Looking ahead Week 7 NFL and Week 8 NCAAF

Already on:

Buffalo +6 -110
Vikings +7.5 -120
Arizona ML -130(played before MNF started)

Looking at :
KC +5

Just a ridiculous number IMO. KC played like shit but ran into a sleeping giant @ Pitt. I think these teams are basically the same as the 2005 versions and KC won at home as a PK. The key is LJ and the play of the OL here. SD seemed to have trouble slowing the SF offense in the 1st H not sure what changed after halftime. I am not buying into SD as an offensive juggernaut when LT has done little past few games. I know he had 4 TDS last game but there just inside th e10 and handed him the ball against a defense that couldnt slow OAKLAND. Last 4 weeks 21c 71 yds , 13c 36yds , 27c 98yds , 19c 71 yds...not very impressive. KC is a veteran defens that will rebound IMO. Expecting a real low scoring battle here....

Houston +10

Again just ridiculous number. Houston played a good half @ Dallas...only a half but a misleading final. What has Jax done besides the 41-0 game to be 10 pt chalk away? They are 0-2 on the road and I think this number is gigantic. Would Indy even be -10 @ Houston... I'll be on this and see how Jags again battle these defensive injuries. History on the Texans side as well

ATL +1 +102 (now +2.5)

GB +4 -108 (now +4.5) WR woes now

Denver -4.5

Was thinking Denver here since there defense is awesome and the Browns cant stop the run. Just not sure laying -4.5 against an always tough Brown squad is worth it.

Lions +3.5 -104

Played it early then changed my mind when Rogers got suspended since he is there defense. Will revisit later in the week but for now I am off it and washed my play.

Cincy -3 -115

Think there is alot of overreaction with Cincy. Now they lost Levi Jones but he wasnt a 100% anyway IMO. carolina struggles at time defending the run and has escaped with some narrow wins against TB and Balt who played with Boller @ QB. The key is slowing DeShaun Foster and that is why we need to check wha LBers are healthy for Cincy. This is turning into a must win for Cincy...

NCAAF

Already on:

Over 51 Nebraska and Texas-105 (7x) I think this number could get cheaper cause the UT secondary is looking healthier SO I played Under 51.5 -110 to WASH this play and will wait to see if we get below 50...I dont see it going higher then 52 so its worth the gamble on waiting . Today I see 49.5 as a total so I made a wise decision last nite but not sure I like this OVER anymore.

One thing to watch for is the health of the Texas secondary. Right now I assuming that Brown and Griffin wont be a 100%. If that changes Imight need to rethink this. All you have to do is see how Baylor moved the ball on texas to understand there significance. Nebraska's defense couldnt slow Kansas down at home.....400yards passing allowed and 140 on the ground game. Nebraska at home vs some soft opponents 49 ,56,56,39... Last year OU traveled to Nebraska and won 31-24 but once they started just throwing the ball they moved the offense. Last year the cornhuskers didnt have much of a ground game and it has improved this season.

Weekday Games(played):

Florida Atlantic +8 -101 (2x) +9 -101(1x) Over 19.5 team FAU +103(1x)

Even with the possibility of there top 4 WR's being out I think the Home squad barks here. The WR issue isnt something new and the offense has shown life since switching QB's. ULL is off a huge upset @ Houston and probably laying a bit to much here IMO...

Result : ULL wins 6-0 buts its an FAU ATS win!!! (+2.00)

Under 51 -105 Central Michigan (3x)(now 50 -105)

Under 25 -107 2nd H (1x)

Basically CMU can stop the run but struggles vs the pass. Getsy and Ryan had big yardage games vs them but there running backs did very little to contribute. With BG bulock is a huge part of there offense and if he doesnt get going I envision a low scoring like they had @ Ohio..dont think the hold CMUto 9 points but CMU is not an explosive offense either. They did score alot @ Toledo and Kentucky but they had 2 Pick 6's @ Toledo and versuis Kentucky the fell behind 28-7 early and just thro all dayto catch up. Both played EMU and went UNDER with totals in the high 40's. Expecting something near 24-20..thought this line should have been about 5.5 or 6 so no play...

Under 41 -110 Utah & NM (3x) (now under 41 -116)

Under 21.5 -116 2nd H (2x) (24-10 Utah H)

Do I dare say 2 incompetent offenses with solid defenses? The Utes avg slightily above 300 yards which was aided by games vs SDST and UTAH ST. While NM doesnt average 300 yards per contest!! Bothg of these teams largely benefit from short fields and defensive scores. Last year in Utah when NM pulled off the upset there were 2 defensive scores and 4 TD passes of about 50 yards...gone are Mckarney and Hank Baskett and Utah is without Johnson. Last week NM managed 280 yards but got 39 points!!!!!!!!!! The key here is simply playing good defense but not committing costly turnovers or having defensive scores...if we avoid that this could be 17-13. NM's defense has already been tested ta home by Missouri and UTEP. Would not lay points with Utah on the road so NM makes more sense IMO but will pass...

The only thing I have entertained in the Virginia game is the UNDER UNC 17.5 -114. For the most part they held the Terps O in check keeping them scoreless in the 1st H. Ultimately they had 4 TDS but one was a defensive score and the other a 56 yard run by Lattimore... UNC has not shown bug play ability and they have struggled versus the run and with Sewell being a dual option QB he could present problems. His YPA were over 11 week which is a huge improvement for him. Its hard to predict what UNC team shows up..they really didnt play all that badly vs VaTech , Rutgers and Miami but were poor vs Clemson and USF...outside of Furman the USF game was the only time they topped 16 points.

New Mexico +6 -104 (2x)

With Utah struggle on offense cant back them as chalk ina road conference game that I expect to be low scoring.

UNC buy +7.5 -120 (2x)

UNC 2nd +3 -105 2nd H (1x)

Just looking at UNC season outside of 2 games Clemson and USF they didnt play all that poorly. Miami's offense didnt do much on them , some costly turnovers vs RU and VaTech killed them. They were like +16 to +20 @ Clemson and Miami places much toughre then UVA. On ething Ilearned is that as improved as UVA is they still dont know how to win and letting that game get away vs Maryland maybe has a hangover efefct they need to ware off after awhile of play. just dont see much offense thinking 20-16 or so..

Team Totals

Under 24.5 -127 Utah (2x)

Under 17.5 -119 UNC (2x)

Friday:

Looking at a few things here:

-WVU -12.5 -113 1st Half & possibly the over 24.5 1st Half.

-Under 14.5 -127 UConn team and Over 36.5 +100 WVU team.

Really the Huskies have had trouble scoring and needed a 98 yd run and Punt return to score vs Army. WVU has done well getting out to leads and stopping the run as well as rendering it useless. Only once has WVU not scored 40 this year @ East Carolina.. which they really were killed by 3 Ints as they punted just ONCE.

Saturday :

Under 54.5 -105 Syracuse & Louisville(3x)

The Orangeman did a decent job on defense last year in Louisville and and last home game vs Pitt. The Cards offense was abit out of sync and I am not sure they have the running game to exploit Cuse weakness. The cuse offense still seems to struggle versus any above average defenses see Iowa , Pitt and WVU game. The Cards defense has been real solid at hasnt allowed more then 17 points since the opener....

VaTech -13.5 -110 (3x) & -16.5 -120 (3x)

Simply put you know VaTech is coming out hungry here especially in a TV game at nite off 2 losses . The So Miss offense has looked awful on the road and now we know the line jumped cause RB snesation Damion Fletcher underwent surgery and is OUT. They scored 6 @ Tulsa , 7 @ Florida and 19 @ UCF most thanks to game changing momentum turnovers and UCF defense is very inconsistent!!(see Pitt game). I didnt see them breaking 14 points here and might play a team total as well depending. Tulsa and both UCF should have scored in at least in the high 20's and FLA scored 34 so after 2 straight losses you would expect this VaTech squad to break 30(low before BC was 26 vs GT). The line could seem high but look at it like they were -29 to cincy and -8.5 to GaTech....I would think GaTech is alot better and stronger line value wise then So Miss so the initial 5 pt seperation bewteen the games looks LOW and as I said Cincy was -29 ...

Over 47 -105 Baylor and Kansas -105 (5x)

Both offenses playing well recently. Baylor has played decent defense athome but against TCU , Army and Kansas State. Kansas doesnt seem to be able to defend the pass see Nebraska and Ok State(Shawn Bell for Baylor put up 30+ @ Col & @ Tex). The Kansas offense has been a little inconsistent but played some godd games vs Ok St , @ NEb and @ Toledo.....expecting a shootout.

Over 54 -105 Temple (5x)

Just what the doctor ordered for NIU. Wolfe and Horvath should explode especially since Wolfe was shut down by WMU. The Temple offense continuesto improve and NIU defense isnt very special ....42-14 worst case IMO...

Rice & UCF Over 54.5 -105 (3x)

Both teams seem defensively challenged. UCF has a good offense that just appears to self destruct. You would hope they show up this week after taking last week off against pitt. They have serious issues defending the pass. Rice has put up points against all the teams that arent major schools(UCLA , FSU and Texas) see Houston 30 , Tulane 24 , UAB ,34 and Army 48

Texas Tech ML -130 (3x maybe 5x)

Have to admit I just dont see TT losing 3 straight. Iowa State has done very liitle this year...2 pt win in OT at home vs Toledo , 6 point win vs UNLV at home and a 1 point win over Northen Iowa at home...

Oklahoma State ML -130 (3x maybe 5x)

For me I cant be impressed with A&Ms offense ane the fact they have one true road game and almsot lost @ KU to the backup QB Barrman. Sure Ok State slept through there 1st H this week against KU but with Meier at QB for KU they still silienced everyone in the 2nd H with 42 points. A&M can be thrown on and while they beat Missouri they lost vs TTech and almost vs Army. I look for Bobby reid's excellent 2nd H play to follow over......

GaTech +7.5 -102 (3x)

Think the Jackets luck out again here with Stuckey being OUT just like when they played VaTech without a few key players. GT can stop the run and you have to wonder how effective Clemson can be on offense relying on Proctor and the passing game. thinking Under 47 as Clemson D is very underrated.

Under 48 Northwestern -105 (5x)

Both Mich State and Northwestern have problmes on offense. The Wildcats have been season long while just about every key player including Stanton is banged up or OUT. Both defenses are solid here and I would expect a tough competitive game......

Ball State +4 -107 (4x) ML +156(1x)

While I cant say Ball State impresses me I do think this game shouldbe a Pkem. They caught NIU in a great spot playing its 3d staright away game and won by2...not impressive. They won @ Virginia when that team had QB issues that now seemed solved Sewell running the show. They also lost @ Indiana. They have common opponents in NIU and Indiana....WMU also didnt play well @ Ohio U...

Mississippi +17.5 -109 (5x) & 21 -110 (4x) Big move in this game still think -14 was fair.

I think ARK is getting way to much credit for the wins vs Bama and Auburn. For whatever reason Aubrun was flat and unable to stop the run that day. While Ole Miss will struggle versus the run this spread is ridiculous. MISS has played 3 straight solid games IMO against tough defenses and seem improvement each week. ARK looked horrible on offense in teh 2nd H vs Bama and won on a missed XP. Then agaisnt Auburn they had that early long TD pass where the ball would have been picked if the DB didnt fall and tehy never looked back after that. They just dont have enough balance IMO right now to blow a team out.....game should probablybe -13 if that

Buffalo +17 -110 (2x)now +18

While Buffalo is bad the Ohio U offense can be worse. Avoid turnovers and shortfields and 17 might be a tough number for them to score on there own even against Buffalo.

New Mex State +18.5 -109 (3x) Now +20.5

Figure Hawaii earned the publics trust but B-to -B trips to the States might be taxing. Oh and NM State gave Boise State a game and should do the same here as they can score just cant stop anyone.

Fresno State +32.5 -101(3x)

As good as LSU is and as well as they smoke inferior teams it seems that in 1 week Fresno went from still somewhat respectable to bottomfeeder. play the over as well here. Even a 45-14 blasting gets the jobe done...

Over 42 -125 Ten / Bama (5x)

Tenny has shown the ability to score on tougher defenses such as Fla , Cal and Georgia. So why shouldnt I expect at least 30 here?? While on the other hand the Tenny defense is very average allwoing 30+ to AF and Georgia.

Under 47 -105 GaTech and Clemson (3x)

Two very solid ACC defenses here. Clemson without Stuckey

UCLA +14.5 -110 (3x)

Guess I look at this like Oregon and Notre Dame are very similiar teams and venues to play it. If anything I might give the nod to the Oregon defense and this line is a FG higher then last weeks meeting which UCLA hopefully grew from.

Under 44 Michigan & Iowa (3x)

The UM defense continues to improve and become of the elite units. Iowa had trouble at home vs Ohio State and this is atoughertask IMO. With as well as tehy have played the UM offense hasnt really exploded scoring around 24-28 points during this run. With Manningham unlikely to play I again see a 24ish point performance. Think Iowa might hang here though in a 20-13 type game, this has been a historically tight game and UM keeps falling real close to the ATS number.

Looking at :
Missouri -14.5 -102
UTEP +6 -102
Und 45.5 -105 UAB
Under 42 Mid Ten
Under 52 Washington
North Texas +10.5 (PLAYED 3X)
SDST+14(now +13.5)
Over 41.5 Virginia(now 42) gonna pass though
Louisville -17 (now -16.5)
Over 42.5 Maryland (PLAYED @ 43-113 5X)
Tulane +32 / Over 49
South Car -3 (now --4 +100)
Northen Ill -34 (now -33-105)
Wyoming -4
Nevada over 54 -105 (mow 53.5)
Arizona +2.5
Over 59 -111 Ok St & A&M (passing on)
Under 39 Oklahoma (now 39.5)
Over 52.5 Oregon (now 52 -105)

Still looking at this Schedule! GL