World Series Game #4

Bonderman versus Suppan

In 10 2nd Home starts Suppan was dazzling. For some reason SD gives him trouble and he had 2 poor starts vs them at the end of the reg season and in the 1st round of the playoffs. Other then that he only pitched one poor game vs Philly(5 inn with 5 runs and 4 earned). His other starts read:

7 Inn 5H 1 run 2bb 6 K
7 1/3 Inn 4 H 1 run 1bb 7 K
7 2/3 Inn 5 H o runs 3 Bb 2 K
7 inn 6 H 1 run 4 BB 5 K
7 Inn 8 H 3 runs 0bb 6 K
7 Inn 5 H 2 runs 3 bb 2k
8 Inn 3 H 0 runs 1bb 4 K

Thats darn impressive..8 runs across 7 starts...51 innings....at least 7 each outing...

Now DET is just 3-5 after being shutout so no bounce back in there past. STL is 7-4 after throwing a shutout.

STL is 8-2 UNDER in SUPPAN's starts but the totals were always above 9 except on 2 occassions. DET is 2-6 UNDER after being shutout.

Its clear that the Tigers are struggling with the bat so what should change here??? Suppan is clearly throwing very well and shutdown the NYM in impressive fashion last week.

Bonderman has been fantastic on the road and at nite. He is 8-4 away(10-7) 3.63 ERA and 13-2 at nite(15-8 team) 3.35 ERA. For as well as he pitched away though we have another long layoff and he went 7 innings just 7 of 17 away. Which brings the pen into the equation and Zumaya and Rodney lacked command while Todd Jones scares no one.

Bonderman pitched well vs STL at home this year but he also faced a lineup with Timo Perez and John Rodriguez, oh and Gary Bennett.

Another cold nite and good chance of rain but it appears like more of the same tonite.....close game...low scoring....If bonderman cant shut STL down to 1 run or less wheres the value in the Dog then??

I didnt play the Under 8 yesterday and I cant force myself to play the Under here. I just expect more of the same which means a STL win...not getting crazy...

Interesting PROP will Todd Jones get a save? NO -240.......things that make you go Hmmmmmmmmm!

As a guy who looks for bad lines I see this as being off figured -120...which was still cheap as I had built in the public bias towards DETin that -120....remember Carpenter was at least a .25 cheap last nite.

Good Luck

PLAY :
Slight change
STL -105 (3x)

I just find it odd that the price gets cheaper yet it seems we have more STL backers.....also odd the vig on the total chanegd about 20 cents.

Dont bother watching CARDS fans this game is OVER!! Its so odd how the line moves in favor of DET and the OVER today and thats what we will seee....My play is a LOSER........sorry....would recomend playing the OVER in-game....

Shit I was wrong........Cards win 5-4! I was right about the over all those ingame plays had to pay nicely......except I kept missing it!!

Now 8-0 in the World Series +apprx 24x.

GL