Tuesday Nite World Series Thoughts Game #3


Tonite we have Nate Robertson facing Chris Carpenter


Umpire Trends for Wally Bell

-Home team is 55-23 L78
-Tigers have lost 12 of past 16 at nite with Bell behind the dish
-Home team is 19-7 L26 interleague games with Bell
-Home team is 16-5 L21 at nite

Both teams are 52 -33 on the road for DET and STL at home.

Robertson has not pitched since 10/10 and its hard to say how he will respond. I tend to believe that at this point in the season these guys dont mind the extra rest. You cant really say what type of command they will have but generally most of the guys have been the same SP's in the playoffs on long rest they were all season IMO.

Lets back track abit:

Carpenter at home in 2006:
10/8 SD 7 Innings 7 Hits 2 earned runs 3Bb 5 K's.
9/26 SD 7 Innings 12 Hits 6 earned runs 2BB 6 K's
9/16 SF 7 Innings 5 hits 1 earned run 2Bb 9K's.
9/11 Hou 9 Inn 6 hits 0 earned runs 2 BB 6K's.
9/1 Pitt 9 Inn 3Hits 1earned run 0BB 8Ks.

8/26 Chi 8 Inn 2 hits 1 earned runs 1BB 5 K's.
8/15 Cin 9 Inn 4 hits 0 earned runs 0 Bb 6 K's.
8/4 Milw 6 inn 7 Hits 4 earned runs 0Bb 3 K's.

7/19 Atl 7 inn 5 hits 2 earned runs 0Bb 6 K's.
7/14 LAD 9 Inn 2Hits 0 earned runs 0 Bb 7 K's

He won all the 2nd H starts EXCEPT the two were he actually allowed some runs in. That 8-2 in 10 starts. He allowed a total of 7 RUNs in 8 starts(65 innings) that were wins!!! His ERA was 0.97!!! He allowed 10 runs in the 2 losses(13 innings).

First half:
6/28 Cle 7 Inn 5 Hits 1 earned run 1 BB 4 K
6/16 Col 7 inn 7 hits 1 earned run 1 Bb 4 K
6/6 Cin 5 Inn 9 Hits 3 earned runs 2 BB 5 K

5/14 Ari 6 Inn 5 hits 0earned (3runs) 1bb 4 K
5/9 Col 7 inn 4 H 2 earned runs 6 bb 6K's

4/29 Was 7 inn 9 hits 1 earned runs 0 bb 3 K
4/24 Pitt 6 Inn 8 hits 2 earned runs 1bb 3 K
4/14 Cin 8 Inn 4hits 1 earned runs 3bb 6K

First half 5-3 ...7 earned runs in 34 innings for 1.85 era in his wins. In his losses 4 earned runs ( 7runs) in 19 innings..

So in conclusion he allowed more then 3 Runs in just 2 home starts over the entire season, he allowed 3 runs exactly on 2 ocassions. The other 14 home starst he allowed 2 runs or less. he went 6 innings three times and 5 times once. Otherwise he went at least 7 innings. His last reg season start versus SD he was basically asked to win or lose the game. The pen was in shambles and the Cards deperate for a WIN. So basically he was hung out to dry IMO.

In 2 World Series games thus far we have seen the tigers score 4 times and twice on solo HR's by Monroe.

For the season Carpenter recieved 4.33 runs and allowed 2.44.
He went 9-4 (STL 13-5) with a 1.85 ERA. With 12 of 18 going under. With a WHIP slightily below 1.00.

Robertson pitched wll on the road and Inter league play. He was 7-6 (DET 7-10) on the road. He received 4.29 runs and allowed 3.88. Away 11 of 17 went away and his numbers are just as solid if NOT better with regards to nite splits.

In the 2nd Half of the season I documented STL troubles with LHP but they did go 8-5 at home(plus 1-1 in the playoffs) in the 2nd H as compared to 0-9 away. In 2006 Carpenter faced a LHP at home on 5 occassions with 4 Unders receiving 3,2,3,0 and 7 runs of support.


With regards to Roberston never facing STL or even many of its hitters you would think he has a nice edge.

Based on the fact that STL typically performs somewhat better at home versus LHP , based on the fact the Tigers are not hitting well and going against probably the toughest SP in a home park and are undervalued @ -143 I think STL is the play. I love the fact we could see Wilson and taguchi in the lineup been calling for that since mid-mets series. With regards to the line even when DET was rolling back in June Carpenter was favored -120 against Verlander. Really no reason other then public hype that surrounded DET before the series that this game is nOT at least -165 IMO.

Play: Cards -143 (7x now 6x) & Under 3.5 +105 (2.5x) Tigers team

Looking at others....game total @ 8 runs was probably a play but not 7.5 . Also got a little nervous with the fact that this line wnet straight down yesterday and slowly creeped up today. What I take from that is usually the sharp bettors hit DET early for whatever reason and Joe Pub is playing STL all day today.....just something to be aware of. If I didnt reduce it a bit I would kick myself if I missed something , althouh I dont feel I have.

I realize I didnt talk much about Robertson but he deserves mention. He tends to be either very good or very bad...think at least 6 times he allowed at least 6 runs and 5 runs another 2 times. For the most part he had just 3 bad starts on the road ..@ NY in the divisional series , and 5 runs on two ocassions but still managed 6 and 7 innings.

He did extremely well against 4 NL Central teams (Hou , ChiC , Cincy, and Milw). In those 4 stafrts just 4 earned in 28 innings but all 4 in 13 2/3 away (Milw and Chic). All 4 went UNDER though. hile he was unscored upon in Oakland I didnt like the wayhe pitched. He battled but 9 baserunners in 5 innings basically left him with 3 consecutive poor outings...

He deserves credit but I fell he is getting 2 much at this time.