Football week of 10/23 -10/29 Early thoughts

After further review Week 8 in the NFL

Play: Arizona +4.5 -110 (5x)

Curious as to the staus of Adrian Wilson(now probable) and Karlos Dansby(out) but James Darling should return . I do believe that Greg Jennings is OUT while GB already misses Ferguson and Robinson. A couple of undrafted rookies will get the nods at the #2 and #3 spots. That seems troublesome with Favre throwing some of the toughest passes to catch. To there credit the youngsters made a couple of play @ Miami last week. Not crazy about a warm weather team playing in GB but low 40's arent that bad. Charles Woodson showed up for the first time this season in GB but otherwise the pass defense has been horrid. Edge hasnt found any running room and GB is fairly solid against the run . Zona hasnt shown much away losing @ Seattle , @ Atl(though Warner KILLED them in the 1st two away) and now @ Oakland....lets be honest though Oak was a tough spot after the MNF collapse with Leinart making his 1st road start(bad choice by me hopping on Zona). Basically a GB team that has been DOGS to everyone is now favored....hmmmm.....Dare I say overreaction!! Game probably should be a PK... Remember they were home dogs to NO in week 2 AND Favre has made a mistake or two late in games already...

Looking @ buying Houston to +3.5(already went Under 42 -110 3x)

Lets face it Tenn has been +10 , +17 and +12.5 past 3 weeks now they are favored?? Favorite is 0-5 ATS in the series. Houston just hosted JAX and cruised to a win which generally is a spot I dont like to follow up. With HOUSTON for a HALF they played great football @ Dallas till the wheels came off. Thats gonna happen with them cause they just have inferior talent and depth. Despite not winning on the ROAD in a long , long time how are these teams equal? Would Houston been +12.5 @ Wash 2 weeks ago? Very unlikely since they were +13 @ Dallas. Tenny is capable of making plays BUT still very inconsistent. The Titans have put forward top effort though I must say. Still they dont force teams into mistakes and if you allow Carr time he is a solid QB. Lets not get to excited about about a Tenny team that scored less then 16 points in each of there first 5 games. They played great as BIG DOGS @ Indy and @ Wash difference is now at home they are basically expected to win not just show up....


Playing: Broncos -2.5 -110 (7x)

I feel over the years I have noticed that Indy doesnt like physical teams and we all know about this Denver defense. Indy CANNOT stop the RUN and we know that is a huge concern. Basically cause it allows DENVER to control the game and keep the ball away from Peyton. Also with a so-so running game in Indy the Broncos can focus more on the passing game. Remember that DEN went to NE and totally shut the PATS offense down! We keep hearing how bad Plummer is but he really hasnt played a soft defense yet....the rams started the season playing solid DE and Oakland is actually solid on defense this year. Plummer has shown some progress over the weeks and the key is he only needs to help move the chains. Look at how Indy at home struggled verus Jax and remember they most contend with the elements of playing in NOV. Now remember that Indy just lost Doss as well. You cant be impressed with the WASH game cause if you paid attention they lost Carlos Rogers and Springs was still less then 100%. The secondary struggled before losing Rogers so it was gigantic hit that showed...they also played without a DT and LB...Skins were banged up !! Both Colts games away came down to the wire. NYG didnt have the team in sync in week 1 and the Jets gave them a scare! Just dont belive the HYPE surrounding the DEN offense..

Plays I put in w/o research...

Under 42 -110 Houston & Tenny (3x)
Under 41 -105 TB & NYG (3x)
Rams +10 -116 (6x) might buy some back cause who doesnt like STL? Gonna take 3x off this play since it was made thinking no Merriman.
Over 42 -122 Rams (8x) played thinking Merriman would be out
Vikings +3 -125 (5x) &.
Under 38.5 -105 Oakland (3x)
Seattle +6 +100 (5x) was leaning this way and now Huard gets hurt in pratice. Should have played more but it got pulled rather quickly
Eagles -6.5 -110 (3x)

Today's thoughts:
ATL@Cincy now see -3.5 -101 absolutely playing at this level or cheaper.

My first instinct was to go with ATL +4.5 then I started diving into this matchup. First thing is Cincy is struggling some but they have also played NE , @ TB and Car which would qualify as some of the better defenses in the league. Even with all the talent on ATL they are still proving to be a disappointment IMO. They have lost Abraham for awhile and regained Hartwell who I think will need time to get a groove. Also Rod Coleman missed last week and that is a huge loss if he again doesnt play. Look at the past 6 quarters of football for ATL, belive they have allowed 72 points!!

Lets talk about the line itself. Cincy just was -3 to Carolina and pushed so FAIR line IMO. If ATL played Carolina today on a neutral field would the line by -1?? Absolutely not IMO probably -3. Realize that ATL was just a home dog to Pitt and while they won its wasnt decisive IMO. Cincy traveled to Pitt catching 2 and won. However I would say Pitt beat themselves that day. Still the line of +2 implies Cincy is a better team when you take into account home field is worth 3 or 3.5 points in theory.

So now that this line is dropping we cn get 3.5 at many placs if I get -3 I would make a fairly sizeable play on Cincy here. The public is in love with Vick and his 4 TDS...

With regards to Balt @ NO I have changed my stance. Why?

After much thought I am not sure this game should see NO as a favorite. Really it should be a PK and my gametime I expect this to move to 2 or 2.5. Lets remember that the Ravens defense is still a tough matchup. NO has managed to win close games vs Philly and TB. Is TB any better then Balt??? Definetly not IMO especially on defense. To much talk about NO's going undefeated at home has made people forget the just won there last 2 games in the final minutes. McNair has shown the ability to make plays late in the game and that can never be discounted for the simple fact the Ravens defense will always kep them in the game. Remember a bad decision @ Denver before half sealed there fate. The Saints have allowed some huge chunks on the ground and with Fassel gone I would suspect we see alot of Jamal Lewis here, along with Musa Smith and Mike Anderson. Also losing Roman Smith at Safety was huge and the Saints defense hasnt looked sharp past 2 games. leaning towards the DOG if we get the move I suspect is coming.....Balt 17-16. remember Deuce was banged up and Bush hasnt done much in the running game with BALT coming it 3.3 per carry allowed. A young Gradkowski was 20 of 31 for 220 and @tds versus NO in his 1st career road start.

Another one I rethought and wished I played on Monday is Jax @ Philly.

It looks like alot of points to give Jags but they are banged up. If Garrard plays is this the right spot for him Or if Leftwich plays is the Blitz master Jimmie Johmson gonna set them loose versus a bad ankle QB. A defense that could be without Hayward , Peterson (both gone for the season), Wiley questionable but hasnt played in weeks and Stroud oubtful who was out last week. No wonder Houston scored 27. Philly should be aided by Stallwortsh return as well as the anger of 2 straight losses...bringing the games that got away number to 3 this year. Weather doesnt appear to be an issue but wind might be and its stilla FLA team in late OCT playing in the NE. No matter how you slice it or dice it Eagles should be good for at least 21 at home....scoring 14 @ Indy and 7 @ Houston now with QB issues doesnt make me believe it will be EZ for them to break 14 here.....Just remember the playoff game @ NE and think of a similiar type ENDING here. Still some-6.5 -110 out there...

Some TB @ NYG thoughts:

People are all over TB here. With good reason they look like a new team past few weeks. I think if you look at the fact this team was +7 @ NO and + 6 at home to Philly traveling to the Meadowlands at just +9 seems a bit low. Does to me . Now factor in that Gradkowski is having trouble withhis deep ball and you look at his last 2 games and see 4.18 and 4.00 yds per pass attempt. His game in NOwas actually only 5.77 if you take out the 52 yder to Galloway.

factor in both teams are banged up but NY has the depth to overcome it unless there CB situation worsens . Wyms , rice , Quarles and bolden all listed as questionable for TB. Ny off two big road wins and a MNFgame face a defense that hasnt stopped the RUN at all on teh road see ATL stats and Deuce 15c 123 yards. There passing defense hasnt been so solid either. I expect a low scoring game around 23-13. When it starts dropping below -9 I'll take notice...

SF @ Chi

I am torn on this game. Last year SF had no offense and covered( Trust me I know about the WIND that day) . This year Smith looks decent and played vs Chi in the preseason with good results and the Bears dont have Mike Brown. Which I think will show up more in there pass defense then the run defense. I think with a healthy OL Smith might actually break 10 points and see 13 or 14. Both teams needed a week off after there last game. I thought -17 was fair but I think people could be fading Chi cause ofMNF.....



Team totals
Under 22 -104 Tenny (1x)
Under 18.5 Jax -110(2.5x)
Over 19 .5-115 ATL (1x)
Under 13 SF -113 (2x) Mike Brown out though he missed after week 13 last year
Over 18 Rams -112 (2x)

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NCAAF

Vatech +4 or better

Will I agree that Clemson is rising and VaTech sliding before our eyes this spread seems ridiculous. They have common opponents in UNC and GaTech. Now while GT exposed VaTech in Blacksburg they were still 8.5 pt dogs while the Hokies were missing 2 very key players. This week GT was heavily backed and was only +7 @ Clemson and kept it close(trailed 17-7) to there defense finally tired after repeated 2 minute possession by the offense. Now Chauncey Stuckey returns here but he probably wont be himself IMO. The running game was huge for Clemson.

Early on Clemson traveled to BC as -1pt chalk and lost a game they should have won in OT and VT just lost there last week as 2.5 pt chalk. They both played UNC and Tech beat them in NC 35-10 as 13 pt favs. While Clemson smoked them 52-7 as 15pt favs.......so really what these lines are saying in the eyes of oddsmakers VaTech is the stronger team on a neutral field ( somewhere around 2 points ...plus HFA and we probably would see -5.5 IF VatTech was playing up to there capabilities)

They arent though and the passing game is troublesome. Both teams possess strong defenses. I think we can agree that Clemson has struggled on the road abit. They blew the game to BC , they were tied late in the 4thQ versus FSU who I dont think is very good and struggled to win @ Wake 27-17 and need a 24 pt 4th Q comeback to do that. I think VaTech at home is just a different animal and I heavily backed them versus SoMiss recently. I expect a defensive battle here and will look to play the under if this total sneaks higher. Proctor hasnt looked very sharp without Stuckey and after weeks of not praticing you wonder how effective the duo will be.

Play: VaTech +4.5 -102(5x), ML +176 (1x) ,VaTech +6 -115(2x) @ BoDog, under 43 -105 (2x) , Under 23.5 Clemson team +114(1x)

Result: Hokies Win 24-7!!! and I hit everything...+11.90

Friday:

Over 54 -110 (3x) UTEP @ Tulsa

UTEP +14.5 -107 (1x) & +15 -110(2x) after some rethinking

Look at the past 3 meetings. Then see how poorly UTEP's defense has played especially in road games. There doesnt seem to be any reason why Tulsa is not in the 30's probably 35++. While the Tulsa defense has played fairly well UTEPs offense should be able to make plays in the passing game with Palmer. For that reason I think UTEP breaks the 20 point barrier in a shootout...

Saturday..

This week it appears Drew Tate is OUT and I was already close to playing Northern Illinois...so on this news I now am...

Oklahoma @ Missouri
Troubled by the loss of DE Smith I dont see much to get excited about with Oklahoma. Just who have they beat? Colorado , Iowa State and Mid Tenn State recently at home. They were outplayed by UT in the Red River shootout. There claim to fame is the Oregon game and we all know AP isnt around. Missouri was impressive in winning @ TexTech then almost winning @ A&M. Chase Daniels has surpassed expectations and where is the blemish on Missouri?? Both played Colorado and cruised to wins...why shouldnt Missouri be -3 here? Like the Under but waiting after 47 was missed. Paul Thompson is going to have do better then a 100 yards passing here.

Play: Missouri ML -115 (3x)

INJURY GAME: play- Northern Illinois +17 +102 (5x)

We know Iowa will be w/o QB Drew Tate . This is his 2nd missed start and the offense looked out of sync he 1st time @ Syracuse. Shonne Greene is also OUT for IOWA @ RB. Basically Iowa has been unimpressive outside of the whopping they put on Purdue. I really cant say UNI has been impresive at all but Horvath and Wolfe are veterans. Want to see how this line reacts. One would think it would have immediately been adjusted with the suprise announcement...so curious to say the least.

Virginia ML +105 (3x)

A couple weeks back I figured that when Maryland traveled to UVA the game should have been a PK or maybe -1.5. Well Maryland came back and won by 2. Last week Maryland jumped out to a 20-0 lead and NCST didnt play well on offense( number basically said both teams were equal). We have to remember Evans is a young , inexperienced QB getting his 1st road tests. UVA defense continues to fly under the radar and there weak link IMO is avoiding big pass plays. Otherwise its hard to grind yards out versus them. Wolfpack also didnt play well @ So Miss. I'll continue to ride the Sewell train here....

Over 55 -105 Indiana & Mich State (3x) 1st H over 27.5 -105 (1x)

High number but two defenses who havent really stopped anyone . Stanton should have a field day verus this defense and I would definetly expect a 35 pt day here. Indiana showed the ability to move the ball till they ran into Ohio State. Last year the total was 61.5 and Indiana has a better chance of putting points on the board at home IMO.

Notre Dame @ Navy

Really this is about the loss of the NAVY QB. The offense looked clueless versus RU once Brian Hampton was lost. Has the time off and pratice reps helped Enhada? Unless you can see the pratices you just dont know. I do think the ND defense has played fairly well recently as has Navys for the most part. So I am leaning heavy towards the UNDER here as its a neutral field(somewhat) I believe..waiting for 49 or better ...also thinking if ND drops they could be worth a play. After all there ATS losses could they be getting cheap? Well if the offense plays like it did 2 weeks ago for Navy that could be the case.

Northwestern @ Michigan

The Wildcat defense hasnt looked very good week after week watching teams top 30 points. That could be partially due to the fact the offense doesnt have many sustained drives and has alot of turnovers. With the SOPH at QB the Wildcats actually had an offense though it disappeared in crunch time. Was that a momentum shift , inexperience , lack of pratice reps....who knows. The Wolverine defense is stout...point will be tough but the Wildcats have managed to hang around for a half and then fade @ Penn State and @ Wisky. People who know Michigan alot better then I believe Carr will keep the offense very vanilla till Ohio State...which seems logical to me. Michigans offense hasnt been explosive lately even before manningham was lost...if we can keep Mich away from teh 38 ++ barrier this should be a cover....big IF though...

Scary that the Wildcats could still be thinking about the collapse but in away they have to be happy they actually ahd an offense and better days could be ahead.

1st half +19.5 -101 (1x) game +35 -120 (2x)

No opinion on Auburn @ Miss or Wisky versus Illini other then the obvious. Would have liked to play the Cincy under but debated and missed 42 now 37.5.

Under 48 -110 Purdue & Penn State (2x)

Neither offense has it together and Penn State shutdown Ohio State IMO. They allowed Minny to come back by letting them hang around. The Boilmakers played decent defense vs Wisky who is a much better offense then Penn State now. Still would rather play the Nittany Lions if I had to chose.

Vandy @ Duke bought +10 -120 (2x)

Duke is showing some improvement on defense lately when they arent giving short fields. Hard to back Duke but Vandy hasnt actually played well on offense especially in road games. Leaning hard to the points...fading a young QB as road chalk

Buffalo +36 -110 (3x)

While the past few weeks BC has impressed me especially on defense. This is clearly a good spot to rest up abit with Ryan ailing. There offense hasnt exactly clicked past few weeks and I am note sure they can score 42 points here. Before this week @ Ohio U these guys had some good showings at top tier schools. Its kind of odd that BC biggest spread was -11 this season and they just played Maine with lackluster results. Ryan and Gonzo banged up.

Temple +20 -105 (5x)& ML +840(1x)

Call me crazy but Temple offensively seems to be improving. At least to the point where in garbage time they will score. BG has put up 70 the past 2 years versus Temple but Omar Jacobs is gone and the team has struggled all year. Recently just struggling to beat EMU at home. Temple gave a decent effort versus Kent State and the over 53 is always attractive...

The 2 Pm starts:
Miami Ohio vs Ball State

Its clear that Ball State cannot stop opposing QB's and mike Kokal has improved past few weeks. The home squad also has the better defense. The Ball State QB's have lofty passing numbers but can they do it vs Miami?? They kept Hrovath to under 200 yards and both home games were narrow losses. Just to tight for me to call....

Over 55-105 BYU & Air Force (5x)

BYU has rolled AF the past 2 years putting up a 103 points in the process while Beck and Brown have enjoyed tremendous sucess. AF has played better defensively this year but I dont see how BYU who scored seemingly at will @ TCU will be held to under 35 points. AF should certainly score in the 20's versus an average defense.

Army +6 -104 (3x) and Over 50-05 (3x)

Basically no one can figure out Army but the fact Tulane is a favorite is fadeworthy in itself. Army looks good a few weeks then falls apart. Really both defenses leave alot to be desired. Tulane has allowed at least 24 points in every game but they can score.

Thinking Under 41 -113 Kent State and Ohio.

Kent State hasnt allowed more then 17 point ssince the opener but the offense has improved. Ohio U has played decent defense in road games @ Illinois , @ Northern Illinois,@ RU @ Missouri...

Colorado @ Kansas

Tough game. Kansas has lost 4 straight games they could have won including the last 3 the lead at half....hard to back them against a decent defense.

No interest in Kentucky @ Miss State Or FIU @ Bama...

Under 42 -112 Wake & UNC (3x)

Two struggling offenses versus solid defenses. Well UNC defense can be solid at times but there offense managed only 20 points once this year versus a 1A opponent...and that was garbage time. Wake struggled to move the ball most of the season needing good field positon to score. They scored 25 @ NCST but had three 50 yd ++ FGs and a saftey...

USC @ Oregon State

If I caught this early would have played the under since it opened at 50 but 45 is tough.

Miami +6 -110 (3x)

Really GT never plays well as a fav and struggled with UVA and Maryland at home. Miami will still play tough defense despite the late collapse @ Duke.

If I could figure out the Minnesota offense and if they could score 10-14 points here I would probably play the overespecially @ 48 .

Over 51 -105 Nebraska & Ok State (5x)

Over 57 -105 UCF and Houston (4x)

Well UCF has not been able to stop any QB's and enter Kolb. With the switch to Israel and Kenny Smith running the ball UCF still has an offense that can make noise...38-21?

Iowa State +5.5 -110(3x)

As bad as the cyclones look how is this line possible? Kansas State hasnt actually done much on offense to get excited about laying points. Lets see if they can exploit the Iowa State defense

Marshall should run Bradshaw right over Memphis but think -7 might be abit much...

Late starts

UCLA -114(3x)

Lets see Wash State traveling after a home upset.....recipe for disaster. The UCLA offense seems to be okay w/o Olsen and there defense has allowed just 33 points in 4 games at home. Wash State allowing 370 yards per last 3.

Thing ASU +1.....can Bonnell cut down the INT's?? Playing ASU ML jsut waiting......

Texas Tech +12 -110 (3x)

Texas coming off the hard fought win @ NEB will have another tough venue on there hand. I think Vince Young was teh main reason why TT had no chance verus UT. With him now gone I think we have competitive games again. The UT secondary still struggling.....

Despite the impressive ARK run it would be UL Monroe +36 or pass.

Baylor +5 -110 (5x)

its one weakness on defense versus another strength for both sides here. However Baylor has played good outside of the UT and Army games. TAMU has been in 5 of 6 games decided by 1 possession recently. They were +3 @ Ok State an luckily won and -1 @ KU and won late in the game. baylor just spotted KU a 20 pt lead and shut them down and won...think this number is way off...Oh and Baylorhas given TAMU hell the past 2 years they know they can win this game.

TCU -6 sounds like alot but 17-10 is win....just dont like Wyoming to score much here. They were +5 @ Cuse and lost by 6...

Thinking SC +5 w/o Coker to run the ball.

Under 71.5 -104 Hawaii (3x)

Thinking worst case we see 42-21 type game here. Hawaii exploded for 2 consecutive weeks away versus awful defenses. It didnt do much till the 4th Q at NMST. Idaho hasnt been able to consistently move the ball away and was shutout by Hawaii last year. Think its agame Hawaii has control but never gets up that big....


GL


Last minute thoughts....

- Somewhat concerned the Iowa line hasnt moved with Tate out but not buying any back at the moment. I really want to play the over 47. What scares me is no Tate and Wolfe's past2 games!
- happy to be on Buff with banged up Ryan and Gonzalez.
-Would like to take a shot with UNC here since I dont like the WF offense to be road chalk.
-Really like ND but hate road chalk and wanted to play the UND 48 but missed it now 47.
- think 37 is way to low for NCST/ UVA..over is calling
-Like FSU -3.5 but concerned that Fagg is out.
- Cuse and Natti how did I miss that 42 total?
-How in the hell has that dropped 5 points....Arrington OUT now as well , possibly?
- I am crazy but really like Illinois +21 or better...take out Cuse and RU and there defense has played well!! Thinking 27-10......
- Mich State and Indiana looks like we get the bst number on the total but big moves always unnerve me.
-I really wont be suprisd if Temple wins SU. However I am kicking myself for waiting on the total had 53.5 on my radar now 48.5!!!
- Probably a good spot to grab AF as 10 pt home dog after DD road chalk SU loss.
- Want to play Miami-Ohio but scared at -4 which makes -5 even tougher.
- Expecting a shootout down in Texas Tech or Lubbock.
- thought hard about Penn State but how can you lay with them after last week? its been a season long slump though. Happy that total came back down to 48 saw 49.5 and was oh shit!
- Minny looks like it might be w/o there TE and Ginn is banged up and could be limited. total looked attractive till these injuries...
- hoping SC creeps back up so I can fade Tenny
-thinking hard about Georgia @ +14.
- missed USC under 50.now 44.5
- passed on the OHIO U under now 40
- playing ASU ML at some point see -120.
- utah , Nevada , SJST , andMarshall look readyto roll.
-Now thinking hard about Miss State.
-thought about UCF but there dfense is?
-real like Toledo +5 and ML
- on Miami but over 37ish is attractive
-wanted under 40 Oklahoma now 45.5
- Colorado and Kansas seems like and under 42
-damn 55 Nebraska was over 51....
-hoping TCU gets cheaper so I can pounce.
- East carolina looks good+6
- not sure about Idaho and Hawaii
-maybe NT +10.5
-still thinking UL Monroe +36!

Team Totals

Under 39.5 BC -108 (1.5x)
Under 17 -110 Navy (1x)
Under 24.5-108 Wake (1.5x)
Under 35.5 -108 Bowl Green (2x)
Over 31 and Over 24 Mich State and Indiana -108 (1x each)
Over 16.5 -108 Temple (1.5x)
Over 27.5 -116 tulane (1x)
Under 13.5 Eastern Mich -108 (1x)
Over 15.5 -108 Miami U (2x)
Over 20.5 -108 ECU (1x)

World Series Game 1 & 2 (SUNDAY NCAAF)

Reyes versus Verlander

First 5 Inn STL +173 (1x)
Over 4.5 -102 First 5 Inn (2x)
Over 8.5 -105 (4x)

I dont have much a feel if any for this game. Generally I just think a game played in an AL Park with an 8.5 total better have some elite SP. This doesnt. Verlander is the worlds biggest mystery everytime he toes the rubber. He has acknowledged fatigue has been a factor and has been given time off for that. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesnt. I know his velocity will be there but in his 2 road playoff starts he was hittable. Will being at home change that?? I dont know..

Reyes is a top prospect who is a good pitcher but doesnt have electrix stuff like Verlander. He struggled on the road and the jitters could be an issue for both. I would assume that Reyes has a quick hook tonite and the Cards pen was so-so in the NYM series. Det has Zumaya as a question mark IMO cause you truly dont know what to expect.

Really just what I would call a value play but also maybe I am syubborn losing a couple totals in game 5 and 7 as well...

Good Luck

Game 2 Weaver @ Rogers

Basically we have Kenny Rogers at home where he was his best in 2006. We have STL facing a LHP on the road which is significant cause as I have harped on this many a time already. The Cards lost 14 of 17 away vs LHP but have on 2 of 3 in the postseason. Winning 2-0 @ SD , winnning 3-1 @ NY and losing 2-0 @ NYM. Weaver was involved in 2 of those games and all were low scoring. Weaver should be familiar with Comerica since he is an ex Tiger and pitched well there in his lone 2006 start.

What I think is overlooked is Reyes is actually worth more then Weaver if you look back at the ML's. While Rogers is also worth more then Verlander. So in technical sense this line could easily be -200 in spread value terms with last nite closing @ -185. Rogers was -140 versus Suppan already this year. Weaver is 5-2 (5-5) 3.58 ERA away (teams avg only 3.10 runs off him) with 6 of 10 falling UNDER. Rogers is 9-3(14-4) 2.85 ERA at home. With the Under going 13-4-1 for him and teams abg 3.38 runs. Its going to be cold and miserable so hopefullt that helps.

kept it real simple cause there is no built in value with these lines they are basically what was expected....

So small plays
Tigers -176 (3x)
Und 8.5 -117 (1.5x)


Sunday College
South Florida +1 -108 (4x)

Feel that despite the cold weather USF is clearly the superior team here. In fact they should absolutely be favored in Cincy IMO. Short on time but Cincy struggles versus the pass and the USF defense is solid vs the run.

Good Luck

Saturday 10-21 College Football Plays

Wanted to clean up my card and in some ways cut down on it a bit . So I'll breakdown the plays by times. Please note some plays may have been cut in size as I feel I have to many today.

NOON & 1 PM starts

Under 48 -105 Northwestern (6x)
Under 45.5 -105 Louisville (4x)
Over 43 -113 Maryland (5x) & Under 45 -112 (1x)
Over 52 -117 Ohio State (2x)
Mississippi +17.5 (5x) & +21 -110 (4x) REAL NERVOUS ABOUT THIS.
Purdue +13 and under 63 2 team Teaser (2x)

2 PM starts

Ball State +4 -107 (4x) ML +156 (1x)

Buffalo +17 -110(2x)

UCLA +14.5 -110(3x)

Under UCLA 51 -133 (2x)

Over 47 -105 Baylor (5x)

Over 54 -105 Temple (5x)

TEASER(4X)

Georgia -6.5 , Over 40 Auburn and Pittsburgh +4(change)

3:30 PM to 7PM

Over 42 -125 Alabama(5x)

Army +13 -110 (2x)

Texas Tech ML -130 (2x)

Iowa +13.5 -110 (2x)

Under 44 -110 Iowa (3x)

Over 54.5 Rice -105 (3x)

Night Starts(after 7 PM)

Ok State ML -130 (3x)

Under 39.5 -105 Oklahoma (3x)

Under 45.5 -105 UAB (2x)

VaTech -13.5 and -16.5 -110(3x each)

North Texas +10.5 -108 (3x)

Under 44 -105 Mid Ten (2x)

GaTech +7.5 -108 (3x)

Under 47 Clemson -105 (5x)

New Mex State +18.5 -110 (3x)

Fresno State +32.5 -101 (3x)

Leans

Over 53 LSU

UTEP +6

Team Totals:

Under 19.5 Rutgers -119 )1x)

Under So Miss +11.5 +103 (2x)

Over 10.5 Temple -108 (1x)

Under 28.5 -116 Michigan (1x)

Under 14.5 -119 Wash U (1x)

Under 11.5 Stanford +100 (1x)

Under 18.5 Arizona -108 (1x)

Under 26.5 -108 OU (1x)

Under 26.5 +114 Clemson (1x)

NFL Sunday

Already on:

Buffalo +6 -110(7x)

It seems that NE off a BYE week is being inflated. We saw NE open the season laying 10 at home and barely win. Since then I havent seen much improvement from the NE offense. The way I see it value wise is Buff is stronger then the Jets so that gains makes this line high...playing this primarily cause its a conference game wioth what I feel is an inflated line even with NE and Belichekl having 2 weeks to prepare.

Vikings +7.5 -120(5x)

What has happened to the Seattle defense? 95 points past 3 weeks and Minny rested off a BYE. Basically I think Minnesota can move the ball thru the air with Brad Johnson. Minny against medicore offenses has not allowed more then 19 poinst this year..that should end Sunday though. I just dont see the Seahawks in sync and Minny gives them a headache all game. Line probably should be closer to -4.5. Neither team will have much success against the other on the ground.

Arizona ML -130(played before MNF started)(4x)

Right now Oakland has trouble moving the ball on offense and have to wonder how ARIZONA responds. Leinart looks very smooth and this is his 1st road start. If Cleveland was favored @ OAK then IMO the CARDS clearly deserve to be. Hopefully the switch with offensive cordinators maximizes there potential. Clearly it wont happen overnite bu thopefuly a step in the right direction. Whats lost is how well the Zona defense played IMO and Jordan is ailing....

KC +6 -115 (5x) /Under 41.5 -110 (3x)

Just a ridiculous number IMO. KC played like shit but ran into a sleeping giant @ Pitt. I think these teams are basically the same as the 2005 versions and KC won at home as a PK. The key is LJ and the play of the OL here. SD seemed to have trouble slowing the SF offense in the 1st H not sure what changed after halftime. I am not buying into SD as an offensive juggernaut when LT has done little past few games. I know he had 4 TDS last game but there just inside th e10 and handed him the ball against a defense that couldnt slow OAKLAND. Last 4 weeks 21c 71 yds , 13c 36yds , 27c 98yds , 19c 71 yds...not very impressive. KC is a veteran defens that will rebound IMO. Expecting a real low scoring battle here....

Houston +10 -113 (3x) Now off the board due to Leftwich's status.

Again just ridiculous number. Houston played a good half @ Dallas...only a half but a misleading final. What has Jax done besides the 41-0 game to be 10 pt chalk away? They are 0-2 on the road and I think this number is gigantic. Would Indy even be -10 @ Houston... I'll be on this and see how Jags again battle these defensive injuries. History on the Texans side as wellATL +1 +102 (now +2.5)GB +4 -108 (now +4.5) WR woes nowDenver -4.5Was thinking Denver here since there defense is awesome and the Browns cant stop the run. Just not sure laying -4.5 against an always tough Brown squad is worth it.Lions +3.5 -104 Played it early then changed my mind when Rogers got suspended since he is there defense. Will revisit later in the week but for now I am off it and washed my play.

Looking at:

Cincy -3-107/ under 44.5 -113 (passed on)
Think there is alot of overreaction with Cincy. Now they lost Levi Jones but he wasnt a 100% anyway IMO. carolina struggles at time defending the run and has escaped with some narrow wins against TB and Balt who played with Boller @ QB. The key is slowing DeShaun Foster and that is why we need to check wha LBers are healthy for Cincy. This is turning into a must win for Cincy...

Miami -5-109 (5X)
Sounds crazy but this line looks soft... trust me...just cant get the fact Miami is something like 2-16 ATS as a home fav. Dont forget two things here. First cold weather team playing in teh mIami heat and it should be 85++. The other is GB is a dog at home so all there road lines should basically be a TD or more..

TB +6.5 -110(3x)

The BLITZ factor could be huge here but this number is about what it should be considering the TB slow start. They have been in the past 3 games though.

Denver -4.5 -110(4x)Over 31 passed

Looking at the Browns banged up secondary. Cant see how Denevr doesnt score here. Cleveland is soft versus the run and we learned that Denver is a step up from Balt who laid 7 in Cleveland...they did barely win though....so -4.5 seems real fair in comparision.

Indy -8 +101(4x)

If I could figure out the Colts injury report especially on defense I would make a play. For WASH the secondary is in shambles with Rogers out and Springs still less then 100% and not starting last I heard. Last week both starting DT's missed the game and Travis Henry had a field day. The Colts clearly struggles versus the run and that is a concern. With 3 common opponents this line probably should be 10-12 points. Indy hosted Jags as -6.5 and with Skins being a FG home dog vs Jax I can safely say that Skins are 4 pts worse then Jags and NYG on neutral fields. Basically anything under -10 with both corners and DTs out presents value IMO.

Teaser (3x)
Over 37 Indy , over 30 Seattle , Over 21 Denver

Team Totals
Over 19 -115 Lions (3x)
Over 18 -112 Broncos(2x)
Under 18.5 -112 Oakland (2x)

working on the rest....GL

Saturday 10-21 College Football Thoughts

Here we go: (way to many plays)

Saturday :

Under 54.5 -105 Syracuse & Louisville(5x)

The Orangeman did a decent job on defense last year in Louisville and and last home game vs Pitt. The Cards offense was abit out of sync and I am not sure they have the running game to exploit Cuse weakness. The Cuse offense still seems to struggle versus any above average defenses see Iowa , Pitt and WVU game. The Cards defense has been real solid at hasnt allowed more then 17 points since the opener....(31-21 still cashes)


VaTech -13.5 -110 (3x) & -16.5 -120 (3x) could actually add.

Simply put you know VaTech is coming out hungry here especially in a TV game at nite off 2 losses . The So Miss offense has looked awful on the road and now we know the line jumped cause RB snesation Damion Fletcher underwent surgery and is OUT. They scored 6 @ Tulsa , 7 @ Florida and 19 @ UCF most thanks to game changing momentum turnovers and UCF defense is very inconsistent!!(see Pitt game). I dont see them breaking 14 points here and might play a team total as well depending. Tulsa and both UCF should have scored in at least in the high 20's and FLA scored 34 so after 2 straight losses you would expect this VaTech squad to break 30(low before BC was 26 vs GT). The line could seem high but look at it like they were -29 to cincy and -8.5 to GaTech....I would think GaTech is alot better and stronger line value wise then So Miss so the initial 5 pt seperation bewteen the games looks LOW and as I said Cincy was -29 ... No matter what you think of the VaTech offense think of it as a play against the SoMiss offense.

Over 47 -105 Baylor and Kansas -105 (5x)

Both offenses playing well recently. Baylor has played decent defense at home but against TCU , Army and Kansas State 3 sluggish offenses. Kansas doesnt seem to be able to defend the pass see Nebraska and Ok State(Shawn Bell for Baylor put up 30+ @ Col & @ Tex). The Kansas offense has been a little inconsistent but played some good games vs Ok St , @ Neb and @ Toledo.....expecting a shootout.

Over 54 -105 Temple (5x)

Just what the doctor ordered for NIU. Wolfe and Horvath should explode especially since Wolfe was shut down by WMU. The Temple offense continuesto improve and NIU defense isnt very special ....42-14 worst case IMO...

Rice & UCF Over 54.5 -105 (3x)

Both teams seem defensively challenged. UCF has a good offense that just appears to self destruct. You would hope they show up this week after taking last week off against pitt. They have serious issues defending the pass. Rice has put up points against all the teams that arent major schools(UCLA , FSU and Texas) see Houston 30 , Tulane 24 , UAB ,34 and Army 48

Texas Tech ML -130 (3x)

Have to admit I just dont see TT losing 3 straight. Iowa State has done very liitle this year...2 pt win in OT at home vs Toledo , 6 point win vs UNLV at home and a 1 point win over Northen Iowa at home... The scariest point is this line actually dropped!

Oklahoma State ML -130 (3x )might add to

For me I cant be impressed with A&M's offense and the fact they have one true road game and almsot lost @ KU to the backup QB Barrman. Sure Ok State slept through there 1st H this week against KU but with Meier at QB for KU they still silienced everyone in the 2nd H with 42 points. A&M can be thrown on and while they beat Missouri they lost vs TTech and almost vs Army. I look for Bobby reid's excellent 2nd H play to follow over......

GaTech +7.5 -102 (3x)
Under 47 -105 Clemson and GT (5x)

Think the Jackets luck out again here with Stuckey being OUT just like when they played VaTech without a few key players. GT can stop the run and you have to wonder how effective Clemson can be on offense relying on Proctor and the passing game. thinking Under 47 as Clemson D is very underrated.


Under 48 Northwestern -105 (5x)

Both Mich State and Northwestern have problems on offense. The Wildcats have been season long while just about every key player including Stanton is banged up or OUT. Both defenses are solid here and I would expect a tough competitive game......

Ball State +4 -107 (4x) ML +156(1x)

While I cant say Ball State impresses me I do think this game shouldbe a Pkem. They caught NIU in a great spot playing its 3d staright away game and won by2...not impressive. They won @ Virginia when that team had QB issues that now seemed solved Sewell running the show. They also lost @ Indiana. They have common opponents in NIU and Indiana....WMU also didnt play well @ Ohio U...

Mississippi +17.5 -109 (5x) & 21 -110 (4x) Big move in this game still think -14 was fair.

I think ARK is getting way to much credit for the wins vs Bama and Auburn. For whatever reason Aubrun was flat and unable to stop the run that day. While Ole Miss will struggle versus the run this spread is ridiculous. MISS has played 3 straight solid games IMO against tough defenses and seem improvement each week. ARK looked horrible on offense in teh 2nd H vs Bama and won on a missed XP. Then agaisnt Auburn they had that early long TD pass where the ball would have been picked if the DB didnt fall and tehy never looked back after that. They just dont have enough balance IMO right now to blow a team out.....game should probablybe -13 if that ..........hopefully I am not a sucker here.

Buffalo +17 -110 (2x)

While Buffalo is bad the Ohio U offense can be worse. Avoid turnovers and shortfields and 17 might be a tough number for them to score on there own even against Buffalo.

New Mex State +18.5 -109 (3x) Now +20.5 /+21 will probably add to

Figure Hawaii earned the publics trust but B-to -B trips to the States might be taxing. Oh and NM State gave Boise State a game and should do the same here as they can score just cant stop anyone.

Fresno State +32.5 -101(3x)

As good as LSU is and as well as they smoke inferior teams it seems that in 1 week Fresno went from still somewhat respectable to bottomfeeder. play the over as well here. Even a 45-14 blasting gets the job done...

Over 42 -125 Ten / Bama (5x)

Tenny has shown the ability to score on tougher defenses such as Fla , Cal and Georgia. So why shouldnt I expect at least 30 here?? While on the other hand the Tenny defense is very average allwoing 30+ to AF and Georgia.

UCLA +14.5 -110 (3x)

Guess I look at this like Oregon and Notre Dame are very similiar teams and venues to play it. If anything I might give the nod to the Oregon defense and this line is a FG higher then last weeks meeting which UCLA hopefully grew from.

Under 44 -105 Michigan & Iowa (3x)

The UM defense continues to improve and become of the elite units. Iowa had trouble at home vs Ohio State and this is a tougher task IMO. With as well as they have played the UM offense hasnt really exploded scoring around 24-28 points during this run. With Manningham unlikely to play I again see a 24ish point performance. Think Iowa might hang here though in a 20-13 type game, this has been a historically tight game and UM keeps falling real close to the ATS number.

North Texas +10.5 -107 (3x)

Over 43 -113 Maryland & NCST (5x)

Over 52 -117 Ohio State (3x)

Army +13 -110 (3x)

Under 51 -133 UCLA (2x)



Looking at :
Missouri -14.5 -102
UTEP +6 -102
Und 45.5 -105 UAB
Under 42 Mid Ten
Under 52 Washington
SDST+14(now +13.5)
Over 49 Auburn
South Car -3.5 -103
Northen Ill -34 (now -33-105)
Nevada over 54 -105 (mow 53.5)
Under 39 Oklahoma (now 39.5)
Iowa +12.5
Under 41.5 Duke / Miami
Over 48.5 Nebraska / Texas
Nebraska +5
Purdue +6.5 / Under 56
Over 53 -110 LSU

Team Totals:
Under 19.5 Rutgers -119 )1x)
Under So Miss +11.5 +103 (2x)
Over 10.5 Temple -108 (1x)
Under 28.5 -116 Michigan (1x)
Over 10.5 -108 Miss St (1x)
Under 14.5 -119 Wash U (1x)
Under 11.5 Stanford +100 (1x)
Under 18.5 Arizona -108 (1x)
Under 26.5 -108 OU (1x)
Under 26.5 +114 Clemson (1x)

Good Luck more work to do....

Its Friday !!! What a relief to have just one game to focus on. The Big East clash of WVU @ UConn!!

I will say the last 2 days have been disappointing in baseball but I feel I was on the right track just my decisions ultimately were wrong in weighing the info at hand. Alot of the data now that I have gone back and looked at it was pointing to an UNDER last nite but I think I focused to heavily on the DAYS REST situation. I felt Oliver Perez was going to pitch well last nite along the lines of 3 runs in 6 innings and basically figured that STL would end up with 4 runs...which why I was thinking of playing Under 4.5 STL team. Being I thought the NYM would win they would need 5 runs minimum to win and I had hoped to get Suppan out early. Which is alos why I entertained the NYM over 4.5 team...which worst case would have given me a split and wash on the totals. Willie Randolph looked alot like Torre IMO last nite. Just letting the game play out instead of making things happen...like sending Floyd to PH in the 9th instead of bunting..Floyd could do alot of wrong in that situation like K but worse with a bum achilles ground in a DP. As well as lets face Floyd didnt have a very good season this year so there IMO was no reason for him to PH. You bunt them over and have Reyes up with 2nd and 3rd...much different situation.. As for leaving Perez in to face Pujols....any baseball observer who knows the game well saw Pujols swinging badly and on his front foot since his 1st inning hit 2 days ago. Which tells you he is jumping atthe ball and that a 95MPH heater up in the zone will be tough for him to handle. its a gutsy call in some ways but I feel a true baseball man sees Pujols swings and sees how well Ollie is pitching and its a no-brainer... Also see how LaRussa sac'd with Belliard to make sure he got that run? Naturally the SP is up next but its a must early on to tie the game up... Bottomline is I weighed the INFO incorrectly and got hurt the brightside is after a 10 day run where I was apprx +150 UNITS I had to eventually give some back. Now lets go forward.

College Football this week...
Weekday Games(played):
Florida Atlantic +8 -101 (2x) +9 -101(1x) Over 19.5 team FAU +103(1x)
Even with the possibility of there top 4 WR's being out I think the Home squad barks here. The WR issue isnt something new and the offense has shown life since switching QB's. ULL is off a huge upset @ Houston and probably laying a bit to much here IMO...

Result : ULL wins 6-0 buts its an FAU ATS win!!! (+2.00)

Under 51 -105 Central Michigan (3x)(now 50 -105)
Under 25 -107 2nd H (1x)
Basically CMU can stop the run but struggles vs the pass. Getsy and Ryan had big yardage games vs them but there running backs did very little to contribute. With BG bulock is a huge part of there offense and if he doesnt get going I envision a low scoring like they had @ Ohio..dont think the hold CMUto 9 points but CMU is not an explosive offense either. They did score alot @ Toledo and Kentucky but they had 2 Pick 6's @ Toledo and versuis Kentucky the fell behind 28-7 early and just thro all dayto catch up. Both played EMU and went UNDER with totals in the high 40's. Expecting something near 24-20..thought this line should have been about 5.5 or 6 so no play...

Result : CMU wins 31-14 and 2nd H is 14-0 (+4.00)

Under 41 -110 Utah & NM (3x) (now under 41 -116)
Under 21.5 -116 2nd H (2x) (24-10 Utah H)
New Mexico _6 -104 (2x)
Do I dare say 2 incompetent offenses with solid defenses? The Utes avg slightily above 300 yards which was aided by games vs SDST and UTAH ST. While NM doesnt average 300 yards per contest!! Bothg of these teams largely benefit from short fields and defensive scores. Last year in Utah when NM pulled off the upset there were 2 defensive scores and 4 TD passes of about 50 yards...gone are Mckarney and Hank Baskett and Utah is without Johnson. Last week NM managed 280 yards but got 39 points!!!!!!!!!! The key here is simply playing good defense but not committing costly turnovers or having defensive scores...if we avoid that this could be 17-13. NM's defense has already been tested ta home by Missouri and UTEP. Would not lay points with Utah on the road so NM makes more sense IMO but will pass...
The only thing I have entertained in the Virginia game is the UNDER UNC 17.5 -114. For the most part they held the Terps O in check keeping them scoreless in the 1st H. Ultimately they had 4 TDS but one was a defensive score and the other a 56 yard run by Lattimore... UNC has not shown bug play ability and they have struggled versus the run and with Sewell being a dual option QB he could present problems. His YPA were over 11 week which is a huge improvement for him. Its hard to predict what UNC team shows up..they really didnt play all that badly vs VaTech , Rutgers and Miami but were poor vs Clemson and USF...outside of Furman the USF game was the only time they topped 16 points.

Result: NM wins 34-31 and 2nd H is NM 24-7(-3.52)

UNC buy +7.5 -120 (2x)
UNC 2nd +3 -105 2nd H (1x)

Just looking at UNC season outside of 2 games Clemson and USF they didnt play all that poorly. Miami's offense didnt do much on them , some costly turnovers vs RU and VaTech killed them. They were like +16 to +20 @ Clemson and Miami places much toughre then UVA. On ething Ilearned is that as improved as UVA is they still dont know how to win and letting that game get away vs Maryland maybe has a hangover efefct they need to ware off after awhile of play. just dont see much offense thinking 20-16 or so..

Result: UVA wins 23-0 and 2ndh 14-0. (-3.45)

Team Totals
Under 24.5 -127 Utah (2x)Lost (-2.54)
Under 17.5 -119 UNC (2x)WON (+2.00)

Friday: WVU @ UConn

Looking at a few things here:
-WVU -12.5 -113 1st Half & possibly the over 24.5 1st Half.
-Under 14.5 -127 UConn team and Over 36.5 +100 WVU team.

FF to today:
- WVU is now -13.5 +101 1st H & Over 24.5 -107
- Under now 12.5 +115 and over 35.5 -111 for WVU.


At first glance you find it hard to believe that WV will have any trouble disposing of Uconn. The Huskies played dual QB threats vs Navy and @ USF Losing 38-16 and 41-17. So its clear the defense has trouble versus these type offenses. What is somewhat scary is that WVU has some time off but its next game is 11/2 vs Louisville...so look ahead is DEFINETLY a concern.

I think most would agree that WVU hasnt exactly been tested competition wise to date. I see there 2 toughest tests being the road games @ Miss State and @ ECU. I dont exactlt see them dominanting those games. They need to 2 TDS in the final 3 minutes to cover vs Miss St including a punt return with 1 minute left. Miss State had 3 drives of 65+ yds , they missed a long FG and threw INTs from the WVU 7 and 27 yd lines...alot of missed opportunities when it was still a 21-7 game. So my main point is two fold. The WVU offense has somewhat struggled on the road but the DEFENSE while posting great opponent ppg numbers can have the ball moved on them.

Now ECU only scored 10 points BUT had 5 drives of 54 + yards and 6 of 34+ in 10 drives. Again they shot themselves in the foot. Whne a 17-7 game they fumbled inside WVU 10 yard line then late down 27-10 they turned it over on downs on the WVU 12 and ended teh game stuck on WVU 4! Again a ton of points left off the board. As well as alot of WVU points coming on short fields which they are deadly on...

I believe WVU allows apprx 43 % conversions on 3rd down this year. I tend to feel that despite a very average showing vs Army the offense has improved under Bonislawski. My evidence is not just the poinst they have scored 21,17 and 16 but the fact they have scored in the 1st and 2nd Q's...10,9 and 14 in the 1st H past 3 games. What has killed them to an extent is the kicking game as Nuzio has lost his job and they are 3 of 9 on FGs and missed a XP or two. missing FGs after moving the ball totally kill momentum and tend to take the wind out of the team and offense. Not to mention when you are a far from a good offense you just cant move the ball at will so drives that end up with zeroes hurt. they missed 3 FG's vs Army and two very makeable ones as soon as Army cut it to 14-7 the offense drove 80 yards for a score. They had the 98 yd TD run and get a fumble on the ensuing kickoff but a miss a 42yarder... , they had teh ball 2nd and 3 on the Army 19 but commit a 15 yd penalty and get knocked back to the 34 and yo guessed it missed a 52yder , early 3rd Q get an INT drive it to the 7 and miss a 25 yd fg!

The key for this game is what it usually is TURNOVERS and timing off the turnovers. It appears that part of Uconns plan is to do its best to keep the ball out of WVU hands. The best defense is offense type game plan. Does the fact that UCONN rallied after kicking 5 players off the team lead to something?? I think Uconn lets Nuzie kick which is the better choice no matter what struggles he has had. The Huskies will be w/o DE Cody Brown . Uconn will be more of a test on the ground then Miss State or ECU IMO....not that there great but Caulley is better IMO then what the others offered.

So in conclusion with Louisville on deck and UConn having homecoming tonite this isnt an ideal spot for WVU. Some will point to last years meeting BUT Bonislawski was not the QB and suprisingly the line ws only -15.5. It was 3rd stringer dan Brown who I believed started. Lets remember that UConn last year beat USF at home 15-10 and lost 30-20 to Louisville with Cantwell @ QB. This is a TON of points to be giving to a team especially under the circumstances...

It comes down to can UConn score 17 points here if they can you need WVU to put up 42 and looking at there 1st 2 road games that has been easy. Looking at last years meeting UConn did zero on offense so clearly that must changebut most of what WVU did on offense was in response to the Huskie offense ineptness.

The first TD came via short punt when UConn was somewhat backed up that was also returned for about 15yds...starting field position the Uconn 39 and WVU scored. After a Huskie FG to make it 7-3 Nuzie kicked the ball out of bounds starting them at the WVU 35. They glided through the Huskie defense and scored so 14-3. The 3rd TD was again a somewhat backed up PUNTER and s short kick to start atthe UConn 35. Again a few plays later its 21-3. Next possession down 21-3 Brockington takes the handoff and fumbles...WVU has the ball at the UConn 2o! Another short field and a relative quick score again 28-3. They have started INSIDE the Huskie 35 on 3 occassions already. Next possession Brown is picked at midfield and its taken down to Huskie 14!! So again another possession deep inside Huskie territory. White scores to make it 35-3 thanks to another short field!! After that they managed a FG and TD late thanks to a 50 yd reception. So the Huskies basically just handed them this game thanks to turnovers which Bonislawski has jsut 1 INT in 3 games and thanks to poor punting which Pavarsis seems to be doing better at statistically.

Tonite:
Connecticut +24 -105 (6x)
Over 12.5 -127 UConn (2x)
UConn 1st H +13.5 -111(1x)
Under 49.5 -110 (1x) missed 50.5!

Teaser (2x)
Over 42.5 / Uconn +29

Working on Saturdays NCAAF card as well as the NFL. Which I start a new thraed for both elaborating on my earlier thoughts. GL all . There has to be alot of disagreeing with this one but I just dont see why this line is above 20...

Thursday Baseball Game 7 NCLS

I have been looking at this game up and down for awhile now. First still aggravated I didnt get to see the total go to 8.5 last nite that UNDER ws money in the bank at that number. Thats life though a missed opportunity.

Lets look at Suppan first. He pitched one of the best games of the postseason following his poor SD performance. The key there I think was the fact that NY lost to STL in Game 2 at home when they could have took some pressure off themselves heading into STL. They had to hop on a plane after watching Wagner blow the game. Next thing they know Traschel is flat and its 5-0 in the bottom of the 2nd inning which wound up as the final. I just think a veteran SP like Suppan threw strikes and with no momentum the Mets were kind of dead and flat. He does have a good track record vs the Mets but those starts have been so spread out and has just one @ Shea in the past 5 years. Suppans worse splits come at nite with a 4.62 ERA and 1.50 WHIp as well as on the road. He was clearly a different SP in the 2nd H with a 2.39 ERA in 42 2/3 inning saway in the 2nd H he allowed 13 runs but only 9 earned(1.90 ERA). That led to a 5-2 Under record in those 7 starts.

Now through the NY lineup he has really only held Shawn Green in check @ 3/24. Delgado is just 6/29 but 10BBs give him a .410 OBP(possibly alot of pitching around him). Beltran is 2/11 and Valentin 12/48 while the rest are 14/40. So my key STAT here is Suppan PITCHING on 5 DAYS REST. This year on 5 days rest his ERA was 4.72 but on extended rest (more then 5 days) it was 3.15. Now his start @ Busch versus NY was on like 7 days rest so maybe something to this. Last season it was 3.11 on 5 days and 3.95 on extended. In 2004 it was 4.30 on 5 days and 3.59 on extended. In 2003 it was 4.93 on 5 days and 3.84 extended. Naturally these are regular season stats and not postseason. My point is it appears that over time he has shown to not be sharp when pitching on what we know as regular rest.

Now Oliver Perez sort of had a similiar situation in Game 4. He was staked a big lead and actually just throw strikes which led to only 1 walk but he did allow 9 hits in 5 + innings(also 3 hrs). Perez is on short rest. Only in 2005 and 2004 had he started on short rest. In 2005 in 2 starts he had a 11.74 ERA in 7 2/3 Inn allowing 10 hits 11er /10 r. in 2004 he made one such start going 5 innings allowing 6 hits and 3earned. So I looked to see how he was on 5 days as compared to extended. Well the starts on 5 days were not flattering . This year on 5 days his ERA was 9.00 and 5.01 on extended. In 2005 it was 5.84 on 5 and 4.70 on extended and its a career long trend...( 2004 3.07 on 5 days and 2.87 on extended , in 2003 5.46 ERA and 5.12 on extended.

Perez has solid numbers vs STL in his career but through the lineup it seems the Cards have decent BAA versus him. He has made 5career starts in his home park vs STL:

7inn 2er
6 2/3 inn 3er
6 Inn 3er
7 Inn 3er
7 inn 2er

To end the regular season STL had lost 9 straight road games in which a LHP started. They finished dropping 14 of the last 17 away games in this situation after starting 6-4 vs LHP. In the postseason on the road they faced Wells and Glavine. Losing 2-0 @ Glavine and winning 2-0 @ Wells. In those 9 losses to conclude the season each time they allowed the opponent to score at least 4 times and 6 of the 9 were UNDERS. Previously the Over was 12-6 when a LHP started and in the postseason its 2-0 Under.

So it seems that I like the over 9 -111 and NYM -119. I just dont know how I am playing this but it wont be all that heavily I dont think at these numbers. The total has value cause mostly we see 9.5 for these teams and SP's. Now we know that Perez will have a short leash BUT what does that mean? As soon as he gives up 2 runs with MOB he is gone? Going to be a situation where the pen again is entrusted in abig situation when and if they pull Oliver early.




Here we go: GOOD LUCK
NYM -119 (6x) & -125 (1x)
Over 9 -103 (4x)
Over 4.5 -111 NYM team (1x)

Slight change in gameplan. The more I look at it the more attractive NY becomes. As I mentioned 3-14 L17 away for STL , 1-12 L13 versus teams with 90 wins. Just one late inning winning @ Shea this year , 37-49 away , well below .500 @ Nite , facing a crazy packed house at Shea against a team that has battled without 2 SP's. having a guy who has 5 or 6 career quality home starts versus the opponent......and the nYM best home record in the NL.

Also be patient on this total. I might just go with team totals here play the STL under and NYM over. I really dont like StL lineup now that I saw it. Encarnacion batting 4th? Taguchi is swinging a good stick and should be playing for him IMO with WIlson in RF. Eck and Rolen banged up to boot. Edmonds at 156 off LHP really takes alot of the life out this StL Lineup. Wilson 1/11 against Oliver. One last note please dont DOUBT Oliver Perez . I have watched him pitch and wathced his post game comments...the kid has confidence and great stuff....its always been about command though....

Guess I am just plain stupid for this over play.....over swing after over swing...sorry

Wednesday Thoughts

First I would like to thank all the posters at Cappingthegame.com for there support and compliments. Please feel free to stop and drop me a note or comment here.

StLouis Cardinals -115 (6x) Will add 2x more see -113 now and play Ov 4.5 runs team +113 STL but trying for 4 runs(2x).

When looking at the game 1 matchup I figured that Carpenter facing Maine in Shea was probably worth around -125 maybe -130. So with this price opening around -130 where I feel it should have been and bet down a few cents into what I see as a clearly cheap price. In my opinion a MUST WIN situation doesnt deserve a premium in the price. Its only a motivational angle for a team. The world understand the Mets are backed against a wall but how does that change the game on the field? Does it make a 3-2 splitter easier to hit? It probably does just as much good as bad and you dont how the players respond till the first pitch is thrown.

Which lets take out the SP for a second. The STL Cardinals have a huge edge in playoff experience with there recent success in previous years. NY's best player Delgado has had a great series but has never been in this position before. Truthfully outside of Beltran , Delgado and Valentin recently the NY lineup isnt really producing. Only 3 Mets have Hred led by Carlos and Carlos with 3 each. StL has 7 guys who have Hred including SP Jeff Suppan!! So alot more balanced production from there lineup. LaRussa in my HUMBLE OPINION would be wise to sit Encarnacion tonite and Chose from Met Killer Preston Wilson or Spezio. I am assuming Duncan gets the start in LF tonite. Pujols last 2 games looks better and power hitters are streak orientated..he got one last nite and wouldnt be suprised to see another tonite. So as a team the cards have all the momentum after last nites win and they have the experience factor coupled with a balanced lineup....oh yeah they have Carpenter on the hill. probably even a more rested pen.

Go ahead and knock him for his Game 1 outing . Remember though he wasted a ton of effort battling through his so-so outing vs SD in Game 4 of the ALDS. So a flat performance wasnt all that suprising especially when you take into account how hard he was pushed down the stretch when the Cards were in a tailspin. Maine is a youngster and lets be honest he has medicore stuff which seems even worse in his 2 playoff spots. His fastball seems to barely be touching 90 MPH. he was very hittable in the LAD series and was very wild in the second game of this series. Both times he managed to get away without much damage. Tonite if he puts himself in the same position I dont think he wiggles out. StL was so close to blowing that game wide open yesterday stranding 20 baserunners including a bases loaded 5th inng no out situation where they failed to score. Watching Hernandez and Mota throw I am not that impressed right now. Mota's splitter seems flat and Hernadez seems to be throwing to many splits. STL has to have gained a ton of confidence in beating the Mets ace in Glavine after earlier beating there All Star closer Billy Wagner. For whatever reason it seems throughout the playoffs teams just hit better in the back end of consecutive games.

The way I see it STL has all the edges outside of home field here. How ridiculous is that Glavine was -130/-135 in STL lastnite and Carpenter cant get that same respect versus a worse SP in Maine. Like the over but might not play it was thinking about theteam over for STL but wanted 4 not 4.5...Maine has gone over last 5 of 6 at home...getting solid run support as well as allwoing at least 4 runsin those starts. IMO 8 with the juice on teh over is the fair price here....so I might still bite. Last point is like my YANKEES the Mets seem dependent on one of there worst SP in there biggest game. It always seems like we have Wright or Brown or along that line pitching our elimination games...is John Maine the guy you want pitching your biggest game of 2006 and in the past 6 years?

Good Luck.

Played the NCAAF game its in the other thread..

Tuesday Game 5 NCLS

Tonite in STL:

We have Tom Glavine opposing Jeff Weaver

Last time out I rode the NY Mets as I expected a bounce back effort from there offense. Tonite I think all of that momentum they had built during a nice 12-5 win was squashed by the RAIN OUT.Now the first thing I know is this LINE is FAT. How can Glavine be -170 at home where he is terrific to -135 @ STL. This isnt some medicore team that has no home field bias....its the St.Louis Cardinals!! Easy answer is simply NY pounded them last game and they can get away with it as they expect money on NY here. Know your lines...


What the average fan misses here is that Glavine just faced them 5 days ago. Glavine does NOT have great stuff he is location guy who has to 'trick' opposing hitters. Its tough to do that to the same lineup twice in a week IMO. It can be done but its not easy. I think Pujols saying his stuff wasnt very good the first time out was telling IMO. How many times has Pujols talked shit or called someone out to your knowledge?? Not often if your asking me, so I really think Glavine did get somewhat lucky 1st time out and Pujols and the gang will be approaching him differently tonite. Remember I am the guy who has been preaching about the Cardinals struggles against LHP. Well that has to be neutralized when suddenly everyday you are facing a LHP...Game 1 they faced Glavine , Game 3 Darren Oliver pitched 6 innings of relief and then Game 4 they see Oliver Perez..alot of pratice so to speak.... and you saw some better swinsg versus Perez.


What really interests me in this game is the total....The Over 9 -109 (now) to be specific. Why??

Well first Tom Glavine has pitched decent in his last 2 starts @ Busch(both old and new). Just not quite as good as the home starts( Home 0 runs in 14 but away 7 runs in 13.1). Glavine on the road this year had a 4.72 ERA and in 17 starts(NYM was 12-5) he lasted 101 innings. That is a shade under 6 innings on average. With a 1.43 WHIP you know baserunners were plentiful. He allowed 14 Hrs and had a 38-57 walk to K ratio. So he basic road start was 6 innings and 3.18 runs allowed..Also note on the road he received 6 runs of support.

Which if you go start to start from April has been FEAST or famine in support of him:

2 ,1 , 13 , 8 , 7 , 9 , 9 , 6 , 2, , 2 , 4 , 10 , 1 , 0 , 8 , 7 , 13.

Lets examine this:

2- against Matt Cain
1- against John Thomson both April starts
2- against Schilling
2- against Zambrano
4- against Arroyo
1- against Traber( only justification is he is LH & after the Nady deal)
0- against Leiber

So thats 10 of 17 starts with at least 6 runs of support and as you can see it was usually 7 or much more. So they hit when Glavine pitches against medicore SP's...Not suprisingly the OVER is 10-7 on the road in Glavines starts. I think last post I explained how well this teams hit RHP on the road and it showed on Sunday. As well as knowing NY can hit that STL pen which had been pitching over its head recently IMO.


Now Weaver from some reason has been awful at home in both stops(LAA & STL). Since the beginning of Sept he has been a much better SP then though. Still he just seems to be a 6 inning guy at best though.

As a Cardinal his starts read (starting with most recent)

5 2/3 Inn 3 runs
5 Inn 5 runs
7 Inn 1run
6 1/3 Inn 5 runs
7 1/3 Inn 1 run
3 1/3 inn 7 runs
4 inn 6 runs

So quite the improvement from his 1st 2 Cards home starts. He also faced NY 5 days ago and did an impressive job of keeping them in check. Although he has better velocity than Glavine he doesnt have overwhelming stuff either. The Over is 5-2 for Weaver at home with both unders being totals above 9 and the rest all 9's or lower. Weaver gets 5.57 runs of support at home.


His pattern of support:

3 , 8 , 2 , 10 , 0 , 6 , 10

Now the 2 and 0 were also strangely his best pitching performances. So does that mean his run support depends on how well he is pitching?? Probably not just an interesting trend...but I wouldnt expect 2 strong starts in a row vs this Mets lineup..

Now the UMP is Jeff Kellogg. I have to say I cant recall a home plate UMP who sees an average of 316 pitches per game....thats alot of pitches...usually leading SP to tire quicker , exit sooner and batters get deeper counts to hit in. So I would say this benefits the hitters. Some might question his O/U record or 9.84 runs per game I dont weight that heavily. I do know he has called 32 games with a AVG total set of 8.94 when he umps. So his 9.84 average does exceed the avg total of a game he calls. Also interesting is Kellogg has called 4 Glavine starts. All a long , long time ago in 2001 and 1999. However it wa interesting that Glavine lost all 4 and while I dont have the boxscores I assume didnt pitch all that well........Lost 8-1 , Lost 6-1 , Lost 5-2 and Lost 9-0 with ATL. I mention this cause Glavine is clearly a SP who depends heavily on the UMP to expand the zone....a tight zone which 316 pitches per game indicates to me is trouble for him.


So I expect a high scoring affair here and will make the Over my bigger play. However I think there is a TON of value on STL tonite and will also be playing that and peak at the ARL. Going to sit and think about how big I want these plays to be...(along the lines of a 7x & 4x ).

Plays
Over 9 -105 (8x)
STL +128 (5x)
Over 5 +105 1st 5 innings (1x)
Prop
Glavine Over 3 runs allowed +103 (1x)

GL

Monday Nite Football

Extremely disappointed in my performance yesterday. Yes, I had some bad luck were a couple games could have turned out differently but really that doesnt change they were the wrong plays / sides. Clearly the Seahwaks and Dolphins are what I am referring to and the more info I gather it just seems ridiculous these teams lost ATS. Anyway I am moving on...yesterday is yesterday WIN or LOSE!


THEE Chicago Bears travel to face the Arizona Cardinals

Things to know:

1) Arizona will be christening it new stadium with its first MNF game. So nice motivational edge for the home squad.

2) They have to decide open roof with the possibilty of rain Or closed roof and force the Bears to play in Dome..interesting angle IMO. You could add weather as a factor if its open roof and the ground is wet and you could force an outdoor team to play in a DOME for what I would expect to a loud and rowdy MNF crowd.

3)Matt Leinart played @ CHI in the preseason. Now how do we weigh this if it all. I think it helps him. He entered the game with 5:23 to play in the 2nd Q and was responsible for 16 of the 23 points they scored. While its preseason generally the 3rd preseason game sees the starters go longer. SO while its an assumption I would think that he faced the CHI starting defense for his time in the 2nd Q and probably some of the 3rdQ(ARI scored 10 points in that time). Note that Edge only played early 1st quarter so he wasnt involved.

Read this:

He took over for Kurt Warner in the second quarter and completed 15-of-21 passes for 144 yards and a touchdown."I feel comfortable with the offense for the most part right now," Leinart said. "So they called a lot of stuff, and I just went out there and tried to execute."He entered the game with 5:13 left in the second quarter and completed 12 consecutive passes at one point, while leading the Cardinals (2-1) to a field goal at the end of the first half and a touchdown early in the third quarter.

Leinart completed all six passes on his second possession as the Cardinals drove 54 yards in the final minute of the half, Neil Rackers' field goal extending their lead to 10-6.

After Antrel Rolle intercepted Rex Grossman on the opening possession of the third quarter, Leinart went 4-for-4 as the Cardinals drove 42 yards against the Bears' first-string defense for a touchdown that made it 17-6.

From Denny Green:

Matt had a lot of poise going in there," Green said. "When they gave him time, he stood in there and delivered. When they were all chasing our guys, he stood in there and scrambled for yardage at some key times. He had a good, solid performance."

How do you weigh this??

There is no real way but you have to think playing in Chicago and getting it done even in preseason helps a QB's confidence. You can say he will get pressured but Green said he was able to scramble when the OL broke down...very encouraging IMO.

4) Arizona is second in the NFL in forcing OPPOSING RB's into 10 Fumbles this year...mix in the possibility of a slick ball here .

Lets look at ARIZONA:

Game1: Host SF opened at -7 close at -8.5 /-9. Win 34-27

Points of emphasis:

It appears to me 1st quarter defense is an issue with Zona. Basically they allowed 2 long 1st Q drives (the last carried into the 2ndQ) culminating in SF TDs. After that SF ran 44 plays for 193 yards(4.39 per play ). Actually down 10 against a prevent defense they ran 10 plays for 69 yards..so there was a span from there last TD score till the end of the game where they ran 34 plays an only gained 124 yards (3.65 per play).

Arizona said they were fooled by SF misdirection plays which CHI can use as well tonite. Zona was sloppy with 11 penalties and SF short fields for 10 2nd H points..they did manage to hold SF to 0 for 9 on third down...Gore was really the star with 87 rushing yards and 83 receiving yards...only knock was Gore had 16 c 87 yds but a 32 yard run was most of it.

Game 2 : @ Seattle line was -7 and lost 21-10.

Why I opened the last recap with 1st Q defense issues was because they again allowed 2 1st Q TDS then settled down. In some ways the game wasnt as close as 21-10 but in other ways a couple of breaks might have made it so. Zona missed two long FGS earlier and Sea did lead 21-3 at one point. They did a nice job of containg Alexander 26 c 89 yards. After SEA 1st 2 TDS score they had 9 possesions and only moved the ball on 2 occassions a missed FG drive and late TD drive. Those drives went for 11 plays each and 51 and 80 yards respectably(very solid). The other 7 lasted 27 plays and amassed 41 YARDS!! I didnt count last possession of the 1st H and game as Seattle was just running the clock. So 49 plays for 172 yards isnt very solid....After cutting it 21-10 ARI had the ball inside the SEA 30 but they fumbled with about 9 minutes remaining(could have been a 1 possession game). They again committed 11 penalities and SEA was 6 of 13 on 3rd down.

Game 3 : Host STL laying -5 lose 16-14.

This game they played GOOD 1st defense shutting down and followed that with a strong 4th Q. However bewteen it didnt appear STL had much trouble moving the ball ( 24 plays 182 yds in 2ndQ and 21 plays 142 ayrds in 3rd Q).After grabbing an early 7-0 lead, they got the ball up 7-3 and drove down the field 71 yards but on 3rd and 2 from the STL 13 Warner was picked..so 10 or 14-3 is out the window. STL then takes the ball and Bulger hooks up with Holt a few times and score a TD for a STL 10-7 lead.

Next possesion on the 1st pass Warner is again picked and that leads to an STL FG before half for a 13-7 lead STL...game changed in a blink...STL gets the ball to start the 2nd H and drives all the way downfield but settles for 3 points. ARI drives 81 yards on the ensuing kickoff now down 16-7 and Warner for the 3rd staright possession is PICKED OFF! they were 1st goal at the 2 and James was stoped twice..on 3rd and goal from the 1 another INT!!

Just look at how bad those INTS were...they lead to a STL FG and TD plus took at least 6 points , probably 10 poinst and maybe even 14 ARI points off the board. This time STL again moves the ball but ultimately fumbles and both exchanges punts to close out the 3rd and start the 4th Q. About 12 minutes left ARI drives the length of field and scores a TD making it 16-14. With slightily more then 4 minutes left STL gets the ball back ad attempts to run clock except they FUMBLE again. Now with about 2 minutes to play ARI starts at STL 30 already in game winning FG range.....Inside the red zone with about 1:46 toplay Warner strikes again fumbling.......GAME OVER....clearly ZONA SHOULD HAVE WON!

STL was 6-12 on 3rd down but Jackson had just 62 yards on 24 c. WHich is encouraging since we know CHI's game plan is running the ball and it appears ARI can stop the run.

Week 4 @ ATL catch 7 or so and lose 32-10.The good news was they held ATL to 4 of 14 on 3rd down and had just 4 penalties. The bad news Warner struck again with 4 turnovers(actually2). This game was 12-10 at half and 15-10 midway through the 3rd Quarter. Now the Zona defense allowed 9 points on 3 FGS but it was mainly due to starting field position. Ther 1st 2 drives started at the Zona 23 and 49..so only 6 points is solid and the 3rd FG wasa 50 yarder..To start the 2nd Q ATL drove downfield and was picked right before the End zone and Adrian Wilson went 99 yards for a TD the other way briefly taking the lead. To start the 3rd Q ATL again moved downfield but settled for a FG. Now 15-10 ARI gets the ball back and a few plays into the possession Warner is you guessed PICKED. ATL gets a PICK 6 and scores ...22-10 game. Now 22-10 ARI gets the ball back drives to inside the ATL 30 chews up over 6 minutes and enter the 4th Q. Warner FUMBLES on the ATL 22....next play Norwood takes the handoff and goes 78 yards! 29-10... Still early 4th Q and Warner is out but Leinart fumbles leading to a FG....32-10.....I believe Leinart moved them inside the ATL 30 and was picked on a tipped pass but it really didnt matter as you can see how ARI once agained HANDED OVER a win and at worst an ATS COVER.

They did allow a ton of yards but alot of that was to vick scrambling (101 yards I think) and alot of it Norwood on the 78 yard run. Dunn had 19c for 55yds. Cleary Grossman isnt the scrambling threat Vick is.

Week 5 : Host KC as 3.5 pt dogs and lose late 23-20.

Hard defeat as they led early 14-0. So for the most part they erased there 1st Q defensive struggles after game 2. They held KC to 5 for 14 on 3rd down but manged just 3 for 14 themselves. Impressive was the 16c for 36 yards that LJ had. Although late game his 78 yd run on a screen pass is what put them in FG range for the game winner. Rackers missed a 51 yarder to tie with2 tix left..showing great poise by the youngster.

KC didnt exactly move the ball on offense vs Zona. They used a block punt inside Zonas 10 yd to score there first TD which went a whole 6 yards. Leinart threw a pick in the 4th Q but KC didnt move the ball and settled for a FG. Also in the 1st Q backed up Zona punted and give KC good field position (mid field) which led to ther first FG. So of 23 points they aided them in 13 of them and the last 3 were aided by a LJ rumble on a screen pass...It just seems up 17-3 they never put the nail in the coffin...

So is Arizona your typical 1-4 team? I think clearly not. There defensive seems solid and solid against the run imparticular. What has killed them is volume of turnovers and timing of those turnovers...it seemed almost everyone was deep in the opposition territory.We know Zona has struggled running the ball but Leinart at QB gives them so many more options then Warner who had lead feet like Bledsoe.

CHI did allow 97 yds on 23 c to Moore and Taylor in Minny and Green cracke a 100 in GB although half of those yards came with a big defecit. With all ARI run issues they still have EDGE who can break loose at any moment and CHI is just NOT a shutdown run defense on the road IMO..there good but not great.

Lets also remember that CHI scored just 1 TD on offense and that was to win the game after Minny fumbled and was onlya 37 yard drive. Grossman as I should still will FORCE a pass if pressured IMO. Now you can say CHI shutout GB and didnt allow an offensive score versus Minny but ARI is clearly a much better offense then either even w/o the services of Larry Fitzgerald. I think ARI can score 16 or 17 points here. The key is can they NOT shoot themselves in the foot and with Leinart who has played in big game after big game already @ USC...I would think at worst it wont be disasterous like it was with Warner at QB. Remember that @ GB they scored on a great 49 YD catch by Berrian against a team who clearly cant defend the deep ball see the Eagle game for reference....and Ahmad Carroll's recent release. They had 4 FGS in bewteen there last TD a Punt Return by Hester.

TJ and benson only managed 32c for 97 yards @ GB another solid run defense. While TJ had just 18c for 54 yards @ Minny with Benson getting no touches. Personally I dont feel a need to recap the Bears home games because the Bears arent HOME and if you dont know how awesome there defense is at home you havent paid attention...They beat Det and Buffalo badly...nothing of interest. You know going those teams wont even break 10 points..Now they slaughtered SEA who was w/o Alexander and Stevans. While still working Branch into the mix. That was somewhat impressive but if you watched what STL did this past weekend thru the air vs SEA it really waters it down IMO. Also remember to look at spreads...CHI only -3.....even if they played again this week highest I see that line is -7. SEA was one dimensonal and againnst CHI that doesnt work. I'll heap praise on CHI and say on a neutral field they are 4 pts better then Sea who is basically 4 points better then ARI on a neutral field...that makes CHI 8 points stronger then ARIZONA....but Cards have home field and yes I would THINK that CHI -5 is a much more accurate line tonite then 12 or 13...

Personally I dont see CHI scoring as much here maybe 20 points...thinking 20-16.So I will post my ARIZONA play soon...but it will big and I see +14 @ BoDog now as well as thinking about UNDER 41......Good Luck...feel free to comment...especially if you disagree.

Plays:
Arizona +14 -115 (8x)
ML +660 (1x)
Under 25.5 CHI team +104 (2x)

Under 41-110 (2x)
Under 20.5 +104 1st H (1x)
Zona 1st H ML +360 (1/2x)

GL

Looking ahead Week 7 NFL and Week 8 NCAAF

Already on:

Buffalo +6 -110
Vikings +7.5 -120
Arizona ML -130(played before MNF started)

Looking at :
KC +5

Just a ridiculous number IMO. KC played like shit but ran into a sleeping giant @ Pitt. I think these teams are basically the same as the 2005 versions and KC won at home as a PK. The key is LJ and the play of the OL here. SD seemed to have trouble slowing the SF offense in the 1st H not sure what changed after halftime. I am not buying into SD as an offensive juggernaut when LT has done little past few games. I know he had 4 TDS last game but there just inside th e10 and handed him the ball against a defense that couldnt slow OAKLAND. Last 4 weeks 21c 71 yds , 13c 36yds , 27c 98yds , 19c 71 yds...not very impressive. KC is a veteran defens that will rebound IMO. Expecting a real low scoring battle here....

Houston +10

Again just ridiculous number. Houston played a good half @ Dallas...only a half but a misleading final. What has Jax done besides the 41-0 game to be 10 pt chalk away? They are 0-2 on the road and I think this number is gigantic. Would Indy even be -10 @ Houston... I'll be on this and see how Jags again battle these defensive injuries. History on the Texans side as well

ATL +1 +102 (now +2.5)

GB +4 -108 (now +4.5) WR woes now

Denver -4.5

Was thinking Denver here since there defense is awesome and the Browns cant stop the run. Just not sure laying -4.5 against an always tough Brown squad is worth it.

Lions +3.5 -104

Played it early then changed my mind when Rogers got suspended since he is there defense. Will revisit later in the week but for now I am off it and washed my play.

Cincy -3 -115

Think there is alot of overreaction with Cincy. Now they lost Levi Jones but he wasnt a 100% anyway IMO. carolina struggles at time defending the run and has escaped with some narrow wins against TB and Balt who played with Boller @ QB. The key is slowing DeShaun Foster and that is why we need to check wha LBers are healthy for Cincy. This is turning into a must win for Cincy...

NCAAF

Already on:

Over 51 Nebraska and Texas-105 (7x) I think this number could get cheaper cause the UT secondary is looking healthier SO I played Under 51.5 -110 to WASH this play and will wait to see if we get below 50...I dont see it going higher then 52 so its worth the gamble on waiting . Today I see 49.5 as a total so I made a wise decision last nite but not sure I like this OVER anymore.

One thing to watch for is the health of the Texas secondary. Right now I assuming that Brown and Griffin wont be a 100%. If that changes Imight need to rethink this. All you have to do is see how Baylor moved the ball on texas to understand there significance. Nebraska's defense couldnt slow Kansas down at home.....400yards passing allowed and 140 on the ground game. Nebraska at home vs some soft opponents 49 ,56,56,39... Last year OU traveled to Nebraska and won 31-24 but once they started just throwing the ball they moved the offense. Last year the cornhuskers didnt have much of a ground game and it has improved this season.

Weekday Games(played):

Florida Atlantic +8 -101 (2x) +9 -101(1x) Over 19.5 team FAU +103(1x)

Even with the possibility of there top 4 WR's being out I think the Home squad barks here. The WR issue isnt something new and the offense has shown life since switching QB's. ULL is off a huge upset @ Houston and probably laying a bit to much here IMO...

Result : ULL wins 6-0 buts its an FAU ATS win!!! (+2.00)

Under 51 -105 Central Michigan (3x)(now 50 -105)

Under 25 -107 2nd H (1x)

Basically CMU can stop the run but struggles vs the pass. Getsy and Ryan had big yardage games vs them but there running backs did very little to contribute. With BG bulock is a huge part of there offense and if he doesnt get going I envision a low scoring like they had @ Ohio..dont think the hold CMUto 9 points but CMU is not an explosive offense either. They did score alot @ Toledo and Kentucky but they had 2 Pick 6's @ Toledo and versuis Kentucky the fell behind 28-7 early and just thro all dayto catch up. Both played EMU and went UNDER with totals in the high 40's. Expecting something near 24-20..thought this line should have been about 5.5 or 6 so no play...

Under 41 -110 Utah & NM (3x) (now under 41 -116)

Under 21.5 -116 2nd H (2x) (24-10 Utah H)

Do I dare say 2 incompetent offenses with solid defenses? The Utes avg slightily above 300 yards which was aided by games vs SDST and UTAH ST. While NM doesnt average 300 yards per contest!! Bothg of these teams largely benefit from short fields and defensive scores. Last year in Utah when NM pulled off the upset there were 2 defensive scores and 4 TD passes of about 50 yards...gone are Mckarney and Hank Baskett and Utah is without Johnson. Last week NM managed 280 yards but got 39 points!!!!!!!!!! The key here is simply playing good defense but not committing costly turnovers or having defensive scores...if we avoid that this could be 17-13. NM's defense has already been tested ta home by Missouri and UTEP. Would not lay points with Utah on the road so NM makes more sense IMO but will pass...

The only thing I have entertained in the Virginia game is the UNDER UNC 17.5 -114. For the most part they held the Terps O in check keeping them scoreless in the 1st H. Ultimately they had 4 TDS but one was a defensive score and the other a 56 yard run by Lattimore... UNC has not shown bug play ability and they have struggled versus the run and with Sewell being a dual option QB he could present problems. His YPA were over 11 week which is a huge improvement for him. Its hard to predict what UNC team shows up..they really didnt play all that badly vs VaTech , Rutgers and Miami but were poor vs Clemson and USF...outside of Furman the USF game was the only time they topped 16 points.

New Mexico +6 -104 (2x)

With Utah struggle on offense cant back them as chalk ina road conference game that I expect to be low scoring.

UNC buy +7.5 -120 (2x)

UNC 2nd +3 -105 2nd H (1x)

Just looking at UNC season outside of 2 games Clemson and USF they didnt play all that poorly. Miami's offense didnt do much on them , some costly turnovers vs RU and VaTech killed them. They were like +16 to +20 @ Clemson and Miami places much toughre then UVA. On ething Ilearned is that as improved as UVA is they still dont know how to win and letting that game get away vs Maryland maybe has a hangover efefct they need to ware off after awhile of play. just dont see much offense thinking 20-16 or so..

Team Totals

Under 24.5 -127 Utah (2x)

Under 17.5 -119 UNC (2x)

Friday:

Looking at a few things here:

-WVU -12.5 -113 1st Half & possibly the over 24.5 1st Half.

-Under 14.5 -127 UConn team and Over 36.5 +100 WVU team.

Really the Huskies have had trouble scoring and needed a 98 yd run and Punt return to score vs Army. WVU has done well getting out to leads and stopping the run as well as rendering it useless. Only once has WVU not scored 40 this year @ East Carolina.. which they really were killed by 3 Ints as they punted just ONCE.

Saturday :

Under 54.5 -105 Syracuse & Louisville(3x)

The Orangeman did a decent job on defense last year in Louisville and and last home game vs Pitt. The Cards offense was abit out of sync and I am not sure they have the running game to exploit Cuse weakness. The cuse offense still seems to struggle versus any above average defenses see Iowa , Pitt and WVU game. The Cards defense has been real solid at hasnt allowed more then 17 points since the opener....

VaTech -13.5 -110 (3x) & -16.5 -120 (3x)

Simply put you know VaTech is coming out hungry here especially in a TV game at nite off 2 losses . The So Miss offense has looked awful on the road and now we know the line jumped cause RB snesation Damion Fletcher underwent surgery and is OUT. They scored 6 @ Tulsa , 7 @ Florida and 19 @ UCF most thanks to game changing momentum turnovers and UCF defense is very inconsistent!!(see Pitt game). I didnt see them breaking 14 points here and might play a team total as well depending. Tulsa and both UCF should have scored in at least in the high 20's and FLA scored 34 so after 2 straight losses you would expect this VaTech squad to break 30(low before BC was 26 vs GT). The line could seem high but look at it like they were -29 to cincy and -8.5 to GaTech....I would think GaTech is alot better and stronger line value wise then So Miss so the initial 5 pt seperation bewteen the games looks LOW and as I said Cincy was -29 ...

Over 47 -105 Baylor and Kansas -105 (5x)

Both offenses playing well recently. Baylor has played decent defense athome but against TCU , Army and Kansas State. Kansas doesnt seem to be able to defend the pass see Nebraska and Ok State(Shawn Bell for Baylor put up 30+ @ Col & @ Tex). The Kansas offense has been a little inconsistent but played some godd games vs Ok St , @ NEb and @ Toledo.....expecting a shootout.

Over 54 -105 Temple (5x)

Just what the doctor ordered for NIU. Wolfe and Horvath should explode especially since Wolfe was shut down by WMU. The Temple offense continuesto improve and NIU defense isnt very special ....42-14 worst case IMO...

Rice & UCF Over 54.5 -105 (3x)

Both teams seem defensively challenged. UCF has a good offense that just appears to self destruct. You would hope they show up this week after taking last week off against pitt. They have serious issues defending the pass. Rice has put up points against all the teams that arent major schools(UCLA , FSU and Texas) see Houston 30 , Tulane 24 , UAB ,34 and Army 48

Texas Tech ML -130 (3x maybe 5x)

Have to admit I just dont see TT losing 3 straight. Iowa State has done very liitle this year...2 pt win in OT at home vs Toledo , 6 point win vs UNLV at home and a 1 point win over Northen Iowa at home...

Oklahoma State ML -130 (3x maybe 5x)

For me I cant be impressed with A&Ms offense ane the fact they have one true road game and almsot lost @ KU to the backup QB Barrman. Sure Ok State slept through there 1st H this week against KU but with Meier at QB for KU they still silienced everyone in the 2nd H with 42 points. A&M can be thrown on and while they beat Missouri they lost vs TTech and almost vs Army. I look for Bobby reid's excellent 2nd H play to follow over......

GaTech +7.5 -102 (3x)

Think the Jackets luck out again here with Stuckey being OUT just like when they played VaTech without a few key players. GT can stop the run and you have to wonder how effective Clemson can be on offense relying on Proctor and the passing game. thinking Under 47 as Clemson D is very underrated.

Under 48 Northwestern -105 (5x)

Both Mich State and Northwestern have problmes on offense. The Wildcats have been season long while just about every key player including Stanton is banged up or OUT. Both defenses are solid here and I would expect a tough competitive game......

Ball State +4 -107 (4x) ML +156(1x)

While I cant say Ball State impresses me I do think this game shouldbe a Pkem. They caught NIU in a great spot playing its 3d staright away game and won by2...not impressive. They won @ Virginia when that team had QB issues that now seemed solved Sewell running the show. They also lost @ Indiana. They have common opponents in NIU and Indiana....WMU also didnt play well @ Ohio U...

Mississippi +17.5 -109 (5x) & 21 -110 (4x) Big move in this game still think -14 was fair.

I think ARK is getting way to much credit for the wins vs Bama and Auburn. For whatever reason Aubrun was flat and unable to stop the run that day. While Ole Miss will struggle versus the run this spread is ridiculous. MISS has played 3 straight solid games IMO against tough defenses and seem improvement each week. ARK looked horrible on offense in teh 2nd H vs Bama and won on a missed XP. Then agaisnt Auburn they had that early long TD pass where the ball would have been picked if the DB didnt fall and tehy never looked back after that. They just dont have enough balance IMO right now to blow a team out.....game should probablybe -13 if that

Buffalo +17 -110 (2x)now +18

While Buffalo is bad the Ohio U offense can be worse. Avoid turnovers and shortfields and 17 might be a tough number for them to score on there own even against Buffalo.

New Mex State +18.5 -109 (3x) Now +20.5

Figure Hawaii earned the publics trust but B-to -B trips to the States might be taxing. Oh and NM State gave Boise State a game and should do the same here as they can score just cant stop anyone.

Fresno State +32.5 -101(3x)

As good as LSU is and as well as they smoke inferior teams it seems that in 1 week Fresno went from still somewhat respectable to bottomfeeder. play the over as well here. Even a 45-14 blasting gets the jobe done...

Over 42 -125 Ten / Bama (5x)

Tenny has shown the ability to score on tougher defenses such as Fla , Cal and Georgia. So why shouldnt I expect at least 30 here?? While on the other hand the Tenny defense is very average allwoing 30+ to AF and Georgia.

Under 47 -105 GaTech and Clemson (3x)

Two very solid ACC defenses here. Clemson without Stuckey

UCLA +14.5 -110 (3x)

Guess I look at this like Oregon and Notre Dame are very similiar teams and venues to play it. If anything I might give the nod to the Oregon defense and this line is a FG higher then last weeks meeting which UCLA hopefully grew from.

Under 44 Michigan & Iowa (3x)

The UM defense continues to improve and become of the elite units. Iowa had trouble at home vs Ohio State and this is atoughertask IMO. With as well as tehy have played the UM offense hasnt really exploded scoring around 24-28 points during this run. With Manningham unlikely to play I again see a 24ish point performance. Think Iowa might hang here though in a 20-13 type game, this has been a historically tight game and UM keeps falling real close to the ATS number.

Looking at :
Missouri -14.5 -102
UTEP +6 -102
Und 45.5 -105 UAB
Under 42 Mid Ten
Under 52 Washington
North Texas +10.5 (PLAYED 3X)
SDST+14(now +13.5)
Over 41.5 Virginia(now 42) gonna pass though
Louisville -17 (now -16.5)
Over 42.5 Maryland (PLAYED @ 43-113 5X)
Tulane +32 / Over 49
South Car -3 (now --4 +100)
Northen Ill -34 (now -33-105)
Wyoming -4
Nevada over 54 -105 (mow 53.5)
Arizona +2.5
Over 59 -111 Ok St & A&M (passing on)
Under 39 Oklahoma (now 39.5)
Over 52.5 Oregon (now 52 -105)

Still looking at this Schedule! GL

Just looking over my past week in baseball and didnt realize how well I have done. Not much for tracking records just to many plays to keep up with:

MLB:
Sat 3-1 +8.
Fri 7-0 +19.32
Thurs 0-1 -3.00
Wed 2-2 -1.26
Tues 2-0 +13.66
Mon xxx
Sun 3-0 +12.00
Thats 17-4 +48.72 since Sunday.

Prior to that Sat 3-4 -2.00 & Parlay -2.
Fri 8-0 +27.00

Not so bad in MLB 28-8 +71.72 in about 8 days! And back to back perfect Fridays!

This week in CFB +20.80 , last week +3
This past MNF +19.89 and Sunday was +14.90

So basically since last Friday 10/6

NFL +34.79 won my 2 huge plays on Carolina and Denver
NCAAF +23.90 won my huge play on Auburn today
MLB +72.72(28-8ATS)

Thats a whopping +131.41 units give or take some.....Thats insane!

Slow start in the NFL so far today....Okay enough chest thumping and patting myself on the back.

Todays Game:

Oliver Perez @ Anthony Reyes

I have to think that the dropoff value wise is fairly significant from Suppan to Reyes especially seing what Suppan has done at home. While there is a dropoff from Traschel to O.Perez cause of the road track records ALOT of that IMO is negetated by the fact STL struggles vs LHP.NY has thrown Glavine twice and Dave Williams versus them this year ...all low scoring NYM wins(believe STL scored 5 runs total in those 3 games). We saw Darren Oliver come in yesterday and give them 6 scoreless innings allowing just 3 hits. We saw David Wells allow just 2 runs in his playoff start vs StL. I think its safe to say StL struggles vs LH.


Now you look at Perez's away numbers and scream...0-7 with a 9+ERA. However his action was limited in a somewhat Met uniform on the road. He was awful in Coors but it Coors and I never really weigh Coors starts in any analysis. Then he went 5 innings @ FLA allowed 4 runs but had 11K's. After shutting out ATL weeks earlier he allowed 6runs in 5 1/3 in ATL. Then he finished with 4 innings and 1 run in WASH. So 2 decent and 2 poor. He allowed 16 runs in 5 innings @ Coors this year also had a road start spurt of 3 games where he was blasted for 23runs in 8 1/3 innings...OUCH(last 2 in Pitt and 1st in NY). So I am saying his stats are poor but also not as bad as they look(49er in 46.1 inns) becomes 26runs in 38 innings...


He has had some success against STL including 2 solid home starts in Pitt this yr versus them but was hit hard in STL. 13 2/3 inns 12 hits and 5runs at home but 5 earned in 5 innings away(10hits and 7runs). The only defense I have is he was facing STL in back to back starts and the first one was solid...Last yr he started twice in STL ole Busch and his Pirates won both. He went 6 innings and allowed 4 runs but the second he was lifted after 1 2/3 innings in the next( so 4 runs in 7 2/3). In 2004 he pitched 3 times against them allowing 7 runs in 20 innings all 3 runs or less and 6 or 7 innings. He won in STL 3-2. Back to 2003 he was hit hard the first time he faced them in STL allowing 5 runs in 4 innings but he rebounded 10 days later at home going 7 allowing just 2 runs. So his track record is decent .


The key bats against LHP are Encarnacion , Pujols , And the rest are so-so. Eck is a soft .280 , Rolen just .259 and he is hurting , while preston Wilson or Taguchi hit about .280. The Cards generally hit better in day games with only 4 guys above 280 at NITE the rest at 252 or below( Rolen , Eck , Encarnacion and Pujols). Indivually there are some decent numbers vs Oliver 5/17 Encarnacion and Taguchi if he plays5/16 Yadier9/24 Rolen9/20 Pujols3/10 Eck3/8 Edmonds1/8 Belliard1/11 Preston WIlson

Lets look at Reyes:First the guy hasnt pitched since my birthday...which you all know is 10/1...(just kidding). He lasted 2/3 innings that start and is even quoted by YahooSports as being somehwat concerened about his command and seems to not know what to expect himself.


Before that he went on 9 /27 so less then an ining or work since 9 /27.Reyes allowed 17 hrs in 85 1/3 innings. He allowed a .278 BAA to LHB with a 1.43 WHIP. At nite with STL only 48-60 he allowed 13 hrs and 35 runs in 57 1/3 innings!

His 1st 4 starts of 2006 were all solid:

25 Innings 14 hits 6 runs 2hrs 6 bb 17 K

Since in 13 starts:

60 1/3 Inn 70 H 42 runs 15 hr 28 bb 55K's.

- All NYM are 280 ++ vs RHP primarily cause of how many LHB they have and Wright is .312 vs RHP.

- All NYM are .274 ++(really 280 outside of Valentin) on the road except Shawn Green.

Play : NYM +121 (5x)


I think there is value in the over since its the same 9.5 as yesterday with a much shakier SP duo. I am just weighing if its better to play the NYM over 4.5 team total. I'll be back with that...Good Luck