Monday Nite Football on Espn

New England travels to Minnesota

Line is around NE -1-113 (ML -120) / 39.5 -105

There is nothing I enjoy more then the opportunity to handicap one game. Its so hard on Saturday and Sunday to express all my thoughts on the games when there are so damn many to talk about. I wish I could just think it and it would transpose itself onto my blog. The weekday games give me the opportunity to focus on one thing.

Anyway earlier in the week I like many thought wow....Vikes +3.....thats a bargain...so I grabbed in at +3 -125 I believe. Then it started to sink and was wondering why? Why did it seem like value? Was it cause they traveled to Seattle and won SU fairly convincingly? My answer was no because I had backed Minnesota in that game cause SEATTLE's Defense had been unraveling week after week. So lets look at this...

We look at what NE has done and you see a 5-1 record. You go underneath the numbers and realize they beat Buffalo twice , Miami and the Jets all really bottomfeeders in the AFC. They lost at home to Denver in a situation where they were overvalued cause of the concerns about Denvers offense. The following week @ Cincy they were extremely undervalued after the home loss and some costly turnovers led them to a convincing SU win away. So really we have seen typical NE football. Solid defense all season but it probably has gotten better as the weeks wore on. Has the offense improved? I am not ready to say that even though I love what Chad Jackson does for them. They scored 4 times last week but 1 was thanks to a short field and the others were all were they started on the NE 30 or better. My concen is can a team repeatedley go 80 or more yards up and down a field? To me NE still hasnt shown me the ability to do so. There key is great defense leading to either a short field on a turnover or putting the opposing offense ina situation where they have to punt deep from there own territory causing a starting point for the NE offense. Looking at Cincy there high offensive output where they scoed the last 24 points of the game they caused 2 Palmer fumbles to start inside the Cincy 20. The Bengals also are thin on defense with tons of injuries @ LB so they are no comparision to Minny's D.

You look @ Minny and see 31 @ Seattle....Seattle's defense is in company with Cincy for whatever reason. Ever since that big lead against NYG at home they have failed to stop anyone(think about the end of the STL game the previous week). So 30 points isnt all that impressive. Its even less impressive when you realize there last TD was off a Wallace fumble who was playing in relief of an injured Hasselback. Then they had a 95 YD TD run. Folks 95 yd TDs whether run or pass are more often then not fluke plays.....someones misses a block or assignment and in a blink your screwed. They had a 40 yd pass to Marcus Robinson who in some ways is there deep threat cause even though Williamson has the legs to stretch the field they hands and coordination arent there yet. The point is Robinson is OUT with a back injury leaving Taylor and Williamson to start both capable WR's but both were concussed last week. Another TD came off a Melwede Moore pass....not sure those type plays work against NE.

The previous week they were outplayed by DET badly but somehow got two 4th Q defensive TDS and won by 6.....Previous to that they couldnt muster enough offense and lost @ Buffalo , they couldnt muster enough offense and lost at home to CHI by 3 when the offensive couldnt produce a TD. They won @ Was in week 1 IMO cause Shawn Springs was out. The offense didnt do much except attack Rumph and Watson @ CB and those two have proven to be horrible and every team is attacking them now. They struggled to beat Carolina without Steve Smith and needed a silly play on a punt return to get there only TD. Actually after that they needed a FG fake and pass from Longwell to sc0re there only TD.

So lets recap Minny season:
Win @ Wash 19-16 ~ They score 2 TDs on offense. Chester Taylor manages only 31c 88yds and a long of 10 yards. Also Hall missed a 47 yder at the end of regulation to tie.

Win Vs Car 16-13 ~ Panthers dont have Smith and led 13-6 with about 11 to play. Minny punting from inside there 10 kick it Gamble who tries a lateral and gives Minny the ball at about the Carolina 20...On 4th and 5 from the 16 longwell throws a TD to Richard Owens..

Lose vs Chi 19-16 ~ Basically up 16-12 Taylor trying to run clock fumbled and gave CHI the short field which Grossman took advantage off after giving Minny the lead with ahorrible INT that went for 6. Minny had 3 FGS on offense but 1 was largely due to a short field off a turnover. Brad Johnson was decent that day 21 of 31 194 yds. Taylor 20c for 74yds but one run was 24 yards so do the math.....19c for 50 on the rest.

Lose @ Buff 12-17 ~ They score a late TD with 3 minutes left but cant get the 2 pt conversion. Here Taylor 10c - 23yds ....Johnson 267 yards but 44 attempts (6.1 avg). The curious part is the offense did nothing 128 yds thru 3 quarters and trailed 17-6 but managed 180 yds of offense in the 4th quarter......was it that prevent defense coupled with the playing with a lead mentality that finally allowed Minny to move the ball?? Seems that way to me...

win vs Det 26-17 ~ two 4th Q turnoves become 13 quick points for minny. They started dow 17-3 but johnson hit Talor for a short TD before the wheels unraveled for DET. Tayor had a solid day 26c 123 yds but not getting overly excited when we are talking about a decent run defense like DET's. Johnson completes 26 of 34 for only 210 yds (5.9). Also note Roy Williams left real early in this one.

At this point I believe it was offense 4 TDS and defense 3 TDS(special teams - Longwell one TD).

Since the two best offenses NE has played would be Denver and Cincy the fact they allowed 30 points combined in those games and held Cincy under 300 of yards off offense doesnt bode well for Minny tonite. Running room will be tough to come by and that leaves a ton of short routes for Brad Johnson to find. Now he is listed as having a bad hammy and that cant be good no matter how severe or not it is. Johnson is good at holding onto the ball though he does have 4 INTS and 5 fumbles to date...he has lost just 1 fumble.

As the owner of the Vikings Defense in my fantasy league I am quite aware of how well they have played and I look for that continue tonite. What concerns is Minnys offense not moving the chains and it eventually wearing down. No matter what one says or thinks the NE offense is still in much better shape then Minnys.

You want to quick recap the NE season. It goes like this. Open up versus buffalo and play awful in the 1st H for whatever erason. When push comes to shove they stop Buffalo on a 4th and 1 and use the momentum to win 19-17 while statistically dominanting the 2nd H.

They then travel to NY where they abuse the J_E_T_S and lead 24-0 though they were referee aided on the last TD. I was in attendance. I preach about how sports is about momentum. Well Cotchery highlight catch that went for a TD was a spark that ignited the jets rally. Remember though they were down 24-0....mid 3rd quarter and rhe Stadium began to empty out saying game over.......

Then they host Denver and get shutdown 17-7. Personally I feel denver and NE are basically equal....neutral field I owuld say NE is -1.5 and I backed DENV huge that Sunday nite.....so nothing really shocking to me. Two tough defenses with basically average offenses and teh points were to good to pass up. As good as Minny D is I dont think its as good as NE or Denvers......yet.

After the home loss they go on to spank Cincy 38-13 aided by 2 4th Q Palmerfumbled which resulted in 14 quick points that iced the game. As with the NYJ game MAroney and Dillon were just to much and Brady makes the plays when he needs to thru the air. Last 2 weeks vs Miami and Buffalo they played grat defense and watched the opposing QB's make costly turnovers which the NE offense took advantage off..

From a turnover standpoint if you said the defenses were equal qwould you agree johnson is more likely to get picked off instead of Brady. Would you agree Taylor or Moore is more likely to fumble rather then NE's duo?? I would think so....

I think both teams will have struggles scoring tonite. I think Maroney coming home coupled with Dillon have a better chance to run then Taylor does vs NE. With 4 options @ WR Brady seems better prepared to make plays in the passing game...9looks like Minny 3 rd option is McMullen).

While the numbers say Minny is real tough against the run and I agree the numbers are skewed when you realize the backs they have faced. Minny has played some very average offenses and worse is the QB's are also very average....while NE offense lacks explosion there is little avg about Brady , Maroney and Dillon.

You can see NE seems to enjoy playing in domes and on turf...winning 9 straight in such conditions. Brady said its almost a relief to play on turf after the slosh of NE's home field. Maroney gets to return home after his outstanding career @ University of Minnesota. Chad Jackson gives them 4 WR's to look for.

As for injuries I have that feeling that Seymour traveled to MINN as a decoy. He probably wont play but I am only guessing. The rest of the NE injury list looks like it will be able to play unless I missed something which you can definetly point out to me. For Minny I would expect everyone outside of Marcus Robinson to play.

I do not believe that NE will overlook a MNF game @ Minnesota(Indy on deck) with Belichek calling the shots.....do you??

The Line??
Think about this Minnesota was only -2 vs Carolina and w/o Steve Smith. Smith is so valuable to that offense I would believe that if he Plays Carolina is a small favorite. Carolina is stronger then Minnesota. Chicago was 3.5 to Minny in the dome? Does anyone believe looking at CHI play away they are better on the road then NE? I sure dont. Minny was only -6.5 at home vs DET and was very lucky to win that. So to me the fair line is -2.5 or -3 here which is where it opened.

Its been down to -1 for a few days and nomatter what you believe or see its getting fairly even action at -1. Which IMO is a soft number....so if the betting public 'buys' into a soft number they tend to be wrong..cause IMO they average joe doesnt understand what a line is or how to devise one. After much work and thought minny would only have value at + 3.5 or better. Its INSANE to believe that Minny should be favored there big win is versus Seattle when its star RB was out and start QB got hurt and didnt play the 2nd H.....otherwise they lost to Buffalo and Chicago....edged out Carolina , Det and Washington.....


Be back shortly with my plays...I already played Minny +3 but will middle that . I played the under @ 38.5 thinking it wont go higher so I wish I waited as it is no w40....

Gimme a few ..........GOOD LUCK


Plays:
Vikings + 3-125 (5x) from earlier in the week but played NE -118 ML (5x) to middle.
(Net cost -1.25)
Under 38.5 -105 (3x) ~ (38) Win +3.00 & 2nd H middle Over 17.5 -113 (3x) (21) Win +3.00
Under 40.5 -110 (3x) ~ (38) Win +3.00
Under 19 +100 Minny team(2.5x) (7) Win +2.50
NE ML -118 (8x) & -117(2x) NE Win 31-7 +10.00
1st half Under 20 -110 (2x) WIN 17-0 NE. (+2.00)

I think I did well....sure abit lucky with the unders but I had that game firly well pegged except for MIN pass defense. Really won everything ....+6 on the Under , +3 2nd Over which was a hedge , +2 1sT H under , +2.5 Minny under team 19 , +10 NE ML......folks that +23.5x but it cost me -1.25 to middle my original play on Minny..

Net +22.25 units tonite! Makes up for a so-so Sunday! Hope I was of help

My last game comment is while the DOME is unchartered territory for NE this season it can't be a huge concern for me with NE coaching staff. The Moon ceremony coupled with MNF atmosphere is toiugh to overcome but I feel this number is soft not inflated....Waiting to see what the line does BUT how can anyone say there is anything bout equal action at -1? the vig and the number hasnt moved.......sharps?? are just respected bettors NOT all knowing beings from a different galaxy. if the data is correct the sharp shave Minny +3 or maybe 3.5 not Minny +1 IMHO..

I'll be updating and looking for 20-16 but 20-13 possibly...

Also a book like BoDog has Minny +3 -130 IMO to draw the suckers.....most people wont play the Pats there if they can do better everywhere else....just another sign IMO to how bogus the percentages of some of these sites are.....money is split on this game @ -1....and has alot of Minny +3 money.....so who do you think th ebooks need tonite???