Monday Nite Football

Extremely disappointed in my performance yesterday. Yes, I had some bad luck were a couple games could have turned out differently but really that doesnt change they were the wrong plays / sides. Clearly the Seahwaks and Dolphins are what I am referring to and the more info I gather it just seems ridiculous these teams lost ATS. Anyway I am moving on...yesterday is yesterday WIN or LOSE!


THEE Chicago Bears travel to face the Arizona Cardinals

Things to know:

1) Arizona will be christening it new stadium with its first MNF game. So nice motivational edge for the home squad.

2) They have to decide open roof with the possibilty of rain Or closed roof and force the Bears to play in Dome..interesting angle IMO. You could add weather as a factor if its open roof and the ground is wet and you could force an outdoor team to play in a DOME for what I would expect to a loud and rowdy MNF crowd.

3)Matt Leinart played @ CHI in the preseason. Now how do we weigh this if it all. I think it helps him. He entered the game with 5:23 to play in the 2nd Q and was responsible for 16 of the 23 points they scored. While its preseason generally the 3rd preseason game sees the starters go longer. SO while its an assumption I would think that he faced the CHI starting defense for his time in the 2nd Q and probably some of the 3rdQ(ARI scored 10 points in that time). Note that Edge only played early 1st quarter so he wasnt involved.

Read this:

He took over for Kurt Warner in the second quarter and completed 15-of-21 passes for 144 yards and a touchdown."I feel comfortable with the offense for the most part right now," Leinart said. "So they called a lot of stuff, and I just went out there and tried to execute."He entered the game with 5:13 left in the second quarter and completed 12 consecutive passes at one point, while leading the Cardinals (2-1) to a field goal at the end of the first half and a touchdown early in the third quarter.

Leinart completed all six passes on his second possession as the Cardinals drove 54 yards in the final minute of the half, Neil Rackers' field goal extending their lead to 10-6.

After Antrel Rolle intercepted Rex Grossman on the opening possession of the third quarter, Leinart went 4-for-4 as the Cardinals drove 42 yards against the Bears' first-string defense for a touchdown that made it 17-6.

From Denny Green:

Matt had a lot of poise going in there," Green said. "When they gave him time, he stood in there and delivered. When they were all chasing our guys, he stood in there and scrambled for yardage at some key times. He had a good, solid performance."

How do you weigh this??

There is no real way but you have to think playing in Chicago and getting it done even in preseason helps a QB's confidence. You can say he will get pressured but Green said he was able to scramble when the OL broke down...very encouraging IMO.

4) Arizona is second in the NFL in forcing OPPOSING RB's into 10 Fumbles this year...mix in the possibility of a slick ball here .

Lets look at ARIZONA:

Game1: Host SF opened at -7 close at -8.5 /-9. Win 34-27

Points of emphasis:

It appears to me 1st quarter defense is an issue with Zona. Basically they allowed 2 long 1st Q drives (the last carried into the 2ndQ) culminating in SF TDs. After that SF ran 44 plays for 193 yards(4.39 per play ). Actually down 10 against a prevent defense they ran 10 plays for 69 yards..so there was a span from there last TD score till the end of the game where they ran 34 plays an only gained 124 yards (3.65 per play).

Arizona said they were fooled by SF misdirection plays which CHI can use as well tonite. Zona was sloppy with 11 penalties and SF short fields for 10 2nd H points..they did manage to hold SF to 0 for 9 on third down...Gore was really the star with 87 rushing yards and 83 receiving yards...only knock was Gore had 16 c 87 yds but a 32 yard run was most of it.

Game 2 : @ Seattle line was -7 and lost 21-10.

Why I opened the last recap with 1st Q defense issues was because they again allowed 2 1st Q TDS then settled down. In some ways the game wasnt as close as 21-10 but in other ways a couple of breaks might have made it so. Zona missed two long FGS earlier and Sea did lead 21-3 at one point. They did a nice job of containg Alexander 26 c 89 yards. After SEA 1st 2 TDS score they had 9 possesions and only moved the ball on 2 occassions a missed FG drive and late TD drive. Those drives went for 11 plays each and 51 and 80 yards respectably(very solid). The other 7 lasted 27 plays and amassed 41 YARDS!! I didnt count last possession of the 1st H and game as Seattle was just running the clock. So 49 plays for 172 yards isnt very solid....After cutting it 21-10 ARI had the ball inside the SEA 30 but they fumbled with about 9 minutes remaining(could have been a 1 possession game). They again committed 11 penalities and SEA was 6 of 13 on 3rd down.

Game 3 : Host STL laying -5 lose 16-14.

This game they played GOOD 1st defense shutting down and followed that with a strong 4th Q. However bewteen it didnt appear STL had much trouble moving the ball ( 24 plays 182 yds in 2ndQ and 21 plays 142 ayrds in 3rd Q).After grabbing an early 7-0 lead, they got the ball up 7-3 and drove down the field 71 yards but on 3rd and 2 from the STL 13 Warner was picked..so 10 or 14-3 is out the window. STL then takes the ball and Bulger hooks up with Holt a few times and score a TD for a STL 10-7 lead.

Next possesion on the 1st pass Warner is again picked and that leads to an STL FG before half for a 13-7 lead STL...game changed in a blink...STL gets the ball to start the 2nd H and drives all the way downfield but settles for 3 points. ARI drives 81 yards on the ensuing kickoff now down 16-7 and Warner for the 3rd staright possession is PICKED OFF! they were 1st goal at the 2 and James was stoped twice..on 3rd and goal from the 1 another INT!!

Just look at how bad those INTS were...they lead to a STL FG and TD plus took at least 6 points , probably 10 poinst and maybe even 14 ARI points off the board. This time STL again moves the ball but ultimately fumbles and both exchanges punts to close out the 3rd and start the 4th Q. About 12 minutes left ARI drives the length of field and scores a TD making it 16-14. With slightily more then 4 minutes left STL gets the ball back ad attempts to run clock except they FUMBLE again. Now with about 2 minutes to play ARI starts at STL 30 already in game winning FG range.....Inside the red zone with about 1:46 toplay Warner strikes again fumbling.......GAME OVER....clearly ZONA SHOULD HAVE WON!

STL was 6-12 on 3rd down but Jackson had just 62 yards on 24 c. WHich is encouraging since we know CHI's game plan is running the ball and it appears ARI can stop the run.

Week 4 @ ATL catch 7 or so and lose 32-10.The good news was they held ATL to 4 of 14 on 3rd down and had just 4 penalties. The bad news Warner struck again with 4 turnovers(actually2). This game was 12-10 at half and 15-10 midway through the 3rd Quarter. Now the Zona defense allowed 9 points on 3 FGS but it was mainly due to starting field position. Ther 1st 2 drives started at the Zona 23 and 49..so only 6 points is solid and the 3rd FG wasa 50 yarder..To start the 2nd Q ATL drove downfield and was picked right before the End zone and Adrian Wilson went 99 yards for a TD the other way briefly taking the lead. To start the 3rd Q ATL again moved downfield but settled for a FG. Now 15-10 ARI gets the ball back and a few plays into the possession Warner is you guessed PICKED. ATL gets a PICK 6 and scores ...22-10 game. Now 22-10 ARI gets the ball back drives to inside the ATL 30 chews up over 6 minutes and enter the 4th Q. Warner FUMBLES on the ATL 22....next play Norwood takes the handoff and goes 78 yards! 29-10... Still early 4th Q and Warner is out but Leinart fumbles leading to a FG....32-10.....I believe Leinart moved them inside the ATL 30 and was picked on a tipped pass but it really didnt matter as you can see how ARI once agained HANDED OVER a win and at worst an ATS COVER.

They did allow a ton of yards but alot of that was to vick scrambling (101 yards I think) and alot of it Norwood on the 78 yard run. Dunn had 19c for 55yds. Cleary Grossman isnt the scrambling threat Vick is.

Week 5 : Host KC as 3.5 pt dogs and lose late 23-20.

Hard defeat as they led early 14-0. So for the most part they erased there 1st Q defensive struggles after game 2. They held KC to 5 for 14 on 3rd down but manged just 3 for 14 themselves. Impressive was the 16c for 36 yards that LJ had. Although late game his 78 yd run on a screen pass is what put them in FG range for the game winner. Rackers missed a 51 yarder to tie with2 tix left..showing great poise by the youngster.

KC didnt exactly move the ball on offense vs Zona. They used a block punt inside Zonas 10 yd to score there first TD which went a whole 6 yards. Leinart threw a pick in the 4th Q but KC didnt move the ball and settled for a FG. Also in the 1st Q backed up Zona punted and give KC good field position (mid field) which led to ther first FG. So of 23 points they aided them in 13 of them and the last 3 were aided by a LJ rumble on a screen pass...It just seems up 17-3 they never put the nail in the coffin...

So is Arizona your typical 1-4 team? I think clearly not. There defensive seems solid and solid against the run imparticular. What has killed them is volume of turnovers and timing of those turnovers...it seemed almost everyone was deep in the opposition territory.We know Zona has struggled running the ball but Leinart at QB gives them so many more options then Warner who had lead feet like Bledsoe.

CHI did allow 97 yds on 23 c to Moore and Taylor in Minny and Green cracke a 100 in GB although half of those yards came with a big defecit. With all ARI run issues they still have EDGE who can break loose at any moment and CHI is just NOT a shutdown run defense on the road IMO..there good but not great.

Lets also remember that CHI scored just 1 TD on offense and that was to win the game after Minny fumbled and was onlya 37 yard drive. Grossman as I should still will FORCE a pass if pressured IMO. Now you can say CHI shutout GB and didnt allow an offensive score versus Minny but ARI is clearly a much better offense then either even w/o the services of Larry Fitzgerald. I think ARI can score 16 or 17 points here. The key is can they NOT shoot themselves in the foot and with Leinart who has played in big game after big game already @ USC...I would think at worst it wont be disasterous like it was with Warner at QB. Remember that @ GB they scored on a great 49 YD catch by Berrian against a team who clearly cant defend the deep ball see the Eagle game for reference....and Ahmad Carroll's recent release. They had 4 FGS in bewteen there last TD a Punt Return by Hester.

TJ and benson only managed 32c for 97 yards @ GB another solid run defense. While TJ had just 18c for 54 yards @ Minny with Benson getting no touches. Personally I dont feel a need to recap the Bears home games because the Bears arent HOME and if you dont know how awesome there defense is at home you havent paid attention...They beat Det and Buffalo badly...nothing of interest. You know going those teams wont even break 10 points..Now they slaughtered SEA who was w/o Alexander and Stevans. While still working Branch into the mix. That was somewhat impressive but if you watched what STL did this past weekend thru the air vs SEA it really waters it down IMO. Also remember to look at spreads...CHI only -3.....even if they played again this week highest I see that line is -7. SEA was one dimensonal and againnst CHI that doesnt work. I'll heap praise on CHI and say on a neutral field they are 4 pts better then Sea who is basically 4 points better then ARI on a neutral field...that makes CHI 8 points stronger then ARIZONA....but Cards have home field and yes I would THINK that CHI -5 is a much more accurate line tonite then 12 or 13...

Personally I dont see CHI scoring as much here maybe 20 points...thinking 20-16.So I will post my ARIZONA play soon...but it will big and I see +14 @ BoDog now as well as thinking about UNDER 41......Good Luck...feel free to comment...especially if you disagree.

Plays:
Arizona +14 -115 (8x)
ML +660 (1x)
Under 25.5 CHI team +104 (2x)

Under 41-110 (2x)
Under 20.5 +104 1st H (1x)
Zona 1st H ML +360 (1/2x)

GL