Monday November 27th Thoughts


NFL
For what its worth earlier in the week I made a play on GB +9.5(5x). After a week not so sure I like the play anymore and the line is +10.5 now. Didnt like the fact SEA OL is banged up and Hasselback has to be rusty with long layoff. It doesnt seem like he is obvioulsy ready to play. GB run defense is solid and GB solid dog of 6 or better past few years. Alot of GB injuries as well though...looked for GB to bounce back off SHUTOUT.....not sure anymore....

NBA

Miami Heat ML -145 (5x) middled with Philly +3.5 -105 (6x)
Over 195 -121 (7x)

Something just seems odd at how this line opened at -3-105 and how has plus vig. Havent seen one reason to take Philly...so a safe middle with 1.25 unit risk basically..Also the Philly team total went from 96 to 97 with really no move at all in the total maybe 3 dollars on the vig side.....VERY ODD



With Riley's lineup shuffling the offense has produced 100 points in consecutive games for the 1st time this season (and nearly consecutive wins) . The emergence of Dorrell Wright(6'8 F/G) will give Miami the edge on the glass which Philly will attempt to neutralize with its advantage in shooting the three. Though Miami is much better at home from beyond the arc. In the 1st meeting Miami lead by 7 at half but collapsed in the 2nd ! This game was played without Jason Williams and with little contribution from Wright or Kapuano...Shaq was out though. Philly has had injuries issues with Webber and Stephen Hunter missing significant time. CWebb is still out and Hunter still questionable. Philly has received increased contributions from Randolph in there absence and new found confidence in Willie Green. Both teams shot poor from the FT line in the 1st meeting yet the game soared into the 200's. Last 2 games Heat are 53 / 70 (76%) from the FT line. While Philly games average about 60-65 FT's....which are great for overs.. I like the over cause basically I have confidence in Philly getting 95 , 96 pts and Miami again crackinga 100..just seeing if I can get some better numbers...This has become a home DOMINANTED series with the home team going 9 -1 and Miami winning there last 5 at home aftre losing 5 straight at home to Philly. Home team 6-1 ATS last 7 meetings , Philly 1-4 ATS last 5 in Miami and only once has Philly lost by less then 10 pts in Miami (8 points). Thanks to the Heat struggles 1-6 ATS at home 2-5 SU you get the Heat who were favored by 3 in philly to -3 at home...

Timberwolves +9.5 -110 (8x) ML +400 (1/2x)
Under 184.5 -110 (4x)

I guess I continue to feel that Minny is simply underrated. The Mavs are on fire and have there last 3 home opponents in check offensively 73 , 80 , 84 . However that was a Peja and West - less Hornets , a Wiz team that went ICE COLD in the 2nd H(stink on the road) and ended with 80 and the Grizz wth 84 can be offensively challenged. I thought +6 was about where this should be. Couple games back Dal was only -10 to Memphis , they were only -10 to the Hornets w/o 2 key players. Both meetings in Dal last year the MAVS needed to pull away in the 4th quarter to win by 3 and 6 points. Minny has played well versus Dallas in the past but I caution that point cause this is a new Minny team. With Foye and Craigh Smith getting some minutes now. Wally gone and enter Ricky Davis. Blount playing at Center over the other rejects , Mike James at the point...but Dallas is basically the same with a difference in there bench. The key will be defending Dallas deep ball...With Dal holding opponnets to about 40% past 5 games and Minny scoring bewteen 76-88 last 5 away I figure Wolves to be about 85 pts here. If I feel Minny is the play then so must be the under with Dallas around 92 pts...Both teams are hot but Dallas going for 9th straight makes me feel this is FAT! During the streak at home DAL was -4 Chi , -10 Mem , -5 Wiz , and -9.5 NO ....DOG is 6-1 ATS last 7 series...and 16-5 ATS last 21 . The UNDER is 19-7 Last 26 away Minny and 29-8 for Dallas against teh Northwest divsion.

Magic +6 -108 (4x) ML +210 (1/2x)
Over 197.5 -108 (6x)

The Magic have played well against the West excluding the loss @ Memphis which they fell apart in the 4th quarter after leading throughout. They defeated Seattle and Denver at home plus winning @ Minny. The Jazz have struggled somewhat at home vs East teams with narrow defeats over Detriot and Toronto. They lost @ NJ but won close games in MILW and Boston earlier. As for situational analysis Utah does host SA on Wednesday and Orl begins a 6 game road trip here. The Jazz finally after 4 huge comebacks were abit short in GS. Utah is off a loss but could they be thinking more about SA here? With the struggles ORL has had away they certainly are focused on getting off the trip on the right foot. Orl is 2-8 SU past 10 in Utah but are 2-3 SU losing by 2,5 , and 7 pts last 5 in Utah. These teams get to the FT line alot avg 30 + FT attempts and combined for in the 70's in the meetings last year. The Magic defense seems to start good and then fade as the road games progress (1st H 43 pts and 2nd H 53 pts allowed) but Utah avgs 109 at home starting 55 1st H points...

To me ORL keys are simple 3 pt shooting percentage and FT percentage... Magic are 7-1 L8 as DOG and 13-5-2 ATS vs Northwest. Utah 5-12-1 L18 as favorite and 3-9-1 last 13 vs East.
The Over is 20-6 for Utah L26 vs East and Over is 21-8 following aUtah SU loss. Orl is also 5-0-1 L 6 meetings.


Warriors + 4 -110 (6x) ML +168 (1.5x)
Under 196 -105 (3x)

We all know about SA back to back issues now 2-2 ATS this year but just 9-20 past 29 ATS in these spots. Last time out I argued cause we were so in tune to these spots books had shaded these situations. In this matchup I dont think that has happened. However I cant say for sure with Baron Davis being Out and Giniboli being Out. Clearly a PG Baron Davis is the more valuable loss and not sure exactly how this has been shaded in the line. Pietrus is also a player I would like to see active here after missing SAT with the stomach flu. Recently GS has been +1 at home to Utah and won as well as +3.5 to Suns but losing on a buzzer beater. So where is SA inrelation to those teams? Well Spurs have been -6 or -7 to NYK , Port , and Tor on the road. All 3 are bottomfeeders while right now GS has proven to be one of the better teams in the league. last nite SEA gave SA a game till they fell to pieces late and were only -4. Clearly GS is better then Sea and love that SA has Utah on deck. They also are playing 34d in 4 nites ...Dallas on Fri , @ Port on Sun and here @ GS.

Spurs have won last 3 in GS and are 3-2 SU last 5 but GS own a 2 and 3 pt loss in this span. SA is 7-0 away and ATS!! I think thats due to the fact they have been undervalued a few times away...dogged twice ...and as I said 3 biggest spreads were to 3 bad teams andthe higgest number was -7. All the trend point to GS here :

GS 6-0-1 ATS last 7 as small home dog
GS 8-1 ATS L9 at home
GS 38-13-3 as home Dog
GS 25-9 ATS off SU off win of 10+
Home team 8-3 ATS

Like the under here but wonder was GS defense vs Utah the balancing act of there effort vs DEN. Think Den shoot 55% the worst GS has allowed and Utah 32% the best GS has allowed.. Spurs only scoring lows 90's in back to backs and GS played well against Utahs big front line. Havent decided yet with alot of over trends but it seems unlikely SA hits a 100...

TEAM TOTALS
Over 99 -104 Miami (2.5x)
Over 96 -108 Philly (1x)
Under 88 -108 Minny (1.5x)
Under 96.5 -110 Dal (2x)
Over 102 -105 Utah (2x)
Over 96 -110 Orl (1x)
Under 100 -108 SA (1.5x)

1stH
Ov 95.5 -108 Miami (2x)
Under 97.5 -123 SA (2x)

NCAAB

Michigan ML -130(3x) 2nd H Mich -2 -125 (3x) Atsur was injured LOSS BOTH

-Basically we have 4 seniors @ Michigan who have failed to live up to expectations versus a NCST looking to rebuild under Sidney Lowe. I hate that this is Michigans 1stroad teast but having 4 senior starters hopefully helps overcome that. Also I dont like some of the Wolfpacks D %'s see Wofford and Gardner Webb from the floor....Both teams struglling from teh FT line but I feel that beside that and home court Mich has all the edges...

Over 151 -109 Wofford (1x) LOSS

Greensboro -4 -110 (5x)WIN 2nd H Greensboro +2 -121 (2x) WIN

-This game will see a ton 3 pt attempts clearly the key is how manythe hit. Wofford allowing 50% from the floor and they havent exactly played anyone outside of Ciny who they beat. Wofford historically has struggled @ Greensboro..

Buffalo +8.5 -110 (8x) WIN ML +288(1x) WIN

- basically you have a Buff team shooting below 40% on the year and playing @ Temple...never a good mix. Gone is Coach Cheaney and enter Fran Dunphy in his 1st game as head coach at home and I know he is putting a significant amount of pressure on himself to win this game. Look at how the man talks about Big 5 basketball...he says he is now the caretaker of Temple bball. Temple has been hit with player losses withCollins gradutaing , Marshall injured and Tynsdale ineligible early at least 6 games. The offense is on Salisbury shoulders and the kid can shot the rock but his shot selction in the past was poor. He really appears to be there lone scorer. Looking for a low scoring grind it out game. Buff has some nice road wins & neutral court wins Iona , Canisus , Miami , Cle State.

Rider +4.5 -110 (3x)WIN ML +188 (1x) WIN/MIDDLE 2nd H ML Drexel -144(3x)LOSS

-Basically the home teams wins this series. Drexel has not played well on the road in recent times and is chalk. Rider played them tight at Drexel last season before fading late...

Under 58 -132 1st h (2x)Loss Under 124 -112 (2x) Gtown WIN

Ball State +9 +101 (2x) Loss ball State +16.5 -110 (2x) WIN

2nd H +6.5 -118(3x)WIN

-Expecting Ball State in the low 50's here and the Hoyas are questionable to cover so I dont think they crack 70. The Thompson brothers square off and with Gtown struggling think its not a blowout. Possibly 2nd H under...

StPeters +11.5 -110 (7x)LOSS

On paper this look strange but this is a big rivalry game. While KeeKee Clark is gone sharp shootin Orta & Sowell remain(new head coach and believe they have SH ties). SH also had some turnover and its tough to get a feel for them early. Really this is a play against SH as big chalk in rivalry game which was decided by 9 last year. Pirates lost Whitney and Copeland as well. Keydren Clark actually played poorly last year in this matchup with 10 turnovers and 23 pts...SPC is 8-2 ATS past 10 meetings...however please note in many years they were 20+ pt dogs and recently low teens...

ULL +12 -109 (3x) WIN

Lets see how Tenny rebounds after MSG...ULL has thebig men to possibly give them trouble lets see...

2nd H

Over 70 -108 Temple (2x) LOSS

George Mason 6 -121 (2x) WIN