Friday Thoughts -

Plays ~
Under 188 -104 Indiana (5x) L -5.20
Indiana -4.5 -105 (3x) & Indiana -4.5 -110 (3x) L -6.45
Over 193 -105 Boston (4x) W +4.00
Knicks +9 -110 (3x) W +3.00
Wolves +8 -110 (6x) L -6.60
Wiz +5.5 -109 (3x) L -3.27
Grizz +5.5 -105 (3x) ML +200 (1x) L -4.15
Bulls +8.5 -110 (5x) L -3.00
Philly +7.5 -110 (3x)
Raps +8.5 -121 (3x)
Sonics -131 ML (6x)
Under 203.5 -131 Miami (2x) W +2.00

1st Half

Under 92.5 Dallas -107 (2x) Loss

Under 92 +106 Minny (2x)Win

2nd H
Boston ML -160 (3x)Win
Under 101-108 NYK (1x) Win
Under 94 +102 dallas (2x) Loss
Spurs ML -155 (2.5x) this is to hedge my Bulls 8.5 play Win
Over 107 -105 Seattle (3x)

Thought about middling some of my Minny play and Bulls play but gonna let it ride... Wow Did I fuck up not paying attention to that game in CLE...should have played some Cavs -5.5 2nd H! Poor job by me..... I felt like I was on every sucker play and I had my chances to wiggle out at half but didnt

NCAAB
StJohns +6 -110 (3x) Win
Indiana -14.5 -104 (3x) Loss(blew a 20pt lead)
A&M -14 -105 1st Half (3x) Win
Maryland -5.5 -108 (3x)
Under 76 -108 NM State (3x)

Thoughts -

- NJN @ Ind- the Nets continue to be hit with injuries. The latest is backup PG Marcus Williams who Lawrence Frank called at best questionable tonite. On the Nets off day Nened Kristic went for an MRI on his ailing knee but the results found no damage. Vince should be recovered from the FLU that had him as a game time decision on Tuesday but RJ is still not ready to play. Basically NJ has played Under in its 2 road games and Ind Under in its 3 home games. Last year inthe playoffs these totals were more closer to 180ish. The Pacer offense has struggled for the most part since the opener only topping a 100 @ MSG which as we know is no big accomplishment(sorry Knicks). A little risky playing the fav and the under here since you would expect something along th lines of 94-87 not providing much wiggle room. However NJ has scored only 85 @ Miami and 88 in regulation @ Washington w/0 RJ. This is NJ 4th game in 6 nites which has seen the short handed NJ squad log alot of minutes. If Williams unavailable that leaves a tremendous hole with Antoine Wright already in the starting lineup.


Nets are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win.
Nets are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 Friday games.
Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points

OU Trends
New Jersey
Over is 6-0 in Nets last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Under is 9-2 in Nets last 11 Friday games.
Under is 8-2 in Nets last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 8-2 in Nets last 10 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 7-2 in Nets last 9 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 21-7 in Nets last 28 games as an underdog.
Under is 20-7 in Nets last 27 games as a road underdog.
Over is 8-3 in Nets last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 10-4 in Nets last 14 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 5-2 in Nets last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 5-2 in Nets last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 5-2 in Nets last 7 overall.
Indiana
Under is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Under is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Over is 7-2 in Pacers last 9 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Over is 8-3 in Pacers last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Under is 23-9-1 in Pacers last 33 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 11-5 in Pacers last 16 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 35-16 in Pacers last 51 Friday games

-Por @ Boston - I do think Boston has greatly improved past few games but I wonder if 7.5 is just a tad to high ..maybe 6 or 6.5 here. Boston has only been afvored once recently athome vs Chalotte by 5.5 who took them to OT and lost by two. Portland is this RARE team that seems to do one of two things away since the start of last year. They either LOSE ATS or WIN SU. Its actually quite odd but the trend continues as Portland won SU in its first away game @ SEA then followed it with 4 SU and ATS losses. The Celtics really played well in both meetings last season vs port but is that saying much? Without Roy the Blazers are looking for a second option to Randolph. I do like the fact LaMarcus Aldridge has been promoted into the starting lineup though. Should be a solid game actually ..Blazers have allowed at least 100 in all 5 road games. The scary part is this GAME is littered with UNDER trends so I might at some point change my mind or middle. I have a score of 101-95...

-NYK @ Miami - Basially Shaq or Not , Jason Williams or not I dont like how Miami has playd this season. It might be a tall order for NY here but this is simply a fade of Miami.


- Minny @ Cle - Larry Hughes is Out and Pavlovic might get the start. Whether he played or not I had to jump on this. Minny has played well in spurts this season and rebounded from a losing tsreak with a nice game against PORT. Last year Minny was able to win SU in Cleveland. While its hard to imagine there are again tremendous Under trends here that might warrant a play on the under or 1st H under.

- Was @ Det - Basically a bad spot to fade DET IMO after losing SU to NO. However they face a Wiz squad that beat them SU all 3 times last year. Which make for even more revenge here. With the way DET has played defense the OVER as it continues to fall warrants a look. What concerns me is how poorly these teams actually shot against eachother in the games @ the Palace.

- Dallas @ Mem- The Mavs have owned Memphis recently and that was with Gasol. Despite a recent turnaround in play Dallas still isnt playing anywhere near previous levels or seasons. Memphis inserted Atkins into the starting lineup for Mighty Mouse and both played well. Gay started for the injured Eddie Jones and he also left the game injured so keep an eye on those 2 injuries. Basically despite all MEM struggles they have played faily decent at home while even PORT recently gave Dallas a scare (away). Looking for a low scoring sloppy game that is decided late.

-Chi @ SA - Again could this be another bad spot with SA off ahome OT loss to Charlotte. chi paying B to B and SA third in 4 days. Suprisingly Bulls have covered last 5 in SA but they have all been Double Digit spreads. Road team dominants ATS going 10-1 and SA 5-17 ATS at home .

- Philly @ pho - Took a shot with Nash injured and questionable and Raja Bell Quesytionable...will update on this game later. Also hope to CWebb get some extended minutes tonite after speaking to Billy King.

- Tor @ LAL - Toronto has struggled on the road going 0-3 SU & ATS and even struggled in LA. However since kobe returned LAL IMO has struggled to a degeree...so basic fade play.

- Utah @ Seattle - Sonics struggled in 1st game back versus Philly after long trip but played well vs Utah last year. Here I think AK-47 is missed (Kirilenko). The Sonics actually smoked UTAH in the last 3 meetings last year. Ridinour , Allen and Lewis playing well on offense and Wilcox cleaning up the garbage.