Just looking over my past week in baseball and didnt realize how well I have done. Not much for tracking records just to many plays to keep up with:

MLB:
Sat 3-1 +8.
Fri 7-0 +19.32
Thurs 0-1 -3.00
Wed 2-2 -1.26
Tues 2-0 +13.66
Mon xxx
Sun 3-0 +12.00
Thats 17-4 +48.72 since Sunday.

Prior to that Sat 3-4 -2.00 & Parlay -2.
Fri 8-0 +27.00

Not so bad in MLB 28-8 +71.72 in about 8 days! And back to back perfect Fridays!

This week in CFB +20.80 , last week +3
This past MNF +19.89 and Sunday was +14.90

So basically since last Friday 10/6

NFL +34.79 won my 2 huge plays on Carolina and Denver
NCAAF +23.90 won my huge play on Auburn today
MLB +72.72(28-8ATS)

Thats a whopping +131.41 units give or take some.....Thats insane!

Slow start in the NFL so far today....Okay enough chest thumping and patting myself on the back.

Todays Game:

Oliver Perez @ Anthony Reyes

I have to think that the dropoff value wise is fairly significant from Suppan to Reyes especially seing what Suppan has done at home. While there is a dropoff from Traschel to O.Perez cause of the road track records ALOT of that IMO is negetated by the fact STL struggles vs LHP.NY has thrown Glavine twice and Dave Williams versus them this year ...all low scoring NYM wins(believe STL scored 5 runs total in those 3 games). We saw Darren Oliver come in yesterday and give them 6 scoreless innings allowing just 3 hits. We saw David Wells allow just 2 runs in his playoff start vs StL. I think its safe to say StL struggles vs LH.


Now you look at Perez's away numbers and scream...0-7 with a 9+ERA. However his action was limited in a somewhat Met uniform on the road. He was awful in Coors but it Coors and I never really weigh Coors starts in any analysis. Then he went 5 innings @ FLA allowed 4 runs but had 11K's. After shutting out ATL weeks earlier he allowed 6runs in 5 1/3 in ATL. Then he finished with 4 innings and 1 run in WASH. So 2 decent and 2 poor. He allowed 16 runs in 5 innings @ Coors this year also had a road start spurt of 3 games where he was blasted for 23runs in 8 1/3 innings...OUCH(last 2 in Pitt and 1st in NY). So I am saying his stats are poor but also not as bad as they look(49er in 46.1 inns) becomes 26runs in 38 innings...


He has had some success against STL including 2 solid home starts in Pitt this yr versus them but was hit hard in STL. 13 2/3 inns 12 hits and 5runs at home but 5 earned in 5 innings away(10hits and 7runs). The only defense I have is he was facing STL in back to back starts and the first one was solid...Last yr he started twice in STL ole Busch and his Pirates won both. He went 6 innings and allowed 4 runs but the second he was lifted after 1 2/3 innings in the next( so 4 runs in 7 2/3). In 2004 he pitched 3 times against them allowing 7 runs in 20 innings all 3 runs or less and 6 or 7 innings. He won in STL 3-2. Back to 2003 he was hit hard the first time he faced them in STL allowing 5 runs in 4 innings but he rebounded 10 days later at home going 7 allowing just 2 runs. So his track record is decent .


The key bats against LHP are Encarnacion , Pujols , And the rest are so-so. Eck is a soft .280 , Rolen just .259 and he is hurting , while preston Wilson or Taguchi hit about .280. The Cards generally hit better in day games with only 4 guys above 280 at NITE the rest at 252 or below( Rolen , Eck , Encarnacion and Pujols). Indivually there are some decent numbers vs Oliver 5/17 Encarnacion and Taguchi if he plays5/16 Yadier9/24 Rolen9/20 Pujols3/10 Eck3/8 Edmonds1/8 Belliard1/11 Preston WIlson

Lets look at Reyes:First the guy hasnt pitched since my birthday...which you all know is 10/1...(just kidding). He lasted 2/3 innings that start and is even quoted by YahooSports as being somehwat concerened about his command and seems to not know what to expect himself.


Before that he went on 9 /27 so less then an ining or work since 9 /27.Reyes allowed 17 hrs in 85 1/3 innings. He allowed a .278 BAA to LHB with a 1.43 WHIP. At nite with STL only 48-60 he allowed 13 hrs and 35 runs in 57 1/3 innings!

His 1st 4 starts of 2006 were all solid:

25 Innings 14 hits 6 runs 2hrs 6 bb 17 K

Since in 13 starts:

60 1/3 Inn 70 H 42 runs 15 hr 28 bb 55K's.

- All NYM are 280 ++ vs RHP primarily cause of how many LHB they have and Wright is .312 vs RHP.

- All NYM are .274 ++(really 280 outside of Valentin) on the road except Shawn Green.

Play : NYM +121 (5x)


I think there is value in the over since its the same 9.5 as yesterday with a much shakier SP duo. I am just weighing if its better to play the NYM over 4.5 team total. I'll be back with that...Good Luck