November 1st Thoughts

College Football

Under 59 -115 Fresno State (3x)
Under 17.5 -102 Fresno team total (1x)
Result -4.47 ....both teams gave eachother an ez score 45-21 final..

We have a reeling Bulldog team traveling to play rival Boise State in one of the toughest enviroments in college football. Fresno understands the cant outscore Boise so if they are to play spolier it most be the defense that leads the way. Last game @ LSU I thought they did a solid job on defense till about mid 3 rd quarter when they appeared gassed. So the offense most move chains early to keep the Bulldog defense from tiring out. Think throught the 1st6 possessions LSU had 10 points on offense plus a punt return for a score. They allowed 430 yards of offense put about 280 of that came on the last 4 drives. In recent season the matchup has been low scoring and Fresno has struggled to score against Boise....that should continue here. Only Hawaii has broken 38 on Fresno and IMO thats cause they didnt have the answers for Brennan through the air. Boise is much more reliant on Ian Johnson to get the offense going then Zabransky nowadays.

No matter how you slice it seems Boise always finds away to get the 38-45 point range so thats what I would against expect though thinking its around 35-38 pts here. Expecting something around 38-14.

NBA

Last nite was bad. In my defense who expected a 108 from Chicago and an under? Or 66 from Miami? Once Kobe doesnt play the total is a pure coin flip but lone mistakes were getting on Miami after having CHI originally but not playing LAL @ Half -5 +405!!

Indiana @ Charlotte

Well the Bobcats are a perfect 7-0 ATS versus Indiana but they have never seen such a low spread. In fact Char is 2-1 SU at home vs Indiana and this preseason in a game that featured what I would see as the real teams Charlotte beat them again.

Read this:
Nov 1, 2006 1:13pm ET
Pacers, Like Much Of NBA, Changing Speeds
In the INDIANAPOLIS STAR, Mark Montieth writes "whether or not they look good is a question for a later date, but this much is certain: The Indiana Pacers will look different this season. That familiar half-court, teeth-pulling offense has been replaced by a simplified full-court attack. Shooting guards and forwards have been replaced by a more generic term, wings. A standing, play-calling coach has been replaced by one willing to take most things sitting down.”

So while the UNDER at first looks enticing reading this and seeing the preseason scores make me think otherwise. Also when Knight joined Felton in the backcourt it appeared the offense took off. With Brezec OUT that means more minutes for Sean May. Indiana has struggled on the road going 15-29 SU last year.....

Plays:
Over 193.5 +104 Indiana and Charlotte (6x)might get cheaper
Charlotte +1 -104 (3x)
Result +3.12 L106 -99

Chicago @ Orlando

Sorry but I thought the opening line was fair for this game and say after a game to see a 6 point adjustment seems absurd. Heat just flat out stunk more then anything CHI didi last nite. A fair line is Orlando as a smal fav.....Not to mention back to back coming into play early...

Plays:
Orlando +2 -101 (6x)
Over 185 -103 Orlando & Chicago (3x) could get cheaper
Result : +9.00 W109-94
ATL @ Philly

Personally I like this 76er team and think they will suprise. Should be interesting to see how the Marvin Williams loss on the heels of the Harrington trade effects this team but ATL hung with Philly last year.....really want to play Philly here but remain cautious of the line drop.....

Plays:
Over 199-110 Philly and Atl (3x)
Result : -3.30 W88-75..liked Philly too..

New Orleans @ Boston

With Red passing away you would expect emotion to be high and NO missed alot of PT in preseason with injuries as most of the starting lineup played just 1 game together. NO another former defensive team couldnt stop anyone this preseason...

Plays:

Boston -3 -110 (4x) & Over 199 -111 (4x)

Result: L -8.84 L 91-87

Toronto @ NJ

See what I posted about Indiana well throw NJ into that story....they also have changed there offense approach this offseason.

Play:

Over 203 -110 NJN & Tor (6x)

Nets -7 -110 (6x)

Result : -.60 W102-92

Also:

5 team ML parlay (1x)

Charl ML -108 , Orl +109 , Phi -235 , Bos -152 , NJN -315

Loss -1.00

8 PM
Under 185 -110 Sac & Minny (6x)
result : +6.00 W 92-83

With Artest in Sac and Bibby out it will be defense first for the Kings.

Knicks ML +193 (1.5x)

result : +2.90 NYK wins 118-117

No Gasol and Swift ailing..worth a shot...think Isiah turns it around...

Under 194 -110 Cleveland & Wash (4x)

result : +4.00 Cavs 97-94

Tough to crack 90 in Cleveland.....

Over 194 -105 Det & Milw (6x)

Result : +6.00 Milw W 105-97

Even with Ben in the middle to clog it up this way a high scoring series...no more Wallace really should it open it up.

Under 182.5 -103 Houston &Utah (4x)

Result : -4.12 Utah 107-97

banged up stars and the Rockets mean 80 something to 80 something IMO....

Late games.....be back with those later on.... GL

Net Sides & Totals +14.16

Parlay
Cle ML -245 & Utah +101 (2x)
Cle ML , Utah ML and Minny ML (1x)

Result: both wins.. +3.66 and +3.18 (Net +5.84 on parlays)

Team Totals

Over 97 -104 Char(1.5x ) W

Over 91 -104 Orl(1x)W

Und 95 -112 Min (1.5x) W

Und 99.5 -108 Cle (1.5x) W

Und 93.5 -108 Was (1x) L

Und 91 -101 Utah (1x) L

Und 90 -108 hou (1x) L

Over 93.5 -108 Milw (2.5x) W

Result : +5.83 (5-3)

GOOD LUCK all tons of stuff but technically value is high early in the season...


Late starts: PENDING

Sonics -8.5 -103 (3x) L -3.09 SU lLoss 107-104

Warriors -6.5 -110 (6x) L -6.60

LAC +5 -110 (4x) L -4.40

Under 212 LAC -105 (3x) L-3.15

Late nite results -17.24



Team totals

Over 103 -112 Sonics (2x) Win +2

Over 105.5 -120 GS (2.5x) Loss -3

thoughat bout Portland over 94 but passed.....

Well I got screwed late......120 something 2nd H points in PHO and GS blows an 8 pt half time lead........

Sides & totals -3.08
Parlays +5.84
Team +4.83
2nd H +3.73

Still +++ but what a BS ending