Wednesday Thoughts

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StLouis Cardinals -115 (6x) Will add 2x more see -113 now and play Ov 4.5 runs team +113 STL but trying for 4 runs(2x).

When looking at the game 1 matchup I figured that Carpenter facing Maine in Shea was probably worth around -125 maybe -130. So with this price opening around -130 where I feel it should have been and bet down a few cents into what I see as a clearly cheap price. In my opinion a MUST WIN situation doesnt deserve a premium in the price. Its only a motivational angle for a team. The world understand the Mets are backed against a wall but how does that change the game on the field? Does it make a 3-2 splitter easier to hit? It probably does just as much good as bad and you dont how the players respond till the first pitch is thrown.

Which lets take out the SP for a second. The STL Cardinals have a huge edge in playoff experience with there recent success in previous years. NY's best player Delgado has had a great series but has never been in this position before. Truthfully outside of Beltran , Delgado and Valentin recently the NY lineup isnt really producing. Only 3 Mets have Hred led by Carlos and Carlos with 3 each. StL has 7 guys who have Hred including SP Jeff Suppan!! So alot more balanced production from there lineup. LaRussa in my HUMBLE OPINION would be wise to sit Encarnacion tonite and Chose from Met Killer Preston Wilson or Spezio. I am assuming Duncan gets the start in LF tonite. Pujols last 2 games looks better and power hitters are streak orientated..he got one last nite and wouldnt be suprised to see another tonite. So as a team the cards have all the momentum after last nites win and they have the experience factor coupled with a balanced lineup....oh yeah they have Carpenter on the hill. probably even a more rested pen.

Go ahead and knock him for his Game 1 outing . Remember though he wasted a ton of effort battling through his so-so outing vs SD in Game 4 of the ALDS. So a flat performance wasnt all that suprising especially when you take into account how hard he was pushed down the stretch when the Cards were in a tailspin. Maine is a youngster and lets be honest he has medicore stuff which seems even worse in his 2 playoff spots. His fastball seems to barely be touching 90 MPH. he was very hittable in the LAD series and was very wild in the second game of this series. Both times he managed to get away without much damage. Tonite if he puts himself in the same position I dont think he wiggles out. StL was so close to blowing that game wide open yesterday stranding 20 baserunners including a bases loaded 5th inng no out situation where they failed to score. Watching Hernandez and Mota throw I am not that impressed right now. Mota's splitter seems flat and Hernadez seems to be throwing to many splits. STL has to have gained a ton of confidence in beating the Mets ace in Glavine after earlier beating there All Star closer Billy Wagner. For whatever reason it seems throughout the playoffs teams just hit better in the back end of consecutive games.

The way I see it STL has all the edges outside of home field here. How ridiculous is that Glavine was -130/-135 in STL lastnite and Carpenter cant get that same respect versus a worse SP in Maine. Like the over but might not play it was thinking about theteam over for STL but wanted 4 not 4.5...Maine has gone over last 5 of 6 at home...getting solid run support as well as allwoing at least 4 runsin those starts. IMO 8 with the juice on teh over is the fair price here....so I might still bite. Last point is like my YANKEES the Mets seem dependent on one of there worst SP in there biggest game. It always seems like we have Wright or Brown or along that line pitching our elimination games...is John Maine the guy you want pitching your biggest game of 2006 and in the past 6 years?

Good Luck.

Played the NCAAF game its in the other thread..