Saturday 10-21 College Football Thoughts

Here we go: (way to many plays)

Saturday :

Under 54.5 -105 Syracuse & Louisville(5x)

The Orangeman did a decent job on defense last year in Louisville and and last home game vs Pitt. The Cards offense was abit out of sync and I am not sure they have the running game to exploit Cuse weakness. The Cuse offense still seems to struggle versus any above average defenses see Iowa , Pitt and WVU game. The Cards defense has been real solid at hasnt allowed more then 17 points since the opener....(31-21 still cashes)


VaTech -13.5 -110 (3x) & -16.5 -120 (3x) could actually add.

Simply put you know VaTech is coming out hungry here especially in a TV game at nite off 2 losses . The So Miss offense has looked awful on the road and now we know the line jumped cause RB snesation Damion Fletcher underwent surgery and is OUT. They scored 6 @ Tulsa , 7 @ Florida and 19 @ UCF most thanks to game changing momentum turnovers and UCF defense is very inconsistent!!(see Pitt game). I dont see them breaking 14 points here and might play a team total as well depending. Tulsa and both UCF should have scored in at least in the high 20's and FLA scored 34 so after 2 straight losses you would expect this VaTech squad to break 30(low before BC was 26 vs GT). The line could seem high but look at it like they were -29 to cincy and -8.5 to GaTech....I would think GaTech is alot better and stronger line value wise then So Miss so the initial 5 pt seperation bewteen the games looks LOW and as I said Cincy was -29 ... No matter what you think of the VaTech offense think of it as a play against the SoMiss offense.

Over 47 -105 Baylor and Kansas -105 (5x)

Both offenses playing well recently. Baylor has played decent defense at home but against TCU , Army and Kansas State 3 sluggish offenses. Kansas doesnt seem to be able to defend the pass see Nebraska and Ok State(Shawn Bell for Baylor put up 30+ @ Col & @ Tex). The Kansas offense has been a little inconsistent but played some good games vs Ok St , @ Neb and @ Toledo.....expecting a shootout.

Over 54 -105 Temple (5x)

Just what the doctor ordered for NIU. Wolfe and Horvath should explode especially since Wolfe was shut down by WMU. The Temple offense continuesto improve and NIU defense isnt very special ....42-14 worst case IMO...

Rice & UCF Over 54.5 -105 (3x)

Both teams seem defensively challenged. UCF has a good offense that just appears to self destruct. You would hope they show up this week after taking last week off against pitt. They have serious issues defending the pass. Rice has put up points against all the teams that arent major schools(UCLA , FSU and Texas) see Houston 30 , Tulane 24 , UAB ,34 and Army 48

Texas Tech ML -130 (3x)

Have to admit I just dont see TT losing 3 straight. Iowa State has done very liitle this year...2 pt win in OT at home vs Toledo , 6 point win vs UNLV at home and a 1 point win over Northen Iowa at home... The scariest point is this line actually dropped!

Oklahoma State ML -130 (3x )might add to

For me I cant be impressed with A&M's offense and the fact they have one true road game and almsot lost @ KU to the backup QB Barrman. Sure Ok State slept through there 1st H this week against KU but with Meier at QB for KU they still silienced everyone in the 2nd H with 42 points. A&M can be thrown on and while they beat Missouri they lost vs TTech and almost vs Army. I look for Bobby reid's excellent 2nd H play to follow over......

GaTech +7.5 -102 (3x)
Under 47 -105 Clemson and GT (5x)

Think the Jackets luck out again here with Stuckey being OUT just like when they played VaTech without a few key players. GT can stop the run and you have to wonder how effective Clemson can be on offense relying on Proctor and the passing game. thinking Under 47 as Clemson D is very underrated.


Under 48 Northwestern -105 (5x)

Both Mich State and Northwestern have problems on offense. The Wildcats have been season long while just about every key player including Stanton is banged up or OUT. Both defenses are solid here and I would expect a tough competitive game......

Ball State +4 -107 (4x) ML +156(1x)

While I cant say Ball State impresses me I do think this game shouldbe a Pkem. They caught NIU in a great spot playing its 3d staright away game and won by2...not impressive. They won @ Virginia when that team had QB issues that now seemed solved Sewell running the show. They also lost @ Indiana. They have common opponents in NIU and Indiana....WMU also didnt play well @ Ohio U...

Mississippi +17.5 -109 (5x) & 21 -110 (4x) Big move in this game still think -14 was fair.

I think ARK is getting way to much credit for the wins vs Bama and Auburn. For whatever reason Aubrun was flat and unable to stop the run that day. While Ole Miss will struggle versus the run this spread is ridiculous. MISS has played 3 straight solid games IMO against tough defenses and seem improvement each week. ARK looked horrible on offense in teh 2nd H vs Bama and won on a missed XP. Then agaisnt Auburn they had that early long TD pass where the ball would have been picked if the DB didnt fall and tehy never looked back after that. They just dont have enough balance IMO right now to blow a team out.....game should probablybe -13 if that ..........hopefully I am not a sucker here.

Buffalo +17 -110 (2x)

While Buffalo is bad the Ohio U offense can be worse. Avoid turnovers and shortfields and 17 might be a tough number for them to score on there own even against Buffalo.

New Mex State +18.5 -109 (3x) Now +20.5 /+21 will probably add to

Figure Hawaii earned the publics trust but B-to -B trips to the States might be taxing. Oh and NM State gave Boise State a game and should do the same here as they can score just cant stop anyone.

Fresno State +32.5 -101(3x)

As good as LSU is and as well as they smoke inferior teams it seems that in 1 week Fresno went from still somewhat respectable to bottomfeeder. play the over as well here. Even a 45-14 blasting gets the job done...

Over 42 -125 Ten / Bama (5x)

Tenny has shown the ability to score on tougher defenses such as Fla , Cal and Georgia. So why shouldnt I expect at least 30 here?? While on the other hand the Tenny defense is very average allwoing 30+ to AF and Georgia.

UCLA +14.5 -110 (3x)

Guess I look at this like Oregon and Notre Dame are very similiar teams and venues to play it. If anything I might give the nod to the Oregon defense and this line is a FG higher then last weeks meeting which UCLA hopefully grew from.

Under 44 -105 Michigan & Iowa (3x)

The UM defense continues to improve and become of the elite units. Iowa had trouble at home vs Ohio State and this is a tougher task IMO. With as well as they have played the UM offense hasnt really exploded scoring around 24-28 points during this run. With Manningham unlikely to play I again see a 24ish point performance. Think Iowa might hang here though in a 20-13 type game, this has been a historically tight game and UM keeps falling real close to the ATS number.

North Texas +10.5 -107 (3x)

Over 43 -113 Maryland & NCST (5x)

Over 52 -117 Ohio State (3x)

Army +13 -110 (3x)

Under 51 -133 UCLA (2x)



Looking at :
Missouri -14.5 -102
UTEP +6 -102
Und 45.5 -105 UAB
Under 42 Mid Ten
Under 52 Washington
SDST+14(now +13.5)
Over 49 Auburn
South Car -3.5 -103
Northen Ill -34 (now -33-105)
Nevada over 54 -105 (mow 53.5)
Under 39 Oklahoma (now 39.5)
Iowa +12.5
Under 41.5 Duke / Miami
Over 48.5 Nebraska / Texas
Nebraska +5
Purdue +6.5 / Under 56
Over 53 -110 LSU

Team Totals:
Under 19.5 Rutgers -119 )1x)
Under So Miss +11.5 +103 (2x)
Over 10.5 Temple -108 (1x)
Under 28.5 -116 Michigan (1x)
Over 10.5 -108 Miss St (1x)
Under 14.5 -119 Wash U (1x)
Under 11.5 Stanford +100 (1x)
Under 18.5 Arizona -108 (1x)
Under 26.5 -108 OU (1x)
Under 26.5 +114 Clemson (1x)

Good Luck more work to do....