NFL Week 11 Thoughts

Plays -
New York Jets +7.5 -120 (8x) ML +270 (1x) Loss
Oakland +10 -111(8x) ML +425 (1/2x) Win
Broncos ML -128 (10x) SD +3 -105 (4x)late hedge cause T.Bell was inactive
Dallas +1.5 -110 (8x) ML +100 (5x) Win
SF +4.5 +100 (5x) ML +210 (1x) Win
Ravens -3-110 (3x) Win
Minny +3.5 -108 (3x) ML +178 (1x) Loss
Browns +4.5 -110 (4x) ML +182 (1x) Win
Rams +7 -115 (5x) Loss
Bills +3 -113 (4x) ML +139 (2x) win
Eagles -12.5 -110 (3x) changed my mind Loss
Cardinals ML -125 (5x) Win

3 strong leans -
TB -3 -105
NO -3.5 ++
NE -5.5


Totals
Over 49 -123 Cincy (5x) & Under 52 -110 (5x)
Over 41 +102 Denver & SD (5x) uND 43 -116 (2X) HEDGE DUE TO t.BELL INACTIVE
Under 17.5 -111 KC 1st Half (3x) Loss
Under 44.5 -110 Philly (3x) Win
Over 43.5 -110 Carolina (3x) Loss
Under 37 -115 Houston (3x) Loss
Under 34 -110 TB (5x) Loss
Under 40-110 Chicago (7x) Win

Team Totals
Under 23 -111 KC 92x) W
Over 23.5 -127 Dallas (2x) L
Under 20.5 -108 Pitt (1x) L

2nd Half -
Under 19 -110 KC (6x) Win
Pitt -3 -115 (1.5x) small hedge Win
Under 20 -105 Hou (2x) changed my mind - NO PLAY
Over 17 -114 Miami (3x) Win
Ravens -3 -115 (2x) Win
Bear -3-108 (3x) hedge Win
Saints -3 -116 (2x) again changed my mind Loss
Pats PK -113 (2x ) No Favre possibly in the 2nd H? Win
Under 20 -120 NE (2x) Win
Over 24 -128 Siants (2x) Win
Eagles -5.5 -106 (3x) Loss
Ov 19.5 -120 SF (2x) Loss
Over 24.5 -124 Indy (5x) Win

NCAAB

Over 76 Zona 1st H -104 (3x)W

Kansas -15.5 1st H -115(3x)W (layub with 8 secs left to lead by 17!!

Und 142 -116 StL (probably will hedge at half if possible) A&M leads 34-13 @ H...NO HEDGE

Notre dame 1st H -15 -119 (3x) W

NBA
Lakers -2.5 -110 (3x)
Spurs -2 -118 (5x)
Spurs 2nd H ML -128 (5x)

Lean towards both unders...not sure if or how I play it. Waiting till half in LA though for a total ida...

The 1 PM halftime comments-
Well Pats leading 21-0 athalftime is a kick in the balls but I hope they contineu there dominance regardless. Minny cant stop the pass and Big Ben passing to the wrong team (again) but hope that continues. Sainst doing everything humanly possibly to lose with 3 turnovers should have just went into teh half tied but since I am momentum guy I wont play TB or NO 2nd Half due to teh fact they both threw picks rightbefore thehalf taking points off the board.

StL @ Car - Just what should we expect from STL with 2 key injuries. Car looked unimpressive to me versus TB. Basically Car tends to be a bad fav and STL should find ways to score here so I took a shot with +7...scary part is injury to Fisher I think Pace is a loss but not as bad as Fisher

Cincy @ NO- Not sure of Cincy s mindset here after the collapse. Both teams have serious issues on defense which could make the hook valuable . I have looked at this game up and down. The Sainsts as a fav are risky as they failed two in laying -1 versus Balt and failed to cover -3.5 vs TB. The Saints D has struggled since losing Roman Harper @ safety. Out side of that injury though NO comes in relatively healthy. My question is what are the book strying to do with this line? It just seems with the HOOK they are begging youto play Cincy. With Cincy its all about the INJURIES IMO. Already down 3 LBs this year they have 2 on the injury list this week but Brooks is Probable. On the OL Willie Anderson will play but they have lost Brahm, Jones and now Bennie Anderson last week! In the secondary it appears Delthea O'Neal will not play and Dexter Jackson is listed as questionable. Teams have run on NO but Cincy has failed to let Rudi do his thing this year and now with a banged up OL it might not be possible. The Sainst played poorly verus Balt which is a top notch defense see the 2 defensive scores but rebounded and went to TB and smoked them. Then they went head to head , nearly shot for shot @ pitt with a desperate Steelers team and Joe Horn on the sidelines. Truth is I think fundamentally 3.5 is to high but again I think Cincy being dogged at home last week and not covering was a huge sign. Tons of close losses have to take there toll eventually. Basically +3.5 looks like a great value play but I think Cincy could begin to unravel here. How does a sensitive team overcome this? Remember TJ Houszmanzadeh got his bell rung and the week before Chris Henry chicken armed the last pass of the game drawing Palmers ire....think Saints find a way to cover but no play yet (thought about -1.5 -115 NO but Cinc usually falls apart in the 2nd H.)



Buffalo @ Hous- 0 Injuries to Villareal and Macgahee leave question marks though A-Train is fine. Hous lost 3 key players last week and watched there QB get dinged up... After much thought I felt Pinnacle was taking a side here keping HOU at -1 all week when it was 2.5 everywhere else. The Texans are playing well but now after being a DD dog they are a FG fav which takes the value out of them IMO. Remember Buff was favored in DET by 1 pt and lost by 3. The Texans ahve improved and have the Moulds subplot but injuries decimated them in the Jags win. These teams met in BUFF last year with different RBs and Bills won 22-7. Bills played 5 road gmes and only laid an egg @ Chi 2pt loss @ NE , 1 pt loss @ Indy , win @ Miami , FG loss @ Det. My feeling was game should be Bills -1 or PK...Hous would actually have to win 2 in a row to cover and are 5-16 L21 ATS off a SU win...

Wash @ TB- The Skins defense has been a letdown. Now you get Campbell @ QB after being inactive his whole career. A week of pratice does help but how many 1st team reps do you think he received previously. Not to mention first game action , on the road , versus an agreessive and veteran defense. To make matters worse you dont have Portis and Santana Moss is still less then 100% from what I read( Moss is OUT now). TB isnt much better but there D was impressive against CAR and makes me wonder what Skins can do. TB wants revenge for the playoff loss last year and Cadillac needs to get the ball and Gradkowski is very capable IMO. Skins allow 4.2 YPC on the road...hope Gruden sees that as well.. very low scoring tilt

Tenn @ Philly - The Easgles are always a question mark. Tenny however IMO seems to struggle with tough defenses (SD , Dallas , Jax) and explosive offenses. U wonder about Tennys mindset after a couple close losses. The team is greatly improved with Vince @ QB but they still dont do much offensively. What scares me here for Tenny is there injured defensive players who are questionable DE Odom is already OUT and laBoy is questionable( 2 backups are questionable). Robaire Smith is questionable but Haynesworth is active. Reynaldo Hill @ CB is questionable. Very key is Bironas the PK is battling a sore groin. david Givens we never knew ya done for the year. Benji Olson on the OL , you guessed it questionable. With Morningwig calling the plays now expected a more balanced attack which means they actually run the ball(chew clock). The main reason I wont play Philly is the fact they have Indy on deck.

Det @ Ari - Havent flipped the coin yet but Zona seems lost.. Again though Line strength indicates that in similiar situations ARI is the stronger team. An 8 game losing streak makes you desperate and DET is as bad as they come on the road so ARI is the play here versus a weak defense.


Sea @ SF- Again to much hype like in KC for the return of Alexander. The guy probably isnt 100% still and hasnt played in how long? Morris got injured last game as well so wouldnt be suprised to see them share time. Wallace still @ QB didnt do all that much IMO past 2 home games. The 49ers after a big road win continue to not get any respect. Look at how this defense is playing. Look how well the Dorsey and Hicks led SF squad played the real Hawks last year ta home...SF has been tough at home struggling versus explosive offenses which at this point I dont see Sea as qualifying. Gore had a great 1st half but left with an injury in the 2nd H but should be okay here. Thought SEA worst case would be -3...SF should have Vernon Davis and dont look butthey are 4-5 could they make a run @ Seattle here?? Sea last 6 only 3-3 with last minute wins (twice) against STL and 2-2 away barely escaping @ Det and @ STL.

-Indy @ Dallas - Dont be fooled this LINE is not SOFT. Its basically where it should be (PK). Remember that while INDY won they were also FG DOGS @ denver and @ NE. Probably wil wind up playing the home team who seems really motivated to be the ones who stop this undefeated streak. Justhave to work on this game. lets not forget that Indy barely won @NY(twice) and Denver. Have to get a real injury report for Indy still...

Now that I thought about this situation clearly IMO Dallas is the play. First they are motivated to break Indy win streak and spotless season and they have been re-energized by Tony Romo. Again back to the line if you look at the numbers to comparable opponents this season you will see Dallas and Indy actually grade out fairly equal which means HFA would make Dallas a small favorite here. You look at the football side and see Dallas has the running game and WR's to make plays on offense. Defensively they will have to do one thing ...avoid the big pass play which has plagued them. However outside of that I feel DAL D has played exetremely well. Just like in Denver and NE the Colts should have been a DOG here....they arent which creates value in the home team...


~ NE @ GB - The Packers are improving but this is a scary bad spot. You have NE off 2 losses and thats rare. GB has shown us that if they dont make mistakes they can win ball games but we kknew that. Very key here is GB lsoing tauscher on the OL and going with 3 rookie OL!! Very key is how NE for wahtever reason ( the turf @ NE) the PATS have been night and day better on the road. They were also 5.5 pt favs @ NYJ and Buffalo...both teams have shared opponents recently (Min and Buf) and you can see that NE is clearly the stronger team spread wise as they were fav both times and GB dogged both times. GB lack of WR canbe an issue here...if NE secondary was healthy this would be a no brainer for me..... Staying away from cause mt first instinct was GB then I saw the line actually was were it should be at -6. Then Samuel being out further clouds the NE secondary and it simply a pass...




Thoughts -

~ Bears @ NYJ - The Bears in the midst of a tough 3 game road stretch return to the Meadowlands this Sunday. You have to wonder if this takes some of the home field advantage away from NY since Chicago will have a better then normal comfort level now. What has to be kept in midn though is NY is returning from almost what can be called a historic win in NE since the Pats have owned NYJ for so long. Also of note is the Bears have NE on deck next week.

Barlow had his best game as NYJ and this could mean we have a tough tandem of Barlow and Washington going forward. This is quite important in this matchup since the one weakness CHI has shown lately defensively is the ability to stop the run. Gore had 111 yards against them , followed by Ronnie Brown 's 157 , and Tiki's 146. Grossman settled down and without a pass rush played well in the 2nd Half. Part of what NY did @ NE was get to Brady and rush his throws. Hopefully NY is again able to confuse the opposing offense. NY has already played a tight game versus Indy so I dont think it matters who there opponent is at the moment.

Personally CHI as road chalk is still a risky proposition at this point. The Giants were injury riddled this past week and werent exactly a test. Huge home game for the Jets IMO as they attempt to prove the NE game was not a fluke...Only the Jax game was a loss by more then 7 points otherwise they were in those other 3 losses late but couldnt make a play. Bears defense has allowed at least 20 poinst in 3 of 4. While I dont have the numbers I believe the NFC has played poorly against the AFC. Simply put and overreaction with this line to CHI on national TV beating a depleted butNAME franchise in the NYG. Most of the points in recent CHI games have come off turnovers whether its been there offense or the opposing offense with the miscues...so while the OVER looks enticing if they play sound football this should be a 17-14 game... Bears away scored 19 @ GB plus a punt return , 19 @ Minny late TD off a turnover , zero on offense @ Zona before the NYG game. The Under looks very interesting here IMO...


~Oak @ KC- Trent Green returns to action and you have to wonder how much rust he will show. KC has won the past 6 meetings but all close games and by less then 7points. OAK was actually +9.5 & +11 in two of the trips to KC and losing by 4 last year as +3. Last year KC scored with no time on the clock to win though. Basically what I am saying is this is always a great rivalry game. KC has 4 key injuries Waters on the OL and TE Tony Gonzalez both listed as OUT. On defense Wesley @ safety and D. Johnson @ LB are key players who did NOT play last week & appear unlikey to play here. You can also add Tambi Hali to the mix of layers who may not play. The Oakland defense continues to fly under the radar with the Oakland offense struggling and receiving the attention. Hopefully OAK goes with Brooks(they did) as Walter has improved but still makes to many mistakes and he is right the OAK game plan is horrendous. Oak has 5 straight with the opposition scoring 17 or less. To me this is clearly a warm up game for Green and KC with Denver on deck on Thanksgiving. Naturally they are playing to win but I think going in versus a weak opponent they are looking to answer some questions rather then dismantle a struggling team. Really like the UNDER here @ 36 /36.5 would like to play this. What concerns me is this total in recent year shas been in the 50's and even a 60. By the way Green is a walking target IMO.


~ Atl @ Balt - With Vick playing here we have almost a carbon copy of last weeks game in Tenny with Young @ QB. Suddenly the ATL offense is struggling and the defense continues to lose key contributors as Kearney is now out for the season follwoing injuries to Webster and Mathis is the secondary previously. Balt did play @ Tenny w/o Ray Lewis so hopefully he returns but he just had blood drained from his back or something. Teams gaining 2.8 ypc against the Ravens on the ground in Baltimore doesnt bode well for ATL especially with a dinged up OL. One note is ATL is 3-0 ATS as a dog this year. Somewhat scared of Vick in a DOG role and ray Lewis not playing. Along with the line move concerning me . Thankfully I was able to play +4 last nite and buy -3 this morning as th Ravens are -3.5 with ++vig now. Would say the OVER is the play here but waiting till halftime.


~ Pitt @ Cle - Personally I think since Maurice Carthon was fired / resigned this team has grown up. They have always played well enough defensively to keep them in games but they hang all game with SD but couldnt scored TDs instead setting for FG's. They jumped on ATL and cruised. As some Browns fans have pointed out with a young offense they are willing to sit on leads and just get conservative( not to mention 0 , 13 , and 6 last few at home vs Pitt). From what have read last years 41-0 drubbing left a sour taste in the mouthes of CLE players. I wont say revenge but motivated is probably the proper word. Pitt is banged up in the secondary with 3 key players leaving with concussions last week. Pitt was very close to losing that game last week. They have not won a road game (0-4) and worse is Fast Willie Parker and the boyz manage just 58 yd pergame on the road which has been Clevs weakness. The Browns injury list is littered with key players probably pulling a page from NE. One concern is Droughns avaliability since there is not much proven depth at RB. At home Cle has allowed 19 , 15 , 17 and 13 which always makes them a live dog. So pretty sure with Pitt off a less then impressive home game , winless on the road struggling to establish running game which leaves the door open to Big Ben forcing passes, we shall see a BROWNS play here.. really wanted to play the over here but the total has dropped and its appears weather is the reason...37 loooks so juicy but its a pass.

-Minny @ Miami - Historically Miami is a POOR fav. How poor you ask? Well they are 6-18 ATS L24 as chalk and 6-20 ATS L26 at home. Miami is 2-14 ATS L16 at home as a favorite. How bout 1-12 ATS L 13 at home versus teams with a losing record. The Vikes though are 6-19 L25 ATS on grass. However its very key IMO that Minnesota is in the role of DOG after there recent struggles. Miami lost Traylor and Jeno James two key players last week plus Ronnie Brown says he less then 100 playing with a strained groin...Now Minny also has a who's who injury list with chester Taylor , Fred Smoot , Pat Willaims , all word OL Hutchinhson and Birk all apearing on it. Thats why I remain cautious. However one key returnee is Marcus Robinson as I have said in recent weeks he is very important to the offense since he is there deep threat. Basically we have very identical teams here with the difference being that Miami gets to play at home. Now looking at the past data playing at HOME has not been an advantage for them. They lost tough road games @ SF and @ Buff cause the offense couldnt do anything but was able to win @ Wash and @ Seattle cause the offense made enough plays. basically this Miami D has carried them in wins over CHi and KC now with key injuries I think Miami doesnt have the wiggle room to escape here. Lets not forget that Joey Harrington is no stranger to playing against Minnesota. In fact he has 6 career starts versus them and is 0-6!! To his credit he has had a couple of good games againstthem and his DET team was never blown out but he has a 7TD to 12 INT ratio and that is key IMO. He completed 57% of his passes in those games and avg 6.06 yds per attempt..basically average to slightily below average. Clearly Culpepper would have great incentive to play well in this game but sadly he is injured.


~ SD @ Denver- The Cahrgers defense is missing so many key players and WR's Parker and Floyd are questionable. Some stats 4 you :

LT @ Denver
2001 Lost 26-16 14c 75yds
2002 Lost 26-9 14c 48yds
2003 Lost 37-8 8c 29yds
2004 Lost 23-13 22c 60yds
2005 Lost 20-17 19c 52 yds

10 career games just two 100 yd games but did have 220yds in SD once. Has 8 career TDS vs Den but those came in 4 of the 10 games and just two away both in 2005 . With only 1 game his 1st @ Den where he avg 4 yds or better per carry. In LT's 10 career games SD is 3-7 vs Denver and those are the only 3 times SD has managed 20 or more points vs Denver...Gates has also been largely ineffective with just 16c for 164 yds in 4 games but 3 had less then 31 yards receiving. Plummer is 5-1 as a Bronco vs SD..... 248 , 294 and 253 yds vs SD at home with 5tds and 2 Ints. believe Marty is 3-14 as well in Denver going back to his KC days....



Working on the rest.......