Its Friday !!! What a relief to have just one game to focus on. The Big East clash of WVU @ UConn!!

I will say the last 2 days have been disappointing in baseball but I feel I was on the right track just my decisions ultimately were wrong in weighing the info at hand. Alot of the data now that I have gone back and looked at it was pointing to an UNDER last nite but I think I focused to heavily on the DAYS REST situation. I felt Oliver Perez was going to pitch well last nite along the lines of 3 runs in 6 innings and basically figured that STL would end up with 4 runs...which why I was thinking of playing Under 4.5 STL team. Being I thought the NYM would win they would need 5 runs minimum to win and I had hoped to get Suppan out early. Which is alos why I entertained the NYM over 4.5 team...which worst case would have given me a split and wash on the totals. Willie Randolph looked alot like Torre IMO last nite. Just letting the game play out instead of making things happen...like sending Floyd to PH in the 9th instead of bunting..Floyd could do alot of wrong in that situation like K but worse with a bum achilles ground in a DP. As well as lets face Floyd didnt have a very good season this year so there IMO was no reason for him to PH. You bunt them over and have Reyes up with 2nd and 3rd...much different situation.. As for leaving Perez in to face Pujols....any baseball observer who knows the game well saw Pujols swinging badly and on his front foot since his 1st inning hit 2 days ago. Which tells you he is jumping atthe ball and that a 95MPH heater up in the zone will be tough for him to handle. its a gutsy call in some ways but I feel a true baseball man sees Pujols swings and sees how well Ollie is pitching and its a no-brainer... Also see how LaRussa sac'd with Belliard to make sure he got that run? Naturally the SP is up next but its a must early on to tie the game up... Bottomline is I weighed the INFO incorrectly and got hurt the brightside is after a 10 day run where I was apprx +150 UNITS I had to eventually give some back. Now lets go forward.

College Football this week...
Weekday Games(played):
Florida Atlantic +8 -101 (2x) +9 -101(1x) Over 19.5 team FAU +103(1x)
Even with the possibility of there top 4 WR's being out I think the Home squad barks here. The WR issue isnt something new and the offense has shown life since switching QB's. ULL is off a huge upset @ Houston and probably laying a bit to much here IMO...

Result : ULL wins 6-0 buts its an FAU ATS win!!! (+2.00)

Under 51 -105 Central Michigan (3x)(now 50 -105)
Under 25 -107 2nd H (1x)
Basically CMU can stop the run but struggles vs the pass. Getsy and Ryan had big yardage games vs them but there running backs did very little to contribute. With BG bulock is a huge part of there offense and if he doesnt get going I envision a low scoring like they had @ Ohio..dont think the hold CMUto 9 points but CMU is not an explosive offense either. They did score alot @ Toledo and Kentucky but they had 2 Pick 6's @ Toledo and versuis Kentucky the fell behind 28-7 early and just thro all dayto catch up. Both played EMU and went UNDER with totals in the high 40's. Expecting something near 24-20..thought this line should have been about 5.5 or 6 so no play...

Result : CMU wins 31-14 and 2nd H is 14-0 (+4.00)

Under 41 -110 Utah & NM (3x) (now under 41 -116)
Under 21.5 -116 2nd H (2x) (24-10 Utah H)
New Mexico _6 -104 (2x)
Do I dare say 2 incompetent offenses with solid defenses? The Utes avg slightily above 300 yards which was aided by games vs SDST and UTAH ST. While NM doesnt average 300 yards per contest!! Bothg of these teams largely benefit from short fields and defensive scores. Last year in Utah when NM pulled off the upset there were 2 defensive scores and 4 TD passes of about 50 yards...gone are Mckarney and Hank Baskett and Utah is without Johnson. Last week NM managed 280 yards but got 39 points!!!!!!!!!! The key here is simply playing good defense but not committing costly turnovers or having defensive scores...if we avoid that this could be 17-13. NM's defense has already been tested ta home by Missouri and UTEP. Would not lay points with Utah on the road so NM makes more sense IMO but will pass...
The only thing I have entertained in the Virginia game is the UNDER UNC 17.5 -114. For the most part they held the Terps O in check keeping them scoreless in the 1st H. Ultimately they had 4 TDS but one was a defensive score and the other a 56 yard run by Lattimore... UNC has not shown bug play ability and they have struggled versus the run and with Sewell being a dual option QB he could present problems. His YPA were over 11 week which is a huge improvement for him. Its hard to predict what UNC team shows up..they really didnt play all that badly vs VaTech , Rutgers and Miami but were poor vs Clemson and USF...outside of Furman the USF game was the only time they topped 16 points.

Result: NM wins 34-31 and 2nd H is NM 24-7(-3.52)

UNC buy +7.5 -120 (2x)
UNC 2nd +3 -105 2nd H (1x)

Just looking at UNC season outside of 2 games Clemson and USF they didnt play all that poorly. Miami's offense didnt do much on them , some costly turnovers vs RU and VaTech killed them. They were like +16 to +20 @ Clemson and Miami places much toughre then UVA. On ething Ilearned is that as improved as UVA is they still dont know how to win and letting that game get away vs Maryland maybe has a hangover efefct they need to ware off after awhile of play. just dont see much offense thinking 20-16 or so..

Result: UVA wins 23-0 and 2ndh 14-0. (-3.45)

Team Totals
Under 24.5 -127 Utah (2x)Lost (-2.54)
Under 17.5 -119 UNC (2x)WON (+2.00)

Friday: WVU @ UConn

Looking at a few things here:
-WVU -12.5 -113 1st Half & possibly the over 24.5 1st Half.
-Under 14.5 -127 UConn team and Over 36.5 +100 WVU team.

FF to today:
- WVU is now -13.5 +101 1st H & Over 24.5 -107
- Under now 12.5 +115 and over 35.5 -111 for WVU.


At first glance you find it hard to believe that WV will have any trouble disposing of Uconn. The Huskies played dual QB threats vs Navy and @ USF Losing 38-16 and 41-17. So its clear the defense has trouble versus these type offenses. What is somewhat scary is that WVU has some time off but its next game is 11/2 vs Louisville...so look ahead is DEFINETLY a concern.

I think most would agree that WVU hasnt exactly been tested competition wise to date. I see there 2 toughest tests being the road games @ Miss State and @ ECU. I dont exactlt see them dominanting those games. They need to 2 TDS in the final 3 minutes to cover vs Miss St including a punt return with 1 minute left. Miss State had 3 drives of 65+ yds , they missed a long FG and threw INTs from the WVU 7 and 27 yd lines...alot of missed opportunities when it was still a 21-7 game. So my main point is two fold. The WVU offense has somewhat struggled on the road but the DEFENSE while posting great opponent ppg numbers can have the ball moved on them.

Now ECU only scored 10 points BUT had 5 drives of 54 + yards and 6 of 34+ in 10 drives. Again they shot themselves in the foot. Whne a 17-7 game they fumbled inside WVU 10 yard line then late down 27-10 they turned it over on downs on the WVU 12 and ended teh game stuck on WVU 4! Again a ton of points left off the board. As well as alot of WVU points coming on short fields which they are deadly on...

I believe WVU allows apprx 43 % conversions on 3rd down this year. I tend to feel that despite a very average showing vs Army the offense has improved under Bonislawski. My evidence is not just the poinst they have scored 21,17 and 16 but the fact they have scored in the 1st and 2nd Q's...10,9 and 14 in the 1st H past 3 games. What has killed them to an extent is the kicking game as Nuzio has lost his job and they are 3 of 9 on FGs and missed a XP or two. missing FGs after moving the ball totally kill momentum and tend to take the wind out of the team and offense. Not to mention when you are a far from a good offense you just cant move the ball at will so drives that end up with zeroes hurt. they missed 3 FG's vs Army and two very makeable ones as soon as Army cut it to 14-7 the offense drove 80 yards for a score. They had the 98 yd TD run and get a fumble on the ensuing kickoff but a miss a 42yarder... , they had teh ball 2nd and 3 on the Army 19 but commit a 15 yd penalty and get knocked back to the 34 and yo guessed it missed a 52yder , early 3rd Q get an INT drive it to the 7 and miss a 25 yd fg!

The key for this game is what it usually is TURNOVERS and timing off the turnovers. It appears that part of Uconns plan is to do its best to keep the ball out of WVU hands. The best defense is offense type game plan. Does the fact that UCONN rallied after kicking 5 players off the team lead to something?? I think Uconn lets Nuzie kick which is the better choice no matter what struggles he has had. The Huskies will be w/o DE Cody Brown . Uconn will be more of a test on the ground then Miss State or ECU IMO....not that there great but Caulley is better IMO then what the others offered.

So in conclusion with Louisville on deck and UConn having homecoming tonite this isnt an ideal spot for WVU. Some will point to last years meeting BUT Bonislawski was not the QB and suprisingly the line ws only -15.5. It was 3rd stringer dan Brown who I believed started. Lets remember that UConn last year beat USF at home 15-10 and lost 30-20 to Louisville with Cantwell @ QB. This is a TON of points to be giving to a team especially under the circumstances...

It comes down to can UConn score 17 points here if they can you need WVU to put up 42 and looking at there 1st 2 road games that has been easy. Looking at last years meeting UConn did zero on offense so clearly that must changebut most of what WVU did on offense was in response to the Huskie offense ineptness.

The first TD came via short punt when UConn was somewhat backed up that was also returned for about 15yds...starting field position the Uconn 39 and WVU scored. After a Huskie FG to make it 7-3 Nuzie kicked the ball out of bounds starting them at the WVU 35. They glided through the Huskie defense and scored so 14-3. The 3rd TD was again a somewhat backed up PUNTER and s short kick to start atthe UConn 35. Again a few plays later its 21-3. Next possession down 21-3 Brockington takes the handoff and fumbles...WVU has the ball at the UConn 2o! Another short field and a relative quick score again 28-3. They have started INSIDE the Huskie 35 on 3 occassions already. Next possession Brown is picked at midfield and its taken down to Huskie 14!! So again another possession deep inside Huskie territory. White scores to make it 35-3 thanks to another short field!! After that they managed a FG and TD late thanks to a 50 yd reception. So the Huskies basically just handed them this game thanks to turnovers which Bonislawski has jsut 1 INT in 3 games and thanks to poor punting which Pavarsis seems to be doing better at statistically.

Tonite:
Connecticut +24 -105 (6x)
Over 12.5 -127 UConn (2x)
UConn 1st H +13.5 -111(1x)
Under 49.5 -110 (1x) missed 50.5!

Teaser (2x)
Over 42.5 / Uconn +29

Working on Saturdays NCAAF card as well as the NFL. Which I start a new thraed for both elaborating on my earlier thoughts. GL all . There has to be alot of disagreeing with this one but I just dont see why this line is above 20...