Saturday College Football Thoughts
Already lost a small play on the Under in Boise State and have Louisville ML (10x) and Under 57 (5x). Really havent decided if I will touch the Friday AF @ Army matchup yet.
On to Saturday afternoon and the NOON starts ~
UVA @ FSU
This might at first glance look like a big number but despite FSU struggles they have lost 2 tough games at home to BC and Clemson. I think the UVA offense made progress when Sewell became the starter but last 2 weeks they havent shown me much. Now they play @ FSU a team desperate for a win , looking for revenge and getting a UVA squad which never travels well to Seminole country..UVA will struggle to run the ball here and thats a big dimension of there offense. Dont see this UVA team scoring more then 14 here . Hopefully Antone Smith and Lorenzo Booker can repeat there solid performance here and Xavier Lee looked solid @ Maryland.
Play:. FSU -12 -110 (3x) Win 33-0 +3.00
Ball State @ Michigan
While its tempting to take the points or the Under here I just cant. Ball State just could hand Michigan alot of short fields and even the most vanilla of Michigans offense plays could cause trouble cause of the talent gap. Ball State was able to backdopor Purdue earlier this year but the Wolverine defense is stout and wont allow much if anything
Missouri @ Nebraska
I was thinking of taking Nebraska here but I tend to not like to fade a team I played and lost with the week before so I was being cautious. Then today Dr.Bob comes out with Missouri as one of his plays and knocks teh line down to 4.5 or 5. Missouri has shown the ability to play well on the road winning @ TT and losing by 6 @ A&M teams that are in the same neighborhood as Nebraska. Still though Nebraska looks attractive to me with Missouri missing ist best defensive player as does the Under 50.5.
Play: Under 24.5 2nd H -112 (2x) Win 21 points +2.00
Maryland @ Clemson
Well I hopped on the Tigers at -17 this morning only to watch Dr.Bob release it as a strong play and see it basiocally settle @ -20. My opinion was Marylands defense was worse then the PPG it had allowed and just surrended 475 yards to FSU at home nearly double there offense output. They also have been getting destroyed on the ground see WVU 360 yards rushing and the following numbers vs quality teams. Clemson has not allowed any team to score more then 9 points at home versus them and held Calvin Johnson catchless! Terps will struggle to score here and I see no reason why the Tigers dont get 35 here.......thought about the Under but really 47 is to low looking at what Maryland allows......
Play: Clemson -17 -104 (4x) SU Loss 13-12 -4.16
- Now its 19.5 and -20 and might drop down some. I would play it up to -20 or even -20.5....
Penn State @ Wisky
The Nittany Lion offense continues to struggle and this is two tough defenses battling eachother. Thought a fair line was -7 so really no interest in a side if I had to guess would say Wisky but I dont have to!! Looking at the UNDER if it creeps into the low 40's....23-13 type game... blew this onje 13-3 Wisky
Northwestern @ Iowa
Think Tate returns here after Iowa cruised to 10 pt win versus N.Illinois. They got a big lead and coasted. The WIldcat offense runs into another tough defense and 10 points even with Bachar @ QB looks like a mountain....I think weather and lack og interst from Michigan had more to do with the 17 points they allowed last week. I look for Iowa to crack 30 poinst here....
Play : Iowa -19 -110 (3x) SU Loss 21-7 -3.30
Pitt @ South Florida
The Panthers are off a home loss to Rutgers and USF off an pathetic offensive effort @ Cincy. Looking for a defensive battle and think the home team could hang.
Play: Under 44.5 -105 (3x) & USF +5 -110 (2x) win SU 22-12 +5.00
Baylor @ Tex Tech
Shaun Bell is done for the year and that makes me want to stay away from this game. I will look at the TTteam over whne it comes out ...
Play : TT over 36.5 -108 (2x) & TT -9 -110 1st H (2.5x) Win +4.50
Indiana @Minnesota
Indiana has played some decent ball lately however even with Minnys struggles this line is to low. Remember that versus a dead Mich State team they were basically TD home dogs , they were TD dogs @ Illinois as well....Minnesota with its struggles has played decent defense and Cupito should be able to throw on Indiana. Both teams were taken to shed verus Ohio State but I dont think Ind can win this game on the road..after the home upset of Mich State.
Play : Minnesota -5.5 -110 (5x) Win 62-20 +5.00
Miss State @ Bama
Right now Bama has struggled and failed to cover versus Vandy , Hawaii , Duke and Miss at home so why would I want to lay chalk with them ? Miss State just went to the wire @ Georgia and home versus Kentucky. Henig is making plays in the passing game which is good since the Bulldogs wont run on Bama. Not great value but .. was eyeing the over 39 yesterdand forgot about it...
Play: Miss State +15.5 -110 (2x)
Florida @ Vandy
I cant figure out this line and cant figure why it jumped from 14 to 17 so I will stay away!
1PM
Central Michigan @ Temple
The inprovement in Temple was evident to me inthe past few weeks. Which led me to playing Temple and even the ML last week. While CMU is a better team then BG it still baffles me they could make Temple such big dogs here..
Play: Temple +19 -110 (4x) bad sign now @ +20 / so stupid should have played CMU -10 1st Half! Holy Backdoor!! 42-26 Final +4.00
Navy @ Duke
Both teams have failed to slow anyone recently on defense. Duke should struggle versus the option and there offense has shown life recently....
Play: Over 47 -104 Duke / Navy (3x) Win +3.00 38-13
Georgia @ Kentcuky
I cant trust the Bulldogs but had this at more like -8 so no value in the dog either.....pass
Bowl Green @ Akron
Waiting to see if this gets cheaper but think -9 is fair. BG has been struggling on offense for awhile now and both teams off bad losses away. See the BG offense struggling to get 14 again...leaning Akron
Kent State @ Buffalo
No interest / opinion
Ohio U @ East Mich
No interest / opinion
Kansas @ Iowa State
Was looking at playing KU +1 then Dr.Bon pushed it to -2 or better. Kansas has played better on the road IMO and looks like theyhave another new QB. Iowa State hasnt shown anything at all this season....
Play: Kansas ML -120 (4x)
Ark State @ Auburn
No interest...
UNC @ Notre Dame
Not crazy about laying this with ND since there offense hasnt really been in sync. NC has been decent against the pass so I am hoping they limit big plays and let ND work for there points. ND defense has been better then expected and UNC offense is in disarray all season..
Play : UNC +27 -110 (2x) & Under 52 -105 (2x)
Hawaii @ Utah State
The rainbows are en fuego but can they be trusted in cold weather and with some injuries to there defense? If anything I play the rainbows 1st H.....
Play: Under 65.5 -110 (2x)
TCU @ UNLV
No interest / opinion
SDST @ Wyoming
Probbaly dont touch this buts it Wyoming or nothing just cant trust the Cowboy offense...
3:30 's
Wash @ Oregon
You wonder what toll back to back OT losses will tale on the Huskies . Just a game better to stay away from....
Miami -Ohio @ West Michigan
No interest / opinion
Tulsa @ Houston
Expect Tulsa to be -3 here so not touching a side. Think this should be a shootout with Smith vs Kolb......
Play: Over 56 -105 (3x) & Tulsa ML -119 (3x)
Purdue @ Mich State
Cant touch the Spartans and how could I go over when Purdue has scored 3 points total past 2 games at home!!! Would love to go under but Mich State would have to try then...
Ohio State @ Illinois
Illinois has coverd all 4 games when getting 17 or more. This is alot of chalk and the Illinois defense is underrated......
Play: Illinois +27 -110 (3x)
FAU @ Mid Tenn State
Would take the home team -11 if anything but this line got pounded down from 14....
LSU @ Tenny
The Vols lost Coker and now Ainge hurt his ankle last week. They were unable to run the ball vs South Car and wont versus LSU. Which means there offense lies in Ainge hands but gimpy ankle...LSU has lost 2 tough road games this year @ Auburn and @ FLA were they couldt make plays on offfense late. Difference here is Tenny DEF isnt the same caliber as those.. For those who wonder why LSU is favored go back to FLA laying -4.5 in Tenny. A bit high but they won SU so -3 was correct here IMO...Tenny struggled at home recently....
Play: Bought LSU -2.5 -120 (5x)
East Car @ UCF
The Golden Eagles havent played any defense of late but 55 seems high...
ULL @ Troy
For some reason I dont see much offense
Play : Under 43 +102(2x)
ASU @ Oregon State
I have to fade the Beavers here with a banged up RB and QB off the win versus USC.....
Play: ASU +3 -105 (3x)
Arizona @ Wash State
No interest / opinion
Nevada @Idaho
Dont like playing a team back from hawaii but Idaho was playing well before that beating. Nevada just 1-3 SU away and only a 3 pt fav @ UNLV where they cruised...double digit chalk seems heavy...
Play : Idaho +10.5 -115 (2x)
BYU @ Colorado State
Cant see how this line is +17 maybe +14 but 17......I have this closer to -13. Colorado State defense is decent and BYU's road high is 33 (31 , 23 and 13 in the others)....
Play : Colorado State +17 -105 (3x)
The 7 Pm starts and after
GaTech @ NCSt
We have GT coming off a nice win at home versus Miami and the Wolfpack who continue to befuddle the world dropping 3 straight after 2 home upsets. The key is HOME UPSETS. For whatever reason NCST under Amato has adpoted the identity of a team who plays better when less is expected (IE: as a DOG). Now some will say NUT they were dogs past 2 road games @ Maryland and @ UVA. The problem with that is they were away and less then FG dogs which means technically they are better then there opponents BUT more important the points didnt matter they had to win to cover the point spread...Not really the same situation as Home dog of +5 where they need to compete...these are the games where yo see favs winning by 1 or 2 points...if they do win...
Bottomline is the situation has a POOR FAV in GT as road chalk versus a GOOD HOME DOG in NCST. I think the young QB of the Wolfpack wille perform better at home and the tandem of Baker and Brown can do enough on the ground as GT has allowed some yardage lately on the ground...Wolfpack have 2 upstes athome and 2 FG losses to decent squads in WF and Akron. if GT played to there full capabilities instead of there usual inconsistencies the Wolfpack could be in trouble BUT that rarely seems to happen...also Travis Bell tends to reflect his teammates inconcistent play with inconsistent FG kicking!
N.C. State is not a team to be overlooked as it has won its last four games against ranked opponents, including victories over Boston College and Florida State this season.
Play: NCST +6 -120 (3x)
BC @ Wake Forest
Personally I understand why this game opened at 6. We had Wake recently win a close game @ NCST in which they were 3 point dogs( tends to mean equal strength) and awhile back BC traveled to NCST as 6 point favs but lost on a last minute TD by 2 points after a Ryan fumble...so that number made sense.
Now we see 3.5 and I have to be real close to laying it with BC. Two very good defenses square off here but while WF has home field BC clarly has the better offense. BC has allowed 22 point since that Wolfpack loss with2 shutouts at home and 3pt game vs VaTech...they should keep the WF runninggame grounded leaving it Skinner to make plays. There FG kicker isprobably the most potent offensive weapon with the ability to knock throughh 50 + yards on a consistent basis....if BC doesnt make mistakes they should control the game and win a low scoring battle around 20-13. Waiting but think BC here but def looking at this UNDER 40...
Play: BC -3-120 (2x) & Under 42 -113 (2x)
Oklahoma State @ Texas
Tough matchup here. I think this line should be closer to -15 not -18 so leaning towards the DOG since pass defense is giving UT trouble despite there 2nd H shutdown of TT. Reid and Co can score but they struggle to stop anyone.....UT low offensive output at home is 37 vs Iowa State and they sat on the ball late...so they should crack 40 here and I cant see why OK St doesnt top 24...
Leaning Ok St +18 but really like the over 62.5(42-21 does the trick) but waiting to see if it gets cheaper
Play: Over 61.5 -110 (3x)
USC @ Stanford
The Cardinal offense is non-existent now that Edwards is done for the year. All season they had struggled with WR issues and have only scored more then 10 points ONCE this year. The 1st Half @ SJST with Edwards at QB and some heakthy Wideouts they put up 34 in the 6 1/2 games since they had 39 total points. I 'll say that Stanford scores 7 but only cause they get a late gift.....Stanford D will eventually tire leading to some easy scores for the Trojans looking to bounce back....38-7? 38-3?35-3 something along those lines.......USC 1st H -17 +100 look sinteresting as well
HAve to think and watch this one...USC -17 +100 1st H looks enticing as does the Under...
Play: USC 1st H -17 +111 (2x) & Under 50-105 (2x)
LaTech @ NTexas
Probably staying away from this but 2 bad teams I think you have to take the DOG here. Outside of a home upset of SMU NT hasnt even been competitive most of the time...
Tulane @ Marshall
Would think if Tulane was healthy @ WR this would be a shootout and the over is teh way to go but they could be w/o 2 key WR's . Ricard can sling it and sudenly Marshall has offense while the Green Wave havent slowed anyone yet....HAve to better understand teh WR picture @ Tulane but did lean Tulane but really the over 57..
Arkansas @ South Carolina
Bad line alert...this game should at worst be a PK...what has ARK done to deserve road chalk? A FLUKE UPSET of Auburn the week before the AUB/FLA? They crushed 3 worthless squads at home and thats about it. They played @ Vandy early and struggled this is a much tougher venue. SC IMO gave Tenny all it couldhandle after getting off the wrong foot with a Pick 6 early....SC gave Auburn and Tenny games both top 10 teams at home......all ARK has done is win @ AUB.....they barely edged BAMA at home in OT and after that @ AVndy is ther enext toughest game...we wont mention USC.....Let ARK show me they are for real.....
Play: South Carolina -3 -120 (3x) probably ML as well
VaTech @ Miami
Real simple overeraction the Hokie upset at home over Clemson. No way should they be favored on the road in the Orange Bowl...think about how they played @BC. The Hokies wont run and they havet shown teh ability to consistent pass with Glennon under center..bad line!
Play : Miami +3 -118 (avg price) (10x) ML +124 (4x)
Oklahoma @ A&M
This line should be a PK IMO... cant see OU as being 6 or so points better on aneutral field without AP. There defense is vastily improving though. The A& M defense is average but right OU is depending on field position to get poinst on the board...think A&M 23-20 here..
Leaning either A&M +3 or better , ML and the UNDER for sure
Play: Under 47 -110 (3x) ML +122 (1.5x)
UCLA @ Cal
No opinion
SJST @ NMST
would only be interested in SF @ -4 and NMST at +7 or better....
Rice @ UTEP
Cant figure out whythis keeps dropping....the way I see itUTEP under -10 is cheap...to be determined...
Play: Utep -9.5 -110(2x)
Thursday, November 02, 2006
November 2nd Thoughts ~NBA/NCAAF
NCAAF ~WVU @ Lville
Finally thee GAME has arrived.
Right now its late and dont feel like a long discussion. Right now with Brohm getting two games under his belt I think he is finding his groove after the injury. Kolby Smith found himself against Syracuse giving them a few options at RB. Basically on a neutral field these teams are even.....the difference is home field and Lville has it so the line should be -3.5 IMO. To me neither team has played a hard schedule....Maryland at home is WVU biggest test to date and here in lie the difference cause Lville already histed Miami and spanked them. Even more impressive is that Brohm got hurt in that game and Michael Bush was already out.
The sleeper in the equation is the Louisville DEFENSE as its is extremely underrated and muc.h better then WVU's. To me the best situations are where the betting public 'buys' into a bad line and they did it here pushing a fair line of 2.5 down to -1 or Pk....
Play:
Louisville ML +103 (10x) Win +10.30 & Under 57 -105 (5x) Loss -5.25(2nd day in arow went oppsite my original thought and lost!)
Some books have Louisville +1 now so I played the ML +105 and +100 for the +103 average
2nd Half Lville ML -105 (3x) Win +3.00 There fucking us with the 2nd H total 30.5...
Saturday Play~
Miami +3 -120 (6x) and ML +124 (4x)
Basic overreaction to the Clemson upset. Miami's run defense is real solid and I cant see how VT goes from Home doggie to Road chalk...........
NCAAF ~WVU @ Lville
Finally thee GAME has arrived.
Right now its late and dont feel like a long discussion. Right now with Brohm getting two games under his belt I think he is finding his groove after the injury. Kolby Smith found himself against Syracuse giving them a few options at RB. Basically on a neutral field these teams are even.....the difference is home field and Lville has it so the line should be -3.5 IMO. To me neither team has played a hard schedule....Maryland at home is WVU biggest test to date and here in lie the difference cause Lville already histed Miami and spanked them. Even more impressive is that Brohm got hurt in that game and Michael Bush was already out.
The sleeper in the equation is the Louisville DEFENSE as its is extremely underrated and muc.h better then WVU's. To me the best situations are where the betting public 'buys' into a bad line and they did it here pushing a fair line of 2.5 down to -1 or Pk....
Play:
Louisville ML +103 (10x) Win +10.30 & Under 57 -105 (5x) Loss -5.25(2nd day in arow went oppsite my original thought and lost!)
Some books have Louisville +1 now so I played the ML +105 and +100 for the +103 average
2nd Half Lville ML -105 (3x) Win +3.00 There fucking us with the 2nd H total 30.5...
Saturday Play~
Miami +3 -120 (6x) and ML +124 (4x)
Basic overreaction to the Clemson upset. Miami's run defense is real solid and I cant see how VT goes from Home doggie to Road chalk...........
NBA ~
Mavs -2.5 -108 (4x) & Under 184 -110 (4x) 97- 91 Spurs(late FTs killed!) -8.72
Under 105.5 -102 1st Half Denver / LAC (3x) Win +3.00
2nd H Under 93 +104 (1.5x) +1.56
Nuggets +4 -110 (2x) ML +154 (1x) Pending
2nd H over 103 -101 Denver (2x)
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
November 1st Thoughts
College Football
Under 59 -115 Fresno State (3x)
Under 17.5 -102 Fresno team total (1x)
Result -4.47 ....both teams gave eachother an ez score 45-21 final..
We have a reeling Bulldog team traveling to play rival Boise State in one of the toughest enviroments in college football. Fresno understands the cant outscore Boise so if they are to play spolier it most be the defense that leads the way. Last game @ LSU I thought they did a solid job on defense till about mid 3 rd quarter when they appeared gassed. So the offense most move chains early to keep the Bulldog defense from tiring out. Think throught the 1st6 possessions LSU had 10 points on offense plus a punt return for a score. They allowed 430 yards of offense put about 280 of that came on the last 4 drives. In recent season the matchup has been low scoring and Fresno has struggled to score against Boise....that should continue here. Only Hawaii has broken 38 on Fresno and IMO thats cause they didnt have the answers for Brennan through the air. Boise is much more reliant on Ian Johnson to get the offense going then Zabransky nowadays.
No matter how you slice it seems Boise always finds away to get the 38-45 point range so thats what I would against expect though thinking its around 35-38 pts here. Expecting something around 38-14.
NBA
Last nite was bad. In my defense who expected a 108 from Chicago and an under? Or 66 from Miami? Once Kobe doesnt play the total is a pure coin flip but lone mistakes were getting on Miami after having CHI originally but not playing LAL @ Half -5 +405!!
Indiana @ Charlotte
Well the Bobcats are a perfect 7-0 ATS versus Indiana but they have never seen such a low spread. In fact Char is 2-1 SU at home vs Indiana and this preseason in a game that featured what I would see as the real teams Charlotte beat them again.
Read this:
Nov 1, 2006 1:13pm ET
Pacers, Like Much Of NBA, Changing Speeds
In the INDIANAPOLIS STAR, Mark Montieth writes "whether or not they look good is a question for a later date, but this much is certain: The Indiana Pacers will look different this season. That familiar half-court, teeth-pulling offense has been replaced by a simplified full-court attack. Shooting guards and forwards have been replaced by a more generic term, wings. A standing, play-calling coach has been replaced by one willing to take most things sitting down.”
So while the UNDER at first looks enticing reading this and seeing the preseason scores make me think otherwise. Also when Knight joined Felton in the backcourt it appeared the offense took off. With Brezec OUT that means more minutes for Sean May. Indiana has struggled on the road going 15-29 SU last year.....
Plays:
Over 193.5 +104 Indiana and Charlotte (6x)might get cheaper
Charlotte +1 -104 (3x)
Result +3.12 L106 -99
Chicago @ Orlando
Sorry but I thought the opening line was fair for this game and say after a game to see a 6 point adjustment seems absurd. Heat just flat out stunk more then anything CHI didi last nite. A fair line is Orlando as a smal fav.....Not to mention back to back coming into play early...
Plays:
Orlando +2 -101 (6x)
Over 185 -103 Orlando & Chicago (3x) could get cheaper
Result : +9.00 W109-94
ATL @ Philly
Personally I like this 76er team and think they will suprise. Should be interesting to see how the Marvin Williams loss on the heels of the Harrington trade effects this team but ATL hung with Philly last year.....really want to play Philly here but remain cautious of the line drop.....
Plays:
Over 199-110 Philly and Atl (3x)
Result : -3.30 W88-75..liked Philly too..
New Orleans @ Boston
With Red passing away you would expect emotion to be high and NO missed alot of PT in preseason with injuries as most of the starting lineup played just 1 game together. NO another former defensive team couldnt stop anyone this preseason...
8 PM
Under 185 -110 Sac & Minny (6x)
result : +6.00 W 92-83
Cle ML -245 & Utah +101 (2x)
Cle ML , Utah ML and Minny ML (1x)
Result: both wins.. +3.66 and +3.18 (Net +5.84 on parlays)
Team Totals
Over 97 -104 Char(1.5x ) W
Late starts: PENDING
Sonics -8.5 -103 (3x) L -3.09 SU lLoss 107-104
Warriors -6.5 -110 (6x) L -6.60
LAC +5 -110 (4x) L -4.40
Under 212 LAC -105 (3x) L-3.15
Late nite results -17.24
Team totals
Over 103 -112 Sonics (2x) Win +2
Over 105.5 -120 GS (2.5x) Loss -3
thoughat bout Portland over 94 but passed.....
Well I got screwed late......120 something 2nd H points in PHO and GS blows an 8 pt half time lead........
Sides & totals -3.08
Parlays +5.84
Team +4.83
2nd H +3.73
Still +++ but what a BS ending
College Football
Under 59 -115 Fresno State (3x)
Under 17.5 -102 Fresno team total (1x)
Result -4.47 ....both teams gave eachother an ez score 45-21 final..
We have a reeling Bulldog team traveling to play rival Boise State in one of the toughest enviroments in college football. Fresno understands the cant outscore Boise so if they are to play spolier it most be the defense that leads the way. Last game @ LSU I thought they did a solid job on defense till about mid 3 rd quarter when they appeared gassed. So the offense most move chains early to keep the Bulldog defense from tiring out. Think throught the 1st6 possessions LSU had 10 points on offense plus a punt return for a score. They allowed 430 yards of offense put about 280 of that came on the last 4 drives. In recent season the matchup has been low scoring and Fresno has struggled to score against Boise....that should continue here. Only Hawaii has broken 38 on Fresno and IMO thats cause they didnt have the answers for Brennan through the air. Boise is much more reliant on Ian Johnson to get the offense going then Zabransky nowadays.
No matter how you slice it seems Boise always finds away to get the 38-45 point range so thats what I would against expect though thinking its around 35-38 pts here. Expecting something around 38-14.
NBA
Last nite was bad. In my defense who expected a 108 from Chicago and an under? Or 66 from Miami? Once Kobe doesnt play the total is a pure coin flip but lone mistakes were getting on Miami after having CHI originally but not playing LAL @ Half -5 +405!!
Indiana @ Charlotte
Well the Bobcats are a perfect 7-0 ATS versus Indiana but they have never seen such a low spread. In fact Char is 2-1 SU at home vs Indiana and this preseason in a game that featured what I would see as the real teams Charlotte beat them again.
Read this:
Nov 1, 2006 1:13pm ET
Pacers, Like Much Of NBA, Changing Speeds
In the INDIANAPOLIS STAR, Mark Montieth writes "whether or not they look good is a question for a later date, but this much is certain: The Indiana Pacers will look different this season. That familiar half-court, teeth-pulling offense has been replaced by a simplified full-court attack. Shooting guards and forwards have been replaced by a more generic term, wings. A standing, play-calling coach has been replaced by one willing to take most things sitting down.”
So while the UNDER at first looks enticing reading this and seeing the preseason scores make me think otherwise. Also when Knight joined Felton in the backcourt it appeared the offense took off. With Brezec OUT that means more minutes for Sean May. Indiana has struggled on the road going 15-29 SU last year.....
Plays:
Over 193.5 +104 Indiana and Charlotte (6x)might get cheaper
Charlotte +1 -104 (3x)
Result +3.12 L106 -99
Chicago @ Orlando
Sorry but I thought the opening line was fair for this game and say after a game to see a 6 point adjustment seems absurd. Heat just flat out stunk more then anything CHI didi last nite. A fair line is Orlando as a smal fav.....Not to mention back to back coming into play early...
Plays:
Orlando +2 -101 (6x)
Over 185 -103 Orlando & Chicago (3x) could get cheaper
Result : +9.00 W109-94
ATL @ Philly
Personally I like this 76er team and think they will suprise. Should be interesting to see how the Marvin Williams loss on the heels of the Harrington trade effects this team but ATL hung with Philly last year.....really want to play Philly here but remain cautious of the line drop.....
Plays:
Over 199-110 Philly and Atl (3x)
Result : -3.30 W88-75..liked Philly too..
New Orleans @ Boston
With Red passing away you would expect emotion to be high and NO missed alot of PT in preseason with injuries as most of the starting lineup played just 1 game together. NO another former defensive team couldnt stop anyone this preseason...
Plays:
Boston -3 -110 (4x) & Over 199 -111 (4x)
Result: L -8.84 L 91-87
Toronto @ NJ
See what I posted about Indiana well throw NJ into that story....they also have changed there offense approach this offseason.
Play:
Over 203 -110 NJN & Tor (6x)
Nets -7 -110 (6x)
Result : -.60 W102-92
Also:
5 team ML parlay (1x)
Charl ML -108 , Orl +109 , Phi -235 , Bos -152 , NJN -315
Loss -1.008 PM
Under 185 -110 Sac & Minny (6x)
result : +6.00 W 92-83
With Artest in Sac and Bibby out it will be defense first for the Kings.
Knicks ML +193 (1.5x)
result : +2.90 NYK wins 118-117
No Gasol and Swift ailing..worth a shot...think Isiah turns it around...
Under 194 -110 Cleveland & Wash (4x)
result : +4.00 Cavs 97-94
Tough to crack 90 in Cleveland.....
Over 194 -105 Det & Milw (6x)
Result : +6.00 Milw W 105-97
Even with Ben in the middle to clog it up this way a high scoring series...no more Wallace really should it open it up.
Under 182.5 -103 Houston &Utah (4x)
Result : -4.12 Utah 107-97
banged up stars and the Rockets mean 80 something to 80 something IMO....
Late games.....be back with those later on.... GL
Net Sides & Totals +14.16
ParlayCle ML -245 & Utah +101 (2x)
Cle ML , Utah ML and Minny ML (1x)
Result: both wins.. +3.66 and +3.18 (Net +5.84 on parlays)
Team Totals
Over 97 -104 Char(1.5x ) W
Over 91 -104 Orl(1x)W
Und 95 -112 Min (1.5x) W
Und 99.5 -108 Cle (1.5x) W
Und 93.5 -108 Was (1x) L
Und 91 -101 Utah (1x) L
Und 90 -108 hou (1x) L
Over 93.5 -108 Milw (2.5x) W
Result : +5.83 (5-3)
GOOD LUCK all tons of stuff but technically value is high early in the season...
Late starts: PENDING
Sonics -8.5 -103 (3x) L -3.09 SU lLoss 107-104
Warriors -6.5 -110 (6x) L -6.60
LAC +5 -110 (4x) L -4.40
Under 212 LAC -105 (3x) L-3.15
Late nite results -17.24
Team totals
Over 103 -112 Sonics (2x) Win +2
Over 105.5 -120 GS (2.5x) Loss -3
thoughat bout Portland over 94 but passed.....
Well I got screwed late......120 something 2nd H points in PHO and GS blows an 8 pt half time lead........
Sides & totals -3.08
Parlays +5.84
Team +4.83
2nd H +3.73
Still +++ but what a BS ending
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Tuesday Halloween thoughts
Opening Nite NBA and NCAA Football
NBA
Suns @ Lakers
We all should know about the injuries plaguing both teams with stars Kobe and Amare playing but at less then 100%. In fact Kobe didnt appear in a preseason game so even with all his ability that should be a factor. LAL is w/o centers Mihm and Kwame Brown meaning improving youngster Andrew Bynum will get the start and the bulk of minutes. Marion is nicked along with Radmonvic for LAL. Barborsa and Vujacic have minor injuries amd McKie and James Jones are OUT respectively. These teams met in the 1st round of the playoffs were LAL blew a 3-1 lead and we had Raja Bell talking smack to Kobe. They even met twice in the preseason already.......so they are very familiar with eachother.
You look at the meetings last year and see alot of high totals but alot of UNDERS. Funny thing to me is the 1st meeting in Pho the total was to low at 202 and after that it got jacked to 210 to 220 range and was all unders. The star players are less the 100% , the Suns struggled shooting 3 's all preseason and they really struggled shooting from beyond the arc in the 2 preseason games against LAL.
Personally I feel this TOTAL is way to high for the opening game. These teams have history and you know Raja Bell is licking his chops to play Kobe and show the world he can shut him down. To sail over you need both teams to score well above a 100 points. With Kobes absence in the preseason and some new faces you would expect the LAL offense to struggle to get in sync. I really like that LAL for the most part kept PHO offense in check last year. Naturally Amare wasnt around but he isnt 100% yet... Truthfully I think the last 3 meetings in the playoffs should betaken with a grain of salt ...they were all overs but the totals were finally adjusted down atthat point and the last 2 games Raja Bell didnt play. Prior to that hey scored 98 in OT , 92 and 89 in LA and hadnt even topped 110 at home. Last year LAL was a tiny fav at home and now is 5 pt dogs?? Amare is a big difference but that big???
Play :
Under 209.5 -110 LAL & Phoenix(6x) (220)Loss -6.60
Lakers +5 -110 (4x), +7.5 -102 (2x) , +8.5 -110 (1x) SU win 114-106 +7.00
Middled Over 205 -102 & Under 209.5 -110 (3x each) xxxxx
CHI @ Miami
It seems people are falling in love with the idea that CHI will play great defense now that Big Ben is town. I think it has more to do with pace and tempo and it seems like Skiles wants to open the offense more. He recently said PJ Brown will come of the bench with Nochiocini (sp?) starting. That seems to back his statement. As wonderful a player that Wallace is SHAQ did his thing versus him last yer at home when DET came to town. I dont think Jason Williams lost changes much. He missed some time last year and the offense seemed to click just fine....just check the game logs. Hard for me to imagine on an emotional nite the HEAT not coming to play with a great crowd behind them. Personally I think Miami gets to a 100 here.....like many I played CHI +7 -110 but no longer like it think 5.5 is cheap for the defending champs.
Play:
Over 187 +102 Chi & Miami (5x) & over 187 -113 (2x) (174) Loss -7.26
Middled Miami -4.5 -104 & Chi +7 -111 (3x each) xxxxxxx
Miami -4.5 -108 (5x) & -4 -110(2x) Zo's speech was inspiring! Loss -7.60
Team Totals
Over 96.5 +108 Bulls (1.5x) (66) Loss -1.50
Under 106.5 +111 Suns(1.5x) (106) Win +1.66
DISCLAIMER ~
With all the time on spend on football both Pro and College the time hasnt been there to focus on the NBA. Truthfully I think I know what I am doing but using my instincts more then anything here. Just a cautious heads up from me.....if you are tailing......
Working on SMU vs UAB.
NCAAF~
Changed my mind no reason for me to touch this......
GL
Opening Nite NBA and NCAA Football
NBA
Suns @ Lakers
We all should know about the injuries plaguing both teams with stars Kobe and Amare playing but at less then 100%. In fact Kobe didnt appear in a preseason game so even with all his ability that should be a factor. LAL is w/o centers Mihm and Kwame Brown meaning improving youngster Andrew Bynum will get the start and the bulk of minutes. Marion is nicked along with Radmonvic for LAL. Barborsa and Vujacic have minor injuries amd McKie and James Jones are OUT respectively. These teams met in the 1st round of the playoffs were LAL blew a 3-1 lead and we had Raja Bell talking smack to Kobe. They even met twice in the preseason already.......so they are very familiar with eachother.
You look at the meetings last year and see alot of high totals but alot of UNDERS. Funny thing to me is the 1st meeting in Pho the total was to low at 202 and after that it got jacked to 210 to 220 range and was all unders. The star players are less the 100% , the Suns struggled shooting 3 's all preseason and they really struggled shooting from beyond the arc in the 2 preseason games against LAL.
Personally I feel this TOTAL is way to high for the opening game. These teams have history and you know Raja Bell is licking his chops to play Kobe and show the world he can shut him down. To sail over you need both teams to score well above a 100 points. With Kobes absence in the preseason and some new faces you would expect the LAL offense to struggle to get in sync. I really like that LAL for the most part kept PHO offense in check last year. Naturally Amare wasnt around but he isnt 100% yet... Truthfully I think the last 3 meetings in the playoffs should betaken with a grain of salt ...they were all overs but the totals were finally adjusted down atthat point and the last 2 games Raja Bell didnt play. Prior to that hey scored 98 in OT , 92 and 89 in LA and hadnt even topped 110 at home. Last year LAL was a tiny fav at home and now is 5 pt dogs?? Amare is a big difference but that big???
Play :
Under 209.5 -110 LAL & Phoenix(6x) (220)Loss -6.60
Lakers +5 -110 (4x), +7.5 -102 (2x) , +8.5 -110 (1x) SU win 114-106 +7.00
Middled Over 205 -102 & Under 209.5 -110 (3x each) xxxxx
CHI @ Miami
It seems people are falling in love with the idea that CHI will play great defense now that Big Ben is town. I think it has more to do with pace and tempo and it seems like Skiles wants to open the offense more. He recently said PJ Brown will come of the bench with Nochiocini (sp?) starting. That seems to back his statement. As wonderful a player that Wallace is SHAQ did his thing versus him last yer at home when DET came to town. I dont think Jason Williams lost changes much. He missed some time last year and the offense seemed to click just fine....just check the game logs. Hard for me to imagine on an emotional nite the HEAT not coming to play with a great crowd behind them. Personally I think Miami gets to a 100 here.....like many I played CHI +7 -110 but no longer like it think 5.5 is cheap for the defending champs.
Play:
Over 187 +102 Chi & Miami (5x) & over 187 -113 (2x) (174) Loss -7.26
Middled Miami -4.5 -104 & Chi +7 -111 (3x each) xxxxxxx
Miami -4.5 -108 (5x) & -4 -110(2x) Zo's speech was inspiring! Loss -7.60
Team Totals
Over 96.5 +108 Bulls (1.5x) (66) Loss -1.50
Under 106.5 +111 Suns(1.5x) (106) Win +1.66
2nd H
Heat -6.5 -113(2x) L -2.26DISCLAIMER ~
With all the time on spend on football both Pro and College the time hasnt been there to focus on the NBA. Truthfully I think I know what I am doing but using my instincts more then anything here. Just a cautious heads up from me.....if you are tailing......
Working on SMU vs UAB.
NCAAF~
Changed my mind no reason for me to touch this......
GL
Monday, October 30, 2006
Monday Nite Football on Espn
New England travels to Minnesota
Line is around NE -1-113 (ML -120) / 39.5 -105
There is nothing I enjoy more then the opportunity to handicap one game. Its so hard on Saturday and Sunday to express all my thoughts on the games when there are so damn many to talk about. I wish I could just think it and it would transpose itself onto my blog. The weekday games give me the opportunity to focus on one thing.
Anyway earlier in the week I like many thought wow....Vikes +3.....thats a bargain...so I grabbed in at +3 -125 I believe. Then it started to sink and was wondering why? Why did it seem like value? Was it cause they traveled to Seattle and won SU fairly convincingly? My answer was no because I had backed Minnesota in that game cause SEATTLE's Defense had been unraveling week after week. So lets look at this...
We look at what NE has done and you see a 5-1 record. You go underneath the numbers and realize they beat Buffalo twice , Miami and the Jets all really bottomfeeders in the AFC. They lost at home to Denver in a situation where they were overvalued cause of the concerns about Denvers offense. The following week @ Cincy they were extremely undervalued after the home loss and some costly turnovers led them to a convincing SU win away. So really we have seen typical NE football. Solid defense all season but it probably has gotten better as the weeks wore on. Has the offense improved? I am not ready to say that even though I love what Chad Jackson does for them. They scored 4 times last week but 1 was thanks to a short field and the others were all were they started on the NE 30 or better. My concen is can a team repeatedley go 80 or more yards up and down a field? To me NE still hasnt shown me the ability to do so. There key is great defense leading to either a short field on a turnover or putting the opposing offense ina situation where they have to punt deep from there own territory causing a starting point for the NE offense. Looking at Cincy there high offensive output where they scoed the last 24 points of the game they caused 2 Palmer fumbles to start inside the Cincy 20. The Bengals also are thin on defense with tons of injuries @ LB so they are no comparision to Minny's D.
You look @ Minny and see 31 @ Seattle....Seattle's defense is in company with Cincy for whatever reason. Ever since that big lead against NYG at home they have failed to stop anyone(think about the end of the STL game the previous week). So 30 points isnt all that impressive. Its even less impressive when you realize there last TD was off a Wallace fumble who was playing in relief of an injured Hasselback. Then they had a 95 YD TD run. Folks 95 yd TDs whether run or pass are more often then not fluke plays.....someones misses a block or assignment and in a blink your screwed. They had a 40 yd pass to Marcus Robinson who in some ways is there deep threat cause even though Williamson has the legs to stretch the field they hands and coordination arent there yet. The point is Robinson is OUT with a back injury leaving Taylor and Williamson to start both capable WR's but both were concussed last week. Another TD came off a Melwede Moore pass....not sure those type plays work against NE.
The previous week they were outplayed by DET badly but somehow got two 4th Q defensive TDS and won by 6.....Previous to that they couldnt muster enough offense and lost @ Buffalo , they couldnt muster enough offense and lost at home to CHI by 3 when the offensive couldnt produce a TD. They won @ Was in week 1 IMO cause Shawn Springs was out. The offense didnt do much except attack Rumph and Watson @ CB and those two have proven to be horrible and every team is attacking them now. They struggled to beat Carolina without Steve Smith and needed a silly play on a punt return to get there only TD. Actually after that they needed a FG fake and pass from Longwell to sc0re there only TD.
So lets recap Minny season:
Win @ Wash 19-16 ~ They score 2 TDs on offense. Chester Taylor manages only 31c 88yds and a long of 10 yards. Also Hall missed a 47 yder at the end of regulation to tie.
Win Vs Car 16-13 ~ Panthers dont have Smith and led 13-6 with about 11 to play. Minny punting from inside there 10 kick it Gamble who tries a lateral and gives Minny the ball at about the Carolina 20...On 4th and 5 from the 16 longwell throws a TD to Richard Owens..
Lose vs Chi 19-16 ~ Basically up 16-12 Taylor trying to run clock fumbled and gave CHI the short field which Grossman took advantage off after giving Minny the lead with ahorrible INT that went for 6. Minny had 3 FGS on offense but 1 was largely due to a short field off a turnover. Brad Johnson was decent that day 21 of 31 194 yds. Taylor 20c for 74yds but one run was 24 yards so do the math.....19c for 50 on the rest.
Lose @ Buff 12-17 ~ They score a late TD with 3 minutes left but cant get the 2 pt conversion. Here Taylor 10c - 23yds ....Johnson 267 yards but 44 attempts (6.1 avg). The curious part is the offense did nothing 128 yds thru 3 quarters and trailed 17-6 but managed 180 yds of offense in the 4th quarter......was it that prevent defense coupled with the playing with a lead mentality that finally allowed Minny to move the ball?? Seems that way to me...
win vs Det 26-17 ~ two 4th Q turnoves become 13 quick points for minny. They started dow 17-3 but johnson hit Talor for a short TD before the wheels unraveled for DET. Tayor had a solid day 26c 123 yds but not getting overly excited when we are talking about a decent run defense like DET's. Johnson completes 26 of 34 for only 210 yds (5.9). Also note Roy Williams left real early in this one.
At this point I believe it was offense 4 TDS and defense 3 TDS(special teams - Longwell one TD).
Since the two best offenses NE has played would be Denver and Cincy the fact they allowed 30 points combined in those games and held Cincy under 300 of yards off offense doesnt bode well for Minny tonite. Running room will be tough to come by and that leaves a ton of short routes for Brad Johnson to find. Now he is listed as having a bad hammy and that cant be good no matter how severe or not it is. Johnson is good at holding onto the ball though he does have 4 INTS and 5 fumbles to date...he has lost just 1 fumble.
As the owner of the Vikings Defense in my fantasy league I am quite aware of how well they have played and I look for that continue tonite. What concerns is Minnys offense not moving the chains and it eventually wearing down. No matter what one says or thinks the NE offense is still in much better shape then Minnys.
You want to quick recap the NE season. It goes like this. Open up versus buffalo and play awful in the 1st H for whatever erason. When push comes to shove they stop Buffalo on a 4th and 1 and use the momentum to win 19-17 while statistically dominanting the 2nd H.
They then travel to NY where they abuse the J_E_T_S and lead 24-0 though they were referee aided on the last TD. I was in attendance. I preach about how sports is about momentum. Well Cotchery highlight catch that went for a TD was a spark that ignited the jets rally. Remember though they were down 24-0....mid 3rd quarter and rhe Stadium began to empty out saying game over.......
Then they host Denver and get shutdown 17-7. Personally I feel denver and NE are basically equal....neutral field I owuld say NE is -1.5 and I backed DENV huge that Sunday nite.....so nothing really shocking to me. Two tough defenses with basically average offenses and teh points were to good to pass up. As good as Minny D is I dont think its as good as NE or Denvers......yet.
After the home loss they go on to spank Cincy 38-13 aided by 2 4th Q Palmerfumbled which resulted in 14 quick points that iced the game. As with the NYJ game MAroney and Dillon were just to much and Brady makes the plays when he needs to thru the air. Last 2 weeks vs Miami and Buffalo they played grat defense and watched the opposing QB's make costly turnovers which the NE offense took advantage off..
From a turnover standpoint if you said the defenses were equal qwould you agree johnson is more likely to get picked off instead of Brady. Would you agree Taylor or Moore is more likely to fumble rather then NE's duo?? I would think so....
I think both teams will have struggles scoring tonite. I think Maroney coming home coupled with Dillon have a better chance to run then Taylor does vs NE. With 4 options @ WR Brady seems better prepared to make plays in the passing game...9looks like Minny 3 rd option is McMullen).
While the numbers say Minny is real tough against the run and I agree the numbers are skewed when you realize the backs they have faced. Minny has played some very average offenses and worse is the QB's are also very average....while NE offense lacks explosion there is little avg about Brady , Maroney and Dillon.
You can see NE seems to enjoy playing in domes and on turf...winning 9 straight in such conditions. Brady said its almost a relief to play on turf after the slosh of NE's home field. Maroney gets to return home after his outstanding career @ University of Minnesota. Chad Jackson gives them 4 WR's to look for.
As for injuries I have that feeling that Seymour traveled to MINN as a decoy. He probably wont play but I am only guessing. The rest of the NE injury list looks like it will be able to play unless I missed something which you can definetly point out to me. For Minny I would expect everyone outside of Marcus Robinson to play.
I do not believe that NE will overlook a MNF game @ Minnesota(Indy on deck) with Belichek calling the shots.....do you??
The Line??
Think about this Minnesota was only -2 vs Carolina and w/o Steve Smith. Smith is so valuable to that offense I would believe that if he Plays Carolina is a small favorite. Carolina is stronger then Minnesota. Chicago was 3.5 to Minny in the dome? Does anyone believe looking at CHI play away they are better on the road then NE? I sure dont. Minny was only -6.5 at home vs DET and was very lucky to win that. So to me the fair line is -2.5 or -3 here which is where it opened.
Its been down to -1 for a few days and nomatter what you believe or see its getting fairly even action at -1. Which IMO is a soft number....so if the betting public 'buys' into a soft number they tend to be wrong..cause IMO they average joe doesnt understand what a line is or how to devise one. After much work and thought minny would only have value at + 3.5 or better. Its INSANE to believe that Minny should be favored there big win is versus Seattle when its star RB was out and start QB got hurt and didnt play the 2nd H.....otherwise they lost to Buffalo and Chicago....edged out Carolina , Det and Washington.....
Be back shortly with my plays...I already played Minny +3 but will middle that . I played the under @ 38.5 thinking it wont go higher so I wish I waited as it is no w40....
Gimme a few ..........GOOD LUCK
Plays:
Vikings + 3-125 (5x) from earlier in the week but played NE -118 ML (5x) to middle.
(Net cost -1.25)
Under 38.5 -105 (3x) ~ (38) Win +3.00 & 2nd H middle Over 17.5 -113 (3x) (21) Win +3.00
Under 40.5 -110 (3x) ~ (38) Win +3.00
Under 19 +100 Minny team(2.5x) (7) Win +2.50
NE ML -118 (8x) & -117(2x) NE Win 31-7 +10.00
1st half Under 20 -110 (2x) WIN 17-0 NE. (+2.00)
My last game comment is while the DOME is unchartered territory for NE this season it can't be a huge concern for me with NE coaching staff. The Moon ceremony coupled with MNF atmosphere is toiugh to overcome but I feel this number is soft not inflated....Waiting to see what the line does BUT how can anyone say there is anything bout equal action at -1? the vig and the number hasnt moved.......sharps?? are just respected bettors NOT all knowing beings from a different galaxy. if the data is correct the sharp shave Minny +3 or maybe 3.5 not Minny +1 IMHO..
I'll be updating and looking for 20-16 but 20-13 possibly...
Also a book like BoDog has Minny +3 -130 IMO to draw the suckers.....most people wont play the Pats there if they can do better everywhere else....just another sign IMO to how bogus the percentages of some of these sites are.....money is split on this game @ -1....and has alot of Minny +3 money.....so who do you think th ebooks need tonite???
New England travels to Minnesota
Line is around NE -1-113 (ML -120) / 39.5 -105
There is nothing I enjoy more then the opportunity to handicap one game. Its so hard on Saturday and Sunday to express all my thoughts on the games when there are so damn many to talk about. I wish I could just think it and it would transpose itself onto my blog. The weekday games give me the opportunity to focus on one thing.
Anyway earlier in the week I like many thought wow....Vikes +3.....thats a bargain...so I grabbed in at +3 -125 I believe. Then it started to sink and was wondering why? Why did it seem like value? Was it cause they traveled to Seattle and won SU fairly convincingly? My answer was no because I had backed Minnesota in that game cause SEATTLE's Defense had been unraveling week after week. So lets look at this...
We look at what NE has done and you see a 5-1 record. You go underneath the numbers and realize they beat Buffalo twice , Miami and the Jets all really bottomfeeders in the AFC. They lost at home to Denver in a situation where they were overvalued cause of the concerns about Denvers offense. The following week @ Cincy they were extremely undervalued after the home loss and some costly turnovers led them to a convincing SU win away. So really we have seen typical NE football. Solid defense all season but it probably has gotten better as the weeks wore on. Has the offense improved? I am not ready to say that even though I love what Chad Jackson does for them. They scored 4 times last week but 1 was thanks to a short field and the others were all were they started on the NE 30 or better. My concen is can a team repeatedley go 80 or more yards up and down a field? To me NE still hasnt shown me the ability to do so. There key is great defense leading to either a short field on a turnover or putting the opposing offense ina situation where they have to punt deep from there own territory causing a starting point for the NE offense. Looking at Cincy there high offensive output where they scoed the last 24 points of the game they caused 2 Palmer fumbles to start inside the Cincy 20. The Bengals also are thin on defense with tons of injuries @ LB so they are no comparision to Minny's D.
You look @ Minny and see 31 @ Seattle....Seattle's defense is in company with Cincy for whatever reason. Ever since that big lead against NYG at home they have failed to stop anyone(think about the end of the STL game the previous week). So 30 points isnt all that impressive. Its even less impressive when you realize there last TD was off a Wallace fumble who was playing in relief of an injured Hasselback. Then they had a 95 YD TD run. Folks 95 yd TDs whether run or pass are more often then not fluke plays.....someones misses a block or assignment and in a blink your screwed. They had a 40 yd pass to Marcus Robinson who in some ways is there deep threat cause even though Williamson has the legs to stretch the field they hands and coordination arent there yet. The point is Robinson is OUT with a back injury leaving Taylor and Williamson to start both capable WR's but both were concussed last week. Another TD came off a Melwede Moore pass....not sure those type plays work against NE.
The previous week they were outplayed by DET badly but somehow got two 4th Q defensive TDS and won by 6.....Previous to that they couldnt muster enough offense and lost @ Buffalo , they couldnt muster enough offense and lost at home to CHI by 3 when the offensive couldnt produce a TD. They won @ Was in week 1 IMO cause Shawn Springs was out. The offense didnt do much except attack Rumph and Watson @ CB and those two have proven to be horrible and every team is attacking them now. They struggled to beat Carolina without Steve Smith and needed a silly play on a punt return to get there only TD. Actually after that they needed a FG fake and pass from Longwell to sc0re there only TD.
So lets recap Minny season:
Win @ Wash 19-16 ~ They score 2 TDs on offense. Chester Taylor manages only 31c 88yds and a long of 10 yards. Also Hall missed a 47 yder at the end of regulation to tie.
Win Vs Car 16-13 ~ Panthers dont have Smith and led 13-6 with about 11 to play. Minny punting from inside there 10 kick it Gamble who tries a lateral and gives Minny the ball at about the Carolina 20...On 4th and 5 from the 16 longwell throws a TD to Richard Owens..
Lose vs Chi 19-16 ~ Basically up 16-12 Taylor trying to run clock fumbled and gave CHI the short field which Grossman took advantage off after giving Minny the lead with ahorrible INT that went for 6. Minny had 3 FGS on offense but 1 was largely due to a short field off a turnover. Brad Johnson was decent that day 21 of 31 194 yds. Taylor 20c for 74yds but one run was 24 yards so do the math.....19c for 50 on the rest.
Lose @ Buff 12-17 ~ They score a late TD with 3 minutes left but cant get the 2 pt conversion. Here Taylor 10c - 23yds ....Johnson 267 yards but 44 attempts (6.1 avg). The curious part is the offense did nothing 128 yds thru 3 quarters and trailed 17-6 but managed 180 yds of offense in the 4th quarter......was it that prevent defense coupled with the playing with a lead mentality that finally allowed Minny to move the ball?? Seems that way to me...
win vs Det 26-17 ~ two 4th Q turnoves become 13 quick points for minny. They started dow 17-3 but johnson hit Talor for a short TD before the wheels unraveled for DET. Tayor had a solid day 26c 123 yds but not getting overly excited when we are talking about a decent run defense like DET's. Johnson completes 26 of 34 for only 210 yds (5.9). Also note Roy Williams left real early in this one.
At this point I believe it was offense 4 TDS and defense 3 TDS(special teams - Longwell one TD).
Since the two best offenses NE has played would be Denver and Cincy the fact they allowed 30 points combined in those games and held Cincy under 300 of yards off offense doesnt bode well for Minny tonite. Running room will be tough to come by and that leaves a ton of short routes for Brad Johnson to find. Now he is listed as having a bad hammy and that cant be good no matter how severe or not it is. Johnson is good at holding onto the ball though he does have 4 INTS and 5 fumbles to date...he has lost just 1 fumble.
As the owner of the Vikings Defense in my fantasy league I am quite aware of how well they have played and I look for that continue tonite. What concerns is Minnys offense not moving the chains and it eventually wearing down. No matter what one says or thinks the NE offense is still in much better shape then Minnys.
You want to quick recap the NE season. It goes like this. Open up versus buffalo and play awful in the 1st H for whatever erason. When push comes to shove they stop Buffalo on a 4th and 1 and use the momentum to win 19-17 while statistically dominanting the 2nd H.
They then travel to NY where they abuse the J_E_T_S and lead 24-0 though they were referee aided on the last TD. I was in attendance. I preach about how sports is about momentum. Well Cotchery highlight catch that went for a TD was a spark that ignited the jets rally. Remember though they were down 24-0....mid 3rd quarter and rhe Stadium began to empty out saying game over.......
Then they host Denver and get shutdown 17-7. Personally I feel denver and NE are basically equal....neutral field I owuld say NE is -1.5 and I backed DENV huge that Sunday nite.....so nothing really shocking to me. Two tough defenses with basically average offenses and teh points were to good to pass up. As good as Minny D is I dont think its as good as NE or Denvers......yet.
After the home loss they go on to spank Cincy 38-13 aided by 2 4th Q Palmerfumbled which resulted in 14 quick points that iced the game. As with the NYJ game MAroney and Dillon were just to much and Brady makes the plays when he needs to thru the air. Last 2 weeks vs Miami and Buffalo they played grat defense and watched the opposing QB's make costly turnovers which the NE offense took advantage off..
From a turnover standpoint if you said the defenses were equal qwould you agree johnson is more likely to get picked off instead of Brady. Would you agree Taylor or Moore is more likely to fumble rather then NE's duo?? I would think so....
I think both teams will have struggles scoring tonite. I think Maroney coming home coupled with Dillon have a better chance to run then Taylor does vs NE. With 4 options @ WR Brady seems better prepared to make plays in the passing game...9looks like Minny 3 rd option is McMullen).
While the numbers say Minny is real tough against the run and I agree the numbers are skewed when you realize the backs they have faced. Minny has played some very average offenses and worse is the QB's are also very average....while NE offense lacks explosion there is little avg about Brady , Maroney and Dillon.
You can see NE seems to enjoy playing in domes and on turf...winning 9 straight in such conditions. Brady said its almost a relief to play on turf after the slosh of NE's home field. Maroney gets to return home after his outstanding career @ University of Minnesota. Chad Jackson gives them 4 WR's to look for.
As for injuries I have that feeling that Seymour traveled to MINN as a decoy. He probably wont play but I am only guessing. The rest of the NE injury list looks like it will be able to play unless I missed something which you can definetly point out to me. For Minny I would expect everyone outside of Marcus Robinson to play.
I do not believe that NE will overlook a MNF game @ Minnesota(Indy on deck) with Belichek calling the shots.....do you??
The Line??
Think about this Minnesota was only -2 vs Carolina and w/o Steve Smith. Smith is so valuable to that offense I would believe that if he Plays Carolina is a small favorite. Carolina is stronger then Minnesota. Chicago was 3.5 to Minny in the dome? Does anyone believe looking at CHI play away they are better on the road then NE? I sure dont. Minny was only -6.5 at home vs DET and was very lucky to win that. So to me the fair line is -2.5 or -3 here which is where it opened.
Its been down to -1 for a few days and nomatter what you believe or see its getting fairly even action at -1. Which IMO is a soft number....so if the betting public 'buys' into a soft number they tend to be wrong..cause IMO they average joe doesnt understand what a line is or how to devise one. After much work and thought minny would only have value at + 3.5 or better. Its INSANE to believe that Minny should be favored there big win is versus Seattle when its star RB was out and start QB got hurt and didnt play the 2nd H.....otherwise they lost to Buffalo and Chicago....edged out Carolina , Det and Washington.....
Be back shortly with my plays...I already played Minny +3 but will middle that . I played the under @ 38.5 thinking it wont go higher so I wish I waited as it is no w40....
Gimme a few ..........GOOD LUCK
Plays:
Vikings + 3-125 (5x) from earlier in the week but played NE -118 ML (5x) to middle.
(Net cost -1.25)
Under 38.5 -105 (3x) ~ (38) Win +3.00 & 2nd H middle Over 17.5 -113 (3x) (21) Win +3.00
Under 40.5 -110 (3x) ~ (38) Win +3.00
Under 19 +100 Minny team(2.5x) (7) Win +2.50
NE ML -118 (8x) & -117(2x) NE Win 31-7 +10.00
1st half Under 20 -110 (2x) WIN 17-0 NE. (+2.00)
I think I did well....sure abit lucky with the unders but I had that game firly well pegged except for MIN pass defense. Really won everything ....+6 on the Under , +3 2nd Over which was a hedge , +2 1sT H under , +2.5 Minny under team 19 , +10 NE ML......folks that +23.5x but it cost me -1.25 to middle my original play on Minny..
Net +22.25 units tonite! Makes up for a so-so Sunday! Hope I was of help
My last game comment is while the DOME is unchartered territory for NE this season it can't be a huge concern for me with NE coaching staff. The Moon ceremony coupled with MNF atmosphere is toiugh to overcome but I feel this number is soft not inflated....Waiting to see what the line does BUT how can anyone say there is anything bout equal action at -1? the vig and the number hasnt moved.......sharps?? are just respected bettors NOT all knowing beings from a different galaxy. if the data is correct the sharp shave Minny +3 or maybe 3.5 not Minny +1 IMHO..
I'll be updating and looking for 20-16 but 20-13 possibly...
Also a book like BoDog has Minny +3 -130 IMO to draw the suckers.....most people wont play the Pats there if they can do better everywhere else....just another sign IMO to how bogus the percentages of some of these sites are.....money is split on this game @ -1....and has alot of Minny +3 money.....so who do you think th ebooks need tonite???
Saturday, October 28, 2006
NFL week 8 Sunday
Not sure I wil be around before the 1 PM kicks....so here is basically what I am thinking and almsot definetly doing. Line moves can dictate decisions.....
Houston @ Tenn
Gonna play Texans @ +3.5 even if I have to buy it. Played the Under 42 already both 3 units.
Jax @ Philly
With Stroud out this defense is thin but laying 9 NOT interested. played -6.5 -110 for 3 units a couple days ago. Would have loved to have been the Under 43 but now 39.5
ATL @ Cincy
playing Bengals if I have to buy -3 for 5 units at least(5-8). Played the Over 44 for 2 units
TB @ NYG
Played the under 41 for 3 units. real like NY here but trying for a better number if we see 8's definetly a 3 unit play
SF @ Chi
If Mike brown were healthy no doubt I would lay it. With him out the secondary makes me nervous so no plays on this game. While 16 looks high I rather focus on the fact SF was +10 at home vs SD and Chi was -11 @ Zona...plus the fact the avg score in CHI is like 38-7.
Ari@ GB
Played the Cards +4.5 for 5 units. Basically with Fitz out and every WR outside of Driver shelved the over would scare me...probably rather go Und 45.
Sea@ KC
Played the Hawks +6 for 5 units...if Croyle doesnt start I am only playing half of it. Like the over but thats gambling!
Balt @ NO
Definetly playing Ravens here 3 to 5 units. Liking the under at 37 or better..
Then @ 4PM
8x on over 41 -122 STL
6x on STL +10 and 6x on SD -9 -110
4x on Under 38.5 Oakland.... Oakland +9 (3x)
6x on Browns -1-116
10x on Denver my fav play of the day -2.5....wanted to go over but I missed it at37.
I should be around at some point . Just consider this my Cliffs Note version
Teaser(4x) SD , Denver and Over Denver.
Early starts were:
Under 42 -110 Tenny(3x) & Houston +3.5 -120 (3x)
Philly -6.5 -110 (3x)
Cincy -3-125 (6x) & Over 44 -110 (2x)
Seahwaks +6 +100 (2.5x)
Giants -9 -105 (2x) & Under 41 -105 (3x)
ARi +4.5 -110 (5x)
Ravens ML +118 (5x)
Plus whatever team totals I had posted. GL
NCAAF~
+21-105 UConn (4x)
Well I apologize for not being around and doing a better job discussing the games. Just couldnt get internet access were I was.
Todays recap~
Team totals
Under 22 -104 Tenny (1x) (28) Loss -1.04
Under 18.5 Jax -110(2.5x) (13) Win +2.50
Over 19 .5-115 ATL (1x) (29) Win +1.00
Under 13 SF -113 (2x) (10) Win +2.00
Over 18 Rams -112 (2x) (24) Win +2.00
Net +6.46
1 PM starts
Under 42 -110 Tenny(3x) L & Houston +3.5 -120 (3x) L -6.90
Philly -6.5 -110 (3x) L -3.30
Cincy -3-125 (6x) L & Over 44 -110 (2x) W net-5.50
Seahawks +6 +100 (2.5x) L -2.5 (had the other half middled -3.5 & +6)
Giants -9 -105 (2x) W& Under 41 -105 (3x) W +5.00
Cards +4.5 -110 (5x) L -5.50
Ravens ML +118 (5x) W +5.90
Net -12.80
4 Pm starts
8x on over 41 -122 STL W +8.00
4x on Under 38.5 -105Oakland W +4.00
Oakland +9 -110(3x) W +3.00
6x on Browns -1-116 W +6.00
10x on Denver-2.5 -110 L -11.10
Teaser(4x) SD , Denver and Over Denver W +4.00
Net +10.90 & +4. for the teaser
No play at nite although I liked dallas.
Sides & totals Net -1.90
Teasers +4.00
Team Totals +6.46
So +8.56 for everything not great but a couple close misses in Cincy and Denver are like a 35 unit swing......
Oh and UConn +21 (4x) ATS win L 24-13 +4.00
Not sure I wil be around before the 1 PM kicks....so here is basically what I am thinking and almsot definetly doing. Line moves can dictate decisions.....
Houston @ Tenn
Gonna play Texans @ +3.5 even if I have to buy it. Played the Under 42 already both 3 units.
Jax @ Philly
With Stroud out this defense is thin but laying 9 NOT interested. played -6.5 -110 for 3 units a couple days ago. Would have loved to have been the Under 43 but now 39.5
ATL @ Cincy
playing Bengals if I have to buy -3 for 5 units at least(5-8). Played the Over 44 for 2 units
TB @ NYG
Played the under 41 for 3 units. real like NY here but trying for a better number if we see 8's definetly a 3 unit play
SF @ Chi
If Mike brown were healthy no doubt I would lay it. With him out the secondary makes me nervous so no plays on this game. While 16 looks high I rather focus on the fact SF was +10 at home vs SD and Chi was -11 @ Zona...plus the fact the avg score in CHI is like 38-7.
Ari@ GB
Played the Cards +4.5 for 5 units. Basically with Fitz out and every WR outside of Driver shelved the over would scare me...probably rather go Und 45.
Sea@ KC
Played the Hawks +6 for 5 units...if Croyle doesnt start I am only playing half of it. Like the over but thats gambling!
Balt @ NO
Definetly playing Ravens here 3 to 5 units. Liking the under at 37 or better..
Then @ 4PM
8x on over 41 -122 STL
6x on STL +10 and 6x on SD -9 -110
4x on Under 38.5 Oakland.... Oakland +9 (3x)
6x on Browns -1-116
10x on Denver my fav play of the day -2.5....wanted to go over but I missed it at37.
I should be around at some point . Just consider this my Cliffs Note version
Teaser(4x) SD , Denver and Over Denver.
Early starts were:
Under 42 -110 Tenny(3x) & Houston +3.5 -120 (3x)
Philly -6.5 -110 (3x)
Cincy -3-125 (6x) & Over 44 -110 (2x)
Seahwaks +6 +100 (2.5x)
Giants -9 -105 (2x) & Under 41 -105 (3x)
ARi +4.5 -110 (5x)
Ravens ML +118 (5x)
Plus whatever team totals I had posted. GL
NCAAF~
+21-105 UConn (4x)
Well I apologize for not being around and doing a better job discussing the games. Just couldnt get internet access were I was.
Todays recap~
Team totals
Under 22 -104 Tenny (1x) (28) Loss -1.04
Under 18.5 Jax -110(2.5x) (13) Win +2.50
Over 19 .5-115 ATL (1x) (29) Win +1.00
Under 13 SF -113 (2x) (10) Win +2.00
Over 18 Rams -112 (2x) (24) Win +2.00
Net +6.46
1 PM starts
Under 42 -110 Tenny(3x) L & Houston +3.5 -120 (3x) L -6.90
Philly -6.5 -110 (3x) L -3.30
Cincy -3-125 (6x) L & Over 44 -110 (2x) W net-5.50
Seahawks +6 +100 (2.5x) L -2.5 (had the other half middled -3.5 & +6)
Giants -9 -105 (2x) W& Under 41 -105 (3x) W +5.00
Cards +4.5 -110 (5x) L -5.50
Ravens ML +118 (5x) W +5.90
Net -12.80
4 Pm starts
8x on over 41 -122 STL W +8.00
4x on Under 38.5 -105Oakland W +4.00
Oakland +9 -110(3x) W +3.00
6x on Browns -1-116 W +6.00
10x on Denver-2.5 -110 L -11.10
Teaser(4x) SD , Denver and Over Denver W +4.00
Net +10.90 & +4. for the teaser
No play at nite although I liked dallas.
Sides & totals Net -1.90
Teasers +4.00
Team Totals +6.46
So +8.56 for everything not great but a couple close misses in Cincy and Denver are like a 35 unit swing......
Oh and UConn +21 (4x) ATS win L 24-13 +4.00
Thee Week 9 College Football Cliffs Notes Version
With all the stuff I have going on a busy day an obsessive - compulsive , perfectionist freak like me needs organization. So here I will simpy list the plays by time and comment in the orginial thread. I added some DOGS that I thought were to FAT or is PHAT? Anyway...
Noon Starts and 1 PM's:
Missouri ML -115 (3x) Loss 26-10 (-3.45) said that under!
Over 55 -105 Indiana & Mich State(3x) 1stH 27.5 -105 (1x) Win (+4.00)
Virginia +105 (3x) Win 14-7 (+3.15)
Illinois +22.5 -110 (1x) 1st H +12.5 -105(1x) *new* ATS Win Wiskyu wins 30-24(+2.00)
Northern Illinois +17 +102 (5x) *back to 5x* ATS Win Iowa wins 24-14 (+5.00)
Under 48 -110 Penn State (2x) 12-0 Penn State (+2.00) like PSU
Northwestern +35 -120 (2x) 1st H +19.5 -101 (1x) ATS win 17-3 final (+3.00)
Duke + 10-120 (2x) Loss dumb play! (-2.40)
Buffalo +36 -110 (3x) Loss 41-0 (-3.30)
Temple +20 -105 (5x) ML +840 (1x) Temple wins SU 28-14 (+13.40)
Net +23.40
Team Totals :
Under 22.5 -108 Oklahoma (1x) Loss (26)
Under 17 -108 Navy (1x) Win (14)
Over 31 -108 mich St(1x) Loss (21)
Over 24 -108 Indiana (1x) Win (46)
Under 39.5 -108 BC (1.5x) Loss (41)
Under 35.5 -108 BG (2x) Win (14)
Over 16.5 -108 Temple (1.5x) Win (28)
Net +1.72
2 PM starts
Air Force +10 -115 (1.5x) *new* Loss 33-14 (-1.73)
Over 55 -105 Air Force and BYU (5x) Loss(-5.25)
Army +6 -104 (3x) Loss 42-28 (-3.12)
Over Tulane & Army 50 -105 (3x) (70) Win (+3.00)
Under Kansas & Colorado 43 -120 (1.5x) Win (35) (+1.50)
Miami-Ohio -3-105 (2x) (-2.10) Lost 20-17
Net -7.70
Team Totals
Over 27.5 -116 Tulane (1x) Win (42)
Net +1.00
3:30PM's
North Carolina +9 -110 (1x) ML +310 (1x) Lost 24-17 Wash
Under 42 -112 Wake (3x) Win (41) (+3.00)
Miami U +6 -110 (3x) Loss -3.30 31-23...said over 37!
Georgia +14 -120 (1.5x) ATS Win 21-14 (+1.50)
Over 51 -105 Nebraska & Okl State (5x) Win(64?) (+5.00)
Over 57 -105 UCF & Houston (4x) Win (76?)(+4.00)
North Texas +10.5 -108 (1x) ATS Win L14-6(+1.00)
Iowa State +5.5 -110 (3x) Loss 31-10 (-3.30)
Net:+7.90(+23.60 to this point)
Team Totals
Over 15.5 Miami -108 (2x) Win(23)
Under 24.5 -108 Wake (1.5x) Win(24)
Net +3.50(+6.22 up to this)
7PM's
UCLA -114 (3x) Loss -3.42
Arizona State -120 (4x) Win +4.00
Texas Tech +12 -110 (3x) ATS Win +3.00
UL Monroe +36 -110 (2x) ATS Win +2.00
Baylor +5 -110 (5x) L -5.50
Toledo +4.5 -110 (1x) Win +1.00
TCU -6.5 -110 (2x) Win +2.00
South Carolina +4 -110 (2x) L -2.20
Under 71.5 -109 Hawaii (3x) L -3.27
Net -2.39 (+21.21 sides & totals)
Team Totals
Over 20.5 -108 East Carolina (1x) L -1.08
Net -1.08 (+5.14x on these all day)
With all the stuff I have going on a busy day an obsessive - compulsive , perfectionist freak like me needs organization. So here I will simpy list the plays by time and comment in the orginial thread. I added some DOGS that I thought were to FAT or is PHAT? Anyway...
Noon Starts and 1 PM's:
Missouri ML -115 (3x) Loss 26-10 (-3.45) said that under!
Over 55 -105 Indiana & Mich State(3x) 1stH 27.5 -105 (1x) Win (+4.00)
Virginia +105 (3x) Win 14-7 (+3.15)
Illinois +22.5 -110 (1x) 1st H +12.5 -105(1x) *new* ATS Win Wiskyu wins 30-24(+2.00)
Northern Illinois +17 +102 (5x) *back to 5x* ATS Win Iowa wins 24-14 (+5.00)
Under 48 -110 Penn State (2x) 12-0 Penn State (+2.00) like PSU
Northwestern +35 -120 (2x) 1st H +19.5 -101 (1x) ATS win 17-3 final (+3.00)
Duke + 10-120 (2x) Loss dumb play! (-2.40)
Buffalo +36 -110 (3x) Loss 41-0 (-3.30)
Temple +20 -105 (5x) ML +840 (1x) Temple wins SU 28-14 (+13.40)
Net +23.40
Team Totals :
Under 22.5 -108 Oklahoma (1x) Loss (26)
Under 17 -108 Navy (1x) Win (14)
Over 31 -108 mich St(1x) Loss (21)
Over 24 -108 Indiana (1x) Win (46)
Under 39.5 -108 BC (1.5x) Loss (41)
Under 35.5 -108 BG (2x) Win (14)
Over 16.5 -108 Temple (1.5x) Win (28)
Net +1.72
2 PM starts
Air Force +10 -115 (1.5x) *new* Loss 33-14 (-1.73)
Over 55 -105 Air Force and BYU (5x) Loss(-5.25)
Army +6 -104 (3x) Loss 42-28 (-3.12)
Over Tulane & Army 50 -105 (3x) (70) Win (+3.00)
Under Kansas & Colorado 43 -120 (1.5x) Win (35) (+1.50)
Miami-Ohio -3-105 (2x) (-2.10) Lost 20-17
Net -7.70
Team Totals
Over 27.5 -116 Tulane (1x) Win (42)
Net +1.00
3:30PM's
North Carolina +9 -110 (1x) ML +310 (1x) Lost 24-17 Wash
Under 42 -112 Wake (3x) Win (41) (+3.00)
Miami U +6 -110 (3x) Loss -3.30 31-23...said over 37!
Georgia +14 -120 (1.5x) ATS Win 21-14 (+1.50)
Over 51 -105 Nebraska & Okl State (5x) Win(64?) (+5.00)
Over 57 -105 UCF & Houston (4x) Win (76?)(+4.00)
North Texas +10.5 -108 (1x) ATS Win L14-6(+1.00)
Iowa State +5.5 -110 (3x) Loss 31-10 (-3.30)
Net:+7.90(+23.60 to this point)
Team Totals
Over 15.5 Miami -108 (2x) Win(23)
Under 24.5 -108 Wake (1.5x) Win(24)
Net +3.50(+6.22 up to this)
7PM's
UCLA -114 (3x) Loss -3.42
Arizona State -120 (4x) Win +4.00
Texas Tech +12 -110 (3x) ATS Win +3.00
UL Monroe +36 -110 (2x) ATS Win +2.00
Baylor +5 -110 (5x) L -5.50
Toledo +4.5 -110 (1x) Win +1.00
TCU -6.5 -110 (2x) Win +2.00
South Carolina +4 -110 (2x) L -2.20
Under 71.5 -109 Hawaii (3x) L -3.27
Net -2.39 (+21.21 sides & totals)
Team Totals
Over 20.5 -108 East Carolina (1x) L -1.08
Net -1.08 (+5.14x on these all day)
Friday, October 27, 2006
Game #5 World Series
Really short on time an unprepared for a detailed discussion. from early on the week I liked Verlander in this spot and cant say exactly why. Probably cause I figured the line would wind up cheaper then it should be. Really this game shhould be -130 DET imo. Lets just remember that he was -190 at home versus Reyes who grades out as pricer SP then Weaver(probably 15 cents stronger).
From baseball standpoint I like that Verlander has worked on his mechanics and supposedly fixed a few things(ie: use his lower ody which is why his arm tired out but is supposedly good now). I like that peopel are overlooking how dynamic he can be calling for Rogers to start here....which would be the wrong decision in my book. To me if Verlander can get on his game then only Pujols scares me cause I dont like the STL lineup versus power arms. The other point is I think Weaver gets hit hard tonite. It sjust a feeling that I cant backup BUT the Tigers bats looked better last nite it was there defense that killed them. They hit Weaver in Game 1 scattering 9 hits and staistically he pitched better away. Also this is more pressure IMO and he could buckle. You get into STL long and middle relief and they aent that strong.
So without much logical or factual reasoning.....
PLAY:
Detriot Tigers -119 (4x)
Over 7.5 -114 (4x)
Really short on time an unprepared for a detailed discussion. from early on the week I liked Verlander in this spot and cant say exactly why. Probably cause I figured the line would wind up cheaper then it should be. Really this game shhould be -130 DET imo. Lets just remember that he was -190 at home versus Reyes who grades out as pricer SP then Weaver(probably 15 cents stronger).
From baseball standpoint I like that Verlander has worked on his mechanics and supposedly fixed a few things(ie: use his lower ody which is why his arm tired out but is supposedly good now). I like that peopel are overlooking how dynamic he can be calling for Rogers to start here....which would be the wrong decision in my book. To me if Verlander can get on his game then only Pujols scares me cause I dont like the STL lineup versus power arms. The other point is I think Weaver gets hit hard tonite. It sjust a feeling that I cant backup BUT the Tigers bats looked better last nite it was there defense that killed them. They hit Weaver in Game 1 scattering 9 hits and staistically he pitched better away. Also this is more pressure IMO and he could buckle. You get into STL long and middle relief and they aent that strong.
So without much logical or factual reasoning.....
PLAY:
Detriot Tigers -119 (4x)
Over 7.5 -114 (4x)
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
World Series Game #4
Bonderman versus Suppan
In 10 2nd Home starts Suppan was dazzling. For some reason SD gives him trouble and he had 2 poor starts vs them at the end of the reg season and in the 1st round of the playoffs. Other then that he only pitched one poor game vs Philly(5 inn with 5 runs and 4 earned). His other starts read:
7 Inn 5H 1 run 2bb 6 K
7 1/3 Inn 4 H 1 run 1bb 7 K
7 2/3 Inn 5 H o runs 3 Bb 2 K
7 inn 6 H 1 run 4 BB 5 K
7 Inn 8 H 3 runs 0bb 6 K
7 Inn 5 H 2 runs 3 bb 2k
8 Inn 3 H 0 runs 1bb 4 K
Thats darn impressive..8 runs across 7 starts...51 innings....at least 7 each outing...
Now DET is just 3-5 after being shutout so no bounce back in there past. STL is 7-4 after throwing a shutout.
STL is 8-2 UNDER in SUPPAN's starts but the totals were always above 9 except on 2 occassions. DET is 2-6 UNDER after being shutout.
Its clear that the Tigers are struggling with the bat so what should change here??? Suppan is clearly throwing very well and shutdown the NYM in impressive fashion last week.
Bonderman has been fantastic on the road and at nite. He is 8-4 away(10-7) 3.63 ERA and 13-2 at nite(15-8 team) 3.35 ERA. For as well as he pitched away though we have another long layoff and he went 7 innings just 7 of 17 away. Which brings the pen into the equation and Zumaya and Rodney lacked command while Todd Jones scares no one.
Bonderman pitched well vs STL at home this year but he also faced a lineup with Timo Perez and John Rodriguez, oh and Gary Bennett.
Another cold nite and good chance of rain but it appears like more of the same tonite.....close game...low scoring....If bonderman cant shut STL down to 1 run or less wheres the value in the Dog then??
I didnt play the Under 8 yesterday and I cant force myself to play the Under here. I just expect more of the same which means a STL win...not getting crazy...
Interesting PROP will Todd Jones get a save? NO -240.......things that make you go Hmmmmmmmmm!
As a guy who looks for bad lines I see this as being off figured -120...which was still cheap as I had built in the public bias towards DETin that -120....remember Carpenter was at least a .25 cheap last nite.
Good Luck
PLAY :
Slight change
STL -105 (3x)
I just find it odd that the price gets cheaper yet it seems we have more STL backers.....also odd the vig on the total chanegd about 20 cents.
Dont bother watching CARDS fans this game is OVER!! Its so odd how the line moves in favor of DET and the OVER today and thats what we will seee....My play is a LOSER........sorry....would recomend playing the OVER in-game....
Shit I was wrong........Cards win 5-4! I was right about the over all those ingame plays had to pay nicely......except I kept missing it!!
GL
Bonderman versus Suppan
In 10 2nd Home starts Suppan was dazzling. For some reason SD gives him trouble and he had 2 poor starts vs them at the end of the reg season and in the 1st round of the playoffs. Other then that he only pitched one poor game vs Philly(5 inn with 5 runs and 4 earned). His other starts read:
7 Inn 5H 1 run 2bb 6 K
7 1/3 Inn 4 H 1 run 1bb 7 K
7 2/3 Inn 5 H o runs 3 Bb 2 K
7 inn 6 H 1 run 4 BB 5 K
7 Inn 8 H 3 runs 0bb 6 K
7 Inn 5 H 2 runs 3 bb 2k
8 Inn 3 H 0 runs 1bb 4 K
Thats darn impressive..8 runs across 7 starts...51 innings....at least 7 each outing...
Now DET is just 3-5 after being shutout so no bounce back in there past. STL is 7-4 after throwing a shutout.
STL is 8-2 UNDER in SUPPAN's starts but the totals were always above 9 except on 2 occassions. DET is 2-6 UNDER after being shutout.
Its clear that the Tigers are struggling with the bat so what should change here??? Suppan is clearly throwing very well and shutdown the NYM in impressive fashion last week.
Bonderman has been fantastic on the road and at nite. He is 8-4 away(10-7) 3.63 ERA and 13-2 at nite(15-8 team) 3.35 ERA. For as well as he pitched away though we have another long layoff and he went 7 innings just 7 of 17 away. Which brings the pen into the equation and Zumaya and Rodney lacked command while Todd Jones scares no one.
Bonderman pitched well vs STL at home this year but he also faced a lineup with Timo Perez and John Rodriguez, oh and Gary Bennett.
Another cold nite and good chance of rain but it appears like more of the same tonite.....close game...low scoring....If bonderman cant shut STL down to 1 run or less wheres the value in the Dog then??
I didnt play the Under 8 yesterday and I cant force myself to play the Under here. I just expect more of the same which means a STL win...not getting crazy...
Interesting PROP will Todd Jones get a save? NO -240.......things that make you go Hmmmmmmmmm!
As a guy who looks for bad lines I see this as being off figured -120...which was still cheap as I had built in the public bias towards DETin that -120....remember Carpenter was at least a .25 cheap last nite.
Good Luck
PLAY :
Slight change
STL -105 (3x)
I just find it odd that the price gets cheaper yet it seems we have more STL backers.....also odd the vig on the total chanegd about 20 cents.
Dont bother watching CARDS fans this game is OVER!! Its so odd how the line moves in favor of DET and the OVER today and thats what we will seee....My play is a LOSER........sorry....would recomend playing the OVER in-game....
Shit I was wrong........Cards win 5-4! I was right about the over all those ingame plays had to pay nicely......except I kept missing it!!
Now 8-0 in the World Series +apprx 24x.
GL
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
Tuesday Nite World Series Thoughts Game #3
Tonite we have Nate Robertson facing Chris Carpenter
Umpire Trends for Wally Bell
-Home team is 55-23 L78
-Tigers have lost 12 of past 16 at nite with Bell behind the dish
-Home team is 19-7 L26 interleague games with Bell
-Home team is 16-5 L21 at nite
Both teams are 52 -33 on the road for DET and STL at home.
Robertson has not pitched since 10/10 and its hard to say how he will respond. I tend to believe that at this point in the season these guys dont mind the extra rest. You cant really say what type of command they will have but generally most of the guys have been the same SP's in the playoffs on long rest they were all season IMO.
Lets back track abit:
Carpenter at home in 2006:
10/8 SD 7 Innings 7 Hits 2 earned runs 3Bb 5 K's.
9/26 SD 7 Innings 12 Hits 6 earned runs 2BB 6 K's
9/16 SF 7 Innings 5 hits 1 earned run 2Bb 9K's.
9/11 Hou 9 Inn 6 hits 0 earned runs 2 BB 6K's.
9/1 Pitt 9 Inn 3Hits 1earned run 0BB 8Ks.
8/26 Chi 8 Inn 2 hits 1 earned runs 1BB 5 K's.
8/15 Cin 9 Inn 4 hits 0 earned runs 0 Bb 6 K's.
8/4 Milw 6 inn 7 Hits 4 earned runs 0Bb 3 K's.
7/19 Atl 7 inn 5 hits 2 earned runs 0Bb 6 K's.
7/14 LAD 9 Inn 2Hits 0 earned runs 0 Bb 7 K's
He won all the 2nd H starts EXCEPT the two were he actually allowed some runs in. That 8-2 in 10 starts. He allowed a total of 7 RUNs in 8 starts(65 innings) that were wins!!! His ERA was 0.97!!! He allowed 10 runs in the 2 losses(13 innings).
First half:
6/28 Cle 7 Inn 5 Hits 1 earned run 1 BB 4 K
6/16 Col 7 inn 7 hits 1 earned run 1 Bb 4 K
6/6 Cin 5 Inn 9 Hits 3 earned runs 2 BB 5 K
5/14 Ari 6 Inn 5 hits 0earned (3runs) 1bb 4 K
5/9 Col 7 inn 4 H 2 earned runs 6 bb 6K's
4/29 Was 7 inn 9 hits 1 earned runs 0 bb 3 K
4/24 Pitt 6 Inn 8 hits 2 earned runs 1bb 3 K
4/14 Cin 8 Inn 4hits 1 earned runs 3bb 6K
First half 5-3 ...7 earned runs in 34 innings for 1.85 era in his wins. In his losses 4 earned runs ( 7runs) in 19 innings..
So in conclusion he allowed more then 3 Runs in just 2 home starts over the entire season, he allowed 3 runs exactly on 2 ocassions. The other 14 home starst he allowed 2 runs or less. he went 6 innings three times and 5 times once. Otherwise he went at least 7 innings. His last reg season start versus SD he was basically asked to win or lose the game. The pen was in shambles and the Cards deperate for a WIN. So basically he was hung out to dry IMO.
In 2 World Series games thus far we have seen the tigers score 4 times and twice on solo HR's by Monroe.
For the season Carpenter recieved 4.33 runs and allowed 2.44.
He went 9-4 (STL 13-5) with a 1.85 ERA. With 12 of 18 going under. With a WHIP slightily below 1.00.
Robertson pitched wll on the road and Inter league play. He was 7-6 (DET 7-10) on the road. He received 4.29 runs and allowed 3.88. Away 11 of 17 went away and his numbers are just as solid if NOT better with regards to nite splits.
In the 2nd Half of the season I documented STL troubles with LHP but they did go 8-5 at home(plus 1-1 in the playoffs) in the 2nd H as compared to 0-9 away. In 2006 Carpenter faced a LHP at home on 5 occassions with 4 Unders receiving 3,2,3,0 and 7 runs of support.
With regards to Roberston never facing STL or even many of its hitters you would think he has a nice edge.
Based on the fact that STL typically performs somewhat better at home versus LHP , based on the fact the Tigers are not hitting well and going against probably the toughest SP in a home park and are undervalued @ -143 I think STL is the play. I love the fact we could see Wilson and taguchi in the lineup been calling for that since mid-mets series. With regards to the line even when DET was rolling back in June Carpenter was favored -120 against Verlander. Really no reason other then public hype that surrounded DET before the series that this game is nOT at least -165 IMO.
Play: Cards -143 (7x now 6x) & Under 3.5 +105 (2.5x) Tigers team
Looking at others....game total @ 8 runs was probably a play but not 7.5 . Also got a little nervous with the fact that this line wnet straight down yesterday and slowly creeped up today. What I take from that is usually the sharp bettors hit DET early for whatever reason and Joe Pub is playing STL all day today.....just something to be aware of. If I didnt reduce it a bit I would kick myself if I missed something , althouh I dont feel I have.
I realize I didnt talk much about Robertson but he deserves mention. He tends to be either very good or very bad...think at least 6 times he allowed at least 6 runs and 5 runs another 2 times. For the most part he had just 3 bad starts on the road ..@ NY in the divisional series , and 5 runs on two ocassions but still managed 6 and 7 innings.
He did extremely well against 4 NL Central teams (Hou , ChiC , Cincy, and Milw). In those 4 stafrts just 4 earned in 28 innings but all 4 in 13 2/3 away (Milw and Chic). All 4 went UNDER though. hile he was unscored upon in Oakland I didnt like the wayhe pitched. He battled but 9 baserunners in 5 innings basically left him with 3 consecutive poor outings...
He deserves credit but I fell he is getting 2 much at this time.
Tonite we have Nate Robertson facing Chris Carpenter
Umpire Trends for Wally Bell
-Home team is 55-23 L78
-Tigers have lost 12 of past 16 at nite with Bell behind the dish
-Home team is 19-7 L26 interleague games with Bell
-Home team is 16-5 L21 at nite
Both teams are 52 -33 on the road for DET and STL at home.
Robertson has not pitched since 10/10 and its hard to say how he will respond. I tend to believe that at this point in the season these guys dont mind the extra rest. You cant really say what type of command they will have but generally most of the guys have been the same SP's in the playoffs on long rest they were all season IMO.
Lets back track abit:
Carpenter at home in 2006:
10/8 SD 7 Innings 7 Hits 2 earned runs 3Bb 5 K's.
9/26 SD 7 Innings 12 Hits 6 earned runs 2BB 6 K's
9/16 SF 7 Innings 5 hits 1 earned run 2Bb 9K's.
9/11 Hou 9 Inn 6 hits 0 earned runs 2 BB 6K's.
9/1 Pitt 9 Inn 3Hits 1earned run 0BB 8Ks.
8/26 Chi 8 Inn 2 hits 1 earned runs 1BB 5 K's.
8/15 Cin 9 Inn 4 hits 0 earned runs 0 Bb 6 K's.
8/4 Milw 6 inn 7 Hits 4 earned runs 0Bb 3 K's.
7/19 Atl 7 inn 5 hits 2 earned runs 0Bb 6 K's.
7/14 LAD 9 Inn 2Hits 0 earned runs 0 Bb 7 K's
He won all the 2nd H starts EXCEPT the two were he actually allowed some runs in. That 8-2 in 10 starts. He allowed a total of 7 RUNs in 8 starts(65 innings) that were wins!!! His ERA was 0.97!!! He allowed 10 runs in the 2 losses(13 innings).
First half:
6/28 Cle 7 Inn 5 Hits 1 earned run 1 BB 4 K
6/16 Col 7 inn 7 hits 1 earned run 1 Bb 4 K
6/6 Cin 5 Inn 9 Hits 3 earned runs 2 BB 5 K
5/14 Ari 6 Inn 5 hits 0earned (3runs) 1bb 4 K
5/9 Col 7 inn 4 H 2 earned runs 6 bb 6K's
4/29 Was 7 inn 9 hits 1 earned runs 0 bb 3 K
4/24 Pitt 6 Inn 8 hits 2 earned runs 1bb 3 K
4/14 Cin 8 Inn 4hits 1 earned runs 3bb 6K
First half 5-3 ...7 earned runs in 34 innings for 1.85 era in his wins. In his losses 4 earned runs ( 7runs) in 19 innings..
So in conclusion he allowed more then 3 Runs in just 2 home starts over the entire season, he allowed 3 runs exactly on 2 ocassions. The other 14 home starst he allowed 2 runs or less. he went 6 innings three times and 5 times once. Otherwise he went at least 7 innings. His last reg season start versus SD he was basically asked to win or lose the game. The pen was in shambles and the Cards deperate for a WIN. So basically he was hung out to dry IMO.
In 2 World Series games thus far we have seen the tigers score 4 times and twice on solo HR's by Monroe.
For the season Carpenter recieved 4.33 runs and allowed 2.44.
He went 9-4 (STL 13-5) with a 1.85 ERA. With 12 of 18 going under. With a WHIP slightily below 1.00.
Robertson pitched wll on the road and Inter league play. He was 7-6 (DET 7-10) on the road. He received 4.29 runs and allowed 3.88. Away 11 of 17 went away and his numbers are just as solid if NOT better with regards to nite splits.
In the 2nd Half of the season I documented STL troubles with LHP but they did go 8-5 at home(plus 1-1 in the playoffs) in the 2nd H as compared to 0-9 away. In 2006 Carpenter faced a LHP at home on 5 occassions with 4 Unders receiving 3,2,3,0 and 7 runs of support.
With regards to Roberston never facing STL or even many of its hitters you would think he has a nice edge.
Based on the fact that STL typically performs somewhat better at home versus LHP , based on the fact the Tigers are not hitting well and going against probably the toughest SP in a home park and are undervalued @ -143 I think STL is the play. I love the fact we could see Wilson and taguchi in the lineup been calling for that since mid-mets series. With regards to the line even when DET was rolling back in June Carpenter was favored -120 against Verlander. Really no reason other then public hype that surrounded DET before the series that this game is nOT at least -165 IMO.
Play: Cards -143 (7x now 6x) & Under 3.5 +105 (2.5x) Tigers team
Looking at others....game total @ 8 runs was probably a play but not 7.5 . Also got a little nervous with the fact that this line wnet straight down yesterday and slowly creeped up today. What I take from that is usually the sharp bettors hit DET early for whatever reason and Joe Pub is playing STL all day today.....just something to be aware of. If I didnt reduce it a bit I would kick myself if I missed something , althouh I dont feel I have.
I realize I didnt talk much about Robertson but he deserves mention. He tends to be either very good or very bad...think at least 6 times he allowed at least 6 runs and 5 runs another 2 times. For the most part he had just 3 bad starts on the road ..@ NY in the divisional series , and 5 runs on two ocassions but still managed 6 and 7 innings.
He did extremely well against 4 NL Central teams (Hou , ChiC , Cincy, and Milw). In those 4 stafrts just 4 earned in 28 innings but all 4 in 13 2/3 away (Milw and Chic). All 4 went UNDER though. hile he was unscored upon in Oakland I didnt like the wayhe pitched. He battled but 9 baserunners in 5 innings basically left him with 3 consecutive poor outings...
He deserves credit but I fell he is getting 2 much at this time.
Sunday, October 22, 2006
Monday Nite Football
Under 45 -110 NYG and Dallas(6x) & Under 24 -110 Dallas team (1x)
A few things stuck out to me here. First I was suprised to see this total set so high. The next is that Covers.com had to have an article saying how inflated this total was...then I read deeper and claims its only 1 point to high. Which I was happy to see cause IMO its probably more like 3 points to high. You can see from week to week NYG totals are all over the place. They overreacted to the Seattle debacle and placed a 46 total on a Skins- NYG matchup. Last week in ATL which in some ways is very close to a Dallas team they set it at only 41. Dallas highest total was 43.5 before this game. So you gets get the point I think we are little heavy here...
Lets talk series history. The past 5 meetings in dallas have not seen more then 38 combined points and the home team DALLAS has never bested 20 points in any of those games.
Quick look:
Dallas wins 19-16 in OT last year
NYG wins 26-10
Dallas wins 19-3
NYG wins 21-17
Dallas wins 20-13
last year NYG won 17-10 @ the Meadowlands and lost 19-16 in OT down in Dallas.
In the 1st meeting in Dallas Eli went 14 of 30 for 215 yards and Tike ran 14 times for 64 yards
most of which came late in the game when NYG scrambled to send it to overtime after Jose Cortez had trouble icing the game. The teams combined to go 1-8 from the red zone , lose 6 fumbles and throw 2 picks!! NYG netted 270 yards in the game 217 came in the 4th quarter which I believe largely is a result of DALLAS not icing the game.
The second meeting in NYG saw only 480 yards of total offense by the teams combined and a defensive score. At home ELi was 12 of 31 for 151 yards with 2 picks. Tiki was solid with 30 carries and 115 yards.
So while I see another tough NFC East battle here I am also putting faith that the NYG defense we have seen the past 2 weeks is the one that will show up. Really the NYG offense hasnt done that much verus Washington and Atlanta sort of returning to Coughlin style football. Down 14-3 in ATL they used the running game to move the chains and converted 3 short TDS from inside the 5 yard line. After watching the pitt game this week we clearly see the ATL defense is hving issues. Eli seemed off most of the day in ATL and finished 17-30 with 180 yards (2tds and 2 ints). Clearly the duo of Barber and Jacobs got it done with 37 carries for 237 yards. That will be tough to duplicate since ATL has had troubles versus the run and had a banged up defensive front. Dallas did a solid job against Tike last year and allows just 2.9 YPC this season. If the Giants continue to get after the QB then obviously the slow footed and indecisive Drew Bledsoe will have trouble making plays.
NYG have played @ ATL , @ Phi , and @ Seattle so they are road tested . Interestingly though the totals were set 41,42,42 and went over twice with a PUSH. Now IMO those offenses are equal to or better then Dallas. So I am expecting a good ole smash mouth MNF, NFC East battle.
Prop: Under 251.5 -109 passing yards for ELI(1x)
GL
Under 45 -110 NYG and Dallas(6x) & Under 24 -110 Dallas team (1x)
A few things stuck out to me here. First I was suprised to see this total set so high. The next is that Covers.com had to have an article saying how inflated this total was...then I read deeper and claims its only 1 point to high. Which I was happy to see cause IMO its probably more like 3 points to high. You can see from week to week NYG totals are all over the place. They overreacted to the Seattle debacle and placed a 46 total on a Skins- NYG matchup. Last week in ATL which in some ways is very close to a Dallas team they set it at only 41. Dallas highest total was 43.5 before this game. So you gets get the point I think we are little heavy here...
Lets talk series history. The past 5 meetings in dallas have not seen more then 38 combined points and the home team DALLAS has never bested 20 points in any of those games.
Quick look:
Dallas wins 19-16 in OT last year
NYG wins 26-10
Dallas wins 19-3
NYG wins 21-17
Dallas wins 20-13
last year NYG won 17-10 @ the Meadowlands and lost 19-16 in OT down in Dallas.
In the 1st meeting in Dallas Eli went 14 of 30 for 215 yards and Tike ran 14 times for 64 yards
most of which came late in the game when NYG scrambled to send it to overtime after Jose Cortez had trouble icing the game. The teams combined to go 1-8 from the red zone , lose 6 fumbles and throw 2 picks!! NYG netted 270 yards in the game 217 came in the 4th quarter which I believe largely is a result of DALLAS not icing the game.
The second meeting in NYG saw only 480 yards of total offense by the teams combined and a defensive score. At home ELi was 12 of 31 for 151 yards with 2 picks. Tiki was solid with 30 carries and 115 yards.
So while I see another tough NFC East battle here I am also putting faith that the NYG defense we have seen the past 2 weeks is the one that will show up. Really the NYG offense hasnt done that much verus Washington and Atlanta sort of returning to Coughlin style football. Down 14-3 in ATL they used the running game to move the chains and converted 3 short TDS from inside the 5 yard line. After watching the pitt game this week we clearly see the ATL defense is hving issues. Eli seemed off most of the day in ATL and finished 17-30 with 180 yards (2tds and 2 ints). Clearly the duo of Barber and Jacobs got it done with 37 carries for 237 yards. That will be tough to duplicate since ATL has had troubles versus the run and had a banged up defensive front. Dallas did a solid job against Tike last year and allows just 2.9 YPC this season. If the Giants continue to get after the QB then obviously the slow footed and indecisive Drew Bledsoe will have trouble making plays.
NYG have played @ ATL , @ Phi , and @ Seattle so they are road tested . Interestingly though the totals were set 41,42,42 and went over twice with a PUSH. Now IMO those offenses are equal to or better then Dallas. So I am expecting a good ole smash mouth MNF, NFC East battle.
Prop: Under 251.5 -109 passing yards for ELI(1x)
GL
Football week of 10/23 -10/29 Early thoughts
After further review Week 8 in the NFL
Play: Arizona +4.5 -110 (5x)
Curious as to the staus of Adrian Wilson(now probable) and Karlos Dansby(out) but James Darling should return . I do believe that Greg Jennings is OUT while GB already misses Ferguson and Robinson. A couple of undrafted rookies will get the nods at the #2 and #3 spots. That seems troublesome with Favre throwing some of the toughest passes to catch. To there credit the youngsters made a couple of play @ Miami last week. Not crazy about a warm weather team playing in GB but low 40's arent that bad. Charles Woodson showed up for the first time this season in GB but otherwise the pass defense has been horrid. Edge hasnt found any running room and GB is fairly solid against the run . Zona hasnt shown much away losing @ Seattle , @ Atl(though Warner KILLED them in the 1st two away) and now @ Oakland....lets be honest though Oak was a tough spot after the MNF collapse with Leinart making his 1st road start(bad choice by me hopping on Zona). Basically a GB team that has been DOGS to everyone is now favored....hmmmm.....Dare I say overreaction!! Game probably should be a PK... Remember they were home dogs to NO in week 2 AND Favre has made a mistake or two late in games already...
Looking @ buying Houston to +3.5(already went Under 42 -110 3x)
Lets face it Tenn has been +10 , +17 and +12.5 past 3 weeks now they are favored?? Favorite is 0-5 ATS in the series. Houston just hosted JAX and cruised to a win which generally is a spot I dont like to follow up. With HOUSTON for a HALF they played great football @ Dallas till the wheels came off. Thats gonna happen with them cause they just have inferior talent and depth. Despite not winning on the ROAD in a long , long time how are these teams equal? Would Houston been +12.5 @ Wash 2 weeks ago? Very unlikely since they were +13 @ Dallas. Tenny is capable of making plays BUT still very inconsistent. The Titans have put forward top effort though I must say. Still they dont force teams into mistakes and if you allow Carr time he is a solid QB. Lets not get to excited about about a Tenny team that scored less then 16 points in each of there first 5 games. They played great as BIG DOGS @ Indy and @ Wash difference is now at home they are basically expected to win not just show up....
Playing: Broncos -2.5 -110 (7x)
I feel over the years I have noticed that Indy doesnt like physical teams and we all know about this Denver defense. Indy CANNOT stop the RUN and we know that is a huge concern. Basically cause it allows DENVER to control the game and keep the ball away from Peyton. Also with a so-so running game in Indy the Broncos can focus more on the passing game. Remember that DEN went to NE and totally shut the PATS offense down! We keep hearing how bad Plummer is but he really hasnt played a soft defense yet....the rams started the season playing solid DE and Oakland is actually solid on defense this year. Plummer has shown some progress over the weeks and the key is he only needs to help move the chains. Look at how Indy at home struggled verus Jax and remember they most contend with the elements of playing in NOV. Now remember that Indy just lost Doss as well. You cant be impressed with the WASH game cause if you paid attention they lost Carlos Rogers and Springs was still less then 100%. The secondary struggled before losing Rogers so it was gigantic hit that showed...they also played without a DT and LB...Skins were banged up !! Both Colts games away came down to the wire. NYG didnt have the team in sync in week 1 and the Jets gave them a scare! Just dont belive the HYPE surrounding the DEN offense..
Plays I put in w/o research...
Under 42 -110 Houston & Tenny (3x)
Under 41 -105 TB & NYG (3x)
Rams +10 -116 (6x) might buy some back cause who doesnt like STL? Gonna take 3x off this play since it was made thinking no Merriman.
Over 42 -122 Rams (8x) played thinking Merriman would be out
Vikings +3 -125 (5x) &.
Under 38.5 -105 Oakland (3x)
Seattle +6 +100 (5x) was leaning this way and now Huard gets hurt in pratice. Should have played more but it got pulled rather quickly
Eagles -6.5 -110 (3x)
Some TB @ NYG thoughts:
People are all over TB here. With good reason they look like a new team past few weeks. I think if you look at the fact this team was +7 @ NO and + 6 at home to Philly traveling to the Meadowlands at just +9 seems a bit low. Does to me . Now factor in that Gradkowski is having trouble withhis deep ball and you look at his last 2 games and see 4.18 and 4.00 yds per pass attempt. His game in NOwas actually only 5.77 if you take out the 52 yder to Galloway.
factor in both teams are banged up but NY has the depth to overcome it unless there CB situation worsens . Wyms , rice , Quarles and bolden all listed as questionable for TB. Ny off two big road wins and a MNFgame face a defense that hasnt stopped the RUN at all on teh road see ATL stats and Deuce 15c 123 yards. There passing defense hasnt been so solid either. I expect a low scoring game around 23-13. When it starts dropping below -9 I'll take notice...
SF @ Chi
I am torn on this game. Last year SF had no offense and covered( Trust me I know about the WIND that day) . This year Smith looks decent and played vs Chi in the preseason with good results and the Bears dont have Mike Brown. Which I think will show up more in there pass defense then the run defense. I think with a healthy OL Smith might actually break 10 points and see 13 or 14. Both teams needed a week off after there last game. I thought -17 was fair but I think people could be fading Chi cause ofMNF.....
Team totals
Under 22 -104 Tenny (1x)
Under 18.5 Jax -110(2.5x)
Over 19 .5-115 ATL (1x)
Under 13 SF -113 (2x) Mike Brown out though he missed after week 13 last year
Over 18 Rams -112 (2x)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAAF
Vatech +4 or better
Will I agree that Clemson is rising and VaTech sliding before our eyes this spread seems ridiculous. They have common opponents in UNC and GaTech. Now while GT exposed VaTech in Blacksburg they were still 8.5 pt dogs while the Hokies were missing 2 very key players. This week GT was heavily backed and was only +7 @ Clemson and kept it close(trailed 17-7) to there defense finally tired after repeated 2 minute possession by the offense. Now Chauncey Stuckey returns here but he probably wont be himself IMO. The running game was huge for Clemson.
Early on Clemson traveled to BC as -1pt chalk and lost a game they should have won in OT and VT just lost there last week as 2.5 pt chalk. They both played UNC and Tech beat them in NC 35-10 as 13 pt favs. While Clemson smoked them 52-7 as 15pt favs.......so really what these lines are saying in the eyes of oddsmakers VaTech is the stronger team on a neutral field ( somewhere around 2 points ...plus HFA and we probably would see -5.5 IF VatTech was playing up to there capabilities)
They arent though and the passing game is troublesome. Both teams possess strong defenses. I think we can agree that Clemson has struggled on the road abit. They blew the game to BC , they were tied late in the 4thQ versus FSU who I dont think is very good and struggled to win @ Wake 27-17 and need a 24 pt 4th Q comeback to do that. I think VaTech at home is just a different animal and I heavily backed them versus SoMiss recently. I expect a defensive battle here and will look to play the under if this total sneaks higher. Proctor hasnt looked very sharp without Stuckey and after weeks of not praticing you wonder how effective the duo will be.
Play: VaTech +4.5 -102(5x), ML +176 (1x) ,VaTech +6 -115(2x) @ BoDog, under 43 -105 (2x) , Under 23.5 Clemson team +114(1x)
Result: Hokies Win 24-7!!! and I hit everything...+11.90
Friday:
Over 54 -110 (3x) UTEP @ Tulsa
UTEP +14.5 -107 (1x) & +15 -110(2x) after some rethinking
Look at the past 3 meetings. Then see how poorly UTEP's defense has played especially in road games. There doesnt seem to be any reason why Tulsa is not in the 30's probably 35++. While the Tulsa defense has played fairly well UTEPs offense should be able to make plays in the passing game with Palmer. For that reason I think UTEP breaks the 20 point barrier in a shootout...
Saturday..
This week it appears Drew Tate is OUT and I was already close to playing Northern Illinois...so on this news I now am...
Oklahoma @ Missouri
Troubled by the loss of DE Smith I dont see much to get excited about with Oklahoma. Just who have they beat? Colorado , Iowa State and Mid Tenn State recently at home. They were outplayed by UT in the Red River shootout. There claim to fame is the Oregon game and we all know AP isnt around. Missouri was impressive in winning @ TexTech then almost winning @ A&M. Chase Daniels has surpassed expectations and where is the blemish on Missouri?? Both played Colorado and cruised to wins...why shouldnt Missouri be -3 here? Like the Under but waiting after 47 was missed. Paul Thompson is going to have do better then a 100 yards passing here.
Play: Missouri ML -115 (3x)
INJURY GAME: play- Northern Illinois +17 +102 (5x)
Miami Ohio vs Ball State
Its clear that Ball State cannot stop opposing QB's and mike Kokal has improved past few weeks. The home squad also has the better defense. The Ball State QB's have lofty passing numbers but can they do it vs Miami?? They kept Hrovath to under 200 yards and both home games were narrow losses. Just to tight for me to call....
Over 55-105 BYU & Air Force (5x)
BYU has rolled AF the past 2 years putting up a 103 points in the process while Beck and Brown have enjoyed tremendous sucess. AF has played better defensively this year but I dont see how BYU who scored seemingly at will @ TCU will be held to under 35 points. AF should certainly score in the 20's versus an average defense.
Army +6 -104 (3x) and Over 50-05 (3x)
Basically no one can figure out Army but the fact Tulane is a favorite is fadeworthy in itself. Army looks good a few weeks then falls apart. Really both defenses leave alot to be desired. Tulane has allowed at least 24 points in every game but they can score.
Thinking Under 41 -113 Kent State and Ohio.
Kent State hasnt allowed more then 17 point ssince the opener but the offense has improved. Ohio U has played decent defense in road games @ Illinois , @ Northern Illinois,@ RU @ Missouri...
Colorado @ Kansas
Tough game. Kansas has lost 4 straight games they could have won including the last 3 the lead at half....hard to back them against a decent defense.
No interest in Kentucky @ Miss State Or FIU @ Bama...
Under 42 -112 Wake & UNC (3x)
Two struggling offenses versus solid defenses. Well UNC defense can be solid at times but there offense managed only 20 points once this year versus a 1A opponent...and that was garbage time. Wake struggled to move the ball most of the season needing good field positon to score. They scored 25 @ NCST but had three 50 yd ++ FGs and a saftey...
Iowa State +5.5 -110(3x)
As bad as the cyclones look how is this line possible? Kansas State hasnt actually done much on offense to get excited about laying points. Lets see if they can exploit the Iowa State defense
Marshall should run Bradshaw right over Memphis but think -7 might be abit much...
Late starts
UCLA -114(3x)
Lets see Wash State traveling after a home upset.....recipe for disaster. The UCLA offense seems to be okay w/o Olsen and there defense has allowed just 33 points in 4 games at home. Wash State allowing 370 yards per last 3.
Thing ASU +1.....can Bonnell cut down the INT's?? Playing ASU ML jsut waiting......
Texas Tech +12 -110 (3x)
Texas coming off the hard fought win @ NEB will have another tough venue on there hand. I think Vince Young was teh main reason why TT had no chance verus UT. With him now gone I think we have competitive games again. The UT secondary still struggling.....
Despite the impressive ARK run it would be UL Monroe +36 or pass.
Baylor +5 -110 (5x)
its one weakness on defense versus another strength for both sides here. However Baylor has played good outside of the UT and Army games. TAMU has been in 5 of 6 games decided by 1 possession recently. They were +3 @ Ok State an luckily won and -1 @ KU and won late in the game. baylor just spotted KU a 20 pt lead and shut them down and won...think this number is way off...Oh and Baylorhas given TAMU hell the past 2 years they know they can win this game.
TCU -6 sounds like alot but 17-10 is win....just dont like Wyoming to score much here. They were +5 @ Cuse and lost by 6...
Thinking SC +5 w/o Coker to run the ball.
Under 71.5 -104 Hawaii (3x)
Thinking worst case we see 42-21 type game here. Hawaii exploded for 2 consecutive weeks away versus awful defenses. It didnt do much till the 4th Q at NMST. Idaho hasnt been able to consistently move the ball away and was shutout by Hawaii last year. Think its agame Hawaii has control but never gets up that big....
GL
Last minute thoughts....
- Somewhat concerned the Iowa line hasnt moved with Tate out but not buying any back at the moment. I really want to play the over 47. What scares me is no Tate and Wolfe's past2 games!
- happy to be on Buff with banged up Ryan and Gonzalez.
-Would like to take a shot with UNC here since I dont like the WF offense to be road chalk.
-Really like ND but hate road chalk and wanted to play the UND 48 but missed it now 47.
- think 37 is way to low for NCST/ UVA..over is calling
-Like FSU -3.5 but concerned that Fagg is out.
- Cuse and Natti how did I miss that 42 total?
-How in the hell has that dropped 5 points....Arrington OUT now as well , possibly?
- I am crazy but really like Illinois +21 or better...take out Cuse and RU and there defense has played well!! Thinking 27-10......
- Mich State and Indiana looks like we get the bst number on the total but big moves always unnerve me.
-I really wont be suprisd if Temple wins SU. However I am kicking myself for waiting on the total had 53.5 on my radar now 48.5!!!
- Probably a good spot to grab AF as 10 pt home dog after DD road chalk SU loss.
- Want to play Miami-Ohio but scared at -4 which makes -5 even tougher.
- Expecting a shootout down in Texas Tech or Lubbock.
- thought hard about Penn State but how can you lay with them after last week? its been a season long slump though. Happy that total came back down to 48 saw 49.5 and was oh shit!
- Minny looks like it might be w/o there TE and Ginn is banged up and could be limited. total looked attractive till these injuries...
- hoping SC creeps back up so I can fade Tenny
-thinking hard about Georgia @ +14.
- missed USC under 50.now 44.5
- passed on the OHIO U under now 40
- playing ASU ML at some point see -120.
- utah , Nevada , SJST , andMarshall look readyto roll.
-Now thinking hard about Miss State.
-thought about UCF but there dfense is?
-real like Toledo +5 and ML
- on Miami but over 37ish is attractive
-wanted under 40 Oklahoma now 45.5
- Colorado and Kansas seems like and under 42
-damn 55 Nebraska was over 51....
-hoping TCU gets cheaper so I can pounce.
- East carolina looks good+6
- not sure about Idaho and Hawaii
-maybe NT +10.5
-still thinking UL Monroe +36!
Team Totals
Under 39.5 BC -108 (1.5x)
Under 17 -110 Navy (1x)
Under 24.5-108 Wake (1.5x)
Under 35.5 -108 Bowl Green (2x)
Over 31 and Over 24 Mich State and Indiana -108 (1x each)
Over 16.5 -108 Temple (1.5x)
Over 27.5 -116 tulane (1x)
Under 13.5 Eastern Mich -108 (1x)
Over 15.5 -108 Miami U (2x)
Over 20.5 -108 ECU (1x)
After further review Week 8 in the NFL
Play: Arizona +4.5 -110 (5x)
Curious as to the staus of Adrian Wilson(now probable) and Karlos Dansby(out) but James Darling should return . I do believe that Greg Jennings is OUT while GB already misses Ferguson and Robinson. A couple of undrafted rookies will get the nods at the #2 and #3 spots. That seems troublesome with Favre throwing some of the toughest passes to catch. To there credit the youngsters made a couple of play @ Miami last week. Not crazy about a warm weather team playing in GB but low 40's arent that bad. Charles Woodson showed up for the first time this season in GB but otherwise the pass defense has been horrid. Edge hasnt found any running room and GB is fairly solid against the run . Zona hasnt shown much away losing @ Seattle , @ Atl(though Warner KILLED them in the 1st two away) and now @ Oakland....lets be honest though Oak was a tough spot after the MNF collapse with Leinart making his 1st road start(bad choice by me hopping on Zona). Basically a GB team that has been DOGS to everyone is now favored....hmmmm.....Dare I say overreaction!! Game probably should be a PK... Remember they were home dogs to NO in week 2 AND Favre has made a mistake or two late in games already...
Looking @ buying Houston to +3.5(already went Under 42 -110 3x)
Lets face it Tenn has been +10 , +17 and +12.5 past 3 weeks now they are favored?? Favorite is 0-5 ATS in the series. Houston just hosted JAX and cruised to a win which generally is a spot I dont like to follow up. With HOUSTON for a HALF they played great football @ Dallas till the wheels came off. Thats gonna happen with them cause they just have inferior talent and depth. Despite not winning on the ROAD in a long , long time how are these teams equal? Would Houston been +12.5 @ Wash 2 weeks ago? Very unlikely since they were +13 @ Dallas. Tenny is capable of making plays BUT still very inconsistent. The Titans have put forward top effort though I must say. Still they dont force teams into mistakes and if you allow Carr time he is a solid QB. Lets not get to excited about about a Tenny team that scored less then 16 points in each of there first 5 games. They played great as BIG DOGS @ Indy and @ Wash difference is now at home they are basically expected to win not just show up....
Playing: Broncos -2.5 -110 (7x)
I feel over the years I have noticed that Indy doesnt like physical teams and we all know about this Denver defense. Indy CANNOT stop the RUN and we know that is a huge concern. Basically cause it allows DENVER to control the game and keep the ball away from Peyton. Also with a so-so running game in Indy the Broncos can focus more on the passing game. Remember that DEN went to NE and totally shut the PATS offense down! We keep hearing how bad Plummer is but he really hasnt played a soft defense yet....the rams started the season playing solid DE and Oakland is actually solid on defense this year. Plummer has shown some progress over the weeks and the key is he only needs to help move the chains. Look at how Indy at home struggled verus Jax and remember they most contend with the elements of playing in NOV. Now remember that Indy just lost Doss as well. You cant be impressed with the WASH game cause if you paid attention they lost Carlos Rogers and Springs was still less then 100%. The secondary struggled before losing Rogers so it was gigantic hit that showed...they also played without a DT and LB...Skins were banged up !! Both Colts games away came down to the wire. NYG didnt have the team in sync in week 1 and the Jets gave them a scare! Just dont belive the HYPE surrounding the DEN offense..
Plays I put in w/o research...
Under 42 -110 Houston & Tenny (3x)
Under 41 -105 TB & NYG (3x)
Rams +10 -116 (6x) might buy some back cause who doesnt like STL? Gonna take 3x off this play since it was made thinking no Merriman.
Over 42 -122 Rams (8x) played thinking Merriman would be out
Vikings +3 -125 (5x) &.
Under 38.5 -105 Oakland (3x)
Seattle +6 +100 (5x) was leaning this way and now Huard gets hurt in pratice. Should have played more but it got pulled rather quickly
Eagles -6.5 -110 (3x)
Today's thoughts:
ATL@Cincy now see -3.5 -101 absolutely playing at this level or cheaper.
My first instinct was to go with ATL +4.5 then I started diving into this matchup. First thing is Cincy is struggling some but they have also played NE , @ TB and Car which would qualify as some of the better defenses in the league. Even with all the talent on ATL they are still proving to be a disappointment IMO. They have lost Abraham for awhile and regained Hartwell who I think will need time to get a groove. Also Rod Coleman missed last week and that is a huge loss if he again doesnt play. Look at the past 6 quarters of football for ATL, belive they have allowed 72 points!!
Lets talk about the line itself. Cincy just was -3 to Carolina and pushed so FAIR line IMO. If ATL played Carolina today on a neutral field would the line by -1?? Absolutely not IMO probably -3. Realize that ATL was just a home dog to Pitt and while they won its wasnt decisive IMO. Cincy traveled to Pitt catching 2 and won. However I would say Pitt beat themselves that day. Still the line of +2 implies Cincy is a better team when you take into account home field is worth 3 or 3.5 points in theory.
So now that this line is dropping we cn get 3.5 at many placs if I get -3 I would make a fairly sizeable play on Cincy here. The public is in love with Vick and his 4 TDS...
With regards to Balt @ NO I have changed my stance. Why?
After much thought I am not sure this game should see NO as a favorite. Really it should be a PK and my gametime I expect this to move to 2 or 2.5. Lets remember that the Ravens defense is still a tough matchup. NO has managed to win close games vs Philly and TB. Is TB any better then Balt??? Definetly not IMO especially on defense. To much talk about NO's going undefeated at home has made people forget the just won there last 2 games in the final minutes. McNair has shown the ability to make plays late in the game and that can never be discounted for the simple fact the Ravens defense will always kep them in the game. Remember a bad decision @ Denver before half sealed there fate. The Saints have allowed some huge chunks on the ground and with Fassel gone I would suspect we see alot of Jamal Lewis here, along with Musa Smith and Mike Anderson. Also losing Roman Smith at Safety was huge and the Saints defense hasnt looked sharp past 2 games. leaning towards the DOG if we get the move I suspect is coming.....Balt 17-16. remember Deuce was banged up and Bush hasnt done much in the running game with BALT coming it 3.3 per carry allowed. A young Gradkowski was 20 of 31 for 220 and @tds versus NO in his 1st career road start.
Another one I rethought and wished I played on Monday is Jax @ Philly.
It looks like alot of points to give Jags but they are banged up. If Garrard plays is this the right spot for him Or if Leftwich plays is the Blitz master Jimmie Johmson gonna set them loose versus a bad ankle QB. A defense that could be without Hayward , Peterson (both gone for the season), Wiley questionable but hasnt played in weeks and Stroud oubtful who was out last week. No wonder Houston scored 27. Philly should be aided by Stallwortsh return as well as the anger of 2 straight losses...bringing the games that got away number to 3 this year. Weather doesnt appear to be an issue but wind might be and its stilla FLA team in late OCT playing in the NE. No matter how you slice it or dice it Eagles should be good for at least 21 at home....scoring 14 @ Indy and 7 @ Houston now with QB issues doesnt make me believe it will be EZ for them to break 14 here.....Just remember the playoff game @ NE and think of a similiar type ENDING here. Still some-6.5 -110 out there...
Some TB @ NYG thoughts:
People are all over TB here. With good reason they look like a new team past few weeks. I think if you look at the fact this team was +7 @ NO and + 6 at home to Philly traveling to the Meadowlands at just +9 seems a bit low. Does to me . Now factor in that Gradkowski is having trouble withhis deep ball and you look at his last 2 games and see 4.18 and 4.00 yds per pass attempt. His game in NOwas actually only 5.77 if you take out the 52 yder to Galloway.
factor in both teams are banged up but NY has the depth to overcome it unless there CB situation worsens . Wyms , rice , Quarles and bolden all listed as questionable for TB. Ny off two big road wins and a MNFgame face a defense that hasnt stopped the RUN at all on teh road see ATL stats and Deuce 15c 123 yards. There passing defense hasnt been so solid either. I expect a low scoring game around 23-13. When it starts dropping below -9 I'll take notice...
SF @ Chi
I am torn on this game. Last year SF had no offense and covered( Trust me I know about the WIND that day) . This year Smith looks decent and played vs Chi in the preseason with good results and the Bears dont have Mike Brown. Which I think will show up more in there pass defense then the run defense. I think with a healthy OL Smith might actually break 10 points and see 13 or 14. Both teams needed a week off after there last game. I thought -17 was fair but I think people could be fading Chi cause ofMNF.....
Team totals
Under 22 -104 Tenny (1x)
Under 18.5 Jax -110(2.5x)
Over 19 .5-115 ATL (1x)
Under 13 SF -113 (2x) Mike Brown out though he missed after week 13 last year
Over 18 Rams -112 (2x)
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NCAAF
Vatech +4 or better
Will I agree that Clemson is rising and VaTech sliding before our eyes this spread seems ridiculous. They have common opponents in UNC and GaTech. Now while GT exposed VaTech in Blacksburg they were still 8.5 pt dogs while the Hokies were missing 2 very key players. This week GT was heavily backed and was only +7 @ Clemson and kept it close(trailed 17-7) to there defense finally tired after repeated 2 minute possession by the offense. Now Chauncey Stuckey returns here but he probably wont be himself IMO. The running game was huge for Clemson.
Early on Clemson traveled to BC as -1pt chalk and lost a game they should have won in OT and VT just lost there last week as 2.5 pt chalk. They both played UNC and Tech beat them in NC 35-10 as 13 pt favs. While Clemson smoked them 52-7 as 15pt favs.......so really what these lines are saying in the eyes of oddsmakers VaTech is the stronger team on a neutral field ( somewhere around 2 points ...plus HFA and we probably would see -5.5 IF VatTech was playing up to there capabilities)
They arent though and the passing game is troublesome. Both teams possess strong defenses. I think we can agree that Clemson has struggled on the road abit. They blew the game to BC , they were tied late in the 4thQ versus FSU who I dont think is very good and struggled to win @ Wake 27-17 and need a 24 pt 4th Q comeback to do that. I think VaTech at home is just a different animal and I heavily backed them versus SoMiss recently. I expect a defensive battle here and will look to play the under if this total sneaks higher. Proctor hasnt looked very sharp without Stuckey and after weeks of not praticing you wonder how effective the duo will be.
Play: VaTech +4.5 -102(5x), ML +176 (1x) ,VaTech +6 -115(2x) @ BoDog, under 43 -105 (2x) , Under 23.5 Clemson team +114(1x)
Result: Hokies Win 24-7!!! and I hit everything...+11.90
Friday:
Over 54 -110 (3x) UTEP @ Tulsa
UTEP +14.5 -107 (1x) & +15 -110(2x) after some rethinking
Look at the past 3 meetings. Then see how poorly UTEP's defense has played especially in road games. There doesnt seem to be any reason why Tulsa is not in the 30's probably 35++. While the Tulsa defense has played fairly well UTEPs offense should be able to make plays in the passing game with Palmer. For that reason I think UTEP breaks the 20 point barrier in a shootout...
Saturday..
This week it appears Drew Tate is OUT and I was already close to playing Northern Illinois...so on this news I now am...
Oklahoma @ Missouri
Troubled by the loss of DE Smith I dont see much to get excited about with Oklahoma. Just who have they beat? Colorado , Iowa State and Mid Tenn State recently at home. They were outplayed by UT in the Red River shootout. There claim to fame is the Oregon game and we all know AP isnt around. Missouri was impressive in winning @ TexTech then almost winning @ A&M. Chase Daniels has surpassed expectations and where is the blemish on Missouri?? Both played Colorado and cruised to wins...why shouldnt Missouri be -3 here? Like the Under but waiting after 47 was missed. Paul Thompson is going to have do better then a 100 yards passing here.
Play: Missouri ML -115 (3x)
INJURY GAME: play- Northern Illinois +17 +102 (5x)
We know Iowa will be w/o QB Drew Tate . This is his 2nd missed start and the offense looked out of sync he 1st time @ Syracuse. Shonne Greene is also OUT for IOWA @ RB. Basically Iowa has been unimpressive outside of the whopping they put on Purdue. I really cant say UNI has been impresive at all but Horvath and Wolfe are veterans. Want to see how this line reacts. One would think it would have immediately been adjusted with the suprise announcement...so curious to say the least.
Virginia ML +105 (3x)A couple weeks back I figured that when Maryland traveled to UVA the game should have been a PK or maybe -1.5. Well Maryland came back and won by 2. Last week Maryland jumped out to a 20-0 lead and NCST didnt play well on offense( number basically said both teams were equal). We have to remember Evans is a young , inexperienced QB getting his 1st road tests. UVA defense continues to fly under the radar and there weak link IMO is avoiding big pass plays. Otherwise its hard to grind yards out versus them. Wolfpack also didnt play well @ So Miss. I'll continue to ride the Sewell train here....
Over 55 -105 Indiana & Mich State (3x) 1st H over 27.5 -105 (1x)
High number but two defenses who havent really stopped anyone . Stanton should have a field day verus this defense and I would definetly expect a 35 pt day here. Indiana showed the ability to move the ball till they ran into Ohio State. Last year the total was 61.5 and Indiana has a better chance of putting points on the board at home IMO.
Notre Dame @ Navy
Really this is about the loss of the NAVY QB. The offense looked clueless versus RU once Brian Hampton was lost. Has the time off and pratice reps helped Enhada? Unless you can see the pratices you just dont know. I do think the ND defense has played fairly well recently as has Navys for the most part. So I am leaning heavy towards the UNDER here as its a neutral field(somewhat) I believe..waiting for 49 or better ...also thinking if ND drops they could be worth a play. After all there ATS losses could they be getting cheap? Well if the offense plays like it did 2 weeks ago for Navy that could be the case.
Northwestern @ Michigan
The Wildcat defense hasnt looked very good week after week watching teams top 30 points. That could be partially due to the fact the offense doesnt have many sustained drives and has alot of turnovers. With the SOPH at QB the Wildcats actually had an offense though it disappeared in crunch time. Was that a momentum shift , inexperience , lack of pratice reps....who knows. The Wolverine defense is stout...point will be tough but the Wildcats have managed to hang around for a half and then fade @ Penn State and @ Wisky. People who know Michigan alot better then I believe Carr will keep the offense very vanilla till Ohio State...which seems logical to me. Michigans offense hasnt been explosive lately even before manningham was lost...if we can keep Mich away from teh 38 ++ barrier this should be a cover....big IF though...
Scary that the Wildcats could still be thinking about the collapse but in away they have to be happy they actually ahd an offense and better days could be ahead.
1st half +19.5 -101 (1x) game +35 -120 (2x)
No opinion on Auburn @ Miss or Wisky versus Illini other then the obvious. Would have liked to play the Cincy under but debated and missed 42 now 37.5.
Under 48 -110 Purdue & Penn State (2x)
Neither offense has it together and Penn State shutdown Ohio State IMO. They allowed Minny to come back by letting them hang around. The Boilmakers played decent defense vs Wisky who is a much better offense then Penn State now. Still would rather play the Nittany Lions if I had to chose.
Vandy @ Duke bought +10 -120 (2x)
Duke is showing some improvement on defense lately when they arent giving short fields. Hard to back Duke but Vandy hasnt actually played well on offense especially in road games. Leaning hard to the points...fading a young QB as road chalk
Buffalo +36 -110 (3x)
While the past few weeks BC has impressed me especially on defense. This is clearly a good spot to rest up abit with Ryan ailing. There offense hasnt exactly clicked past few weeks and I am note sure they can score 42 points here. Before this week @ Ohio U these guys had some good showings at top tier schools. Its kind of odd that BC biggest spread was -11 this season and they just played Maine with lackluster results. Ryan and Gonzo banged up.
Temple +20 -105 (5x)& ML +840(1x)
Call me crazy but Temple offensively seems to be improving. At least to the point where in garbage time they will score. BG has put up 70 the past 2 years versus Temple but Omar Jacobs is gone and the team has struggled all year. Recently just struggling to beat EMU at home. Temple gave a decent effort versus Kent State and the over 53 is always attractive...
The 2 Pm starts:Miami Ohio vs Ball State
Its clear that Ball State cannot stop opposing QB's and mike Kokal has improved past few weeks. The home squad also has the better defense. The Ball State QB's have lofty passing numbers but can they do it vs Miami?? They kept Hrovath to under 200 yards and both home games were narrow losses. Just to tight for me to call....
Over 55-105 BYU & Air Force (5x)
BYU has rolled AF the past 2 years putting up a 103 points in the process while Beck and Brown have enjoyed tremendous sucess. AF has played better defensively this year but I dont see how BYU who scored seemingly at will @ TCU will be held to under 35 points. AF should certainly score in the 20's versus an average defense.
Army +6 -104 (3x) and Over 50-05 (3x)
Basically no one can figure out Army but the fact Tulane is a favorite is fadeworthy in itself. Army looks good a few weeks then falls apart. Really both defenses leave alot to be desired. Tulane has allowed at least 24 points in every game but they can score.
Thinking Under 41 -113 Kent State and Ohio.
Kent State hasnt allowed more then 17 point ssince the opener but the offense has improved. Ohio U has played decent defense in road games @ Illinois , @ Northern Illinois,@ RU @ Missouri...
Colorado @ Kansas
Tough game. Kansas has lost 4 straight games they could have won including the last 3 the lead at half....hard to back them against a decent defense.
No interest in Kentucky @ Miss State Or FIU @ Bama...
Under 42 -112 Wake & UNC (3x)
Two struggling offenses versus solid defenses. Well UNC defense can be solid at times but there offense managed only 20 points once this year versus a 1A opponent...and that was garbage time. Wake struggled to move the ball most of the season needing good field positon to score. They scored 25 @ NCST but had three 50 yd ++ FGs and a saftey...
USC @ Oregon State
If I caught this early would have played the under since it opened at 50 but 45 is tough.
Miami +6 -110 (3x)
Really GT never plays well as a fav and struggled with UVA and Maryland at home. Miami will still play tough defense despite the late collapse @ Duke.
If I could figure out the Minnesota offense and if they could score 10-14 points here I would probably play the overespecially @ 48 .
Over 51 -105 Nebraska & Ok State (5x)
Over 57 -105 UCF and Houston (4x)
Well UCF has not been able to stop any QB's and enter Kolb. With the switch to Israel and Kenny Smith running the ball UCF still has an offense that can make noise...38-21?
Iowa State +5.5 -110(3x)
As bad as the cyclones look how is this line possible? Kansas State hasnt actually done much on offense to get excited about laying points. Lets see if they can exploit the Iowa State defense
Marshall should run Bradshaw right over Memphis but think -7 might be abit much...
Late starts
UCLA -114(3x)
Lets see Wash State traveling after a home upset.....recipe for disaster. The UCLA offense seems to be okay w/o Olsen and there defense has allowed just 33 points in 4 games at home. Wash State allowing 370 yards per last 3.
Thing ASU +1.....can Bonnell cut down the INT's?? Playing ASU ML jsut waiting......
Texas Tech +12 -110 (3x)
Texas coming off the hard fought win @ NEB will have another tough venue on there hand. I think Vince Young was teh main reason why TT had no chance verus UT. With him now gone I think we have competitive games again. The UT secondary still struggling.....
Despite the impressive ARK run it would be UL Monroe +36 or pass.
Baylor +5 -110 (5x)
its one weakness on defense versus another strength for both sides here. However Baylor has played good outside of the UT and Army games. TAMU has been in 5 of 6 games decided by 1 possession recently. They were +3 @ Ok State an luckily won and -1 @ KU and won late in the game. baylor just spotted KU a 20 pt lead and shut them down and won...think this number is way off...Oh and Baylorhas given TAMU hell the past 2 years they know they can win this game.
TCU -6 sounds like alot but 17-10 is win....just dont like Wyoming to score much here. They were +5 @ Cuse and lost by 6...
Thinking SC +5 w/o Coker to run the ball.
Under 71.5 -104 Hawaii (3x)
Thinking worst case we see 42-21 type game here. Hawaii exploded for 2 consecutive weeks away versus awful defenses. It didnt do much till the 4th Q at NMST. Idaho hasnt been able to consistently move the ball away and was shutout by Hawaii last year. Think its agame Hawaii has control but never gets up that big....
GL
Last minute thoughts....
- Somewhat concerned the Iowa line hasnt moved with Tate out but not buying any back at the moment. I really want to play the over 47. What scares me is no Tate and Wolfe's past2 games!
- happy to be on Buff with banged up Ryan and Gonzalez.
-Would like to take a shot with UNC here since I dont like the WF offense to be road chalk.
-Really like ND but hate road chalk and wanted to play the UND 48 but missed it now 47.
- think 37 is way to low for NCST/ UVA..over is calling
-Like FSU -3.5 but concerned that Fagg is out.
- Cuse and Natti how did I miss that 42 total?
-How in the hell has that dropped 5 points....Arrington OUT now as well , possibly?
- I am crazy but really like Illinois +21 or better...take out Cuse and RU and there defense has played well!! Thinking 27-10......
- Mich State and Indiana looks like we get the bst number on the total but big moves always unnerve me.
-I really wont be suprisd if Temple wins SU. However I am kicking myself for waiting on the total had 53.5 on my radar now 48.5!!!
- Probably a good spot to grab AF as 10 pt home dog after DD road chalk SU loss.
- Want to play Miami-Ohio but scared at -4 which makes -5 even tougher.
- Expecting a shootout down in Texas Tech or Lubbock.
- thought hard about Penn State but how can you lay with them after last week? its been a season long slump though. Happy that total came back down to 48 saw 49.5 and was oh shit!
- Minny looks like it might be w/o there TE and Ginn is banged up and could be limited. total looked attractive till these injuries...
- hoping SC creeps back up so I can fade Tenny
-thinking hard about Georgia @ +14.
- missed USC under 50.now 44.5
- passed on the OHIO U under now 40
- playing ASU ML at some point see -120.
- utah , Nevada , SJST , andMarshall look readyto roll.
-Now thinking hard about Miss State.
-thought about UCF but there dfense is?
-real like Toledo +5 and ML
- on Miami but over 37ish is attractive
-wanted under 40 Oklahoma now 45.5
- Colorado and Kansas seems like and under 42
-damn 55 Nebraska was over 51....
-hoping TCU gets cheaper so I can pounce.
- East carolina looks good+6
- not sure about Idaho and Hawaii
-maybe NT +10.5
-still thinking UL Monroe +36!
Team Totals
Under 39.5 BC -108 (1.5x)
Under 17 -110 Navy (1x)
Under 24.5-108 Wake (1.5x)
Under 35.5 -108 Bowl Green (2x)
Over 31 and Over 24 Mich State and Indiana -108 (1x each)
Over 16.5 -108 Temple (1.5x)
Over 27.5 -116 tulane (1x)
Under 13.5 Eastern Mich -108 (1x)
Over 15.5 -108 Miami U (2x)
Over 20.5 -108 ECU (1x)
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