Sunday NFL

Kansas City Cheifs +7.5 -120 (3x)

We see that Pittsburgh has lost three straight and really is desperate here. A scary situation to be fading the home squad. I do have reasons though. First Big Ben is just not right and you can tell by his TD to INT ratio..clue he has zero TD passes and 7 Ints. Huard has done a good job protecting the ball with no Ints and 5 Td passes.

Injuries are starting to become an issue for Pitt. Already missing Colon on the OL it appears Kendal Simmons (RG) will sit out. The secondary already without Colcough will miss starting corner Deshea Townshend. The LB crew will be w/o JoeyPorter and his backup Harrison. Certainly not good news when you face an offense that is about running the ball and throwing to its TE.

Pittsburghhas done a good job shutting down RB's but opposing QB's have been able to throw the ball agaisnt them. Culpepper and Leftwich both managed 260 but no Td passes( 3ints). Then Palmer had only 190 yards but 4 TDS and last week Rivers came out his shell for 240 yards. With how Huard has played poised you would expect he should play fairly well. The OL was a concern last week but it looks like Turley will play as he has praticed. LJ appears okay after the facemask play and is part of the passing game as well. One sure spot is Dante Hall might miss here and we know the type of weapon is he.

Had to think that even the smell of desperation wont keep KC from continuing to play solid defense. Leinart had a big play to Boldin and some late yardage that came in prevent defense. Edge had 24 c 71yds. Earlier @ Denver they allowed 29c 113 yds to the Bell boyz. They really played well @ Denver and have every game since the flat opener which the D did show up.

My guess is at this time the line should be Pitt -4.5 not any higher . Arnold Harrison will start in Porter's place his first and his backup wil be Rian Wallace who never played LB in an NFL game. Also Pitt signed Chad Brown who wil be getting a crash course and be in the mix. You just wonder what type of shape he is in.

San Fran 49ers +10.5 -110 (3x)

I 'll agree that SD is very good. However are they better then Philly won was -6 @ SF? I dont think so. There was an interesting point in that PHI game as well. Eagles jumped out on SF early with some big plays just aboutto make it 24-10 the 49ers fumbled on the 1 and saw Mike Patterson RUMBLE the distance the other way...making there 24-10 game 31-3...which SF then scored 2 fairly quick TDs to make it 31-17 ...would it have worked out the same if Philly hadnt forced the fumble and SF scored? Meaning would it have been 24 up at one point?? We cant answer that. It shows you SF can move the ball versus a good defense and has heart. SD tends to be conservative and the fact they were on national TV beating Pitt defeinetly juiced this line up IMO. There arent many key injuries to speak of. Well SF will be w/o 2 OL jennings and Allen but there replacements have looked fine. Vernon Davis is out but Eric Johnson is capable. One that is the key though is Walt Harris. SF has been happy with its corner play but not its safety play and talked with Troy Vincent. The loss of Harris is tough to weigh IF he misses . he has played well and its interesting SF nickel back who would start is non other then ex Charger Sammy Davis!! He could be looing to show his old mates something as well as be familiar with some of the routes. If Harris is inactive its possible SF could activate former NFL Europe star BJ Tucker.

I just see SD being to big a chalk here and having to dominante from start to finish to cover which is tough on the road. SD is known for there RUN defense which makes this more interesting since SF needs Gore to play well. SF has managed at least 20 points in every game outside of the shutout @ KC and spanked fellow bottomfeeder Oakland last week. I just maintain that SF has changed its culture and makes for a tough game @ Home...see how well they played aginst TB ,NYG and Indy last year.. They have had trouble slowing the RUn which is obviously SDs game plan with Turner and LT.

Miami Dolphins +3 -120 (8x) ML +119 (2x)

Many of you dont know me very well but I am value guy who likes playing bad lines. This was a bad line IMO. While Miami has fallen way short o expecttaions the NYJ had exceeded them before Jax. However there is no reason why this game is NOT a PKEM. We just saw Miami switch QBs and catch 9 @ NE. If not for some poor turnovers and missed opps on offense it could have been an upset. NY hosted NE catching 6 and was dead for most of the game getting embarrassed. That was until Jerricho cotchery amde his highlight TD catch o run. Not sure what to call it....you know when he got tackled , rolled over on the defender but never got touched down. That sparked the Jets and the crowd from a 24-0 defecit. I hate fading a team coming back from a shutout on the road. However I really like how this Miami defense has played. New Yorks defense is very inconsistent and Ronnie brown should have no trouble running on them. Now NY will struggle to run leaving this on Chad Pennington once again and his star WR is less then 100%.

How good is the Miami D? Its solid and 17 of the 20 NE points came off turnovers andthe other FG followed a Miami missed FG. The Pats TD drives lasted all of 5 plays and 34 yards that how good of field position they were spotted. The bad part is versus a NE defense much tougher then NY but Miami had 2 missed FG's and 2 fumbles and 2 picks! Whats key here is Ronnie Nrown needs a breakout game and NY is basically allowing every team to just run all overthem...check the numbers...NY avs 3.2 yards per carry and Miami allows 2.9 per carry. Which again makes this Penningtons game...Hate the 3rd staright road spot for Miami but the defense is just to goood IMO...

Thinking Arizona and Denver in the other games.

The 1 PM's

Skins -10 -115 (4x)
1st H -6.5 -123 (2x)

We have a few injuries here. First lets remember Tenny had all of 60 yards passing and whatever offense came last week came on the ground(200ydz +). Skins held Jags to 15c and 33 rushing yards. Tenny has been without David Givens and Bennett is questionable in addition to Kinney being done for the year. White has been battling the flu(brown is already out)and there Kicker Bironas has a sore groin. On the OL Pillar is already out and Olsen is questionable.

Bottomline is I dont see much if any offense from Tenny. This line is at least 3 points lower if last week doesnt happen the way it did Skins will score in the twenties...Huge fact is Tenny also playing 4th road game in 5 weeks after a heartbreaking loss for a young team...

skins should get Springs back but lost there starting DT's but have some depth at that spot.

Seahawks buy -2.5 -110 (now6x from 4x)

I am impressed with STL but not buying into that much. They needed QB fumbles inside the last minute to preserve wins @ Arizona and @ GB. They played a shootout vs DET at home and lost @ SF! Oh yeah they beat Denver which gave them 6 short fields and they still maanged only 6 FGs. They have 2 banged up corners which means Hill has to start and they lost Witherspoon @ LB to injury last week. This offense looked good only vs DET IMO.


Throwing stats and trends out the window here as I just think STL is overrated now. Line is where it should be IMO. going to look for improvement in Seattle and those 3 WR sets should cause havoc with a team shorthanded@ CB. Witherspoon loss is probably irreplacable.

Saints +3.5 -110 (4x)

Stats thrown out the window here. Like NO in the spot after Phillys GOY. The Saints can be run on BUT Westbrook still appears less then 100% and Stallworth is OUT. I thought Philly was really lucky with some poor safety play but NO lost a safety this week (Stoutmire will start). philly secondary still banged up some. Thought this game should have beem closer to a PK(like -1.5 PHI). Philly has been successful throwing the ball and Saints only allowing about a 150 per game. The atmosphere always seems to be insane now.

The running duo of Deuce and Bush are making it happen. SF an Hosuton arent exactly tests

Bucs +5.5 -110 (4x) & Cincy -4-108 (1x) got nervous

Cincy is banged up on there OL and @ WR. There LB crew is depleted to say the least and Dexter Jackson is out again. TB will pound cadillac and the other backs and let Gradkowski manage the game. Palmer has struggled with mobility taking sacks and turning the ball over with fumbles and INTS.

Not sure after Rudi struggled @ Pitt they will establish a running game here.


Whats going on this morning??



Probably most comfortable with seattle and Washington but being cautious could bump to 5x though.


The rest:

Lions ML +108 (2x)

I cant recommend going nutz backing a banged up winless team facing a team lead by a former coach. However how is this team a dog here? The injuries are a concern but the OL seems okay . Buffalo does a great job competing but they still lack talent in some areas. DET all but dominanted Minnesota in the dome as 6.5 pt dogs were as Buff hosted Minny as -1 and won 17-12. We all recall how DET lost that game last week...2 defensive scores in the final minutes.

You cant say Jauron has much of an edge with Kitna now QB' in this team. Lions have been good against the run and shredded vs the pass. Well thats good news since What you talking bout Willis is there RB and there key offensive weapon. Sorry the Bills lost to the J-E-T-S in Buffalo. They did a nice job as big dogs sneaking up up on conference foes NE and Miami. This isnt conference play , they are big dogs and they have to find someone other then Lee Evans who Dre Bly will blanket to make plays. I actually dont have a problem with Losman at QB...its just Price , Parrish , and Josh Reed have not shown me much. They get Takeo Spikes back but as much as a difference maker he is ...his health level is unknown.

Game IMO should be DET -2.5...Also 2 struggling offenses against average defenses seems to make me think 40.5 is high for this game...possible UNDER play here.

Dallas -12 -110 (2x)

I dont see value in Houston. First there offense hasnt done much. We see they put up 24 USELESS 4th Q points at Indy. Otherwise tehy havent topped 17 and I dont think they do so today. The Dallas D has alot more swagger at home and I think it plays like an ELITE unit at home. You will not run on Dallas and that means they can tee off on Carr and the OL. Think about WASH w/o Portis and realize that Houstons defense wont play as well as WASH...thinking 28-10 here. Also this line looks high but it isnt. Hous was +6 at home vs Philly which turns into -13 on the road. Even though Dallas lost @ Philly I think Dallas is about 2 pts stronger..making -15 fair IMO. After a bad loss DALLAS will respond remember how they dismantled Tenny...thats what Dallas can do....beat up on bad teams..

Remember HOUSTON D allowed 515 yards to Indy.

Giants +3.5 -120 (now3x from 2x)

NY has a tough schedule which can only make them better. Who has ATL played? Carolina w/o Smith , TB in the midst of its struggles , ARI @ home and might have lost if Warner didnt literally give the game away. Oh and they got smoked in NO. NY has not allowed backs to run on them and has had poor pass defense. Well that goes against ATL strengths. IF ATL cant run how will they score?? Even with 32 against Zona mostly gift points this team looks like 17 points is a ceiling.

If you can explain to me how ATL will score please do so...

Still looking at Carolina @ Balt and the U33.5 there.Might entertain the UNDER...wanted 43 though.

More-

Totals

Under 41 -107 Bills (1x)
Under 47 -105 NO (1x)
Under 33.5 -104 Balt (2x)

Team Totals

Under 15 -120 Tenny (1x)
Over 24 -103 Seattle (1x)
Under 26 -111 SD (1x)

TEASER
Skins -11.5 , Broncos -14 and Dallas -13 (3x) 10pt teaser