Thursday Baseball Game 7 NCLS

I have been looking at this game up and down for awhile now. First still aggravated I didnt get to see the total go to 8.5 last nite that UNDER ws money in the bank at that number. Thats life though a missed opportunity.

Lets look at Suppan first. He pitched one of the best games of the postseason following his poor SD performance. The key there I think was the fact that NY lost to STL in Game 2 at home when they could have took some pressure off themselves heading into STL. They had to hop on a plane after watching Wagner blow the game. Next thing they know Traschel is flat and its 5-0 in the bottom of the 2nd inning which wound up as the final. I just think a veteran SP like Suppan threw strikes and with no momentum the Mets were kind of dead and flat. He does have a good track record vs the Mets but those starts have been so spread out and has just one @ Shea in the past 5 years. Suppans worse splits come at nite with a 4.62 ERA and 1.50 WHIp as well as on the road. He was clearly a different SP in the 2nd H with a 2.39 ERA in 42 2/3 inning saway in the 2nd H he allowed 13 runs but only 9 earned(1.90 ERA). That led to a 5-2 Under record in those 7 starts.

Now through the NY lineup he has really only held Shawn Green in check @ 3/24. Delgado is just 6/29 but 10BBs give him a .410 OBP(possibly alot of pitching around him). Beltran is 2/11 and Valentin 12/48 while the rest are 14/40. So my key STAT here is Suppan PITCHING on 5 DAYS REST. This year on 5 days rest his ERA was 4.72 but on extended rest (more then 5 days) it was 3.15. Now his start @ Busch versus NY was on like 7 days rest so maybe something to this. Last season it was 3.11 on 5 days and 3.95 on extended. In 2004 it was 4.30 on 5 days and 3.59 on extended. In 2003 it was 4.93 on 5 days and 3.84 extended. Naturally these are regular season stats and not postseason. My point is it appears that over time he has shown to not be sharp when pitching on what we know as regular rest.

Now Oliver Perez sort of had a similiar situation in Game 4. He was staked a big lead and actually just throw strikes which led to only 1 walk but he did allow 9 hits in 5 + innings(also 3 hrs). Perez is on short rest. Only in 2005 and 2004 had he started on short rest. In 2005 in 2 starts he had a 11.74 ERA in 7 2/3 Inn allowing 10 hits 11er /10 r. in 2004 he made one such start going 5 innings allowing 6 hits and 3earned. So I looked to see how he was on 5 days as compared to extended. Well the starts on 5 days were not flattering . This year on 5 days his ERA was 9.00 and 5.01 on extended. In 2005 it was 5.84 on 5 and 4.70 on extended and its a career long trend...( 2004 3.07 on 5 days and 2.87 on extended , in 2003 5.46 ERA and 5.12 on extended.

Perez has solid numbers vs STL in his career but through the lineup it seems the Cards have decent BAA versus him. He has made 5career starts in his home park vs STL:

7inn 2er
6 2/3 inn 3er
6 Inn 3er
7 Inn 3er
7 inn 2er

To end the regular season STL had lost 9 straight road games in which a LHP started. They finished dropping 14 of the last 17 away games in this situation after starting 6-4 vs LHP. In the postseason on the road they faced Wells and Glavine. Losing 2-0 @ Glavine and winning 2-0 @ Wells. In those 9 losses to conclude the season each time they allowed the opponent to score at least 4 times and 6 of the 9 were UNDERS. Previously the Over was 12-6 when a LHP started and in the postseason its 2-0 Under.

So it seems that I like the over 9 -111 and NYM -119. I just dont know how I am playing this but it wont be all that heavily I dont think at these numbers. The total has value cause mostly we see 9.5 for these teams and SP's. Now we know that Perez will have a short leash BUT what does that mean? As soon as he gives up 2 runs with MOB he is gone? Going to be a situation where the pen again is entrusted in abig situation when and if they pull Oliver early.




Here we go: GOOD LUCK
NYM -119 (6x) & -125 (1x)
Over 9 -103 (4x)
Over 4.5 -111 NYM team (1x)

Slight change in gameplan. The more I look at it the more attractive NY becomes. As I mentioned 3-14 L17 away for STL , 1-12 L13 versus teams with 90 wins. Just one late inning winning @ Shea this year , 37-49 away , well below .500 @ Nite , facing a crazy packed house at Shea against a team that has battled without 2 SP's. having a guy who has 5 or 6 career quality home starts versus the opponent......and the nYM best home record in the NL.

Also be patient on this total. I might just go with team totals here play the STL under and NYM over. I really dont like StL lineup now that I saw it. Encarnacion batting 4th? Taguchi is swinging a good stick and should be playing for him IMO with WIlson in RF. Eck and Rolen banged up to boot. Edmonds at 156 off LHP really takes alot of the life out this StL Lineup. Wilson 1/11 against Oliver. One last note please dont DOUBT Oliver Perez . I have watched him pitch and wathced his post game comments...the kid has confidence and great stuff....its always been about command though....

Guess I am just plain stupid for this over play.....over swing after over swing...sorry