Friday Thoughts


Okay well I took a shot with STL last nite but for the second consecutve nite I was kicking myself for my reluctance to bang the total...So think the past 2 days in baseball has -4 units but Tuesday alone was nearly +15...if I am going to lose I like the way it has been...hit the biggies lose the small ones..


I for one thought the Oakland was desperate to win Game2 at home. After all who wants to go down 2-0 and have to face DET in Motown? Not any reasonable person......Is it me or do people just plain not get it. How can you question Kenny Rogers?? I mean they keep saying he pitched the game of his life...ummm didnt they look at his home starts this year? Didnt they realize the Yanks struggle on the road vs LHP?? The way I see it the GAMBLER did what he did all season. He had one minor poor stretch and then striaghten himself out thru adjustments. He has faced Oakland 6 or 7 times past 2 season which sound results IMO. He beat them twice this year and is the same price he was in OAKLAND vs Saarloos...clearly Harden is better but Harden is one huge QUESTION MARK right now. If he was looking so good wouldnt OAK have started hime before they had no choice but to?


Initially I was scared by OAK day record but 4:35 in Motown with the freezing cold isnt exactly DAY BASEBALL IMO...so I am overlooking that.I was suprised that against HArden the very RH lineup of DET was 15 for 38 with 3bbs and 8 Ks...very solid IMO...Last 2 years the only batter to have real success against the Gambler was Payton but he was 0-6 this year after a 7-11 last season. Kendall is a solid 6 for 20 and the Big Hurt who punished kenny back in the day hasnt faced him in 2005 and was 1/4 with a HR this year. So 15-80 for OAK past 2 years vs kenny plus Paytons curious 7/17....I just dont see an edge for Oakland other then Zumaya being hurt.

Rogers had only 3 starts at home where he allowed 4 runs or worse...in 2 of them he went 7 innings and one of those all 4 were unearned....the other was his last start vs LH killing Toronto....otherwise he is 7 innings and 3 runs or less at DETRIOT.

Det 13-4 and 12-4 under with Kenny at home and 8-4 Under in day starts. The A's have faced Johan and Robertson and have produced little on offense in the playoffs. Rich Harden was on a short leash and you dont what the cold weather will do to him...despite being from up North......


Who would u rather be the team playing at home , up 2-0 , with there leader Or being down 2-0 , with an injured SP(less then 100%) and a warm weather team playing in frosty conditions??


Tigers -126 (5x)

Under 8.5 -114 (3x)

Which I am nervous about cause kenny usually had totals of 9 or 9.5...but the weather plays a role......

Under 4 -111 Oakland(1x)


Game II in NY

Okay looking up and down at this game......

Stats arent very useless here as Carpenter did not face NY this season and Maine only once which Pujols put a show on. Tonite STL made switches to Duncan who always plays vs RHP and Spezio who has great away splits.

One thing about 2006 is that Carpenter was not the same shut down SP he normally is. Most ofg his road starts were very average or saw him tire in the 7th and 8th innings allowing some big runs...

How did STL fare after being shutout this season??In happened 8 times they followed the shutouts with :
9,4,6,1,5,6,7,5

Carpenter pitched 3 times the 1-0 win , the 5-1 win and the 6-5 loss which is the last occurence.Now both teams looked crappy at the plate but they also had 4 and 5 days since theer last games...now back to back nites allows a different comfort level.

Carpenter lifetime hasnt had much indivual concern:
Beltran is 4-19 with 2 hrs
Delgado 2-3
Loduca 2/6
Reyes 1/3
The ugly:
Chavez 0/11
Green 0 /8
Valentin 1/15
Wright 0/3 3Ks!

The question is what do we expect from John maine well he did get somewhat lucky his 1st start allwoing just 1 run cause he was hit fairly hard. I think its keys to remember that its likely Darren oliver relieves him if its before the 6th inning.Carpenter may have not been himself on the road this year and he may have thrown a ton of pitches this season but he is ACE in a day where that word has lost its true meaning. So I always expect a big gutsy outing from him come OCTOBER.

Tonite looking at the matchups I think STL has the better lineup with 4 key bats for them ..Pujols , Edmonds , Spezio and Duncan the L3 all LH. For NY obviously reyes, Delgado and Beltran...the later 2 studs only hit 225 at home...Wright could be neutralized facing Carpenter..the trio of Green , Chavez and valentin is 1 for 34 against Carpenter...Know STL as road chalk? Well if John Maine is -140 against Weaver in NY the question from a value standpoint is does the difference bewteen Jeff Weaver and carpenter equal 60 cents or better and I say yes it does probably about 75 cents actually......Maine is an unknown and everyone is down on STL...but me.....

Cardinals -120 (3x)
Over 7.5 +101 (4x)
Over 4 +101 team STL (2x)

Just saw DET won 3-0 so won all plays for +9 units...so basically rolling that over ...

NCAAF-

I just keep looking at Pitt's schedule and amazing how poor the offenses that they played are. You get Virginia at home and a trip to Cincy. You host Toledo with a QB injury and you play the Citadel before traveling to Cuse who fumbled 3 times! They played one decent team and were smoked at home by Mich State before they had started falling to pieces...

UCF can be thrown on...and Palko will but UCF can also move the ball and Kevin Smith is there key as well as not making silly turnovers....Scary but this is Pitts 2nd toughest game IMO.......


Over 47 -109 (2x)
UCF over 18.5 -107 (3x)
UCF +10.5 -107 (3x)

I think the fact UCF finally broke there losing streak is key here as they were so tough at home last season. Plus they get extended rest while Pitt gets the short week with RU on deck.....
Expect both in the 20's and maybe even 30's could be alot of big plays.....

Good Luck!
GL