Saturday Basketball Thoughts
Poor job by me last nite way to much left on the sidelines thanks to poor judgement.....
Plays ~
Over 214 -110 Seattle @ GS (10x)
Bobcats +8.5 -113 (5x )
Wizards -3-115 (8x)
Minny -3-105 (5x)
Pacers +3.5 +100 (3x) ML +145 (2x)
Miami +3 -108 (5x) ML +133(5x)
Under 197 -110 Clippers (5x)
Over 212 Suns -105 (5x)
Under 192 -110 Dallas (3x)
Under 200 Mil -110 (8x)
Under 187.5 Portland -110 (7x) wait though
Under 195.5 Orlando -110 (3x)
Over 194 +102 Miami (probably 5x should get cheaper) NO PLAY HERE
Under 199 -105 Was (3x)
NCAAB
Marquette 1st H -12 -118 (3x) PUSH
Under 137 -110 Manhattan (3x) 2nd H under 74 -114 (4x)
Toledo -4 -110 (3x)
UMass +12.5 -110 (5x)
Canisus +12 -110 (4x)) Canisus -3-108 (2x)
Alot of plays today which I just dont have time to write about. Though chances are I will be lurking around working on the rest of the NFL . So please if you have a question or need an answer feel free to ask I will do mty best to answer in a timely fashion. GL
Saturday, November 18, 2006
Friday, November 17, 2006
Friday Thoughts -
Plays ~
Under 188 -104 Indiana (5x) L -5.20
Indiana -4.5 -105 (3x) & Indiana -4.5 -110 (3x) L -6.45
Over 193 -105 Boston (4x) W +4.00
Knicks +9 -110 (3x) W +3.00
Wolves +8 -110 (6x) L -6.60
Wiz +5.5 -109 (3x) L -3.27
Grizz +5.5 -105 (3x) ML +200 (1x) L -4.15
Bulls +8.5 -110 (5x) L -3.00
Philly +7.5 -110 (3x)
Raps +8.5 -121 (3x)
Sonics -131 ML (6x)
Under 203.5 -131 Miami (2x) W +2.00
Boston ML -160 (3x)Win
Under 101-108 NYK (1x) Win
Under 94 +102 dallas (2x) Loss
Spurs ML -155 (2.5x) this is to hedge my Bulls 8.5 play Win
Over 107 -105 Seattle (3x)
Thought about middling some of my Minny play and Bulls play but gonna let it ride... Wow Did I fuck up not paying attention to that game in CLE...should have played some Cavs -5.5 2nd H! Poor job by me..... I felt like I was on every sucker play and I had my chances to wiggle out at half but didnt
NCAAB
StJohns +6 -110 (3x) Win
Indiana -14.5 -104 (3x) Loss(blew a 20pt lead)
A&M -14 -105 1st Half (3x) Win
Maryland -5.5 -108 (3x)
Under 76 -108 NM State (3x)
Thoughts -
- NJN @ Ind- the Nets continue to be hit with injuries. The latest is backup PG Marcus Williams who Lawrence Frank called at best questionable tonite. On the Nets off day Nened Kristic went for an MRI on his ailing knee but the results found no damage. Vince should be recovered from the FLU that had him as a game time decision on Tuesday but RJ is still not ready to play. Basically NJ has played Under in its 2 road games and Ind Under in its 3 home games. Last year inthe playoffs these totals were more closer to 180ish. The Pacer offense has struggled for the most part since the opener only topping a 100 @ MSG which as we know is no big accomplishment(sorry Knicks). A little risky playing the fav and the under here since you would expect something along th lines of 94-87 not providing much wiggle room. However NJ has scored only 85 @ Miami and 88 in regulation @ Washington w/0 RJ. This is NJ 4th game in 6 nites which has seen the short handed NJ squad log alot of minutes. If Williams unavailable that leaves a tremendous hole with Antoine Wright already in the starting lineup.
Nets are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win.
Nets are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 Friday games.
Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points
OU Trends
New Jersey
Over is 6-0 in Nets last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Under is 9-2 in Nets last 11 Friday games.
Under is 8-2 in Nets last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 8-2 in Nets last 10 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 7-2 in Nets last 9 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 21-7 in Nets last 28 games as an underdog.
Under is 20-7 in Nets last 27 games as a road underdog.
Over is 8-3 in Nets last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 10-4 in Nets last 14 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 5-2 in Nets last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 5-2 in Nets last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 5-2 in Nets last 7 overall.
Indiana
Under is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Over is 7-2 in Pacers last 9 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Over is 8-3 in Pacers last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Under is 23-9-1 in Pacers last 33 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 11-5 in Pacers last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 Friday games
-Por @ Boston - I do think Boston has greatly improved past few games but I wonder if 7.5 is just a tad to high ..maybe 6 or 6.5 here. Boston has only been afvored once recently athome vs Chalotte by 5.5 who took them to OT and lost by two. Portland is this RARE team that seems to do one of two things away since the start of last year. They either LOSE ATS or WIN SU. Its actually quite odd but the trend continues as Portland won SU in its first away game @ SEA then followed it with 4 SU and ATS losses. The Celtics really played well in both meetings last season vs port but is that saying much? Without Roy the Blazers are looking for a second option to Randolph. I do like the fact LaMarcus Aldridge has been promoted into the starting lineup though. Should be a solid game actually ..Blazers have allowed at least 100 in all 5 road games. The scary part is this GAME is littered with UNDER trends so I might at some point change my mind or middle. I have a score of 101-95...
-NYK @ Miami - Basially Shaq or Not , Jason Williams or not I dont like how Miami has playd this season. It might be a tall order for NY here but this is simply a fade of Miami.
- Minny @ Cle - Larry Hughes is Out and Pavlovic might get the start. Whether he played or not I had to jump on this. Minny has played well in spurts this season and rebounded from a losing tsreak with a nice game against PORT. Last year Minny was able to win SU in Cleveland. While its hard to imagine there are again tremendous Under trends here that might warrant a play on the under or 1st H under.
- Was @ Det - Basically a bad spot to fade DET IMO after losing SU to NO. However they face a Wiz squad that beat them SU all 3 times last year. Which make for even more revenge here. With the way DET has played defense the OVER as it continues to fall warrants a look. What concerns me is how poorly these teams actually shot against eachother in the games @ the Palace.
- Dallas @ Mem- The Mavs have owned Memphis recently and that was with Gasol. Despite a recent turnaround in play Dallas still isnt playing anywhere near previous levels or seasons. Memphis inserted Atkins into the starting lineup for Mighty Mouse and both played well. Gay started for the injured Eddie Jones and he also left the game injured so keep an eye on those 2 injuries. Basically despite all MEM struggles they have played faily decent at home while even PORT recently gave Dallas a scare (away). Looking for a low scoring sloppy game that is decided late.
-Chi @ SA - Again could this be another bad spot with SA off ahome OT loss to Charlotte. chi paying B to B and SA third in 4 days. Suprisingly Bulls have covered last 5 in SA but they have all been Double Digit spreads. Road team dominants ATS going 10-1 and SA 5-17 ATS at home .
- Philly @ pho - Took a shot with Nash injured and questionable and Raja Bell Quesytionable...will update on this game later. Also hope to CWebb get some extended minutes tonite after speaking to Billy King.
- Tor @ LAL - Toronto has struggled on the road going 0-3 SU & ATS and even struggled in LA. However since kobe returned LAL IMO has struggled to a degeree...so basic fade play.
- Utah @ Seattle - Sonics struggled in 1st game back versus Philly after long trip but played well vs Utah last year. Here I think AK-47 is missed (Kirilenko). The Sonics actually smoked UTAH in the last 3 meetings last year. Ridinour , Allen and Lewis playing well on offense and Wilcox cleaning up the garbage.
Plays ~
Under 188 -104 Indiana (5x) L -5.20
Indiana -4.5 -105 (3x) & Indiana -4.5 -110 (3x) L -6.45
Over 193 -105 Boston (4x) W +4.00
Knicks +9 -110 (3x) W +3.00
Wolves +8 -110 (6x) L -6.60
Wiz +5.5 -109 (3x) L -3.27
Grizz +5.5 -105 (3x) ML +200 (1x) L -4.15
Bulls +8.5 -110 (5x) L -3.00
Philly +7.5 -110 (3x)
Raps +8.5 -121 (3x)
Sonics -131 ML (6x)
Under 203.5 -131 Miami (2x) W +2.00
1st Half
Under 92.5 Dallas -107 (2x) Loss
Under 92 +106 Minny (2x)Win
2nd HBoston ML -160 (3x)Win
Under 101-108 NYK (1x) Win
Under 94 +102 dallas (2x) Loss
Spurs ML -155 (2.5x) this is to hedge my Bulls 8.5 play Win
Over 107 -105 Seattle (3x)
Thought about middling some of my Minny play and Bulls play but gonna let it ride... Wow Did I fuck up not paying attention to that game in CLE...should have played some Cavs -5.5 2nd H! Poor job by me..... I felt like I was on every sucker play and I had my chances to wiggle out at half but didnt
NCAAB
StJohns +6 -110 (3x) Win
Indiana -14.5 -104 (3x) Loss(blew a 20pt lead)
A&M -14 -105 1st Half (3x) Win
Maryland -5.5 -108 (3x)
Under 76 -108 NM State (3x)
Thoughts -
- NJN @ Ind- the Nets continue to be hit with injuries. The latest is backup PG Marcus Williams who Lawrence Frank called at best questionable tonite. On the Nets off day Nened Kristic went for an MRI on his ailing knee but the results found no damage. Vince should be recovered from the FLU that had him as a game time decision on Tuesday but RJ is still not ready to play. Basically NJ has played Under in its 2 road games and Ind Under in its 3 home games. Last year inthe playoffs these totals were more closer to 180ish. The Pacer offense has struggled for the most part since the opener only topping a 100 @ MSG which as we know is no big accomplishment(sorry Knicks). A little risky playing the fav and the under here since you would expect something along th lines of 94-87 not providing much wiggle room. However NJ has scored only 85 @ Miami and 88 in regulation @ Washington w/0 RJ. This is NJ 4th game in 6 nites which has seen the short handed NJ squad log alot of minutes. If Williams unavailable that leaves a tremendous hole with Antoine Wright already in the starting lineup.
Nets are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win.
Nets are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 Friday games.
Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points
OU Trends
New Jersey
Over is 6-0 in Nets last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Under is 9-2 in Nets last 11 Friday games.
Under is 8-2 in Nets last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 8-2 in Nets last 10 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 7-2 in Nets last 9 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 21-7 in Nets last 28 games as an underdog.
Under is 20-7 in Nets last 27 games as a road underdog.
Over is 8-3 in Nets last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 10-4 in Nets last 14 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 5-2 in Nets last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 5-2 in Nets last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 5-2 in Nets last 7 overall.
Indiana
Under is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Over is 7-2 in Pacers last 9 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Over is 8-3 in Pacers last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Under is 23-9-1 in Pacers last 33 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 11-5 in Pacers last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 Friday games
-Por @ Boston - I do think Boston has greatly improved past few games but I wonder if 7.5 is just a tad to high ..maybe 6 or 6.5 here. Boston has only been afvored once recently athome vs Chalotte by 5.5 who took them to OT and lost by two. Portland is this RARE team that seems to do one of two things away since the start of last year. They either LOSE ATS or WIN SU. Its actually quite odd but the trend continues as Portland won SU in its first away game @ SEA then followed it with 4 SU and ATS losses. The Celtics really played well in both meetings last season vs port but is that saying much? Without Roy the Blazers are looking for a second option to Randolph. I do like the fact LaMarcus Aldridge has been promoted into the starting lineup though. Should be a solid game actually ..Blazers have allowed at least 100 in all 5 road games. The scary part is this GAME is littered with UNDER trends so I might at some point change my mind or middle. I have a score of 101-95...
-NYK @ Miami - Basially Shaq or Not , Jason Williams or not I dont like how Miami has playd this season. It might be a tall order for NY here but this is simply a fade of Miami.
- Minny @ Cle - Larry Hughes is Out and Pavlovic might get the start. Whether he played or not I had to jump on this. Minny has played well in spurts this season and rebounded from a losing tsreak with a nice game against PORT. Last year Minny was able to win SU in Cleveland. While its hard to imagine there are again tremendous Under trends here that might warrant a play on the under or 1st H under.
- Was @ Det - Basically a bad spot to fade DET IMO after losing SU to NO. However they face a Wiz squad that beat them SU all 3 times last year. Which make for even more revenge here. With the way DET has played defense the OVER as it continues to fall warrants a look. What concerns me is how poorly these teams actually shot against eachother in the games @ the Palace.
- Dallas @ Mem- The Mavs have owned Memphis recently and that was with Gasol. Despite a recent turnaround in play Dallas still isnt playing anywhere near previous levels or seasons. Memphis inserted Atkins into the starting lineup for Mighty Mouse and both played well. Gay started for the injured Eddie Jones and he also left the game injured so keep an eye on those 2 injuries. Basically despite all MEM struggles they have played faily decent at home while even PORT recently gave Dallas a scare (away). Looking for a low scoring sloppy game that is decided late.
-Chi @ SA - Again could this be another bad spot with SA off ahome OT loss to Charlotte. chi paying B to B and SA third in 4 days. Suprisingly Bulls have covered last 5 in SA but they have all been Double Digit spreads. Road team dominants ATS going 10-1 and SA 5-17 ATS at home .
- Philly @ pho - Took a shot with Nash injured and questionable and Raja Bell Quesytionable...will update on this game later. Also hope to CWebb get some extended minutes tonite after speaking to Billy King.
- Tor @ LAL - Toronto has struggled on the road going 0-3 SU & ATS and even struggled in LA. However since kobe returned LAL IMO has struggled to a degeree...so basic fade play.
- Utah @ Seattle - Sonics struggled in 1st game back versus Philly after long trip but played well vs Utah last year. Here I think AK-47 is missed (Kirilenko). The Sonics actually smoked UTAH in the last 3 meetings last year. Ridinour , Allen and Lewis playing well on offense and Wilcox cleaning up the garbage.
Thursday, November 16, 2006
TNT Thursday Nite Basketball
Plays-
Bulls +5 -105 (4x) Win
Warriors -4.5 -110 (4x) Win
Under 203.5 -110 Sac (3x) Loss
2nd H
over 90 -135 Houston (2x) Win
Under 104.5 -124 GS (3x) Win
NCAAB -
Under 145.5 -110 Duke (3x) W
Over 141.5 -105 StJohns (3x) W
Under 140.5 -105 Texas (3x) W
USC -5 -106 (2x) & 1st H -2.5 -112 (2x) Win & Loss (wash)
Mich St +4.5 -105 (2x) ML +180 (1x) Win(lost hedge though)
2nd H
Under 79 +105 GT (1.5x) Loss
Under 75 -123 StJ (1x) Win
Texas ML -140 (2x) hedging out of Mich State play L -2.8
Thoughts-
- In Houston you have to wonder about there mindset after falling apart versus SA. Chi is desperate for a good road performance but losing @ Orlando , Cle and Dallas is nothing to be ashamed of especially when considering they played all games in bad situations maybe today is favorably if HOU has a hangover. They played a winless Dallas team(at home) after they turned the corner on the road , Orlando right after they smoke Miami in the road opener , and Cavs after the home loss in OT to ATL...thought about the over @ 179 but 181 doesnt interest me with these etams. Chi is desperate for a good defensive effort..which scares me..and its still Houston who managed 9 in the 4th Q at home
- I do think GS will be tough to be athome this year like SAC @ Arco. Definetly think GS at home for awhile is an edge to playing B to B(and shorthanded).
Basically I think SAC will continue to be inconsistent offensively and they barely topped 90 once on the road in 3 meetings. For the up and down style GS plays (small ball) only 2 teams have broken a 100 versu sthem at home....Tor and LAL in the opener). Waiting to see what the total does but actually thinking under..
Plays-
Bulls +5 -105 (4x) Win
Warriors -4.5 -110 (4x) Win
Under 203.5 -110 Sac (3x) Loss
2nd H
over 90 -135 Houston (2x) Win
Under 104.5 -124 GS (3x) Win
NCAAB -
Under 145.5 -110 Duke (3x) W
Over 141.5 -105 StJohns (3x) W
Under 140.5 -105 Texas (3x) W
USC -5 -106 (2x) & 1st H -2.5 -112 (2x) Win & Loss (wash)
Mich St +4.5 -105 (2x) ML +180 (1x) Win(lost hedge though)
2nd H
Under 79 +105 GT (1.5x) Loss
Under 75 -123 StJ (1x) Win
Texas ML -140 (2x) hedging out of Mich State play L -2.8
Thoughts-
- In Houston you have to wonder about there mindset after falling apart versus SA. Chi is desperate for a good road performance but losing @ Orlando , Cle and Dallas is nothing to be ashamed of especially when considering they played all games in bad situations maybe today is favorably if HOU has a hangover. They played a winless Dallas team(at home) after they turned the corner on the road , Orlando right after they smoke Miami in the road opener , and Cavs after the home loss in OT to ATL...thought about the over @ 179 but 181 doesnt interest me with these etams. Chi is desperate for a good defensive effort..which scares me..and its still Houston who managed 9 in the 4th Q at home
- I do think GS will be tough to be athome this year like SAC @ Arco. Definetly think GS at home for awhile is an edge to playing B to B(and shorthanded).
Basically I think SAC will continue to be inconsistent offensively and they barely topped 90 once on the road in 3 meetings. For the up and down style GS plays (small ball) only 2 teams have broken a 100 versu sthem at home....Tor and LAL in the opener). Waiting to see what the total does but actually thinking under..
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
NFL Week 11 Thoughts
Plays -
New York Jets +7.5 -120 (8x) ML +270 (1x) Loss
Oakland +10 -111(8x) ML +425 (1/2x) Win
Broncos ML -128 (10x) SD +3 -105 (4x)late hedge cause T.Bell was inactive
Dallas +1.5 -110 (8x) ML +100 (5x) Win
SF +4.5 +100 (5x) ML +210 (1x) Win
Ravens -3-110 (3x) Win
Minny +3.5 -108 (3x) ML +178 (1x) Loss
Browns +4.5 -110 (4x) ML +182 (1x) Win
Rams +7 -115 (5x) Loss
Bills +3 -113 (4x) ML +139 (2x) win
Eagles -12.5 -110 (3x) changed my mind Loss
Cardinals ML -125 (5x) Win
3 strong leans -
TB -3 -105
NO -3.5 ++
NE -5.5
Totals
Over 49 -123 Cincy (5x) & Under 52 -110 (5x)
Over 41 +102 Denver & SD (5x) uND 43 -116 (2X) HEDGE DUE TO t.BELL INACTIVE
Under 17.5 -111 KC 1st Half (3x) Loss
Under 44.5 -110 Philly (3x) Win
Over 43.5 -110 Carolina (3x) Loss
Under 37 -115 Houston (3x) Loss
Under 34 -110 TB (5x) Loss
Under 40-110 Chicago (7x) Win
Team Totals
Under 23 -111 KC 92x) W
Over 23.5 -127 Dallas (2x) L
Under 20.5 -108 Pitt (1x) L
2nd Half -
Under 19 -110 KC (6x) Win
Pitt -3 -115 (1.5x) small hedge Win
Under 20 -105 Hou (2x) changed my mind - NO PLAY
Over 17 -114 Miami (3x) Win
Ravens -3 -115 (2x) Win
Bear -3-108 (3x) hedge Win
Saints -3 -116 (2x) again changed my mind Loss
Pats PK -113 (2x ) No Favre possibly in the 2nd H? Win
Under 20 -120 NE (2x) Win
Over 24 -128 Siants (2x) Win
Eagles -5.5 -106 (3x) Loss
Ov 19.5 -120 SF (2x) Loss
Over 24.5 -124 Indy (5x) Win
Notre dame 1st H -15 -119 (3x) W
NBA
Lakers -2.5 -110 (3x)
Spurs -2 -118 (5x)
Spurs 2nd H ML -128 (5x)
Lean towards both unders...not sure if or how I play it. Waiting till half in LA though for a total ida...
The 1 PM halftime comments-
Well Pats leading 21-0 athalftime is a kick in the balls but I hope they contineu there dominance regardless. Minny cant stop the pass and Big Ben passing to the wrong team (again) but hope that continues. Sainst doing everything humanly possibly to lose with 3 turnovers should have just went into teh half tied but since I am momentum guy I wont play TB or NO 2nd Half due to teh fact they both threw picks rightbefore thehalf taking points off the board.
StL @ Car - Just what should we expect from STL with 2 key injuries. Car looked unimpressive to me versus TB. Basically Car tends to be a bad fav and STL should find ways to score here so I took a shot with +7...scary part is injury to Fisher I think Pace is a loss but not as bad as Fisher
Cincy @ NO- Not sure of Cincy s mindset here after the collapse. Both teams have serious issues on defense which could make the hook valuable . I have looked at this game up and down. The Sainsts as a fav are risky as they failed two in laying -1 versus Balt and failed to cover -3.5 vs TB. The Saints D has struggled since losing Roman Harper @ safety. Out side of that injury though NO comes in relatively healthy. My question is what are the book strying to do with this line? It just seems with the HOOK they are begging youto play Cincy. With Cincy its all about the INJURIES IMO. Already down 3 LBs this year they have 2 on the injury list this week but Brooks is Probable. On the OL Willie Anderson will play but they have lost Brahm, Jones and now Bennie Anderson last week! In the secondary it appears Delthea O'Neal will not play and Dexter Jackson is listed as questionable. Teams have run on NO but Cincy has failed to let Rudi do his thing this year and now with a banged up OL it might not be possible. The Sainst played poorly verus Balt which is a top notch defense see the 2 defensive scores but rebounded and went to TB and smoked them. Then they went head to head , nearly shot for shot @ pitt with a desperate Steelers team and Joe Horn on the sidelines. Truth is I think fundamentally 3.5 is to high but again I think Cincy being dogged at home last week and not covering was a huge sign. Tons of close losses have to take there toll eventually. Basically +3.5 looks like a great value play but I think Cincy could begin to unravel here. How does a sensitive team overcome this? Remember TJ Houszmanzadeh got his bell rung and the week before Chris Henry chicken armed the last pass of the game drawing Palmers ire....think Saints find a way to cover but no play yet (thought about -1.5 -115 NO but Cinc usually falls apart in the 2nd H.)
Buffalo @ Hous- 0 Injuries to Villareal and Macgahee leave question marks though A-Train is fine. Hous lost 3 key players last week and watched there QB get dinged up... After much thought I felt Pinnacle was taking a side here keping HOU at -1 all week when it was 2.5 everywhere else. The Texans are playing well but now after being a DD dog they are a FG fav which takes the value out of them IMO. Remember Buff was favored in DET by 1 pt and lost by 3. The Texans ahve improved and have the Moulds subplot but injuries decimated them in the Jags win. These teams met in BUFF last year with different RBs and Bills won 22-7. Bills played 5 road gmes and only laid an egg @ Chi 2pt loss @ NE , 1 pt loss @ Indy , win @ Miami , FG loss @ Det. My feeling was game should be Bills -1 or PK...Hous would actually have to win 2 in a row to cover and are 5-16 L21 ATS off a SU win...
Wash @ TB- The Skins defense has been a letdown. Now you get Campbell @ QB after being inactive his whole career. A week of pratice does help but how many 1st team reps do you think he received previously. Not to mention first game action , on the road , versus an agreessive and veteran defense. To make matters worse you dont have Portis and Santana Moss is still less then 100% from what I read( Moss is OUT now). TB isnt much better but there D was impressive against CAR and makes me wonder what Skins can do. TB wants revenge for the playoff loss last year and Cadillac needs to get the ball and Gradkowski is very capable IMO. Skins allow 4.2 YPC on the road...hope Gruden sees that as well.. very low scoring tilt
Tenn @ Philly - The Easgles are always a question mark. Tenny however IMO seems to struggle with tough defenses (SD , Dallas , Jax) and explosive offenses. U wonder about Tennys mindset after a couple close losses. The team is greatly improved with Vince @ QB but they still dont do much offensively. What scares me here for Tenny is there injured defensive players who are questionable DE Odom is already OUT and laBoy is questionable( 2 backups are questionable). Robaire Smith is questionable but Haynesworth is active. Reynaldo Hill @ CB is questionable. Very key is Bironas the PK is battling a sore groin. david Givens we never knew ya done for the year. Benji Olson on the OL , you guessed it questionable. With Morningwig calling the plays now expected a more balanced attack which means they actually run the ball(chew clock). The main reason I wont play Philly is the fact they have Indy on deck.
Det @ Ari - Havent flipped the coin yet but Zona seems lost.. Again though Line strength indicates that in similiar situations ARI is the stronger team. An 8 game losing streak makes you desperate and DET is as bad as they come on the road so ARI is the play here versus a weak defense.
Sea @ SF- Again to much hype like in KC for the return of Alexander. The guy probably isnt 100% still and hasnt played in how long? Morris got injured last game as well so wouldnt be suprised to see them share time. Wallace still @ QB didnt do all that much IMO past 2 home games. The 49ers after a big road win continue to not get any respect. Look at how this defense is playing. Look how well the Dorsey and Hicks led SF squad played the real Hawks last year ta home...SF has been tough at home struggling versus explosive offenses which at this point I dont see Sea as qualifying. Gore had a great 1st half but left with an injury in the 2nd H but should be okay here. Thought SEA worst case would be -3...SF should have Vernon Davis and dont look butthey are 4-5 could they make a run @ Seattle here?? Sea last 6 only 3-3 with last minute wins (twice) against STL and 2-2 away barely escaping @ Det and @ STL.
-Indy @ Dallas - Dont be fooled this LINE is not SOFT. Its basically where it should be (PK). Remember that while INDY won they were also FG DOGS @ denver and @ NE. Probably wil wind up playing the home team who seems really motivated to be the ones who stop this undefeated streak. Justhave to work on this game. lets not forget that Indy barely won @NY(twice) and Denver. Have to get a real injury report for Indy still...
Now that I thought about this situation clearly IMO Dallas is the play. First they are motivated to break Indy win streak and spotless season and they have been re-energized by Tony Romo. Again back to the line if you look at the numbers to comparable opponents this season you will see Dallas and Indy actually grade out fairly equal which means HFA would make Dallas a small favorite here. You look at the football side and see Dallas has the running game and WR's to make plays on offense. Defensively they will have to do one thing ...avoid the big pass play which has plagued them. However outside of that I feel DAL D has played exetremely well. Just like in Denver and NE the Colts should have been a DOG here....they arent which creates value in the home team...
~ NE @ GB - The Packers are improving but this is a scary bad spot. You have NE off 2 losses and thats rare. GB has shown us that if they dont make mistakes they can win ball games but we kknew that. Very key here is GB lsoing tauscher on the OL and going with 3 rookie OL!! Very key is how NE for wahtever reason ( the turf @ NE) the PATS have been night and day better on the road. They were also 5.5 pt favs @ NYJ and Buffalo...both teams have shared opponents recently (Min and Buf) and you can see that NE is clearly the stronger team spread wise as they were fav both times and GB dogged both times. GB lack of WR canbe an issue here...if NE secondary was healthy this would be a no brainer for me..... Staying away from cause mt first instinct was GB then I saw the line actually was were it should be at -6. Then Samuel being out further clouds the NE secondary and it simply a pass...
Thoughts -
~ Bears @ NYJ - The Bears in the midst of a tough 3 game road stretch return to the Meadowlands this Sunday. You have to wonder if this takes some of the home field advantage away from NY since Chicago will have a better then normal comfort level now. What has to be kept in midn though is NY is returning from almost what can be called a historic win in NE since the Pats have owned NYJ for so long. Also of note is the Bears have NE on deck next week.
Barlow had his best game as NYJ and this could mean we have a tough tandem of Barlow and Washington going forward. This is quite important in this matchup since the one weakness CHI has shown lately defensively is the ability to stop the run. Gore had 111 yards against them , followed by Ronnie Brown 's 157 , and Tiki's 146. Grossman settled down and without a pass rush played well in the 2nd Half. Part of what NY did @ NE was get to Brady and rush his throws. Hopefully NY is again able to confuse the opposing offense. NY has already played a tight game versus Indy so I dont think it matters who there opponent is at the moment.
Personally CHI as road chalk is still a risky proposition at this point. The Giants were injury riddled this past week and werent exactly a test. Huge home game for the Jets IMO as they attempt to prove the NE game was not a fluke...Only the Jax game was a loss by more then 7 points otherwise they were in those other 3 losses late but couldnt make a play. Bears defense has allowed at least 20 poinst in 3 of 4. While I dont have the numbers I believe the NFC has played poorly against the AFC. Simply put and overreaction with this line to CHI on national TV beating a depleted butNAME franchise in the NYG. Most of the points in recent CHI games have come off turnovers whether its been there offense or the opposing offense with the miscues...so while the OVER looks enticing if they play sound football this should be a 17-14 game... Bears away scored 19 @ GB plus a punt return , 19 @ Minny late TD off a turnover , zero on offense @ Zona before the NYG game. The Under looks very interesting here IMO...
~Oak @ KC- Trent Green returns to action and you have to wonder how much rust he will show. KC has won the past 6 meetings but all close games and by less then 7points. OAK was actually +9.5 & +11 in two of the trips to KC and losing by 4 last year as +3. Last year KC scored with no time on the clock to win though. Basically what I am saying is this is always a great rivalry game. KC has 4 key injuries Waters on the OL and TE Tony Gonzalez both listed as OUT. On defense Wesley @ safety and D. Johnson @ LB are key players who did NOT play last week & appear unlikey to play here. You can also add Tambi Hali to the mix of layers who may not play. The Oakland defense continues to fly under the radar with the Oakland offense struggling and receiving the attention. Hopefully OAK goes with Brooks(they did) as Walter has improved but still makes to many mistakes and he is right the OAK game plan is horrendous. Oak has 5 straight with the opposition scoring 17 or less. To me this is clearly a warm up game for Green and KC with Denver on deck on Thanksgiving. Naturally they are playing to win but I think going in versus a weak opponent they are looking to answer some questions rather then dismantle a struggling team. Really like the UNDER here @ 36 /36.5 would like to play this. What concerns me is this total in recent year shas been in the 50's and even a 60. By the way Green is a walking target IMO.
~ Atl @ Balt - With Vick playing here we have almost a carbon copy of last weeks game in Tenny with Young @ QB. Suddenly the ATL offense is struggling and the defense continues to lose key contributors as Kearney is now out for the season follwoing injuries to Webster and Mathis is the secondary previously. Balt did play @ Tenny w/o Ray Lewis so hopefully he returns but he just had blood drained from his back or something. Teams gaining 2.8 ypc against the Ravens on the ground in Baltimore doesnt bode well for ATL especially with a dinged up OL. One note is ATL is 3-0 ATS as a dog this year. Somewhat scared of Vick in a DOG role and ray Lewis not playing. Along with the line move concerning me . Thankfully I was able to play +4 last nite and buy -3 this morning as th Ravens are -3.5 with ++vig now. Would say the OVER is the play here but waiting till halftime.
~ Pitt @ Cle - Personally I think since Maurice Carthon was fired / resigned this team has grown up. They have always played well enough defensively to keep them in games but they hang all game with SD but couldnt scored TDs instead setting for FG's. They jumped on ATL and cruised. As some Browns fans have pointed out with a young offense they are willing to sit on leads and just get conservative( not to mention 0 , 13 , and 6 last few at home vs Pitt). From what have read last years 41-0 drubbing left a sour taste in the mouthes of CLE players. I wont say revenge but motivated is probably the proper word. Pitt is banged up in the secondary with 3 key players leaving with concussions last week. Pitt was very close to losing that game last week. They have not won a road game (0-4) and worse is Fast Willie Parker and the boyz manage just 58 yd pergame on the road which has been Clevs weakness. The Browns injury list is littered with key players probably pulling a page from NE. One concern is Droughns avaliability since there is not much proven depth at RB. At home Cle has allowed 19 , 15 , 17 and 13 which always makes them a live dog. So pretty sure with Pitt off a less then impressive home game , winless on the road struggling to establish running game which leaves the door open to Big Ben forcing passes, we shall see a BROWNS play here.. really wanted to play the over here but the total has dropped and its appears weather is the reason...37 loooks so juicy but its a pass.
-Minny @ Miami - Historically Miami is a POOR fav. How poor you ask? Well they are 6-18 ATS L24 as chalk and 6-20 ATS L26 at home. Miami is 2-14 ATS L16 at home as a favorite. How bout 1-12 ATS L 13 at home versus teams with a losing record. The Vikes though are 6-19 L25 ATS on grass. However its very key IMO that Minnesota is in the role of DOG after there recent struggles. Miami lost Traylor and Jeno James two key players last week plus Ronnie Brown says he less then 100 playing with a strained groin...Now Minny also has a who's who injury list with chester Taylor , Fred Smoot , Pat Willaims , all word OL Hutchinhson and Birk all apearing on it. Thats why I remain cautious. However one key returnee is Marcus Robinson as I have said in recent weeks he is very important to the offense since he is there deep threat. Basically we have very identical teams here with the difference being that Miami gets to play at home. Now looking at the past data playing at HOME has not been an advantage for them. They lost tough road games @ SF and @ Buff cause the offense couldnt do anything but was able to win @ Wash and @ Seattle cause the offense made enough plays. basically this Miami D has carried them in wins over CHi and KC now with key injuries I think Miami doesnt have the wiggle room to escape here. Lets not forget that Joey Harrington is no stranger to playing against Minnesota. In fact he has 6 career starts versus them and is 0-6!! To his credit he has had a couple of good games againstthem and his DET team was never blown out but he has a 7TD to 12 INT ratio and that is key IMO. He completed 57% of his passes in those games and avg 6.06 yds per attempt..basically average to slightily below average. Clearly Culpepper would have great incentive to play well in this game but sadly he is injured.
~ SD @ Denver- The Cahrgers defense is missing so many key players and WR's Parker and Floyd are questionable. Some stats 4 you :
LT @ Denver
2001 Lost 26-16 14c 75yds
2002 Lost 26-9 14c 48yds
2003 Lost 37-8 8c 29yds
2004 Lost 23-13 22c 60yds
2005 Lost 20-17 19c 52 yds
10 career games just two 100 yd games but did have 220yds in SD once. Has 8 career TDS vs Den but those came in 4 of the 10 games and just two away both in 2005 . With only 1 game his 1st @ Den where he avg 4 yds or better per carry. In LT's 10 career games SD is 3-7 vs Denver and those are the only 3 times SD has managed 20 or more points vs Denver...Gates has also been largely ineffective with just 16c for 164 yds in 4 games but 3 had less then 31 yards receiving. Plummer is 5-1 as a Bronco vs SD..... 248 , 294 and 253 yds vs SD at home with 5tds and 2 Ints. believe Marty is 3-14 as well in Denver going back to his KC days....
Working on the rest.......
Plays -
New York Jets +7.5 -120 (8x) ML +270 (1x) Loss
Oakland +10 -111(8x) ML +425 (1/2x) Win
Broncos ML -128 (10x) SD +3 -105 (4x)late hedge cause T.Bell was inactive
Dallas +1.5 -110 (8x) ML +100 (5x) Win
SF +4.5 +100 (5x) ML +210 (1x) Win
Ravens -3-110 (3x) Win
Minny +3.5 -108 (3x) ML +178 (1x) Loss
Browns +4.5 -110 (4x) ML +182 (1x) Win
Rams +7 -115 (5x) Loss
Bills +3 -113 (4x) ML +139 (2x) win
Eagles -12.5 -110 (3x) changed my mind Loss
Cardinals ML -125 (5x) Win
3 strong leans -
TB -3 -105
NO -3.5 ++
NE -5.5
Totals
Over 49 -123 Cincy (5x) & Under 52 -110 (5x)
Over 41 +102 Denver & SD (5x) uND 43 -116 (2X) HEDGE DUE TO t.BELL INACTIVE
Under 17.5 -111 KC 1st Half (3x) Loss
Under 44.5 -110 Philly (3x) Win
Over 43.5 -110 Carolina (3x) Loss
Under 37 -115 Houston (3x) Loss
Under 34 -110 TB (5x) Loss
Under 40-110 Chicago (7x) Win
Team Totals
Under 23 -111 KC 92x) W
Over 23.5 -127 Dallas (2x) L
Under 20.5 -108 Pitt (1x) L
2nd Half -
Under 19 -110 KC (6x) Win
Pitt -3 -115 (1.5x) small hedge Win
Under 20 -105 Hou (2x) changed my mind - NO PLAY
Over 17 -114 Miami (3x) Win
Ravens -3 -115 (2x) Win
Bear -3-108 (3x) hedge Win
Saints -3 -116 (2x) again changed my mind Loss
Pats PK -113 (2x ) No Favre possibly in the 2nd H? Win
Under 20 -120 NE (2x) Win
Over 24 -128 Siants (2x) Win
Eagles -5.5 -106 (3x) Loss
Ov 19.5 -120 SF (2x) Loss
Over 24.5 -124 Indy (5x) Win
NCAAB
Over 76 Zona 1st H -104 (3x)W
Kansas -15.5 1st H -115(3x)W (layub with 8 secs left to lead by 17!!
Und 142 -116 StL (probably will hedge at half if possible) A&M leads 34-13 @ H...NO HEDGENotre dame 1st H -15 -119 (3x) W
NBA
Lakers -2.5 -110 (3x)
Spurs -2 -118 (5x)
Spurs 2nd H ML -128 (5x)
Lean towards both unders...not sure if or how I play it. Waiting till half in LA though for a total ida...
The 1 PM halftime comments-
Well Pats leading 21-0 athalftime is a kick in the balls but I hope they contineu there dominance regardless. Minny cant stop the pass and Big Ben passing to the wrong team (again) but hope that continues. Sainst doing everything humanly possibly to lose with 3 turnovers should have just went into teh half tied but since I am momentum guy I wont play TB or NO 2nd Half due to teh fact they both threw picks rightbefore thehalf taking points off the board.
StL @ Car - Just what should we expect from STL with 2 key injuries. Car looked unimpressive to me versus TB. Basically Car tends to be a bad fav and STL should find ways to score here so I took a shot with +7...scary part is injury to Fisher I think Pace is a loss but not as bad as Fisher
Cincy @ NO- Not sure of Cincy s mindset here after the collapse. Both teams have serious issues on defense which could make the hook valuable . I have looked at this game up and down. The Sainsts as a fav are risky as they failed two in laying -1 versus Balt and failed to cover -3.5 vs TB. The Saints D has struggled since losing Roman Harper @ safety. Out side of that injury though NO comes in relatively healthy. My question is what are the book strying to do with this line? It just seems with the HOOK they are begging youto play Cincy. With Cincy its all about the INJURIES IMO. Already down 3 LBs this year they have 2 on the injury list this week but Brooks is Probable. On the OL Willie Anderson will play but they have lost Brahm, Jones and now Bennie Anderson last week! In the secondary it appears Delthea O'Neal will not play and Dexter Jackson is listed as questionable. Teams have run on NO but Cincy has failed to let Rudi do his thing this year and now with a banged up OL it might not be possible. The Sainst played poorly verus Balt which is a top notch defense see the 2 defensive scores but rebounded and went to TB and smoked them. Then they went head to head , nearly shot for shot @ pitt with a desperate Steelers team and Joe Horn on the sidelines. Truth is I think fundamentally 3.5 is to high but again I think Cincy being dogged at home last week and not covering was a huge sign. Tons of close losses have to take there toll eventually. Basically +3.5 looks like a great value play but I think Cincy could begin to unravel here. How does a sensitive team overcome this? Remember TJ Houszmanzadeh got his bell rung and the week before Chris Henry chicken armed the last pass of the game drawing Palmers ire....think Saints find a way to cover but no play yet (thought about -1.5 -115 NO but Cinc usually falls apart in the 2nd H.)
Buffalo @ Hous- 0 Injuries to Villareal and Macgahee leave question marks though A-Train is fine. Hous lost 3 key players last week and watched there QB get dinged up... After much thought I felt Pinnacle was taking a side here keping HOU at -1 all week when it was 2.5 everywhere else. The Texans are playing well but now after being a DD dog they are a FG fav which takes the value out of them IMO. Remember Buff was favored in DET by 1 pt and lost by 3. The Texans ahve improved and have the Moulds subplot but injuries decimated them in the Jags win. These teams met in BUFF last year with different RBs and Bills won 22-7. Bills played 5 road gmes and only laid an egg @ Chi 2pt loss @ NE , 1 pt loss @ Indy , win @ Miami , FG loss @ Det. My feeling was game should be Bills -1 or PK...Hous would actually have to win 2 in a row to cover and are 5-16 L21 ATS off a SU win...
Wash @ TB- The Skins defense has been a letdown. Now you get Campbell @ QB after being inactive his whole career. A week of pratice does help but how many 1st team reps do you think he received previously. Not to mention first game action , on the road , versus an agreessive and veteran defense. To make matters worse you dont have Portis and Santana Moss is still less then 100% from what I read( Moss is OUT now). TB isnt much better but there D was impressive against CAR and makes me wonder what Skins can do. TB wants revenge for the playoff loss last year and Cadillac needs to get the ball and Gradkowski is very capable IMO. Skins allow 4.2 YPC on the road...hope Gruden sees that as well.. very low scoring tilt
Tenn @ Philly - The Easgles are always a question mark. Tenny however IMO seems to struggle with tough defenses (SD , Dallas , Jax) and explosive offenses. U wonder about Tennys mindset after a couple close losses. The team is greatly improved with Vince @ QB but they still dont do much offensively. What scares me here for Tenny is there injured defensive players who are questionable DE Odom is already OUT and laBoy is questionable( 2 backups are questionable). Robaire Smith is questionable but Haynesworth is active. Reynaldo Hill @ CB is questionable. Very key is Bironas the PK is battling a sore groin. david Givens we never knew ya done for the year. Benji Olson on the OL , you guessed it questionable. With Morningwig calling the plays now expected a more balanced attack which means they actually run the ball(chew clock). The main reason I wont play Philly is the fact they have Indy on deck.
Det @ Ari - Havent flipped the coin yet but Zona seems lost.. Again though Line strength indicates that in similiar situations ARI is the stronger team. An 8 game losing streak makes you desperate and DET is as bad as they come on the road so ARI is the play here versus a weak defense.
Sea @ SF- Again to much hype like in KC for the return of Alexander. The guy probably isnt 100% still and hasnt played in how long? Morris got injured last game as well so wouldnt be suprised to see them share time. Wallace still @ QB didnt do all that much IMO past 2 home games. The 49ers after a big road win continue to not get any respect. Look at how this defense is playing. Look how well the Dorsey and Hicks led SF squad played the real Hawks last year ta home...SF has been tough at home struggling versus explosive offenses which at this point I dont see Sea as qualifying. Gore had a great 1st half but left with an injury in the 2nd H but should be okay here. Thought SEA worst case would be -3...SF should have Vernon Davis and dont look butthey are 4-5 could they make a run @ Seattle here?? Sea last 6 only 3-3 with last minute wins (twice) against STL and 2-2 away barely escaping @ Det and @ STL.
-Indy @ Dallas - Dont be fooled this LINE is not SOFT. Its basically where it should be (PK). Remember that while INDY won they were also FG DOGS @ denver and @ NE. Probably wil wind up playing the home team who seems really motivated to be the ones who stop this undefeated streak. Justhave to work on this game. lets not forget that Indy barely won @NY(twice) and Denver. Have to get a real injury report for Indy still...
Now that I thought about this situation clearly IMO Dallas is the play. First they are motivated to break Indy win streak and spotless season and they have been re-energized by Tony Romo. Again back to the line if you look at the numbers to comparable opponents this season you will see Dallas and Indy actually grade out fairly equal which means HFA would make Dallas a small favorite here. You look at the football side and see Dallas has the running game and WR's to make plays on offense. Defensively they will have to do one thing ...avoid the big pass play which has plagued them. However outside of that I feel DAL D has played exetremely well. Just like in Denver and NE the Colts should have been a DOG here....they arent which creates value in the home team...
~ NE @ GB - The Packers are improving but this is a scary bad spot. You have NE off 2 losses and thats rare. GB has shown us that if they dont make mistakes they can win ball games but we kknew that. Very key here is GB lsoing tauscher on the OL and going with 3 rookie OL!! Very key is how NE for wahtever reason ( the turf @ NE) the PATS have been night and day better on the road. They were also 5.5 pt favs @ NYJ and Buffalo...both teams have shared opponents recently (Min and Buf) and you can see that NE is clearly the stronger team spread wise as they were fav both times and GB dogged both times. GB lack of WR canbe an issue here...if NE secondary was healthy this would be a no brainer for me..... Staying away from cause mt first instinct was GB then I saw the line actually was were it should be at -6. Then Samuel being out further clouds the NE secondary and it simply a pass...
Thoughts -
~ Bears @ NYJ - The Bears in the midst of a tough 3 game road stretch return to the Meadowlands this Sunday. You have to wonder if this takes some of the home field advantage away from NY since Chicago will have a better then normal comfort level now. What has to be kept in midn though is NY is returning from almost what can be called a historic win in NE since the Pats have owned NYJ for so long. Also of note is the Bears have NE on deck next week.
Barlow had his best game as NYJ and this could mean we have a tough tandem of Barlow and Washington going forward. This is quite important in this matchup since the one weakness CHI has shown lately defensively is the ability to stop the run. Gore had 111 yards against them , followed by Ronnie Brown 's 157 , and Tiki's 146. Grossman settled down and without a pass rush played well in the 2nd Half. Part of what NY did @ NE was get to Brady and rush his throws. Hopefully NY is again able to confuse the opposing offense. NY has already played a tight game versus Indy so I dont think it matters who there opponent is at the moment.
Personally CHI as road chalk is still a risky proposition at this point. The Giants were injury riddled this past week and werent exactly a test. Huge home game for the Jets IMO as they attempt to prove the NE game was not a fluke...Only the Jax game was a loss by more then 7 points otherwise they were in those other 3 losses late but couldnt make a play. Bears defense has allowed at least 20 poinst in 3 of 4. While I dont have the numbers I believe the NFC has played poorly against the AFC. Simply put and overreaction with this line to CHI on national TV beating a depleted butNAME franchise in the NYG. Most of the points in recent CHI games have come off turnovers whether its been there offense or the opposing offense with the miscues...so while the OVER looks enticing if they play sound football this should be a 17-14 game... Bears away scored 19 @ GB plus a punt return , 19 @ Minny late TD off a turnover , zero on offense @ Zona before the NYG game. The Under looks very interesting here IMO...
~Oak @ KC- Trent Green returns to action and you have to wonder how much rust he will show. KC has won the past 6 meetings but all close games and by less then 7points. OAK was actually +9.5 & +11 in two of the trips to KC and losing by 4 last year as +3. Last year KC scored with no time on the clock to win though. Basically what I am saying is this is always a great rivalry game. KC has 4 key injuries Waters on the OL and TE Tony Gonzalez both listed as OUT. On defense Wesley @ safety and D. Johnson @ LB are key players who did NOT play last week & appear unlikey to play here. You can also add Tambi Hali to the mix of layers who may not play. The Oakland defense continues to fly under the radar with the Oakland offense struggling and receiving the attention. Hopefully OAK goes with Brooks(they did) as Walter has improved but still makes to many mistakes and he is right the OAK game plan is horrendous. Oak has 5 straight with the opposition scoring 17 or less. To me this is clearly a warm up game for Green and KC with Denver on deck on Thanksgiving. Naturally they are playing to win but I think going in versus a weak opponent they are looking to answer some questions rather then dismantle a struggling team. Really like the UNDER here @ 36 /36.5 would like to play this. What concerns me is this total in recent year shas been in the 50's and even a 60. By the way Green is a walking target IMO.
~ Atl @ Balt - With Vick playing here we have almost a carbon copy of last weeks game in Tenny with Young @ QB. Suddenly the ATL offense is struggling and the defense continues to lose key contributors as Kearney is now out for the season follwoing injuries to Webster and Mathis is the secondary previously. Balt did play @ Tenny w/o Ray Lewis so hopefully he returns but he just had blood drained from his back or something. Teams gaining 2.8 ypc against the Ravens on the ground in Baltimore doesnt bode well for ATL especially with a dinged up OL. One note is ATL is 3-0 ATS as a dog this year. Somewhat scared of Vick in a DOG role and ray Lewis not playing. Along with the line move concerning me . Thankfully I was able to play +4 last nite and buy -3 this morning as th Ravens are -3.5 with ++vig now. Would say the OVER is the play here but waiting till halftime.
~ Pitt @ Cle - Personally I think since Maurice Carthon was fired / resigned this team has grown up. They have always played well enough defensively to keep them in games but they hang all game with SD but couldnt scored TDs instead setting for FG's. They jumped on ATL and cruised. As some Browns fans have pointed out with a young offense they are willing to sit on leads and just get conservative( not to mention 0 , 13 , and 6 last few at home vs Pitt). From what have read last years 41-0 drubbing left a sour taste in the mouthes of CLE players. I wont say revenge but motivated is probably the proper word. Pitt is banged up in the secondary with 3 key players leaving with concussions last week. Pitt was very close to losing that game last week. They have not won a road game (0-4) and worse is Fast Willie Parker and the boyz manage just 58 yd pergame on the road which has been Clevs weakness. The Browns injury list is littered with key players probably pulling a page from NE. One concern is Droughns avaliability since there is not much proven depth at RB. At home Cle has allowed 19 , 15 , 17 and 13 which always makes them a live dog. So pretty sure with Pitt off a less then impressive home game , winless on the road struggling to establish running game which leaves the door open to Big Ben forcing passes, we shall see a BROWNS play here.. really wanted to play the over here but the total has dropped and its appears weather is the reason...37 loooks so juicy but its a pass.
-Minny @ Miami - Historically Miami is a POOR fav. How poor you ask? Well they are 6-18 ATS L24 as chalk and 6-20 ATS L26 at home. Miami is 2-14 ATS L16 at home as a favorite. How bout 1-12 ATS L 13 at home versus teams with a losing record. The Vikes though are 6-19 L25 ATS on grass. However its very key IMO that Minnesota is in the role of DOG after there recent struggles. Miami lost Traylor and Jeno James two key players last week plus Ronnie Brown says he less then 100 playing with a strained groin...Now Minny also has a who's who injury list with chester Taylor , Fred Smoot , Pat Willaims , all word OL Hutchinhson and Birk all apearing on it. Thats why I remain cautious. However one key returnee is Marcus Robinson as I have said in recent weeks he is very important to the offense since he is there deep threat. Basically we have very identical teams here with the difference being that Miami gets to play at home. Now looking at the past data playing at HOME has not been an advantage for them. They lost tough road games @ SF and @ Buff cause the offense couldnt do anything but was able to win @ Wash and @ Seattle cause the offense made enough plays. basically this Miami D has carried them in wins over CHi and KC now with key injuries I think Miami doesnt have the wiggle room to escape here. Lets not forget that Joey Harrington is no stranger to playing against Minnesota. In fact he has 6 career starts versus them and is 0-6!! To his credit he has had a couple of good games againstthem and his DET team was never blown out but he has a 7TD to 12 INT ratio and that is key IMO. He completed 57% of his passes in those games and avg 6.06 yds per attempt..basically average to slightily below average. Clearly Culpepper would have great incentive to play well in this game but sadly he is injured.
~ SD @ Denver- The Cahrgers defense is missing so many key players and WR's Parker and Floyd are questionable. Some stats 4 you :
LT @ Denver
2001 Lost 26-16 14c 75yds
2002 Lost 26-9 14c 48yds
2003 Lost 37-8 8c 29yds
2004 Lost 23-13 22c 60yds
2005 Lost 20-17 19c 52 yds
10 career games just two 100 yd games but did have 220yds in SD once. Has 8 career TDS vs Den but those came in 4 of the 10 games and just two away both in 2005 . With only 1 game his 1st @ Den where he avg 4 yds or better per carry. In LT's 10 career games SD is 3-7 vs Denver and those are the only 3 times SD has managed 20 or more points vs Denver...Gates has also been largely ineffective with just 16c for 164 yds in 4 games but 3 had less then 31 yards receiving. Plummer is 5-1 as a Bronco vs SD..... 248 , 294 and 253 yds vs SD at home with 5tds and 2 Ints. believe Marty is 3-14 as well in Denver going back to his KC days....
Working on the rest.......
NBA Thoughts on Wednesday Nov . 15th
Plays ~
Cavs -11.5 -110 (4x) WIN
Under 105 -108 1st Half Orlando (4x) WIN
Under 194 -110 Indiana (5x) LOSS
Under 197.5 -105 NJN (3x) WIN
Knicks +3.5 -110 (3x) +135 ML (1x) WIN(s)
Under 189 -110 Det (5x) LOSS
Pistons -7.5 -111 (3x) LOSS
Spurs -11.5 -108 (3x) Spurs -11 -110 (1x)LOSS
Under 188.5 Spurs (7x) WIN
Kings -8 -110 (5x)
Philly +4.5 -105 (5x) ML +175 (1.5x)
ML Parlay (6x) pays 6.13 Loss
Kings -385 , SPurs -900 , Pistons -340 , Cavs -865
1st halfs-
Over 90.5 -122 Cavs (1.5x) Win
Over 103.5 Wiz -118 (1.5x) Loss
Det -4 -113 (1.5x) Loss
2nd half
Magic ML -205 (2x) WIN
-Have this game middle Orl -3 and Nuggets +5.5 as well....
Over 106.5 -114 Wiz (1x) LOSS
Boston ML +114 (2x) WIN
Under 99 -111 NJ (2x) WIN
Det -8 -105 (1x) WIN
Over 94 -115 SA (3x) WIN
-hate the way the 1st H ended way to much offense
Under 91 -102 Sac(2x)
NCAAB -(real slow start this season)
Vandy -1 -111 (4x) Loss
BYU +12.5 -110 (3x)
Team Totals
Comments to follow..
Portland @ Cleveland - The Cavs have owned portland last few meetings. Right now the offense in Portland is Zach Randolph there really isnt much of a second option. This leds to alot of teams pulling away in the 2nd Half. Cavs righted the ship in NY after a sloppy game vs Boston. Although CLE has been up and down this year you would expect a better effort and focus after the last home game here. Blazers played in Minny last nite and were blown out from the start. Damon Jones finally got on track in NY and hopefully that continues. Who will cover King James? Thinking 105 -90 game. Cavs must hit there FT's!!
Denver @ Orl - With all the talk on ORL even I saw value last nite when it was -3 -110. After playing it I figured we see -3.5 maybe -4 but no way -5. Really shows how FLAT DENVER is expected to be . To be honest I like ORL to win but would NEVER lay this spread so I will middle my -3 with +5.5. Orla wants to play half court basketball and while they have scored alot at home how long can they shot 54 %? They dont even average 70 shots per game at home. Denver is Anthony and some inconsistent players on offense in JR Smith , AndreMiller , Lil Earl Boykins and Marcus Camby. Just expect a much slower pace then expected cause thats ORL style.
Ind @ Bos - Had liked BOS cause of how well they play vs IND at home winning 7 of 10. Now this is the highest total in 10 meetings bewteen teh clubs many which played UNDER . Underdog is 12-2 ATS and UNDER is 9-3 past 12 meetings.
Milw @ NJN - I really want to play NJ here who is playing 4th in 6 nites against Bucks on b to b. Villaneuva is OUT and this team lacks depth to begin with especially offensively. With RJ out the NJ defense suffered vs Seattle. Would love to take NJ here but hate fading teams missing stars only means more shots for Redd....
Wash @ NYK- Wiz dont play much defense and NY doesnt either. How NY is the dog. Wiz could light it up from 3 point land since NY cant seem to defend the long ball. However WAS does lack a post presence and this should be extremely helpful to NYK defensively. I think they finally get that home win here. There bench is playing very well it just need Marbury to come out of his shell which Steve Francis supposely spoke to Starbury about.
NO @ Det - Peja get sback on the court quickly after his career performance. I am sure that makes him hapy. However with West OUT the offense doesnt have much to speak of especially playing in DET....and Chandler is also out
Char @ SA - I think Bobcats struggle to score here. Its well known how poor SA is ATS on back to backs but thats why this line is only -12 IMO. SA has handled Charlotte in the past and both are off back to backs. This has 99-84 written on it
Memphis @ Sac - Right now grizz hitting just 39% away from the field and Sac allwoing slightly better then 40%! Hard to believe Memphis can crack 85 points and tehy have been handled there last 2 road games until they forged huge 4th quarter comebacks...
Philly @ Seattle - The Sonics defied odds winning ATS in all 5 games on a East Coast trip. They have just the 1 day off from that week long trip and have been a busy team. Phillyhasnt played since Sunday and has a history of playing well in Seattle going 5-0 ATS and 401 SU last 5 years. Think this is a tough spot for Seattle and Philly being rested certainly helps.
Plays ~
Cavs -11.5 -110 (4x) WIN
Under 105 -108 1st Half Orlando (4x) WIN
Under 194 -110 Indiana (5x) LOSS
Under 197.5 -105 NJN (3x) WIN
Knicks +3.5 -110 (3x) +135 ML (1x) WIN(s)
Under 189 -110 Det (5x) LOSS
Pistons -7.5 -111 (3x) LOSS
Spurs -11.5 -108 (3x) Spurs -11 -110 (1x)LOSS
Under 188.5 Spurs (7x) WIN
Kings -8 -110 (5x)
Philly +4.5 -105 (5x) ML +175 (1.5x)
ML Parlay (6x) pays 6.13 Loss
Kings -385 , SPurs -900 , Pistons -340 , Cavs -865
1st halfs-
Over 90.5 -122 Cavs (1.5x) Win
Over 103.5 Wiz -118 (1.5x) Loss
Det -4 -113 (1.5x) Loss
2nd half
Magic ML -205 (2x) WIN
-Have this game middle Orl -3 and Nuggets +5.5 as well....
Over 106.5 -114 Wiz (1x) LOSS
Boston ML +114 (2x) WIN
Under 99 -111 NJ (2x) WIN
Det -8 -105 (1x) WIN
Over 94 -115 SA (3x) WIN
-hate the way the 1st H ended way to much offense
Under 91 -102 Sac(2x)
NCAAB -(real slow start this season)
Vandy -1 -111 (4x) Loss
BYU +12.5 -110 (3x)
Team Totals
NYK over 104.5 -115 (2x)Loss
Philly over 102.5 -112 (2.5x)
Under 88 -104 Char (1x) Loss
Over 99.5 -118 cavs (1x)Win
Under 90 -105 NO (1x)Loss
Over 93 -108 Kings (1x) Win
Under 84.5 Mem -109(1x) Loss
Comments to follow..
Portland @ Cleveland - The Cavs have owned portland last few meetings. Right now the offense in Portland is Zach Randolph there really isnt much of a second option. This leds to alot of teams pulling away in the 2nd Half. Cavs righted the ship in NY after a sloppy game vs Boston. Although CLE has been up and down this year you would expect a better effort and focus after the last home game here. Blazers played in Minny last nite and were blown out from the start. Damon Jones finally got on track in NY and hopefully that continues. Who will cover King James? Thinking 105 -90 game. Cavs must hit there FT's!!
Denver @ Orl - With all the talk on ORL even I saw value last nite when it was -3 -110. After playing it I figured we see -3.5 maybe -4 but no way -5. Really shows how FLAT DENVER is expected to be . To be honest I like ORL to win but would NEVER lay this spread so I will middle my -3 with +5.5. Orla wants to play half court basketball and while they have scored alot at home how long can they shot 54 %? They dont even average 70 shots per game at home. Denver is Anthony and some inconsistent players on offense in JR Smith , AndreMiller , Lil Earl Boykins and Marcus Camby. Just expect a much slower pace then expected cause thats ORL style.
Ind @ Bos - Had liked BOS cause of how well they play vs IND at home winning 7 of 10. Now this is the highest total in 10 meetings bewteen teh clubs many which played UNDER . Underdog is 12-2 ATS and UNDER is 9-3 past 12 meetings.
Milw @ NJN - I really want to play NJ here who is playing 4th in 6 nites against Bucks on b to b. Villaneuva is OUT and this team lacks depth to begin with especially offensively. With RJ out the NJ defense suffered vs Seattle. Would love to take NJ here but hate fading teams missing stars only means more shots for Redd....
Wash @ NYK- Wiz dont play much defense and NY doesnt either. How NY is the dog. Wiz could light it up from 3 point land since NY cant seem to defend the long ball. However WAS does lack a post presence and this should be extremely helpful to NYK defensively. I think they finally get that home win here. There bench is playing very well it just need Marbury to come out of his shell which Steve Francis supposely spoke to Starbury about.
NO @ Det - Peja get sback on the court quickly after his career performance. I am sure that makes him hapy. However with West OUT the offense doesnt have much to speak of especially playing in DET....and Chandler is also out
Char @ SA - I think Bobcats struggle to score here. Its well known how poor SA is ATS on back to backs but thats why this line is only -12 IMO. SA has handled Charlotte in the past and both are off back to backs. This has 99-84 written on it
Memphis @ Sac - Right now grizz hitting just 39% away from the field and Sac allwoing slightly better then 40%! Hard to believe Memphis can crack 85 points and tehy have been handled there last 2 road games until they forged huge 4th quarter comebacks...
Philly @ Seattle - The Sonics defied odds winning ATS in all 5 games on a East Coast trip. They have just the 1 day off from that week long trip and have been a busy team. Phillyhasnt played since Sunday and has a history of playing well in Seattle going 5-0 ATS and 401 SU last 5 years. Think this is a tough spot for Seattle and Philly being rested certainly helps.
College Foootball This Week
Plays ~ (2-0 +9.80 on wed)
Thursday
Akron +6 -108 (3x) L
Under 52 -110 Pitt (2x) Loss (weather is not an issue why line bounced back to 53)
Under 28.5 -116 2ndH (2x) , Pitt +7.5 -130 (2x) ML +280 (1x)
Friday
Northern Ill +3.5 -106 (5x) ML +150 (1x) Over 48 -109 (3x)
Saturday (Noon)
Boston College -6.5 -120 (6x) Win
Iowa +3.5 -117 (3x) Loss
North Carolina +5 -109 (5x) ML +180 (1x) Win (s)
Over 39 -112 Syracuse (5x) Loss
Cuse ML -105 (2x) Win
Baylor +21 -110 (1x) Loss
Over 46 -105 Wisky (3x) Loss
Buff +38.5 -105 (2x) Win
Over 57 -105 Purdue (4x) Loss
Purdue -12 -108 (4x) Loss
Over 44 -104 South Carolina (2x) Win
Over 53.5 Navy -110 (5x) Loss
Navy 1st H -17.5 -113 (2x) Win
ML Parlay Auburn-127 and Miami ML -161 (3x) Loss
Halftime Notes :
Unfortunately I decided to not play the Overs in Minnesota and Kentucky or Mich State all whic looke good early.
2nd H
Cuse PK -113 (2.5x) Win
Purdue -4 -121 (2x) Win
Penn State -9 -111 (2x) Win
1Pm
Northwestern +3 -115 (5x) ML +128 (2x) Win (s)
2Pm
Florida State -16 -105 (6x) & Under 44 -109 (3x) Losses
Tulane -1-105 (3x) PUSH
over 68 -105 Tex Tech (5x) Loss
Army +29.5 -110 (3x) Loss
Ov 53.5 -105 Army (3x) Loss
Miss State +14.5 -110 (5x) ML +496 (1/2x) Win
Iowa State either +14 or +14.5 (3x) Win
2nd H
Under 23.5 -105 FSU (2x) Loss
3Pm
Rice +3 -115 (3x) ML +118 (1x) Win (s)
3:30 Pm
Leans -
USF +17 -102
Miami ML -155
Vandy +9.5 -111 (played 5x) but will probably middle with Ainge back.
SMU +6 / Ov 49.5
Utah ML
Team Totals -
Under 13.5 West Mich -108 (1x)
Over 19.5 -116 Iowa State (1x)
Over 35.5 -108 Purdue (1x)
Over 11.5 Temple -108 (1x)
Over 19.5 -116 Miami (2x)
Thoughts~
-Miami-Ohio @ BG - Looks like bad weather so while I like the OVER here I will pass for now. Give the edge to BG but just not crazy about this game.
-Akron @ OhioU - This is a tough game but felt it should have been a FG. Two solid defenses but Akron gets the edge offensively and has played some tough road games despite the poor road record. Akrons weakness defensively has been the pass and Ohio U probably cant exploit that.
-WVU @ Pitt - Would lean towards WV here but after Pitt lost @ UConn I have no idea what there mindset is. I think WVU has scored ta least 34 on everyone except ECU so look for that to continue even against a Pitt D that has played well. Pitt should be able to throw on WVU as did Louisville & Brohm. So hoping the total continue sto slide to around 51 where I will play the OVER. Last minute change due to weather concerns and the fact the BOOKS adjusted the total lower I played the Under here. Its my experience that when totals are adjusted for weather or injury you follow the move.
-EMU @ Kent- would probably entertain the over but really no reason to touch this game.
-Cent Mich @ North Ill - I would agree that CMU is the best team in the conference but that doesnt mean they deserve to be road chalk here. A disappointing season for NI sees its QB and RB Horvath and Wolfe playing there LAST HOME game. Think last time CMU won in this series was 1997. CMU on the road has only defeated bad teams like Toledo , Temple and EMU in OT. They made a game out of the shootout at Kentucky but also trailed 21-0 and 28-7 at times. I expect another high scoring game here. While I disagree Dr.Bob has made CMU a strong play and pushe dthe line to 4.
Saturday-
- Maryland @ BC - A string of tough games and narrow wins for Maryland has to have taken a toll as well as overvalued them. Offensively I dont see much from Maryland and this is a BC defense that has allowed 10 pts TOTAL at home in its last 4 games vs Duke , Maine , Buffalo and VaTech. From a defensive standpoint I dont see much from Maryland either that I like. Lets face it Miami ,FSU and Clemson are struggling offenses and this BC offense played well in Maryland last year so what has change? Dr.Bob has pushe dthis line to 8. Well basically I havent seen enough from teh Terp D this year to think they can slow BC or keep them under 24 points. Hollenbach has done a great job protecting the ball but will need to make some plays here. Bey had 2 long TDs last week and I am sure BC has noticed..
- Iowa @ Minny - Simply thought process here...Iowa 10-1 L11 ATS versus Minny and have the better defense. Iowa lost at home thanks to dropped passes. Can they fix that? We shall see..
- NCST @ UNC - Rivalary game where NC has won the past two. Wolfpack despite there last game have not played well on the road. UNC threw some costly picks last 2 weeks but also were position to beat both GT and Wake.
- Syracuse at home can move the ball alot better then it does away and UConns defense is below average and young. With DJ Hernandez at QB the Huskie offense can move the ball consistently even against a decent defense like Cuse. The young RB Brown looks like a stud in the making. Would think about Cuse here after a young Huskie team upset Pitt at home and is now traveling.
- Mich State @ Penn State - would think about the Spartans if Stanton started.
-Oklahoma @ baylor - Sooners are banged up but no interest in laying 20 even against Baylor.Though it be worth a shot on the dog with the OU injuries and possibly look ahead to Ok State the following week. Only crap road game for OU this year...
- Miami @ UVA- Thinking about the Canes here but HATE that UVA is off a road shutout.
-Buffalo @ Wisky - Last home game(and game) for the Badgers so while they might letdown due to a soft opponent and huge win in Iowa they should at least score. Waiting to see if I can do better then 38..thinking 42-10.
- Indiana @ Purdue - The Hoosiers are awful against the PASS and the Purdue passing atatck appears to have gotten on track. Most think Indiana can make this game but I am not sure and we know Dr.Bob has oushed this line to -12...
-Temple @ Navy - Especially on the road the OWLS cannot stop anyone and a gimmick offense might cause even more struggles. Navy has made huge strides last 2 weeks offensively and look for that to continue. Temple always seeems good for some late scores..
-Mid Tenn @ South Car - Type of game Spurrier NEEDS to destroy his opponent. So its SC here or pass IMO. Wins makes SC 6-5 with Clemson on deck. One thinsg for sure looking at the OVER as it appears it will slide some...
- Tenny @ Vandy - Initially played vandy +9.5 -111 but appears Ainge will start so I willprobably get off this game...
-Ill @ Northwestern- just think Illini as a fav is a fade 0-4 SU and ATS as chalk. Northwestern has played much better with Bachar at QB and if not for some early mistakes they could have gave Ohio State some headaches. They turned it over early and that was there death sentence.
-UL Monroe @ Kentucky- Have to like Kentuckyhere cause of there explosive offense but there defense leaves alot to be desired. So for that I am entertaining the over thinking we should do at least 42-14...
-Duke @ GT - who cares
-WMU @ FSU - WMU has struggled offensively on the road outside of Ball State and this FSU defense will be its toughest test. FSU should be looking to bounce back after being SHUTOUT at home and having Jeff Bowden resign as offensive coordinator. They should not be worried about FLA next week and a win pits them at 6-5.
- Mizzou @ Iowa State - simply cant take Iowa State + anything but cant lay 2 TDS on the road with Mizzou either.
- UCF @ Tulane - Without Kenny Smith I dont like UCF at at all... that leaves only Moffett or Israel. Ricard has good numbers (despite teh recnt benching)and UCF pass defense has so many mental lapses.
- Ok State @ Tech - Should be an offensive explosion. Ok State has allowed at least 30 points in all it sroad games and we know Tech can score. Ok State has the same offensive explosiveness whethere home or away.. Ok St allows 9.3 YPA through the air away and Tech 7.8 at home (8.3 L3 games )
- Houston @ Memphis - Th e tigers cannot stop anyone and expect 38 at least from Houston but with thetotal now at 60 its a no play..
- Army @ ND - Thinking over 54 but what scares me is ND keeping it vanilla versus Army with USC on deck. Still hard to imagine ND scores less then 38 here... Look ahead game cleary and took the points (late) and again a Dr.Bob play.....as he cites ND inability to cover big spreads under Weis
-Ark @ Miss State - Great sandwich spot for the Hogs. Huge home win vs Tenn with LSU on deck. Bulldogs off a bye and a win @ Bama...
-Utah St @ Boise - Johnson collapsed lung meansno interest
- ECU @ Rice - Almost have to ride a hot RICE squad here as a dog. A winless rice tam last season played well @ ECU...over 55 ??
- Tulsa @ SMU - looking @ SMU especially if I can get 7. They played a solid game versus Houston last week but collapsed late.
- Mich @ Ohio State - Have this line pegged at -7.5 so seeing which it moves before I act. think we see this -7 turn into -6 but only a guess...-6 I play the Buckeyes...
- Zona @ Oregon - Even a solid defense like the Wildcats will struggle to keep Oregon under 30 poinst at home especially after a loss. Tuitama actually gives Zona a QB.....
- Kan State @ Kansas- the jayhawks have played well at home only losing 4th Q meltdowns to A&M and Okie State while KSU is off the HUGE UPSET at home versus Texas. Young team tends to letdown after a big home win they travel the follwoing week.
- SDST @ TCU - While TCU defense is top notched the offene has been less then impressive. WIth SD showing improvement in recent weeks I thought this was closer to -14 then 17 or 18 pts....
- NM @ BYU - ALways a tight gameI think BYU finally gets inflated here. Have this at more like -21 but the concern is Porterie's health as he has sparked this team.
_ Wyoming @ UNLV - The Rebels palyed better then the boxscore indicates last week. Wyoming just doesnt show much offensively to think they can cruise over an opponent on the road. BYU just embarrassed them
-UTEP @ Marshall - The Thundering Herd has put up 40 past 2 home games and UTEP slowing UAB isnt inpressing anyone...expect a shootout here
- Idaho@ Fresno - An unimpressive win last week vs NMST doesnty change much for me. Idaho had played poorly past 2 but is off a bye week....
- vaTech @ Wake- play on the under sort of self explanatory
Plays ~ (2-0 +9.80 on wed)
Thursday
Akron +6 -108 (3x) L
Under 52 -110 Pitt (2x) Loss (weather is not an issue why line bounced back to 53)
Under 28.5 -116 2ndH (2x) , Pitt +7.5 -130 (2x) ML +280 (1x)
Friday
Northern Ill +3.5 -106 (5x) ML +150 (1x) Over 48 -109 (3x)
Saturday (Noon)
Boston College -6.5 -120 (6x) Win
Iowa +3.5 -117 (3x) Loss
North Carolina +5 -109 (5x) ML +180 (1x) Win (s)
Over 39 -112 Syracuse (5x) Loss
Cuse ML -105 (2x) Win
Baylor +21 -110 (1x) Loss
Over 46 -105 Wisky (3x) Loss
Buff +38.5 -105 (2x) Win
Over 57 -105 Purdue (4x) Loss
Purdue -12 -108 (4x) Loss
Over 44 -104 South Carolina (2x) Win
Over 53.5 Navy -110 (5x) Loss
Navy 1st H -17.5 -113 (2x) Win
ML Parlay Auburn-127 and Miami ML -161 (3x) Loss
Halftime Notes :
Unfortunately I decided to not play the Overs in Minnesota and Kentucky or Mich State all whic looke good early.
2nd H
Cuse PK -113 (2.5x) Win
Purdue -4 -121 (2x) Win
Penn State -9 -111 (2x) Win
1Pm
Northwestern +3 -115 (5x) ML +128 (2x) Win (s)
2Pm
Florida State -16 -105 (6x) & Under 44 -109 (3x) Losses
Tulane -1-105 (3x) PUSH
over 68 -105 Tex Tech (5x) Loss
Army +29.5 -110 (3x) Loss
Ov 53.5 -105 Army (3x) Loss
Miss State +14.5 -110 (5x) ML +496 (1/2x) Win
Iowa State either +14 or +14.5 (3x) Win
2nd H
Under 23.5 -105 FSU (2x) Loss
3Pm
Rice +3 -115 (3x) ML +118 (1x) Win (s)
3:30 Pm
Over Oregon 44.5 -110 (3x) Win
Kansas ML -125 (7x) Win
SDST +18 -11(3x) +840 ML (1/4x) Loss
Auburn ML -119 (3x) Win
New Mex +27.5 -110 (3x) Win
THEE GAME - Ohio State ML -250 (3x) Ohio State -6 -120 (5x) Win /Loss
4Pm
UNLV +10 -105 (3x) , +9 -110 (2x) ML +350 (1/2x) Win
Over 56-105 Marshall (3x) Win
Idaho +10 -106 (3x) ML +350 (1/2x)Loss
7Pm
VT -105 (2x) & +100 ML (8x) WIN- After much thought here WF is getting to much praise. yes they have played above expectations but did so as a dog. This team was +17 at home vs Clemson now they are favored vs VT who won @ Miami as chalk? FSU struggling today vs WMU sp[eaks volume IMO....just like Maryland today the fairy tale ends as WF SHOULD NOT be less then +3 here
Under 38.5 -109 Wake (4x) Win
Under 55 -105 Louisville (4x) Win
Under 40 -105 Rutgers (4x) Loss (2pt conversion!!!)
Cincy +7.5 -120 (3x) Win
Over 41.5 LSU (3x) Win
Under 45 -105 UAB (3x) PUSH
Under 74 -107 Hawaii (3x)
SJST +24.5 +101 (3x)
ASU -4 -110 (3x)Loss
Leans -
USF +17 -102
Miami ML -155
Vandy +9.5 -111 (played 5x) but will probably middle with Ainge back.
SMU +6 / Ov 49.5
Utah ML
Team Totals -
Under 13.5 West Mich -108 (1x)
Over 19.5 -116 Iowa State (1x)
Over 35.5 -108 Purdue (1x)
Over 11.5 Temple -108 (1x)
Over 19.5 -116 Miami (2x)
Thoughts~
-Miami-Ohio @ BG - Looks like bad weather so while I like the OVER here I will pass for now. Give the edge to BG but just not crazy about this game.
-Akron @ OhioU - This is a tough game but felt it should have been a FG. Two solid defenses but Akron gets the edge offensively and has played some tough road games despite the poor road record. Akrons weakness defensively has been the pass and Ohio U probably cant exploit that.
-WVU @ Pitt - Would lean towards WV here but after Pitt lost @ UConn I have no idea what there mindset is. I think WVU has scored ta least 34 on everyone except ECU so look for that to continue even against a Pitt D that has played well. Pitt should be able to throw on WVU as did Louisville & Brohm. So hoping the total continue sto slide to around 51 where I will play the OVER. Last minute change due to weather concerns and the fact the BOOKS adjusted the total lower I played the Under here. Its my experience that when totals are adjusted for weather or injury you follow the move.
-EMU @ Kent- would probably entertain the over but really no reason to touch this game.
-Cent Mich @ North Ill - I would agree that CMU is the best team in the conference but that doesnt mean they deserve to be road chalk here. A disappointing season for NI sees its QB and RB Horvath and Wolfe playing there LAST HOME game. Think last time CMU won in this series was 1997. CMU on the road has only defeated bad teams like Toledo , Temple and EMU in OT. They made a game out of the shootout at Kentucky but also trailed 21-0 and 28-7 at times. I expect another high scoring game here. While I disagree Dr.Bob has made CMU a strong play and pushe dthe line to 4.
Saturday-
- Maryland @ BC - A string of tough games and narrow wins for Maryland has to have taken a toll as well as overvalued them. Offensively I dont see much from Maryland and this is a BC defense that has allowed 10 pts TOTAL at home in its last 4 games vs Duke , Maine , Buffalo and VaTech. From a defensive standpoint I dont see much from Maryland either that I like. Lets face it Miami ,FSU and Clemson are struggling offenses and this BC offense played well in Maryland last year so what has change? Dr.Bob has pushe dthis line to 8. Well basically I havent seen enough from teh Terp D this year to think they can slow BC or keep them under 24 points. Hollenbach has done a great job protecting the ball but will need to make some plays here. Bey had 2 long TDs last week and I am sure BC has noticed..
- Iowa @ Minny - Simply thought process here...Iowa 10-1 L11 ATS versus Minny and have the better defense. Iowa lost at home thanks to dropped passes. Can they fix that? We shall see..
- NCST @ UNC - Rivalary game where NC has won the past two. Wolfpack despite there last game have not played well on the road. UNC threw some costly picks last 2 weeks but also were position to beat both GT and Wake.
- Syracuse at home can move the ball alot better then it does away and UConns defense is below average and young. With DJ Hernandez at QB the Huskie offense can move the ball consistently even against a decent defense like Cuse. The young RB Brown looks like a stud in the making. Would think about Cuse here after a young Huskie team upset Pitt at home and is now traveling.
- Mich State @ Penn State - would think about the Spartans if Stanton started.
-Oklahoma @ baylor - Sooners are banged up but no interest in laying 20 even against Baylor.Though it be worth a shot on the dog with the OU injuries and possibly look ahead to Ok State the following week. Only crap road game for OU this year...
- Miami @ UVA- Thinking about the Canes here but HATE that UVA is off a road shutout.
-Buffalo @ Wisky - Last home game(and game) for the Badgers so while they might letdown due to a soft opponent and huge win in Iowa they should at least score. Waiting to see if I can do better then 38..thinking 42-10.
- Indiana @ Purdue - The Hoosiers are awful against the PASS and the Purdue passing atatck appears to have gotten on track. Most think Indiana can make this game but I am not sure and we know Dr.Bob has oushed this line to -12...
-Temple @ Navy - Especially on the road the OWLS cannot stop anyone and a gimmick offense might cause even more struggles. Navy has made huge strides last 2 weeks offensively and look for that to continue. Temple always seeems good for some late scores..
-Mid Tenn @ South Car - Type of game Spurrier NEEDS to destroy his opponent. So its SC here or pass IMO. Wins makes SC 6-5 with Clemson on deck. One thinsg for sure looking at the OVER as it appears it will slide some...
- Tenny @ Vandy - Initially played vandy +9.5 -111 but appears Ainge will start so I willprobably get off this game...
-Ill @ Northwestern- just think Illini as a fav is a fade 0-4 SU and ATS as chalk. Northwestern has played much better with Bachar at QB and if not for some early mistakes they could have gave Ohio State some headaches. They turned it over early and that was there death sentence.
-UL Monroe @ Kentucky- Have to like Kentuckyhere cause of there explosive offense but there defense leaves alot to be desired. So for that I am entertaining the over thinking we should do at least 42-14...
-Duke @ GT - who cares
-WMU @ FSU - WMU has struggled offensively on the road outside of Ball State and this FSU defense will be its toughest test. FSU should be looking to bounce back after being SHUTOUT at home and having Jeff Bowden resign as offensive coordinator. They should not be worried about FLA next week and a win pits them at 6-5.
- Mizzou @ Iowa State - simply cant take Iowa State + anything but cant lay 2 TDS on the road with Mizzou either.
- UCF @ Tulane - Without Kenny Smith I dont like UCF at at all... that leaves only Moffett or Israel. Ricard has good numbers (despite teh recnt benching)and UCF pass defense has so many mental lapses.
- Ok State @ Tech - Should be an offensive explosion. Ok State has allowed at least 30 points in all it sroad games and we know Tech can score. Ok State has the same offensive explosiveness whethere home or away.. Ok St allows 9.3 YPA through the air away and Tech 7.8 at home (8.3 L3 games )
- Houston @ Memphis - Th e tigers cannot stop anyone and expect 38 at least from Houston but with thetotal now at 60 its a no play..
- Army @ ND - Thinking over 54 but what scares me is ND keeping it vanilla versus Army with USC on deck. Still hard to imagine ND scores less then 38 here... Look ahead game cleary and took the points (late) and again a Dr.Bob play.....as he cites ND inability to cover big spreads under Weis
-Ark @ Miss State - Great sandwich spot for the Hogs. Huge home win vs Tenn with LSU on deck. Bulldogs off a bye and a win @ Bama...
-Utah St @ Boise - Johnson collapsed lung meansno interest
- ECU @ Rice - Almost have to ride a hot RICE squad here as a dog. A winless rice tam last season played well @ ECU...over 55 ??
- Tulsa @ SMU - looking @ SMU especially if I can get 7. They played a solid game versus Houston last week but collapsed late.
- Mich @ Ohio State - Have this line pegged at -7.5 so seeing which it moves before I act. think we see this -7 turn into -6 but only a guess...-6 I play the Buckeyes...
- Zona @ Oregon - Even a solid defense like the Wildcats will struggle to keep Oregon under 30 poinst at home especially after a loss. Tuitama actually gives Zona a QB.....
- Kan State @ Kansas- the jayhawks have played well at home only losing 4th Q meltdowns to A&M and Okie State while KSU is off the HUGE UPSET at home versus Texas. Young team tends to letdown after a big home win they travel the follwoing week.
- SDST @ TCU - While TCU defense is top notched the offene has been less then impressive. WIth SD showing improvement in recent weeks I thought this was closer to -14 then 17 or 18 pts....
- NM @ BYU - ALways a tight gameI think BYU finally gets inflated here. Have this at more like -21 but the concern is Porterie's health as he has sparked this team.
_ Wyoming @ UNLV - The Rebels palyed better then the boxscore indicates last week. Wyoming just doesnt show much offensively to think they can cruise over an opponent on the road. BYU just embarrassed them
-UTEP @ Marshall - The Thundering Herd has put up 40 past 2 home games and UTEP slowing UAB isnt inpressing anyone...expect a shootout here
- Idaho@ Fresno - An unimpressive win last week vs NMST doesnty change much for me. Idaho had played poorly past 2 but is off a bye week....
- vaTech @ Wake- play on the under sort of self explanatory
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
Tuesday Thoughts NBA & NCAAF -
College Football -
Ball State +5 -110 (3x) ML +183 (1x)
Under 56 -110 Toledo (5x)
NBA-
Bucks ML +105 (5x)
Under 199.5 -110 Miami (5x)
Nuggets +5 -110 (3x) ML +183 (1x)
Under 193.5 -105 Charlotte (5x)
Bobcats 1st Half +4 -102 (2x) ML +183 (1x)
Timberwolves -8 -110 (7x)
Over 88.5 -102 Portand 1st H (2x)
Over 189.5 -102 Dallas (7x) Over 95.5 -102 1st H (2x)
Rockets ML -110 (5x)
Under 198 -105 Utah (3x)
LAC ML -113 1st Half (3x)
Over 209 -105 Golden State (8x)
ML Parlay
Warriors -241 , Mavs -172 , Wolves -353 (5x)
NCAAB -
New Orleans +3.5 -107 (3x)
Det U +6 -106 1st H (6x) ML +300 1st H (1x) game ML +570 (1x) +12 -110 (2x)
Probbaly wont be around till late tonite
College Football -
Ball State +5 -110 (3x) ML +183 (1x)
Under 56 -110 Toledo (5x)
NBA-
Bucks ML +105 (5x)
Under 199.5 -110 Miami (5x)
Nuggets +5 -110 (3x) ML +183 (1x)
Under 193.5 -105 Charlotte (5x)
Bobcats 1st Half +4 -102 (2x) ML +183 (1x)
Timberwolves -8 -110 (7x)
Over 88.5 -102 Portand 1st H (2x)
Over 189.5 -102 Dallas (7x) Over 95.5 -102 1st H (2x)
Rockets ML -110 (5x)
Under 198 -105 Utah (3x)
LAC ML -113 1st Half (3x)
Over 209 -105 Golden State (8x)
ML Parlay
Warriors -241 , Mavs -172 , Wolves -353 (5x)
NCAAB -
New Orleans +3.5 -107 (3x)
Det U +6 -106 1st H (6x) ML +300 1st H (1x) game ML +570 (1x) +12 -110 (2x)
Probbaly wont be around till late tonite
Monday, November 13, 2006
Monday , November 13th NBA & NFL Thoughts
Note: In attempt to solidfy my returns I have changed my unit system slightily.
NBA -
Plays -
Under 198 -105 Boston (2x)
Under 99 -101 1st Half Boston (2x) Win +2.00
Nets ML -143 (12x) Loss -17.16
- NJ sucks! I played this wrong should have went Sonics ML and NJ -3 to hedge it. Knew it was a dangerous game but Seattle probably will be the 1st team I can remember in 15 years going 5-0 ATS on a road trip..it happens...liked the over as well. I fell asleep at the wheel here..again . Makes you wonder why NJ was sleeping thru the 1st quarter...
2nd Half Over 99 -101 NJ(3x) & NJN -5.5 +102 (3x) Wins +6.06
Knicks +6 -110 (5x) Push& ML +210 (1x) (had posted Cavs in error) L-1.00
Over 209 -105 Toronto & Golden State on Tuesday (8x)
Team Totals
Under 102.5 -108 Cle (1x) Win(102) +1.00
NCAA
Buffalo ML +164 (1x) L
Georgia Southern +20 -110 (3x) L
Over 150 +100 Fordham (2x)
Greensboro +10 -110 (3x) ML +410 (1x) L
FSU -6-108 2nd Half (1x) W
Tenn -4.5 -123 2nd H (1x)
NFL Parlay
Over 37 +100 / Panthers ML -520 (4x) pays 5.54x
2nd H Car -7 -103 (1x)
2nd H Car -14 +365 (1x)
2nd H Over 17 -106 (2x)
Thoughts -
~ Orlando @ Boston - The Celtics have played poorly to begin this season but Orlando is playing its 3rd road game in 4 nites. Orlando historically struggles in Boston dropping 9 of 10 and 14 of 16 in Beantown. Boston jumped on the Cavs at home leading by 25 in the 3rd quarter and 19 in the 4th quarter but got blitzed by a 24 -3 run late and lost by 1. Wally World sat out that game being replaced by Delonte West. Both teams have put there opponents on the FT line about 30-35 times a game which can skew the team totals. Would wait to see if Szczerbiak is playing before making a decision as the offense is really limited w/o him. Would entertain the UNDER if he is not healthy enough to play. Hard to take ORL playing 3rd in 4 nites away in a place they dont play well. Grant Hill was given Sat Nite off and should be fine here. Magic have scored 100+ in 4 games but the other three were 82-88 points. The games the offense struggled they managed only 48-80 from the FT line. On the road they are just 19 of 30FT in 3 games. Boston is inconsistent from the FT line with 2 home games were they missed 15 and 11 attempts but also having two games above 75 % at home.
Play: Under 198 Boston
~ Cleveland @ NYK - The Knicks have looked awful in 2 games ta the Garden versus Indiana and SA. They played CLE well last year winning all three ATS and going 2-1 SU. Richardson had some huge games versus the Cavs. This year Cle has proven to be inconsistent following an up and down pattern defeating SA then losing @ Charlotte and at home in OT to ATL but smoking Chicago at home only to need a 20 pt 4th Quarter rally to defeat a Wally-less Boston team by 1. So right now road chalk is not something I see as value for them. Cavs have lost 3 straight in NY and are 1-4 ATS a a favorite. On the road Cavs have struggled offensively at just 88 points per while NYK has had trouble defending allowing 107. NYK struggles have been highlighted earlyby allowingteams to bomb away and hit 11 of 21 trey vs them @ MSG. With Cle shooting 4.5 og 16 away from trey they might not be able to take advantage. Cavs have put there opponents on the 34 times and NY gets to the line 32 times. NY has made 72 % while Cavs first two games they made only about 62 %. Cavs have taken 36 attemts per but shooting just 65 % while NYK has kept teams off the line sending them just 18 times per.
Play NYK +6 -110 ML +210
~ Sea @ NJN - These situational angles have destroyed my profits early. Finally the books have overadjusted these situations and I am paying for it. I was suprised to see SEA dogged in Char and ATL and they won both but I still playe d (and paid for)the home teams heavily fading a busy SEA team on a EAST COAST trip. Now they stand 4-0 ATS on this trip and its always been hard to go perfect ATS on these trips since I have tracked this. Two obvious things concern me here as I finally think the line isnt shaded high . Its RJ being out and NJ playing OT yesterday and 3rd in 4 nites. However this line is low IMO and I have to ride NJ here at home a place where SEA has struggled. NJ had a short trip to Wash yesterday and played at 6 PM. The extended minutes for Vince and Kidd are a concern but the increased contributions from Nachbar and Kristic ws positives. Sea playing 8th in 11 nites and last of the trip here. NJ allows 4.7 for 18.3 from trey and that is Seattles key on offense as they hit 7.4 for 19.4 away from deep. The Sonics have not shot exceptional well(44.8 %) but managed nearly 85 from the FT line.
Play : NJN & lean over
NFL - TB @ CAR
All the trends point to TB here but that is a huge leap of faith looking at the past 2 games and realizing they will be w/o 3 key starters on defense Wyms, Quarles and Rice. As well as playing a Carolina team off a BYE who blew an embarrassing game on TV at home before the BYE. Scary stat is that TB has scored only 7 1st quarter points all season and against a hungry team like CAR this could mean another defecit they will have to try and overcome. Carolina has won 6 of 7 versus TB but TB has covered the past 4 in Carolina. Now while it looks like TB came back down 20-7 at Half in the 1st meeting it took 3 Carolina fumbles to give TB there 17 2nd H points. So they got alot of help in that comeback including short fields twice starting at Car 15 and there own 49 and 39. Th eflip side is TB aided Carolina as well with 2 TD drives of 31 and 59 yards setup by a Simms INT and short punt. The FG drives were 8 , 21 , 34 and 58 yds for Carolina. An interesting side note is CAR is the team that ended Simms season with the beating he took that game.
TB offensive game plan is hard to figure. You have a young QB and 'stud' young RB in Cadillac yet they ran the ball only 12 and 8 times with him past two. Yes, theytrailed noth times 14-0 but that hardly has game over written on it. The TB defense did a good job against Tiki in NY and must do the same here. However Deuce did play well 15c 123yds and ATL ran for over 300 yards. Against NO they did a great job on pass defense limiting Horn and Colston to 7 combined catches. Eli also struggled 16 of 31 for 154 yards but it was a windy day. Vick was just 10-15 for 92 yards but they carried it 44 times for 306 yards bewteen vick , Dunn and Norwood. On teh road they have allowed 24 , 17 and 14 all solid numbers but again how do the key injuries play into this.
Basically I am real hesitant to lay 10 pts here but with an offense that has gone backwarsd lately you wonder how TB can score? The Panthers have looked worse at home losing to ATL and DAL plus playing close games to Cleveland and NO. They were so-so against the Dallas run attack and thats what TB needs to do here. Carolina is not without injury as Hartwig reinjured himself and is OUT tonite though he barely played in relief vs DAL. Lucas is battling a sore groin but appears ready to play amd DeAngelo Willaims could return as well. Best to stay away for now
Note: In attempt to solidfy my returns I have changed my unit system slightily.
NBA -
Plays -
Under 198 -105 Boston (2x)
Under 99 -101 1st Half Boston (2x) Win +2.00
Nets ML -143 (12x) Loss -17.16
- NJ sucks! I played this wrong should have went Sonics ML and NJ -3 to hedge it. Knew it was a dangerous game but Seattle probably will be the 1st team I can remember in 15 years going 5-0 ATS on a road trip..it happens...liked the over as well. I fell asleep at the wheel here..again . Makes you wonder why NJ was sleeping thru the 1st quarter...
2nd Half Over 99 -101 NJ(3x) & NJN -5.5 +102 (3x) Wins +6.06
Knicks +6 -110 (5x) Push& ML +210 (1x) (had posted Cavs in error) L-1.00
Over 209 -105 Toronto & Golden State on Tuesday (8x)
Team Totals
Under 102.5 -108 Cle (1x) Win(102) +1.00
NCAA
Buffalo ML +164 (1x) L
Georgia Southern +20 -110 (3x) L
Over 150 +100 Fordham (2x)
Greensboro +10 -110 (3x) ML +410 (1x) L
FSU -6-108 2nd Half (1x) W
Tenn -4.5 -123 2nd H (1x)
NFL Parlay
Over 37 +100 / Panthers ML -520 (4x) pays 5.54x
2nd H Car -7 -103 (1x)
2nd H Car -14 +365 (1x)
2nd H Over 17 -106 (2x)
Thoughts -
~ Orlando @ Boston - The Celtics have played poorly to begin this season but Orlando is playing its 3rd road game in 4 nites. Orlando historically struggles in Boston dropping 9 of 10 and 14 of 16 in Beantown. Boston jumped on the Cavs at home leading by 25 in the 3rd quarter and 19 in the 4th quarter but got blitzed by a 24 -3 run late and lost by 1. Wally World sat out that game being replaced by Delonte West. Both teams have put there opponents on the FT line about 30-35 times a game which can skew the team totals. Would wait to see if Szczerbiak is playing before making a decision as the offense is really limited w/o him. Would entertain the UNDER if he is not healthy enough to play. Hard to take ORL playing 3rd in 4 nites away in a place they dont play well. Grant Hill was given Sat Nite off and should be fine here. Magic have scored 100+ in 4 games but the other three were 82-88 points. The games the offense struggled they managed only 48-80 from the FT line. On the road they are just 19 of 30FT in 3 games. Boston is inconsistent from the FT line with 2 home games were they missed 15 and 11 attempts but also having two games above 75 % at home.
Play: Under 198 Boston
~ Cleveland @ NYK - The Knicks have looked awful in 2 games ta the Garden versus Indiana and SA. They played CLE well last year winning all three ATS and going 2-1 SU. Richardson had some huge games versus the Cavs. This year Cle has proven to be inconsistent following an up and down pattern defeating SA then losing @ Charlotte and at home in OT to ATL but smoking Chicago at home only to need a 20 pt 4th Quarter rally to defeat a Wally-less Boston team by 1. So right now road chalk is not something I see as value for them. Cavs have lost 3 straight in NY and are 1-4 ATS a a favorite. On the road Cavs have struggled offensively at just 88 points per while NYK has had trouble defending allowing 107. NYK struggles have been highlighted earlyby allowingteams to bomb away and hit 11 of 21 trey vs them @ MSG. With Cle shooting 4.5 og 16 away from trey they might not be able to take advantage. Cavs have put there opponents on the 34 times and NY gets to the line 32 times. NY has made 72 % while Cavs first two games they made only about 62 %. Cavs have taken 36 attemts per but shooting just 65 % while NYK has kept teams off the line sending them just 18 times per.
Play NYK +6 -110 ML +210
~ Sea @ NJN - These situational angles have destroyed my profits early. Finally the books have overadjusted these situations and I am paying for it. I was suprised to see SEA dogged in Char and ATL and they won both but I still playe d (and paid for)the home teams heavily fading a busy SEA team on a EAST COAST trip. Now they stand 4-0 ATS on this trip and its always been hard to go perfect ATS on these trips since I have tracked this. Two obvious things concern me here as I finally think the line isnt shaded high . Its RJ being out and NJ playing OT yesterday and 3rd in 4 nites. However this line is low IMO and I have to ride NJ here at home a place where SEA has struggled. NJ had a short trip to Wash yesterday and played at 6 PM. The extended minutes for Vince and Kidd are a concern but the increased contributions from Nachbar and Kristic ws positives. Sea playing 8th in 11 nites and last of the trip here. NJ allows 4.7 for 18.3 from trey and that is Seattles key on offense as they hit 7.4 for 19.4 away from deep. The Sonics have not shot exceptional well(44.8 %) but managed nearly 85 from the FT line.
Play : NJN & lean over
NFL - TB @ CAR
All the trends point to TB here but that is a huge leap of faith looking at the past 2 games and realizing they will be w/o 3 key starters on defense Wyms, Quarles and Rice. As well as playing a Carolina team off a BYE who blew an embarrassing game on TV at home before the BYE. Scary stat is that TB has scored only 7 1st quarter points all season and against a hungry team like CAR this could mean another defecit they will have to try and overcome. Carolina has won 6 of 7 versus TB but TB has covered the past 4 in Carolina. Now while it looks like TB came back down 20-7 at Half in the 1st meeting it took 3 Carolina fumbles to give TB there 17 2nd H points. So they got alot of help in that comeback including short fields twice starting at Car 15 and there own 49 and 39. Th eflip side is TB aided Carolina as well with 2 TD drives of 31 and 59 yards setup by a Simms INT and short punt. The FG drives were 8 , 21 , 34 and 58 yds for Carolina. An interesting side note is CAR is the team that ended Simms season with the beating he took that game.
TB offensive game plan is hard to figure. You have a young QB and 'stud' young RB in Cadillac yet they ran the ball only 12 and 8 times with him past two. Yes, theytrailed noth times 14-0 but that hardly has game over written on it. The TB defense did a good job against Tiki in NY and must do the same here. However Deuce did play well 15c 123yds and ATL ran for over 300 yards. Against NO they did a great job on pass defense limiting Horn and Colston to 7 combined catches. Eli also struggled 16 of 31 for 154 yards but it was a windy day. Vick was just 10-15 for 92 yards but they carried it 44 times for 306 yards bewteen vick , Dunn and Norwood. On teh road they have allowed 24 , 17 and 14 all solid numbers but again how do the key injuries play into this.
Basically I am real hesitant to lay 10 pts here but with an offense that has gone backwarsd lately you wonder how TB can score? The Panthers have looked worse at home losing to ATL and DAL plus playing close games to Cleveland and NO. They were so-so against the Dallas run attack and thats what TB needs to do here. Carolina is not without injury as Hartwig reinjured himself and is OUT tonite though he barely played in relief vs DAL. Lucas is battling a sore groin but appears ready to play amd DeAngelo Willaims could return as well. Best to stay away for now
Sunday, November 12, 2006
NFL Plays & Basketball
Today-
KC Cheifs ML +121 (5x)L
Jaguars -10 -103 (3x) L
Bengals +1.5 -105 (5x) & ML +100 (3x)L
Over 48 -105 SD (5x)W
Browns +9 -117 (4x) W
Over 42 -102 Atl (4x) L
Titans +9.5 -127 (5x) W
Bills +12 -105 (3x) W
Under 45.5 -106 Pitt (4x) L
Eagles -6. 5 -120 (5x) W
Under 39.5 -110 NYG (10x)
Bears +3.5 -135 (5x)
Packers +5.5 -110 (3x) W
NYJ +10.5 -108 (5x) W
SF +7 -110 (3x) W
Over 46 -101 Det (3x)L
Seahawks -2.5 -110 (6x)
Cardinals +7.5 -120 (7x) L
Over 43 -106 Dallas (3x) L
Over 33.5 -105 Den (2x)
Team Totals
Ov KC 19 -123 (2x) L
Ov 23.5 Cincy -122 (3x) W
Ov 24 SD -115 (2x) W
Under 20 -123 NO (2x)L
Over 26 -120 Det(3x) L
Ov 18.5 -106 Zona (2x) L
Teasers
Eagles -1 / Steelers PK (8x)
Colts -2 , Jags PK , Eagles +3 (6x) L
Colts -2 , Jags PK , Broncos +1 (4x) L
SF +12.5 / Ov 40 (2x) L
1st Half
ML Browns +224(1x) Win
Under 22.5 +111 Indy (1x) Win
2nd Half
Over 21.5 -110 Det (1.5x) L
Basketball
Under 193 -110 NO (3x) W
Over 141 -124 Arizona / Virginia(4x) W
Over 183 -104 Houston (3x)
2nd H Over 101 Denver (6x) W
Wiz -6.5 -116 2nd H (4x) L
Over 104 -111Wiz 2nd H (3x)W
Under 198 -109 Sac (3x)
Under 188 -110 LAL (3x)
Blazers +6.5 -110 (5x)ML +225 (1x)
Over 188 -102 Dallas (5x)
Rockets ML +128 (3x)
2nd H Over 92 -105 Dallas (4x)
2nd H Under 98 -106 Sac (4x)
Quick Comment -
~Would love to be able to put more on this but the injury situation is a huge concern for me in KC with Waters , Wesley and Derrick Johnson. The value is to hard to pass up though but the strong line move towards Miami is unnerving...
~Basically the same with Jax really like the is game but because of continued injury concerns I have to be careful. Great revenge spot...
~Sd does not have a quality road win and I think Cincy is clearly still playing hard. SD defense is shorthanded...
~The Falcons are inconsistent and suffering through a ton of injuries in the secondary. Again if Frye didnt have a shoulder issue would be heavier...
~ This was a quick decision on Sunday Nite last week....Ravens ofense still hasnt improved and Tenny was short a fw key players whop should return...
~ Bills tend to be a live dog . Indy is off two prmetime games with Dalla son deck sort of a snadwich spot....think low scoring battle here 23-14
~Originally liked NO but with Horn OUT going back to the Steelers...
~Eagles 7-0 off a bye and have 3 starigt losses. Skins off fluke win at home beat Eagles twice last year....
~ This was two nice snags on the lines for me. Decimated NYG defense and both offenses misssing key WRs...
~ GB and Favre not a good dome team except they have played well in Minny last few visits. Offense cant stretch the field in Minny without Marcus robinson...
~ Thought that NE had played poorly in all 4 home games this year and NY off a bye while NE also off2 primetime games...
~Think SF can score on Det to keep it close even possible win SU...
~ Seattle at home is still dangerous and remember the Rams barely won in GB and Zona plus embarrassed at home by KC last week.
~No Glenn and Denny Green off they BYE (11-2??) plus Leinart much better at home , Fitz is back
Today-
KC Cheifs ML +121 (5x)L
Jaguars -10 -103 (3x) L
Bengals +1.5 -105 (5x) & ML +100 (3x)L
Over 48 -105 SD (5x)W
Browns +9 -117 (4x) W
Over 42 -102 Atl (4x) L
Titans +9.5 -127 (5x) W
Bills +12 -105 (3x) W
Under 45.5 -106 Pitt (4x) L
Eagles -6. 5 -120 (5x) W
Under 39.5 -110 NYG (10x)
Bears +3.5 -135 (5x)
Packers +5.5 -110 (3x) W
NYJ +10.5 -108 (5x) W
SF +7 -110 (3x) W
Over 46 -101 Det (3x)L
Seahawks -2.5 -110 (6x)
Cardinals +7.5 -120 (7x) L
Over 43 -106 Dallas (3x) L
Over 33.5 -105 Den (2x)
Team Totals
Ov KC 19 -123 (2x) L
Ov 23.5 Cincy -122 (3x) W
Ov 24 SD -115 (2x) W
Under 20 -123 NO (2x)L
Over 26 -120 Det(3x) L
Ov 18.5 -106 Zona (2x) L
Teasers
Eagles -1 / Steelers PK (8x)
Colts -2 , Jags PK , Eagles +3 (6x) L
Colts -2 , Jags PK , Broncos +1 (4x) L
SF +12.5 / Ov 40 (2x) L
1st Half
ML Browns +224(1x) Win
Under 22.5 +111 Indy (1x) Win
2nd Half
Over 21.5 -110 Det (1.5x) L
Basketball
Under 193 -110 NO (3x) W
Over 141 -124 Arizona / Virginia(4x) W
Over 183 -104 Houston (3x)
2nd H Over 101 Denver (6x) W
Wiz -6.5 -116 2nd H (4x) L
Over 104 -111Wiz 2nd H (3x)W
Under 198 -109 Sac (3x)
Under 188 -110 LAL (3x)
Blazers +6.5 -110 (5x)ML +225 (1x)
Over 188 -102 Dallas (5x)
Rockets ML +128 (3x)
2nd H Over 92 -105 Dallas (4x)
2nd H Under 98 -106 Sac (4x)
Quick Comment -
~Would love to be able to put more on this but the injury situation is a huge concern for me in KC with Waters , Wesley and Derrick Johnson. The value is to hard to pass up though but the strong line move towards Miami is unnerving...
~Basically the same with Jax really like the is game but because of continued injury concerns I have to be careful. Great revenge spot...
~Sd does not have a quality road win and I think Cincy is clearly still playing hard. SD defense is shorthanded...
~The Falcons are inconsistent and suffering through a ton of injuries in the secondary. Again if Frye didnt have a shoulder issue would be heavier...
~ This was a quick decision on Sunday Nite last week....Ravens ofense still hasnt improved and Tenny was short a fw key players whop should return...
~ Bills tend to be a live dog . Indy is off two prmetime games with Dalla son deck sort of a snadwich spot....think low scoring battle here 23-14
~Originally liked NO but with Horn OUT going back to the Steelers...
~Eagles 7-0 off a bye and have 3 starigt losses. Skins off fluke win at home beat Eagles twice last year....
~ This was two nice snags on the lines for me. Decimated NYG defense and both offenses misssing key WRs...
~ GB and Favre not a good dome team except they have played well in Minny last few visits. Offense cant stretch the field in Minny without Marcus robinson...
~ Thought that NE had played poorly in all 4 home games this year and NY off a bye while NE also off2 primetime games...
~Think SF can score on Det to keep it close even possible win SU...
~ Seattle at home is still dangerous and remember the Rams barely won in GB and Zona plus embarrassed at home by KC last week.
~No Glenn and Denny Green off they BYE (11-2??) plus Leinart much better at home , Fitz is back
Saturday, November 11, 2006
Saturday Nite Thoughts -
Looking back on Friday what bad luck as NO blows a 25 point lead after 1 , Nets blow a 10 pt lead at half and Charlotte and Orlando blow small halftime leads and get blownout in the 2nd H...believe those were my only losses....but a negative nite cause of the size...basically washed out Thursdays gains.
Hawks -3-102 (15x) still line watching though ML now -140 (lean under 202)
This is definetly something I try to figure out the way to play cheapest. We have a HOT Hawks team who just continues to impress. They return home where they really outplayed Orlando and NYK already. What I love here is the fact its two situational fades butting heads for Seattle. First the Sonics are playing there 4th ROAD game in 5 nites and also 5th game in 7 days as they hosted LAL on Sunday. Starting on Tuesday they played in Miami , followed by a game in Orl on Wed and tonitee in Charlotte where they needed a huge 2nd H comeback to take command. Both Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis played about 40 minutes and all 5 starters logged 30 +. ATL had some key players play big minutes namely Joe Johnson but they also had a few days rest before this game. Its weird seeing ATL as a favorite but they were -4.5 when theyhosted SEA last year though they lost SU.
Thoughts-
Over 195 -110 Boston (4x)
-Thought Cle should be -8.5 so no play
Under 197 -109 Spurs (3x)
-Like SA -13 but no play yet
Minny -4 .5 -112 (3x)
- Lean to the Un 187.5 but staying off
Over 196.5 -114 Utah / Milw (6x)
-Milw has shown heart past 2 games with late comebacks but staing off a side cause the Bucks are desperate
Over 187 -109 Chi (3x)
-staying away from a side like the pacers but strange move to +7...
Suns -10-105 (7x)
-Suns finally get a team with offensive issues and they should not have a late collapse here. playing much better then the record...
good luck
Looking back on Friday what bad luck as NO blows a 25 point lead after 1 , Nets blow a 10 pt lead at half and Charlotte and Orlando blow small halftime leads and get blownout in the 2nd H...believe those were my only losses....but a negative nite cause of the size...basically washed out Thursdays gains.
Hawks -3-102 (15x) still line watching though ML now -140 (lean under 202)
This is definetly something I try to figure out the way to play cheapest. We have a HOT Hawks team who just continues to impress. They return home where they really outplayed Orlando and NYK already. What I love here is the fact its two situational fades butting heads for Seattle. First the Sonics are playing there 4th ROAD game in 5 nites and also 5th game in 7 days as they hosted LAL on Sunday. Starting on Tuesday they played in Miami , followed by a game in Orl on Wed and tonitee in Charlotte where they needed a huge 2nd H comeback to take command. Both Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis played about 40 minutes and all 5 starters logged 30 +. ATL had some key players play big minutes namely Joe Johnson but they also had a few days rest before this game. Its weird seeing ATL as a favorite but they were -4.5 when theyhosted SEA last year though they lost SU.
Thoughts-
Over 195 -110 Boston (4x)
-Thought Cle should be -8.5 so no play
Under 197 -109 Spurs (3x)
-Like SA -13 but no play yet
Minny -4 .5 -112 (3x)
- Lean to the Un 187.5 but staying off
Over 196.5 -114 Utah / Milw (6x)
-Milw has shown heart past 2 games with late comebacks but staing off a side cause the Bucks are desperate
Over 187 -109 Chi (3x)
-staying away from a side like the pacers but strange move to +7...
Suns -10-105 (7x)
-Suns finally get a team with offensive issues and they should not have a late collapse here. playing much better then the record...
Pistons +3.5 -104 (3x) & oV 196.5 -110 (3X)
good luck
Friday, November 10, 2006
Friday NBA Thoughts
Solid nite going 3-1 but lost the Suns Under...and talked myslef out of the Cavs. If I had some balls I would have pounded Over Cavs 2nd H and GS 2nd H yesterday.
Plays & Leans -
Charlotte Bobcats +1 -106 (7x) L
Raptors -4 -113 (6x) & -3.5 -105 (3x)L
Over 199.5 ATL -115 & Under 203 -110 (5x middle) xxxxx
Magic +5 -120 (3x) ML +165(1x)( now +5 +100 & +195) L
Ov 207.5 -110 Wiz (3x) W
Denver +3 -108 (6x) & ML +134 (1x) W
Over 206 -107 Philly (4x) W
Over 196 -110 Utah (4x) W
NJ -4 -111(6x) L
New York Knicks +10.5 -110 (8x) W
New Orleans ML -133 (6x) L (wrong score reported...how the fuck do you blow a 25 pt lead?)
Pistons +5 -107 (4x) W
ML parlay Wiz -226 , Tor -171 and Utah -160 (1x)
Then (2x each) Wiz with Tor and Wiz with Utah
2nd H
Raptors -4.5 -102 (3x) L
Over 104 +104 Tor (2x) W(high line...seems shady like the 2nd q pace )
NYK +3.5 -111(3x) W
CBB (1-2 YTD) What was I thinking?
Hawaii +8 -108 (3x) L
East Wash +10-110 (4x)L
Thoughts -
~ Atl @ Tor - Hawks win 3 straight pull off an upset due IMO to Cle just losing focus (up 10 with 9 to play). Cavs were miserable in the 2nd H from the FT line and with the chance to 'ice' the game King James missed a FT to extend to three with seconds remaining, instead he missed and Lue hit a floater in the lane for OT. The Hawks did a nice job of beating barely .00 type teams in Orl & NYK in ATL. They lost in Philly which Tor just beat and got he gift win in Cleveland. So to me alot of fuss over a smoewhat flukish win keeps this line soft...Philly was -3.5 here the other nite and would say that Philly is a good 3 or 4 pts stronger then ATL on a neutral court...which leads me to believe this should be closer to -5.5 . AT first glance the OVER made sense but looking at how many shots ATL opponents are avg it will take a tremendous effort fg% wise to get this in the 200's. Last year when ATL played no defense it was possible but this year seems different...so actaully lean to the UNDER @ 201 or better. So gonna middle the total..
~ Orl @ Ind - I really dont have a great feel for this game. However I thought with O'Neal at less the 100% , Granger and Tinsly struggling I think Orlando can hang with them tonite despite there struggles last year vs Indy.
~ Milw @ Wash - Take away the opener versus Det and IMO Milwauke has played poorly. The last game at home versus Houston wasnt nearly as close as the final indicates. I give MILW credit for the 4th Q comeback but what happened the other 3 quarters...appeared that Hosuton just got sloppy with the ball. Otherwise MILW was smoked at Toronto and Chicago. Arenas is on fire at the moment and Ilook for that to continue. Wiz have scored 124 and 117 at home...
~ Den@ Philly - The Nuggets keep finding new ways to lose. They could be 3-0 and stand at 0-3 because of that we get a spread I feel is off a bit probably closer to a PK game really. Nuggets were favored in Philly last year and both teams virtually the same. Denver has benefited from playing just 3 games this year while Philly playing 3rd in 4 nites..
~ Sea @ Char - Seattle is the best 1-4 team this season, they are a "few" 4th Q collapses from being 5-0. Every nite they find a new way to lose but eventually they will play a game. Tonites a great spot with the 3rd in 4 nites away also part of a 5 game tripwhich has seen them go 0-2 SU but 2-0 ATS. They play in ATL tmrw. Big injury with Raymond Felton being OUT here but Morrison steps in at the two and Knight slides to the point. Last year Seattle was waxed down in Charlotte by 13 and 25 after 3 quarters. That was the Marvin Ely , Jumaine Jones , Primo Brezec frontline..Okafor is beginning to live up to the potential tag and Sean May is also playing well off the bench. I like Morrison starting here against a team disinterested in playing defense. Havent watched the past 2 Sonics game and cant understand the low shot attempts in those games. WIth Miami I played the UNDER with Shaq out but went Over in Orlando which was never close...I gonna wait and see where this total settles but I think I play the over here...Collison is questionable along with Fortson both were limited in pratice on Thursday.
~ Utah @ Bos - Not crazy about road chalk but Boston gave it everything to defeat Charlotte at home at the OT buzzer..Utah hung with NJ but ultimately faded. I see Utah bouncing back here but historically the Celts play Utah well. This year I dont think they have the big men to playwith this developing line of Boozer , Kirilenko and Okur. Al Jefferson loss will be felt here especially..Ryan Gomes an out of shape Ratliff , Candy Man and the rest of the cast will have there hands full. Utah is putting there opponents on the line 37 times a game and Charlotte went to the line 52 times versus Boston pushing the Celts up to 39 FTs allowed per. Both teams are solid from the line and hit a decent pct from three...
~ Miami @ NJN - For me I just think Miami has looked awful this year. Shaw probably isnt 100% and he was a big reason why they won last week in the 1st matchup. Miami has won 5 straight but this isnt last year and heat arent coming off an embarassing home loss. RJ was less then 100% last week I believe in this game and it showed in the boxscore. Miami won a close one but I think NJ rolls here at home...
~ NYK @ Hou - Tough spot for the home team 5th in 7 days , off a 3 game road trip . NY played Houston tight last year and the NYK showed they can win a tight game witha 4th Q comeback in Denver. They showed heart on Monday and coming back vs SA but the season is young and Isiah is still looking for a mix that works.....to many points here...
~ NO @ Port - Value play here as NO starting get abit overvaued IMO as we saw hem lose ATS to GS twice. The Blazers have pulled off a couple upsets at home already but I think we should have still seen -4 here. Randolph hasnt played particulary well vs NO and he is there offense.
~ Det @ LAL - DET always struggles on the west coast but I think LAL is falling back to there old Kobe ways...stand and wtach Kobe......
Solid nite going 3-1 but lost the Suns Under...and talked myslef out of the Cavs. If I had some balls I would have pounded Over Cavs 2nd H and GS 2nd H yesterday.
Plays & Leans -
Charlotte Bobcats +1 -106 (7x) L
Raptors -4 -113 (6x) & -3.5 -105 (3x)L
Over 199.5 ATL -115 & Under 203 -110 (5x middle) xxxxx
Magic +5 -120 (3x) ML +165(1x)( now +5 +100 & +195) L
Ov 207.5 -110 Wiz (3x) W
Denver +3 -108 (6x) & ML +134 (1x) W
Over 206 -107 Philly (4x) W
Over 196 -110 Utah (4x) W
NJ -4 -111(6x) L
New York Knicks +10.5 -110 (8x) W
New Orleans ML -133 (6x) L (wrong score reported...how the fuck do you blow a 25 pt lead?)
Pistons +5 -107 (4x) W
ML parlay Wiz -226 , Tor -171 and Utah -160 (1x)
Then (2x each) Wiz with Tor and Wiz with Utah
2nd H
Raptors -4.5 -102 (3x) L
Over 104 +104 Tor (2x) W(high line...seems shady like the 2nd q pace )
NYK +3.5 -111(3x) W
CBB (1-2 YTD) What was I thinking?
Hawaii +8 -108 (3x) L
East Wash +10-110 (4x)L
Thoughts -
~ Atl @ Tor - Hawks win 3 straight pull off an upset due IMO to Cle just losing focus (up 10 with 9 to play). Cavs were miserable in the 2nd H from the FT line and with the chance to 'ice' the game King James missed a FT to extend to three with seconds remaining, instead he missed and Lue hit a floater in the lane for OT. The Hawks did a nice job of beating barely .00 type teams in Orl & NYK in ATL. They lost in Philly which Tor just beat and got he gift win in Cleveland. So to me alot of fuss over a smoewhat flukish win keeps this line soft...Philly was -3.5 here the other nite and would say that Philly is a good 3 or 4 pts stronger then ATL on a neutral court...which leads me to believe this should be closer to -5.5 . AT first glance the OVER made sense but looking at how many shots ATL opponents are avg it will take a tremendous effort fg% wise to get this in the 200's. Last year when ATL played no defense it was possible but this year seems different...so actaully lean to the UNDER @ 201 or better. So gonna middle the total..
~ Orl @ Ind - I really dont have a great feel for this game. However I thought with O'Neal at less the 100% , Granger and Tinsly struggling I think Orlando can hang with them tonite despite there struggles last year vs Indy.
~ Milw @ Wash - Take away the opener versus Det and IMO Milwauke has played poorly. The last game at home versus Houston wasnt nearly as close as the final indicates. I give MILW credit for the 4th Q comeback but what happened the other 3 quarters...appeared that Hosuton just got sloppy with the ball. Otherwise MILW was smoked at Toronto and Chicago. Arenas is on fire at the moment and Ilook for that to continue. Wiz have scored 124 and 117 at home...
~ Den@ Philly - The Nuggets keep finding new ways to lose. They could be 3-0 and stand at 0-3 because of that we get a spread I feel is off a bit probably closer to a PK game really. Nuggets were favored in Philly last year and both teams virtually the same. Denver has benefited from playing just 3 games this year while Philly playing 3rd in 4 nites..
~ Sea @ Char - Seattle is the best 1-4 team this season, they are a "few" 4th Q collapses from being 5-0. Every nite they find a new way to lose but eventually they will play a game. Tonites a great spot with the 3rd in 4 nites away also part of a 5 game tripwhich has seen them go 0-2 SU but 2-0 ATS. They play in ATL tmrw. Big injury with Raymond Felton being OUT here but Morrison steps in at the two and Knight slides to the point. Last year Seattle was waxed down in Charlotte by 13 and 25 after 3 quarters. That was the Marvin Ely , Jumaine Jones , Primo Brezec frontline..Okafor is beginning to live up to the potential tag and Sean May is also playing well off the bench. I like Morrison starting here against a team disinterested in playing defense. Havent watched the past 2 Sonics game and cant understand the low shot attempts in those games. WIth Miami I played the UNDER with Shaq out but went Over in Orlando which was never close...I gonna wait and see where this total settles but I think I play the over here...Collison is questionable along with Fortson both were limited in pratice on Thursday.
~ Utah @ Bos - Not crazy about road chalk but Boston gave it everything to defeat Charlotte at home at the OT buzzer..Utah hung with NJ but ultimately faded. I see Utah bouncing back here but historically the Celts play Utah well. This year I dont think they have the big men to playwith this developing line of Boozer , Kirilenko and Okur. Al Jefferson loss will be felt here especially..Ryan Gomes an out of shape Ratliff , Candy Man and the rest of the cast will have there hands full. Utah is putting there opponents on the line 37 times a game and Charlotte went to the line 52 times versus Boston pushing the Celts up to 39 FTs allowed per. Both teams are solid from the line and hit a decent pct from three...
~ Miami @ NJN - For me I just think Miami has looked awful this year. Shaw probably isnt 100% and he was a big reason why they won last week in the 1st matchup. Miami has won 5 straight but this isnt last year and heat arent coming off an embarassing home loss. RJ was less then 100% last week I believe in this game and it showed in the boxscore. Miami won a close one but I think NJ rolls here at home...
~ NYK @ Hou - Tough spot for the home team 5th in 7 days , off a 3 game road trip . NY played Houston tight last year and the NYK showed they can win a tight game witha 4th Q comeback in Denver. They showed heart on Monday and coming back vs SA but the season is young and Isiah is still looking for a mix that works.....to many points here...
~ NO @ Port - Value play here as NO starting get abit overvaued IMO as we saw hem lose ATS to GS twice. The Blazers have pulled off a couple upsets at home already but I think we should have still seen -4 here. Randolph hasnt played particulary well vs NO and he is there offense.
~ Det @ LAL - DET always struggles on the west coast but I think LAL is falling back to there old Kobe ways...stand and wtach Kobe......
Thursday, November 09, 2006
Thursday NBA thoughts -
Last nite was so-so but a positive one nontheless.
Plays-
Under 213.5 -105 Dallas (7x)
Over 195.5 -110 Golden State(5x)
Golden State ML-118 (4x)
Suns -4 -102 (lean) passed
Over 183 -105 Chicago (6x) Win
Team Totals-
Under 102.5 -106 Mavs (1.5x)
2nd H
Warriors ML -126 (1x)
CBB Plays (1-0 +2.00 YTD)-
Alcorn State +30.5 -105 (2x) L
StBonnies -4 -120 (2x) L
Thoughts-
~Bulls @ Cavs- Offseason additions of PJ Brown and Ben Wallace have improved this team defensively but still not addressed there need for a go to scorer IMO. Who takes the big shot on this team? Who wants to take the big shot? From what I have seen CHI really hasnt improved much they beat Miami in the opener and Milw. Well the Heat look like shit so far with or w/o Shaq and Bucks blew there load on opening nite winning in DET. Chi lost a squeaker to Sacramento at home and got trounced following there win in Miami down in orlando. To me a good team wouldnt be so flat off a big win. Cle has killed themselves at the FT line this year. They defeated Wash in the opener but missed half there FTs making the Final look closerthen it should have been. They broke there drought in SA by winning SU there last Friday. However they followed it up by losing a close game in Charlotte the next day where again FTs were an issue. Then they come home and you think everything wil be okay but they lose to ATL in OT. They blew a DD lead with about 8 minutes to play. They made only 8 of 18 FTs in the 4th Q and OT and struggled mightily throught from the charity stripe. So Cle hasnt looked good but IMO primarily due to there inabilities to hit FTs which could be corrected easily IMO.
The Cavs own the Bulls winning all 4 last year and this is a home team dominanted series. Hoping this line gets cheaper but thinking about Cle here and the over.
~Dallas @ Suns -Dallas is really clueless right now and the Suns cant finish a game off. Despite the poor records I would say the Suns are playing much better then Dallas right now just getting killed by a tough schedule. With Dallas continuing to struggle on Offense and Suns off an exhausting OT effort vs the Spurs I saw a much lower scoring game then anticipated. Suns played 4 in 5 nites then get a few days off but play a tough OT game last nite and had to travel back home. Dallas has scored more then 91 just once in 4 games and Howard is no OUT for awhile with Stackhouse starting. My big concern is both teams allow high opposing FG percentages and 31 FT attempts per. Hope people saw my heads uplast nite on the total down to the 209 area now
~NO @ GS - Really like GS here but Richardson is now listed as questionable along with Pietrus and Diogui being banged up and questionable. This is like so many others a home dominanted series but NO wins have all been narrow including Tuesdays 4 pt win vs GS. The Warriors could have been flat playing there 4th game in 5 nites but they came to play. Really like the Over here as it is lower in Golden State then it was in NO on Tuesday...195.5 here to 198 there. Really GS shot better then NO did except from the 3 pt area (7/25 vs 6/15) which left GS 30/55 from inside the arc vs NO 32/74. Richardson wasnt much of a factor either with Monta Ellis and Anthony Roberson picking up the slack. So basically the Hornets have improved from last season with the continued emergence of Paul and West plus adding Peja and Bobby Jackson. Waiting on injury updates before I decide.
~Friday early looks Charlotte -1 but can be patient with this line. Playing Over 199.5 -115 Atl @ Toronto. Looking at Tor -4.5 , NO -3 and over 199 Utah...
Last nite was so-so but a positive one nontheless.
Plays-
Under 213.5 -105 Dallas (7x)
Over 195.5 -110 Golden State(5x)
Golden State ML-118 (4x)
Suns -4 -102 (lean) passed
Over 183 -105 Chicago (6x) Win
Team Totals-
Under 102.5 -106 Mavs (1.5x)
2nd H
Warriors ML -126 (1x)
CBB Plays (1-0 +2.00 YTD)-
Alcorn State +30.5 -105 (2x) L
StBonnies -4 -120 (2x) L
Thoughts-
~Bulls @ Cavs- Offseason additions of PJ Brown and Ben Wallace have improved this team defensively but still not addressed there need for a go to scorer IMO. Who takes the big shot on this team? Who wants to take the big shot? From what I have seen CHI really hasnt improved much they beat Miami in the opener and Milw. Well the Heat look like shit so far with or w/o Shaq and Bucks blew there load on opening nite winning in DET. Chi lost a squeaker to Sacramento at home and got trounced following there win in Miami down in orlando. To me a good team wouldnt be so flat off a big win. Cle has killed themselves at the FT line this year. They defeated Wash in the opener but missed half there FTs making the Final look closerthen it should have been. They broke there drought in SA by winning SU there last Friday. However they followed it up by losing a close game in Charlotte the next day where again FTs were an issue. Then they come home and you think everything wil be okay but they lose to ATL in OT. They blew a DD lead with about 8 minutes to play. They made only 8 of 18 FTs in the 4th Q and OT and struggled mightily throught from the charity stripe. So Cle hasnt looked good but IMO primarily due to there inabilities to hit FTs which could be corrected easily IMO.
The Cavs own the Bulls winning all 4 last year and this is a home team dominanted series. Hoping this line gets cheaper but thinking about Cle here and the over.
~Dallas @ Suns -Dallas is really clueless right now and the Suns cant finish a game off. Despite the poor records I would say the Suns are playing much better then Dallas right now just getting killed by a tough schedule. With Dallas continuing to struggle on Offense and Suns off an exhausting OT effort vs the Spurs I saw a much lower scoring game then anticipated. Suns played 4 in 5 nites then get a few days off but play a tough OT game last nite and had to travel back home. Dallas has scored more then 91 just once in 4 games and Howard is no OUT for awhile with Stackhouse starting. My big concern is both teams allow high opposing FG percentages and 31 FT attempts per. Hope people saw my heads uplast nite on the total down to the 209 area now
~NO @ GS - Really like GS here but Richardson is now listed as questionable along with Pietrus and Diogui being banged up and questionable. This is like so many others a home dominanted series but NO wins have all been narrow including Tuesdays 4 pt win vs GS. The Warriors could have been flat playing there 4th game in 5 nites but they came to play. Really like the Over here as it is lower in Golden State then it was in NO on Tuesday...195.5 here to 198 there. Really GS shot better then NO did except from the 3 pt area (7/25 vs 6/15) which left GS 30/55 from inside the arc vs NO 32/74. Richardson wasnt much of a factor either with Monta Ellis and Anthony Roberson picking up the slack. So basically the Hornets have improved from last season with the continued emergence of Paul and West plus adding Peja and Bobby Jackson. Waiting on injury updates before I decide.
~Friday early looks Charlotte -1 but can be patient with this line. Playing Over 199.5 -115 Atl @ Toronto. Looking at Tor -4.5 , NO -3 and over 199 Utah...
Week 11 CFB
This Weeks Plays:
Weekday-
Under 54 -110 Toledo (2x) Win
Under 52 -110 Rutgers & Louisville (4x) Loss & Und 27-120 & 2nd H (2x) Win
Rutgers +7.5 -115 (8x) Win ML +209(1x) Win RU +3 -120 & 2nd H (2x) Win
Under 50 -110 BYU / Wyoming (3x) Loss & Und 22.5 -111 2nd H (1x) Loss
Under 48 -110 Cent Mich / West Mich (3x) middle Over 46-109 (3x) late change xxx
Under 53 -120 UAB (3x) PUSH (middled the wrong one I guess)
2nd H +3 -128 (2x) UTEP Win
Team totals
Under Lville 28.5 -110 (1.5x) W
Over 14 -140 Buffalo (1.5x) W
Under 59.5 -110 Minnesota & Mich State (3x) Win +3.
Michigan State +3 -120 (8x) Loss -9.6
North Carolina +14 -115 (3x) Win +3.
Teaser Purdue +9 / Under 53 (3x) Loss -3.60
Purdue +141 ML (1.5x) Win +2.11
Iowa +1.5 -102 (5x) ML +118 (5x) Loss (ouch ) -10.10
Auburn -11.5 -105 (3x) Loss -3.05
West Virginia -17 -110 (5x) Win+5.00
Over 59 -109 Baylor & Okl State (3x) Win +3.00
Over 51.5 -110 East Car & Marshall (3x) Win+3.
Over 51.5 -139 Vandy (3x) middled Under 55 -110 (1.5x) Win +1.50
Kentucky ML -115 (5x) Win +5.00
Over 53 -114 Tulane (5x)
Over 56-105 Rice & Tulsa (3x)
Smu +3.5 -108 (3x) ML +141 (1x)
Northwestern +23.5 -110 (3x)
South Carolina (buy) +14 -120 (3x) middled Fla -12-105 (3x)
Over 44 -110 Florida (3x)
Indiana +19.5 -110 (3x)
Over 51 Ind -110 (3x)
Arizona+14 -107 (3x)
Neb ML -114 (3x) ML -110 (2x)
Over 54 -102 Notre Dame (5x)
Nevada -16.5 -117 1st Half (3x)
New Mex +7.5 -110 (3x)
Under 58 -105 San Jose State (3x)
San Jose +14 -110 (3x)
Oregon State ML -122 (3x)
BC 1st H -17 -104 (3x)
Under 53 -111 Oklahoma(5x)
Tex Tech +9 -110 (3x)
Under 47 -105 Arkansas (3x)
Bama +18.5 -111 (3x)
Over 39.5 LSU (lean)
UCF +1 -105 (5x)
Kansas State +17.5 -116 (3x) middle w/ Texas waiting
Penn State 1st H -20.5 -122 (2x)
Over 24 -105 1st H BC (2x)
ASU ML -105(3x)
Hawaii -21 1st H -115 (3x)
Under 77-110 (3x)
FSU -5 -105 1st H (2x)
Team Totals-(all 1x unless noted)
Under 0.5 +254 Temple
Over 36.5 -119 BC
Over 24.5 -119 KentuckyWin
Over 30.5 -117 Navy Win
Under 14.5 Georgia -118 Loss
Over 10.5 +103 Alabama
Under 10.5 -130 Stanford
Under 30.5 -116 Minnesota Loss
Over 27.5 -132 Mich State Loss
Over 32.5 -105 Notre Dame
Over 15.5 -115 Zona
Under 35.5 -108 Boise State
Over 24 -108 Pittsburgh
Under 17.5 -108 UNLV
Teasers
FSU , Notre Dame , South Fla (4x)
Auburn -1.5 , Utah , -1.5 , ND , -1 (3x) L
ML Parlay
Ark ML -222 & FSU -330 (3x)
2nd H
Over 25.5 -114 Kentucky (2x) W
Tulane +151 ML (1x)
Thoughts-
~ Louisville @ RU - If you look at stats and boxscores it will probably leave you hard pressed to see the value in Rutgers. I for one complained about there incredibily easy early season schedule. What really changed my opinion is how they played @ Pitt. Before that game Tyler Palko had been playing some real solid ball along with the rest of his tyeam since the Mich State game. RU ran right over them and shut down there pasing game. When it came time for Teel to do something he made a few plays late. Rutgers isnt bringing sexy back by any means. There playing good hard nosed , fundamental football. Tonite is the biggest game in the past 20 or so years for this program sort of like it was for Louisville last week. Thats a key diffference as last week Louisville was the team with all that energy behind them and tonite they will be fcaing that team. Also note Lville hasnt really had a tough road game. Its biggest test was Syracuse and while one could argue they used a vanilla playbook before WVU it really was significantly better talentwise. They didnt score till about 5 minutes before the half and the 28-13 final saw Kolby Smith run on ein with about a minute to play to ice the game. The Dome is a tough place to play but you gotta believe tonite will be alot tougher. Louisville allowed four 80+ yards TD drives something WVU really hadnt been doing. They had really benefited from short fields combined with there speed to get quick scores. So I could see RU grinding it out vs this defense with Ray Rice and Bryan Leonard. On offense last week Lville agianst what I would call a so-so defense had struggles putting the ball in the end zone with 3 short Fgs. It will only getharder here especially on the road. They benefited from momentum plays to open the 3rd Q a Slayton fumble returned for a TD and a short punt returned for a TD. The talent edge is on Lville side but they have been inconsistent on offense and IMO unproven on the road.
I fully expect a low scoring grind it out type game here. The way I see it Lville probably should only be about a FG fav here. However offense is sexy and so is points thats where RU comes up short in the image department. The Lville offense wasnt as explosive as made out to be last week IMO and that was a home game not a road game. No one believed( I did) in Lville last week at home but by beating a WVU team that had one quality win (Georgia in the Bowl last year) they suddenly become national contender material...I dont see it.
~ Buff @ Akron - I would like to fade Buffalo off abig home upset and Akron off a flat game vs BG. However with the new QB I think its best to stay away from a side despite my Akron lean. I am truly disappointed I missed the total would have loved to play the over @ 44.5 even 46 but now at 50 its way past where I saw value.
~ Wyoming @ BYU - I think Wyoming can hang here. There defense especially versus the pass has been solid enough granted they havent played a team like BYU. There offense has struggled on the road at places like UVA and TCU but suprisingly moved the ball @ Syracuse. Look for Wyoming to attempt control TOP and run the ball. Doesnt appear to be an ideal situation weather wise to throw the ball. Wyoming has not won @ NYU since 1987 needs a W to bvecome bowl eligible. Just looking for more info on this game...
~ WMU @CMU - While the offenses have improved its mainly IMO due to competition. With West mich struggling lately I think there is some value in them. With this number now dropping I may look to middle though as this how 24-21 (23-20)written all over it. The only WMU road game that saw any offense was when they played @ Ball State which is self explanatory.
~ UTEP @ UAB - Clearly UTEP is the better team here and dsperate for a win but that lackluster effort vs Rice scares me. UAB IMO hasnt played well at home losing to Marshall , beating a horrible Memphis team by 6 , losing in OT To Miss State, and beating Troy(big deal) and a solid 5 pt win vs ECU. Like alot of this midweek games again I like the Under since UAB has had trouble on offense...
Comments to come.........
Noon starts -
~ Minny @ Mich State - last home games for the Spartans against a Minny team 0-4 on the road who hasnt been able to score away . You could say Mich State has quit but I will say if they quit why did Purdue need a late FG to pull out the win last week? Stanton's last home game I believe. Minny has wins at home agaisnt Temple , ND State , and now Indiana....simple overreaction to Minny exploding last week.
~ Purdue @ Ill - The Illini playing better and Purdue is inconsisntent but not sure they deserve to be 3 pt dogs. Ill only has the 3 pt win @ Mich State really to speak off and that was the week after the ND historic comeback on them. They blew a lead to Indiana , losy to Ohio U and Cuse at home...a close game to flat Ohio State team....weighing on bettors minds.. Illinois 5-0 ATS catching 17 or more but 0-4 in other roles...
~ GT @ UNC - Never a big fan of GT as fav since the have proven to be inconsistent in the Ball ERA. However I think UNC has shown some improvement the past 2 games and they hung with GT last year. Dailey is the key here...
~Cincy @ WVU- Think people are down on WVU after the Ville game. However now that Ville has been defeated this game is HUGE for them as they still face Rutgers to end the season. Cincy has played some great defense but WVU speed kills and they IMO wont score enough to cover. Remember that Cincy caught 25 @ Ville earlier and played well but they wont be sneaking up on anyone now. WVU handled them 38-0 on the road last year. Mountaineers are rested and while they may be down hopefully the timeoff combined with Rutgers upsetting Louisville helps them refocus.
~Wisky @ Iowa - Iowa won the past 4 years in this series including in Madison last season. This is senior day @ Iowa and Stocco if he plays will be hurting with a seperated shoulder and brusied ribs. Just think its a grat situational play after Iowa lost SU at home to Northwestern. Logic tells you how can you take Iowa here BUT you have to BUY low always and Wisky really hasnt beaten anyone to speak of...okay Penn State buttell me how the Lions are gonna wina road game with taht offense? You cant so not that impressive.......
~Baylor @ Oklahoma State - If Bell was healthy I would play this heavier. The Bears will again be exposed by the Ok State air attack and should score enough versus a medicore defene that has had it sown issues.
~Georgia @ Auburn - Third consecutive SEC road game for the DAWGS is not a good spot. Auburn has some banged up starts but they will play. Dont see Georgia breaking 14 pts here..
~ Vandy @ Kentucky - Simply like Kentucky being able to win 2 close SEC games and pulling off an upset then follwoing it up with another home game. Kentucky was able to win @ vandy last year.
~ Houston @ SMU - The Cougars have some impressive wins but on the road they lost So Miss and only beat Rice by 1 in the opener. Willis has a 20-4 TD/Int ratio and the mustangs are sneaking up on people......
~ Ohio State @ Nwestern - We all know whats on deck....Michigan vs ohio State so fading both a week before
~ Cal @ Arizona- Probably a bad decision but a PAC 10 game with a 2 TD home dog...
~ Neb @ A&M - Think A&M will be down here after a close loss. Nebraska redeemed themselves smokingMissouri. A&M cant throw enough to exploit the NEB defensive weakness.
This Weeks Plays:
Weekday-
Under 54 -110 Toledo (2x) Win
Under 52 -110 Rutgers & Louisville (4x) Loss & Und 27-120 & 2nd H (2x) Win
Rutgers +7.5 -115 (8x) Win ML +209(1x) Win RU +3 -120 & 2nd H (2x) Win
Under 50 -110 BYU / Wyoming (3x) Loss & Und 22.5 -111 2nd H (1x) Loss
Under 48 -110 Cent Mich / West Mich (3x) middle Over 46-109 (3x) late change xxx
Under 53 -120 UAB (3x) PUSH (middled the wrong one I guess)
2nd H +3 -128 (2x) UTEP Win
Team totals
Under Lville 28.5 -110 (1.5x) W
Over 14 -140 Buffalo (1.5x) W
Under 59.5 -110 Minnesota & Mich State (3x) Win +3.
Michigan State +3 -120 (8x) Loss -9.6
North Carolina +14 -115 (3x) Win +3.
Teaser Purdue +9 / Under 53 (3x) Loss -3.60
Purdue +141 ML (1.5x) Win +2.11
Iowa +1.5 -102 (5x) ML +118 (5x) Loss (ouch ) -10.10
Auburn -11.5 -105 (3x) Loss -3.05
West Virginia -17 -110 (5x) Win+5.00
Over 59 -109 Baylor & Okl State (3x) Win +3.00
Over 51.5 -110 East Car & Marshall (3x) Win+3.
Over 51.5 -139 Vandy (3x) middled Under 55 -110 (1.5x) Win +1.50
Kentucky ML -115 (5x) Win +5.00
Over 53 -114 Tulane (5x)
Over 56-105 Rice & Tulsa (3x)
Smu +3.5 -108 (3x) ML +141 (1x)
Northwestern +23.5 -110 (3x)
South Carolina (buy) +14 -120 (3x) middled Fla -12-105 (3x)
Over 44 -110 Florida (3x)
Indiana +19.5 -110 (3x)
Over 51 Ind -110 (3x)
Arizona+14 -107 (3x)
Neb ML -114 (3x) ML -110 (2x)
Over 54 -102 Notre Dame (5x)
Nevada -16.5 -117 1st Half (3x)
New Mex +7.5 -110 (3x)
Under 58 -105 San Jose State (3x)
San Jose +14 -110 (3x)
Oregon State ML -122 (3x)
BC 1st H -17 -104 (3x)
Under 53 -111 Oklahoma(5x)
Tex Tech +9 -110 (3x)
Under 47 -105 Arkansas (3x)
Bama +18.5 -111 (3x)
Over 39.5 LSU (lean)
UCF +1 -105 (5x)
Kansas State +17.5 -116 (3x) middle w/ Texas waiting
Penn State 1st H -20.5 -122 (2x)
Over 24 -105 1st H BC (2x)
ASU ML -105(3x)
Hawaii -21 1st H -115 (3x)
Under 77-110 (3x)
FSU -5 -105 1st H (2x)
Team Totals-(all 1x unless noted)
Under 0.5 +254 Temple
Over 36.5 -119 BC
Over 24.5 -119 KentuckyWin
Over 30.5 -117 Navy Win
Under 14.5 Georgia -118 Loss
Over 10.5 +103 Alabama
Under 10.5 -130 Stanford
Under 30.5 -116 Minnesota Loss
Over 27.5 -132 Mich State Loss
Over 32.5 -105 Notre Dame
Over 15.5 -115 Zona
Under 35.5 -108 Boise State
Over 24 -108 Pittsburgh
Under 17.5 -108 UNLV
Teasers
FSU , Notre Dame , South Fla (4x)
Auburn -1.5 , Utah , -1.5 , ND , -1 (3x) L
ML Parlay
Ark ML -222 & FSU -330 (3x)
2nd H
Over 25.5 -114 Kentucky (2x) W
Tulane +151 ML (1x)
Thoughts-
~ Louisville @ RU - If you look at stats and boxscores it will probably leave you hard pressed to see the value in Rutgers. I for one complained about there incredibily easy early season schedule. What really changed my opinion is how they played @ Pitt. Before that game Tyler Palko had been playing some real solid ball along with the rest of his tyeam since the Mich State game. RU ran right over them and shut down there pasing game. When it came time for Teel to do something he made a few plays late. Rutgers isnt bringing sexy back by any means. There playing good hard nosed , fundamental football. Tonite is the biggest game in the past 20 or so years for this program sort of like it was for Louisville last week. Thats a key diffference as last week Louisville was the team with all that energy behind them and tonite they will be fcaing that team. Also note Lville hasnt really had a tough road game. Its biggest test was Syracuse and while one could argue they used a vanilla playbook before WVU it really was significantly better talentwise. They didnt score till about 5 minutes before the half and the 28-13 final saw Kolby Smith run on ein with about a minute to play to ice the game. The Dome is a tough place to play but you gotta believe tonite will be alot tougher. Louisville allowed four 80+ yards TD drives something WVU really hadnt been doing. They had really benefited from short fields combined with there speed to get quick scores. So I could see RU grinding it out vs this defense with Ray Rice and Bryan Leonard. On offense last week Lville agianst what I would call a so-so defense had struggles putting the ball in the end zone with 3 short Fgs. It will only getharder here especially on the road. They benefited from momentum plays to open the 3rd Q a Slayton fumble returned for a TD and a short punt returned for a TD. The talent edge is on Lville side but they have been inconsistent on offense and IMO unproven on the road.
I fully expect a low scoring grind it out type game here. The way I see it Lville probably should only be about a FG fav here. However offense is sexy and so is points thats where RU comes up short in the image department. The Lville offense wasnt as explosive as made out to be last week IMO and that was a home game not a road game. No one believed( I did) in Lville last week at home but by beating a WVU team that had one quality win (Georgia in the Bowl last year) they suddenly become national contender material...I dont see it.
~ Buff @ Akron - I would like to fade Buffalo off abig home upset and Akron off a flat game vs BG. However with the new QB I think its best to stay away from a side despite my Akron lean. I am truly disappointed I missed the total would have loved to play the over @ 44.5 even 46 but now at 50 its way past where I saw value.
~ Wyoming @ BYU - I think Wyoming can hang here. There defense especially versus the pass has been solid enough granted they havent played a team like BYU. There offense has struggled on the road at places like UVA and TCU but suprisingly moved the ball @ Syracuse. Look for Wyoming to attempt control TOP and run the ball. Doesnt appear to be an ideal situation weather wise to throw the ball. Wyoming has not won @ NYU since 1987 needs a W to bvecome bowl eligible. Just looking for more info on this game...
~ WMU @CMU - While the offenses have improved its mainly IMO due to competition. With West mich struggling lately I think there is some value in them. With this number now dropping I may look to middle though as this how 24-21 (23-20)written all over it. The only WMU road game that saw any offense was when they played @ Ball State which is self explanatory.
~ UTEP @ UAB - Clearly UTEP is the better team here and dsperate for a win but that lackluster effort vs Rice scares me. UAB IMO hasnt played well at home losing to Marshall , beating a horrible Memphis team by 6 , losing in OT To Miss State, and beating Troy(big deal) and a solid 5 pt win vs ECU. Like alot of this midweek games again I like the Under since UAB has had trouble on offense...
Comments to come.........
Noon starts -
~ Minny @ Mich State - last home games for the Spartans against a Minny team 0-4 on the road who hasnt been able to score away . You could say Mich State has quit but I will say if they quit why did Purdue need a late FG to pull out the win last week? Stanton's last home game I believe. Minny has wins at home agaisnt Temple , ND State , and now Indiana....simple overreaction to Minny exploding last week.
~ Purdue @ Ill - The Illini playing better and Purdue is inconsisntent but not sure they deserve to be 3 pt dogs. Ill only has the 3 pt win @ Mich State really to speak off and that was the week after the ND historic comeback on them. They blew a lead to Indiana , losy to Ohio U and Cuse at home...a close game to flat Ohio State team....weighing on bettors minds.. Illinois 5-0 ATS catching 17 or more but 0-4 in other roles...
~ GT @ UNC - Never a big fan of GT as fav since the have proven to be inconsistent in the Ball ERA. However I think UNC has shown some improvement the past 2 games and they hung with GT last year. Dailey is the key here...
~Cincy @ WVU- Think people are down on WVU after the Ville game. However now that Ville has been defeated this game is HUGE for them as they still face Rutgers to end the season. Cincy has played some great defense but WVU speed kills and they IMO wont score enough to cover. Remember that Cincy caught 25 @ Ville earlier and played well but they wont be sneaking up on anyone now. WVU handled them 38-0 on the road last year. Mountaineers are rested and while they may be down hopefully the timeoff combined with Rutgers upsetting Louisville helps them refocus.
~Wisky @ Iowa - Iowa won the past 4 years in this series including in Madison last season. This is senior day @ Iowa and Stocco if he plays will be hurting with a seperated shoulder and brusied ribs. Just think its a grat situational play after Iowa lost SU at home to Northwestern. Logic tells you how can you take Iowa here BUT you have to BUY low always and Wisky really hasnt beaten anyone to speak of...okay Penn State buttell me how the Lions are gonna wina road game with taht offense? You cant so not that impressive.......
~Baylor @ Oklahoma State - If Bell was healthy I would play this heavier. The Bears will again be exposed by the Ok State air attack and should score enough versus a medicore defene that has had it sown issues.
~Georgia @ Auburn - Third consecutive SEC road game for the DAWGS is not a good spot. Auburn has some banged up starts but they will play. Dont see Georgia breaking 14 pts here..
~ Vandy @ Kentucky - Simply like Kentucky being able to win 2 close SEC games and pulling off an upset then follwoing it up with another home game. Kentucky was able to win @ vandy last year.
~ Houston @ SMU - The Cougars have some impressive wins but on the road they lost So Miss and only beat Rice by 1 in the opener. Willis has a 20-4 TD/Int ratio and the mustangs are sneaking up on people......
~ Ohio State @ Nwestern - We all know whats on deck....Michigan vs ohio State so fading both a week before
~ Cal @ Arizona- Probably a bad decision but a PAC 10 game with a 2 TD home dog...
~ Neb @ A&M - Think A&M will be down here after a close loss. Nebraska redeemed themselves smokingMissouri. A&M cant throw enough to exploit the NEB defensive weakness.
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
The NFL Week 10 Sunday November 12th
Plays: (have few to write about)
Under 39.5 -110 Chicago Bears /NY Giants (10x)
Bears +3.5 -135 (5x)
NY Jets +10.5 109 (5x)
Bengals +1.5 -105 (5x) and Bengals +100 ML (3x)
Over 48 -105 Sand Diego (5x)
Chiefs ML +120 ( 5x)
Jaguars -10 -103 (3x)
Browns +9.5 -117 (4x)
Over 42 -102 Atlanta (4x)
Titans +9.5 -127 (5x)
Saints +6 is not a play with Horn out
Eagles -6.5-120 (5x)
Cardinals +7.5 -120 (7x)
bills +12 -105 (3x)
Packers +5.5 -110 (3x)
Thoughts-
~Chi@ NYG - The injuries have piled up in this game but the important ones IMO are going unnoticed. The main reason CHI has been able to stretch the field this season is the emergence of WR Berrian. He will not play on Sunday nite. For NY already dealing with a banged up Plaxico who missed the Texans game they just learned Toomer is done for the year. I was already all over this total and had played it before learning of this injury. The NYG defense is going to missing three DE's it appears Strahan , Umenyora , and Tuck. Arrington is already done for theyear @ LB plus Short missed last week and so has Sam Madison. For CHI Urlacher got hurt and is questionable but I think he plays. They also already lost Mike Brown for the season. It was NOT there defense that cost them vs Miami but the repeated turnovers of the offense.
I just dont see this offenses consistently moving the ball as they both will have gameplans heavily reliant on the run. The offense has not played well on the road. Go back to the opener vs a young GB team they put up 26 but had 4 FGS , a punt return and a great circus catch for a TD by Berrian. Against Minny the scored 19 but again 4 FGS and TD thanks to a late taylor fumble that gave them a real short field , we know about the offense @ Arizona...zilch! Even this week one TD was off a Harrington pick that gaveChi momentum and they marched downfield.
NY at home has score 21 vs Indy , 19 vs Wash , 17 vs TB despite good starting field position and only 14 last week vs Houston(only allowed 26 , 3 , 3 , and 10). The weather should be in the low 30's and if the wind is howling @ the Meadowlands it will be freezing!!!!(trust me) . Without much of a passing game Chi will struggle to move the ball versus a NYG defense that allows 3.1 YPC against a Bears O who averages 2.7YPC away. NY will have to rely on Jacobs and Barber who avg 4.7 YPC at hoem against CHI D at 3.1 YPC but remember Ronnie brown found success against them. Wind at nite could also be interesting whne it comes to FG kicking......
~ NYJ @ NE - The Pats will be w/o safety Rodney Harrison here . With the emergence of Leon Washington the Jets go into this with arunning game something they didnt have in the 1st meeting. Pennington was able to move the ball late but the game was basically decided already. With Harrison missing it should be easier this time around even in NE. The Pats for some reason have not played well at home : close 2 pt win vs Buffalo , a loss to Denver 17-7 , a 10 pt win that was much closer then the final to Miami and the Indy loss...very strange...while the Jets havent played that bad away winning @ Tenny , @ Buffalo , losing a heartbreaker in Cleveland and the annihilation @ Jax. Other divisonal rivals like Miami and Buffalo competed in NE cant see why NYJ cant here. Thinking over here as NE should score about 24...
~ SD @ Cincy - The Bengals are fading BUT the SD defense has so many injuries it doesnt warrant IMO being favored. This should be a shootout for sure. Basically I see this as Cincy -1 here not +1. SD has lost @ KC and @ Baltimore but won @ SF and @ Oakland....yeah they dont have a quality road win. They have the erly start factor and I think Cincy let it all out after the BALT game. You cant tell me these guys dont care...TJ with the helmut toss and Palmer chewing out Henry. This team should have a better attitude and focus here. The SD defense has shown holes allowing 79 pts past 3 and even allowed 19 1st H points @ SF ...
~ Skins @ Eagles - The Skins won a fluke game thanks tomany Dallas miscues . What hasnt improved is the Skins defense as it ranks near the bottom in pass defense..they went to Troy Vincent at safety and Springs and Rogers are both playing now, tough to say if they are 100% though. Enter a Eagle team off 3 consecutive losses , a home loss and a bye week which they are 7-0 under Reid the following week. Wash could be w/o Moss again and now Lloyd is hobbled as well. Skins havent looked well @ Indy , Dallas or NYG. Skins just wont score enough and the Eagles want revenge for the Skins sweep last season.
~ Balt @ Tenn - The return of Steve McNair! Tenny playe d awful @ Jax but it followed a run of some solid games and the Titan defense was missing soe key players including Pac Man Jones. The Ravens offense really hasnt done much more since booting Jim Fassel. Its tsill there defense setting up there offense. Now we have Heap , Ray-Ray and Ed Reed listed as questionable. ravens are tough as hell to run on but they can be thrwon on to bad Vince Young hasnt really found that part of his game. Just looking for a scrappy game that is somewhere around 17-13 or 20-14...made this play as soon as I saw it @ +9.5 that was ridiculous. ravens are 4-11 ATS away and 0-4 last 4 as road chalk while DOG is 12-3 in the series. So I still see an struggling Ravens offense which makes this a big number to cover.
~
Plays: (have few to write about)
Under 39.5 -110 Chicago Bears /NY Giants (10x)
Bears +3.5 -135 (5x)
NY Jets +10.5 109 (5x)
Bengals +1.5 -105 (5x) and Bengals +100 ML (3x)
Over 48 -105 Sand Diego (5x)
Chiefs ML +120 ( 5x)
Jaguars -10 -103 (3x)
Browns +9.5 -117 (4x)
Over 42 -102 Atlanta (4x)
Titans +9.5 -127 (5x)
Saints +6 is not a play with Horn out
Eagles -6.5-120 (5x)
Cardinals +7.5 -120 (7x)
bills +12 -105 (3x)
Packers +5.5 -110 (3x)
Thoughts-
~Chi@ NYG - The injuries have piled up in this game but the important ones IMO are going unnoticed. The main reason CHI has been able to stretch the field this season is the emergence of WR Berrian. He will not play on Sunday nite. For NY already dealing with a banged up Plaxico who missed the Texans game they just learned Toomer is done for the year. I was already all over this total and had played it before learning of this injury. The NYG defense is going to missing three DE's it appears Strahan , Umenyora , and Tuck. Arrington is already done for theyear @ LB plus Short missed last week and so has Sam Madison. For CHI Urlacher got hurt and is questionable but I think he plays. They also already lost Mike Brown for the season. It was NOT there defense that cost them vs Miami but the repeated turnovers of the offense.
I just dont see this offenses consistently moving the ball as they both will have gameplans heavily reliant on the run. The offense has not played well on the road. Go back to the opener vs a young GB team they put up 26 but had 4 FGS , a punt return and a great circus catch for a TD by Berrian. Against Minny the scored 19 but again 4 FGS and TD thanks to a late taylor fumble that gave them a real short field , we know about the offense @ Arizona...zilch! Even this week one TD was off a Harrington pick that gaveChi momentum and they marched downfield.
NY at home has score 21 vs Indy , 19 vs Wash , 17 vs TB despite good starting field position and only 14 last week vs Houston(only allowed 26 , 3 , 3 , and 10). The weather should be in the low 30's and if the wind is howling @ the Meadowlands it will be freezing!!!!(trust me) . Without much of a passing game Chi will struggle to move the ball versus a NYG defense that allows 3.1 YPC against a Bears O who averages 2.7YPC away. NY will have to rely on Jacobs and Barber who avg 4.7 YPC at hoem against CHI D at 3.1 YPC but remember Ronnie brown found success against them. Wind at nite could also be interesting whne it comes to FG kicking......
~ NYJ @ NE - The Pats will be w/o safety Rodney Harrison here . With the emergence of Leon Washington the Jets go into this with arunning game something they didnt have in the 1st meeting. Pennington was able to move the ball late but the game was basically decided already. With Harrison missing it should be easier this time around even in NE. The Pats for some reason have not played well at home : close 2 pt win vs Buffalo , a loss to Denver 17-7 , a 10 pt win that was much closer then the final to Miami and the Indy loss...very strange...while the Jets havent played that bad away winning @ Tenny , @ Buffalo , losing a heartbreaker in Cleveland and the annihilation @ Jax. Other divisonal rivals like Miami and Buffalo competed in NE cant see why NYJ cant here. Thinking over here as NE should score about 24...
~ SD @ Cincy - The Bengals are fading BUT the SD defense has so many injuries it doesnt warrant IMO being favored. This should be a shootout for sure. Basically I see this as Cincy -1 here not +1. SD has lost @ KC and @ Baltimore but won @ SF and @ Oakland....yeah they dont have a quality road win. They have the erly start factor and I think Cincy let it all out after the BALT game. You cant tell me these guys dont care...TJ with the helmut toss and Palmer chewing out Henry. This team should have a better attitude and focus here. The SD defense has shown holes allowing 79 pts past 3 and even allowed 19 1st H points @ SF ...
~ Skins @ Eagles - The Skins won a fluke game thanks tomany Dallas miscues . What hasnt improved is the Skins defense as it ranks near the bottom in pass defense..they went to Troy Vincent at safety and Springs and Rogers are both playing now, tough to say if they are 100% though. Enter a Eagle team off 3 consecutive losses , a home loss and a bye week which they are 7-0 under Reid the following week. Wash could be w/o Moss again and now Lloyd is hobbled as well. Skins havent looked well @ Indy , Dallas or NYG. Skins just wont score enough and the Eagles want revenge for the Skins sweep last season.
~ Balt @ Tenn - The return of Steve McNair! Tenny playe d awful @ Jax but it followed a run of some solid games and the Titan defense was missing soe key players including Pac Man Jones. The Ravens offense really hasnt done much more since booting Jim Fassel. Its tsill there defense setting up there offense. Now we have Heap , Ray-Ray and Ed Reed listed as questionable. ravens are tough as hell to run on but they can be thrwon on to bad Vince Young hasnt really found that part of his game. Just looking for a scrappy game that is somewhere around 17-13 or 20-14...made this play as soon as I saw it @ +9.5 that was ridiculous. ravens are 4-11 ATS away and 0-4 last 4 as road chalk while DOG is 12-3 in the series. So I still see an struggling Ravens offense which makes this a big number to cover.
~
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