Its Friday !!! What a relief to have just one game to focus on. The Big East clash of WVU @ UConn!!
I will say the last 2 days have been disappointing in baseball but I feel I was on the right track just my decisions ultimately were wrong in weighing the info at hand. Alot of the data now that I have gone back and looked at it was pointing to an UNDER last nite but I think I focused to heavily on the DAYS REST situation. I felt Oliver Perez was going to pitch well last nite along the lines of 3 runs in 6 innings and basically figured that STL would end up with 4 runs...which why I was thinking of playing Under 4.5 STL team. Being I thought the NYM would win they would need 5 runs minimum to win and I had hoped to get Suppan out early. Which is alos why I entertained the NYM over 4.5 team...which worst case would have given me a split and wash on the totals. Willie Randolph looked alot like Torre IMO last nite. Just letting the game play out instead of making things happen...like sending Floyd to PH in the 9th instead of bunting..Floyd could do alot of wrong in that situation like K but worse with a bum achilles ground in a DP. As well as lets face Floyd didnt have a very good season this year so there IMO was no reason for him to PH. You bunt them over and have Reyes up with 2nd and 3rd...much different situation.. As for leaving Perez in to face Pujols....any baseball observer who knows the game well saw Pujols swinging badly and on his front foot since his 1st inning hit 2 days ago. Which tells you he is jumping atthe ball and that a 95MPH heater up in the zone will be tough for him to handle. its a gutsy call in some ways but I feel a true baseball man sees Pujols swings and sees how well Ollie is pitching and its a no-brainer... Also see how LaRussa sac'd with Belliard to make sure he got that run? Naturally the SP is up next but its a must early on to tie the game up... Bottomline is I weighed the INFO incorrectly and got hurt the brightside is after a 10 day run where I was apprx +150 UNITS I had to eventually give some back. Now lets go forward.
College Football this week...
Weekday Games(played):
Florida Atlantic +8 -101 (2x) +9 -101(1x) Over 19.5 team FAU +103(1x)
Even with the possibility of there top 4 WR's being out I think the Home squad barks here. The WR issue isnt something new and the offense has shown life since switching QB's. ULL is off a huge upset @ Houston and probably laying a bit to much here IMO...
Result : ULL wins 6-0 buts its an FAU ATS win!!! (+2.00)
Under 51 -105 Central Michigan (3x)(now 50 -105)
Under 25 -107 2nd H (1x)
Basically CMU can stop the run but struggles vs the pass. Getsy and Ryan had big yardage games vs them but there running backs did very little to contribute. With BG bulock is a huge part of there offense and if he doesnt get going I envision a low scoring like they had @ Ohio..dont think the hold CMUto 9 points but CMU is not an explosive offense either. They did score alot @ Toledo and Kentucky but they had 2 Pick 6's @ Toledo and versuis Kentucky the fell behind 28-7 early and just thro all dayto catch up. Both played EMU and went UNDER with totals in the high 40's. Expecting something near 24-20..thought this line should have been about 5.5 or 6 so no play...
Result : CMU wins 31-14 and 2nd H is 14-0 (+4.00)
Under 41 -110 Utah & NM (3x) (now under 41 -116)
Under 21.5 -116 2nd H (2x) (24-10 Utah H)
New Mexico _6 -104 (2x)
Do I dare say 2 incompetent offenses with solid defenses? The Utes avg slightily above 300 yards which was aided by games vs SDST and UTAH ST. While NM doesnt average 300 yards per contest!! Bothg of these teams largely benefit from short fields and defensive scores. Last year in Utah when NM pulled off the upset there were 2 defensive scores and 4 TD passes of about 50 yards...gone are Mckarney and Hank Baskett and Utah is without Johnson. Last week NM managed 280 yards but got 39 points!!!!!!!!!! The key here is simply playing good defense but not committing costly turnovers or having defensive scores...if we avoid that this could be 17-13. NM's defense has already been tested ta home by Missouri and UTEP. Would not lay points with Utah on the road so NM makes more sense IMO but will pass...
The only thing I have entertained in the Virginia game is the UNDER UNC 17.5 -114. For the most part they held the Terps O in check keeping them scoreless in the 1st H. Ultimately they had 4 TDS but one was a defensive score and the other a 56 yard run by Lattimore... UNC has not shown bug play ability and they have struggled versus the run and with Sewell being a dual option QB he could present problems. His YPA were over 11 week which is a huge improvement for him. Its hard to predict what UNC team shows up..they really didnt play all that badly vs VaTech , Rutgers and Miami but were poor vs Clemson and USF...outside of Furman the USF game was the only time they topped 16 points.
Result: NM wins 34-31 and 2nd H is NM 24-7(-3.52)
UNC buy +7.5 -120 (2x)
UNC 2nd +3 -105 2nd H (1x)
Just looking at UNC season outside of 2 games Clemson and USF they didnt play all that poorly. Miami's offense didnt do much on them , some costly turnovers vs RU and VaTech killed them. They were like +16 to +20 @ Clemson and Miami places much toughre then UVA. On ething Ilearned is that as improved as UVA is they still dont know how to win and letting that game get away vs Maryland maybe has a hangover efefct they need to ware off after awhile of play. just dont see much offense thinking 20-16 or so..
Result: UVA wins 23-0 and 2ndh 14-0. (-3.45)
Team Totals
Under 24.5 -127 Utah (2x)Lost (-2.54)
Under 17.5 -119 UNC (2x)WON (+2.00)
Friday: WVU @ UConn
Looking at a few things here:
-WVU -12.5 -113 1st Half & possibly the over 24.5 1st Half.
-Under 14.5 -127 UConn team and Over 36.5 +100 WVU team.
FF to today:
- WVU is now -13.5 +101 1st H & Over 24.5 -107
- Under now 12.5 +115 and over 35.5 -111 for WVU.
At first glance you find it hard to believe that WV will have any trouble disposing of Uconn. The Huskies played dual QB threats vs Navy and @ USF Losing 38-16 and 41-17. So its clear the defense has trouble versus these type offenses. What is somewhat scary is that WVU has some time off but its next game is 11/2 vs Louisville...so look ahead is DEFINETLY a concern.
I think most would agree that WVU hasnt exactly been tested competition wise to date. I see there 2 toughest tests being the road games @ Miss State and @ ECU. I dont exactlt see them dominanting those games. They need to 2 TDS in the final 3 minutes to cover vs Miss St including a punt return with 1 minute left. Miss State had 3 drives of 65+ yds , they missed a long FG and threw INTs from the WVU 7 and 27 yd lines...alot of missed opportunities when it was still a 21-7 game. So my main point is two fold. The WVU offense has somewhat struggled on the road but the DEFENSE while posting great opponent ppg numbers can have the ball moved on them.
Now ECU only scored 10 points BUT had 5 drives of 54 + yards and 6 of 34+ in 10 drives. Again they shot themselves in the foot. Whne a 17-7 game they fumbled inside WVU 10 yard line then late down 27-10 they turned it over on downs on the WVU 12 and ended teh game stuck on WVU 4! Again a ton of points left off the board. As well as alot of WVU points coming on short fields which they are deadly on...
I believe WVU allows apprx 43 % conversions on 3rd down this year. I tend to feel that despite a very average showing vs Army the offense has improved under Bonislawski. My evidence is not just the poinst they have scored 21,17 and 16 but the fact they have scored in the 1st and 2nd Q's...10,9 and 14 in the 1st H past 3 games. What has killed them to an extent is the kicking game as Nuzio has lost his job and they are 3 of 9 on FGs and missed a XP or two. missing FGs after moving the ball totally kill momentum and tend to take the wind out of the team and offense. Not to mention when you are a far from a good offense you just cant move the ball at will so drives that end up with zeroes hurt. they missed 3 FG's vs Army and two very makeable ones as soon as Army cut it to 14-7 the offense drove 80 yards for a score. They had the 98 yd TD run and get a fumble on the ensuing kickoff but a miss a 42yarder... , they had teh ball 2nd and 3 on the Army 19 but commit a 15 yd penalty and get knocked back to the 34 and yo guessed it missed a 52yder , early 3rd Q get an INT drive it to the 7 and miss a 25 yd fg!
The key for this game is what it usually is TURNOVERS and timing off the turnovers. It appears that part of Uconns plan is to do its best to keep the ball out of WVU hands. The best defense is offense type game plan. Does the fact that UCONN rallied after kicking 5 players off the team lead to something?? I think Uconn lets Nuzie kick which is the better choice no matter what struggles he has had. The Huskies will be w/o DE Cody Brown . Uconn will be more of a test on the ground then Miss State or ECU IMO....not that there great but Caulley is better IMO then what the others offered.
So in conclusion with Louisville on deck and UConn having homecoming tonite this isnt an ideal spot for WVU. Some will point to last years meeting BUT Bonislawski was not the QB and suprisingly the line ws only -15.5. It was 3rd stringer dan Brown who I believed started. Lets remember that UConn last year beat USF at home 15-10 and lost 30-20 to Louisville with Cantwell @ QB. This is a TON of points to be giving to a team especially under the circumstances...
It comes down to can UConn score 17 points here if they can you need WVU to put up 42 and looking at there 1st 2 road games that has been easy. Looking at last years meeting UConn did zero on offense so clearly that must changebut most of what WVU did on offense was in response to the Huskie offense ineptness.
The first TD came via short punt when UConn was somewhat backed up that was also returned for about 15yds...starting field position the Uconn 39 and WVU scored. After a Huskie FG to make it 7-3 Nuzie kicked the ball out of bounds starting them at the WVU 35. They glided through the Huskie defense and scored so 14-3. The 3rd TD was again a somewhat backed up PUNTER and s short kick to start atthe UConn 35. Again a few plays later its 21-3. Next possession down 21-3 Brockington takes the handoff and fumbles...WVU has the ball at the UConn 2o! Another short field and a relative quick score again 28-3. They have started INSIDE the Huskie 35 on 3 occassions already. Next possession Brown is picked at midfield and its taken down to Huskie 14!! So again another possession deep inside Huskie territory. White scores to make it 35-3 thanks to another short field!! After that they managed a FG and TD late thanks to a 50 yd reception. So the Huskies basically just handed them this game thanks to turnovers which Bonislawski has jsut 1 INT in 3 games and thanks to poor punting which Pavarsis seems to be doing better at statistically.
Tonite:
Connecticut +24 -105 (6x)
Over 12.5 -127 UConn (2x)
UConn 1st H +13.5 -111(1x)
Under 49.5 -110 (1x) missed 50.5!
Teaser (2x)
Over 42.5 / Uconn +29
Working on Saturdays NCAAF card as well as the NFL. Which I start a new thraed for both elaborating on my earlier thoughts. GL all . There has to be alot of disagreeing with this one but I just dont see why this line is above 20...
Friday, October 20, 2006
Thursday, October 19, 2006
Thursday Baseball Game 7 NCLS
I have been looking at this game up and down for awhile now. First still aggravated I didnt get to see the total go to 8.5 last nite that UNDER ws money in the bank at that number. Thats life though a missed opportunity.
Lets look at Suppan first. He pitched one of the best games of the postseason following his poor SD performance. The key there I think was the fact that NY lost to STL in Game 2 at home when they could have took some pressure off themselves heading into STL. They had to hop on a plane after watching Wagner blow the game. Next thing they know Traschel is flat and its 5-0 in the bottom of the 2nd inning which wound up as the final. I just think a veteran SP like Suppan threw strikes and with no momentum the Mets were kind of dead and flat. He does have a good track record vs the Mets but those starts have been so spread out and has just one @ Shea in the past 5 years. Suppans worse splits come at nite with a 4.62 ERA and 1.50 WHIp as well as on the road. He was clearly a different SP in the 2nd H with a 2.39 ERA in 42 2/3 inning saway in the 2nd H he allowed 13 runs but only 9 earned(1.90 ERA). That led to a 5-2 Under record in those 7 starts.
Now through the NY lineup he has really only held Shawn Green in check @ 3/24. Delgado is just 6/29 but 10BBs give him a .410 OBP(possibly alot of pitching around him). Beltran is 2/11 and Valentin 12/48 while the rest are 14/40. So my key STAT here is Suppan PITCHING on 5 DAYS REST. This year on 5 days rest his ERA was 4.72 but on extended rest (more then 5 days) it was 3.15. Now his start @ Busch versus NY was on like 7 days rest so maybe something to this. Last season it was 3.11 on 5 days and 3.95 on extended. In 2004 it was 4.30 on 5 days and 3.59 on extended. In 2003 it was 4.93 on 5 days and 3.84 extended. Naturally these are regular season stats and not postseason. My point is it appears that over time he has shown to not be sharp when pitching on what we know as regular rest.
Now Oliver Perez sort of had a similiar situation in Game 4. He was staked a big lead and actually just throw strikes which led to only 1 walk but he did allow 9 hits in 5 + innings(also 3 hrs). Perez is on short rest. Only in 2005 and 2004 had he started on short rest. In 2005 in 2 starts he had a 11.74 ERA in 7 2/3 Inn allowing 10 hits 11er /10 r. in 2004 he made one such start going 5 innings allowing 6 hits and 3earned. So I looked to see how he was on 5 days as compared to extended. Well the starts on 5 days were not flattering . This year on 5 days his ERA was 9.00 and 5.01 on extended. In 2005 it was 5.84 on 5 and 4.70 on extended and its a career long trend...( 2004 3.07 on 5 days and 2.87 on extended , in 2003 5.46 ERA and 5.12 on extended.
Perez has solid numbers vs STL in his career but through the lineup it seems the Cards have decent BAA versus him. He has made 5career starts in his home park vs STL:
7inn 2er
6 2/3 inn 3er
6 Inn 3er
7 Inn 3er
7 inn 2er
To end the regular season STL had lost 9 straight road games in which a LHP started. They finished dropping 14 of the last 17 away games in this situation after starting 6-4 vs LHP. In the postseason on the road they faced Wells and Glavine. Losing 2-0 @ Glavine and winning 2-0 @ Wells. In those 9 losses to conclude the season each time they allowed the opponent to score at least 4 times and 6 of the 9 were UNDERS. Previously the Over was 12-6 when a LHP started and in the postseason its 2-0 Under.
So it seems that I like the over 9 -111 and NYM -119. I just dont know how I am playing this but it wont be all that heavily I dont think at these numbers. The total has value cause mostly we see 9.5 for these teams and SP's. Now we know that Perez will have a short leash BUT what does that mean? As soon as he gives up 2 runs with MOB he is gone? Going to be a situation where the pen again is entrusted in abig situation when and if they pull Oliver early.
Here we go: GOOD LUCK
NYM -119 (6x) & -125 (1x)
Over 9 -103 (4x)
Over 4.5 -111 NYM team (1x)
Slight change in gameplan. The more I look at it the more attractive NY becomes. As I mentioned 3-14 L17 away for STL , 1-12 L13 versus teams with 90 wins. Just one late inning winning @ Shea this year , 37-49 away , well below .500 @ Nite , facing a crazy packed house at Shea against a team that has battled without 2 SP's. having a guy who has 5 or 6 career quality home starts versus the opponent......and the nYM best home record in the NL.
Also be patient on this total. I might just go with team totals here play the STL under and NYM over. I really dont like StL lineup now that I saw it. Encarnacion batting 4th? Taguchi is swinging a good stick and should be playing for him IMO with WIlson in RF. Eck and Rolen banged up to boot. Edmonds at 156 off LHP really takes alot of the life out this StL Lineup. Wilson 1/11 against Oliver. One last note please dont DOUBT Oliver Perez . I have watched him pitch and wathced his post game comments...the kid has confidence and great stuff....its always been about command though....
Guess I am just plain stupid for this over play.....over swing after over swing...sorry
I have been looking at this game up and down for awhile now. First still aggravated I didnt get to see the total go to 8.5 last nite that UNDER ws money in the bank at that number. Thats life though a missed opportunity.
Lets look at Suppan first. He pitched one of the best games of the postseason following his poor SD performance. The key there I think was the fact that NY lost to STL in Game 2 at home when they could have took some pressure off themselves heading into STL. They had to hop on a plane after watching Wagner blow the game. Next thing they know Traschel is flat and its 5-0 in the bottom of the 2nd inning which wound up as the final. I just think a veteran SP like Suppan threw strikes and with no momentum the Mets were kind of dead and flat. He does have a good track record vs the Mets but those starts have been so spread out and has just one @ Shea in the past 5 years. Suppans worse splits come at nite with a 4.62 ERA and 1.50 WHIp as well as on the road. He was clearly a different SP in the 2nd H with a 2.39 ERA in 42 2/3 inning saway in the 2nd H he allowed 13 runs but only 9 earned(1.90 ERA). That led to a 5-2 Under record in those 7 starts.
Now through the NY lineup he has really only held Shawn Green in check @ 3/24. Delgado is just 6/29 but 10BBs give him a .410 OBP(possibly alot of pitching around him). Beltran is 2/11 and Valentin 12/48 while the rest are 14/40. So my key STAT here is Suppan PITCHING on 5 DAYS REST. This year on 5 days rest his ERA was 4.72 but on extended rest (more then 5 days) it was 3.15. Now his start @ Busch versus NY was on like 7 days rest so maybe something to this. Last season it was 3.11 on 5 days and 3.95 on extended. In 2004 it was 4.30 on 5 days and 3.59 on extended. In 2003 it was 4.93 on 5 days and 3.84 extended. Naturally these are regular season stats and not postseason. My point is it appears that over time he has shown to not be sharp when pitching on what we know as regular rest.
Now Oliver Perez sort of had a similiar situation in Game 4. He was staked a big lead and actually just throw strikes which led to only 1 walk but he did allow 9 hits in 5 + innings(also 3 hrs). Perez is on short rest. Only in 2005 and 2004 had he started on short rest. In 2005 in 2 starts he had a 11.74 ERA in 7 2/3 Inn allowing 10 hits 11er /10 r. in 2004 he made one such start going 5 innings allowing 6 hits and 3earned. So I looked to see how he was on 5 days as compared to extended. Well the starts on 5 days were not flattering . This year on 5 days his ERA was 9.00 and 5.01 on extended. In 2005 it was 5.84 on 5 and 4.70 on extended and its a career long trend...( 2004 3.07 on 5 days and 2.87 on extended , in 2003 5.46 ERA and 5.12 on extended.
Perez has solid numbers vs STL in his career but through the lineup it seems the Cards have decent BAA versus him. He has made 5career starts in his home park vs STL:
7inn 2er
6 2/3 inn 3er
6 Inn 3er
7 Inn 3er
7 inn 2er
To end the regular season STL had lost 9 straight road games in which a LHP started. They finished dropping 14 of the last 17 away games in this situation after starting 6-4 vs LHP. In the postseason on the road they faced Wells and Glavine. Losing 2-0 @ Glavine and winning 2-0 @ Wells. In those 9 losses to conclude the season each time they allowed the opponent to score at least 4 times and 6 of the 9 were UNDERS. Previously the Over was 12-6 when a LHP started and in the postseason its 2-0 Under.
So it seems that I like the over 9 -111 and NYM -119. I just dont know how I am playing this but it wont be all that heavily I dont think at these numbers. The total has value cause mostly we see 9.5 for these teams and SP's. Now we know that Perez will have a short leash BUT what does that mean? As soon as he gives up 2 runs with MOB he is gone? Going to be a situation where the pen again is entrusted in abig situation when and if they pull Oliver early.
Here we go: GOOD LUCK
NYM -119 (6x) & -125 (1x)
Over 9 -103 (4x)
Over 4.5 -111 NYM team (1x)
Slight change in gameplan. The more I look at it the more attractive NY becomes. As I mentioned 3-14 L17 away for STL , 1-12 L13 versus teams with 90 wins. Just one late inning winning @ Shea this year , 37-49 away , well below .500 @ Nite , facing a crazy packed house at Shea against a team that has battled without 2 SP's. having a guy who has 5 or 6 career quality home starts versus the opponent......and the nYM best home record in the NL.
Also be patient on this total. I might just go with team totals here play the STL under and NYM over. I really dont like StL lineup now that I saw it. Encarnacion batting 4th? Taguchi is swinging a good stick and should be playing for him IMO with WIlson in RF. Eck and Rolen banged up to boot. Edmonds at 156 off LHP really takes alot of the life out this StL Lineup. Wilson 1/11 against Oliver. One last note please dont DOUBT Oliver Perez . I have watched him pitch and wathced his post game comments...the kid has confidence and great stuff....its always been about command though....
Guess I am just plain stupid for this over play.....over swing after over swing...sorry
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
Wednesday Thoughts
First I would like to thank all the posters at Cappingthegame.com for there support and compliments. Please feel free to stop and drop me a note or comment here.
StLouis Cardinals -115 (6x) Will add 2x more see -113 now and play Ov 4.5 runs team +113 STL but trying for 4 runs(2x).
When looking at the game 1 matchup I figured that Carpenter facing Maine in Shea was probably worth around -125 maybe -130. So with this price opening around -130 where I feel it should have been and bet down a few cents into what I see as a clearly cheap price. In my opinion a MUST WIN situation doesnt deserve a premium in the price. Its only a motivational angle for a team. The world understand the Mets are backed against a wall but how does that change the game on the field? Does it make a 3-2 splitter easier to hit? It probably does just as much good as bad and you dont how the players respond till the first pitch is thrown.
Which lets take out the SP for a second. The STL Cardinals have a huge edge in playoff experience with there recent success in previous years. NY's best player Delgado has had a great series but has never been in this position before. Truthfully outside of Beltran , Delgado and Valentin recently the NY lineup isnt really producing. Only 3 Mets have Hred led by Carlos and Carlos with 3 each. StL has 7 guys who have Hred including SP Jeff Suppan!! So alot more balanced production from there lineup. LaRussa in my HUMBLE OPINION would be wise to sit Encarnacion tonite and Chose from Met Killer Preston Wilson or Spezio. I am assuming Duncan gets the start in LF tonite. Pujols last 2 games looks better and power hitters are streak orientated..he got one last nite and wouldnt be suprised to see another tonite. So as a team the cards have all the momentum after last nites win and they have the experience factor coupled with a balanced lineup....oh yeah they have Carpenter on the hill. probably even a more rested pen.
Go ahead and knock him for his Game 1 outing . Remember though he wasted a ton of effort battling through his so-so outing vs SD in Game 4 of the ALDS. So a flat performance wasnt all that suprising especially when you take into account how hard he was pushed down the stretch when the Cards were in a tailspin. Maine is a youngster and lets be honest he has medicore stuff which seems even worse in his 2 playoff spots. His fastball seems to barely be touching 90 MPH. he was very hittable in the LAD series and was very wild in the second game of this series. Both times he managed to get away without much damage. Tonite if he puts himself in the same position I dont think he wiggles out. StL was so close to blowing that game wide open yesterday stranding 20 baserunners including a bases loaded 5th inng no out situation where they failed to score. Watching Hernandez and Mota throw I am not that impressed right now. Mota's splitter seems flat and Hernadez seems to be throwing to many splits. STL has to have gained a ton of confidence in beating the Mets ace in Glavine after earlier beating there All Star closer Billy Wagner. For whatever reason it seems throughout the playoffs teams just hit better in the back end of consecutive games.
The way I see it STL has all the edges outside of home field here. How ridiculous is that Glavine was -130/-135 in STL lastnite and Carpenter cant get that same respect versus a worse SP in Maine. Like the over but might not play it was thinking about theteam over for STL but wanted 4 not 4.5...Maine has gone over last 5 of 6 at home...getting solid run support as well as allwoing at least 4 runsin those starts. IMO 8 with the juice on teh over is the fair price here....so I might still bite. Last point is like my YANKEES the Mets seem dependent on one of there worst SP in there biggest game. It always seems like we have Wright or Brown or along that line pitching our elimination games...is John Maine the guy you want pitching your biggest game of 2006 and in the past 6 years?
Good Luck.
Played the NCAAF game its in the other thread..
First I would like to thank all the posters at Cappingthegame.com for there support and compliments. Please feel free to stop and drop me a note or comment here.
StLouis Cardinals -115 (6x) Will add 2x more see -113 now and play Ov 4.5 runs team +113 STL but trying for 4 runs(2x).
When looking at the game 1 matchup I figured that Carpenter facing Maine in Shea was probably worth around -125 maybe -130. So with this price opening around -130 where I feel it should have been and bet down a few cents into what I see as a clearly cheap price. In my opinion a MUST WIN situation doesnt deserve a premium in the price. Its only a motivational angle for a team. The world understand the Mets are backed against a wall but how does that change the game on the field? Does it make a 3-2 splitter easier to hit? It probably does just as much good as bad and you dont how the players respond till the first pitch is thrown.
Which lets take out the SP for a second. The STL Cardinals have a huge edge in playoff experience with there recent success in previous years. NY's best player Delgado has had a great series but has never been in this position before. Truthfully outside of Beltran , Delgado and Valentin recently the NY lineup isnt really producing. Only 3 Mets have Hred led by Carlos and Carlos with 3 each. StL has 7 guys who have Hred including SP Jeff Suppan!! So alot more balanced production from there lineup. LaRussa in my HUMBLE OPINION would be wise to sit Encarnacion tonite and Chose from Met Killer Preston Wilson or Spezio. I am assuming Duncan gets the start in LF tonite. Pujols last 2 games looks better and power hitters are streak orientated..he got one last nite and wouldnt be suprised to see another tonite. So as a team the cards have all the momentum after last nites win and they have the experience factor coupled with a balanced lineup....oh yeah they have Carpenter on the hill. probably even a more rested pen.
Go ahead and knock him for his Game 1 outing . Remember though he wasted a ton of effort battling through his so-so outing vs SD in Game 4 of the ALDS. So a flat performance wasnt all that suprising especially when you take into account how hard he was pushed down the stretch when the Cards were in a tailspin. Maine is a youngster and lets be honest he has medicore stuff which seems even worse in his 2 playoff spots. His fastball seems to barely be touching 90 MPH. he was very hittable in the LAD series and was very wild in the second game of this series. Both times he managed to get away without much damage. Tonite if he puts himself in the same position I dont think he wiggles out. StL was so close to blowing that game wide open yesterday stranding 20 baserunners including a bases loaded 5th inng no out situation where they failed to score. Watching Hernandez and Mota throw I am not that impressed right now. Mota's splitter seems flat and Hernadez seems to be throwing to many splits. STL has to have gained a ton of confidence in beating the Mets ace in Glavine after earlier beating there All Star closer Billy Wagner. For whatever reason it seems throughout the playoffs teams just hit better in the back end of consecutive games.
The way I see it STL has all the edges outside of home field here. How ridiculous is that Glavine was -130/-135 in STL lastnite and Carpenter cant get that same respect versus a worse SP in Maine. Like the over but might not play it was thinking about theteam over for STL but wanted 4 not 4.5...Maine has gone over last 5 of 6 at home...getting solid run support as well as allwoing at least 4 runsin those starts. IMO 8 with the juice on teh over is the fair price here....so I might still bite. Last point is like my YANKEES the Mets seem dependent on one of there worst SP in there biggest game. It always seems like we have Wright or Brown or along that line pitching our elimination games...is John Maine the guy you want pitching your biggest game of 2006 and in the past 6 years?
Good Luck.
Played the NCAAF game its in the other thread..
Tuesday, October 17, 2006
Tuesday Game 5 NCLS
Tonite in STL:
We have Tom Glavine opposing Jeff Weaver
Last time out I rode the NY Mets as I expected a bounce back effort from there offense. Tonite I think all of that momentum they had built during a nice 12-5 win was squashed by the RAIN OUT.Now the first thing I know is this LINE is FAT. How can Glavine be -170 at home where he is terrific to -135 @ STL. This isnt some medicore team that has no home field bias....its the St.Louis Cardinals!! Easy answer is simply NY pounded them last game and they can get away with it as they expect money on NY here. Know your lines...
What the average fan misses here is that Glavine just faced them 5 days ago. Glavine does NOT have great stuff he is location guy who has to 'trick' opposing hitters. Its tough to do that to the same lineup twice in a week IMO. It can be done but its not easy. I think Pujols saying his stuff wasnt very good the first time out was telling IMO. How many times has Pujols talked shit or called someone out to your knowledge?? Not often if your asking me, so I really think Glavine did get somewhat lucky 1st time out and Pujols and the gang will be approaching him differently tonite. Remember I am the guy who has been preaching about the Cardinals struggles against LHP. Well that has to be neutralized when suddenly everyday you are facing a LHP...Game 1 they faced Glavine , Game 3 Darren Oliver pitched 6 innings of relief and then Game 4 they see Oliver Perez..alot of pratice so to speak.... and you saw some better swinsg versus Perez.
What really interests me in this game is the total....The Over 9 -109 (now) to be specific. Why??
Well first Tom Glavine has pitched decent in his last 2 starts @ Busch(both old and new). Just not quite as good as the home starts( Home 0 runs in 14 but away 7 runs in 13.1). Glavine on the road this year had a 4.72 ERA and in 17 starts(NYM was 12-5) he lasted 101 innings. That is a shade under 6 innings on average. With a 1.43 WHIP you know baserunners were plentiful. He allowed 14 Hrs and had a 38-57 walk to K ratio. So he basic road start was 6 innings and 3.18 runs allowed..Also note on the road he received 6 runs of support.
Which if you go start to start from April has been FEAST or famine in support of him:
2 ,1 , 13 , 8 , 7 , 9 , 9 , 6 , 2, , 2 , 4 , 10 , 1 , 0 , 8 , 7 , 13.
Lets examine this:
2- against Matt Cain
1- against John Thomson both April starts
2- against Schilling
2- against Zambrano
4- against Arroyo
1- against Traber( only justification is he is LH & after the Nady deal)
0- against Leiber
So thats 10 of 17 starts with at least 6 runs of support and as you can see it was usually 7 or much more. So they hit when Glavine pitches against medicore SP's...Not suprisingly the OVER is 10-7 on the road in Glavines starts. I think last post I explained how well this teams hit RHP on the road and it showed on Sunday. As well as knowing NY can hit that STL pen which had been pitching over its head recently IMO.
Now Weaver from some reason has been awful at home in both stops(LAA & STL). Since the beginning of Sept he has been a much better SP then though. Still he just seems to be a 6 inning guy at best though.
As a Cardinal his starts read (starting with most recent)
5 2/3 Inn 3 runs
5 Inn 5 runs
7 Inn 1run
6 1/3 Inn 5 runs
7 1/3 Inn 1 run
3 1/3 inn 7 runs
4 inn 6 runs
So quite the improvement from his 1st 2 Cards home starts. He also faced NY 5 days ago and did an impressive job of keeping them in check. Although he has better velocity than Glavine he doesnt have overwhelming stuff either. The Over is 5-2 for Weaver at home with both unders being totals above 9 and the rest all 9's or lower. Weaver gets 5.57 runs of support at home.
His pattern of support:
3 , 8 , 2 , 10 , 0 , 6 , 10
Now the 2 and 0 were also strangely his best pitching performances. So does that mean his run support depends on how well he is pitching?? Probably not just an interesting trend...but I wouldnt expect 2 strong starts in a row vs this Mets lineup..
Now the UMP is Jeff Kellogg. I have to say I cant recall a home plate UMP who sees an average of 316 pitches per game....thats alot of pitches...usually leading SP to tire quicker , exit sooner and batters get deeper counts to hit in. So I would say this benefits the hitters. Some might question his O/U record or 9.84 runs per game I dont weight that heavily. I do know he has called 32 games with a AVG total set of 8.94 when he umps. So his 9.84 average does exceed the avg total of a game he calls. Also interesting is Kellogg has called 4 Glavine starts. All a long , long time ago in 2001 and 1999. However it wa interesting that Glavine lost all 4 and while I dont have the boxscores I assume didnt pitch all that well........Lost 8-1 , Lost 6-1 , Lost 5-2 and Lost 9-0 with ATL. I mention this cause Glavine is clearly a SP who depends heavily on the UMP to expand the zone....a tight zone which 316 pitches per game indicates to me is trouble for him.
So I expect a high scoring affair here and will make the Over my bigger play. However I think there is a TON of value on STL tonite and will also be playing that and peak at the ARL. Going to sit and think about how big I want these plays to be...(along the lines of a 7x & 4x ).
Plays
Over 9 -105 (8x)
STL +128 (5x)
Over 5 +105 1st 5 innings (1x)
Prop
Glavine Over 3 runs allowed +103 (1x)
GL
Tonite in STL:
We have Tom Glavine opposing Jeff Weaver
Last time out I rode the NY Mets as I expected a bounce back effort from there offense. Tonite I think all of that momentum they had built during a nice 12-5 win was squashed by the RAIN OUT.Now the first thing I know is this LINE is FAT. How can Glavine be -170 at home where he is terrific to -135 @ STL. This isnt some medicore team that has no home field bias....its the St.Louis Cardinals!! Easy answer is simply NY pounded them last game and they can get away with it as they expect money on NY here. Know your lines...
What the average fan misses here is that Glavine just faced them 5 days ago. Glavine does NOT have great stuff he is location guy who has to 'trick' opposing hitters. Its tough to do that to the same lineup twice in a week IMO. It can be done but its not easy. I think Pujols saying his stuff wasnt very good the first time out was telling IMO. How many times has Pujols talked shit or called someone out to your knowledge?? Not often if your asking me, so I really think Glavine did get somewhat lucky 1st time out and Pujols and the gang will be approaching him differently tonite. Remember I am the guy who has been preaching about the Cardinals struggles against LHP. Well that has to be neutralized when suddenly everyday you are facing a LHP...Game 1 they faced Glavine , Game 3 Darren Oliver pitched 6 innings of relief and then Game 4 they see Oliver Perez..alot of pratice so to speak.... and you saw some better swinsg versus Perez.
What really interests me in this game is the total....The Over 9 -109 (now) to be specific. Why??
Well first Tom Glavine has pitched decent in his last 2 starts @ Busch(both old and new). Just not quite as good as the home starts( Home 0 runs in 14 but away 7 runs in 13.1). Glavine on the road this year had a 4.72 ERA and in 17 starts(NYM was 12-5) he lasted 101 innings. That is a shade under 6 innings on average. With a 1.43 WHIP you know baserunners were plentiful. He allowed 14 Hrs and had a 38-57 walk to K ratio. So he basic road start was 6 innings and 3.18 runs allowed..Also note on the road he received 6 runs of support.
Which if you go start to start from April has been FEAST or famine in support of him:
2 ,1 , 13 , 8 , 7 , 9 , 9 , 6 , 2, , 2 , 4 , 10 , 1 , 0 , 8 , 7 , 13.
Lets examine this:
2- against Matt Cain
1- against John Thomson both April starts
2- against Schilling
2- against Zambrano
4- against Arroyo
1- against Traber( only justification is he is LH & after the Nady deal)
0- against Leiber
So thats 10 of 17 starts with at least 6 runs of support and as you can see it was usually 7 or much more. So they hit when Glavine pitches against medicore SP's...Not suprisingly the OVER is 10-7 on the road in Glavines starts. I think last post I explained how well this teams hit RHP on the road and it showed on Sunday. As well as knowing NY can hit that STL pen which had been pitching over its head recently IMO.
Now Weaver from some reason has been awful at home in both stops(LAA & STL). Since the beginning of Sept he has been a much better SP then though. Still he just seems to be a 6 inning guy at best though.
As a Cardinal his starts read (starting with most recent)
5 2/3 Inn 3 runs
5 Inn 5 runs
7 Inn 1run
6 1/3 Inn 5 runs
7 1/3 Inn 1 run
3 1/3 inn 7 runs
4 inn 6 runs
So quite the improvement from his 1st 2 Cards home starts. He also faced NY 5 days ago and did an impressive job of keeping them in check. Although he has better velocity than Glavine he doesnt have overwhelming stuff either. The Over is 5-2 for Weaver at home with both unders being totals above 9 and the rest all 9's or lower. Weaver gets 5.57 runs of support at home.
His pattern of support:
3 , 8 , 2 , 10 , 0 , 6 , 10
Now the 2 and 0 were also strangely his best pitching performances. So does that mean his run support depends on how well he is pitching?? Probably not just an interesting trend...but I wouldnt expect 2 strong starts in a row vs this Mets lineup..
Now the UMP is Jeff Kellogg. I have to say I cant recall a home plate UMP who sees an average of 316 pitches per game....thats alot of pitches...usually leading SP to tire quicker , exit sooner and batters get deeper counts to hit in. So I would say this benefits the hitters. Some might question his O/U record or 9.84 runs per game I dont weight that heavily. I do know he has called 32 games with a AVG total set of 8.94 when he umps. So his 9.84 average does exceed the avg total of a game he calls. Also interesting is Kellogg has called 4 Glavine starts. All a long , long time ago in 2001 and 1999. However it wa interesting that Glavine lost all 4 and while I dont have the boxscores I assume didnt pitch all that well........Lost 8-1 , Lost 6-1 , Lost 5-2 and Lost 9-0 with ATL. I mention this cause Glavine is clearly a SP who depends heavily on the UMP to expand the zone....a tight zone which 316 pitches per game indicates to me is trouble for him.
So I expect a high scoring affair here and will make the Over my bigger play. However I think there is a TON of value on STL tonite and will also be playing that and peak at the ARL. Going to sit and think about how big I want these plays to be...(along the lines of a 7x & 4x ).
Plays
Over 9 -105 (8x)
STL +128 (5x)
Over 5 +105 1st 5 innings (1x)
Prop
Glavine Over 3 runs allowed +103 (1x)
GL
Monday, October 16, 2006
Monday Nite Football
Extremely disappointed in my performance yesterday. Yes, I had some bad luck were a couple games could have turned out differently but really that doesnt change they were the wrong plays / sides. Clearly the Seahwaks and Dolphins are what I am referring to and the more info I gather it just seems ridiculous these teams lost ATS. Anyway I am moving on...yesterday is yesterday WIN or LOSE!
THEE Chicago Bears travel to face the Arizona Cardinals
Things to know:
1) Arizona will be christening it new stadium with its first MNF game. So nice motivational edge for the home squad.
2) They have to decide open roof with the possibilty of rain Or closed roof and force the Bears to play in Dome..interesting angle IMO. You could add weather as a factor if its open roof and the ground is wet and you could force an outdoor team to play in a DOME for what I would expect to a loud and rowdy MNF crowd.
3)Matt Leinart played @ CHI in the preseason. Now how do we weigh this if it all. I think it helps him. He entered the game with 5:23 to play in the 2nd Q and was responsible for 16 of the 23 points they scored. While its preseason generally the 3rd preseason game sees the starters go longer. SO while its an assumption I would think that he faced the CHI starting defense for his time in the 2nd Q and probably some of the 3rdQ(ARI scored 10 points in that time). Note that Edge only played early 1st quarter so he wasnt involved.
Read this:
He took over for Kurt Warner in the second quarter and completed 15-of-21 passes for 144 yards and a touchdown."I feel comfortable with the offense for the most part right now," Leinart said. "So they called a lot of stuff, and I just went out there and tried to execute."He entered the game with 5:13 left in the second quarter and completed 12 consecutive passes at one point, while leading the Cardinals (2-1) to a field goal at the end of the first half and a touchdown early in the third quarter.
Leinart completed all six passes on his second possession as the Cardinals drove 54 yards in the final minute of the half, Neil Rackers' field goal extending their lead to 10-6.
After Antrel Rolle intercepted Rex Grossman on the opening possession of the third quarter, Leinart went 4-for-4 as the Cardinals drove 42 yards against the Bears' first-string defense for a touchdown that made it 17-6.
From Denny Green:
Matt had a lot of poise going in there," Green said. "When they gave him time, he stood in there and delivered. When they were all chasing our guys, he stood in there and scrambled for yardage at some key times. He had a good, solid performance."
How do you weigh this??
There is no real way but you have to think playing in Chicago and getting it done even in preseason helps a QB's confidence. You can say he will get pressured but Green said he was able to scramble when the OL broke down...very encouraging IMO.
4) Arizona is second in the NFL in forcing OPPOSING RB's into 10 Fumbles this year...mix in the possibility of a slick ball here .
Lets look at ARIZONA:
Game1: Host SF opened at -7 close at -8.5 /-9. Win 34-27
Points of emphasis:
It appears to me 1st quarter defense is an issue with Zona. Basically they allowed 2 long 1st Q drives (the last carried into the 2ndQ) culminating in SF TDs. After that SF ran 44 plays for 193 yards(4.39 per play ). Actually down 10 against a prevent defense they ran 10 plays for 69 yards..so there was a span from there last TD score till the end of the game where they ran 34 plays an only gained 124 yards (3.65 per play).
Arizona said they were fooled by SF misdirection plays which CHI can use as well tonite. Zona was sloppy with 11 penalties and SF short fields for 10 2nd H points..they did manage to hold SF to 0 for 9 on third down...Gore was really the star with 87 rushing yards and 83 receiving yards...only knock was Gore had 16 c 87 yds but a 32 yard run was most of it.
Game 2 : @ Seattle line was -7 and lost 21-10.
Why I opened the last recap with 1st Q defense issues was because they again allowed 2 1st Q TDS then settled down. In some ways the game wasnt as close as 21-10 but in other ways a couple of breaks might have made it so. Zona missed two long FGS earlier and Sea did lead 21-3 at one point. They did a nice job of containg Alexander 26 c 89 yards. After SEA 1st 2 TDS score they had 9 possesions and only moved the ball on 2 occassions a missed FG drive and late TD drive. Those drives went for 11 plays each and 51 and 80 yards respectably(very solid). The other 7 lasted 27 plays and amassed 41 YARDS!! I didnt count last possession of the 1st H and game as Seattle was just running the clock. So 49 plays for 172 yards isnt very solid....After cutting it 21-10 ARI had the ball inside the SEA 30 but they fumbled with about 9 minutes remaining(could have been a 1 possession game). They again committed 11 penalities and SEA was 6 of 13 on 3rd down.
Game 3 : Host STL laying -5 lose 16-14.
This game they played GOOD 1st defense shutting down and followed that with a strong 4th Q. However bewteen it didnt appear STL had much trouble moving the ball ( 24 plays 182 yds in 2ndQ and 21 plays 142 ayrds in 3rd Q).After grabbing an early 7-0 lead, they got the ball up 7-3 and drove down the field 71 yards but on 3rd and 2 from the STL 13 Warner was picked..so 10 or 14-3 is out the window. STL then takes the ball and Bulger hooks up with Holt a few times and score a TD for a STL 10-7 lead.
Next possesion on the 1st pass Warner is again picked and that leads to an STL FG before half for a 13-7 lead STL...game changed in a blink...STL gets the ball to start the 2nd H and drives all the way downfield but settles for 3 points. ARI drives 81 yards on the ensuing kickoff now down 16-7 and Warner for the 3rd staright possession is PICKED OFF! they were 1st goal at the 2 and James was stoped twice..on 3rd and goal from the 1 another INT!!
Just look at how bad those INTS were...they lead to a STL FG and TD plus took at least 6 points , probably 10 poinst and maybe even 14 ARI points off the board. This time STL again moves the ball but ultimately fumbles and both exchanges punts to close out the 3rd and start the 4th Q. About 12 minutes left ARI drives the length of field and scores a TD making it 16-14. With slightily more then 4 minutes left STL gets the ball back ad attempts to run clock except they FUMBLE again. Now with about 2 minutes to play ARI starts at STL 30 already in game winning FG range.....Inside the red zone with about 1:46 toplay Warner strikes again fumbling.......GAME OVER....clearly ZONA SHOULD HAVE WON!
STL was 6-12 on 3rd down but Jackson had just 62 yards on 24 c. WHich is encouraging since we know CHI's game plan is running the ball and it appears ARI can stop the run.
Week 4 @ ATL catch 7 or so and lose 32-10.The good news was they held ATL to 4 of 14 on 3rd down and had just 4 penalties. The bad news Warner struck again with 4 turnovers(actually2). This game was 12-10 at half and 15-10 midway through the 3rd Quarter. Now the Zona defense allowed 9 points on 3 FGS but it was mainly due to starting field position. Ther 1st 2 drives started at the Zona 23 and 49..so only 6 points is solid and the 3rd FG wasa 50 yarder..To start the 2nd Q ATL drove downfield and was picked right before the End zone and Adrian Wilson went 99 yards for a TD the other way briefly taking the lead. To start the 3rd Q ATL again moved downfield but settled for a FG. Now 15-10 ARI gets the ball back and a few plays into the possession Warner is you guessed PICKED. ATL gets a PICK 6 and scores ...22-10 game. Now 22-10 ARI gets the ball back drives to inside the ATL 30 chews up over 6 minutes and enter the 4th Q. Warner FUMBLES on the ATL 22....next play Norwood takes the handoff and goes 78 yards! 29-10... Still early 4th Q and Warner is out but Leinart fumbles leading to a FG....32-10.....I believe Leinart moved them inside the ATL 30 and was picked on a tipped pass but it really didnt matter as you can see how ARI once agained HANDED OVER a win and at worst an ATS COVER.
They did allow a ton of yards but alot of that was to vick scrambling (101 yards I think) and alot of it Norwood on the 78 yard run. Dunn had 19c for 55yds. Cleary Grossman isnt the scrambling threat Vick is.
Week 5 : Host KC as 3.5 pt dogs and lose late 23-20.
Hard defeat as they led early 14-0. So for the most part they erased there 1st Q defensive struggles after game 2. They held KC to 5 for 14 on 3rd down but manged just 3 for 14 themselves. Impressive was the 16c for 36 yards that LJ had. Although late game his 78 yd run on a screen pass is what put them in FG range for the game winner. Rackers missed a 51 yarder to tie with2 tix left..showing great poise by the youngster.
KC didnt exactly move the ball on offense vs Zona. They used a block punt inside Zonas 10 yd to score there first TD which went a whole 6 yards. Leinart threw a pick in the 4th Q but KC didnt move the ball and settled for a FG. Also in the 1st Q backed up Zona punted and give KC good field position (mid field) which led to ther first FG. So of 23 points they aided them in 13 of them and the last 3 were aided by a LJ rumble on a screen pass...It just seems up 17-3 they never put the nail in the coffin...
So is Arizona your typical 1-4 team? I think clearly not. There defensive seems solid and solid against the run imparticular. What has killed them is volume of turnovers and timing of those turnovers...it seemed almost everyone was deep in the opposition territory.We know Zona has struggled running the ball but Leinart at QB gives them so many more options then Warner who had lead feet like Bledsoe.
CHI did allow 97 yds on 23 c to Moore and Taylor in Minny and Green cracke a 100 in GB although half of those yards came with a big defecit. With all ARI run issues they still have EDGE who can break loose at any moment and CHI is just NOT a shutdown run defense on the road IMO..there good but not great.
Lets also remember that CHI scored just 1 TD on offense and that was to win the game after Minny fumbled and was onlya 37 yard drive. Grossman as I should still will FORCE a pass if pressured IMO. Now you can say CHI shutout GB and didnt allow an offensive score versus Minny but ARI is clearly a much better offense then either even w/o the services of Larry Fitzgerald. I think ARI can score 16 or 17 points here. The key is can they NOT shoot themselves in the foot and with Leinart who has played in big game after big game already @ USC...I would think at worst it wont be disasterous like it was with Warner at QB. Remember that @ GB they scored on a great 49 YD catch by Berrian against a team who clearly cant defend the deep ball see the Eagle game for reference....and Ahmad Carroll's recent release. They had 4 FGS in bewteen there last TD a Punt Return by Hester.
TJ and benson only managed 32c for 97 yards @ GB another solid run defense. While TJ had just 18c for 54 yards @ Minny with Benson getting no touches. Personally I dont feel a need to recap the Bears home games because the Bears arent HOME and if you dont know how awesome there defense is at home you havent paid attention...They beat Det and Buffalo badly...nothing of interest. You know going those teams wont even break 10 points..Now they slaughtered SEA who was w/o Alexander and Stevans. While still working Branch into the mix. That was somewhat impressive but if you watched what STL did this past weekend thru the air vs SEA it really waters it down IMO. Also remember to look at spreads...CHI only -3.....even if they played again this week highest I see that line is -7. SEA was one dimensonal and againnst CHI that doesnt work. I'll heap praise on CHI and say on a neutral field they are 4 pts better then Sea who is basically 4 points better then ARI on a neutral field...that makes CHI 8 points stronger then ARIZONA....but Cards have home field and yes I would THINK that CHI -5 is a much more accurate line tonite then 12 or 13...
Personally I dont see CHI scoring as much here maybe 20 points...thinking 20-16.So I will post my ARIZONA play soon...but it will big and I see +14 @ BoDog now as well as thinking about UNDER 41......Good Luck...feel free to comment...especially if you disagree.
Plays:
Arizona +14 -115 (8x)
ML +660 (1x)
Under 25.5 CHI team +104 (2x)
Under 41-110 (2x)
Under 20.5 +104 1st H (1x)
Zona 1st H ML +360 (1/2x)
GL
Extremely disappointed in my performance yesterday. Yes, I had some bad luck were a couple games could have turned out differently but really that doesnt change they were the wrong plays / sides. Clearly the Seahwaks and Dolphins are what I am referring to and the more info I gather it just seems ridiculous these teams lost ATS. Anyway I am moving on...yesterday is yesterday WIN or LOSE!
THEE Chicago Bears travel to face the Arizona Cardinals
Things to know:
1) Arizona will be christening it new stadium with its first MNF game. So nice motivational edge for the home squad.
2) They have to decide open roof with the possibilty of rain Or closed roof and force the Bears to play in Dome..interesting angle IMO. You could add weather as a factor if its open roof and the ground is wet and you could force an outdoor team to play in a DOME for what I would expect to a loud and rowdy MNF crowd.
3)Matt Leinart played @ CHI in the preseason. Now how do we weigh this if it all. I think it helps him. He entered the game with 5:23 to play in the 2nd Q and was responsible for 16 of the 23 points they scored. While its preseason generally the 3rd preseason game sees the starters go longer. SO while its an assumption I would think that he faced the CHI starting defense for his time in the 2nd Q and probably some of the 3rdQ(ARI scored 10 points in that time). Note that Edge only played early 1st quarter so he wasnt involved.
Read this:
He took over for Kurt Warner in the second quarter and completed 15-of-21 passes for 144 yards and a touchdown."I feel comfortable with the offense for the most part right now," Leinart said. "So they called a lot of stuff, and I just went out there and tried to execute."He entered the game with 5:13 left in the second quarter and completed 12 consecutive passes at one point, while leading the Cardinals (2-1) to a field goal at the end of the first half and a touchdown early in the third quarter.
Leinart completed all six passes on his second possession as the Cardinals drove 54 yards in the final minute of the half, Neil Rackers' field goal extending their lead to 10-6.
After Antrel Rolle intercepted Rex Grossman on the opening possession of the third quarter, Leinart went 4-for-4 as the Cardinals drove 42 yards against the Bears' first-string defense for a touchdown that made it 17-6.
From Denny Green:
Matt had a lot of poise going in there," Green said. "When they gave him time, he stood in there and delivered. When they were all chasing our guys, he stood in there and scrambled for yardage at some key times. He had a good, solid performance."
How do you weigh this??
There is no real way but you have to think playing in Chicago and getting it done even in preseason helps a QB's confidence. You can say he will get pressured but Green said he was able to scramble when the OL broke down...very encouraging IMO.
4) Arizona is second in the NFL in forcing OPPOSING RB's into 10 Fumbles this year...mix in the possibility of a slick ball here .
Lets look at ARIZONA:
Game1: Host SF opened at -7 close at -8.5 /-9. Win 34-27
Points of emphasis:
It appears to me 1st quarter defense is an issue with Zona. Basically they allowed 2 long 1st Q drives (the last carried into the 2ndQ) culminating in SF TDs. After that SF ran 44 plays for 193 yards(4.39 per play ). Actually down 10 against a prevent defense they ran 10 plays for 69 yards..so there was a span from there last TD score till the end of the game where they ran 34 plays an only gained 124 yards (3.65 per play).
Arizona said they were fooled by SF misdirection plays which CHI can use as well tonite. Zona was sloppy with 11 penalties and SF short fields for 10 2nd H points..they did manage to hold SF to 0 for 9 on third down...Gore was really the star with 87 rushing yards and 83 receiving yards...only knock was Gore had 16 c 87 yds but a 32 yard run was most of it.
Game 2 : @ Seattle line was -7 and lost 21-10.
Why I opened the last recap with 1st Q defense issues was because they again allowed 2 1st Q TDS then settled down. In some ways the game wasnt as close as 21-10 but in other ways a couple of breaks might have made it so. Zona missed two long FGS earlier and Sea did lead 21-3 at one point. They did a nice job of containg Alexander 26 c 89 yards. After SEA 1st 2 TDS score they had 9 possesions and only moved the ball on 2 occassions a missed FG drive and late TD drive. Those drives went for 11 plays each and 51 and 80 yards respectably(very solid). The other 7 lasted 27 plays and amassed 41 YARDS!! I didnt count last possession of the 1st H and game as Seattle was just running the clock. So 49 plays for 172 yards isnt very solid....After cutting it 21-10 ARI had the ball inside the SEA 30 but they fumbled with about 9 minutes remaining(could have been a 1 possession game). They again committed 11 penalities and SEA was 6 of 13 on 3rd down.
Game 3 : Host STL laying -5 lose 16-14.
This game they played GOOD 1st defense shutting down and followed that with a strong 4th Q. However bewteen it didnt appear STL had much trouble moving the ball ( 24 plays 182 yds in 2ndQ and 21 plays 142 ayrds in 3rd Q).After grabbing an early 7-0 lead, they got the ball up 7-3 and drove down the field 71 yards but on 3rd and 2 from the STL 13 Warner was picked..so 10 or 14-3 is out the window. STL then takes the ball and Bulger hooks up with Holt a few times and score a TD for a STL 10-7 lead.
Next possesion on the 1st pass Warner is again picked and that leads to an STL FG before half for a 13-7 lead STL...game changed in a blink...STL gets the ball to start the 2nd H and drives all the way downfield but settles for 3 points. ARI drives 81 yards on the ensuing kickoff now down 16-7 and Warner for the 3rd staright possession is PICKED OFF! they were 1st goal at the 2 and James was stoped twice..on 3rd and goal from the 1 another INT!!
Just look at how bad those INTS were...they lead to a STL FG and TD plus took at least 6 points , probably 10 poinst and maybe even 14 ARI points off the board. This time STL again moves the ball but ultimately fumbles and both exchanges punts to close out the 3rd and start the 4th Q. About 12 minutes left ARI drives the length of field and scores a TD making it 16-14. With slightily more then 4 minutes left STL gets the ball back ad attempts to run clock except they FUMBLE again. Now with about 2 minutes to play ARI starts at STL 30 already in game winning FG range.....Inside the red zone with about 1:46 toplay Warner strikes again fumbling.......GAME OVER....clearly ZONA SHOULD HAVE WON!
STL was 6-12 on 3rd down but Jackson had just 62 yards on 24 c. WHich is encouraging since we know CHI's game plan is running the ball and it appears ARI can stop the run.
Week 4 @ ATL catch 7 or so and lose 32-10.The good news was they held ATL to 4 of 14 on 3rd down and had just 4 penalties. The bad news Warner struck again with 4 turnovers(actually2). This game was 12-10 at half and 15-10 midway through the 3rd Quarter. Now the Zona defense allowed 9 points on 3 FGS but it was mainly due to starting field position. Ther 1st 2 drives started at the Zona 23 and 49..so only 6 points is solid and the 3rd FG wasa 50 yarder..To start the 2nd Q ATL drove downfield and was picked right before the End zone and Adrian Wilson went 99 yards for a TD the other way briefly taking the lead. To start the 3rd Q ATL again moved downfield but settled for a FG. Now 15-10 ARI gets the ball back and a few plays into the possession Warner is you guessed PICKED. ATL gets a PICK 6 and scores ...22-10 game. Now 22-10 ARI gets the ball back drives to inside the ATL 30 chews up over 6 minutes and enter the 4th Q. Warner FUMBLES on the ATL 22....next play Norwood takes the handoff and goes 78 yards! 29-10... Still early 4th Q and Warner is out but Leinart fumbles leading to a FG....32-10.....I believe Leinart moved them inside the ATL 30 and was picked on a tipped pass but it really didnt matter as you can see how ARI once agained HANDED OVER a win and at worst an ATS COVER.
They did allow a ton of yards but alot of that was to vick scrambling (101 yards I think) and alot of it Norwood on the 78 yard run. Dunn had 19c for 55yds. Cleary Grossman isnt the scrambling threat Vick is.
Week 5 : Host KC as 3.5 pt dogs and lose late 23-20.
Hard defeat as they led early 14-0. So for the most part they erased there 1st Q defensive struggles after game 2. They held KC to 5 for 14 on 3rd down but manged just 3 for 14 themselves. Impressive was the 16c for 36 yards that LJ had. Although late game his 78 yd run on a screen pass is what put them in FG range for the game winner. Rackers missed a 51 yarder to tie with2 tix left..showing great poise by the youngster.
KC didnt exactly move the ball on offense vs Zona. They used a block punt inside Zonas 10 yd to score there first TD which went a whole 6 yards. Leinart threw a pick in the 4th Q but KC didnt move the ball and settled for a FG. Also in the 1st Q backed up Zona punted and give KC good field position (mid field) which led to ther first FG. So of 23 points they aided them in 13 of them and the last 3 were aided by a LJ rumble on a screen pass...It just seems up 17-3 they never put the nail in the coffin...
So is Arizona your typical 1-4 team? I think clearly not. There defensive seems solid and solid against the run imparticular. What has killed them is volume of turnovers and timing of those turnovers...it seemed almost everyone was deep in the opposition territory.We know Zona has struggled running the ball but Leinart at QB gives them so many more options then Warner who had lead feet like Bledsoe.
CHI did allow 97 yds on 23 c to Moore and Taylor in Minny and Green cracke a 100 in GB although half of those yards came with a big defecit. With all ARI run issues they still have EDGE who can break loose at any moment and CHI is just NOT a shutdown run defense on the road IMO..there good but not great.
Lets also remember that CHI scored just 1 TD on offense and that was to win the game after Minny fumbled and was onlya 37 yard drive. Grossman as I should still will FORCE a pass if pressured IMO. Now you can say CHI shutout GB and didnt allow an offensive score versus Minny but ARI is clearly a much better offense then either even w/o the services of Larry Fitzgerald. I think ARI can score 16 or 17 points here. The key is can they NOT shoot themselves in the foot and with Leinart who has played in big game after big game already @ USC...I would think at worst it wont be disasterous like it was with Warner at QB. Remember that @ GB they scored on a great 49 YD catch by Berrian against a team who clearly cant defend the deep ball see the Eagle game for reference....and Ahmad Carroll's recent release. They had 4 FGS in bewteen there last TD a Punt Return by Hester.
TJ and benson only managed 32c for 97 yards @ GB another solid run defense. While TJ had just 18c for 54 yards @ Minny with Benson getting no touches. Personally I dont feel a need to recap the Bears home games because the Bears arent HOME and if you dont know how awesome there defense is at home you havent paid attention...They beat Det and Buffalo badly...nothing of interest. You know going those teams wont even break 10 points..Now they slaughtered SEA who was w/o Alexander and Stevans. While still working Branch into the mix. That was somewhat impressive but if you watched what STL did this past weekend thru the air vs SEA it really waters it down IMO. Also remember to look at spreads...CHI only -3.....even if they played again this week highest I see that line is -7. SEA was one dimensonal and againnst CHI that doesnt work. I'll heap praise on CHI and say on a neutral field they are 4 pts better then Sea who is basically 4 points better then ARI on a neutral field...that makes CHI 8 points stronger then ARIZONA....but Cards have home field and yes I would THINK that CHI -5 is a much more accurate line tonite then 12 or 13...
Personally I dont see CHI scoring as much here maybe 20 points...thinking 20-16.So I will post my ARIZONA play soon...but it will big and I see +14 @ BoDog now as well as thinking about UNDER 41......Good Luck...feel free to comment...especially if you disagree.
Plays:
Arizona +14 -115 (8x)
ML +660 (1x)
Under 25.5 CHI team +104 (2x)
Under 41-110 (2x)
Under 20.5 +104 1st H (1x)
Zona 1st H ML +360 (1/2x)
GL
Sunday, October 15, 2006
Looking ahead Week 7 NFL and Week 8 NCAAF
Already on:
Buffalo +6 -110
Vikings +7.5 -120
Arizona ML -130(played before MNF started)
Looking at :
KC +5
Just a ridiculous number IMO. KC played like shit but ran into a sleeping giant @ Pitt. I think these teams are basically the same as the 2005 versions and KC won at home as a PK. The key is LJ and the play of the OL here. SD seemed to have trouble slowing the SF offense in the 1st H not sure what changed after halftime. I am not buying into SD as an offensive juggernaut when LT has done little past few games. I know he had 4 TDS last game but there just inside th e10 and handed him the ball against a defense that couldnt slow OAKLAND. Last 4 weeks 21c 71 yds , 13c 36yds , 27c 98yds , 19c 71 yds...not very impressive. KC is a veteran defens that will rebound IMO. Expecting a real low scoring battle here....
Houston +10
Again just ridiculous number. Houston played a good half @ Dallas...only a half but a misleading final. What has Jax done besides the 41-0 game to be 10 pt chalk away? They are 0-2 on the road and I think this number is gigantic. Would Indy even be -10 @ Houston... I'll be on this and see how Jags again battle these defensive injuries. History on the Texans side as well
ATL +1 +102 (now +2.5)
GB +4 -108 (now +4.5) WR woes now
Denver -4.5
Was thinking Denver here since there defense is awesome and the Browns cant stop the run. Just not sure laying -4.5 against an always tough Brown squad is worth it.
Lions +3.5 -104
Played it early then changed my mind when Rogers got suspended since he is there defense. Will revisit later in the week but for now I am off it and washed my play.
Tenny has shown the ability to score on tougher defenses such as Fla , Cal and Georgia. So why shouldnt I expect at least 30 here?? While on the other hand the Tenny defense is very average allwoing 30+ to AF and Georgia.
Under 47 -105 GaTech and Clemson (3x)
Two very solid ACC defenses here. Clemson without Stuckey
UCLA +14.5 -110 (3x)
Looking at :
Missouri -14.5 -102
UTEP +6 -102
Und 45.5 -105 UAB
Under 42 Mid Ten
Under 52 Washington
North Texas +10.5 (PLAYED 3X)
SDST+14(now +13.5)
Over 41.5 Virginia(now 42) gonna pass though
Louisville -17 (now -16.5)
Over 42.5 Maryland (PLAYED @ 43-113 5X)
Tulane +32 / Over 49
South Car -3 (now --4 +100)
Northen Ill -34 (now -33-105)
Wyoming -4
Nevada over 54 -105 (mow 53.5)
Arizona +2.5
Over 59 -111 Ok St & A&M (passing on)
Under 39 Oklahoma (now 39.5)
Over 52.5 Oregon (now 52 -105)
Already on:
Buffalo +6 -110
Vikings +7.5 -120
Arizona ML -130(played before MNF started)
Looking at :
KC +5
Just a ridiculous number IMO. KC played like shit but ran into a sleeping giant @ Pitt. I think these teams are basically the same as the 2005 versions and KC won at home as a PK. The key is LJ and the play of the OL here. SD seemed to have trouble slowing the SF offense in the 1st H not sure what changed after halftime. I am not buying into SD as an offensive juggernaut when LT has done little past few games. I know he had 4 TDS last game but there just inside th e10 and handed him the ball against a defense that couldnt slow OAKLAND. Last 4 weeks 21c 71 yds , 13c 36yds , 27c 98yds , 19c 71 yds...not very impressive. KC is a veteran defens that will rebound IMO. Expecting a real low scoring battle here....
Houston +10
Again just ridiculous number. Houston played a good half @ Dallas...only a half but a misleading final. What has Jax done besides the 41-0 game to be 10 pt chalk away? They are 0-2 on the road and I think this number is gigantic. Would Indy even be -10 @ Houston... I'll be on this and see how Jags again battle these defensive injuries. History on the Texans side as well
ATL +1 +102 (now +2.5)
GB +4 -108 (now +4.5) WR woes now
Denver -4.5
Was thinking Denver here since there defense is awesome and the Browns cant stop the run. Just not sure laying -4.5 against an always tough Brown squad is worth it.
Lions +3.5 -104
Played it early then changed my mind when Rogers got suspended since he is there defense. Will revisit later in the week but for now I am off it and washed my play.
Cincy -3 -115
Think there is alot of overreaction with Cincy. Now they lost Levi Jones but he wasnt a 100% anyway IMO. carolina struggles at time defending the run and has escaped with some narrow wins against TB and Balt who played with Boller @ QB. The key is slowing DeShaun Foster and that is why we need to check wha LBers are healthy for Cincy. This is turning into a must win for Cincy...
NCAAF
Already on:
Over 51 Nebraska and Texas-105 (7x) I think this number could get cheaper cause the UT secondary is looking healthier SO I played Under 51.5 -110 to WASH this play and will wait to see if we get below 50...I dont see it going higher then 52 so its worth the gamble on waiting . Today I see 49.5 as a total so I made a wise decision last nite but not sure I like this OVER anymore.
One thing to watch for is the health of the Texas secondary. Right now I assuming that Brown and Griffin wont be a 100%. If that changes Imight need to rethink this. All you have to do is see how Baylor moved the ball on texas to understand there significance. Nebraska's defense couldnt slow Kansas down at home.....400yards passing allowed and 140 on the ground game. Nebraska at home vs some soft opponents 49 ,56,56,39... Last year OU traveled to Nebraska and won 31-24 but once they started just throwing the ball they moved the offense. Last year the cornhuskers didnt have much of a ground game and it has improved this season.
Weekday Games(played):
Florida Atlantic +8 -101 (2x) +9 -101(1x) Over 19.5 team FAU +103(1x)
Even with the possibility of there top 4 WR's being out I think the Home squad barks here. The WR issue isnt something new and the offense has shown life since switching QB's. ULL is off a huge upset @ Houston and probably laying a bit to much here IMO...
Result : ULL wins 6-0 buts its an FAU ATS win!!! (+2.00)
Under 51 -105 Central Michigan (3x)(now 50 -105)
Under 25 -107 2nd H (1x)
Basically CMU can stop the run but struggles vs the pass. Getsy and Ryan had big yardage games vs them but there running backs did very little to contribute. With BG bulock is a huge part of there offense and if he doesnt get going I envision a low scoring like they had @ Ohio..dont think the hold CMUto 9 points but CMU is not an explosive offense either. They did score alot @ Toledo and Kentucky but they had 2 Pick 6's @ Toledo and versuis Kentucky the fell behind 28-7 early and just thro all dayto catch up. Both played EMU and went UNDER with totals in the high 40's. Expecting something near 24-20..thought this line should have been about 5.5 or 6 so no play...
Under 41 -110 Utah & NM (3x) (now under 41 -116)
Under 21.5 -116 2nd H (2x) (24-10 Utah H)
Do I dare say 2 incompetent offenses with solid defenses? The Utes avg slightily above 300 yards which was aided by games vs SDST and UTAH ST. While NM doesnt average 300 yards per contest!! Bothg of these teams largely benefit from short fields and defensive scores. Last year in Utah when NM pulled off the upset there were 2 defensive scores and 4 TD passes of about 50 yards...gone are Mckarney and Hank Baskett and Utah is without Johnson. Last week NM managed 280 yards but got 39 points!!!!!!!!!! The key here is simply playing good defense but not committing costly turnovers or having defensive scores...if we avoid that this could be 17-13. NM's defense has already been tested ta home by Missouri and UTEP. Would not lay points with Utah on the road so NM makes more sense IMO but will pass...
The only thing I have entertained in the Virginia game is the UNDER UNC 17.5 -114. For the most part they held the Terps O in check keeping them scoreless in the 1st H. Ultimately they had 4 TDS but one was a defensive score and the other a 56 yard run by Lattimore... UNC has not shown bug play ability and they have struggled versus the run and with Sewell being a dual option QB he could present problems. His YPA were over 11 week which is a huge improvement for him. Its hard to predict what UNC team shows up..they really didnt play all that badly vs VaTech , Rutgers and Miami but were poor vs Clemson and USF...outside of Furman the USF game was the only time they topped 16 points.
New Mexico +6 -104 (2x)
With Utah struggle on offense cant back them as chalk ina road conference game that I expect to be low scoring.
UNC buy +7.5 -120 (2x)
UNC 2nd +3 -105 2nd H (1x)
Just looking at UNC season outside of 2 games Clemson and USF they didnt play all that poorly. Miami's offense didnt do much on them , some costly turnovers vs RU and VaTech killed them. They were like +16 to +20 @ Clemson and Miami places much toughre then UVA. On ething Ilearned is that as improved as UVA is they still dont know how to win and letting that game get away vs Maryland maybe has a hangover efefct they need to ware off after awhile of play. just dont see much offense thinking 20-16 or so..
Team Totals
Under 24.5 -127 Utah (2x)
Under 17.5 -119 UNC (2x)
Friday:
Looking at a few things here:
-WVU -12.5 -113 1st Half & possibly the over 24.5 1st Half.
-Under 14.5 -127 UConn team and Over 36.5 +100 WVU team.
Really the Huskies have had trouble scoring and needed a 98 yd run and Punt return to score vs Army. WVU has done well getting out to leads and stopping the run as well as rendering it useless. Only once has WVU not scored 40 this year @ East Carolina.. which they really were killed by 3 Ints as they punted just ONCE.
Saturday :
Under 54.5 -105 Syracuse & Louisville(3x)
The Orangeman did a decent job on defense last year in Louisville and and last home game vs Pitt. The Cards offense was abit out of sync and I am not sure they have the running game to exploit Cuse weakness. The cuse offense still seems to struggle versus any above average defenses see Iowa , Pitt and WVU game. The Cards defense has been real solid at hasnt allowed more then 17 points since the opener....
VaTech -13.5 -110 (3x) & -16.5 -120 (3x)
Simply put you know VaTech is coming out hungry here especially in a TV game at nite off 2 losses . The So Miss offense has looked awful on the road and now we know the line jumped cause RB snesation Damion Fletcher underwent surgery and is OUT. They scored 6 @ Tulsa , 7 @ Florida and 19 @ UCF most thanks to game changing momentum turnovers and UCF defense is very inconsistent!!(see Pitt game). I didnt see them breaking 14 points here and might play a team total as well depending. Tulsa and both UCF should have scored in at least in the high 20's and FLA scored 34 so after 2 straight losses you would expect this VaTech squad to break 30(low before BC was 26 vs GT). The line could seem high but look at it like they were -29 to cincy and -8.5 to GaTech....I would think GaTech is alot better and stronger line value wise then So Miss so the initial 5 pt seperation bewteen the games looks LOW and as I said Cincy was -29 ...
Over 47 -105 Baylor and Kansas -105 (5x)
Both offenses playing well recently. Baylor has played decent defense athome but against TCU , Army and Kansas State. Kansas doesnt seem to be able to defend the pass see Nebraska and Ok State(Shawn Bell for Baylor put up 30+ @ Col & @ Tex). The Kansas offense has been a little inconsistent but played some godd games vs Ok St , @ NEb and @ Toledo.....expecting a shootout.
Over 54 -105 Temple (5x)
Just what the doctor ordered for NIU. Wolfe and Horvath should explode especially since Wolfe was shut down by WMU. The Temple offense continuesto improve and NIU defense isnt very special ....42-14 worst case IMO...
Rice & UCF Over 54.5 -105 (3x)
Both teams seem defensively challenged. UCF has a good offense that just appears to self destruct. You would hope they show up this week after taking last week off against pitt. They have serious issues defending the pass. Rice has put up points against all the teams that arent major schools(UCLA , FSU and Texas) see Houston 30 , Tulane 24 , UAB ,34 and Army 48
Texas Tech ML -130 (3x maybe 5x)
Have to admit I just dont see TT losing 3 straight. Iowa State has done very liitle this year...2 pt win in OT at home vs Toledo , 6 point win vs UNLV at home and a 1 point win over Northen Iowa at home...
Oklahoma State ML -130 (3x maybe 5x)
For me I cant be impressed with A&Ms offense ane the fact they have one true road game and almsot lost @ KU to the backup QB Barrman. Sure Ok State slept through there 1st H this week against KU but with Meier at QB for KU they still silienced everyone in the 2nd H with 42 points. A&M can be thrown on and while they beat Missouri they lost vs TTech and almost vs Army. I look for Bobby reid's excellent 2nd H play to follow over......
GaTech +7.5 -102 (3x)
Think the Jackets luck out again here with Stuckey being OUT just like when they played VaTech without a few key players. GT can stop the run and you have to wonder how effective Clemson can be on offense relying on Proctor and the passing game. thinking Under 47 as Clemson D is very underrated.
Under 48 Northwestern -105 (5x)
Both Mich State and Northwestern have problmes on offense. The Wildcats have been season long while just about every key player including Stanton is banged up or OUT. Both defenses are solid here and I would expect a tough competitive game......
Ball State +4 -107 (4x) ML +156(1x)
While I cant say Ball State impresses me I do think this game shouldbe a Pkem. They caught NIU in a great spot playing its 3d staright away game and won by2...not impressive. They won @ Virginia when that team had QB issues that now seemed solved Sewell running the show. They also lost @ Indiana. They have common opponents in NIU and Indiana....WMU also didnt play well @ Ohio U...
Mississippi +17.5 -109 (5x) & 21 -110 (4x) Big move in this game still think -14 was fair.
I think ARK is getting way to much credit for the wins vs Bama and Auburn. For whatever reason Aubrun was flat and unable to stop the run that day. While Ole Miss will struggle versus the run this spread is ridiculous. MISS has played 3 straight solid games IMO against tough defenses and seem improvement each week. ARK looked horrible on offense in teh 2nd H vs Bama and won on a missed XP. Then agaisnt Auburn they had that early long TD pass where the ball would have been picked if the DB didnt fall and tehy never looked back after that. They just dont have enough balance IMO right now to blow a team out.....game should probablybe -13 if that
Buffalo +17 -110 (2x)now +18
While Buffalo is bad the Ohio U offense can be worse. Avoid turnovers and shortfields and 17 might be a tough number for them to score on there own even against Buffalo.
New Mex State +18.5 -109 (3x) Now +20.5
Figure Hawaii earned the publics trust but B-to -B trips to the States might be taxing. Oh and NM State gave Boise State a game and should do the same here as they can score just cant stop anyone.
Fresno State +32.5 -101(3x)
As good as LSU is and as well as they smoke inferior teams it seems that in 1 week Fresno went from still somewhat respectable to bottomfeeder. play the over as well here. Even a 45-14 blasting gets the jobe done...
Over 42 -125 Ten / Bama (5x)Tenny has shown the ability to score on tougher defenses such as Fla , Cal and Georgia. So why shouldnt I expect at least 30 here?? While on the other hand the Tenny defense is very average allwoing 30+ to AF and Georgia.
Under 47 -105 GaTech and Clemson (3x)
Two very solid ACC defenses here. Clemson without Stuckey
UCLA +14.5 -110 (3x)
Guess I look at this like Oregon and Notre Dame are very similiar teams and venues to play it. If anything I might give the nod to the Oregon defense and this line is a FG higher then last weeks meeting which UCLA hopefully grew from.
Under 44 Michigan & Iowa (3x)The UM defense continues to improve and become of the elite units. Iowa had trouble at home vs Ohio State and this is atoughertask IMO. With as well as tehy have played the UM offense hasnt really exploded scoring around 24-28 points during this run. With Manningham unlikely to play I again see a 24ish point performance. Think Iowa might hang here though in a 20-13 type game, this has been a historically tight game and UM keeps falling real close to the ATS number.
Looking at :
Missouri -14.5 -102
UTEP +6 -102
Und 45.5 -105 UAB
Under 42 Mid Ten
Under 52 Washington
North Texas +10.5 (PLAYED 3X)
SDST+14(now +13.5)
Over 41.5 Virginia(now 42) gonna pass though
Louisville -17 (now -16.5)
Over 42.5 Maryland (PLAYED @ 43-113 5X)
Tulane +32 / Over 49
South Car -3 (now --4 +100)
Northen Ill -34 (now -33-105)
Wyoming -4
Nevada over 54 -105 (mow 53.5)
Arizona +2.5
Over 59 -111 Ok St & A&M (passing on)
Under 39 Oklahoma (now 39.5)
Over 52.5 Oregon (now 52 -105)
Still looking at this Schedule! GL
Just looking over my past week in baseball and didnt realize how well I have done. Not much for tracking records just to many plays to keep up with:
MLB:
Sat 3-1 +8.
Fri 7-0 +19.32
Thurs 0-1 -3.00
Wed 2-2 -1.26
Tues 2-0 +13.66
Mon xxx
Sun 3-0 +12.00
Thats 17-4 +48.72 since Sunday.
Prior to that Sat 3-4 -2.00 & Parlay -2.
Fri 8-0 +27.00
Not so bad in MLB 28-8 +71.72 in about 8 days! And back to back perfect Fridays!
This week in CFB +20.80 , last week +3
This past MNF +19.89 and Sunday was +14.90
So basically since last Friday 10/6
NFL +34.79 won my 2 huge plays on Carolina and Denver
NCAAF +23.90 won my huge play on Auburn today
MLB +72.72(28-8ATS)
Thats a whopping +131.41 units give or take some.....Thats insane!
Slow start in the NFL so far today....Okay enough chest thumping and patting myself on the back.
Todays Game:
Oliver Perez @ Anthony Reyes
I have to think that the dropoff value wise is fairly significant from Suppan to Reyes especially seing what Suppan has done at home. While there is a dropoff from Traschel to O.Perez cause of the road track records ALOT of that IMO is negetated by the fact STL struggles vs LHP.NY has thrown Glavine twice and Dave Williams versus them this year ...all low scoring NYM wins(believe STL scored 5 runs total in those 3 games). We saw Darren Oliver come in yesterday and give them 6 scoreless innings allowing just 3 hits. We saw David Wells allow just 2 runs in his playoff start vs StL. I think its safe to say StL struggles vs LH.
Now you look at Perez's away numbers and scream...0-7 with a 9+ERA. However his action was limited in a somewhat Met uniform on the road. He was awful in Coors but it Coors and I never really weigh Coors starts in any analysis. Then he went 5 innings @ FLA allowed 4 runs but had 11K's. After shutting out ATL weeks earlier he allowed 6runs in 5 1/3 in ATL. Then he finished with 4 innings and 1 run in WASH. So 2 decent and 2 poor. He allowed 16 runs in 5 innings @ Coors this year also had a road start spurt of 3 games where he was blasted for 23runs in 8 1/3 innings...OUCH(last 2 in Pitt and 1st in NY). So I am saying his stats are poor but also not as bad as they look(49er in 46.1 inns) becomes 26runs in 38 innings...
He has had some success against STL including 2 solid home starts in Pitt this yr versus them but was hit hard in STL. 13 2/3 inns 12 hits and 5runs at home but 5 earned in 5 innings away(10hits and 7runs). The only defense I have is he was facing STL in back to back starts and the first one was solid...Last yr he started twice in STL ole Busch and his Pirates won both. He went 6 innings and allowed 4 runs but the second he was lifted after 1 2/3 innings in the next( so 4 runs in 7 2/3). In 2004 he pitched 3 times against them allowing 7 runs in 20 innings all 3 runs or less and 6 or 7 innings. He won in STL 3-2. Back to 2003 he was hit hard the first time he faced them in STL allowing 5 runs in 4 innings but he rebounded 10 days later at home going 7 allowing just 2 runs. So his track record is decent .
The key bats against LHP are Encarnacion , Pujols , And the rest are so-so. Eck is a soft .280 , Rolen just .259 and he is hurting , while preston Wilson or Taguchi hit about .280. The Cards generally hit better in day games with only 4 guys above 280 at NITE the rest at 252 or below( Rolen , Eck , Encarnacion and Pujols). Indivually there are some decent numbers vs Oliver 5/17 Encarnacion and Taguchi if he plays5/16 Yadier9/24 Rolen9/20 Pujols3/10 Eck3/8 Edmonds1/8 Belliard1/11 Preston WIlson
Lets look at Reyes:First the guy hasnt pitched since my birthday...which you all know is 10/1...(just kidding). He lasted 2/3 innings that start and is even quoted by YahooSports as being somehwat concerened about his command and seems to not know what to expect himself.
Before that he went on 9 /27 so less then an ining or work since 9 /27.Reyes allowed 17 hrs in 85 1/3 innings. He allowed a .278 BAA to LHB with a 1.43 WHIP. At nite with STL only 48-60 he allowed 13 hrs and 35 runs in 57 1/3 innings!
His 1st 4 starts of 2006 were all solid:
25 Innings 14 hits 6 runs 2hrs 6 bb 17 K
Since in 13 starts:
60 1/3 Inn 70 H 42 runs 15 hr 28 bb 55K's.
- All NYM are 280 ++ vs RHP primarily cause of how many LHB they have and Wright is .312 vs RHP.
- All NYM are .274 ++(really 280 outside of Valentin) on the road except Shawn Green.
Play : NYM +121 (5x)
I think there is value in the over since its the same 9.5 as yesterday with a much shakier SP duo. I am just weighing if its better to play the NYM over 4.5 team total. I'll be back with that...Good Luck
MLB:
Sat 3-1 +8.
Fri 7-0 +19.32
Thurs 0-1 -3.00
Wed 2-2 -1.26
Tues 2-0 +13.66
Mon xxx
Sun 3-0 +12.00
Thats 17-4 +48.72 since Sunday.
Prior to that Sat 3-4 -2.00 & Parlay -2.
Fri 8-0 +27.00
Not so bad in MLB 28-8 +71.72 in about 8 days! And back to back perfect Fridays!
This week in CFB +20.80 , last week +3
This past MNF +19.89 and Sunday was +14.90
So basically since last Friday 10/6
NFL +34.79 won my 2 huge plays on Carolina and Denver
NCAAF +23.90 won my huge play on Auburn today
MLB +72.72(28-8ATS)
Thats a whopping +131.41 units give or take some.....Thats insane!
Slow start in the NFL so far today....Okay enough chest thumping and patting myself on the back.
Todays Game:
Oliver Perez @ Anthony Reyes
I have to think that the dropoff value wise is fairly significant from Suppan to Reyes especially seing what Suppan has done at home. While there is a dropoff from Traschel to O.Perez cause of the road track records ALOT of that IMO is negetated by the fact STL struggles vs LHP.NY has thrown Glavine twice and Dave Williams versus them this year ...all low scoring NYM wins(believe STL scored 5 runs total in those 3 games). We saw Darren Oliver come in yesterday and give them 6 scoreless innings allowing just 3 hits. We saw David Wells allow just 2 runs in his playoff start vs StL. I think its safe to say StL struggles vs LH.
Now you look at Perez's away numbers and scream...0-7 with a 9+ERA. However his action was limited in a somewhat Met uniform on the road. He was awful in Coors but it Coors and I never really weigh Coors starts in any analysis. Then he went 5 innings @ FLA allowed 4 runs but had 11K's. After shutting out ATL weeks earlier he allowed 6runs in 5 1/3 in ATL. Then he finished with 4 innings and 1 run in WASH. So 2 decent and 2 poor. He allowed 16 runs in 5 innings @ Coors this year also had a road start spurt of 3 games where he was blasted for 23runs in 8 1/3 innings...OUCH(last 2 in Pitt and 1st in NY). So I am saying his stats are poor but also not as bad as they look(49er in 46.1 inns) becomes 26runs in 38 innings...
He has had some success against STL including 2 solid home starts in Pitt this yr versus them but was hit hard in STL. 13 2/3 inns 12 hits and 5runs at home but 5 earned in 5 innings away(10hits and 7runs). The only defense I have is he was facing STL in back to back starts and the first one was solid...Last yr he started twice in STL ole Busch and his Pirates won both. He went 6 innings and allowed 4 runs but the second he was lifted after 1 2/3 innings in the next( so 4 runs in 7 2/3). In 2004 he pitched 3 times against them allowing 7 runs in 20 innings all 3 runs or less and 6 or 7 innings. He won in STL 3-2. Back to 2003 he was hit hard the first time he faced them in STL allowing 5 runs in 4 innings but he rebounded 10 days later at home going 7 allowing just 2 runs. So his track record is decent .
The key bats against LHP are Encarnacion , Pujols , And the rest are so-so. Eck is a soft .280 , Rolen just .259 and he is hurting , while preston Wilson or Taguchi hit about .280. The Cards generally hit better in day games with only 4 guys above 280 at NITE the rest at 252 or below( Rolen , Eck , Encarnacion and Pujols). Indivually there are some decent numbers vs Oliver 5/17 Encarnacion and Taguchi if he plays5/16 Yadier9/24 Rolen9/20 Pujols3/10 Eck3/8 Edmonds1/8 Belliard1/11 Preston WIlson
Lets look at Reyes:First the guy hasnt pitched since my birthday...which you all know is 10/1...(just kidding). He lasted 2/3 innings that start and is even quoted by YahooSports as being somehwat concerened about his command and seems to not know what to expect himself.
Before that he went on 9 /27 so less then an ining or work since 9 /27.Reyes allowed 17 hrs in 85 1/3 innings. He allowed a .278 BAA to LHB with a 1.43 WHIP. At nite with STL only 48-60 he allowed 13 hrs and 35 runs in 57 1/3 innings!
His 1st 4 starts of 2006 were all solid:
25 Innings 14 hits 6 runs 2hrs 6 bb 17 K
Since in 13 starts:
60 1/3 Inn 70 H 42 runs 15 hr 28 bb 55K's.
- All NYM are 280 ++ vs RHP primarily cause of how many LHB they have and Wright is .312 vs RHP.
- All NYM are .274 ++(really 280 outside of Valentin) on the road except Shawn Green.
Play : NYM +121 (5x)
I think there is value in the over since its the same 9.5 as yesterday with a much shakier SP duo. I am just weighing if its better to play the NYM over 4.5 team total. I'll be back with that...Good Luck
Saturday, October 14, 2006
Sunday NFL
Kansas City Cheifs +7.5 -120 (3x)
We see that Pittsburgh has lost three straight and really is desperate here. A scary situation to be fading the home squad. I do have reasons though. First Big Ben is just not right and you can tell by his TD to INT ratio..clue he has zero TD passes and 7 Ints. Huard has done a good job protecting the ball with no Ints and 5 Td passes.
Injuries are starting to become an issue for Pitt. Already missing Colon on the OL it appears Kendal Simmons (RG) will sit out. The secondary already without Colcough will miss starting corner Deshea Townshend. The LB crew will be w/o JoeyPorter and his backup Harrison. Certainly not good news when you face an offense that is about running the ball and throwing to its TE.
Pittsburghhas done a good job shutting down RB's but opposing QB's have been able to throw the ball agaisnt them. Culpepper and Leftwich both managed 260 but no Td passes( 3ints). Then Palmer had only 190 yards but 4 TDS and last week Rivers came out his shell for 240 yards. With how Huard has played poised you would expect he should play fairly well. The OL was a concern last week but it looks like Turley will play as he has praticed. LJ appears okay after the facemask play and is part of the passing game as well. One sure spot is Dante Hall might miss here and we know the type of weapon is he.
Had to think that even the smell of desperation wont keep KC from continuing to play solid defense. Leinart had a big play to Boldin and some late yardage that came in prevent defense. Edge had 24 c 71yds. Earlier @ Denver they allowed 29c 113 yds to the Bell boyz. They really played well @ Denver and have every game since the flat opener which the D did show up.
My guess is at this time the line should be Pitt -4.5 not any higher . Arnold Harrison will start in Porter's place his first and his backup wil be Rian Wallace who never played LB in an NFL game. Also Pitt signed Chad Brown who wil be getting a crash course and be in the mix. You just wonder what type of shape he is in.
San Fran 49ers +10.5 -110 (3x)
I 'll agree that SD is very good. However are they better then Philly won was -6 @ SF? I dont think so. There was an interesting point in that PHI game as well. Eagles jumped out on SF early with some big plays just aboutto make it 24-10 the 49ers fumbled on the 1 and saw Mike Patterson RUMBLE the distance the other way...making there 24-10 game 31-3...which SF then scored 2 fairly quick TDs to make it 31-17 ...would it have worked out the same if Philly hadnt forced the fumble and SF scored? Meaning would it have been 24 up at one point?? We cant answer that. It shows you SF can move the ball versus a good defense and has heart. SD tends to be conservative and the fact they were on national TV beating Pitt defeinetly juiced this line up IMO. There arent many key injuries to speak of. Well SF will be w/o 2 OL jennings and Allen but there replacements have looked fine. Vernon Davis is out but Eric Johnson is capable. One that is the key though is Walt Harris. SF has been happy with its corner play but not its safety play and talked with Troy Vincent. The loss of Harris is tough to weigh IF he misses . he has played well and its interesting SF nickel back who would start is non other then ex Charger Sammy Davis!! He could be looing to show his old mates something as well as be familiar with some of the routes. If Harris is inactive its possible SF could activate former NFL Europe star BJ Tucker.
I just see SD being to big a chalk here and having to dominante from start to finish to cover which is tough on the road. SD is known for there RUN defense which makes this more interesting since SF needs Gore to play well. SF has managed at least 20 points in every game outside of the shutout @ KC and spanked fellow bottomfeeder Oakland last week. I just maintain that SF has changed its culture and makes for a tough game @ Home...see how well they played aginst TB ,NYG and Indy last year.. They have had trouble slowing the RUn which is obviously SDs game plan with Turner and LT.
Miami Dolphins +3 -120 (8x) ML +119 (2x)
Many of you dont know me very well but I am value guy who likes playing bad lines. This was a bad line IMO. While Miami has fallen way short o expecttaions the NYJ had exceeded them before Jax. However there is no reason why this game is NOT a PKEM. We just saw Miami switch QBs and catch 9 @ NE. If not for some poor turnovers and missed opps on offense it could have been an upset. NY hosted NE catching 6 and was dead for most of the game getting embarrassed. That was until Jerricho cotchery amde his highlight TD catch o run. Not sure what to call it....you know when he got tackled , rolled over on the defender but never got touched down. That sparked the Jets and the crowd from a 24-0 defecit. I hate fading a team coming back from a shutout on the road. However I really like how this Miami defense has played. New Yorks defense is very inconsistent and Ronnie brown should have no trouble running on them. Now NY will struggle to run leaving this on Chad Pennington once again and his star WR is less then 100%.
How good is the Miami D? Its solid and 17 of the 20 NE points came off turnovers andthe other FG followed a Miami missed FG. The Pats TD drives lasted all of 5 plays and 34 yards that how good of field position they were spotted. The bad part is versus a NE defense much tougher then NY but Miami had 2 missed FG's and 2 fumbles and 2 picks! Whats key here is Ronnie Nrown needs a breakout game and NY is basically allowing every team to just run all overthem...check the numbers...NY avs 3.2 yards per carry and Miami allows 2.9 per carry. Which again makes this Penningtons game...Hate the 3rd staright road spot for Miami but the defense is just to goood IMO...
Thinking Arizona and Denver in the other games.
The 1 PM's
Skins -10 -115 (4x)
1st H -6.5 -123 (2x)
We have a few injuries here. First lets remember Tenny had all of 60 yards passing and whatever offense came last week came on the ground(200ydz +). Skins held Jags to 15c and 33 rushing yards. Tenny has been without David Givens and Bennett is questionable in addition to Kinney being done for the year. White has been battling the flu(brown is already out)and there Kicker Bironas has a sore groin. On the OL Pillar is already out and Olsen is questionable.
Bottomline is I dont see much if any offense from Tenny. This line is at least 3 points lower if last week doesnt happen the way it did Skins will score in the twenties...Huge fact is Tenny also playing 4th road game in 5 weeks after a heartbreaking loss for a young team...
skins should get Springs back but lost there starting DT's but have some depth at that spot.
Seahawks buy -2.5 -110 (now6x from 4x)
I am impressed with STL but not buying into that much. They needed QB fumbles inside the last minute to preserve wins @ Arizona and @ GB. They played a shootout vs DET at home and lost @ SF! Oh yeah they beat Denver which gave them 6 short fields and they still maanged only 6 FGs. They have 2 banged up corners which means Hill has to start and they lost Witherspoon @ LB to injury last week. This offense looked good only vs DET IMO.
Throwing stats and trends out the window here as I just think STL is overrated now. Line is where it should be IMO. going to look for improvement in Seattle and those 3 WR sets should cause havoc with a team shorthanded@ CB. Witherspoon loss is probably irreplacable.
Saints +3.5 -110 (4x)
Stats thrown out the window here. Like NO in the spot after Phillys GOY. The Saints can be run on BUT Westbrook still appears less then 100% and Stallworth is OUT. I thought Philly was really lucky with some poor safety play but NO lost a safety this week (Stoutmire will start). philly secondary still banged up some. Thought this game should have beem closer to a PK(like -1.5 PHI). Philly has been successful throwing the ball and Saints only allowing about a 150 per game. The atmosphere always seems to be insane now.
The running duo of Deuce and Bush are making it happen. SF an Hosuton arent exactly tests
Bucs +5.5 -110 (4x) & Cincy -4-108 (1x) got nervous
Cincy is banged up on there OL and @ WR. There LB crew is depleted to say the least and Dexter Jackson is out again. TB will pound cadillac and the other backs and let Gradkowski manage the game. Palmer has struggled with mobility taking sacks and turning the ball over with fumbles and INTS.
Not sure after Rudi struggled @ Pitt they will establish a running game here.
Whats going on this morning??
Probably most comfortable with seattle and Washington but being cautious could bump to 5x though.
The rest:
Lions ML +108 (2x)
I cant recommend going nutz backing a banged up winless team facing a team lead by a former coach. However how is this team a dog here? The injuries are a concern but the OL seems okay . Buffalo does a great job competing but they still lack talent in some areas. DET all but dominanted Minnesota in the dome as 6.5 pt dogs were as Buff hosted Minny as -1 and won 17-12. We all recall how DET lost that game last week...2 defensive scores in the final minutes.
You cant say Jauron has much of an edge with Kitna now QB' in this team. Lions have been good against the run and shredded vs the pass. Well thats good news since What you talking bout Willis is there RB and there key offensive weapon. Sorry the Bills lost to the J-E-T-S in Buffalo. They did a nice job as big dogs sneaking up up on conference foes NE and Miami. This isnt conference play , they are big dogs and they have to find someone other then Lee Evans who Dre Bly will blanket to make plays. I actually dont have a problem with Losman at QB...its just Price , Parrish , and Josh Reed have not shown me much. They get Takeo Spikes back but as much as a difference maker he is ...his health level is unknown.
Game IMO should be DET -2.5...Also 2 struggling offenses against average defenses seems to make me think 40.5 is high for this game...possible UNDER play here.
Dallas -12 -110 (2x)
I dont see value in Houston. First there offense hasnt done much. We see they put up 24 USELESS 4th Q points at Indy. Otherwise tehy havent topped 17 and I dont think they do so today. The Dallas D has alot more swagger at home and I think it plays like an ELITE unit at home. You will not run on Dallas and that means they can tee off on Carr and the OL. Think about WASH w/o Portis and realize that Houstons defense wont play as well as WASH...thinking 28-10 here. Also this line looks high but it isnt. Hous was +6 at home vs Philly which turns into -13 on the road. Even though Dallas lost @ Philly I think Dallas is about 2 pts stronger..making -15 fair IMO. After a bad loss DALLAS will respond remember how they dismantled Tenny...thats what Dallas can do....beat up on bad teams..
Remember HOUSTON D allowed 515 yards to Indy.
Giants +3.5 -120 (now3x from 2x)
NY has a tough schedule which can only make them better. Who has ATL played? Carolina w/o Smith , TB in the midst of its struggles , ARI @ home and might have lost if Warner didnt literally give the game away. Oh and they got smoked in NO. NY has not allowed backs to run on them and has had poor pass defense. Well that goes against ATL strengths. IF ATL cant run how will they score?? Even with 32 against Zona mostly gift points this team looks like 17 points is a ceiling.
If you can explain to me how ATL will score please do so...
Still looking at Carolina @ Balt and the U33.5 there.Might entertain the UNDER...wanted 43 though.
More-
Totals
Under 41 -107 Bills (1x)
Under 47 -105 NO (1x)
Under 33.5 -104 Balt (2x)
Team Totals
Under 15 -120 Tenny (1x)
Over 24 -103 Seattle (1x)
Under 26 -111 SD (1x)
TEASER
Skins -11.5 , Broncos -14 and Dallas -13 (3x) 10pt teaser
Kansas City Cheifs +7.5 -120 (3x)
We see that Pittsburgh has lost three straight and really is desperate here. A scary situation to be fading the home squad. I do have reasons though. First Big Ben is just not right and you can tell by his TD to INT ratio..clue he has zero TD passes and 7 Ints. Huard has done a good job protecting the ball with no Ints and 5 Td passes.
Injuries are starting to become an issue for Pitt. Already missing Colon on the OL it appears Kendal Simmons (RG) will sit out. The secondary already without Colcough will miss starting corner Deshea Townshend. The LB crew will be w/o JoeyPorter and his backup Harrison. Certainly not good news when you face an offense that is about running the ball and throwing to its TE.
Pittsburghhas done a good job shutting down RB's but opposing QB's have been able to throw the ball agaisnt them. Culpepper and Leftwich both managed 260 but no Td passes( 3ints). Then Palmer had only 190 yards but 4 TDS and last week Rivers came out his shell for 240 yards. With how Huard has played poised you would expect he should play fairly well. The OL was a concern last week but it looks like Turley will play as he has praticed. LJ appears okay after the facemask play and is part of the passing game as well. One sure spot is Dante Hall might miss here and we know the type of weapon is he.
Had to think that even the smell of desperation wont keep KC from continuing to play solid defense. Leinart had a big play to Boldin and some late yardage that came in prevent defense. Edge had 24 c 71yds. Earlier @ Denver they allowed 29c 113 yds to the Bell boyz. They really played well @ Denver and have every game since the flat opener which the D did show up.
My guess is at this time the line should be Pitt -4.5 not any higher . Arnold Harrison will start in Porter's place his first and his backup wil be Rian Wallace who never played LB in an NFL game. Also Pitt signed Chad Brown who wil be getting a crash course and be in the mix. You just wonder what type of shape he is in.
San Fran 49ers +10.5 -110 (3x)
I 'll agree that SD is very good. However are they better then Philly won was -6 @ SF? I dont think so. There was an interesting point in that PHI game as well. Eagles jumped out on SF early with some big plays just aboutto make it 24-10 the 49ers fumbled on the 1 and saw Mike Patterson RUMBLE the distance the other way...making there 24-10 game 31-3...which SF then scored 2 fairly quick TDs to make it 31-17 ...would it have worked out the same if Philly hadnt forced the fumble and SF scored? Meaning would it have been 24 up at one point?? We cant answer that. It shows you SF can move the ball versus a good defense and has heart. SD tends to be conservative and the fact they were on national TV beating Pitt defeinetly juiced this line up IMO. There arent many key injuries to speak of. Well SF will be w/o 2 OL jennings and Allen but there replacements have looked fine. Vernon Davis is out but Eric Johnson is capable. One that is the key though is Walt Harris. SF has been happy with its corner play but not its safety play and talked with Troy Vincent. The loss of Harris is tough to weigh IF he misses . he has played well and its interesting SF nickel back who would start is non other then ex Charger Sammy Davis!! He could be looing to show his old mates something as well as be familiar with some of the routes. If Harris is inactive its possible SF could activate former NFL Europe star BJ Tucker.
I just see SD being to big a chalk here and having to dominante from start to finish to cover which is tough on the road. SD is known for there RUN defense which makes this more interesting since SF needs Gore to play well. SF has managed at least 20 points in every game outside of the shutout @ KC and spanked fellow bottomfeeder Oakland last week. I just maintain that SF has changed its culture and makes for a tough game @ Home...see how well they played aginst TB ,NYG and Indy last year.. They have had trouble slowing the RUn which is obviously SDs game plan with Turner and LT.
Miami Dolphins +3 -120 (8x) ML +119 (2x)
Many of you dont know me very well but I am value guy who likes playing bad lines. This was a bad line IMO. While Miami has fallen way short o expecttaions the NYJ had exceeded them before Jax. However there is no reason why this game is NOT a PKEM. We just saw Miami switch QBs and catch 9 @ NE. If not for some poor turnovers and missed opps on offense it could have been an upset. NY hosted NE catching 6 and was dead for most of the game getting embarrassed. That was until Jerricho cotchery amde his highlight TD catch o run. Not sure what to call it....you know when he got tackled , rolled over on the defender but never got touched down. That sparked the Jets and the crowd from a 24-0 defecit. I hate fading a team coming back from a shutout on the road. However I really like how this Miami defense has played. New Yorks defense is very inconsistent and Ronnie brown should have no trouble running on them. Now NY will struggle to run leaving this on Chad Pennington once again and his star WR is less then 100%.
How good is the Miami D? Its solid and 17 of the 20 NE points came off turnovers andthe other FG followed a Miami missed FG. The Pats TD drives lasted all of 5 plays and 34 yards that how good of field position they were spotted. The bad part is versus a NE defense much tougher then NY but Miami had 2 missed FG's and 2 fumbles and 2 picks! Whats key here is Ronnie Nrown needs a breakout game and NY is basically allowing every team to just run all overthem...check the numbers...NY avs 3.2 yards per carry and Miami allows 2.9 per carry. Which again makes this Penningtons game...Hate the 3rd staright road spot for Miami but the defense is just to goood IMO...
Thinking Arizona and Denver in the other games.
The 1 PM's
Skins -10 -115 (4x)
1st H -6.5 -123 (2x)
We have a few injuries here. First lets remember Tenny had all of 60 yards passing and whatever offense came last week came on the ground(200ydz +). Skins held Jags to 15c and 33 rushing yards. Tenny has been without David Givens and Bennett is questionable in addition to Kinney being done for the year. White has been battling the flu(brown is already out)and there Kicker Bironas has a sore groin. On the OL Pillar is already out and Olsen is questionable.
Bottomline is I dont see much if any offense from Tenny. This line is at least 3 points lower if last week doesnt happen the way it did Skins will score in the twenties...Huge fact is Tenny also playing 4th road game in 5 weeks after a heartbreaking loss for a young team...
skins should get Springs back but lost there starting DT's but have some depth at that spot.
Seahawks buy -2.5 -110 (now6x from 4x)
I am impressed with STL but not buying into that much. They needed QB fumbles inside the last minute to preserve wins @ Arizona and @ GB. They played a shootout vs DET at home and lost @ SF! Oh yeah they beat Denver which gave them 6 short fields and they still maanged only 6 FGs. They have 2 banged up corners which means Hill has to start and they lost Witherspoon @ LB to injury last week. This offense looked good only vs DET IMO.
Throwing stats and trends out the window here as I just think STL is overrated now. Line is where it should be IMO. going to look for improvement in Seattle and those 3 WR sets should cause havoc with a team shorthanded@ CB. Witherspoon loss is probably irreplacable.
Saints +3.5 -110 (4x)
Stats thrown out the window here. Like NO in the spot after Phillys GOY. The Saints can be run on BUT Westbrook still appears less then 100% and Stallworth is OUT. I thought Philly was really lucky with some poor safety play but NO lost a safety this week (Stoutmire will start). philly secondary still banged up some. Thought this game should have beem closer to a PK(like -1.5 PHI). Philly has been successful throwing the ball and Saints only allowing about a 150 per game. The atmosphere always seems to be insane now.
The running duo of Deuce and Bush are making it happen. SF an Hosuton arent exactly tests
Bucs +5.5 -110 (4x) & Cincy -4-108 (1x) got nervous
Cincy is banged up on there OL and @ WR. There LB crew is depleted to say the least and Dexter Jackson is out again. TB will pound cadillac and the other backs and let Gradkowski manage the game. Palmer has struggled with mobility taking sacks and turning the ball over with fumbles and INTS.
Not sure after Rudi struggled @ Pitt they will establish a running game here.
Whats going on this morning??
Probably most comfortable with seattle and Washington but being cautious could bump to 5x though.
The rest:
Lions ML +108 (2x)
I cant recommend going nutz backing a banged up winless team facing a team lead by a former coach. However how is this team a dog here? The injuries are a concern but the OL seems okay . Buffalo does a great job competing but they still lack talent in some areas. DET all but dominanted Minnesota in the dome as 6.5 pt dogs were as Buff hosted Minny as -1 and won 17-12. We all recall how DET lost that game last week...2 defensive scores in the final minutes.
You cant say Jauron has much of an edge with Kitna now QB' in this team. Lions have been good against the run and shredded vs the pass. Well thats good news since What you talking bout Willis is there RB and there key offensive weapon. Sorry the Bills lost to the J-E-T-S in Buffalo. They did a nice job as big dogs sneaking up up on conference foes NE and Miami. This isnt conference play , they are big dogs and they have to find someone other then Lee Evans who Dre Bly will blanket to make plays. I actually dont have a problem with Losman at QB...its just Price , Parrish , and Josh Reed have not shown me much. They get Takeo Spikes back but as much as a difference maker he is ...his health level is unknown.
Game IMO should be DET -2.5...Also 2 struggling offenses against average defenses seems to make me think 40.5 is high for this game...possible UNDER play here.
Dallas -12 -110 (2x)
I dont see value in Houston. First there offense hasnt done much. We see they put up 24 USELESS 4th Q points at Indy. Otherwise tehy havent topped 17 and I dont think they do so today. The Dallas D has alot more swagger at home and I think it plays like an ELITE unit at home. You will not run on Dallas and that means they can tee off on Carr and the OL. Think about WASH w/o Portis and realize that Houstons defense wont play as well as WASH...thinking 28-10 here. Also this line looks high but it isnt. Hous was +6 at home vs Philly which turns into -13 on the road. Even though Dallas lost @ Philly I think Dallas is about 2 pts stronger..making -15 fair IMO. After a bad loss DALLAS will respond remember how they dismantled Tenny...thats what Dallas can do....beat up on bad teams..
Remember HOUSTON D allowed 515 yards to Indy.
Giants +3.5 -120 (now3x from 2x)
NY has a tough schedule which can only make them better. Who has ATL played? Carolina w/o Smith , TB in the midst of its struggles , ARI @ home and might have lost if Warner didnt literally give the game away. Oh and they got smoked in NO. NY has not allowed backs to run on them and has had poor pass defense. Well that goes against ATL strengths. IF ATL cant run how will they score?? Even with 32 against Zona mostly gift points this team looks like 17 points is a ceiling.
If you can explain to me how ATL will score please do so...
Still looking at Carolina @ Balt and the U33.5 there.Might entertain the UNDER...wanted 43 though.
More-
Totals
Under 41 -107 Bills (1x)
Under 47 -105 NO (1x)
Under 33.5 -104 Balt (2x)
Team Totals
Under 15 -120 Tenny (1x)
Over 24 -103 Seattle (1x)
Under 26 -111 SD (1x)
TEASER
Skins -11.5 , Broncos -14 and Dallas -13 (3x) 10pt teaser
NCAAF
Noon Starts:
- Decided that with Kafka not returning it was best to downgrade Northwestern to 1x from 3x.
- Army +4.5 -110 (1x) & ML +172(1x)
- Iowa -17.5 -110 (3x) will hedge at least 2x
- NCST -2.5 -115(3x)
- Syracuse +25.5 -108 (1x) & Over 48.5 -110 (1x)
- Under 50.5 -102 Wisconsin (1x) waiting though
- Oklahoma -19.5 -105 (1x)
- Navy -2.5 -110 (7x)
- West Michigan +3.5 -115 (3x)
- Oklahoma State +3.5 -120 (5x)
- Tulsa -2-110(1x)
- Texas A&M +2-101 (5x) ML +109(1x)
- Virginia +3.5 -115(3x)
- Colorado +7.5 -120 (1x)
- Michigan State +14.5 -105 (1x)
- Under 52 -105 Oregon (2x)
- E. Mich +11 -105 (2x)
- Wash St +9 -110 (5x)
Lean - Hawaii -4
- Oregon State +10 (1x)
Night
-Lean to Baylor +26.5 , SoMiss -2 , Ill -6 , Ov 40.5 Miami, Over 50 LSU
-Kansas St +10.5 -115 (3x)
Auburn +2 -105 (12x)
Penn State +6 -110 (3x) and Under 41 -110 (3x)
Thats it so far......Questions or comments.......GL
- Really like Northwestern finally returning home getting a team in Purdue coming off games @ ND and Iowa. Purdue will be w/o WR Lymon and I dont like there defense enough to cover a TD chalk in a conference road game. You might say what has the Wildcats done? Thats true and Kafka is out again which scares me. I think there defense has been better then adequate but it games @ Wisky and Penn State its just a matter if time before the defense tires and gets walked on..which seemed to happen in both games recently. The Boliermakers gave up alot of points to some less then flattering teams at home so maybe even Northwestren can show a pulse on offense...basic situation play...
- It just seems that UConn was given much more respect this season they desereved. Being pegged as home favs vs Navy and Wake they lost both SU and have now switched QB's. They played @ Indiana and did not svore on offense. They have owned Army which is a concern but it still looks like enoughg peopel havent caught on to how bad the Huskies have turned out. Army always seems to bark as a dog and put up 62 against VMI last week...Army putting up 62 versus anyone is northworthy...so I'll ride Ross boys as a dog and hope for the best. Uconn as a team has been awful for consecutive weeks following consecutive awful performances on offense vs Indiana and Wake. If your not sure how a team can score its tough to justify laying points with them IMO.
- I hopped on Iowa early after last weeks thrashing off Purdue thinking this should have been 3 TDS. To my suprise everyone agrees. Well its getting awful close to 20 and I might just middle it or two units of it tmrw when it breaks 20. Iowa still has to show consistency and Wisky just a few back thrashed Indiana but only laid 10 in that game..plus the Hoosiers had a huge road win and could be sharper at home...so a play I am on but not recomending as I will hedge it.
- NCST just really love this spot and play at a FG. The Wolfpack managed to hangaround vs BC and make some plays late...it was a rather lucky win. However turn the page and they trailed all nite vs FSU but out played them in the 4th quarter which is different then a team just shooting themselves in the foot constantly. Huge edge in 3 straight at home. Evans look sto be the real deal making some impressive throws vs FSU. I do think Wake will be flat after theer 4thq collapse vs Clemson...24 points in the 4th! There offense has been lackluster all year and expect the same...could be a 5 unit play possibly...
- Just took a shot on the Orangeman hanging around. This line seems awful high for a team off flat road performances. Maryland was only +17 and i dont see much differrence bewteen the two. So thinking Cuse can make WV work for the points and score 14 ++ here..total is now 50.5 though
- Just dont like the Iowa State eoffense and see it putting up 14 points here. OU will look to bounce back versus an inferior opponent and expect a 21-24 pt win..
- The Minnesota offense struggled IMO in home games vs Michigan and Penn State would expect the same thinking 31-17...
- All year I havent believed in navy but I look game by game and see a much tougher slate then RU's. Who I am also convinced is overrated and faded @ USF. the RU offense is all about the ground game and Navy will slow them there forcing Teel to beat them....Navy destroyed RU two years back in this meeting and I have feeling they cruise...
- WMU is getting a good spot here with Northern Illini playing 3 rd straight away. Think WMU defense is solid and Northern is swiss cheese...
- Really shocked that Ok St was a FG dog here at one point expected worse case a PK game. Kansas seems good enough to keep it close but not good enough to win.. Think OSU was penalized for losing to KSU...its tough to win on the road and sometimes the dif bewteen being -2 and getting +2...makes or breaks you...interesting to see if Meier plays what type of rythym he can produce .
just some comments for the early stuff.....and A&M should read + 2-101.....
Stuff regarding my AUBURN play . I said all along it was a bad line....some people agree...
Question: What were the deciding factors that made Auburn the favorite over Florida this week? Also, how much more value will Arkansas carry now that they`ve knocked off a top SEC team?
Answer: I guess that if Auburn would have beaten Arkansas last week, I wouldn’t even have received this question. Anyway, Auburn has a high rated home-field rating and remember that the Tigers closed a 13-point favorite over the Razorbacks. This year at home, Auburn did hold LSU to three points and beat up on Washington State and by the way, Florida has gone to the favorite. As for Arkansas, they played up to their preseason hype versus Auburn. Remember that the Razorbacks are led by a freshman at quarterback who is still going through growing pains. Mustain had a dismal performance against the Tide but Arkansas was still able to prevail. Against Auburn, Arkansas relied on their defense and running game as Mustain just threw the ball 10 times (completed 7 for 87 yards with 1 TD and no interceptions). Let’s put Arkansas in the “momentum” category for now.
Covers Expert Steve Merril has some interesting thoughts. "It didn`t last long as Florida is now a 1-point road favorite," Merril says. "The results last week have obviously affected this line as Auburn would have been at least a 4-point favorite before last week. Arkansas will definitely not carry `more value` now. The exact opposite is true as the upset win will cause their power ratings to rise and there will actually be less value with Arkansas.
Just thought some who doubt my value logic would like to read this
The schedule for today says-
The clean version:
Auburn +2 -105 (12x)
There are more then a few comemnts in my thread about how this is the perfect situational play. Auburn off a bad home loss while Florida 'upset" LSU and the public at home last week. Making a game that IMO should have been Auburn -3 a +2 home dog. Auburn will shutdown the running game off FLA and make Leak and Tebow beat them. I actually dont believe Tebow will get many chances today...
Navy -2.5 -110 (7x)
You look at what Navy has accomplished nd compare that to RU and you have to be impressed. RU was lucky to win @ USF while Navy dismantled UConn and Stanford on the road. RU is getting way tomuch credit for beating Illinois , Ohio U and UNC early whne linesmakers undervalued them.. Navy will run on them and RU will struggle to run the ball meaning Teel and his 14 INT to 4 TD rati will have to make a play...and remember Tucker is OUT so the WRs are thin and he has to rely more on his TE.
5x Plays
Texas A&M +2 -102(also ML +109 1x)
Oklahoma State +3.5 -120
Wash State +9 -110
3xPlays
Kansas State +10.5 -110
Penn State +6 -110
Under 41 -110 Penn State
Virginia +3.5 -115
NCState -2.5 -115
Baylor will be want better then 27
2x Plays
West Michigan +3.5 -115
Eastern mich +11 -108
Under 52 -105 Oregon
1x Plays
Oregon State -110
Mich State +14.5 -105
Colorado +7.5 -120 (shot in the dark)
Tulsa -2-110
Oklahoma -19.5 -108
Under 51 -108 Wisky
Cuse +25.5 -105
Over 48.5 -110 Cuse
Army +4.5 -110 & ML +174
Northwestern +7.5 -110
Middled(3x each side)
Iowa -17.5 and Indiana +20.5-110(each way)
Team Totals (all 1x unless noted)
Over 11.5 -108 Cuse
Under 20.5 -111 Minnesota
Over 17.5-105 Army
under 17.5 -107 Wake Forest
Over 19.5 -108 East Mich +100
Over 30.5 -111 SJST (2x)
Over 10.5 -108 Baylor
Over 38.5 +100 LSU
Over 33.5 -108 Miami
Under 23.5 -120 Michigan
Good Luck the leans are still the same
Baseball
Oakland ML +166 (4x) & ARL +270 (1x)
Personally and some will disagree this line is inflated. One could make an arguement that the books needed a big number to get Oakland dough here. I just feel that its been OAK money all series and the books have to be happy with DET being up 3-0 here. I dont think they needed to trick the betting public. I do think they realized they could jack up the DET ML and still get an even flow. Thats my opinion
Regardless of what the series is , I had liked Haren in this spot. Its true haren does struggle more with RHB . However his key and Oaklands seems to be this:
Haren has a 3.09 Day ERA , 0.97 WHIP and .206 BAA
Oakland is 43-22 day and 116-68 L3 years in Day games
Oak is 72-52 vs RHP and hit Verlander but not the 2 LHP.
Bonderman has trouble with LHB's as they stroke 284 off hime with a1.55 WHIP. This year day starts were rough and you can see the ugliness this has been a career long problem for Jeremy 12-21 with an ERA above 5 .Bradley and Cahvez are a combined 10-25 off Jeremy both other LH's Kotsay and Swisher not so much luck 2- 21. Payton is 3-4 career in clearly limted abs. I have mentioned already how well most A's hit in the day games.......Against Haren not suprisingly the key bats are Polanco and Pudge who are 9 of 22. Basically dismissing situation I really dont understand why this would be -140 or -150 let alone -175. I wish this line could keep rising but it has since backed off could have had OAK @ =169 at one time now just +162...
Over 7.5 +103 (5x)Both teams hit RHP well or better I should say better then LHP ..... A number that is very low IMO....for an AL playoff game...look at what the Game 2 score was RH vs RH..Not sure but I think the weather was slightly better ....Cant see an 8.5 then a 7.5...
Night game :
The Night game....
Cardinals -124 (5x)
Under 9.5 -113 (3x)
I guess my feeling is we get Suppan cheap here. Couple starting points for me were STL laying -110 when Suppan opposed Glavine early May . Going back to Sept 2005 Suppan faced Traschel laying -160. Now clearly I dont think 160 is fair but 140 is IMO. While StL has taken a step back generally Suppan struggled in the old Busch which is not so this year. The Mets have improved from last season but Traschel hasnt. So really to me -140 is fair in this matchup...
Suppan allowed 6 hits and 4 unis in 6 + innings early this year. Suppan didnt turn it around till the break so 1st half starts cant be weighed heavily IMO. Since the break his ERA is 2.39 with a 6-2 record in 15 starts and solid 1.28 WHIP. Now in his career he has pitched well against NY allowing only10 runs (9er) in 35 2/3 innings vs NY and a 3-1 record across 6 starts. This year at home he is 7-2 witha 3.18 ERA , 1.28WHIp , .246 BAA. His nite splits and numbesr vs LHP are less then flattering but remember its been a tale of 2 season...overal numbers dont do him justice. Just like I said his home ERA is 3.18 its much better then that in the 2nd Half and he has gone deep into games 7++.
Against NY's lineup he has done well indivually:
Delgado 6 /29 10 bbs
Beltran 2/11
Green 3/24
Wright 1/4
Loduca 6/16
Reyes 2/6
Endy 5 /14
Valentin 12 /48
So it appears Suppan can keep NY in check. Factor in StL 36-16 L52 at Home vs RHP...
Traschel pitches better on the road then at home. He probably pitched his best game in a 1-0 loss @ STL vs Mulder in May. Actually he struggles more with RHB this year .306 and 1.72 WHIP...
Indivually he has done a good job keeping the Cards in check. Only Pujols at 5/14 with NO Hrs is having success.
Belliard 5/22
Eck 2/10
Edmonds 2/12
Encarnacion 4/24 but would start Preston Wilson if I was LaRussa(8/20 3 Hrs)
Yadier 1/7
Duncan 0/2
Spezio 1/7 or Rolen 10/41
Suppan 2/6 HR
So Traschel does well keeping the cards off balance as well. Thats a good reason to expect fairly solid starts from both. So the 9.5 total is overreaction to yesterday as I think 9 was correct and has precedent.
GL
Noon Starts:
- Decided that with Kafka not returning it was best to downgrade Northwestern to 1x from 3x.
- Army +4.5 -110 (1x) & ML +172(1x)
- Iowa -17.5 -110 (3x) will hedge at least 2x
- NCST -2.5 -115(3x)
- Syracuse +25.5 -108 (1x) & Over 48.5 -110 (1x)
- Under 50.5 -102 Wisconsin (1x) waiting though
- Oklahoma -19.5 -105 (1x)
- Navy -2.5 -110 (7x)
- West Michigan +3.5 -115 (3x)
- Oklahoma State +3.5 -120 (5x)
- Tulsa -2-110(1x)
- Texas A&M +2-101 (5x) ML +109(1x)
- Virginia +3.5 -115(3x)
- Colorado +7.5 -120 (1x)
- Michigan State +14.5 -105 (1x)
- Under 52 -105 Oregon (2x)
- E. Mich +11 -105 (2x)
- Wash St +9 -110 (5x)
Lean - Hawaii -4
- Oregon State +10 (1x)
Night
-Lean to Baylor +26.5 , SoMiss -2 , Ill -6 , Ov 40.5 Miami, Over 50 LSU
-Kansas St +10.5 -115 (3x)
Auburn +2 -105 (12x)
Penn State +6 -110 (3x) and Under 41 -110 (3x)
Thats it so far......Questions or comments.......GL
- Really like Northwestern finally returning home getting a team in Purdue coming off games @ ND and Iowa. Purdue will be w/o WR Lymon and I dont like there defense enough to cover a TD chalk in a conference road game. You might say what has the Wildcats done? Thats true and Kafka is out again which scares me. I think there defense has been better then adequate but it games @ Wisky and Penn State its just a matter if time before the defense tires and gets walked on..which seemed to happen in both games recently. The Boliermakers gave up alot of points to some less then flattering teams at home so maybe even Northwestren can show a pulse on offense...basic situation play...
- It just seems that UConn was given much more respect this season they desereved. Being pegged as home favs vs Navy and Wake they lost both SU and have now switched QB's. They played @ Indiana and did not svore on offense. They have owned Army which is a concern but it still looks like enoughg peopel havent caught on to how bad the Huskies have turned out. Army always seems to bark as a dog and put up 62 against VMI last week...Army putting up 62 versus anyone is northworthy...so I'll ride Ross boys as a dog and hope for the best. Uconn as a team has been awful for consecutive weeks following consecutive awful performances on offense vs Indiana and Wake. If your not sure how a team can score its tough to justify laying points with them IMO.
- I hopped on Iowa early after last weeks thrashing off Purdue thinking this should have been 3 TDS. To my suprise everyone agrees. Well its getting awful close to 20 and I might just middle it or two units of it tmrw when it breaks 20. Iowa still has to show consistency and Wisky just a few back thrashed Indiana but only laid 10 in that game..plus the Hoosiers had a huge road win and could be sharper at home...so a play I am on but not recomending as I will hedge it.
- NCST just really love this spot and play at a FG. The Wolfpack managed to hangaround vs BC and make some plays late...it was a rather lucky win. However turn the page and they trailed all nite vs FSU but out played them in the 4th quarter which is different then a team just shooting themselves in the foot constantly. Huge edge in 3 straight at home. Evans look sto be the real deal making some impressive throws vs FSU. I do think Wake will be flat after theer 4thq collapse vs Clemson...24 points in the 4th! There offense has been lackluster all year and expect the same...could be a 5 unit play possibly...
- Just took a shot on the Orangeman hanging around. This line seems awful high for a team off flat road performances. Maryland was only +17 and i dont see much differrence bewteen the two. So thinking Cuse can make WV work for the points and score 14 ++ here..total is now 50.5 though
- Just dont like the Iowa State eoffense and see it putting up 14 points here. OU will look to bounce back versus an inferior opponent and expect a 21-24 pt win..
- The Minnesota offense struggled IMO in home games vs Michigan and Penn State would expect the same thinking 31-17...
- All year I havent believed in navy but I look game by game and see a much tougher slate then RU's. Who I am also convinced is overrated and faded @ USF. the RU offense is all about the ground game and Navy will slow them there forcing Teel to beat them....Navy destroyed RU two years back in this meeting and I have feeling they cruise...
- WMU is getting a good spot here with Northern Illini playing 3 rd straight away. Think WMU defense is solid and Northern is swiss cheese...
- Really shocked that Ok St was a FG dog here at one point expected worse case a PK game. Kansas seems good enough to keep it close but not good enough to win.. Think OSU was penalized for losing to KSU...its tough to win on the road and sometimes the dif bewteen being -2 and getting +2...makes or breaks you...interesting to see if Meier plays what type of rythym he can produce .
just some comments for the early stuff.....and A&M should read + 2-101.....
Stuff regarding my AUBURN play . I said all along it was a bad line....some people agree...
Question: What were the deciding factors that made Auburn the favorite over Florida this week? Also, how much more value will Arkansas carry now that they`ve knocked off a top SEC team?
Answer: I guess that if Auburn would have beaten Arkansas last week, I wouldn’t even have received this question. Anyway, Auburn has a high rated home-field rating and remember that the Tigers closed a 13-point favorite over the Razorbacks. This year at home, Auburn did hold LSU to three points and beat up on Washington State and by the way, Florida has gone to the favorite. As for Arkansas, they played up to their preseason hype versus Auburn. Remember that the Razorbacks are led by a freshman at quarterback who is still going through growing pains. Mustain had a dismal performance against the Tide but Arkansas was still able to prevail. Against Auburn, Arkansas relied on their defense and running game as Mustain just threw the ball 10 times (completed 7 for 87 yards with 1 TD and no interceptions). Let’s put Arkansas in the “momentum” category for now.
Covers Expert Steve Merril has some interesting thoughts. "It didn`t last long as Florida is now a 1-point road favorite," Merril says. "The results last week have obviously affected this line as Auburn would have been at least a 4-point favorite before last week. Arkansas will definitely not carry `more value` now. The exact opposite is true as the upset win will cause their power ratings to rise and there will actually be less value with Arkansas.
Just thought some who doubt my value logic would like to read this
The schedule for today says-
The clean version:
Auburn +2 -105 (12x)
There are more then a few comemnts in my thread about how this is the perfect situational play. Auburn off a bad home loss while Florida 'upset" LSU and the public at home last week. Making a game that IMO should have been Auburn -3 a +2 home dog. Auburn will shutdown the running game off FLA and make Leak and Tebow beat them. I actually dont believe Tebow will get many chances today...
Navy -2.5 -110 (7x)
You look at what Navy has accomplished nd compare that to RU and you have to be impressed. RU was lucky to win @ USF while Navy dismantled UConn and Stanford on the road. RU is getting way tomuch credit for beating Illinois , Ohio U and UNC early whne linesmakers undervalued them.. Navy will run on them and RU will struggle to run the ball meaning Teel and his 14 INT to 4 TD rati will have to make a play...and remember Tucker is OUT so the WRs are thin and he has to rely more on his TE.
5x Plays
Texas A&M +2 -102(also ML +109 1x)
Oklahoma State +3.5 -120
Wash State +9 -110
3xPlays
Kansas State +10.5 -110
Penn State +6 -110
Under 41 -110 Penn State
Virginia +3.5 -115
NCState -2.5 -115
Baylor will be want better then 27
2x Plays
West Michigan +3.5 -115
Eastern mich +11 -108
Under 52 -105 Oregon
1x Plays
Oregon State -110
Mich State +14.5 -105
Colorado +7.5 -120 (shot in the dark)
Tulsa -2-110
Oklahoma -19.5 -108
Under 51 -108 Wisky
Cuse +25.5 -105
Over 48.5 -110 Cuse
Army +4.5 -110 & ML +174
Northwestern +7.5 -110
Middled(3x each side)
Iowa -17.5 and Indiana +20.5-110(each way)
Team Totals (all 1x unless noted)
Over 11.5 -108 Cuse
Under 20.5 -111 Minnesota
Over 17.5-105 Army
under 17.5 -107 Wake Forest
Over 19.5 -108 East Mich +100
Over 30.5 -111 SJST (2x)
Over 10.5 -108 Baylor
Over 38.5 +100 LSU
Over 33.5 -108 Miami
Under 23.5 -120 Michigan
Good Luck the leans are still the same
Baseball
Oakland ML +166 (4x) & ARL +270 (1x)
Personally and some will disagree this line is inflated. One could make an arguement that the books needed a big number to get Oakland dough here. I just feel that its been OAK money all series and the books have to be happy with DET being up 3-0 here. I dont think they needed to trick the betting public. I do think they realized they could jack up the DET ML and still get an even flow. Thats my opinion
Regardless of what the series is , I had liked Haren in this spot. Its true haren does struggle more with RHB . However his key and Oaklands seems to be this:
Haren has a 3.09 Day ERA , 0.97 WHIP and .206 BAA
Oakland is 43-22 day and 116-68 L3 years in Day games
Oak is 72-52 vs RHP and hit Verlander but not the 2 LHP.
Bonderman has trouble with LHB's as they stroke 284 off hime with a1.55 WHIP. This year day starts were rough and you can see the ugliness this has been a career long problem for Jeremy 12-21 with an ERA above 5 .Bradley and Cahvez are a combined 10-25 off Jeremy both other LH's Kotsay and Swisher not so much luck 2- 21. Payton is 3-4 career in clearly limted abs. I have mentioned already how well most A's hit in the day games.......Against Haren not suprisingly the key bats are Polanco and Pudge who are 9 of 22. Basically dismissing situation I really dont understand why this would be -140 or -150 let alone -175. I wish this line could keep rising but it has since backed off could have had OAK @ =169 at one time now just +162...
Over 7.5 +103 (5x)Both teams hit RHP well or better I should say better then LHP ..... A number that is very low IMO....for an AL playoff game...look at what the Game 2 score was RH vs RH..Not sure but I think the weather was slightly better ....Cant see an 8.5 then a 7.5...
Night game :
The Night game....
Cardinals -124 (5x)
Under 9.5 -113 (3x)
I guess my feeling is we get Suppan cheap here. Couple starting points for me were STL laying -110 when Suppan opposed Glavine early May . Going back to Sept 2005 Suppan faced Traschel laying -160. Now clearly I dont think 160 is fair but 140 is IMO. While StL has taken a step back generally Suppan struggled in the old Busch which is not so this year. The Mets have improved from last season but Traschel hasnt. So really to me -140 is fair in this matchup...
Suppan allowed 6 hits and 4 unis in 6 + innings early this year. Suppan didnt turn it around till the break so 1st half starts cant be weighed heavily IMO. Since the break his ERA is 2.39 with a 6-2 record in 15 starts and solid 1.28 WHIP. Now in his career he has pitched well against NY allowing only10 runs (9er) in 35 2/3 innings vs NY and a 3-1 record across 6 starts. This year at home he is 7-2 witha 3.18 ERA , 1.28WHIp , .246 BAA. His nite splits and numbesr vs LHP are less then flattering but remember its been a tale of 2 season...overal numbers dont do him justice. Just like I said his home ERA is 3.18 its much better then that in the 2nd Half and he has gone deep into games 7++.
Against NY's lineup he has done well indivually:
Delgado 6 /29 10 bbs
Beltran 2/11
Green 3/24
Wright 1/4
Loduca 6/16
Reyes 2/6
Endy 5 /14
Valentin 12 /48
So it appears Suppan can keep NY in check. Factor in StL 36-16 L52 at Home vs RHP...
Traschel pitches better on the road then at home. He probably pitched his best game in a 1-0 loss @ STL vs Mulder in May. Actually he struggles more with RHB this year .306 and 1.72 WHIP...
Indivually he has done a good job keeping the Cards in check. Only Pujols at 5/14 with NO Hrs is having success.
Belliard 5/22
Eck 2/10
Edmonds 2/12
Encarnacion 4/24 but would start Preston Wilson if I was LaRussa(8/20 3 Hrs)
Yadier 1/7
Duncan 0/2
Spezio 1/7 or Rolen 10/41
Suppan 2/6 HR
So Traschel does well keeping the cards off balance as well. Thats a good reason to expect fairly solid starts from both. So the 9.5 total is overreaction to yesterday as I think 9 was correct and has precedent.
GL
Friday, October 13, 2006
Friday Thoughts
Okay well I took a shot with STL last nite but for the second consecutve nite I was kicking myself for my reluctance to bang the total...So think the past 2 days in baseball has -4 units but Tuesday alone was nearly +15...if I am going to lose I like the way it has been...hit the biggies lose the small ones..
I for one thought the Oakland was desperate to win Game2 at home. After all who wants to go down 2-0 and have to face DET in Motown? Not any reasonable person......Is it me or do people just plain not get it. How can you question Kenny Rogers?? I mean they keep saying he pitched the game of his life...ummm didnt they look at his home starts this year? Didnt they realize the Yanks struggle on the road vs LHP?? The way I see it the GAMBLER did what he did all season. He had one minor poor stretch and then striaghten himself out thru adjustments. He has faced Oakland 6 or 7 times past 2 season which sound results IMO. He beat them twice this year and is the same price he was in OAKLAND vs Saarloos...clearly Harden is better but Harden is one huge QUESTION MARK right now. If he was looking so good wouldnt OAK have started hime before they had no choice but to?
Initially I was scared by OAK day record but 4:35 in Motown with the freezing cold isnt exactly DAY BASEBALL IMO...so I am overlooking that.I was suprised that against HArden the very RH lineup of DET was 15 for 38 with 3bbs and 8 Ks...very solid IMO...Last 2 years the only batter to have real success against the Gambler was Payton but he was 0-6 this year after a 7-11 last season. Kendall is a solid 6 for 20 and the Big Hurt who punished kenny back in the day hasnt faced him in 2005 and was 1/4 with a HR this year. So 15-80 for OAK past 2 years vs kenny plus Paytons curious 7/17....I just dont see an edge for Oakland other then Zumaya being hurt.
Rogers had only 3 starts at home where he allowed 4 runs or worse...in 2 of them he went 7 innings and one of those all 4 were unearned....the other was his last start vs LH killing Toronto....otherwise he is 7 innings and 3 runs or less at DETRIOT.
Det 13-4 and 12-4 under with Kenny at home and 8-4 Under in day starts. The A's have faced Johan and Robertson and have produced little on offense in the playoffs. Rich Harden was on a short leash and you dont what the cold weather will do to him...despite being from up North......
Who would u rather be the team playing at home , up 2-0 , with there leader Or being down 2-0 , with an injured SP(less then 100%) and a warm weather team playing in frosty conditions??
Tigers -126 (5x)
Under 8.5 -114 (3x)
Which I am nervous about cause kenny usually had totals of 9 or 9.5...but the weather plays a role......
Under 4 -111 Oakland(1x)
Game II in NY
Okay looking up and down at this game......
Stats arent very useless here as Carpenter did not face NY this season and Maine only once which Pujols put a show on. Tonite STL made switches to Duncan who always plays vs RHP and Spezio who has great away splits.
One thing about 2006 is that Carpenter was not the same shut down SP he normally is. Most ofg his road starts were very average or saw him tire in the 7th and 8th innings allowing some big runs...
How did STL fare after being shutout this season??In happened 8 times they followed the shutouts with :
9,4,6,1,5,6,7,5
Carpenter pitched 3 times the 1-0 win , the 5-1 win and the 6-5 loss which is the last occurence.Now both teams looked crappy at the plate but they also had 4 and 5 days since theer last games...now back to back nites allows a different comfort level.
Carpenter lifetime hasnt had much indivual concern:
Beltran is 4-19 with 2 hrs
Delgado 2-3
Loduca 2/6
Reyes 1/3
The ugly:
Chavez 0/11
Green 0 /8
Valentin 1/15
Wright 0/3 3Ks!
The question is what do we expect from John maine well he did get somewhat lucky his 1st start allwoing just 1 run cause he was hit fairly hard. I think its keys to remember that its likely Darren oliver relieves him if its before the 6th inning.Carpenter may have not been himself on the road this year and he may have thrown a ton of pitches this season but he is ACE in a day where that word has lost its true meaning. So I always expect a big gutsy outing from him come OCTOBER.
Tonite looking at the matchups I think STL has the better lineup with 4 key bats for them ..Pujols , Edmonds , Spezio and Duncan the L3 all LH. For NY obviously reyes, Delgado and Beltran...the later 2 studs only hit 225 at home...Wright could be neutralized facing Carpenter..the trio of Green , Chavez and valentin is 1 for 34 against Carpenter...Know STL as road chalk? Well if John Maine is -140 against Weaver in NY the question from a value standpoint is does the difference bewteen Jeff Weaver and carpenter equal 60 cents or better and I say yes it does probably about 75 cents actually......Maine is an unknown and everyone is down on STL...but me.....
Cardinals -120 (3x)
Over 7.5 +101 (4x)
Over 4 +101 team STL (2x)
Just saw DET won 3-0 so won all plays for +9 units...so basically rolling that over ...
NCAAF-
I just keep looking at Pitt's schedule and amazing how poor the offenses that they played are. You get Virginia at home and a trip to Cincy. You host Toledo with a QB injury and you play the Citadel before traveling to Cuse who fumbled 3 times! They played one decent team and were smoked at home by Mich State before they had started falling to pieces...
UCF can be thrown on...and Palko will but UCF can also move the ball and Kevin Smith is there key as well as not making silly turnovers....Scary but this is Pitts 2nd toughest game IMO.......
Over 47 -109 (2x)
UCF over 18.5 -107 (3x)
UCF +10.5 -107 (3x)
I think the fact UCF finally broke there losing streak is key here as they were so tough at home last season. Plus they get extended rest while Pitt gets the short week with RU on deck.....
Expect both in the 20's and maybe even 30's could be alot of big plays.....
Good Luck!
GL
Okay well I took a shot with STL last nite but for the second consecutve nite I was kicking myself for my reluctance to bang the total...So think the past 2 days in baseball has -4 units but Tuesday alone was nearly +15...if I am going to lose I like the way it has been...hit the biggies lose the small ones..
I for one thought the Oakland was desperate to win Game2 at home. After all who wants to go down 2-0 and have to face DET in Motown? Not any reasonable person......Is it me or do people just plain not get it. How can you question Kenny Rogers?? I mean they keep saying he pitched the game of his life...ummm didnt they look at his home starts this year? Didnt they realize the Yanks struggle on the road vs LHP?? The way I see it the GAMBLER did what he did all season. He had one minor poor stretch and then striaghten himself out thru adjustments. He has faced Oakland 6 or 7 times past 2 season which sound results IMO. He beat them twice this year and is the same price he was in OAKLAND vs Saarloos...clearly Harden is better but Harden is one huge QUESTION MARK right now. If he was looking so good wouldnt OAK have started hime before they had no choice but to?
Initially I was scared by OAK day record but 4:35 in Motown with the freezing cold isnt exactly DAY BASEBALL IMO...so I am overlooking that.I was suprised that against HArden the very RH lineup of DET was 15 for 38 with 3bbs and 8 Ks...very solid IMO...Last 2 years the only batter to have real success against the Gambler was Payton but he was 0-6 this year after a 7-11 last season. Kendall is a solid 6 for 20 and the Big Hurt who punished kenny back in the day hasnt faced him in 2005 and was 1/4 with a HR this year. So 15-80 for OAK past 2 years vs kenny plus Paytons curious 7/17....I just dont see an edge for Oakland other then Zumaya being hurt.
Rogers had only 3 starts at home where he allowed 4 runs or worse...in 2 of them he went 7 innings and one of those all 4 were unearned....the other was his last start vs LH killing Toronto....otherwise he is 7 innings and 3 runs or less at DETRIOT.
Det 13-4 and 12-4 under with Kenny at home and 8-4 Under in day starts. The A's have faced Johan and Robertson and have produced little on offense in the playoffs. Rich Harden was on a short leash and you dont what the cold weather will do to him...despite being from up North......
Who would u rather be the team playing at home , up 2-0 , with there leader Or being down 2-0 , with an injured SP(less then 100%) and a warm weather team playing in frosty conditions??
Tigers -126 (5x)
Under 8.5 -114 (3x)
Which I am nervous about cause kenny usually had totals of 9 or 9.5...but the weather plays a role......
Under 4 -111 Oakland(1x)
Game II in NY
Okay looking up and down at this game......
Stats arent very useless here as Carpenter did not face NY this season and Maine only once which Pujols put a show on. Tonite STL made switches to Duncan who always plays vs RHP and Spezio who has great away splits.
One thing about 2006 is that Carpenter was not the same shut down SP he normally is. Most ofg his road starts were very average or saw him tire in the 7th and 8th innings allowing some big runs...
How did STL fare after being shutout this season??In happened 8 times they followed the shutouts with :
9,4,6,1,5,6,7,5
Carpenter pitched 3 times the 1-0 win , the 5-1 win and the 6-5 loss which is the last occurence.Now both teams looked crappy at the plate but they also had 4 and 5 days since theer last games...now back to back nites allows a different comfort level.
Carpenter lifetime hasnt had much indivual concern:
Beltran is 4-19 with 2 hrs
Delgado 2-3
Loduca 2/6
Reyes 1/3
The ugly:
Chavez 0/11
Green 0 /8
Valentin 1/15
Wright 0/3 3Ks!
The question is what do we expect from John maine well he did get somewhat lucky his 1st start allwoing just 1 run cause he was hit fairly hard. I think its keys to remember that its likely Darren oliver relieves him if its before the 6th inning.Carpenter may have not been himself on the road this year and he may have thrown a ton of pitches this season but he is ACE in a day where that word has lost its true meaning. So I always expect a big gutsy outing from him come OCTOBER.
Tonite looking at the matchups I think STL has the better lineup with 4 key bats for them ..Pujols , Edmonds , Spezio and Duncan the L3 all LH. For NY obviously reyes, Delgado and Beltran...the later 2 studs only hit 225 at home...Wright could be neutralized facing Carpenter..the trio of Green , Chavez and valentin is 1 for 34 against Carpenter...Know STL as road chalk? Well if John Maine is -140 against Weaver in NY the question from a value standpoint is does the difference bewteen Jeff Weaver and carpenter equal 60 cents or better and I say yes it does probably about 75 cents actually......Maine is an unknown and everyone is down on STL...but me.....
Cardinals -120 (3x)
Over 7.5 +101 (4x)
Over 4 +101 team STL (2x)
Just saw DET won 3-0 so won all plays for +9 units...so basically rolling that over ...
NCAAF-
I just keep looking at Pitt's schedule and amazing how poor the offenses that they played are. You get Virginia at home and a trip to Cincy. You host Toledo with a QB injury and you play the Citadel before traveling to Cuse who fumbled 3 times! They played one decent team and were smoked at home by Mich State before they had started falling to pieces...
UCF can be thrown on...and Palko will but UCF can also move the ball and Kevin Smith is there key as well as not making silly turnovers....Scary but this is Pitts 2nd toughest game IMO.......
Over 47 -109 (2x)
UCF over 18.5 -107 (3x)
UCF +10.5 -107 (3x)
I think the fact UCF finally broke there losing streak is key here as they were so tough at home last season. Plus they get extended rest while Pitt gets the short week with RU on deck.....
Expect both in the 20's and maybe even 30's could be alot of big plays.....
Good Luck!
GL
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