in people assuming this kid cant play (Webb). He in mop up duty @ So Miss appeared to put up some numbers 8 /12 137 TD and 13c 33 yds...Kenny Smith still questionable for UCF. Like the fact UAb is basically reeling at this point and with both QB's out could just be thinking about the season ending..questioning there motivation not if they are quitting. You would think UCF would try its hardest to at elast end a disappointing season with a win. They have switched bewteen Moffet and Isreal lately and UAB can be thrown on. UCF defense has improved last 3 and that has been UABs strong suit. Both teams do have some injured players on defense but I am to lazy to cheeck there significance...hey I am being honest!
Ok State +6.5 -110 (5x ) ML +206 (1x)
waiting to see if we get 7 though- OU has to be applauded for overcoming injuries this season. I guess I would somehow compare to this to the TAMU game cause even though Ok St is a different team ...explosive offense , medicore defense I think they keep this rivalry game interesting. Losing your starting QB and two top RB s just has to catch up to you eventually. Ok State exploiting NEB makes me confident they keep this is a game...
SMU +100 (4x)-
Clement probably doesnt play and when healthy I thought these teams were fairly even. SMU better defense and Rice better offense but with backup QBs that advantage is negetated IMO....Rice got so many breaks to win last week vs ECU...
SoMiss -6.5 -111 (3x) lean Ov 48.5-108-
Marshall just hasnt done enough on the road to impress me here. SoMiss defense at home is stout allwoing apprzx270 yards and little on the ground. Marshall allows 400 yds per away and 4.3 YPC. Marshall had trouble @ SMU and ECU similiar teams IMO to this So Miss team which has defeated Houston and NCST at home. Also they won @ Marshall last year.
Florida State +10 -110 (5x) ML +290 (1/2x)-
this is play against FLA on the road with its leaky pass defense. It doesnt score much on the road and thats makes it poor road chalk 0-3 this year..Clearly FLA is the better team here but home field and rivalry hopefully aid the Seminoles
Utah +11 -110(5x) ML +350 (1x)-
BYU is on a roll but do they get complacent(sp?) after excepting a bowl bid?? The two UTES have had success agains them in the past (lame attempt at a My Cousin Vinny reference...) Revenge could be a concern but Utah has won 4 straight in the series so thats really a stretch IMO. Also Ratliff had 4 TDs on the road in that one. Also Utah has be tough at home except the Boise State egg. I take something out of the fact they were actally favored by 5 and favored over TCU at home ( they won)...live dog here. Just who has BYU beaten anyway...I loved them @ TCU cause +7 was to many but against a similiar rated team they are now -10 in the same situation!!
Miss State +3 -108 (3x) ML +131 (1x)- Assuming Connor is the QB here and think State is the better team. Hoping Ole Miss is thinking about the one that got away...ASU +3.5 -110 (3x) ML +144 (1.5x)- Zona basically snuck up on everyone. I mean ASU was laying -2.5 to WSU while Zona was catching DD three straight weeks. Same type deal as Ore - Ore St. Some WR injuries I need to look at
Pitt +11 -105 (3x) Lean Under 59-
Think Lville has been inconsistent on the road. Pitt played for a half against WVU then diasappeared.Georgia -2.5 -105 (3x)- Have to think GT has the ACC Championship on its mind here even in such a big rivalry game. I am sure Ball doesnt want to never ebat GA though. Just gonna ride the home team...hoping the AUB win gives them some momentum...
UVA +17 -105 (5x) mL +620 (1/2x)-
Figured Ore was out and UVA continues to improve..(Lewis Q as well).hopefully they do better then FSU. Truth is VT isnt great as a big chalk see Kent State game....UVA has more to prove which makes them dangerous..confidence has to be high after defeating Miami...
South Carolina +5 -105 (5x) ML +194 (1x)Under 46.5 +111 waiting (3x)-
The magic number 5...cant be 3 cause then they load up Clemson, cant be 7 cause then its SC money...so smack in the middle. The Tigers have ben reeling forawhile now and SC has played its best ball on the road IMO...one FG , one XP away from being 4-0 and handing FLA a defeat. Now one has topped 17 on SC away and the Tiger Offense is struggling past 3 games
USC -7 -120 (7x) Under 57 -110 (2x)-
This is about the Trojan defense. All season ND has struggled to run and unbalanced attack just doesnt seem to have a hot. After all the years ofoffensive juggernauts @ USC its the time the DEF got their respect! Cal 9 points!!! Seems like the Ore St loss woke them up !! ND has played no one at all . People just remember last years game. While USC was better ND probably was playing better as well...it seems this game is getting steamed lately..thought it would have been at least -10..look what Mich did and they are similiar teams...
UTEP -12 -114 (3x)-
Cause Memphis stinks and people will think theyhung with Houston...
Over 74 -105 Hawaii (3x)Over 45.5 -120 Hawaii team (5x)-
Of all the Hawaii games this should be a shootout. Purdues comments about being disinterested scared me ...
Some more :
Under 55 -105 WVU (2x)
USF defense has been pretty good all year its abit banged up right now. However I was thinking that WVU would probably top out at 38 here. On offense Ponon is questionable at RB and the USF offense has been questionable most of the year on the road behind a young QB. See games @ Louisville , KU , and Cincy. All better defenses then WVU but could barely crack 7 in those games.
Over 39.5 -116 Tenny (4x)
Kentucky defense just allowed how many at home to who?? UL-Monroe ..40....31 @ Miss St and 49 @ LSU. The Vols offense is healthy again...
Over 21 -108 Cincy team (2x)
Like the New QB for Cincy and UConn defense as we know is young. We also know the Cincy D could be good for 6.
Over 28.5 +105 SoMiss (1x)Its Marshall's Defense..
Over 35.5 -108 UTEP (1x)Its Memphis defense....
Under 27 -131 VaTech (2x)UVA defense on the rise and VaTech dinged up on offense. Just 23 at home vs Kent St 2 weeks ago..
Under 24.5 -141 Notre Dame (1x)Cal just 9...hmmmmmnn...
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