NCAAF


Noon Starts:

- Decided that with Kafka not returning it was best to downgrade Northwestern to 1x from 3x.
- Army +4.5 -110 (1x) & ML +172(1x)
- Iowa -17.5 -110 (3x) will hedge at least 2x
- NCST -2.5 -115(3x)
- Syracuse +25.5 -108 (1x) & Over 48.5 -110 (1x)
- Under 50.5 -102 Wisconsin (1x) waiting though
- Oklahoma -19.5 -105 (1x)
- Navy -2.5 -110 (7x)
- West Michigan +3.5 -115 (3x)
- Oklahoma State +3.5 -120 (5x)
- Tulsa -2-110(1x)
- Texas A&M +2-101 (5x) ML +109(1x)
- Virginia +3.5 -115(3x)
- Colorado +7.5 -120 (1x)
- Michigan State +14.5 -105 (1x)
- Under 52 -105 Oregon (2x)
- E. Mich +11 -105 (2x)
- Wash St +9 -110 (5x)
Lean - Hawaii -4
- Oregon State +10 (1x)

Night
-Lean to Baylor +26.5 , SoMiss -2 , Ill -6 , Ov 40.5 Miami, Over 50 LSU
-Kansas St +10.5 -115 (3x)

Auburn +2 -105 (12x)

Penn State +6 -110 (3x) and Under 41 -110 (3x)

Thats it so far......Questions or comments.......GL

- Really like Northwestern finally returning home getting a team in Purdue coming off games @ ND and Iowa. Purdue will be w/o WR Lymon and I dont like there defense enough to cover a TD chalk in a conference road game. You might say what has the Wildcats done? Thats true and Kafka is out again which scares me. I think there defense has been better then adequate but it games @ Wisky and Penn State its just a matter if time before the defense tires and gets walked on..which seemed to happen in both games recently. The Boliermakers gave up alot of points to some less then flattering teams at home so maybe even Northwestren can show a pulse on offense...basic situation play...

- It just seems that UConn was given much more respect this season they desereved. Being pegged as home favs vs Navy and Wake they lost both SU and have now switched QB's. They played @ Indiana and did not svore on offense. They have owned Army which is a concern but it still looks like enoughg peopel havent caught on to how bad the Huskies have turned out. Army always seems to bark as a dog and put up 62 against VMI last week...Army putting up 62 versus anyone is northworthy...so I'll ride Ross boys as a dog and hope for the best. Uconn as a team has been awful for consecutive weeks following consecutive awful performances on offense vs Indiana and Wake. If your not sure how a team can score its tough to justify laying points with them IMO.

- I hopped on Iowa early after last weeks thrashing off Purdue thinking this should have been 3 TDS. To my suprise everyone agrees. Well its getting awful close to 20 and I might just middle it or two units of it tmrw when it breaks 20. Iowa still has to show consistency and Wisky just a few back thrashed Indiana but only laid 10 in that game..plus the Hoosiers had a huge road win and could be sharper at home...so a play I am on but not recomending as I will hedge it.

- NCST just really love this spot and play at a FG. The Wolfpack managed to hangaround vs BC and make some plays late...it was a rather lucky win. However turn the page and they trailed all nite vs FSU but out played them in the 4th quarter which is different then a team just shooting themselves in the foot constantly. Huge edge in 3 straight at home. Evans look sto be the real deal making some impressive throws vs FSU. I do think Wake will be flat after theer 4thq collapse vs Clemson...24 points in the 4th! There offense has been lackluster all year and expect the same...could be a 5 unit play possibly...

- Just took a shot on the Orangeman hanging around. This line seems awful high for a team off flat road performances. Maryland was only +17 and i dont see much differrence bewteen the two. So thinking Cuse can make WV work for the points and score 14 ++ here..total is now 50.5 though

- Just dont like the Iowa State eoffense and see it putting up 14 points here. OU will look to bounce back versus an inferior opponent and expect a 21-24 pt win..


- The Minnesota offense struggled IMO in home games vs Michigan and Penn State would expect the same thinking 31-17...

- All year I havent believed in navy but I look game by game and see a much tougher slate then RU's. Who I am also convinced is overrated and faded @ USF. the RU offense is all about the ground game and Navy will slow them there forcing Teel to beat them....Navy destroyed RU two years back in this meeting and I have feeling they cruise...

- WMU is getting a good spot here with Northern Illini playing 3 rd straight away. Think WMU defense is solid and Northern is swiss cheese...


- Really shocked that Ok St was a FG dog here at one point expected worse case a PK game. Kansas seems good enough to keep it close but not good enough to win.. Think OSU was penalized for losing to KSU...its tough to win on the road and sometimes the dif bewteen being -2 and getting +2...makes or breaks you...interesting to see if Meier plays what type of rythym he can produce .

just some comments for the early stuff.....and A&M should read + 2-101.....

Stuff regarding my AUBURN play . I said all along it was a bad line....some people agree...

Question: What were the deciding factors that made Auburn the favorite over Florida this week? Also, how much more value will Arkansas carry now that they`ve knocked off a top SEC team?

Answer: I guess that if Auburn would have beaten Arkansas last week, I wouldn’t even have received this question. Anyway, Auburn has a high rated home-field rating and remember that the Tigers closed a 13-point favorite over the Razorbacks. This year at home, Auburn did hold LSU to three points and beat up on Washington State and by the way, Florida has gone to the favorite. As for Arkansas, they played up to their preseason hype versus Auburn. Remember that the Razorbacks are led by a freshman at quarterback who is still going through growing pains. Mustain had a dismal performance against the Tide but Arkansas was still able to prevail. Against Auburn, Arkansas relied on their defense and running game as Mustain just threw the ball 10 times (completed 7 for 87 yards with 1 TD and no interceptions). Let’s put Arkansas in the “momentum” category for now.


Covers Expert Steve Merril has some interesting thoughts. "It didn`t last long as Florida is now a 1-point road favorite," Merril says. "The results last week have obviously affected this line as Auburn would have been at least a 4-point favorite before last week. Arkansas will definitely not carry `more value` now. The exact opposite is true as the upset win will cause their power ratings to rise and there will actually be less value with Arkansas.

Just thought some who doubt my value logic would like to read this



The schedule for today says-

The clean version:

Auburn +2 -105 (12x)

There are more then a few comemnts in my thread about how this is the perfect situational play. Auburn off a bad home loss while Florida 'upset" LSU and the public at home last week. Making a game that IMO should have been Auburn -3 a +2 home dog. Auburn will shutdown the running game off FLA and make Leak and Tebow beat them. I actually dont believe Tebow will get many chances today...


Navy -2.5 -110 (7x)

You look at what Navy has accomplished nd compare that to RU and you have to be impressed. RU was lucky to win @ USF while Navy dismantled UConn and Stanford on the road. RU is getting way tomuch credit for beating Illinois , Ohio U and UNC early whne linesmakers undervalued them.. Navy will run on them and RU will struggle to run the ball meaning Teel and his 14 INT to 4 TD rati will have to make a play...and remember Tucker is OUT so the WRs are thin and he has to rely more on his TE.

5x Plays

Texas A&M +2 -102(also ML +109 1x)
Oklahoma State +3.5 -120
Wash State +9 -110


3xPlays

Kansas State +10.5 -110
Penn State +6 -110
Under 41 -110 Penn State
Virginia +3.5 -115
NCState -2.5 -115
Baylor will be want better then 27

2x Plays

West Michigan +3.5 -115
Eastern mich +11 -108
Under 52 -105 Oregon

1x Plays
Oregon State -110
Mich State +14.5 -105
Colorado +7.5 -120 (shot in the dark)
Tulsa -2-110
Oklahoma -19.5 -108
Under 51 -108 Wisky
Cuse +25.5 -105
Over 48.5 -110 Cuse
Army +4.5 -110 & ML +174
Northwestern +7.5 -110


Middled(3x each side)

Iowa -17.5 and Indiana +20.5-110(each way)


Team Totals (all 1x unless noted)
Over 11.5 -108 Cuse
Under 20.5 -111 Minnesota
Over 17.5-105 Army
under 17.5 -107 Wake Forest
Over 19.5 -108 East Mich +100
Over 30.5 -111 SJST (2x)
Over 10.5 -108 Baylor
Over 38.5 +100 LSU
Over 33.5 -108 Miami
Under 23.5 -120 Michigan

Good Luck the leans are still the same


Baseball

Oakland ML +166 (4x) & ARL +270 (1x)

Personally and some will disagree this line is inflated. One could make an arguement that the books needed a big number to get Oakland dough here. I just feel that its been OAK money all series and the books have to be happy with DET being up 3-0 here. I dont think they needed to trick the betting public. I do think they realized they could jack up the DET ML and still get an even flow. Thats my opinion


Regardless of what the series is , I had liked Haren in this spot. Its true haren does struggle more with RHB . However his key and Oaklands seems to be this:

Haren has a 3.09 Day ERA , 0.97 WHIP and .206 BAA
Oakland is 43-22 day and 116-68 L3 years in Day games
Oak is 72-52 vs RHP and hit Verlander but not the 2 LHP.


Bonderman has trouble with LHB's as they stroke 284 off hime with a1.55 WHIP. This year day starts were rough and you can see the ugliness this has been a career long problem for Jeremy 12-21 with an ERA above 5 .Bradley and Cahvez are a combined 10-25 off Jeremy both other LH's Kotsay and Swisher not so much luck 2- 21. Payton is 3-4 career in clearly limted abs. I have mentioned already how well most A's hit in the day games.......Against Haren not suprisingly the key bats are Polanco and Pudge who are 9 of 22. Basically dismissing situation I really dont understand why this would be -140 or -150 let alone -175. I wish this line could keep rising but it has since backed off could have had OAK @ =169 at one time now just +162...

Over 7.5 +103 (5x)Both teams hit RHP well or better I should say better then LHP ..... A number that is very low IMO....for an AL playoff game...look at what the Game 2 score was RH vs RH..Not sure but I think the weather was slightly better ....Cant see an 8.5 then a 7.5...


Night game :

The Night game....

Cardinals -124 (5x)
Under 9.5 -113 (3x)

I guess my feeling is we get Suppan cheap here. Couple starting points for me were STL laying -110 when Suppan opposed Glavine early May . Going back to Sept 2005 Suppan faced Traschel laying -160. Now clearly I dont think 160 is fair but 140 is IMO. While StL has taken a step back generally Suppan struggled in the old Busch which is not so this year. The Mets have improved from last season but Traschel hasnt. So really to me -140 is fair in this matchup...


Suppan allowed 6 hits and 4 unis in 6 + innings early this year. Suppan didnt turn it around till the break so 1st half starts cant be weighed heavily IMO. Since the break his ERA is 2.39 with a 6-2 record in 15 starts and solid 1.28 WHIP. Now in his career he has pitched well against NY allowing only10 runs (9er) in 35 2/3 innings vs NY and a 3-1 record across 6 starts. This year at home he is 7-2 witha 3.18 ERA , 1.28WHIp , .246 BAA. His nite splits and numbesr vs LHP are less then flattering but remember its been a tale of 2 season...overal numbers dont do him justice. Just like I said his home ERA is 3.18 its much better then that in the 2nd Half and he has gone deep into games 7++.


Against NY's lineup he has done well indivually:

Delgado 6 /29 10 bbs
Beltran 2/11
Green 3/24
Wright 1/4
Loduca 6/16
Reyes 2/6
Endy 5 /14
Valentin 12 /48

So it appears Suppan can keep NY in check. Factor in StL 36-16 L52 at Home vs RHP...

Traschel pitches better on the road then at home. He probably pitched his best game in a 1-0 loss @ STL vs Mulder in May. Actually he struggles more with RHB this year .306 and 1.72 WHIP...

Indivually he has done a good job keeping the Cards in check. Only Pujols at 5/14 with NO Hrs is having success.

Belliard 5/22
Eck 2/10
Edmonds 2/12
Encarnacion 4/24 but would start Preston Wilson if I was LaRussa(8/20 3 Hrs)
Yadier 1/7
Duncan 0/2
Spezio 1/7 or Rolen 10/41
Suppan 2/6 HR

So Traschel does well keeping the cards off balance as well. Thats a good reason to expect fairly solid starts from both. So the 9.5 total is overreaction to yesterday as I think 9 was correct and has precedent.


GL