NFL Sunday

Already on:

Buffalo +6 -110(7x)

It seems that NE off a BYE week is being inflated. We saw NE open the season laying 10 at home and barely win. Since then I havent seen much improvement from the NE offense. The way I see it value wise is Buff is stronger then the Jets so that gains makes this line high...playing this primarily cause its a conference game wioth what I feel is an inflated line even with NE and Belichekl having 2 weeks to prepare.

Vikings +7.5 -120(5x)

What has happened to the Seattle defense? 95 points past 3 weeks and Minny rested off a BYE. Basically I think Minnesota can move the ball thru the air with Brad Johnson. Minny against medicore offenses has not allowed more then 19 poinst this year..that should end Sunday though. I just dont see the Seahawks in sync and Minny gives them a headache all game. Line probably should be closer to -4.5. Neither team will have much success against the other on the ground.

Arizona ML -130(played before MNF started)(4x)

Right now Oakland has trouble moving the ball on offense and have to wonder how ARIZONA responds. Leinart looks very smooth and this is his 1st road start. If Cleveland was favored @ OAK then IMO the CARDS clearly deserve to be. Hopefully the switch with offensive cordinators maximizes there potential. Clearly it wont happen overnite bu thopefuly a step in the right direction. Whats lost is how well the Zona defense played IMO and Jordan is ailing....

KC +6 -115 (5x) /Under 41.5 -110 (3x)

Just a ridiculous number IMO. KC played like shit but ran into a sleeping giant @ Pitt. I think these teams are basically the same as the 2005 versions and KC won at home as a PK. The key is LJ and the play of the OL here. SD seemed to have trouble slowing the SF offense in the 1st H not sure what changed after halftime. I am not buying into SD as an offensive juggernaut when LT has done little past few games. I know he had 4 TDS last game but there just inside th e10 and handed him the ball against a defense that couldnt slow OAKLAND. Last 4 weeks 21c 71 yds , 13c 36yds , 27c 98yds , 19c 71 yds...not very impressive. KC is a veteran defens that will rebound IMO. Expecting a real low scoring battle here....

Houston +10 -113 (3x) Now off the board due to Leftwich's status.

Again just ridiculous number. Houston played a good half @ Dallas...only a half but a misleading final. What has Jax done besides the 41-0 game to be 10 pt chalk away? They are 0-2 on the road and I think this number is gigantic. Would Indy even be -10 @ Houston... I'll be on this and see how Jags again battle these defensive injuries. History on the Texans side as wellATL +1 +102 (now +2.5)GB +4 -108 (now +4.5) WR woes nowDenver -4.5Was thinking Denver here since there defense is awesome and the Browns cant stop the run. Just not sure laying -4.5 against an always tough Brown squad is worth it.Lions +3.5 -104 Played it early then changed my mind when Rogers got suspended since he is there defense. Will revisit later in the week but for now I am off it and washed my play.

Looking at:

Cincy -3-107/ under 44.5 -113 (passed on)
Think there is alot of overreaction with Cincy. Now they lost Levi Jones but he wasnt a 100% anyway IMO. carolina struggles at time defending the run and has escaped with some narrow wins against TB and Balt who played with Boller @ QB. The key is slowing DeShaun Foster and that is why we need to check wha LBers are healthy for Cincy. This is turning into a must win for Cincy...

Miami -5-109 (5X)
Sounds crazy but this line looks soft... trust me...just cant get the fact Miami is something like 2-16 ATS as a home fav. Dont forget two things here. First cold weather team playing in teh mIami heat and it should be 85++. The other is GB is a dog at home so all there road lines should basically be a TD or more..

TB +6.5 -110(3x)

The BLITZ factor could be huge here but this number is about what it should be considering the TB slow start. They have been in the past 3 games though.

Denver -4.5 -110(4x)Over 31 passed

Looking at the Browns banged up secondary. Cant see how Denevr doesnt score here. Cleveland is soft versus the run and we learned that Denver is a step up from Balt who laid 7 in Cleveland...they did barely win though....so -4.5 seems real fair in comparision.

Indy -8 +101(4x)

If I could figure out the Colts injury report especially on defense I would make a play. For WASH the secondary is in shambles with Rogers out and Springs still less then 100% and not starting last I heard. Last week both starting DT's missed the game and Travis Henry had a field day. The Colts clearly struggles versus the run and that is a concern. With 3 common opponents this line probably should be 10-12 points. Indy hosted Jags as -6.5 and with Skins being a FG home dog vs Jax I can safely say that Skins are 4 pts worse then Jags and NYG on neutral fields. Basically anything under -10 with both corners and DTs out presents value IMO.

Teaser (3x)
Over 37 Indy , over 30 Seattle , Over 21 Denver

Team Totals
Over 19 -115 Lions (3x)
Over 18 -112 Broncos(2x)
Under 18.5 -112 Oakland (2x)

working on the rest....GL